KAZAKH GRAIN EXPORTsunseedman.weebly.com/uploads/3/1/9/7/31970037/... · over 85% of global soybean exports, canada, ukraine and australia performed over 90% of global rapeseed exports,

GLOBAL MARKET OF OILSEEDS

AND VEGETABLE OILS:

TRENDS & PROSPECTS OF

2019/20 SEASON.

KAZAKH POSITIONS ON THE

GLOBAL MARKET.

19/20 SEPTEMBER 2019, Istanbul/TURKEY

KAZAKH GRAIN EXPORT 2019

AGENDA

1- OILSEEDS MARKETS GLOBALLY

2– VEGOILS MARKETS GLOBALLY

3- KAZAKH ROLE IN GLOBAL OILSEEDS AND VEGOILS

4– 2019/20 NEW-SEASON PROSPECTS

5- PRESENTATION SUMMARY

OILSEEDS MARKETS

GLOBALLY

IN 2018/19 SEASON;

WORLD OILSEEDS OUTPUT WAS RECORD AROUND

585 MLN T.( 17/18, 565 )

HOWEVER, BY 18/19 SEASON,THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF ALL OILSEEDS

WAS LOWER THAN WHEAT AND EVEN THE HALF OF CORN.

- CORN, record 1.12 MLRD T ( 17/18, 1.08 ),

- WHEAT, 730 MLN T ( 17/18, 765 ),

- OILSEEDS, record 585 MLN T ( 17/18, 565 ),

- RICE, 500 MLN T ( 17/18, 495 ).

SOYBEAN WAS

THE LOCOMOTIVE

OF THE OILSEEDS WITH OVER

60% SHARE.

IN 2018/19 SEASON, MAJOR OILSEEDS’ OUTPUTS;

- SOYBEAN, record 365 MLN T ( 17/18, 341.5 ),

- RAPESEED, 67 MLN T ( 17/18, 70.5 ),

- SUNSEED, record 52.75 MLN T ( 17/18, 49.3 ),

- COTTONSEED, 43.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 44 ).

IN 2018/19 SEASON,

USA, BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA PERFORMED

OVER 80% OF GLOBAL SOYBEAN OUTPUT,

CANADA AND EU-28 PERFORMED

OVER 60% OF GLOBAL RAPESEED OUTPUT,

UKRAINE AND RUSSIA PERFORMED

OVER 50% OF GLOBAL SUNSEED OUTPUT,

INDIA AND CHINA PERFORMED

AROUND 50% OF GLOBAL COTTONSEED OUTPUT.

IN 2018/19 SEASON;

WORLD OILSEEDS CRUSHINGS WERE RECORD AROUND

485 MLN T.( 17/18, 480 )

SOYBEAN WAS ONCE

THE LOCOMOTIVE


60% SHARE.

IN 2018/19 SEASON, MAJOR OILSEEDS’ CRUSHINGS;

- SOYBEAN, record 305 MLN T ( 17/18, 300 ),

- RAPESEED, 65 MLN T ( 17/18, 66 ),

- SUNSEED, record 47.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 45 ),

- COTTONSEED, 32.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 33 ).

IN 2018/19 SEASON,

USA, BRAZIL, ARGENTINA AND CHINA PERFORMED

OVER 75% OF GLOBAL SOYBEAN CRUSHINGS,

EU-28 AND CANADA PERFORMED

OVER 50% OF GLOBAL RAPESEED CRUSHINGS,


AROUND 55% OF GLOBAL SUNSEED CRUSHINGS,

INDIA AND CHINA PERFORMED

AROUND 55% OF GLOBAL COTTONSEED CRUSHINGS.

IN 2018/19 SEASON;

WORLD OILSEEDS EXPORTS WERE RECORD AROUND

175 MLN T.( 17/18, 170 )

SOYBEAN WAS ONCE

THE LOCOMOTIVE


85% SHARE.

