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Local Sourcing Requirement (LSR) and Maximum Capacity Limit (MCL) Calculation Methodology. Peter Wong Manager, Resource Adequacy. RC Meeting May 14, 2009. What is Local Sourcing Requirement and Maximum Capacity Limit?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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DRAFT
Local Sourcing Requirement (LSR) and Maximum Capacity Limit (MCL) Calculation Methodology
Peter WongManager, Resource Adequacy
RC MeetingMay 14, 2009
RC Meeting – May 14, 2009LSR and MCL Calculation Methodology
© 2009 ISO New England Inc. DRAFT
What is Local Sourcing Requirement and Maximum Capacity Limit?
• Local Sourcing Requirement (LSR) is the minimum amount of capacity that must be electrically located within an import-constrained Load Zone to meet the Installed Capacity Requirement (ICR)
• Maximum Capacity Limit (MCL) is the maximum amount of capacity that can be procured in an export-constrained Load Zone to meet the ICR
2
DRAFT
LSR and MCL Calculated According to Section III.12.2 of Market Rule 1, Local Sourcing Requirements and Maximum Capacity Limits*
* For details, please see http://www.iso-ne.com/regulatory/tariff/sect_3/09-4-1_mr1-sect_1-12.pdf
RC Meeting – May 14, 2009LSR and MCL Calculation Methodology
© 2009 ISO New England Inc. DRAFT
Calculation Steps for LSR and MCL
• Model the Load Zone under study vs. the rest of the New England Control Area using the GE MARS simulation model
– Reflect load and resources electrically connected to them, including external Control Area support from tie benefits
– Model the transmission interface constraint between the Load Zone under study and the rest of the New England
– If the system is less reliable than 0.1 days/year Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE), add proxy units that are required in New England to meet the resource adequacy planning criterion of 0.1 days/year LOLE
– If the system LOLE with proxy units added is less than 0.1 days/year
• Firm load is added (or unforced capacity is subtracted)
• Ensure New England system LOLE equals 0.1 days/year
– If the system is more reliable than 0.1 days/year, then keep the system LOLE as is
4
RC Meeting – May 14, 2009LSR and MCL Calculation Methodology
© 2009 ISO New England Inc. DRAFT
Calculation Steps for LSR and MCL, cont.
• Beginning with the New England system days/year – either “as is” or “at criterion” if proxy units are required
– Adjust the firm load within the Load Zone under study
• Until the LOLE of the New England Control Area LOLE reaches 0.105 days/year
• As firm load is added to the Load Zone under study, an equal amount of firm load is removed from (or added to) the rest of the New England Control Area
• Note that New England’s share of tie benefits from New York, New Brunswick and Quebec are considered pre-existing in the rest of New England
5
RC Meeting – May 14, 2009LSR and MCL Calculation Methodology
© 2009 ISO New England Inc. DRAFT
Methodology for Calculating Local Sourcing Requirement
Calculate the LSR for the import-constrained Load Zone in accordance with the following formula
LSRz = Resourcesz + Proxy Unitsz – (Proxy Units Adjustmentz/ (1-FORz)) – (Firm Load Adjustmentz/ (1-FORz))
in which
– LSRz = MW of Local Sourcing Requirement for Load Zone Z
– Resourcesz = MW of resources electrically located within the Load Zone Z, including Import Capacity Resource on the import-constrained side of the interface, if any
– Proxy Unitsz = MW of proxy unit additions in the Load Zone Z
– Proxy Units Adjustmentz = MW of firm load added to (or unforced capacity subtracted from) Load Zone Z until the system LOLE equals 0.1 days/year
