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Learning Based Project Management

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Page 1: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Learning Based

Project

Management

Page 2: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Stage-Gate New Product Development Process

Initial

Screen

Second

Screen

Decision

on

Business

Case

Post-

Development

Review

Pre-

Commercialization

Business

Analysis

Ideation Preliminary

Investigation

Detailed

Investigation

(Build Business

Case)

Development Testing &

Validation

Full Production

& Market Launch

Post

Implementation

Review

Idea Gate

1

Stage

1

Gate

2

Stage

2

Gate

3

Stage

3

Gat

e

4

Stage

4

Stage

5

Gate

5

PIR

Source: Robert G. Cooper, Winning at New Products, Addison-Wesley 1993

Page 3: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

D1

D2

D3 D4 D5

Diaper tapes Shell material for

disposable diapers

Technology in search

of market applications

D6

Project in limbo. Develop-

ment work suspended.

New flurry of develop-

ment activity for agri-

cultural applications.

D7

D8

New applications sought

through major corporate

PR campaign.

D9

Project transferred

to business unit.

Multiple applica-

tions are pursued.

RI Lifecycle: Dupont Biomax® Detail

Page 4: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Project Discontinuities (T, M, R, O)

Category Discontinuity Cases in which the

discontinuity occurred

Technical 1. Major setback in technology development,

application development, or manufacturing

process development

All projects except NN

2. Technical breakthrough: major leap forward All projects

Market 3. Assumption about attractiveness of a

particular application space turns out to be false

AD, DPbio, IBMSiGe,

NN, TI

4. Market test of prototype fails or has

disappointing results

DPbio, IBMbook,

5. Successful close of key customer AD, DPbio, IBMSiGe, TI

6. Major potential customer provides positive

testimonial that grabs senior management

attention

DPbio, IBMSiGe, NN,

Page 5: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Project Discontinuities (T, M, R, O)

Category Discontinuity Cases in which the

discontinuity occurred

Organizat

ional

7. Loss of champion (permanently or

temporarily)

GM, NN, TI, UTC

8. Change of attitude in business unit AD, DPbio, GE,

IBMbook, IBMSiGe,

9. Change of project manager AP, AD, DPbio, GM,

IBMbook, TI

10. Change in senior management AP, NN, P, TI, UTC

11. Change in SBU management GE, IBMbook

12. Transition in project phase / home All except GM,

IBMbook, and P.

13. Change in corporate level priority re:

innovation

AP, Dpemit, Dpbio, NN,

P, UTC

Page 6: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Project Discontinuities (T, M, R, O)

Category Discontinuity Cases in which the

discontinuity occurred

Resource 14. Major loss of funding DPbio, GE, GM, TI

15. Major gain of funding AP, AD, DPemit, DPbio,

GE, GM, IBM SIGe,

NN, P,

16. Failure to close alliance deal DPemit, DPbio, NN, P

17. Failure of partner in technical

development or manufacturing

GE, GM

18. Successful close of key partnership

deal or acquisition

AP, AD, DPemit, GE,

IBMSiGe, NN

19. Addition of key team member, e.g. a

research fellow

AP, AD, DPbio,

IBMSiGe, NN, TI

20. Loss of a key team member who was

difficult to replace

AP, AD, DPbio, GM,

IBMSiGe, NN, P, TI

Page 7: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Three Dimensions of Project Uncertainty

Categories of

Uncertainty

Technical

Market

Resource

Organization

Late

ncy

Un

anti

cipat

edA

nti

cip

ated

Routine -Showstopper

Criticality

Dimension 1

Dimension 2

Dimension 3

Page 8: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Categories of Uncertainty (T, M, R, O)

Issues Cases in Which the Uncertainty

Arose over the Course of the

LifeCycle.

What technical features does this

breakthrough innovation enable?

What should the technical specifications

be?

What additional technical developments

are required to implement technical

objectives?

What approach will we adopt to achieve

those objectives?

In what form will the product or process

be presented to the customer?

