Upload
corey-palmer
View
220
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Alternatives
• Political Business Cycles (Nordhaus)
• Macroeconomy driven by elections• Manipulation by policy tools to boost
chances• Endogenous election timing a function
of economy (Berument)
Alternatives
• Econometrics and Presidential Elections (Fair)
• Kramer: voter behavior depends on economy
• Republican/Democrat
• V= a1 + a2t + a3I+ a4DPER + a5g*I + a6p*I + u
Alternatives
• Time-for-Change Model (Abramowitz)
• A referendum on the incumbent's performance
• Robust results (2% margin for 2008)
• Noneconomic (political) and economic variables
Alternatives
• Economics and Elections in W. Europe (Chappel, Veiga)
• 13 countries 37 years
• Political responsibility + economic perception
Endogeneity/Exogeneity
• Surfing on the cycles
• Exogenous: create a cycle
• Endogenous: surf a cycle
• The effects of GDP Growth only
The End of Economic Voting?
• Check whether political responsibility is more important through the other theories.