Learning from Brexit and Trump to help you succeed in a ... · Trump to help you succeed in a changed world June 2017. ... • Network building based on preference-proximity. 3x Less

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential

britainthinks.com

Learning from Brexit and Trump to help you succeed in a changed world

June 2017

2BritainThinks | Private and Confidential

Here’s a recap of what happened on both sides of the pond…

The votes in both countries revealed a generation gap: the older you were, the more likely you were to vote Trump or for Brexit


A recap of what happened

45%

44%

50%

55%

53%

53%

42%

37%

65+

45-64

30-44

18-29

Clinton Neither Trump

40%

43%

44%

52%

62%

73%

60%

57%

56%

48%

38%

27%

65+

55-64

45-54

35-44

25-34

18-24

Remain Leave

But don’t forget that roughly 2 in 5 under-45s voted Trump in the US, and 25-34 year olds for Brexit in the UK

Rural and small communities tended to vote Brexit and Trump, with big cities tending to vote for Clinton and to Remain in the EU



59%

45%

34%

35%

50%

62%

City over 50,000

Suburbs

Small city or rural


Generally, those with fewer qualifications preferred Brexit in the UK, and Trump in the US



58%

49%

43%

45%

37%

45%

52%

51%

Postgrad study

College graduate

Some college/associate degree

High school or less


68%

48%

50%

30%

32%

52%

50%

70%

Degree

Higher below degree

A level

GCSE or lower

Remain Leave

This difference was (even) more pronounced in the UK than in the US

White voters were more likely to support Brexit and Trump, with support for both much lower among BAMEs



56%

65%

65%

88%

37%

37%

29%

29%

8%

58%

Other

Asian

Hispanic

Black

White


And attitudinally, Trump and Brexit voters were united in feeling more pessimistic than optimistic about the future of their country



54%

31%

59%

39%

63%

38%

About the same

Worse than life today

Better than life today


Life for future Americans will be…

25%

90%

69%

8%

Off track

Right direction

Trajectory of the country…

NET agreement that…

2.8million non-voters swung it

But the two stories differ on turnout – and particularly on the mobilisation of disenchanted, apolitical non-voters



Democrat

Republican


The two results – and the campaigns that preceded them – offer some big

watch outs for communicators…• Some are new slants on old issues• Some highlight things we already knew but had perhaps forgotten• Some of them feel new and very different to what’s gone before


#1 Check your bias

We were applying and projecting our own values both before the votes, when we chose to hear what we wanted to hear…


#1 Check your bias

Economists projecting their own uncertainty onto their predictions:

The analysis & interpretation of the opinion polls in the run-up to the Referendum:

“In the end, we couldn’t predict public

confidence at all. Because the vast majority of

economists thought that Brexit was a bad idea

… they put their own views onto the population

as a whole and thought the public would tighten

their belts and spend less and that’s why you

got the forecasts for an immediate downturn.”

Chris Giles, Financial Times on More or Less

78%

27%22%

63%

0%

10%

Phone polls Online polls

Remain leads Leave leads Ties

…and used the arguments that would convince ‘us’ not ‘them’


#1 Check your bias

REMAIN CAMPAIGN:

“Trading is about stuff,

but we don’t make

goods any more, our

industry is in decline.”

“I don’t see how it

helps me – I’m not a

trader, I don’t have

stocks and shares.”

‘NORMAL’ VOTER:

Starting from a place of limited understanding of not just trade, but also

business and the economy

“The EU buys over 50 per

cent of UK exports: 54% of

goods and 40% of services”

…and used the arguments that would convince ‘us’ not ‘them’


#1 Check your bias

DEMOCRAT RESPONSE TO TRUMP’S COMMENTS ON WOMEN:

TRUMP MOVING ON THE CONVERSATION:

THE MISSED OPPORTUNITY?

Family?

Tradition?

Gentlemanliness?