– Firm Load Adjustmentz = MW of firm load added (or subtracted) within the Load Zone Z to make the LOLE of the New England Control Area equal to 0.105 days per year
– FORz = Capacity weighted average of the forced outage rate modeled for all resources within the Load Zone Z, including any proxy unit additions to the Load Zone Z
6
RC Meeting – May 14, 2009LSR and MCL Calculation Methodology
© 2009 ISO New England Inc. DRAFT
Methodology for Calculating Maximum Capacity Limit
Calculate the MCL for the export-constrained Load Zone Y in accordance with the following formula
Maximum Capacity LimitY = ICR – LSRRestofNewEngland
in which
–Maximum Capacity LimitY = Maximum amount of resources, including import Capacity Resources on the export-constrained side of the interface, if any that can be procured in the export-constrained Load Zone Y under study to meet the ICR
–ICR = MW of Installed Capacity Requirement for the New England Control Area
–LSRRestofNewEngland = MW of Local Sourcing Requirement for the rest of the New England Control Area, which for the purposes of this calculation is treated as an import-constrained region. LSRRestofNewEngland is determined in accordance with the methodology presented in prior slides
7
DRAFT
LSR and MCL Calculation ExampleUsing ISO Recommended Values for 2012/13 Capability Year
RC Meeting – May 14, 2009LSR and MCL Calculation Methodology
© 2009 ISO New England Inc. DRAFT
Calculation ProcedureLSR for Connecticut
~Existing
37,059 MW
~TB-NY
~TB-HQ
~TB-MT
LOLE = 0.001
~Existing
27,948 MW
~TB-NY
~TB-HQ
~TB-MT
LOLE = 0.001
Rest of NECT
~Existing
9,111 MW
System LOLE < 0.1 with existing resourcesmodeled, proxy units are NOT needed, andno Proxy UnitsAdjustment (PUAz)is required.
Model the transmission interface between CT and Rest of NE. System LOLE remains at 0.001.Because LOLE is less than 0.105, Firm Load Adjustment (FLAz)will be made.
After adding 2,325 MW load to CT and subtracting 2,325 MW from Rest of NE, system LOLE reaches 0.105. LSR for CT is then determined as LSRz = Resourcesz + Proxy Unitsz – (PUAz/ (1 – FORz)) – (FLAz/ (1 – FORz)) = 9,111 + 0 – 0 /(1 – 0.0592) – 2,325/(1 – 0.0592) = 6,640 MW
~Existing
27,948 MW
~TB-NY
~TB-HQ
~TB-MT
LOLE = 0.105
Rest of NECT
~Existing
9,111 MW
FLA-2,325 MW
FLA2,325 MW
Note: PUAz is the Proxy Units AdjustmentFLAz is Firm Load Adjustment
9
RC Meeting – May 14, 2009LSR and MCL Calculation Methodology
© 2009 ISO New England Inc. DRAFT
Calculation ProcedureLSR for NEMA/BOSTON
~Existing
37,059 MW
~TB-NY
~TB-HQ
~TB-MT
LOLE = 0.001
~Existing
33,246 MW
~TB-NY
~TB-HQ
~TB-MT
LOLE = 0.001
Rest of NEBOS
~Existing
3,813 MW
System LOLE < 0.1 with existing resourcesmodeled, proxy units are NOT needed, andno Proxy UnitsAdjustment (PUAz)is required.
Model the transmission interface between NEMA/BOSTON and Rest of NE. System LOLE remains at 0.001. Because LOLE is less than 0.105, Firm Load Adjustment (FLAz)will be made.
After adding 1,620 MW load to NEMA/BOSTON and subtracting 1,620 MW from Rest of NE, system LOLE reaches 0.105. LSR for NEMA/BOSTON is then determined as LSRz = Resourcesz + Proxy Unitsz – (PUAz/ (1 – FORz)) – (FLAz/ (1 – FORz)) = 3,813 + 0 – 0 /(1 – 0.0970) – 1,620/(1 – 0.0970) = 2,019 MW
~Existing
33,246 MW
~TB-NY
~TB-HQ
~TB-MT
LOLE = 0.105
Rest of NEBOS
~Existing
3,813 MW
FLA-1,620 MW
FLA1,620 MW
Note: PUAz is the Proxy Units AdjustmentFLAz is Firm Load Adjustment
10
RC Meeting – May 14, 2009LSR and MCL Calculation Methodology
© 2009 ISO New England Inc. DRAFT
Calculation ProcedureMCL for Maine
~Existing
37,059 MW
~TB-NY
~TB-HQ
~TB-MT
LOLE = 0.001
~Existing
3,616 MW
~TB-NY
~TB-HQ
~TB-MT
LOLE = 0.001
Rest of NE
ME
~Existing
33,443 MW
System LOLE < 0.1 with existing resourcesmodeled, proxy units are NOT needed, andno Proxy UnitsAdjustment (PUAz)is required.
