July 2015 Modeling and Data Working Group FEMA Lab and Analytics Workshop

July 2015

Modeling and Data Working GroupFEMA Lab and Analytics Workshop

FEMA Analytics BriefJuly 2015

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Understand how data and models are used by the federal interagency emergency management community

Identify and characterize the data and models used to inform emergency operations: hurricanes, earthquakes, INDs

Perform network analysis to define gaps and identify linkages

Build an interactive inventory cataloging the resources

Develop decision support tools to translate event characterization and consequence analyses into operational requirements

The MDWG project


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Results overview


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Natural disaster resource networks


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Network bridges: Natural disasters


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Bulk flow of information


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Most used resources

Resources with the most federal agency usersResources Users Hazards Resource Types Descriptions

EAGLE-I 10 All-Hazards situational awareness data Monitors, aggregates, and displays energy system data

HSIP 10 All-Hazards raw data Critical infrastructure and key resource data

SLOSH 10 Hurricane event characterization models/analysis Estimates storm surge heights

Turbo FRMAC 10 IND consequence model; decision support tool CBRNE assessment data analysis

HPAC 9 INDevent characterization models/analysis; consequence model

Models CBRNE atmospheric dispersion and impacts

HAZUS 9 Multi-Hazard consequence model Estimates economic impacts of select natural disasters

NHC Forecasts 9 Hurricane situational awareness data Predicts hurricane intensity and track


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Project findings and gaps

1. Lack of operations-focused resources Consequence modeling output libraries Rapid-run models with outputs designed for operations

Would provide decision support and concrete mission specific requirements

2. Operations-focused resources poorly connected to real-time event data

3. Lack of emergency response modeling for operations


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The ESFLG Model and Data Inventory

Inventory currently hosted on an internal FEMA server

Hosting on an external FEMA site in progress

Code can be emailed and launched locally

Goal of inventory: Discovery tool for steady-state planning Real-time RFIs for events


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Keeping the inventory useful

Utility of the Resource Inventory: Additional scenarios: flood , biological, cyber

Robust, on-going hosting and maintenance

Interagency access

Use during exercises: Train around the resources available


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Data and models for operations: ESF-specific decision support tools


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Decision support tools for ESF-specific missions

Operationally relevant calculations

Simple, easy-to-use, and tailored for operational users

Linking calculations for each ESF to a single set of inputs/assumptions

Testing a tool for FEMA-specific ESF #6 and ESF #7 requirements


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DST for ESF #6 and ESF#7: in beta


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Unified inputs: Affected Population


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Unified inputs: Distribution Centers


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ESF #6: Mass Care Outputs


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ESF #7: Logistics Outputs


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Courses of action and next steps

Develop real-time operational consequence and response modeling/analysis tools May be available through national labs Involve operations personnel in development

Develop decision support tools that translate the existing data into operationally-relevant information

Expand the inventory to include additional hazards

Flood, biological scenarios, cyber


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Points of contact

Ellie Graeden, PhDGryphon [email protected] (cell)

Josh Dozor, MDWG ChairDirector, Planning DivisionFEMA Response [email protected]

Eric Soucie, Project LeadFuture PlanningFEMA Response DirectorateEric. [email protected]

Documents

July 2015 Modeling and Data Working Group FEMA Lab and Analytics Workshop