IN 2018/19 SEASON, MAJOR OILSEEDS’ EXPORTS;


- RAPESEED, 15 MLN T ( 17/18, 16 ),

- SUNSEED, record 3 MLN T ( 17/18, 2.5 ),

- COTTONSEED, 850 KMT ( 17/18, 900 ).

IN 2018/19 SEASON,

BRAZIL, USA AND ARGENTINA PERFORMED

OVER 85% OF GLOBAL SOYBEAN EXPORTS,

CANADA, UKRAINE AND AUSTRALIA PERFORMED

OVER 90% OF GLOBAL RAPESEED EXPORTS,

MOLDOVA, CHINA, EU-28 AND KAZAKHSTAN PERFORMED

AROUND 70% OF GLOBAL SUNSEED EXPORTS,

USA, IVORY COAST AND AUSTRALIA PERFORMED

AROUND 75% OF GLOBAL COTTONSEED EXPORTS.

IN 2018/19 SEASON;

WORLD OILSEEDS IMPORTS WERE RECORD AROUND

175 MLN T.( 17/18, 170 )

SOYBEAN WAS ONCE

THE LOCOMOTIVE


85% SHARE.

IN 2018/19 SEASON, MAJOR OILSEEDS’ IMPORTS;


- RAPESEED, 15 MLN T ( 17/18, 16 ),

- SUNSEED, record 3 MLN T ( 17/18, 2.5 ),

- COTTONSEED, 850 KMT ( 17/18, 900 ).

IN 2018/19 SEASON,

CHINA AND EU-28 PERFORMED

OVER 65% OF GLOBAL SOYBEAN IMPORTS,

EU-28, CHINA, JAPAN AND MEXICO PERFORMED

AROUND 80% OF GLOBAL RAPESEED IMPORTS,

TURKEY AND EU-28 PERFORMED

AROUND 70% OF GLOBAL SUNSEED IMPORTS,

SOUTH KOREA, MALI, CHINA AND MEXICO PERFORMED

AROUND 60% OF GLOBAL COTTONSEED IMPORTS.

VEGOILS MARKETS

GLOBALLY

IN 2018/19 SEASON;

WORLD VEGOILS OUTPUT WAS RECORD AROUND

206.5 MLN T.( 17/18, 202 )

PALMOIL AND SOYOIL WERE

THE LOCOMOTIVES

OF THE VEGOILS WITH

36 & 27 %SHARES RECPECTIVELY.

IN 2018/19 SEASON, MAJOR VEGOILS’ OUTPUTS;

- PALMOIL, record 76.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 72 ),

- SOYOIL, record 56.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 56 ),

- RAPEOIL, 25.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 25.75 ),

- SUNOIL, record 20.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 19 ).

IN 2018/19 SEASON,

INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA PERFORMED

AROUND 85% OF GLOBAL PALMOIL OUTPUT,

CHINA, USA, BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA PERFORMED

OVER 75% OF GLOBAL SOYOIL OUTPUT,

EU-28, CANADA, CHINA AND INDIA PERFORMED

AROUND 80% OF GLOBAL RAPEOIL OUTPUT,


AROUND 60% OF GLOBAL SUNOIL OUTPUT.

IN 2018/19 SEASON;

WORLD VEGOILS CONSUMPTIONS WERE

RECORD AROUND

206.5 MLN T.( 17/18, 200 )

PALMOIL AND SOYOIL WERE

THE LOCOMOTIVES

OF THE VEGOILS WITH

37 & 27 %SHARES RECPECTIVELY.

