Kenyon College 2008 Financial Aid Optimization Analysis Prepared October 2008

Kenyon College2008 Financial Aid Optimization Analysis

Prepared October 2008

Prepared October 2008 by Hardwick-Day for Kenyon College.Reproduction or distribution elsewhere prohibited.

2

2008 Outcomes– Freshman enrollment declined by one student from 2007

– 457 Freshmen*– Discount rate fell by one-tenth of one percentage point

– 27.2 percent to 27.1 percent– Net tuition revenue increased by $680,000

– $13.4 million– Continued to improve gender balance.

– From 54 percent female in 2007 to 52 percent in 2008– Increased number and percentage of domestic minority

students– 16.2 percent of the class (75 of 457) from 12.9 percent in 2007

– Maintained average SAT. (No ACT concordance used)– Overall-1331 in 2008 vs. 1330 in 2007– Early Decision- 1298 in 2008 vs. 1309 in 2007

Outcomes reflect all freshmen, not just those in the model population.

*This number includes two students who deferred after the analysis was constructed.


3

$31,600 or MoreAcad Acad 5Index Index Merit Merit Merit Merit Merit

1 1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

2 2 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

3 3 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

4 4 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

5 5 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

6 6 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

7b 7 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

7a 8 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000

8b 9 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000

8a 10 $7,000 $7,000 $7,000 $7,000 $7,000

9b 11 $8,000 $8,000 $8,000 $8,000 $8,000

9a 12 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000

Maximum Self Help:

Minority $3,500

9A, 9B, 8A, 8B, 7A, 7B $5,800

6 $7,300

5 or below $7,300Foreign: $4,300

Minimum Need Met:9A, 9B, 8A, 8B, 7A, 7B, Minority $5,000

6 $4,0005 or below $3,000

Maximum Above Need: $2,000 Merit Cutoff: 8Honors, Science, Trustee: $4,000

Kenyon College Proposed Policy for Fall, 2008Ohio Residents

Simulation 1: 2007 Policy

Non-Aid Applicants Need: $0 $1 - $17,749 $17,750 - $31,599Need Index

1 2 3 4


4

The discount rate excluding tuition waivers and exchanges fell slightly

and enrollment was one fewer than last year, resulting in a net tuition revenue gain of $680,000

This chart describes all new freshmen, not only those in

the reduced data set used to construct the other charts.

Freshman Enrollment:

420 439 454 473 442 458 458 457

Annual Tuition: $26,800 $27,900 $29,500 $31,260 $33,930 $36,050 $38,140 $40,240

Tuition Waivers: $73,656 $104,956 $109,556 $236,454 $211,078 $131,187 $143,326 $299,481

Kenyon College Fall 2008 Financial Aid AnalysisEight-Year Trend - Freshman Revenues and Discount

$11.26$12.25

$13.39$14.79 $15.00

$16.51$17.47

$18.39

$7.69$8.65 $9.27

$10.34 $10.24$11.74

$12.57 $13.10

31.7%

28.9%28.1% 28.8%

30.3%

28.1%27.1%

30.1%30.8%29.4%

31.7%

31.0%

28.5%30.0%

28.5%27.2%

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Gross Tuition Revenue Net Tuition Revenue Discount Discount - Tuition Waivers Excluded


5

These records are excluded because students in these categories do not respond to aid in the same way as regular admission students.

Selection of Records for Analysis:• Records received (admitted): 1,431• Records excluded (below): 298• Records included in model population: 1,133

Admits Enrolled Institutional Grant Net Rev DiscountTransfer 17 6 $80,136 $161,304 33.2%Other Non-Freshmen 1 1 $0 $40,240 0.0%International 72 18 $690,866 $33,454 95.4%Tuition Waiver 15 8 $312,175 $9,745 97.0%Early Decision 193 183 $1,523,250 $5,840,670 20.7%