How will the product or process be

produced?

AP, Dpemit, Dpbio, GE, GM,

IBMSiGe, NN, TI

All cases except UTC

All except NN

AP, Dpemit, Dpbio, GE, GM,

IBMbook, IBMSiGe, P, TI

AP, GE, GM, IBMbook, P, TI

All cases except UTC

Te

ch

nic

al U

nce

rta

inty

Page 9: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Categories of Uncertainty (T, M, R, O)

Issues Cases in Which the Uncertainty

Arose over the Course of the

LifeCycle.

How do we know this pursuit is worth

the effort?

How can the project team learn about

potential new markets that may not yet

exist?

What is the value proposition?

What will be our initial application(s)?

What is the economic model for the

venture? How will we make money?

What sales and distribution

infrastructure must be developed to

support the business model?

AP, Dpbio, IBMbook,

IBMSiGe, NN, P

AP, AD, Dpbio, IBMbook, NN,

P, TI, UTC

All cases

All except DPEmit, GE, GM

All except GM

AP, Dpemit, Dpbio, GM,

IBMSiGe, NN, P, TI

Ma

rke

t U

nce

rta

inty

Page 10: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Issues Cases

What capabilities must the project team

embody?

Who should lead the project team? How do we

recruit these individuals?

How do we deal with unanticipated changes in

the team and changes required by the maturation

of the project?

How do we define the relationships with the rest

of the organization – the business development

entity, if it exists; one or more business units;

central R&D; senior corporate management?

How do we stay on the radar screen of corporate

management?

How do we manage the expectations of senior

management? Of the receiving operating unit?

If the project does not have a natural home in an

existing operating unit, what organizational

structure should be formed to run this business?

What will be the oversight process for the

project? Who will implement it? How will it

change over time?

How do we manage the interfaces with internal

and external partners?

AP, AD, DPEmit, Dpbio, GM,

IBMSiGe, NN, P, TI

AP, AD, Dpemit, Dpbio, GM,

NN, P, TI

AP, AD, DPEmit, Dpbio, GM,

IBMSiGe, NN, P, TI

AP, AD, Dpbio, GE, Gm,

IBMBook, IBMSiGe, P, UTC

GE, GM, IBMbook, NN, P, UTC

All cases

AD, Dpbio,GM, IBMBook,

IBMSiGe, NN, P, TI, UTC

AP, DPBio, GE, GM, IBMSiGe,

NN, P, UTC

AP, AD, Dpbio, Dpemit, GE,

GM, IBMbook, IBMSiGe, NN, P,

TI

Org

an

iza

tio

na

l U

nce

rta

inty

Page 11: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Categories of Uncertainty (T, M, R, O)

Issues Cases in Which the

Uncertainty Arose over the

Course of the LifeCycle.

What resources and competencies are

required to complete the project tasks?

Which of these are currently available to us?

How should we acquire missing resources

and competencies – through internal

development or partnering?

What amount of funding do we need for

next steps and how do we access it?

Who are potential partners and how do we

form partnerships?

What is the smartest method to use for

managing those relationships?

All Cases

All Cases

All Cases

All Cases

AP, Dpemit, Dpbio, GE,

GM, IBMbook, IBMSiGe,

NN, P, TI

AP, Dpemit, GE, GM, NN,

P

Re

so

urc

e U

nce

rta

inty

Page 12: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Latency and Criticality Dimensions of Uncertainty

Cell 2:

Unanticipated but

Routine

Cell 4:

Unanticipated

Showstopper

Cell 1:

Anticipated and

Routine

Cell 3:

Anticipated

Showstopper

Criticality

Low High

Low

High

Late

ncy

Page 13: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

13

Cell 1: Anticipated and Routine

• Can be converted into assumptions at the outset

• Incorporate into an assumptions testing plan that guides the project team’s ongoing activity:– From the outset of IBM’s electronic book project, it was

understood that dramatic advances in display resolution would be required before consumers would convert from traditional paper books to e-book counterparts. So part of the project effort aimed at implementing a display technology development plan.

