LBA-ECO Synthesis and Integration

LBA-ECO SSC

14 November 2005

LBA-ECO 9th Business Meeting

• Synthesis Leadership Groups– Five group leaders selected by NASA through

proposals– One group induced by – Group meetings on Friday and Saturday– Brief reports by leaders

• These are not the exclusive areas for LBA-ECO synthesis.

LBA-ECO 9th Business Meeting

• Synthesis Leaders– Define products– Assign tasks– Set deadlines

• Leaders reported– What, when, and by whom– Workshops dates

Synthesis Groups

• Forest Disturbance – Chambers/Higuchi• *Fires & Drought – Cardinot/Brando/

(Nepstad)• Intensive Agriculture –

Steudler/Bustamante (Melillo)• Scaling Carbon Fluxes –

Saleska/Rocha/A. Nobre/Shimabokuru• Land-Water Coupling – Richey/Krusche• Land Use – Alves/Batistella (Moran)

LBA-ECO Synthesis: Forest Disturbance

• Leaders: Jeff Chambers, Niro Higuchi• Topics:

– Regional tree mortality evaluation– Remote sensing methods for disturbance– Modeling the consequences of disturbance

• Workshops:– June 2006, May 2007

• Products:– Not yet defined

Tree Mortality Probability Distribution Function

What is the spatial dimension to mortality events?

The temporal and spatial distribution of mortality events at the landscape scale can have important control over regional carbon balance.

What is the frequency of catastrophic events?

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rela

tive

freq

uenc

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mortality rate (% stems yr-1)

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ativ

e F

requ

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Mortality event size (% of stem)

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Development of a PDF for all event size classes

Probability Distribution Function

Event Class Fine Scale Fine-Mid Scale Mid-Scale Large Scale

Size One tree to 5% mortality 5 to 50% mortality

50 to 100% and < 1 ha 100% and > 1 ha

Methods Forest Inventory Plots Ikonos, Quickbird

Hyperion Landsat

Researchers

RAINFOR, LBA, others Palace Chambers, Asner Asner, Souza, Nelson, Roberts

Disturbance Effects on Carbon Dynamics in Amazon Forest:A Synthesis from Individual Trees to Landscapes

• Workshop 1 – Tulane University, New Orleans, Late June 2006– (i) developing a consistent basin wide dataset of tree mortality

dynamics from inventory plot data– (ii) exploring different remote sensing methods for detecting

intermediate-scale (~0.1 to 5 ha) canopy gaps – e.g. blowdowns, selective logging.

– (iii) comparing modeling approaches of forest response to gap disturbance

• Workshop 2 – Tulane University, New Orleans, Late May 2007– (i) exploring a general forest response framework across the natural

to anthropogenic disturbance gradient– (ii) comparing various remote sensing methods for detecting a range

of disturbance types and processes– (iii) evaluating modeling approaches for simulating this disturbance

gradient

LBA-ECO Synthesis: Fires and Drought

• Leaders: Gina Cardinot/Paulo Brando (Daniel Nepstad)

• Topics: (see following slide)

• Workshop Proposed:– February 2006

• Products:– Synthesis paper on Acre Drought and Fire

Emergency?

Extensive Burning of Forests and Open Areasin Southwestern Amazon of Brazil, Bolivia and Peru

August – October 2005. Declarations of State of Emergency

RioBranco

Cruzeiro do Sul

Cobija

Puerto Maldonado

Pucallpa

100 kmRiberalta

ACRE/BR – STATEOF EMERGENCY

PANDO/BO – STATEOF EMERGENCY

MADRE DE DIOS/PE– STATE OF EMERGENCY

BENI/BO – STATEOF EMERGENCY

Components:

- Burned area quantification

- Big fire detection

- Biomass accumulation

- Smoke = Health, Aerosols

- Human dimensions

- Hydrology

- Climate data

Synthesis of knowledge about droughts and fires in Amazonia: Case study of the 2005 drought and fire impacts on Acre

LBA-ECO Synthesis: Intensive Agriculture

• Leaders: Paul Steudler/Mercedes Bustamante (Jerry Melillo)

• Topics: (Wait for Editors Session)• Workshops Proposed:

– August 2006 – Revise Biogeochemistry and Case study chapters

– June 2007 – Cross cutting chapters

• Expected Products:– Book: Recent Agricultural Transitions in the Amazon

Basin and their Biogeochemical Consequences

LBA-ECO Synthesis: Land Water Coupling

• Leaders: Jeff Richey/Alex Krusche• Topics:

– Land-water coupling– Riverine carbon pools and fluxes– Effects of human influence and climate change

• Workshops Proposed:– March 2006– March 2007

• Expected Products:

PACH

PAR

JAU+

RG/FVA JUR

MOJU

COLLEAGUE SITES

FPZF2MAO

PAL AF

RB

JI-P

BEL

SGC

REDE BEIJO RIO 1o SITES

Task 2. PROJECTS ND-31 TG-30 ND-11LC-31CD-33 ND-30 LC-32 & Amigos

Workshop 1 : Land-Water Coupling

March 2006

1. Refinement of synthetic questions

2. Delivery of cleaned data sets

3. Deadline for model readiness

Workshop 2 : Land-Water Coupling

March 2007

4. Cross site analysis

5. Model analysis

6. Water resource integrated assessment, decision support framework tools

7. Jeffrey Richey guarantees completion by December 31, 2007.

LBA-ECO Synthesis: Scaling Carbon Fluxes

• Leaders: Scott Saleska, Antonio Nobre, Humberto da Rocha, Yosio Shimabokuru

• Topics:– Integrated eddy flux dataset– Model testing– Remote sensing extrapolation

• Workshops Proposed: – November 2006 at INPA

• Expected Products:

Caxiuana

São Gabriel Cachoeira

Sinop

Scaling Carbon Fluxes with models and remote sensing

Eddy flux data from a dozen towers spans:

• 1.5 – 3.5 m annual precip

• from 0 - 21S

• from primary wet forest to Cerrado, including pasture and agricuture sitesGoals for Data

• Cross-site comparisons of ecosystem properties

• parameterize and test models

• data-grounded extrapolations with remote sensing

EXAMPLE: Remote sensing Data (MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI) shows that

broad areas of Amazon forest “green up” in the dry season:Green-

up region Brown-

down region

Source: Huete, Shimabukuro et al., (in review)

Eddy flux tower site

Dry seaso

n

Satellite & tower both show dry season “green-up”

Sate

llite

EV

I (

bla

ck s

qu

are

s)

Primary Forest (average annual cycle, 6/2001-6/2004)

2001 2002

Converted land, monthly series (Pasture, then Farm after plowing)

plowing

Dry seaso

n brow

n-down

Dry seaso

n brow

n-down

pasture Rice farm

EXAMPLE: Santarem region ground-test: satellite observations (MODIS EVI)

vs. Tower-based GPP

Tow

er

GP

P (

kg

C h

a-1

mo

-1)

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Jan Apr Jul Oct

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Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan AprMonth of average year

Dry seaso

n

(Sakai et al., 2004)

(Saleska et al., 2003; Xiao et al 2005)

Humberto’s ProblemBEFORE AFTER

LBA-ECO Synthesis:• Leaders: Diogenes Alves, Mateus Batistella (Emilio

Moran)• Topics:

– Scaling up of Para and Rondonia case studies– Synthesis of Human Dimensions research (to be refined…l)

• Workshops Proposed: – 2006 (April to June) Belem + Course on Human Dimensions of

LUCC

– 2007 (June to August) Manaus + Course on Human Dimensions of LUCC

• Expected Products:– Book or Special Issue for HD Synthesis

Participants and Resources

• Emilio Moran (IU), Mateus Batistella (EMBRAPA), Diogenes Alves (INPE), Eduardo S. Brondizio (IU), Dengsheng Lu (IU), Leah VanWey (IU), Flavio Luizao (INPA), Regina Luizao (INPA), Daniel Hogan (UNICAMP), Alvaro d’Antona (UNICAMP/IU), Larissa Chermont (UFPA)

• Draw on HD contacts and lessons from previous LBA/HD initiatives:

• * B.K. Becker’s survey of social/human sciences production• * HD workshop in Ubatuba (May 2004): Diogenes Alves,

Mateus Batistella, Bertha Becker (UFRJ), Eustaquio Reis (IPEA), Roberto Araújo (MPEG), Wanderley Costa (USP), Ademar Romeiro (UNICAMP), Paulo Egler (ABC), Francisco Costa (NAEA/ADA) + Tatiana Schor (UFAM)

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Def pre-1969 Def 1970-85 Def 1985-91 Def 1991-95 Def 1995-00P

erce

nta

ge

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tota

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efo

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nRiverine community 1Riverine community 2Riverine community 3Cooperative_upland community 1Cooperative_upland community 2Cooperative_upland community3Region, Ponta de Pedras area

Colonist Population Cohorts

Deforestation, Amazon and Pará State

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<1972 1972-79 1979-86 1986-91 1991-2001

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Amazon Para

Deforestation, Santarém

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<1972 1972-79 1979-86 1986-91 1991-2001

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Deforestation, Altamira

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<1972 1972-79 1979-86 1986-91 1991-2001

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Deforestation, Marajó

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<1972 1972-79 1979-86 1986-91 1991-2001

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Deforestation Rates

Concluding LBA ECO

2006 2007 2008

LBA Conference

AGU

LBA ECO 10

LBA

ECO

11?

Fire/Drought

Land-Water

Tree Mortality

Agriculture

Flux/Scaling

Forest Disturbance

Agriculture

Land-Water

HDLC