Total Freshmen 280 209 $2,526,291 $5,883,869 30.0%

Total Excluded 298 216 $2,606,427 $6,085,413 30.0%

Kenyon College2008 Aid Optimization AnalysisSummary of Excluded Records


6

Academic Rank Academic Rank Academic Rank Academic Rank Academic Rank

Non-Aid Applicants Need: $0 $1 - $19,999 $20,000 - $34,999 $35,000 or More

Kenyon College Fall 2008 Freshman Financial Aid AnalysisCell Counts - All Admits

108110

107

90

101

35 34

4751

53

26

2024

3032

24

1922

28

38

44

24 2325

18

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5

To frame the analysis: Admitted students are normed into five roughly equal academic ranks using Kenyon’s admission rating system with

data ranging from 15.9 to 36.5

Students in the top half of the admit pool are more likely to apply for aid. They are also more likely to be among the more affluent.


7



Kenyon College Fall 2008 Freshman Financial Aid AnalysisCell Counts - All Admits

108 107 105

55

7

33 33

44

23 2620 19

11

2318 18

13

44

2315 12

3

31

67

23

3115

21

12

16

7

8

23

20

9 17

7

4

5

4

4

5

86

1

2

1

12

1

3

1

1

2

1

4

22

2

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5

Trustee Opp Admits

Honor/Sci Admits

DAS Admits

Non-Scholar Admits


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Kenyon College Fall 2008 Freshman Financial Aid AnalysisYield Rate by Cell - All Admits

17

%

(3 /

18

)

28

%

(7 /

25

)

22

%

(5 /

23

)

38

%

(9 /

24

)

45

%

(20

/ 4

4)

8%

(3

/ 3

8)

21

%

(6 /

28

)

32

%

(7 /

22

)

11

%

(2 /

19

)

33

%

(8 /

24

)

22

%

(7 /

32

)

10

%

(3 /

30

)

29

%

(7 /

24

)

20

%

(4 /

20

)

19

%

(5 /

26

)

19

%

(10

/ 5

3)

22

%

(11

/ 5

1)

21

%

(10

/ 4

7)

29

%

(10

/ 3

4)

46

%

(16

/ 3

5)

8%

(8

/ 1

01

)17

%

(15

/ 9

0)

16

%

(17

/ 1

07

)

20

%

(22

/ 1

10

)31

%

(33

/ 1

08

)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5

Average Yield Rate of Non-Aid Applicants: 18.4% Average Yield Rate of Aid Applicants: 24.8%

Kenyon experiences competitive pressure in academic ranks two, three, and four where students are likely to

be in the top quintile for competitors and do not receive merit awards under the current Kenyon strategy.

Unlike most colleges, Kenyon's weakest yields were in higher need categories, despite the College's generous aid policy.This suggests competitive pressure from "no-loan" colleges.


9



Kenyon College Fall 2008 Freshman Financial Aid Analysis-Newman's Own ExcludedYield Rate by Cell - All Admits

20

%

(3 /

15

)29

%

(7 /

24

)

15

%

(3 /

20

)

31

%

(4 /

13

)

44

%

(16

/ 3

6)

8%

(3

/ 3

8)

21

%

(6 /

28

)

33

%

(7 /

21

)

11

%

(2 /

18

)

33

%

(8 /

24

)

22

%

(7 /

32

)

10

%

(3 /

30

)

29

%

(7 /

24

)

20

%

(4 /

20

)

19

%

(5 /

26

)

19

%

(10

/ 5

3)

22

%

(11

/ 5

1)

21

%

(10

/ 4

7)

29

%

(10

/ 3

4)

46

%

(16

/ 3

5)

8%

(8

/ 1

01

)17

%

(15

/ 9

0)

16

%

(17

/ 1

07

)

20

%

(22

/ 1

10

)31

%

(33

/ 1

08

)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5



10



Kenyon College Fall, 2007 Freshman Financial Aid AnalysisYield Rate by Cell - All Admits

32

%

(7 /

22

)

48

%

(11

/ 2

3)

43

%

(9 /

21

)