– GM’s hybrid vehicle team understood that significant advances in battery technology were critical to their success.

– Nortel’s Channelware project team realized that they would have to determine which software customers would be willing to rent rather than buy.

– Air Products knew that it would need a partnership with a ceramics R&D firm to gain access to materials expertise.

Page 14: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

14

Cell 2: Unanticipated but routine

• These uncertainties can be converted into assumptions as they occur and can be incorporated into the periodic revisions to the assumptions testing plan that guides ongoing activity.

– In one initial field application of DuPont’s Biomax®, the material degraded too quickly. This flaw was not known in advance but was addressed through routine procedures for modifying the material’s characteristics.

– In Nortel’s Channelware project, one of the project team members had to take a leave of absence for health reasons. His departure created an uncertainty, but could be resolved in routine fashion by recruiting a new team member with similar expertise.

Page 15: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

15

Cell 3: Anticipated Showstopper

• A critical discontinuity or transition that can be anticipated and is amenable to

planning and preparation. Requires the development or acquisition of people,

resources, competencies and relationships.

– Most of the projects utilized government R&D funding for technology

development, and these contracts had clear end dates. Project teams knew

in advance that new sources of funding had to be developed if they hoped

to carry their projects forward.

– Some projects, if successful, were clearly destined to become part of an

existing business unit. In these cases, the project teams knew that they

would have to accomplish the hand off to the business unit or the project

would languish.

– In some projects, the retirement date for the project champion was

announced and another champion would need to be recruited if the project

were to continue.

• These kinds of discontinuities can be anticipated. Project teams can make

preparations to deal with them.

Page 16: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

16

Cell 4: Unanticipated Showstopper

• Discontinuities that inflict major shocks to the project. Project level life or death crises: require rapid, aggressive responses to prevent loss of organizational support.

– In one case, project continuation was dependent on enlisting a manufacturing partner. After a thorough search, the best candidate partner was identified and a “courtship” ensued. After a year of negotiation, however, the potential partner abruptly pulled out. The project team headed into its annual evaluation uncertain of continuation of its funding.

Page 17: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Latent and Derivative Assumptions: Example Fact Pattern

• DT Corp specializes in communications hardware technologies for the home market. They need a new business platform.

• A corporate venture team has been tasked to identify and develop a new platform for release Q1 2009.

• Challenge: Leverage our current technologies into the small-medium business market.

• The CV team considers an adapted version of the intercom used in large homes, with added features:– Digital Displays

– Records communications exchanges

– Communications can be blasted or targeted

– Can be integrated with video for use on screens in meeting rooms

– Limited to within building communications for now, but platform strategy is to develop cross building communications mechanisms

• CV team is asking for money to test the idea out and move forward with incubation.

Page 18: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Elevator Pitch

The Interactive Intercom system leverages DT Corp’s technology into a whole new platform for growth: the Business customer. Enabling two way communication and broadcast communications, in sync with data or video on screens across the building’s meeting rooms simultaneously may be beneficial for companies needing to disseminate information broadly or get decisions made based on a broad constituency in the company. The recording feature enables documentation that communications were effectively transmitted and that decisions were, in fact, made.

The market potential for these systems is DKK 2.1 billion ($US 350 million), and annual technology upgrades add more promise. If DT Corp were to realize 5% market share, we would enjoy DKK 105 million ($US17.5 million) from this venture in the first year, which would account for a 20% growth spike in our revenue. Given that the technology already exists, costs would be minimized, and our ROI is estimated to be approximately 18% for the first year.

Page 19: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Latent Assumptions????

Page 20: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Latent Assumptions????

• Can make this happen by Q1 2009.

• Can use same sales force???

• We understand the buying cycle in small-medium businesses.

• Technology that’s useful in the home market is readily adaptable to the business environment.

• Can divert engineering resources to get this developed.

Page 21: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

• Derivative Assumptions??

• Accompanying Primary Assumptions???

