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111
Anders KvistHead
of Group Treasury
SEB
Handelsbanken Large Cap Seminar
Stockholm
12 September 2011
222
●
SEB’s home markets relatively less affected
●
SEB retains resilience and flexibility
●
Deep-dive: balance sheet, funding and liquidity
●
Strategic priorities remain
3
European sovereigns SEB’s home markets enjoy strong sovereign finances
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
GreeceItaly
BelgiumIreland
PortugalGermany
FranceUK
HungaryAustria
MaltaNetherland
CyprusSpain
PolandFinlandNorway
LatviaDenmarkSweden
LithuaniaSlovenia
LuxemburgEstonia
Sovereign debt, % of GDP
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
IrelandGreece
UKSpain
PortugalPolandLatvia
LithuaniaFrance
SloveniaNetherlands
CyprusAustria
ItalyHungaryBelgium
MaltaGermanyDenmark
FinlandLuxemburg
SwedenEstonia Norway
Deficit, % of GDP
Source: As of end 2010
4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
In May 2011In Aug 2011
GDP growth forecast SEB's home markets and Eurozone, in per cent
Forecast for 2012Forecast for 2011 Forecast for 2013
Source: Nordic Outlook August 30 2011
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Sweden
Norway
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Eurozone
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
5
Lending still growing
Swedish lending growth (y-o-y) Nordic corporate lending growth (y-o-y)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Non-financial Companies and HouseholdsCorporate lending
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Sweden NorwayDenmark Finland
Source: Central banks, as of July 2011Source: Statistic Sweden, as of July 2011
6
Swedish house market cooling off
Mortgage lending growth (y-o-y) House price development, index
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Source: Valueguard HOX IndexSource: Statistic Sweden, as of July 2011
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Houses Sweden Houses StockholmHouses Gothenburg Houses MalmoeFlats Sweden Flats StockholmFlats Gothenburg Flats Malmoe
Houses
Flats
7
Conclusions
On an absolute and relative basis, SEB operates in a region which continues to show strong performance
The stress in the financial markets is markedly lower than in the rest of Europe
The uncertainty on the future impact is nevertheless high
7
888
●
SEB’s home markets relatively less affected
●
SEB retains resilience and flexibility
●
Deep-dive: balance sheet, funding and liquidity
●
Strategic priorities remain
9
Q2 financial wrap-upProfit and loss development Q2-09 – Q2-11 (SEK bn)
Operating income Operating expenses Net credit lossesQ2-11 Q2-11 Q2-11
Operating profit (SEK bn)
3.6
Highlights from results:
Divisional pre-provision profit Q2 vs. Q1 +7%
Group total income H1-11 vs. H1-10 +7%
Customer-driven NII Q2 vs. Q1 +7%
Negative result effects in Q2:
NII: SEK 50m German hedge QoQ, SEK 70m investment portfolio, SEK 100m funding & liquidity
NFI: SEK 200m portfolio valuations directly related to GIIPS exposures
4.3
Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11
9.55.9
0.6
10
Active downsizing of bond exposure to GIIPS countries
26
2119 18 17 16
Jun2010
Sep2010
Dec2010
Mar2011
Jun2011
Jul2011*
GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn
Bank bonds2%
ABS28%
Covered bonds59%
Sovereign bonds11%
Majority in Spanish covered bonds
Limited in relation to total Bond portfolio
Other95%
GIIPS5%
* 8 July
11
0
5
10
15
Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11
Non Net Interest Income Net Interest Income
12.5
8.09.6
8.4
11.910.8
9.1 9.2 8.7 9.2
59%59%64%54%60%49%58%52%59%53%
41%41%36%46%
40%51%42%
48%41%47%
8.9
53%
47%
Total operating income split between Non-NII and NII
10.0
55%
45%
9.7
