LAGOS ECONOMIC SUMMIT (EHINGBETI 2014)

Presented by: Professor Bart Nnaji

Chairman/CEO, Geometric Power

Tuesday, April 8th, 2014

HOW CAN ELECTRICITY TOLAGOS BE ACCELERATED?

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List of Countries by Electricity Production 2013

Global Rank Country Name Region & Regional RankElectricity - installed generating

capacity kW

1 China East Asia & Pacific | 1 1,146,000,000

2 United States North America | 1 1,025,000,000

3 Japan East Asia & Pacific | 2 284,500,000

4 Russia Europe & Central Asia | 1 223,100,000

5 India South Asia | 1 189,300,000

6 Germany Europe & Central Asia | 2 153,200,000

7 Canada North America | 2 131,500,000

8 Italy Europe & Central Asia | 3 122,300,000

9 France Europe & Central Asia | 4 119,100,000

10 Brazil Latin America & Caribbean | 1 106,200,000

11 Spain Europe & Central Asia | 5 102,500,000

12 United Kingdom Europe & Central Asia | 6 88,020,000

13 Korea East Asia & Pacific | 3 80,590,000

14 Mexico Latin America & Caribbean | 2 59,330,000

15 Australia East Asia & Pacific | 4 56,940,000

16 Iran Middle East & North Africa | 1 56,170,000

17 Ukraine Europe & Central Asia | 7 54,380,000

18 Turkey Europe & Central Asia | 8 44,760,000

19 Saudi Arabia Middle East & North Africa | 2 44,490,000

20 South Africa Sub-Saharan Africa | 1 44,260,000

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City Population Installed Capacity Actual Demand

New York 8.4 Million 15, 488 MW 18,102 MW

Mexico City 9 Million 24,627 MW 9,308.7 MW

Karachi 13 Million 1,750 MW 2,650 MW

New Delhi 17 Million 7,500 MW 4,720 MW

Los Angeles 3.5 Million 7,200 MW 6,125 MW

Rio de Janeiro 6..3 Million 1,538 MW

Lagos 15 Million Less than 1000 MW

Rio de Janeiro suffers from the power problems in BrazilLos Angeles enjoys excess supply of power and the city generates more than it consumes

Comparison of Lagos to select Megacities 3

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Wide gap between supply and demand

Obsolete and unreliable generation assets

Weak and inadequate transmission infrastructure

Overloaded distribution network

High technical and commercial losses

4Overview of the Nigerian Power Sector

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Value chain alignment

Fuel

Power Generation

Power Distribution

Electricity Delivery in Lagos 5

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Natural gas

LNG NG

LPFO

Crude Oil

Solar for grid stabilization

Wind @ shore lines

Lagos can use multiple fuels 6

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LNG to Power Schematic 7

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Purchase of power from the grid

Direct Purchase

Vested power through NBET Plc

Generation Solution 8

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Generation Solution: Embedded Generation 9

Emergency Power

Regular Power Development

Lagos State development of power

Contracting with IPP developers

PPP development with IPP developers

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Emergency Power: Location Review Matrix 10

S/No. Location Capacity(MW)

Power Evacuation Fuel Type Fuel Storage

1 Agbara 300 Good Evacuation Facility available

LPFO/Gas Reqd.

2 Oworonsoki 200 No feasible route to evacuation facility

LPFO Reqd.

3 Ajah 300 Good Evacuation Facility available

LPFO Reqd.

4 Ijora 200 Good Evacuation Facility available

LPFO Exists (checkLease)

5 Egbin 300 Good Evacuation Facility available

LPFO/Gas Exist

6 Alagbon 300 Good Evacuation Facility available

LPFO Reqd.

7 Akoka 200 Good Evacuation Facility available

LPFO Reqd.

8 Apapa/Snake Island

200 No Evacuation Facility

LPFO Reqd.

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Emergency Power: Location Review Matrix 11

S/No. Location Bridge Obstruction

Ease of Access Technology Type Proposed

1 Agbara None Land based access Land based Gas /LPFO Turbine/Generator

2 Oworonsoki Exists Marine which may require dredging

Barge mounted LPFO Turbine/Generator

3 Ajah Exists Marine which may require dredging

Barge mounted LPFO Turbine/Generator

4 Ijora None Marine access Barge mounted or Power Ship - LPFO

5 Egbin Exists Marine which may require dredging

Barge mounted or Power Ship - LPFO or Gas

6 Alagbon Exists Marine which may require dredging

Barge mounted LPFO Turbine/Generator

7 Akoka Exists Marine which may require dredging

Barge mounted LPFO Turbine/Generator

8 Apapa/Snake Island

None Marine access Barge mounted or Power Ship - LPFO

LESG Secretariat

The use of LPFO as a fuel will have the following challenges:

LPFO Requirement: A 220MW plant requires 45MT of LPFO per hr. (based Egbin LPFO consumption)1000MW will require 204.5MT/hr (172mln liters /hr @80% availability)

LPFO Availability: LPFO can be obtained from the 3 refineries: (i) Kaduna (ii) Warri (iii) Port Harcourt 50,000 MT is available on daily basis and is currently allocated by

priority to:• (i) MAN (ii) Cement Manufactures and (iii) Other Users. This

implies that massive importation of LPFO will be required.

Emergency Power: The Fuel Challenge 12

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LPFO Cost : The cost of LPFO (ex depot) from the 3 refineries is as follows

(i) Kaduna – N68/liter (ii) Warri – N107.99/liter (iii) Port Harcourt – N107.99/liter (iv) Costal Transportation – N85/liter This implies that the fuel component of power tariff

will be 14.60 N/Kwh (using costal transportation)

Emergency Power: The Fuel Challenge 13

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• Only state with 2 DisCos• Need to improve on network quality• Need to install meters (pre and post)• Need to improve on automation in billing and collection

• Need to install SCADA for monitoring of power distribution and leakages

• Need to have manageable clusters (economic electricity ring-fences) within DisCos

Distribution Solutions 14

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• Privatization-DisCos

LGS is part owner two DisCos no longer helpless

LGS can assert its influence by partnering with the DisCo operators to plan for efficient and effective distribution of power with Lagos.

Effect of Power Sector Reform 15

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NERC

NBET Plc

GACN

NAPTIN

NELMCO

EMS

etc.

Effect of Power Reform: Institutions 16

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Power

Gas

Solar, wind, etc.

Effect of Power Reform: Cost Reflective Tariff 17

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Anyone or government can now participate in power solutions

Capacity building to support power sector

Legal

Financial

Environmental

ICT

Power Equipment Manufacturing

etc

Other Effects of Power Reform 18

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Aba IPP: Gas Pipeline Facilities 19

Gas Pipeline End Units Gas Pipeline Pigging OFS (heater left, control container right)

Osisioma Flow Station (OFS-filter) Pipeline route

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Aba IPP: Power Plant Facilities 20

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Aba IPP: Balance of Plant Facilities 21

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Aba IPP: Other Facilities 22

OVERHEAD LINESCONSUMER CENSUS TEAM OVERHEAD LINES

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Aba IPP: Overhead Lines 23

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Aba IPP: Overhead Lines 24

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Thank you

www.geometricpower.com

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