Page 22: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Derivative Assumptions

• Market Potential is $350 million

• 5% market share

• $17.5million in revenue

• Costs will be minimized, so can achieve 18% ROI.

Accompanying Primary Assumptions

• # of potential users? Price?

• What value does the market see in this? Why would even 5% adopt it? What will be the advertising that supports us getting 5%?

• Based on what price?

• Howso? Engineering development? Mktg costs?

Page 23: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Learning Approach: T M R O

As of (Date)

Status: What is Known?

Uncertainties: What is Unknown? Code re: latency and criticality and need to

attend in this period.

Assumptions Being Made. Primary (expressed in terms of market, value,

customer benefit terms), not derivative (expressed in financial terms), per Sykes

and Dunham 1985.

Detail Several Approaches to Test Each Assumption, and associated cost and

people required of each approach. Select the most effective test, where

effectiveness is a function of learning per dollar and unit of time invested.

To Do List: Delegate tasks and timetables for conducting test.

Objectives/Evaluative Criteria for the Test. How do you know if the test was

successful or not?

Learning Outcomes:

What have we learned? Have we converted assumptions into knowledge?

How does this learning impact the other categories (T, M, R, O)?

How does this learning impact overall project progress/risks?

How does learning influence next steps?

Learning Plan Template

Page 24: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Clarify Uncertainties –Management Checklist (I)

