Lesson 5 Planning and Scheduling

7/29/2019 Lesson 5 Planning and Scheduling

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Lesson 5: Project planning andscheduling

Lesson 5: Project planning andscheduling

Coverage:

Project planning: Process, technical tools

and common pitfalls

Project time management: estimates and

scheduling

Overview of CPM and PERT techniques

Project scheduling with resources

constraints

Project time-cost trade-off

Reading: PMBOK2000, chapters 4 and 6Case study: Nightingale A and B

SM91.02 Management L6- 2

Objectives

At the end o f the sess ion, you shou ld be ab le to:

Understand the role of good project planning, and the basicplanning framework

Describe the common mistakes made in project planning

Describe and differentiate the CPM and PERT techniques inscheduling, their development, applications and limitations

Prepare a schedule for project activities, with or without

resources const raints, possibly using Excel and MS Projectsoftware

Use CPM method to analyze the time and cost trade-off

Address some scheduling problems facing task durationuncertainty


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Project planning

Planning: analytically thinking ahead and working out in details: Which goals and objectives to be achieved

Which activities to be carried out and how

Which resources will be needed and how to get and organize these resources

How to ensure the proj ect to be completed and the objectives achieved?

Why Planning:

Insure goal achievement

Improve effective utilization of resources

Help control and monitor progress

Promote communication /co-ordination

Motivate people

Get finance for project

Be prepared to address and control the risks

Failing to plan is planning to fail(PM folklore)


Steps in project planning

Define

objectives

Define work

Organize Plan resources

SchedulePlan for

Control & risks

Detailing the

project design


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The project plan

Elements of project planning

WBS and work analysis and description specifications of

outputs and completion criteria

Organizational structure and responsibil ity assignments

Project schedule and key milestones

Budget and cost accounts disbursements and resource

mobilization plan

Performance monitoring, project control system and risk

management

Al l these elements may be summarized into a common

template


A carelessly p lanned project will take three timeslonger than expected;

A careful ly planned project wi ll take only tw ice aslong.

(Law #7 of project management, PM folklore)

Laws of project management


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The basic project scheduling Purpose: To put the projects activities in a timeframe:

To ensure feasible implementation

To ensure fastest completion poss ible

To help in monitoring and cont rolling the implementation

Input :

The activity list (or WBS)

Acti vi ty durat ion estimate

Acti vi ty precedence relationship

Independent activiti es: can be carried out simultaneously

Precedence relationship: one can start after the other fin ishes

Assumptions: The input is known and determinist ic, and theresources are available unlimited

Output Gantt chart of activities with slacks, critical activiti es and milestones

Other schedule-related p lans (resource loading charts, personnelassignments, control schedule, etc.)


Representation of the activi typrecedence relationship

Table format: List of predecessors (or fo llowers) for each of the

activities

Activi ty-on-node diagram: a network diagram where

Nodes represent the activities

Arrows link ing nodes represent the p recedence relat ionships

Activi ty-on-arc diagram: a network diagram where

Arrows represent the act iv it ies

Nodes (heads and tails of arrows) represent the events precedencerelationships (starts and ends of activit ies)

Some advance features available on MS Project:

Other types o f precedence relations: FF, SS, SF

Lags and leads between the succeeding activiti es


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Class example:Introducing new product to the market

Af ter R&D, a confectionary company has started theproduction of a new product line. The managementconsiders introducing the new product into market as anindependent project to emphasize the accountability.

The scope of the project inc ludes setting up the salesforces, distribution network and advertisement.Production line is not part of the project scope butpackaging the product including design of the packagesand setting up packaging facilities is.

The project w ill be cons idered as completed after thecompletion of the 10 week adverti sement campaign andwhen the packaged products are shipped to thedistribu tors, ready for sales.


Example: WBS with precedence table

L10wM. Conduct the advertisement campaign

4w

2w

6w

6w

9w

7w

4w

6w

13w

6w

10w

2w

---E. Hire sales manager

Setting up sale

forcesEF. Hire sales personnel

FG. Train sales personnel.