But we’re still doing it now, with an ongoing assumption that voters will ‘see sense’ eventually


#1 Check your bias

How many in the Westminster ‘bubble’ are describing Brexit:

How voters – including many Remainers – are describing Brexit:

"When I heard we

had ‘gone Brexit’ I felt

like England had won

the World Cup!"

68%of the British public think that we should go ahead with Brexit

YouGov, Nov 2016


#2 Get yourself a “change [back]” message

Both successful campaigns of 2016 were headed by a big, capacious message


#2 Get yourself a ‘change [back]’ message

“We’ve got to stop this madness,

cut all that red tape and

regulation and take the reigns!”

“Mass immigration is still

hopelessly out of control

and set to get worse if we

remain inside the EU”

Which were about ‘them’, not ‘you’



Which were about ‘them’, not ‘you’



“‘Go Global’ [was] a firm favourite for

many years among a subset of MPs and

Farage’s inner circle (Leave.EU adopted

this as its first slogan) and a total loser

with the public.”Dominic Cummings’s Blog

And which speak to a desire to change – while not pitching everyone into an uncertain future



Both speak to a sense of nostalgia for the past……but also a sense of direction and where they want to go, alluding to

specific values and policies


#3 Start talking values (not just value)

Both Trump and Brexit cut across many traditional socio economic divides



Some leavers are ‘left behind’• Nothing to lose• Economically

and culturally challenged by immigration

But a great deal aren’t ‘left

behind’• Driven by desire

for greater sovereignty

• Driven by practical ‘cutting red tape’ argument

• Culturally challenged by immigration

But it does seem that there are some really big values which unite some previously divergent groups



Eric Kaufmanm for the Fabian Society

And for the first time, the Trump and EU votes have given these heterogeneous groups clear tribes to belong to



“The Trump rally was the most fun I have had in years.

Trump would say. ‘What am I going to build?’ and we

would say ‘A wall!’… It was fun to lighten up, to cheer

along with everyone else, just like back in high school,

when we would cheer that our teams were definitely

going to win, even when they were bad”

And an opportunity to define themselves against what they aren’t…Whether against the liberal, metropolitan elites of New York or Washington, London or

Leeds or the ‘left behind’ of Sunderland or Scranton

The more we talk about these divides as if they’re monolithic, the more likely they are to become totemic and embedded



But it also presents a risk…

“We will defend the Britain we love…(and of course we’ll oppose the expansion of

Heathrow too)”

This may present some ‘quick win’ opportunities

That by continually describing these divides we are only serving to

reinforce them and make them ‘real’ -and overlook the real complexities


#4 Embrace Super Selectivism

Online Selection

A lot of people are talking about the ‘echo chamber’



Confirmation Bias

Super Selectivism+ =

“The human understanding when it has once adopted

an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as

being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to

support and agree with it.”Francis Bacon, 1620

The “filter bubble” works in (at least) two ways



Hard-Wired Selection• Personalised search &

recommendation algorithms

• Targeted advertising & messaging

• Timeline editing

Social Selection• Social networking as

news source• Recommendations from

friends• Network building based

on preference-proximity

3xLess likely to

see liberal content

10%Less exposure to conservative news sources

Gentzkow & Shapiro: 2011


The filter bubble isn’t all bad

It makes it easier than ever to speak to – and energise – people who are already with you



BUT it makes it very hard to understand the actual extent of your support, or your opponents

If you want to reach new audiences, you need to think about new messages, channels and messengers



Start from where people are, not where you wish they were


Check your bias#1The two results – and the campaigns that preceded them –offer some big watch outs for communicators…

Get yourself a “change [back]” message#2Start talking values (not just value)#3Embrace Super Selectivism#4

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential

britainthinks.com

Thank youFor more information:

Georgie Whiteley+44 (0)207 845 [email protected]

BritainThinksSomerset House StrandLondon WC2R 1LA

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Learning from Brexit and Trump to help you succeed in a ... · Trump to help you succeed in a changed world June 2017. ... • Network building based on preference-proximity. 3x Less