Categories Technical

Uncertainty

Market

Uncertainty

Resource

Uncertainty

Organization

Uncertainty

Uncertainty

Focus

Understanding

technology drivers,

value and economic

feasibility

Learning about

market drivers,

value creation and

business viability

Accessing money,

people and

organizational

competencies

Gaining and

maintaining

organizational

legitimacy

Areas to

Consider

-Completeness and

Correctness of

Underlying

Scientific Knowledge

-Articulation of New

Benefits that are

Enabled

-Potential for Multiple

Market Applications

-Potential Cost Saving

Advantages

-Approaches to Solving

Identified Technical

Problems

-Manufacturing and

Software Development

Requirements

-Scalability at

Acceptable

Economics

-Clarity of Value

Proposition

-Size of Business

Potential

-Initial Market Entry

Application and

Follow-on

Applications

-Initial Customer

Partners

-Other Required

Value

Chain Agents

-Existence of Other

Technical/Potential

Competitive

Solutions

-Business Model

Appropriateness

-Availability of Internal

and External Funding

-Project Requirements

For Money, Team

and Partnerships

-Project Lead Choice

-Team Competencies

Aligned with Project

Requirements

-Talent Attraction and

Development

-Competency Acquisition

In-House or External

Partnerships

-Partnership Identification,

Formation and

Management

-Ongoing Assessment of

Current Partnerships as

Project Matures

-Strategic Context for

Innovation

-Commitment of Senior

Management

-Relationships with

Internal Stakeholders

-Potential Organizational

Resistors

-Influence with Corporate

Strategy/ Management

-Expectations of Senior

Management and

Transitioning Units

-Organizational Design

-Project Home and

Reporting Structure

-Nature of Project

Guidance Process

Page 25: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

2.1 Clarify Uncertainties –Management Checklist (II)

Categories Technical

Uncertainty

Market

Uncertainty

Resource

Uncertainty

Organization

Uncertainty

Uncertainty

Focus

Understanding

technology drivers,

value and economic

feasibility

Learning about

market drivers, value

creation and

business viability

Accessing money,

people and

organizational

competencies

Gaining and

maintaining

organizational

legitimacy

Potential

Flaws and

Fatal Flaws or

Showstoppers

-Technology Proof of

Concept Setback

-Prototype Limitations

-Cost Disadvantages

-Technology and/or

Application

Development Issues

-Development Process

Major Issues

-Market

Attractiveness Turns

Out to be False

-Market Test of

Prototype Fails or

Disappointing

-Inability to Secure

Appropriate Customer

Partner

-Lack of robustness,

depth, scope and/or

number of new

capabilities offered

resulting in limited or

constrained market

applications

-Inappropriate time

horizon for new

Market Creation

-Major Funding Loss due

to Reversal of Overall

Corporate Performance

-Project Team Limitations

-Inability to Attract

Required Talent

-Lack of Partnership

Strategy

-Failure of Alliance Deal or

Technical Partner

-Undefined Partnership

Exit Conditions

-Loss of Champion

-Change in Senior

Management and/or

Strategic Intent

-Change in Senior

Champion/Sponsor

-Transfer of

Responsibilities at

Project

Transition

-Lack of Strategic

Marketing

Communications

-Inappropriate Portfolio

and Project Metrics

-Insufficient Runway to

Demonstrate Business

Results

Page 26: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

A Hypothetical Example……

Galactic Travel Corporation

Page 27: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Business Concept

We believe we have a way to transport living beings nearly instantaneously from one specific location to any other specific location in the galaxy. This would alleviate traffic congestion, waiting, and the costs associated with other forms of transportation infrastructure. We believe we have the capability to temporarily decompose an individual into his/her unique molecular structure, transport the molecules through space (and perhaps time) using electro-chemical and magnetic fields as our energy source, and recompose them upon their arrival at their destination.

We believe this could revolutionize transportation as well as societal infrastructure, enabling gatherings of members from across the globe and, indeed, the galaxy, as well as individuals to go wherever they want instantaneously.

We face a number of technical challenges, chief among which is the reassembly upon arrival, but believe this can be overcome. We are asking for a go ahead to take the next steps in exploring this opportunity.

Page 28: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Learning Loop 1

• For each category

– List knowns (provide source)

– List unknowns/assumptions

– Work on latency

• Identify Criticality

– Devise tests for most critical ACROSS the

four categories

– Develop time/budget requirements

Page 29: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Technical Issues?

• Knowns (+ Evidence)

– Our composition is knowable (DNA sequencing is

now available)

– Living beings can be decomposed using cryogenics

technology, like freeze drying. (this has been done

with mice..it’s in the literature).

– Physical things can be built atom by atom, because of

the existence of atomic force microscopes and

demonstration of atomic precision manufacturing at

the nano-scale level.

– Experiments in plasma physics have indicated that

techniques exist for directed movement of molecules.

Page 30: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Technical Unknowns

1. What will the quantum effects of this be? 1. Assume: Chaotic movement of the decomposed molecules.

2. How do we transport the molecules while maintaining a blueprint for reformation?

1. Assume: We can find a way to send information along with the molecules.

3. How do we keep the molecules together during transport?

1. Assume: We can develop a boundary.

4. How fast can we get the molecules to travel?1. Assume: At least the speed of light (allows for instantaneous

travel).

5. How far a distance can molecules be transported in a directed manner?

1. Assume: Infinitely far.

Red = Critical Assumptions

Page 31: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Market

Knowns:1. The cost of individual transportation is escalating (gasoline

prices).

2. There is a strong lobby against applying cryogenic technologies to humans (recent news)

Unknowns/assumptions:1. Potential application markets that may value this:

1. CIA, FBI

2. Major corporations (helps global corporate communications).

3. NASA (for space exploration)

4. Who else??

2. People will value the time savings.

3. How manage potential fear of mistakes?

4. They will be willing to invest in necessary transportation equipment.

5. They will be willing to pay both a fixed investment component and a usage fee component. Note….this one is way too early. Not necessary for LL1. We have no idea yet.

Page 32: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Resource

Known1. We have a core team with expertise in

transportation methodologies.

2. We have no capabilities in decomposition or recomposition of living matter.

3. We have no capabilities in developing blueprints of individuals’ composition.

Unknown1. Who might be potential partners for #2 and #3

above?

