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Links between Toxic in the Air and Children’s School Performance
Presented byDr. Byoung-Suk Kweon, University of Maryland
Other Principal InvestigatorDr. Paul Mohai, University of Michigan
Post-doctoral Research FellowDr. Sangyun Lee, University of Michigan
Sponsor The Kresge Foundation
June 20, 2012
Article in Health Affairs examining air pollution burdens from industrial sources around schools available at:
(http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/30/5.toc)
Locations of 3660 public schools in the State of Michigan
Locations of 594 RSEI facilities in the State of Michigan
Total toxic concentration contours in the state of Michigan (2006 RSEI)
Contours based on accumulated area of 1 km by 1 km grid cells in ascending order of total toxic concentration from 2006 Risk Screening Environmental Indicator
Total toxic concentration contours in the state of Michigan (2006 RSEI and Top 10 Percentile)
Contours based on accumulated area of 1 km by 1 km grid cells in ascending order of total toxic concentration from 2006 Risk Screening Environmental Indicator
Estimating toxic air concentrations from industrial sources within 2 km of schools using areal
apportionment
Mean air toxic concentration within 2 km circle of the school =
∑ %CGi * TCi
%CGi = Percent of area of the 2 km circle captured by grid celli
TCi = Total toxic concentration in grid celli
n
i=1
8
Data obtained from Scorecard: http://www.scorecard.org.
Top 12 chemicals in areas within 2 km of schools
Developmental
Cardiovascular
Carcinogenic
Respiratory
Neurological
Diisocyanates Yes
Manganese Yes Yes
Sulfuric Acid Yes
Nickel Yes Yes Yes Yes
Chlorine Yes Yes Yes
Chromium Yes Yes
Trimethyl-benzene
Yes Yes Yes
Hydrochloric Acid
Yes
Molybdenum trioxide
Yes Yes Yes
Lead Yes Yes Yes Yes
Cobalt Yes Yes Yes
Glycol Ethers Yes Yes Yes Yes
Changes in median air toxic concentrations, 1999-2006
Schools (Metro) = areas within 2 km of schools in Detroit Metro Area Schools (DET) = areas within 2 km of schools in Detroit
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060
90
180
270
360
450
Michigan Metro Detroit Schools (Metro)Schools (DET)
Deciles of TC by land area
(sq km)
Schools All Students
White Students
African American Students
Hispanic Students
Students in Free Lunch
Program
% % % % % %
1st Decile65 16,754 13,228 170 129 57321.8 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.2 1.2
2nd Decile78 23,118 21,793 193 405 7,0432.1 1.4 1.9 0.1 0.5 1.5
3rd Decile95 32,269 30,354 337 537 9,4412.6 2.0 2.6 0.1 0.7 2.0
4th Decile147 50,165 46,124 1173 1370 11,6664.0 3.1 4.0 0.4 1.8 2.4
5th Decile182 71,208 63,349 2074 3,274 15,9785.0 4.4 5.5 0.6 4.3 3.3
6th Decile233 100,045 89,117 4064 3,921 21,3196.4 6.1 7.7 1.3 5.2 4.4
7th Decile268 109,229 87,444 14,545 3,946 28,4707.3 6.7 7.5 4.5 5.2 5.9
8th Decile305 129,906 113,023 8,315 4,700 30,5258.3 8.0 9.7 2.6 6.2 6.4
9th Decile514 233,399 181,574 28,641 10,413 51,64514.0 14.3 15.6 8.9 13.8 10.7
10th Decile1773 863,629 515,839 262,685 47,046 298,98448.4 53.0 44.4 81.5 62.1 62.2
Total 3,660 1,629,722 1,161,845 322,197 75,741 480,803
Deciles of total toxic concentration in Michigan and school-based demographics
Total toxic concentration estimates are based on 2006 Risk Screening Environmental Indicator (RSEI) data.
Schools whose toxic concentration (TC) are greater than their districts’
Deciles of TC by school
%Schools whose TCs exceed their Districts’
Ave. TC of Schools
TC of District
1st Decile 0.00% N.A. N.A.
2nd Decile 10.26% 0.62 0.48
3rd Decile 11.58% 1.25 0.80
4th Decile 17.69% 2.88 1.16
5th Decile 19.23% 4.91 2.11
6th Decile 40.77% 8.54 2.54
7th Decile 31.34% 13.82 4.13
8th Decile 39.34% 20.88 6.96
9th Decile 63.42% 37.01 13.81
10th Decile 91.54% 229.40 22.46
Total toxic concentrations based on 2006 RSEI-GM and are within 2 km of schools.11
Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards for English by percentiles of total toxic concentration
MEAP scores are for 2007. Pollution estimates come from 2006 RSEI. Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards are based on averages across all schools in Michigan.
Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards for math by percentiles of total toxic concentration
MEAP scores are for 2007. Pollution estimates come from 2006 RSEI. Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards are based on averages across all schools in Michigan.