IN 2018/19 SEASON, MAJOR VEGOILS’ CONSUMPTIONS;

- PALMOIL, record 75 MLN T ( 17/18, 72 ),

- SOYOIL, record 56.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 55.5 ),

- RAPEOIL, 25.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 26 ),


IN 2018/19 SEASON,

INDONESIA, INDIA, EU-28 AND CHINA PERFORMED

AROUND 50% OF GLOBAL PALMOIL CONSUMPTION,

CHINA, USA, BRAZIL AND INDIA PERFORMED

AROUND 70% OF GLOBAL SOYOIL CONSUMPTION,

EU-28, CHINA, INDIA AND USA PERFORMED

AROUND 80% OF GLOBAL RAPEOIL CONSUMPTION,

EU-28, INDIA AND RUSSIA PERFORMED

AROUND 50% OF GLOBAL SUNOIL CONSUMPTION.

IN 2018/19 SEASON;

WORLD VEGOILS EXPORTS WERE RECORD AROUND

89 MLN T.( 17/18, 83.5 )

PALMOIL WAS

THE LOCOMOTIVE

OF THE VEGOILS WITH AROUND

60% SHARE.

IN 2018/19 SEASON, MAJOR VEGOILS’ EXPORTS;




- RAPEOIL, 5.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 5 ).

IN 2018/19 SEASON,

INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA PERFORMED

AROUND 90% OF GLOBAL PALMOIL EXPORTS,

ARGENTINA PERFORMED

AROUND 45% OF GLOBAL SOYOIL EXPORTS,


OVER 75% OF GLOBAL SUNOIL EXPORTS,

CANADA PERFORMED

OVER 60% OF GLOBAL RAPEOIL EXPORTS.

IN 2018/19 SEASON;

WORLD VEGOILS IMPORTS WERE RECORD AROUND

88.5 MLN T.( 17/18, 83.0 )

PALMOIL WAS

THE LOCOMOTIVE

OF THE VEGOILS WITH AROUND

60% SHARE.

IN 2018/19 SEASON, MAJOR VEGOILS’ IMPORTS;




- RAPEOIL, 5.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 5 ).

IN 2018/19 SEASON,

INDIA, EU-28 AND CHINA PERFORMED

AROUND 45% OF GLOBAL PALMOIL IMPORTS,

INDIA, BANGLADESH AND CHINA PERFORMED

AROUND 45% OF GLOBAL SOYOIL IMPORTS,

INDIA, EU-28 AND CHINA PERFORMED

AROUND 50% OF GLOBAL SUNOIL IMPORTS,

USA AND CHINA PERFORMED

AROUND 65% OF GLOBAL RAPEOIL IMPORTS.

KAZAKH ROLE IN GLOBAL OILSEEDS

AND VEGOILS

IN 2018/19 SEASON, KAZAKHSTAN PERFORMED

• 2.25 Mln T of global oilseeds output ( 17/18, 585, 0.4% share ), but 650 kmtof global Linseed output ( 18/19, 2.6 Mln T, 25% share ).

• 1.19 Mln T of global oilseeds crushings ( 17/18, 485, 0.3% share ), but 500kmt of global Sunseed crushings ( 18/19, 47.5 Mln T, 1% share ).

• 1.07 Mln T of global oilseeds exports ( 17/18, 175, 0.6% share ), but 500 kmtof global Linseed ( 18/19, 1.45 Mln T, 35% share ) and 375 kmt of globalSunseed ( 18/19, 3 Mln T, 12.5% share ) exports.

• 60 kmt of global oilseeds imports ( 18/19, 175, 0.03% share ), but 40 kmt ofglobal Sunseed imports ( 18/19, 3 Mln T, 1.35% share ).

AS IT’S SEEN ;

KAZAKHSTAN HAS ATTRACTIVELY,

• 25% SHARE IN GLOBAL LINSEED OUTPUT,

• 35% SHARE IN GLOBAL LINSEED EXPORTS

• 12.5% SHARE IN GLOBAL SUNSEED EXPORTS.

IN 2018/19 SEASON,

KAZAKHSTAN PERFORMED

• 420 kmt of global vegoils output ( 17/18, 206.5 Mln T, 0.2% share ), but 210

kmt of global Sunoil output ( 18/19, 20 Mln T, 1.05% share ).