EH. Select the distributors f or the new product linesSetting u p

distribution

network.

---D. Order and ship the product s from w arehouse for packaging

B, DC. Running the packaging facility

AB. Setting up packaging facility

---A. Design t he di fferent packages to be used.

Packaging.

KL. Plan the advertising campaign with the ad agency.

EK. Select advertising agency.

Adverti sement.

C, IJ. Ship the packaged products to the distri butors

G, HI. Negotiate and sign contract wi th the selected distributor s


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Example: the precedence diagram

A2 C6B10 J6

D13

H9 I6

F4 G7

E6 L4K2 M10

Start Finish


Results of scheduling

Basic output of the CPM scheduling

Gantt chart of the activities with feasible schedule and

shortest completion time possible

Slacks available for the activities

List of critical activities

Other results:

Resource util ization schedule (or loading charts)Cost schedule


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Illustration:scheduling at a construction project

J une July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May J une J uly Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec J an Feb Mar April May J une

1 100%

2

90%

3 80%

70%

4

60%

50%

5

40%

6 30%

20%

7

10%

0%

MONTHLY 0.08 0.61 0.9 2.24 2.97 3.21 4.23 6.23 5.7 8.01 8.84 7.13 8.17 8.05 5.87 5.48 4.55 4.55 4.16 2.82 2.82 2.81 0.57

ACCUMULATION 0.08 0.69 1.59 3.83 6.8 10.01 14.24 20.47 26.17 34.18 43.02 50.15 58.32 66.37 72.24 77.72 82.27 86.82 90.98 93.8 96.62 99.43 100

QC-1 ZONE PROJECT CONTROL CHART AT ITALIAN_THAI

PROGRESSION OF CONSTRUCTION WORK FOR 400 UNITS ATHLETE VILLAGES

No Description1996 1997 1998

P.C FACTORY

GROUP 1 (Building C1-C4)

Foundation work

Installation P.C panelArchitecture and systemwork

Utilities

GROUP 2 (Building A1-A3)

Foundation work

Installation P.C panelArchitecture and systemwork

UtilitiesGROUP 3 (Building C5,C6,C8,D1)

Foundation workInstallation P.C panel

Architecture and systemwork

UtilitiesGROUP 4 (Building C7-C11)

Foundation work

Installation P.C panel


Utilities

GROUP 5 (Building B1,B3,B4,B7)

Foundation work



Utilities

GROUP 6 (Building B2,B5,B6,B8)

Foundation work


Architecture and systemworkUtilities

PROPOSAL (%)


Project crash scheduling

Crash scheduling is scheduling to complete the project in a shorter time thannormally expected.

Crash scheduling is a quite common reality of pro ject management, especiallywhen:

The project has a late kick-off but st ill has to race to complete in time

The project has some delays in implementation and now has to speed up tomeet the deadline.

Basic principles of crash scheduling

Consider crashing critical activities within acceptable cost

Crash gradually (step by step) until the new deadline is met, always choosethe least cost way of crashing

Review the precedence relationships of activities to see if we can relax onsome (or replacing FS with SS + lag)

Att empt to b reak the long and c ri tical activi ties in to sho rter ones to allowpossible parallel processing


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Project scheduling with resourceconstraints

Purpose: To schedule the activities so that the requiredutilization of any particular resource does not exceed itsavailability.

Guidelines:

Plot the resource loading charts for all critical resources.

When resource requirement exceeds resource availability,try to reschedule the activities, first and preferably usingavailable slacks.

If there are more than one resource needing leveling, do it

one by one. Remark: Scheduling projects with resource constraints is

best done with sof tware like MS Project


Example of resource loading problem

Number of workers available: 10

Find the feasible schedule. What is the completion time?

Job

label

Preceding

jobs

Duration

(weeks)

Required number

of workers

A

B

C

D

E

FG

---

---

---

A

C

AB,D,E

2

6

4

3

5

42

3

5

4

2

4

26


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Project resource leveling

Resource leveling:Process of scheduling activities so that theutilization of critical resources is relatively balanced throughout the

project implementation period.