32

%

(7 /

22

)

42

%

(14

/ 3

3)

13

%

(3 /

24

)

36

%

(12

/ 3

3)46

%

(11

/ 2

4)

35

%

(7 /

20

)

38

%

(8 /

21

)

15

%

(4 /

26

)

18

%

(5 /

28

)

10

%

(2 /

21

)

17

%

(5 /

29

)

15

%

(3 /

20

)

13

%

(8 /

61

)

8%

(3

/ 3

8)

28

%

(13

/ 4

7)3

8%

(1

3 /

34

)

27

%

(6 /

22

)

10

%

(9 /

92

)

14

%

(14

/ 1

00

)

20

%

(26

/ 1

27

)

24

%

(32

/ 1

31

)

21

%

(18

/ 8

6)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5



11



Kenyon College Fall 2008 Freshman Financial Aid AnalysisAverage Total Grant by Cell - All Admits

$1

29

$3

57

$3

43

$3

,12

2

$9

,16

1

$5

13

$2

93

$7

37

$4

,85

2

$1

2,3

36

$5

,29

1

$6

,63

4

$7

,51

1

$8

,94

6

$1

2,8

77

$2

2,4

33

$2

2,5

91

$2

4,0

10

$2

0,6

01

$2

6,3

88

$3

9,0

19

$3

9,4

73

$4

0,7

77

$3

7,3

94

$3

9,8

89

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5

Amounts include federal, state, and institutional aid but not outside scholarships.

For Kenyon, merit aid is concentrated in the top quintile of student performance.


12



Kenyon College Fall 2008 Freshman Financial Aid AnalysisAverage Net Tuition Revenue by Cell - All Matriculants

$40,

240

$39,

695

$40,

240

$34,

907

$30,

365

$39,

740

$40,

240

$37,

840

$36,

058

$29,

640

$35,

144

$35,

135

$32,

461

$33,

535

$29,

836

$15,

941 $1

8,62

7

$15,

349

$15,

650

$12,

236

$4,3

24

$3,7

42

$3,2

13

$2,9

67

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5

Net Tuition shown reflects (Tuition-Institutional Grant) - funded & unfunded

Kenyon's generosity in meeting need results in very little net revenue per student in the highest need category, low in relative as well as nominal

terms. Note the difference in net revenue per student between the two highest need categories.


13

Kenyon CollegeFreshman Admits by SAT Score/ACT Converted Score

0

50

100

150

200

250

800 - 840 900 - 940 1000 - 1040 1100 - 1140 1200 - 1240 1300 - 1340 1400 - 1440 1500 - 1540 1600

SAT Scores

Ad

mit

s

2006

2007

2008

2006 Median: 13902007 Median: 13802008 Median: 1390

2006 Mean: 13812007 Mean: 13752008 Mean: 1384

Middle 50th Percentile: 1310-1460

Where SAT not provided, College Board concordance used to estimate SAT from composite ACT.

Kenyon College continues to attract and admit a more qualified group, especially considering its success in minority

recruitment, but there is a significant challenge to increase consideration among those in the 1340 SAT range.

The admit pool was stronger as measured by mean SAT, but the distribution was wider and the modal

population (1350-1400) fell in number….


14

Kenyon CollegeFreshman Matriculants by SAT Score/ACT Converted Score

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

800 - 840 900 - 940 1000 - 1040 1100 - 1140 1200 - 1240 1300 - 1340 1400 - 1440 1500 - 1540 1600

SAT Scores

Mat

ricu

lan

ts

2006

2007

2008

2006 Median: 13502007 Median: 13552008 Median: 1365

2006 Mean: 13492007 Mean: 13462008 Mean: 1357

Middle 50th Percentile: 1297.5-1440

Where SAT not provided, College Board concordance used to estimate SAT from composite ACT.

….but the matriculating population (excluding early decision) was stronger, particularly in the 1350-1400 range.