• 400 kmt of global vegoils consumption ( 17/18, 206.5 Mln T, 0.2% share ),

but 250 kmt of global Sunoil consumption ( 18/19, 19.5 Mln T, 1.3% share ).

• 165 kmt of global vegoils exports ( 17/18, 89 Mln T, 0.2% share ), but 70 kmt

of global global Sunoil exports ( 18/19, 11.5 Mln T, 0.60% share ).

• 150 kmt of global vegoils imports ( 18/19, 88.5 Mln T, 0.17% share ), but 110

kmt of global Sunoil imports ( 18/19, 11.5 Mln T, 0.95% share ).

AS IT’S SEEN ;

KAZAKHSTAN HAS

UNFORTUNATELY NO

SIGNIFICANT SHARE IN

GLOBAL VEGOILS OUTPUT,

CONSUMPTION, EXPORTS

AND IMPORTS.

2019/20 SEASON GLOBAL OILSEEDS

PROSPECTS

IN 2019/20 NEW-SEASON

OUR GLOBAL SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE

AS FOLLOWINGS;

- UKRAINE, 15.0 MLN T ( 18/19, record 15.50 ),

- RUSSIA, 12.75 MLN T ( 18/19, record 12.85 ),

- EU-28, 9.9 MLN T ( 18/19, 9.65 ),

- ARGENTINA, 3.75 MLN T (18/19, 3.75 ),

- CHINA, 3.0 MLN T ( 18/19, 3.0 ),

- TURKEY, 1.55 MLN T ( 18/19, 1.43 ),

- USA, 1.0 MLN T ( 18/19, 0.95 ),

- TOTAL, record 53.15 MLN T ( 18/19, 52.75 ), 0.35 MLN T

IN 2019/20 NEW-SEASONOUR REGIONAL SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE

AS FOLLOWINGS;


- RUSSIA, 12.75 MLN T ( 18/19, record 12.85 ),

- ROMANIA, record 3.25 MLN T ( 18/19, 2.65 ),

- BULGARIA, 2.1 MLN T ( 18/19, 1.9 ),

- TURKEY, 1.55 MLN T ( 18/19, 1.43 ),

- MOLDOVA, 950 KMT ( 18/19, 950 ),

- KAZAKHSTAN, 850 KMT ( 18/19, 900 ),

- TOTAL, 36.45 MLN T ( 17/18, 36.18 ), 0.27 MLN T


OUR GLOBAL RAPESEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE

AS FOLLOWINGS;

- CANADA, 19.75 MLN T ( 18/19, 20.5 ),

- EU-28, 17.25 MLN T ( 18/19, 20.0 ),

- CHINA, 8.0 MLN T ( 18/19, 7.5 ),

- INDIA, 7.5 MLN T ( 18/19, 8.0 ),

- UKRAINE, record 3.25 MLN T ( 18/19, 3.0 ),

- AUSTRALIA, 2.5 MLN T ( 18/19, 2.2 ),

- RUSSIA, record 2.15 MLN T ( 18/19, 2.0 ),

- TOTAL, 64.25 MLN T ( 18/19, 67.15 ), 2.9 MLN T


OUR REGIONAL RAPESEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE

AS FOLLOWINGS;

- UKRAINE, record 3.25 MLN T ( 18/19, 3.0 ),


- ROMANIA, 700 KMT ( 18/19, 1.62 ),

- BULGARIA, 400 KMT ( 18/19, 440 ),

- KAZAKHSTAN, 325 KMT ( 18/19, 400 ),

- TURKEY, 225 KMT ( 18/19, 115 ),

- MOLDOVA, 70 KMT ( 18/19, 70 ),

- TOTAL, 7.12 MLN T ( 17/18, 7.29 ), 170 KMT


OUR GLOBAL SOYBEAN NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE

AS FOLLOWINGS;

