Labor Market Information Methodology and uses Part 3

Labor Market Information Methodology and uses

Part 3

Dennis ReidBureau of Labor Statistics San Francisco Regional

OfficeOctober 2014

2

Bureau of Labor Statistics The BLS is the principal fact-finding agency for

the Federal Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics

The BLS mission is to collect, process, analyze and disseminate data

BLS is an independent statistical agency. It serves its diverse user communities by providing products and services that are objective, timely, accurate, and relevant.

Users include the American public, Congress, Federal agencies, state and local governments, businesses, labor organizations

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Fed/State Cooperative Programs

Partnership with eight States & GuamContract: LMI & OSHS Cooperative

Agreements

BLS → States– $, procedures, sample selection, systems, manuals,

training (OSHS: 50% funding by law)

– Ensure consistency across all states

States → BLS– Collect, process and edit the data– Analyze/publish State and area data

BLS ↔ States– Policy collaboration via Workforce Information Council

and Program Policy Councils

4

Labor Force Programs Overview

BLS and the Federal/State Cooperative Programs

Comparison of programs NAICS (North American Industry Classification System)

QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages “ES-202”)

CES (Current Employment Statistics)

OES (Occupational Employment Statistics)

CPS (Current Population Survey)

LAUS (Local Area Unemployment Statistics)

JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey)

OSHS (Occupational Safety & Health Statistics)

Comparison of Labor Force and OSHS Programs

QCEW CES OES CPS LAUS JOLTS SOII CFOI

Data Collected by

States & BLS BLS States & BLS ROs Census BureauInput from CPS, CES,

UIBLS States and BLS States and BLS

Data Collected from

Establishments Establishments Establishments HouseholdsInput from CPS, CES,

UIEstablishments Establishments various sources

Estimate or Universe Count?

Universe Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Universe

Frequency of Collection

Quarterly for monthly data

Monthly Semi-Annual Monthly Monthly Monthly Annual on a flow basis

Frequency of Publication

Quarterly & Annual

Monthly Annual Monthly Monthly Monthly Annual Annual

Major Data Types Published

UI covered employment &

wages by industry

Nonfarm employment, hours, hourly earnings by

industry

Occupational employment &

wages by area and industry

Civilian labor force, employment,

unemployment, Unemp. rate for

the nation

Civilian labor force, employment,

unemployment, Unemp. rate for

States & local areas

Nonfarm job openings, hires, and separations by industry and

region

Workplace Injuries and Illnesses

Workplace Fatalities

Geographic Detail Published

County, MSAs, State, USA

MSAs, State, USA

MSAs, State, USA USA

Cities & towns 25,000+, County, LMA, MSA, State, Census Division &

Region

Census Region and USA

USA and most States

MSAs, State, USA

Demographic Detail Published

None Women Workers NoneExtensive

Demographic Detail

None NoneGender, age, race/ethnicity

Gender, age, race/ethnicity

Are Data Benchmarked?

No, QCEW is a benchmark

Yes, to QCEW Yes, to QCEW No Yes, to CPS Yes, to CES Yes, to QCEWNo, CFOI is a universe count

Major Uses Sample frame & benchmark

Economic Indicator

Foreign Labor Certification,

Planning training & educational programs

Economic IndicatorEconomic Indicator, Allocation of funds

Economic Indicator

Workplace safety programs

Workplace safety programs

Time from Reference Period to 1st BLS Publication

6 months or more

USA- 3 weeks; States- 5 weeks; MSAs- 7 weeks

10 months 3 weeksStates- 5 weeks; Areas- 7 weeks

4-6 weeks after reference month

10 months 8 months

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Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)

www.bls.gov/oes

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OES Survey

OES collects detailed occupational and wage information by industry and area

Semi-annual establishment survey

Primarily a mail survey

NOT a time series (no overlapping sample units to measure change)

All 50 statesPlus DC, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands

Big change in 1996: wage collection for all States

8

OES Sample Design

1.2 million establishments

3-year collection cycle

400,000 surveyed annually in two panels(May and November)

Estimates are based on the total sample of 1.2 million collected over three years (6 panels)

Wage data for 2.5 previous years (5 panels) are updated using ECI-based factors

(ECI = Employment Cost Index)

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OES Universe and Sampling Frame

BLS draws sample twice a year (2nd, 4th quarters)