2. What will be required to engage them in this project?

Page 33: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Organizational Issues

Knowns:

1. We are a transportation company. (Annual report).

2. Senior leadership is committed to white space opportunities. (Recent podcast)

3. Sr VP of largest division (personal transport) has resisted previous innovations that will cannibalize his current businesses (trains, plane rental)

4. We are committed to service based business models. (per recent strategy statements)

5. We have never successfully co-developed anything with a partner. (Experience review).

Unknowns:

1. How do we manage the issue of cannibalization?1. Assume that recent commitment from the top (#2 above) means actions will

be taken to protect this project from #3 problem above.

2. Do we want to sell equipment? Or service? Or both?1. Assume service only.

3. Are we prepared to partner? Or are we going to try to vertically integrate into decomposition, re-composition and blueprinting?

1. Prepared to partner.

4. Is senior leadership prepared to move into this particular strategic domain of transportation?

1. Assume yes.

Page 34: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Technical Issues

Knowns Evidence

1. …

n

Unknowns Assumptions Test/Action Accountability Status Learning

1….

n

Market Issues

Knowns Evidence

1…

n

Unknowns Assumptions Test/Action Accountability Status Learning

1…

n

Resource Issues

Knowns Evidence

Unknowns Assumptions Test/Action Accountability Status Learning

1…

n

Organizational Issues….

Page 35: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

LL1 Milestone Review and LL2 setup….

Page 36: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Technical Tests and Learning

1. How do we transport the molecules while maintaining a blueprint for reformation?

1. Assume: We can find a way to send information along with the molecules.

As of 5/29/08: Got 2 partners. One developed a blueprint based on DNA sequencing (biology), and the other from a fingerprint scan. DNA sequencing more accurate….Fingerprint scan more cost effective.

Next steps: What is the potential for cost reduction with partner #1 and what is the potential for increasing accuracy with partner #2? (Are these the most Critical on the list of technical uncertainties? Do these impact the other dimensions of uncertainty?)

• How do we keep the molecules together during transport?• Assume: We can develop a boundary.

As of 5/29/08: Ran two tests:

a. Control existing forces in a manner that would allow cohesive transport (Vanderwall’s forces, Electron density forces)

b. Apply something physical to the decomposed cryogenized matter, e.g. a nano-coating sealant.

Both test failed.

Next steps: Rather than taking a cryogenic approach to decomposition, convert the matter to energy using plasma physics. Explore properties of Debye Spheres.

Emergent Uncertainty: Can we do this while maintaining the blueprint to enable re-composition?

Page 37: Learning Based Project Managementhomepages.rpi.edu/~oconng/CAT/Project Mgmt Under High Uncertainty...Learning Based Project Management. ... Assumption about attractiveness of a

Market Tests and Learning

1. Potential application markets that may value this:1. CIA, FBI

2. Major corporations (helps global corporate communications).

3. NASA (for space exploration)

4. Who else??

As of 5/29/08:

A presentation at a technical conference by one of our scientists regarding the potential for plasma physics to play a role in transportation, along with presentation of initial data demonstrating plasma as a medium for carrying cryogenic material drew attention from an Air Purification company. They believe this can have major applications in moving specific types of particles that occur naturally in some geographies to other, locations that need such particles.

New Uncertainty (Organizational)…Is this a business we want to get into?

Two major corporations (Pepsico and Google) have expressed interest in a demonstration device.

New Uncertainties…• When will we have a demo device? (T).

• How structure the arrangments with these two companies? (R)?

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Resource Tests and Learning

1. Who might be potential partners for #2 and #3

above? (re-composition and blueprints?)

2. What will be required to engage them in this

project?

As of 5/29/08: Have identified a potential partner for #2

above, but cannot convince them to engage with us.

Continuing to look for others.

Have found university center working on #3. Have

joined that center.

New Uncertainty: What will be our IP position given our

work with the university? Assume we will want

exclusive ownership (R, O)

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Organizational Tests and Learning

• Are we prepared to partner? Or are we going to try to vertically integrate into decomposition, re-composition and blueprinting?

Assume we’re prepared to partner.

As of 5/29/08.. Yes, permission to partner on decomposition and re-composition, but not on blueprinting. Keep that as a new domain and build competency. (Note interaction with IP issue raised above).

