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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
TURKEYPART 4: WILDFIRES
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
TURKEY
ISTANBUL
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN TURKEYDISASTERS IN TURKEY
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN TURKEYDISASTERS IN TURKEY
FLOODS
STORMS
EARTHQUAKES
WILDFIRES
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER NRESILIENT
HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER NRESILIENT
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES
Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters
Planet Earth’s atmospheric-lithospheric interactions create situations favorable for Wildfires
WILDFIRES are conflagrations caused by
lightning discharges (or acts of man) in wilderness areas close enough to one or more urban
interfaces that they threaten people, property, infrastructure, and
business enterprise.
WILDFIRES are conflagrations caused by
lightning discharges (or acts of man) in wilderness areas close enough to one or more urban
interfaces that they threaten people, property, infrastructure, and
business enterprise.
SCIENCE OF WILDFIRES
ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER
HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF RISK FOR ELEMENTS OF RISK FOR STORMS STORMS
ELEMENTS OF RISK FOR ELEMENTS OF RISK FOR STORMS STORMS
EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISKRISKRISK
A WILDFIRE’S HAZARDS
ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS
WILDFIRE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• FIRE
• HOT GASES AND SMOKE
• HOT SPOTS
• BURNED OUT SLOPES (with increased susceptibility to insect infestation, erosion, and landslides)
WILDFIRE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• SUNDOWNER WINDS
• LOCAL CHANGES IN AIR QUALITY
• LOCAL CHANGES IN WEATHER
LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILDFIRES (AKA FOREST FIRES)
WILDFIRES (AKA FOREST FIRES)
MANMADE FIRES
PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA TO THE WILDLAND FIRE
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION (DAY/NIGHT DIFFERENCES)
DRYNESS
HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
DISASTER LABORATORIES
DISASTER LABORATORIES
A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A WILDFIRE INTERACT WITH
TURKEY’S COMMUNITIES
A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A WILDFIRE INTERACT WITH
TURKEY’S COMMUNITIES
A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., wildfires, earthquakes,…) intersect at a point in space and time.
Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause
extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,
joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.
Turkey has a land mass of 77.079 million hectares, of which 26 percent (20.199
million hectares) is forested.
In the period 1937-1996, a total of 60,434 fires burned a
total of 1,464,928 hectares of Turkey’s forest land.
Although the number of fires has continued to increase since 1996,
the area burned has decreased due to the effective use of
technology in transportation, communication and fire
suppression
WOOD FROM THE 1996 MARMARIS WILDFIRE
TURKEY HAS MANY COMMUNITIES THAT ARE AT RISK FROM FREQUENT
WILDFIRES
UNFORTUNATELY, MOST OF TURKEY’S WILDFIRES
ARE MANMADE
DISTRIBUTION OF WILDFIRES
• The distribution of the fires in different regions is as follows:
• 41% of the fires occur in the Aegean;
• 24% in the Mediterranean;
• 22% in Marmara;
• and 13% in other regions
SO, WILDFIRES ARE INEVITABLE EVERY YEAR IN TURKEY
SO, WILDFIRES ARE INEVITABLE EVERY YEAR IN TURKEY
• ---WE DON’T HAVE TO WAIT VERY LONG FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING WILD-FIRE DISASTER RESILIENT.
THE ALTERNATIVE TO A WILDFIRE DISASTER IS
WILDFIRE DISASTER RESILIENCE
THE ALTERNATIVE TO A WILDFIRE DISASTER IS
WILDFIRE DISASTER RESILIENCE
TURKEY’S TURKEY’S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES
TURKEY’S TURKEY’S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES
DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
• WILDFIRE HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
WILDFIRE RISK WILDFIRE RISK
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
WILDFIRE DISASTER WILDFIRE DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS
STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A
COMMON GOAL)
IS THE KEY TO BECOMING STORM DISASTER RESILIENT
STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A
COMMON GOAL)
IS THE KEY TO BECOMING STORM DISASTER RESILIENT
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR WILDFIRES
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR WILDFIRES
• PURPOSE
• ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENTS
• WIN THE FIGHT
• PURPOSE
• ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENTS
• WIN THE FIGHT
• TECHNIQUE
• PRE- AND POST -WILDFIRE ASSESSMENTS
• FOCUS INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL RESOURCES
• TECHNIQUE
• PRE- AND POST -WILDFIRE ASSESSMENTS
• FOCUS INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL RESOURCES
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL WILDFIRES PREPAREDNESFOR THE EXPECTED AND UNEXPEDTED IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL WILDFIRES
EARLY WARN-ING (THE ISS) AND EVACU-ATION ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL WILDFIRES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE