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1 1 Anders Kvist Head of Group Treasury SEB Handelsbanken Large Cap Seminar Stockholm 12 September 2011

Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

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Page 1: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

111

Anders KvistHead

of Group Treasury

SEB

Handelsbanken Large Cap Seminar

Stockholm

12 September 2011

Page 2: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

222

SEB’s home markets relatively less affected

SEB retains resilience and flexibility

Deep-dive: balance sheet, funding and liquidity

Strategic priorities remain

Page 3: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

3

European sovereigns SEB’s home markets enjoy strong sovereign finances

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

GreeceItaly

BelgiumIreland

PortugalGermany

FranceUK

HungaryAustria

MaltaNetherland

CyprusSpain

PolandFinlandNorway

LatviaDenmarkSweden

LithuaniaSlovenia

LuxemburgEstonia

Sovereign debt, % of GDP

-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2

IrelandGreece

UKSpain

PortugalPolandLatvia

LithuaniaFrance

SloveniaNetherlands

CyprusAustria

ItalyHungaryBelgium

MaltaGermanyDenmark

FinlandLuxemburg

SwedenEstonia Norway

Deficit, % of GDP

Source: As of end 2010

Page 4: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

4

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

In May 2011In Aug 2011

GDP growth forecast SEB's home markets and Eurozone, in per cent

Forecast for 2012Forecast for 2011 Forecast for 2013

Source: Nordic Outlook August 30 2011

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Sweden

Norway

Denmark

Finland

Germany

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Eurozone

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Page 5: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

5

Lending still growing

Swedish lending growth (y-o-y) Nordic corporate lending growth (y-o-y)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Non-financial Companies and HouseholdsCorporate lending

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Sweden NorwayDenmark Finland

Source: Central banks, as of July 2011Source: Statistic Sweden, as of July 2011

Page 6: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

6

Swedish house market cooling off

Mortgage lending growth (y-o-y) House price development, index

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Source: Valueguard HOX IndexSource: Statistic Sweden, as of July 2011

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Houses Sweden Houses StockholmHouses Gothenburg Houses MalmoeFlats Sweden Flats StockholmFlats Gothenburg Flats Malmoe

Houses

Flats

Page 7: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

7

Conclusions

On an absolute and relative basis, SEB operates in a region which continues to show strong performance

The stress in the financial markets is markedly lower than in the rest of Europe

The uncertainty on the future impact is nevertheless high

7

Page 8: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

888

SEB’s home markets relatively less affected

SEB retains resilience and flexibility

Deep-dive: balance sheet, funding and liquidity

Strategic priorities remain

Page 9: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

9

Q2 financial wrap-upProfit and loss development Q2-09 – Q2-11 (SEK bn)

Operating income Operating expenses Net credit lossesQ2-11 Q2-11 Q2-11

Operating profit (SEK bn)

3.6

Highlights from results:

Divisional pre-provision profit Q2 vs. Q1 +7%

Group total income H1-11 vs. H1-10 +7%

Customer-driven NII Q2 vs. Q1 +7%

Negative result effects in Q2:

NII: SEK 50m German hedge QoQ, SEK 70m investment portfolio, SEK 100m funding & liquidity

NFI: SEK 200m portfolio valuations directly related to GIIPS exposures

4.3

Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11

9.55.9

0.6

Page 10: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

10

Active downsizing of bond exposure to GIIPS countries

26

2119 18 17 16

Jun2010

Sep2010

Dec2010

Mar2011

Jun2011

Jul2011*

GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn

Bank bonds2%

ABS28%

Covered bonds59%

Sovereign bonds11%

Majority in Spanish covered bonds

Limited in relation to total Bond portfolio

Other95%

GIIPS5%

* 8 July

Page 11: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

11

0

5

10

15

Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11

Non Net Interest Income Net Interest Income

12.5

8.09.6

8.4

11.910.8

9.1 9.2 8.7 9.2

59%59%64%54%60%49%58%52%59%53%

41%41%36%46%

40%51%42%

48%41%47%

8.9

53%

47%

Total operating income split between Non-NII and NII

10.0

55%

45%

9.7

44%

56%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11

Custody, mutual funds, net life, payments cards, lendingNew issues & advisory, secondary market and derivatives

Underlying market shares render stable and growing commission and net life incomeSEK bn

SEK bn

44%

56%

9.5

Well-diversified revenue streams

Page 12: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

12

SEB’s financial position – 2008 vs. H1 2011

Core Tier 1*

Matched funding

Leverage ratio (FDIC)