N=2574
English Math
Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2
Beta Beta Beta Beta
Total TC(1-58) — — — —
Total TC(59-86) 0.20*** 0.07*** 0.18*** 0.06***
Total TC(87+) 0.39*** 0.07*** 0.37*** 0.08***
Rural areas — —
Central cities 0.09*** 0.08***
Suburbs 0.06** 0.01
Student attendance rates -0.10*** -0.11***
Total Expenditure per pupil (district) -0.01 0.00
#Students 0.07*** 0.13***
Student/Teacher Ratio 0.03 0.05***
%Free lunch students 0.66*** 0.56***
R2 0.151*** 0.573*** 0.132*** 0.479***
Regression analysis of percent of students not meeting 2007 MEAP standards by total toxic
concentration from 2006 RSEI
* P < .05; ** P < .01; *** P < .001
Respiratory risk contours in the state of Michigan (2005 National Air Toxics Assessment)
Contours based on accumulated area (in square kilometers) of census tracts in ascending order of respiratory risk estimates from 2005 NATA
Respiratory risk contours in the state of Michigan (2005 NATA and Top 10 Percentile)
Contours based on accumulated area (in square kilometers) of census tracts in ascending order of respiratory risk estimates from 2005 NATA
Estimating cancer risk within 2 km of schools using areal apportionment
Mean cancer risk within 2 km circle of the school =
∑ %CTi * CRi
%CTi = Percent of the area of the circle captured by the tracti
CRi = Cancer risk for the tracti
n
i=1
Deciles of respiratory risk by land area (sq km)
Schools All Students
White Students
African American Students
Hispanic Students
Students in Free Lunch
Program
% % % % % %
1st Decile29 4,986 3,876 26 27 12640.8 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
2nd Decile23 5,618 4,681 35 34 2,0730.6 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4
3rd Decile44 10,083 9,230 86 57 2,9711.2 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.6
4th Decile105 25,863 23,950 220 384 9,1802.9 1.6 2.1 0.1 0.5 1.9
5th Decile97 29,960 28,073 347 624 9,6062.7 1.8 2.4 0.1 0.8 2.0
6th Decile144 43,507 40,567 696 1,267 14,7873.9 2.7 3.5 0.2 1.7 3.1
7th Decile197 66,021 60,557 771 3,047 18,6475.4 4.1 5.2 0.2 4.0 3.9
8th Decile289 108,515 98,786 2,289 4,759 26,2147.9 6.7 8.5 0.7 6.3 5.5
9th Decile484 208,595 188,342 7,260 7,513 43,51813.2 12.8 16.2 2.3 9.9 9.1
10th Decile2248 1,126,574 703,783 310,467 58,029 352,54361.4 69.1 60.6 96.4 76.6 73.3
Total 3,660 1,629,722 1,161,845 322,197 75,741 480,803
Deciles of respiratory risk in Michigan and school-based demographics
Respiratory risk estimates are based on 2005 NATA and include major, area, on-road mobile, non-road mobile, and background sources
Percentage of schools whose respiratory risk ratios are greater than their districts’
Deciles of RRR by school
%Schools whose RRRs exceed their
Districts’
Ave. RRR of Schools
RRR of District
1st Decile 18.31% 0.561 0.462
2nd Decile 39.34% 1.015 0.565
3rd Decile 47.27% 1.502 0.724
4th Decile 63.39% 1.965 0.952
5th Decile 63.93% 2.578 1.273
6th Decile 74.59% 3.455 1.474
7th Decile 81.97% 4.436 2.040
8th Decile 93.72% 5.719 1.798
9th Decile 100% 6.966 1.080
10th Decile 100% 8.269 0.913
Respiratory risk ratio is based on 2002 NATA and includes major, area, on-road mobile, non-road mobile, and background sources
19
Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards for English by percentiles of total respiratory risk
MEAP scores are for 2007. Pollution estimates come from 2005 NATA. Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards are based on averages across all schools in Michigan.
Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards for math by percentiles of total respiratory risk
MEAP scores are for 2007. Pollution estimates come from 2005 NATA. Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards are based on averages across all schools in Michigan.
N=2574
English Math
Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2
Beta Beta Beta Beta
Total respiratory risk (1-53) — — — —
Total respiratory risk (54-82) 0.12*** 0.03* 0.11*** 0.02
Total respiratory risk (83+) 0.43*** 0.11*** 0.39*** 0.11***
Rural areas — —
Central cities 0.09*** 0.08***
Suburbs 0.06** 0.01
Student attendance rates -0.16*** -0.17***
Total Expenditure per pupil (district) -0.01 0.00
#Students -0.03* 0.05**
Student/Teacher Ratio 0.05*** 0.07***
%Free lunch students 0.63*** 0.53***
R2 0.168*** 0.629*** 0.139*** 0.504***
Regression analysis of percent of students not meeting 2007 MEAP standards by total respiratory
risk from 2005 NATA
* P < .05; ** P < .01; *** P < .001
Michigan school siting factors
Norton, 2008
Policy implications
• Ensure cooperation among federal, state and local agencies
• Analyze potential school sites• Require minimum distances
between schools and environmental hazards
• Adopt environmental mitigation policies