44%
56%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11
Custody, mutual funds, net life, payments cards, lendingNew issues & advisory, secondary market and derivatives
Underlying market shares render stable and growing commission and net life incomeSEK bn
SEK bn
44%
56%
9.5
Well-diversified revenue streams
12
SEB’s financial position – 2008 vs. H1 2011
Core Tier 1*
Matched funding
Leverage ratio (FDIC)
2008 2009 2010 Jun 2011
8.6%
11.7% 12.8% 13.5%13.5%
23x18x 17x 16x16x
7 months
17 months 18 months26 months26 months
Bond inv portfolio
SEK 133bnSEK 90bn
SEK 48bn SEK 34bnSEK 34bn
* Basel II without transitional floor; 2010 pro forma for disposal of German retail
NPLs SEK 15bn
SEK 29bn SEK 24bn SEK 22bnSEK 22bn
12
13
Capitalisation more than adequate Summary of stress tests
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
2010 2011 2012 2013
Swedish FSA Stress (Oct 2010) Riksbanken Stress (May 2011) Swedish FSA EBA Adverse (July 2011) flooredActual (2011 Q2)
Core Tier 1 capital ratio Basel II (unfloored except EBA)
Note: Proposed Swedish Finish 10-12% Core Tier 1
141414
●
SEB’s home markets relatively less affected
●
SEB retains resilience and flexibility
●
Deep-dive: balance sheet, funding and liquidity
●
Strategic priorities remain
1515
Other Lending
Equity
Household lending
Net Bond PortfolioFunding, remaining
maturity >1 year
Funding, remaining maturity <1 year
Deposits from the public
Net Trading Assets
Cash & Lending Financial Institiutions
Deposits Financial Institutions
Assets Equity & Liabilities
Liquid assets
“Banking book”
Stable funding
Short-term funding
Strong structural liquidity in the group balance sheet
+140bn
16
-450 +572 +679(Credit
provisions)
149%
100%
24% 16% 21%
177%
115%
27% 19% 23%
222%
108%
43%23% 23%
243%
145%
45%
20% 26%
Loan to deposit ratio Loan to deposit ratio(excl mortgage lending)
Wholesale funding toassets ratio
Wholesale funding toassets ratio (excl
mortgage lending)
Senior unsecured towholesale funding ratio
SEB Nordea Swedbank SHB
1616
SEB has the lowest wholesale funding and senior funding dependence 30 June, 2011
Source: Enskilda
17
Loans to deposit ratio excl repos and bonds, %
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Q1 2011Q2
141%
Importance of growing deposit base
Development of deposits from the general public at fixed exchange rates1 (SEK bn)
0100200300400500600700800900
Q2 2006 Q4 2006 Q2 2007 Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q4 2008 Q2 2009 Q4 2009 Q2 2010 Q4 2010 Q2 2011
Total Deposits Corporate SectorDeposits Private Sector Deposits Public Sector
+53
1 Pro-forma adjusted throughout due to divestment of German Retail
18
Strong structural liquidity situation in the two most important business areas
Balance sheet structure (H1 2011)
Residential Mortgage
Loans
Other Loans
Swedish Covered Bonds
Retail Customer Deposits
Funding Gap
Lending Funding
Retail banking Sweden
Corporate Customer
Loans
Public Deposits
Corporate Customer Deposits
Funding Gap
Lending Funding
Merchant banking1
323
90
209
174
440
31
300
1. Excluding repos
and reclassified bonds
51
Ger Cov. Bonds
30 58
19
Funding gaps and other lending is funded with medium-term Senior bonds
88
12
25
100
Required Funding Actual Funding
Combined Funding Gap Issued SchuldscheinsOther Lending Senior Unsecured Bonds
413 383
30
Retail Lending Retail Funding Retail FundingGap
440382
58
MB Lending MB Funding MB Funding Gap
•
Baltic
•
Wealth
•
Other
•
Retail
•
Merchant
Banking
Average duration (years):
3.0
5.3
H1 2011
20
Matched funding. Note this is a cash flow based model where assets and liabilities are mapped to contractual maturities. SEB will manage more than 2 years without any new funding if the loans and liabilities mature without prolongation.