QCEW is the sampling frame

Includes establishments in Nonfarm industries Agricultural services Federal, State, and Local governments

Stratified by Area, Industry and Size Class

The larger an establishment, the more likely it will be included in the 3-year OES sample

Sample distribution across states was “fixed” since 1996; dynamic starting in 2010

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Workers in scope of OES survey

Full or part-time paid workers

Workers on paid leave

Workers assigned temporarily to other units

Paid owners, officers, and staff of incorporated firms

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Workers not in scope of OES survey

Proprietors, owners, and partners of unincorporated firms

Self-employed individuals

Unpaid family workers

Workers on unpaid leave

Contractors & temporary help (not on the establishment’s payroll)

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What is an OES Wage?

Straight-time gross pay exclusive of premium pay. OES Wage Includes:

Base Rate Cost-of-Living

Allowances Guaranteed Pay Hazardous Duty

Pay Portal-to-Portal Pay

Incentive Pay, e.g. Commissions, Piece Rates & Production Bonuses

Length-of-Service Allowances [Longevity Pay]

Tips Deadheading Pay

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OES Wage excludes:

Attendance Bonuses Back Pay Draw Premium Pay for

Holidays/Weekends Jury Duty Pay

Meal & Lodging Allowances

Merchandise Discounts

Non-Production Bonuses

Holiday Bonuses Overtime Pay Profit Sharing Relocation Allowances Severance Pay Shift Differentials Stock Bonuses Uniform Allowance

14

OES Survey Activities

Draw sample from the universe Survey form production - by central

printer

Mail-out of survey forms - by central printer

Data collection Data entry Data review and editing Estimation Publication

15

OES Data Collected

Occupation and wage data of all employees for units sampled

This information is stored listing the occupational employment distribution for each unit sampled by wage interval (or range)

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November 2013 OES Wage Ranges

Hourly Rates

under $9.25

9.25 - 11.74

11.75 - 14.74

14.75 - 18.74

18.75 - 23.99

24.00 - 30.24

30.25 - 38.49

38.50 - 48.99

49.00 - 61.99

62.00 - 78.74

78.75 - 99.99

100.00 and over

(Note: Ranges for May 2013 and prior panels were lower)

Annual Rates

under $19,240

19,240 - 24,439

24,440 - 30,679

30,680 - 38,999

39,000 - 49,919

49,920 - 62,919

62,920 - 80,079

80,080 - 101,919

101,920 - 128,959

128,960 - 163,799

163,800 - 207,999

208,000 and over

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OES Survey Forms

Are specific to industries or groups of industries (~100 industry-specific versions)

List occupations that occur in the surveyed industry (longest has 225 occupations)

“Non form” reporting Collection by phone/email; files/printouts

In 2009: Web-lite (downloaded fillable form)

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`

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Non-form OES Reporting

Some firms return printouts or electronic payroll files, which are coded by OES State or regional office staff

Some data are collected/coded by regional office National Compensation Survey staff

Many firms report data over the phone

E-mail collection

2009: Web-lite (downloaded fillable form)

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Standard Occupational Classification

The standard occupational classification (SOC) is a system designed to:

Classify all occupations in the economy, including private, public, and military occupations

Provide a means to compare occupational data across government agencies

Revised periodically:

2010 revision, finalized in 2009, implemented in 2010

Net new job count is 19; 2 of them “green” http://www.bls.gov/soc/soc2010.pdf

2018 SOC revision in the works

http://www.bls.gov/soc/soc2010.pdf

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SOC Classification Levels

Broad categories lead to unique 6-digit codes for each occupation:

22 Major groups ; divided into...

98 Minor groups; divided into...

450 Broad occupations; divided into...

800+ Detailed occupations

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SOC Structure Example :

Major Group: 25-0000 Education, Training, and Library Occupations

Minor Group: 25-2000 Teachers, Primary, Secondary

& Special Education

Broad Occupation: 25-2020 Teachers, Elementary

& Middle School

Detailed Occupation: 25-2021 Teachers, Elementary

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OES Data Produced by BLS

Types of estimates Employment Wages (mean, median, 10th, 25th, 75th 90th wage rate

percentiles)

Industry Cross-industry and by 3- and 4-digit NAICS

Examples: Cross Industry: All Nurses By NAICS industry: Nurses working

in hospitals Geography

National, State, MSAs

Special wages for Foreign Labor Certification (FLC) Produced, but not published by BLS