2008 2009 2010 Jun 2011

8.6%

11.7% 12.8% 13.5%13.5%

23x18x 17x 16x16x

7 months

17 months 18 months26 months26 months

Bond inv portfolio

SEK 133bnSEK 90bn

SEK 48bn SEK 34bnSEK 34bn

* Basel II without transitional floor; 2010 pro forma for disposal of German retail

NPLs SEK 15bn

SEK 29bn SEK 24bn SEK 22bnSEK 22bn

12

Page 13: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

13

Capitalisation more than adequate Summary of stress tests

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

2010 2011 2012 2013

Swedish FSA Stress (Oct 2010) Riksbanken Stress (May 2011) Swedish FSA EBA Adverse (July 2011) flooredActual (2011 Q2)

Core Tier 1 capital ratio Basel II (unfloored except EBA)

Note: Proposed Swedish Finish 10-12% Core Tier 1

Page 14: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

141414

SEB’s home markets relatively less affected

SEB retains resilience and flexibility

Deep-dive: balance sheet, funding and liquidity

Strategic priorities remain

Page 15: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

1515

Other Lending

Equity

Household lending

Net Bond PortfolioFunding, remaining

maturity >1 year

Funding, remaining maturity <1 year

Deposits from the public

Net Trading Assets

Cash & Lending Financial Institiutions

Deposits Financial Institutions

Assets Equity & Liabilities

Liquid assets

“Banking book”

Stable funding

Short-term funding

Strong structural liquidity in the group balance sheet

+140bn

Page 16: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

16

-450 +572 +679(Credit

provisions)

149%

100%

24% 16% 21%

177%

115%

27% 19% 23%

222%

108%

43%23% 23%

243%

145%

45%

20% 26%

Loan to deposit ratio Loan to deposit ratio(excl mortgage lending)

Wholesale funding toassets ratio

Wholesale funding toassets ratio (excl

mortgage lending)

Senior unsecured towholesale funding ratio

SEB Nordea Swedbank SHB

1616

SEB has the lowest wholesale funding and senior funding dependence 30 June, 2011

Source: Enskilda

Page 17: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

17

Loans to deposit ratio excl repos and bonds, %

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Q1 2011Q2

141%

Importance of growing deposit base

Development of deposits from the general public at fixed exchange rates1 (SEK bn)

0100200300400500600700800900

Q2 2006 Q4 2006 Q2 2007 Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q4 2008 Q2 2009 Q4 2009 Q2 2010 Q4 2010 Q2 2011

Total Deposits Corporate SectorDeposits Private Sector Deposits Public Sector

+53

1 Pro-forma adjusted throughout due to divestment of German Retail

Page 18: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

18

Strong structural liquidity situation in the two most important business areas

Balance sheet structure (H1 2011)

Residential Mortgage

Loans

Other Loans

Swedish Covered Bonds

Retail Customer Deposits

Funding Gap

Lending Funding

Retail banking Sweden

Corporate Customer

Loans

Public Deposits

Corporate Customer Deposits

Funding Gap

Lending Funding

Merchant banking1

323

90

209

174

440

31

300

1. Excluding repos

and reclassified bonds

51

Ger Cov. Bonds

30 58

Page 19: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

19

Funding gaps and other lending is funded with medium-term Senior bonds

88

12

25

100

Required Funding Actual Funding

Combined Funding Gap Issued SchuldscheinsOther Lending Senior Unsecured Bonds

413 383

30

Retail Lending Retail Funding Retail FundingGap

440382

58

MB Lending MB Funding MB Funding Gap

Baltic

Wealth

Other

Retail

Merchant

Banking

Average duration (years):

3.0

5.3

H1 2011

Page 20: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

20

Matched funding. Note this is a cash flow based model where assets and liabilities are mapped to contractual maturities. SEB will manage more than 2 years without any new funding if the loans and liabilities mature without prolongation.