Emergent Uncertainty: How get access to necessary talent for blueprinting: Assume: Hire from the university whose center we just joined.

2. Is senior leadership prepared to move into this particular strategic domain of transportation?

Assume yes.

As of 5/29/08.. Discussion with senior leadership indicates enthusiasm about the military applications for now. (Impacts M).

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Project:______________________________ Disagree

(0)

Neutral

(1)

Agree

(2)

Part I – Elevator Speech

1. Value proposition was clear.

2. Speech was delivered in two minutes or less.

Sub-Total

Part II – Learning Plan Process

1. The business opportunity is clearly described.

2. The technology benefits are listed.

3. Application spaces are identified.

4. The team has interacted directly with the market.

5. The team conducted adequate secondary research.

5. Strategic linkages are considered.

6. The four uncertainties are covered.

7. A realistic milestone plan has been developed.

8. Resource requirements are identified.

9. Next learning steps are prioritized.

Sub-Total

Learning Loop Review Board Coaching & Evaluation Template

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Disagree

(0)

Neutral

(1)

Agree

(2)

Part III—Project Progress

1. The business opportunity is an exciting one.

2. The technology benefits are multitudinous.

3. The technology benefits are an order of magnitude

beyond what is currently available.

4. The project is gaining traction in the market at the

level that is needed.

5. The linkages to the organization’s strategic intent

continue to strengthen.

6. The next technical hurdles have been clarified and

the tasks needed to address them are doable.

7. The next market hurdles….

8. The next resource hurdles …..

9. The next organizational hurdles…

Sub-Total

Learning Loop Review Board Coaching & Evaluation Template

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Disagree

(0)

Neutral

(1)

Agree

(2)

Part IV—Presentation Style

1. The level of content was appropriate for a review

board.

2. The presentation delivery was well paced.

3. The presentation was professional.

4. The contributions of the team were acknowledged.

Sub-Total

Total

Part V– Additional Feedback and notes

Learning Loop Review Board Coaching & Evaluation Template

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Process

• Team works from a business concept.

• With coaching, initiates first learning loop.– Flipcharts, markers, and concentrated time.

• End of session: critical uncertainties and tests. Timeline and budget request to complete tests.

• At test completion…project review/work session.– Update on learning

– News on redirection.

– New uncertainties that emerged.

– Next critical uncertainties, tests and budget requirements.

– The team drives the project direction. No pre-determined Gates.

• Three to four learning loops…can tell if you’re gaining traction and should continue.

• Conduct a learning plan for each application and Discovery Driven plan for each one that appears interesting.

• Outcome: Business Proposal.

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Learning Plan Outcome: Business Proposal

Areas To Consider Breakthrough and Radical Innovation Projects

Product/Service

Overview

Brief History, Champions, Potential Market Applications;

Tested & Pursued, Technical Feasibility

Value Proposition Strategic Fit or Stretch, Potential Value of Technology,

Potential Customers & Value

Market Opportunity Industry and Market Trends, First Market Application, Plans

for Follow on Applications, Potential Financial Value -Order

of Magnitude

Competitive Landscape Potential Competitors, Possible Competitive Offerings,

Potential Competitive Advantage

Potential Business

Models

Value Chain Analysis, Competency Assessment,

Partnership Opportunities, Potential Revenue Flows and

operating model economics

Learning Plan

Outcomes, and Risk

Assessment

Identify Assumptions, SWOT across Technical, Market,

Organizational and Resource Categories (all likely to be

higher to high risk)

Recommendations and

Next Steps

Recommend Deployment Path, Identify Funding

Requirements, Critical Milestones, Risk Mitigation Plan and

Transition Issues

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Project Management Tools Throughout DIA

Learning Plan Business Proposal

Business Plan

Discovery Driven

Plan Tested Business Proposal

Implement Biz

Proposal

Opportunity

Articulation (Opp

Rec Framework) Business Concept

Stage GateDiscovery

IncubationAcceleration

Operations