States use Estimates Delivery System (EDS)

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Some Hawaii OES Data

Source: Hawaii State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations, Research and Statistics Office

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Users of OES Data

Employment and Training Administration’s Foreign Labor Certification program (FLC)

Job Seekers and Counselors

Vocational Educational Planners

Business Associations

Employers

BLS (for occupational projections)

Employment Projections Background

10-year projections made every 2 years

2012-22 projections cover over 800 occupations and 300 industries

BLS projections prepared at the national level only

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Labor Force Change by Age Group: Projected

2012-22

16-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

-2,823

3,321

2,076

-3,454

3,607

5,749

27

In thousands of people

Employment Outlook: 2012-22

Industry Employment

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Employment

2002 2012 Projected 2022

131.0

134.4

149.8

29

Millions of jobs

Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment

Employment Growth Projections

30

Uni

ted

Stat

es

Haw

aii S

tate

wid

e

Hon

olul

u M

SA

Haw

aii C

ount

y

Mau

i Cou

nty

Kaua

i Cou

nty

2012-2022 2010-2020

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

10.8% 9.7% 10.5%

14.2% 15.1% 15.4%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hawaii State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations, Research and Statistics Office

Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected

2012-22

Health care and social assistance Professional and business services

Construction Leisure and hospitality

Retail trade State and local government

Financial activities Educational services

Other services Wholesale trade

Transportation and warehousing Mining

Utilities Information

Federal government Manufacturing

4,994.13,482.8

1,622.11,289.2

1,090.9929.0

751.0675.3648.9

470.4327.3

121.2-56.4-65.2

-407.5-549.5 31

Thousands of wage and salary jobs

Service providing

Goods producing

Rate of Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected

2012-22

Health care and social assistance Construction

Educational services Professional and business services

Mining Other services

Financial activities Leisure and hospitality

Wholesale trade Transportation and warehousing

Retail trade State and local government

Information Manufacturing

Utilities Federal government

2.6%2.6%

1.9%1.8%

1.4%1.0%0.9%0.9%

0.8%0.7%0.7%0.5%

-0.2%-0.5%

-1.1%-1.6%

32

Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment

Service providingGoods producing

Total nonagricultura

l wage and salary annual growth= 1.0%

Employment Outlook: 2012-22

Occupational Employment

33

Percent Change vs. Numeric Change

34

Audiologists

Retail salespersons

33.6%9.8

%

Percent employment growth in two occupations, projected 2012-22

Audiologists

Retail salespersons

4.3434.

7

Numeric employment growth in two occupations, projected 2012-22, in thousands

(Continued on next

slide)

Percent Change in Employment

by Major Occupational Group

Healthcare support

Healthcare practitioners and technical

Construction and extraction

Personal care and service

Computer and mathematical

Community and social service

Business and financial operations

Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance

Education, training, and library

Legal

Life, physical, and social science

28.1%

21.5%

21.4%

20.9%

18.0%

17.2%

12.5%

12.5%

11.1%

10.7%

10.1%35

Projected 2012-22Average=

10.8%

Percent Change in Employment

by Major Occupational Group

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Food preparation and serving related

Transportation and material moving

Protective service

Architecture and engineering

Sales and related

Management

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media

Office and administrative support

Production

Farming, fishing, and forestry

9.6%

9.4%

8.6%

7.9%

7.3%

7.3%

7.2%

7.0%

6.8%

0.8%

-3.4%36

Projected 2012-22

Average, all occupations = 10.8%

(Continued)

Employment Change by Major Occupational

GroupHealthcare practitioners and technical



Healthcare support



Sales and related




Building and grounds cleaning and main-tenance

1,732.9

1,534.0

1,301.9

1,155.8

1,122.9

1,101.8

1,095.5

1,015.8

898.1

790.6

691.0

37

Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22

(Continued on next

slide)

Employment Change by Major Occupational

GroupComputer and mathematical

Management



Protective service



Legal


Production


685.8

636.6

531.2

408.8

263.0

180.6

179.6

132.9

125.7

75.6

-32.238

Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22(Continued)

Employment Growth vs. Replacement Needs

39

Registered nurses

Cashiers

526.8

86.5

Numeric employment growth in two occupations, projected 2012-22, in thousands

Registered nurses

Cashiers

526.8

86.5

525.7

1,443.4

Job openings for two occupations, projected 2012-22, in thousands

From growth Replacement needs

1,530.