SEB’s matched funding horizon (number of months)

SEK 84bn LT funding raised in Jan-Aug 2011 vs. FY maturity of SEK 98bn

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Q108

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q111

Q2

Extended match-funding in Q2 ahead of potential summer break-down

Page 21: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

2121

32.6 40.2 34.7

22.423.1

39.520.1

4.4

13.7

9.92.1

2011 Maturities 2011 Issuance(Jan-Aug)

2012:Q1Maturities

2012:Q2Maturities

2012:Q3Maturities

2012:Q4Maturities

Senior unsecuredCovered Bonds, non-SEK, SEB ABCovered Bonds, SEK, SEB ABOther

84

513

49

3

98

Net funding position: Allows for sustained periods of no market access Long term debt

dynamics, SEK bn

Page 22: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

22

-120

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Loans to the public Deposits and borrowing from the public

USD Loan

Deposit ratioUSD

Loans and deposits (SEK bn)

100% 112% 80% 86% 131% 72% 99%

Funding of Loan Deposit Gaps and Other Assets

224 bn

62 bn

11 bn

Loan Deposit gap in SEK

Loan Deposit gap in EUR

Loan Deposit gap in NOK

Net Trading Assets in all currencies

165 bnSEK Total Wholesale Funding

226 bnEUR Total Wholesale Funding

7 bnUSD Long-term Wholesale Funding

130 bnUSD Short-term Wholesale Funding 146 bn

N.B. not in balance since the illustration does not include all currencies

Stable USD deposits and trading/liquid assets

Page 23: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

2323

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

Jan-

09

Feb-

09

Mar

-09

Apr-

09

May

-09

Jun-

09

Jul-0

9

Aug-

09

Sep-

09

Oct

-09

Nov

-09

Dec

-09

Jan-

10

Feb-

10

Mar

-10

Apr-

10

May

-10

Jun-

10

Jul-1

0

Aug-

10

Sep-

10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr-

11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Net Trading Assets CPs/CDs

Sho

rt-te

rm

fund

ing

1. CPs/CDs 2. Net Trading Assets excluding Derivatives

Net

Tra

ding

A

sset

s

Short-term funding moves in line with Net Trading Assets Short-term funding1

vs. Net Trading Assets2

2009-2011 (SEK bn)

Page 24: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

24

Well-diversified Liquidity Reserve across asset type and currency

*Overcollateralisation

net of Moody’s requirement for AAA rating (13.5%)

**Swedish Bankers Association (Bankföreningen)

External vs. Internal Liquidity Reserve definitions (SEK bn) June 2011

0

100

200

300

400

500

SBA**/SEB CoreReserve

SEB ExtendedReserve

Total SEB LiquidResources

Bank Deposits GVT BondsPublic bonds Covered bonds Non-financials FinancialsOther

283

367

467

OC*

Net Trading Assets

SEB Core Reserve by currency (SEK bn) June 2011

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

SEK EUR USD Other SEB CoreReserve

Bank Deposits GVT BondsPublic bonds Covered bondsNon-financials FinancialsOther

27

157

85

14

283

24

Page 25: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

252525

SEB’s home markets relatively less affected

SEB retains resilience and flexibility

Deep-dive: balance sheet, funding and liquidity

Strategic priorities remain

Page 26: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

2626

Exploit core strengths

Maintain flexibility & resilience

Corporates in Nordics & Germany Universal bank in Sweden & Baltics

Priorities for 2011

Page 27: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

2727

Loans and commitments:

Large corporates Nordic and German expansion* continues

27

Large cap clients:

Client executives:

+91bn

Top FX-provider Best supplier of Trading and Capital Markets Operations

Mandated lead arranger EUR 1,300m

Mandated lead arranger EUR 2,000m

MLA/bookrunner

EUR 750m

MLA/bookrunner

EUR 2,000m

Best Sub-custodian Bank Best Supply Chain Finance Provider

+94

+136

Best Bank

Best M&A House

Best Cash Management House

* Statistics since launch of expansion 1 Jan 2010

Page 28: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

28

Priv

ate

SM

Es

** Cash management SME customers

+7bn private deposits

48% fixed-rate

mortgages

+0.1% market share

gain

per month

5,000 new SME customers**

+17bn Private Banking AuM

inflow

No. SME customers**

Mutual fund sales Sweden***

*** Cumulative incl PPM (Svensk Fondstatistik)

+14bn new lending

volume

* Statistics for H1 2011

020,00040,00060,000

80,000100,000120,000

2005 2007 2009 Q2 2011

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

2005 2007 2009 2011

SEB

SMEs and private customers Meeting

customers’

advisory

needs*

Page 29: Large Cap Seminar Stockholm - SEB Group · 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011* GIIPS Bond portfolio holdings, SEK bn. Bank bonds 2% ABS 28% Covered bonds 59% Sovereign

292929

Balance sheet strength ensures SEB can continue to support customers

Elevated short-term macroeconomic risks

SEB maintains its strategic direction and growth plans are on track

Outlook 2011