Advantages:

less hand-on management required

less waste

smooth impl ementation

Resources: can be capital, equipment, facilities, labor etc.


Project resource leveling procedure

Carry out basic scheduling without resource constraints and

prepare the Gantt chart with all activities to be started as soon as

possible.

Prepare load diagram for each resource

Choose one specific resource (the most fluctuating, the most

expensive, or most scarce). Use the slacks to re-schedule the

activities using the resource to level its use over the project.

(Dummy resource limits might be used to impose a re-schedule ofactivities.)

Redraw the load diagram for all resources. Choose the next

resource and repeat the procedure.


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Project time estimates with uncertainties

The challenges of estimating the activities duration:

Usually involves uncertainties and inaccuracies, specially when theproject is new or less familiar

The most likely estimate may have less than 50% chance of success( a skewed distributi on)

Project completion time uncertainty is not the sum of individualactivities uncertainties.

Acti vi ties uncer taint ies may affect the cr it ical path

Problems with estimating uncertain project completion time:

In practice, people tend to overestimate in order to put in safety

80%-chance estimating

5+5=13 phenomenon

viscous circle of over-estimate

Despite the safety in the estimates, most proj ects still face delays

Delays pass on bu t advances not

Parkinsons law


Why do plans fail?

Plans are based on insufficient data or slopp ily developed

Project goals, objectives and specifications are not

understood (or agreed upon) at all levels.

Plans are done by one and executed by another.

Plans have no provis ion for moni toring, control ling and

adjustment.


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Extra materials


CPM and PERT: A quick historical look

Critical Path Method (CPM):

1957

Plant maintenance projects for DuPont

Emphasis on cost /time trade-off

Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

1958

US Navys Polaris Missile System Program

Emphasis on uncertain time estimates


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Some limitations of CPM/PERT techniques

Major problems: Very strong (and sometimes unrealistic)assumptions are required, e.g.

Project is completely defined as a sequence of identifiable

and independent activities with known relationships

Outcomes of the project activities are known in advance

Activi ty times are independent and can be accurately

estimated

Possible solutions

GERT techniqueDiscrete event simulation


Some special techniques

PERT Technique:

Identify the list of activit ies and the precedence relationship

Ask experts to provide th ree estimates for each act iv ity: most likely,optimist , and pessimist. Expected duration is the weighted average ofthese three estimates (with weights 4, 1, 1, corresponding to betadistribution)

Apply the basic scheduling procedure w ith these averages to calcu latethe expected completion time for t he whole project.

Sum up the variances along the critical path to get the variance of thecompletion time estimate, assuming the normal distribution.

Simulation technique:

Assess the probabil ity d is tr ibut ion for each act iv ity

Run the simulation to arrive at the distribution o f the projectcompletion time

Safety will be added only at project level


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Organize

Determine personnel needs

Recruit project manager and team

Organize the project team

Assign works/responsibi li ti es/ authori ties to team

members

Plan for coord ination and communications with other

stakeholders

Tools: Responsibility chart, organizational chart,

information (reporting) flow chart


Financial and resource planning

Estimate the resource requirements for all activities and

integrate into project budget

Set financial control systems (rules, responsibilities, etc.)

Plan for financing (where, when, how much and for what)

Prepare the projects cash flow projections w ith

contingency

Tools: Cash flow analysis, risk analysis


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Scheduling

Estimate time needed to complete each activit y

Define the necessary sequencing relations of activities

Determine starting and ending times for each activity.

Check if other resources are sufficient to finish the tasks

as scheduled. Determine milestones for the project.

Identify critical activities and schedule risks

Determine the time-cost trade-off

Tools: Gantt chart, CPM, PERT


Plan for project control

Define milestones and phased progress measures

Define monitor ing mechanism:

Who, when and how to moni tor progress and performance

Criteria for measuring progress, quality and performance

Ways of collecting data for the measures and assessment

Reporting lines of monitor ing results and mechanism for

corrective actions

Plan resources for monitoring activities

Perform risk management: identify and analyze risks

involved, and outline the strategies to respond to risks

Documents

Lesson 5 Planning and Scheduling