15

Kenyon CollegeThree-Year Trend - Freshman Admits by Academic Rank

327

159

215227

208

248

215203

214225

237

207

223 224

242

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1 2 3 4 5

2006

2007

2008

Increasing Academic Performance

29% 22% 21% 14% 19% 18% 19% 18% 20% 20% 19% 20% 18% 20% 21%

Percentage of Total Admits by Year


16

Discount Rate: 30.7% 30.9% 28.7% 27.4% 20.5% 21.4% 20.3% 25.2% 23.7% 43.3% 45.5% 32.8% 50.1% 50.8% 37.3%

Kenyon CollegeThree-Year Trend - Freshman Yield by Academic Rank

12.5%(26)

18.1%(41)

17.2%(37)

22.0%(35)

32.4%(106)

13.8%(31)

20.6%(44)

24.6%(50)

26.5%(57)

27.4%(68)

12.8%(31)

18.8%(42)

20.6%(46)

22.7%(47)

34.6%(82)

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

1 2 3 4 5

2006

2007

2008

Increasing Academic Performance

Yield

# Enrolled

Reflecting the national trend at private colleges, yield rates fell broadly from last year. The exception was in the lowest academic quintile.

That profile did not fall is testimony to the strength of the admit pool and the staff's ability to recruit the students it wants.


17

Kenyon CollegeThree-Year Trend - Freshman Admits by Need Rank

533

176

121

151 155

518

199

132 125 131

516

220

132 131 134

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


Need Rank

2006

2007

2008Percentage of Total Admits by Year

47% 15% 11% 13% 14%47% 18% 12% 11% 12%46% 19% 12% 12% 12%

Need ranges are indexed to account for changes in cost of attendance, with the most recent year scaled to create equal

numbers of admits among aid applicants with need.


18

Discount Rate: 5.1% 4.8% 4.5% 7.4% 9.0% 8.0% 17.2% 19.0% 18.5% 51.3% 57.9% 61.5% 85.5% 87.0% 91.3%

Kenyon CollegeThree-Year Trend - Freshman Yield by Need Rank

38.7%(60)

23.8%(36)

14.9%(18)

21.6%(38)

17.4%(93)

41.2%(54)

29.6%(37)

18.9%(25)

19.1%(38)

18.5%(96)

32.8%(44)

19.8%(26)

19.7%(26)

25.9%(57)

18.4%(95)

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%


2006

2007

2008

Yield

# Enrolled

Even though Kenyon meets full demonstrated need, yield fell in the highest need groups. This improved the financial outcome, but cost economic diversity and probably reflects the economy, the capital

markets, and competitive pressure from colleges giving even better (no loan) packages or the public sector offering essentially free education.

Kenyon's yields rose, contrary to national trends, in the more affluent segments, and fell in higher need segments

despite the College's generosity in meeting need.


19

Kenyon College

Major Markets

Matriculants

Admits by County

35 or More

10 to 34

3 to 9

1 or 2

Concentrations of admits and matriculants

define markets for further analysis (based

on permanent ZIP Code). The circles shown on the map

describe the geographic area included in each

market.

Northeast

West

Ohio markets


20

Kenyon College

Major Ohio Markets

Cincinnati

Columbus

Cleveland

Matriculants

Admits by County

35 or More

10 to 34

3 to 9

1 or 2


21

Kenyon CollegeThree-Year Trend - Admits by Market

5942 40

412

167

58

38 33

381

201

68

41 34

426

185

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Cleveland Columbus Cincinnati Northeast West

Markets

2006

2007

2008


22

Kenyon CollegeThree-Year Trend - Yield by Market

19%(31)

24%(99)

43%(17)

36%(15)

27%(16) 25%

(51)25%(94)

21%(7)

29%(11)

26%(15)

23%(43)21%

(90)

29%(10)

29%(12)

24%(16)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Cleveland Columbus Cincinnati Northeast West

Markets

2006

2007

2008

Documents

Kenyon College 2008 Financial Aid Optimization Analysis Prepared October 2008