- BRAZIL, record 122.5 MLN T ( 18/19, 118 ),

- USA, 100 MLN T ( 18/19, record 124 ),

- ARGENTINA, 55 MLN T ( 18/19, 57 ),

- CHINA, 16 MLN T ( 18/19, 15.0 ),

- INDIA, 10.5 MLN T ( 18/19, 11.0 ),

- PARAGUAY, 10.25 MLN T ( 18/19, 8.5 ),

- CANADA, 6.5 MLN T ( 18/19, 7.3 ),

- TOTAL, 344 MLN T ( 18/19, record 365 ), 21 MLN T


OUR REGIONAL SOYBEAN NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE

AS FOLLOWINGS;



- ROMANIA, 350 KMT ( 18/19, 350 ),

- KAZAKHSTAN, 250 KMT ( 18/19, 250 ),

- TURKEY, 125 KMT ( 18/19, 100 ),

- MOLDOVA, 50 KMT ( 18/19, 50 ),

- BULGARIA, 20 KMT ( 18/19, 35 ),

- TOTAL, 9.05 MLN T ( 17/18, 9.64 ), 590 KMT

AS IT'S SEEN;

GLOBAL SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE WILL BE

HIGHER, BUT RAPESEED AND ESPECIALLY

SOYBEAN OUTPUTS WILL BE LOWER

IN 2019/2020 SEASON.

AS IT'S ALSO SEEN;

BLACK SEA SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE WILL BE

HIGHER, BUT RAPESEED AND SOYBEAN OUTPUTS

WILL BE LOWER

IN 2019/2020 SEASON.

PRESENTATION

SUMMARY

• SOYBEAN IS THE LOCOMOTIVE OF GLOBAL OILSEEDS’ OUTPUT, CRUSHINGS AND

TRADE.

• CHINA IS THE MAIN DESTINATION OF SOYBEAN EXPORTS AS WELL AS PARTLY OTHER

OILSEEDS AND VEGOILS. THEREFORE, KAZAKHSTAN HAS ALSO ADVANTAGEOUS

LOCATION BEING THE NEIGHBOR COUNTRY OF CHINA.

• EU-28 AND CANADA ARE THE MAIN PLAYERS IN CANOLA COMPLEX.

• KAZAKHSTAN IS AMIDS THE MAJOR PLAYERS IN LINSEED OUTPUT AND EXPORTS AS

WELLAS SUNSEED EXPORTS.

• SOYBEAN NEW-CROP SIZE IN BLACK SEA AND GLOBALLY BY 2019/20 SEASON WILL BE

LOWER. ESPECIALLY US SOY NEW-CROP SIZE WILL SUFFER HUGE LOSSES DUE TO

HISTORICALLY NON-STOP RAINS DURING PLANTINGS, AND SO ABANDONNED

ACREAGES AND LOWER YIELD POTENTIALS.

• SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE IN BLACK SEA AND GLOBALLY BY 2019/20 SEASON WILL BE

AT RECORD LEVELS.

• RAPESEED NEW-CROP SIZE IN BLACK SEA AND GLOBALLY BY 2019/20 SEASON WILL BE

LOWER.

• WITH LOWER NEW-CROP SIZE IN SOYBEAN ESPECIALLY, THE PRICES OF OILSEEDS &

DERIVATIVES MAY BE PARTLY RELIEVED DURING 2019/20 SEASON. WEATHER

CONDITIONS AND US/CHINESE TRADE WARS ARE SO CRUCIAL.

Great thanks for your kind attention…

THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND

BROKERAGE AS PER 21-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE

VEYSEL KAYAhttp://www.sunseedman.com

[email protected] : SUNSEEDMAN

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Documents

KAZAKH GRAIN EXPORTsunseedman.weebly.com/uploads/3/1/9/7/31970037/... · over 85% of global soybean exports, canada, ukraine and australia performed over 90% of global rapeseed exports,