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© OECD/IEA 2017 © OECD/IEA 2017
Keisuke Sadamori
October 24, Singapore
© OECD/IEA 2017
Southeast Asia: the energy context
Southeast Asia is emerging as major global energy player
➢ Strong economic & population growth, urbanisation & industrialisation
➢ Demand increased by 60% since 2000, strong potential for further growth
A region with multiple energy challenges
➢ 65 million lacking access to electricity, 250 million reliant on solid fuels for cooking
➢ Dwindling position as a gas exporter, and a rising dependency on imported oil
➢ Poor air quality, vulnerability to effects of climate change
Opportunities for a cleaner energy future
➢ Paris Agreement ratified by all, increasing attention to renewables & efficiency
➢ Fossil fuel subsidy reforms making progress
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A shift in the global centre of gravity for energy
Change in primary energy demand to 2040 (Mtoe)
Southeast Asia, India and China are the engine of future energy demand growth, together accounting for almost 60% of the global increase to 2040
Share of global growth 2016-2040
1 005
India 420
SoutheastAsia
790China
United States-30
Japan-50
Europe-280
320Latin
America
485
Africa
135
Eurasia
485MiddleEast
11%
21%
26%
13%
13%
8%
3%5%
Southeast Asia
China
IndiaMiddle
East
Africa
Latin America
EurasiaOther
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-20
0
20
40
60
80
100Mtoe
Electricity leads demand growth
Change in total final energy consumption 2016-2040
A growing middle class proves a formidable factor behind both the increase in electricity (in households) and oil (for transport)
Bioenergy Coal Gas Oil Electricity
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200 400 600 800 1 000
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
TWh
The power mix becomes more diversified
Power generation by fuel in the New Policies Scenario
Renewables account for the largest share of installed capacity in 2040, but coal plays a major role in the projected generation mix
2016
Change to 2040
Hydro
Solar PV
Wind
Other
Of which:
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20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2016 2030 2040
The road to universal electricity access
Access to electricity
All countries in the region achieve universal access to electricity by the early 2030s, deploying a range of technologies depending on circumstance
Access by type of connection, 2030
On-grid43%
Off-grid24%
Mini-grid33%
Philippines
Myanmar
CambodiaLao PDR
Viet NamThailand
Indonesia
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100
200
300
400
500
2000 2016 2025 2040
Coal (Mtce)
A growing need for imports
Fossil fuel production and demand to 2040
By 2040, Southeast Asia is a net importer of all fossil fuels,and the import bill exceeds $300 billion
Production Demand
2
4
6
10
2000 2016 2025 2040
Oil (mb/d)
8
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2016 2025 2040
Gas (bcm)
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A sustainable pathway for Southeast Asia
Key indicators for New Policies (NPS) and Sustainable Development (SDS) Scenarios
A small increase in investment sets Southeast Asia on a sustainable pathway and brings multiple benefits
200
400
600
NPS SDS
Premature deaths from air pollution(Thousand people)
Supply investment
Efficiency investment
Cumulative investment(Trillion dollars)
1
2
3
NPS SDS
100
200
300
400
NPS SDS
Fossil fuel import bill(Billion dollars)
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Conclusions
Robust economic growth and fast-paced demographic change mean that Southeast Asia’s role in global energy is set to expand
The region faces myriad energy challenges; it is crucial for policy-makers to pursue a consistent strategy to meet them
Energy efficiency, subsidy reform and enhanced regional integration play vital roles
With a small increase in overall investment, but a major reallocation of flows, Southeast Asia can achieve a more sustainable pathway, with multiple benefits
With international engagement on energy more important than ever, the IEA stands ready to be a strong partner for the region