SEB’s matched funding horizon (number of months)
SEK 84bn LT funding raised in Jan-Aug 2011 vs. FY maturity of SEK 98bn
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q108
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111
Q2
Extended match-funding in Q2 ahead of potential summer break-down
2121
32.6 40.2 34.7
22.423.1
39.520.1
4.4
13.7
9.92.1
2011 Maturities 2011 Issuance(Jan-Aug)
2012:Q1Maturities
2012:Q2Maturities
2012:Q3Maturities
2012:Q4Maturities
Senior unsecuredCovered Bonds, non-SEK, SEB ABCovered Bonds, SEK, SEB ABOther
84
513
49
3
98
Net funding position: Allows for sustained periods of no market access Long term debt
dynamics, SEK bn
22
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Loans to the public Deposits and borrowing from the public
USD Loan
Deposit ratioUSD
Loans and deposits (SEK bn)
100% 112% 80% 86% 131% 72% 99%
Funding of Loan Deposit Gaps and Other Assets
224 bn
62 bn
11 bn
Loan Deposit gap in SEK
Loan Deposit gap in EUR
Loan Deposit gap in NOK
Net Trading Assets in all currencies
165 bnSEK Total Wholesale Funding
226 bnEUR Total Wholesale Funding
7 bnUSD Long-term Wholesale Funding
130 bnUSD Short-term Wholesale Funding 146 bn
N.B. not in balance since the illustration does not include all currencies
Stable USD deposits and trading/liquid assets
2323
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Jan-
09
Feb-
09
Mar
-09
Apr-
09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug-
09
Sep-
09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Mar
-10
Apr-
10
May
-10
Jun-
10
Jul-1
0
Aug-
10
Sep-
10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr-
11
May
-11
Jun-
11
Net Trading Assets CPs/CDs
Sho
rt-te
rm
fund
ing
1. CPs/CDs 2. Net Trading Assets excluding Derivatives
Net
Tra
ding
A
sset
s
Short-term funding moves in line with Net Trading Assets Short-term funding1
vs. Net Trading Assets2
2009-2011 (SEK bn)
24
Well-diversified Liquidity Reserve across asset type and currency
*Overcollateralisation
net of Moody’s requirement for AAA rating (13.5%)
**Swedish Bankers Association (Bankföreningen)
External vs. Internal Liquidity Reserve definitions (SEK bn) June 2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
SBA**/SEB CoreReserve
SEB ExtendedReserve
Total SEB LiquidResources
Bank Deposits GVT BondsPublic bonds Covered bonds Non-financials FinancialsOther
283
367
467
OC*
Net Trading Assets
SEB Core Reserve by currency (SEK bn) June 2011
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
SEK EUR USD Other SEB CoreReserve
Bank Deposits GVT BondsPublic bonds Covered bondsNon-financials FinancialsOther
27
157
85
14
283
24
252525
●
SEB’s home markets relatively less affected
●
SEB retains resilience and flexibility
●
Deep-dive: balance sheet, funding and liquidity
●
Strategic priorities remain
2626
Exploit core strengths
Maintain flexibility & resilience
Corporates in Nordics & Germany Universal bank in Sweden & Baltics
Priorities for 2011
2727
Loans and commitments:
Large corporates Nordic and German expansion* continues
27
Large cap clients:
Client executives:
+91bn
Top FX-provider Best supplier of Trading and Capital Markets Operations
Mandated lead arranger EUR 1,300m
Mandated lead arranger EUR 2,000m
MLA/bookrunner
EUR 750m
MLA/bookrunner
EUR 2,000m
Best Sub-custodian Bank Best Supply Chain Finance Provider
+94
+136
Best Bank
Best M&A House
Best Cash Management House
* Statistics since launch of expansion 1 Jan 2010
28
Priv
ate
SM
Es
** Cash management SME customers
+7bn private deposits
48% fixed-rate
mortgages
+0.1% market share
gain
per month
5,000 new SME customers**
+17bn Private Banking AuM
inflow
No. SME customers**
Mutual fund sales Sweden***
*** Cumulative incl PPM (Svensk Fondstatistik)
+14bn new lending
volume
* Statistics for H1 2011
020,00040,00060,000
80,000100,000120,000
2005 2007 2009 Q2 2011
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
2005 2007 2009 2011
SEB
SMEs and private customers Meeting
customers’
advisory
needs*
292929
Balance sheet strength ensures SEB can continue to support customers
Elevated short-term macroeconomic risks
SEB maintains its strategic direction and growth plans are on track
Outlook 2011