1,052.6

Job Openings by Major Occupational Group


Sales and related


Healthcare practitioners and technical



Management




Production

6,401.6

5,599.6

5,509.7

3,378.2

2,964.0

2,896.8

2,397.2

2,352.6

2,340.9

2,286.3

1,881.1

Replacement needs

Series3

40

Thousands of job openings, projected 2012-22

(Continued on next

slide)

Job Openings by Major Occupational Group

Healthcare support

Building and grounds cleaning and main-tenance


Computer and mathematical

Protective service





Legal


1,938.4

1,825.5

1,809.9

1,308.5

1,146.8

962.0

783.3

758.5

486.7

333.6

233.3

Replace-ment needs

Series3

41

Thousands of job openings, projected 2012-22(Continued)

Fastest Growing Occupations

42

Percent change, projected 2012-22

Median annual wages, May 2012

$83,580

$19,910

$20,820

$39,170

$45,430

$65,860

$28,220

$53,240

$56,800

$52,160

Industrial-organizational psychologists

Personal care aides

Home health aides

Insulation workers, mechanical

Interpreters and translators

Diagnostic medical sonographersHelpers--brickmasons, blockmasons,

stonemasons, and tile and marble set-ters

Occupational therapy assistants

Genetic counselors

Physical therapist assistants

53.4%

48.8%

48.5%

46.7%

46.1%

46.0%

43.0%

42.6%

41.2%

41.0%


$19,910

$65,470

$21,110

$20,820

$18,260

$24,420

$32,410

$30,580

$22,320

$29,990


Occupations with the Largest Job Growth

Personal care aides

Registered nurses

Retail salespersons

Home health aides

Combined food preparation and serv-ing workers, including fast food

Nursing assistantsSecretaries and administrative assis-tants, except legal, medical, and ex-

ecutiveCustomer service representatives

Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners

Construction laborers

580.8

526.8

434.7

424.2

421.9

312.2

307.8

298.7

280.0

259.843

Occupations with the Most Job Openings

44

Thousands of job openings, projected 2012-22


$21,110

$18,260

$18,970

$18,540

$65,470

$30,580

$23,890

$27,470

$22,320

$19,910

Retail salespersons

Combined food preparation and serv-ing workers, including fast food

Cashiers

Waiters and waitresses

Registered nurses

Customer service representatives

Laborers and freight, stock, and ma-terial movers, hand

Office clerks, general

Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners

Personal care aides

1,955.7

1,555.7

1,530.0

1,268.3

1,052.6941.6

922.5

810.9

717.3

666.0

Growth Replacement needs

Fastest Declining Occupations

45

Percent change, projected 2012-22


$35,250

$44,920

$24,310

$53,090

$32,880

$53,090

$33,020

$24,050

$56,490

$19,830

Fallers

Locomotive firers

Shoe machine operators and tenders

Postal service clerks

Log graders and scalersPostal service mail sorters, pro-

cessors, and processing machine operators

Semiconductor processors

Textile cutting machine setters, operators, and tenders

Postal service mail carriers

Motion picture projectionists

-43.3%

-42.0%

-35.3%

-31.8%

-31.6%

-29.8%

-27.1%

-27.1%

-26.8%

-26.5%

Occupations with the Largest

Employment Declines

46



$69,300

$56,490

$28,010

$21,270

$53,090

$18,670

$35,270

$53,090

$32,400

$28,630

Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers

Postal service mail carriers

Data entry keyers

Sewing machine operators

Postal service mail sorters, processors, and processing machine operators

Farmworkers and laborers, crop, nursery, and greenhouse

Word processors and typists

Postal service clerks

Reservation and transportation ticket agents and travel clerks

Molding, coremaking, and casting machine setters, operators, and ten-

ders, metal and plastic

-179.9

-79.2

-54.2

-41.7

-38.6

-29.2

-26.2

-21.3

-19.5

-19.2

Hawaii: Short-term Forecasts

47

Contact Information

Dennis ReidAssistant Regional Commissioner

San Francisco415-625-2260

[email protected]

Documents

Labor Market Information Methodology and uses Part 3