Model the transmission interface between Maine and Rest of NE. System LOLE remains at 0.001. Because LOLE is less than 0.105, Firm Load Adjustment (FLAz)will be made.
After adding 4,455 MW load to Rest of NE and Subtracting 4,455 MW from Maine, system LOLE reaches 0.105. LSR for Rest of NE isdetermined as LSRrestofNewEngland = Resourcesz + Proxy Unitsz – (PUAz/ (1-FORz)) – (FLAz/ (1 – FORz)) = 33,443 + 0 – 0 /(1 – 0.0591) – 4,455/(1 – 0.0591) = 28,708 MWMCL for Maine is then determined as MCL = ICR – LSRRestofNewEngland
= 31,965 – 28,708 = 3,257 MW
Note: PUAz is the Proxy Units AdjustmentFLAz is Firm Load Adjustment
~Existing
3,616 MW
~TB-NY
~TB-HQ
~TB-MT
LOLE = 0.105
Rest of NE
ME~Existing
33,443 MW
FLA-4455 MW
FLA4,455 MW
11
DRAFT
Issue with the Existing LSR and MCL Calculation Methodology
RC Meeting – May 14, 2009LSR and MCL Calculation Methodology
© 2009 ISO New England Inc. DRAFT
Issue with the Existing Calculation Methodology (This slide has been revised)• The current methodology used to calculate LSR and MCL
does not adjust for surplus capacity unless the surplus is associated with the use of a “proxy unit”
• This is equivalent to calculating LSR and MCL using possible “as is” system conditions
• Some are concerned that using possible “as is” system conditions may understates LSR and overstates MCL when the system has surplus capacity
• The following tables show the results of the 2012/13 LSR and MCL using “as is” and “at criterion” conditions to illustrate the point
13
RC Meeting – May 14, 2009LSR and MCL Calculation Methodology
© 2009 ISO New England Inc. DRAFT
2012/13 vs. 2011/12 LSR – Connecticut
Connecticut Zone
2011 FCA (FERC
Approved) 2012 FCA2012 (If Calculated At Criterion)
50/50 Peak Load 7,750 7,650 7,650 Resourcez [1] 8,189 9,111 9,111 Proxy Unitsz [2] 0 0 0 Proxy Units (or Surplus Capacity) Adjustmentz [3] 0 0 0 Firm Load Adjustmentz [4] 1,285 2,325 1,680 FORz [5] 0.0637 0.0592 0.0592 LSRz [6]=[1]+[2]-([3]/(1-[5]))-([4]/(1-[5])) 6,817 6,640 7,325Rest of New England Zone resource [7] 26,567 27,948 27,948 Proxy Units [8] 0 0 0 Proxy Units (or Surplus Capacity) Adjustmentz [9] 0 0 4,585 Firm Load Adjustment [10] = -[4] -1,285 -2,325 -1,680Total System Resource [11]=[1]+[2]-[3]-[4]+[7]+[8]-[9]-[10] 34,756 37,059 32,474
Note: resource number for Rest of New England Zone excludes Hydro-Québec Interconnection Capability Credits (HQICCs)
14
RC Meeting – May 14, 2009LSR and MCL Calculation Methodology
© 2009 ISO New England Inc. DRAFT
2012/13 vs. 2011/12 LSR – NEMA/BOSTON
Note: resource number for Rest of New England Zone excludes HQICCs
NEMA/BOSTON Zone
2011 FCA (FERC
Approved) 2012 FCA2012 (If Calculated At Criterion)
50/50 Peak Load 5,815 5,885 5,885 Resourcez [1] 3,753 3,813 3,813 Proxy Unitsz [2] 0 0 0 Proxy Units (or Surplus Capacity) Adjustmentz [3] 0 0 0 Firm Load Adjustmentz [4] 1,570 1,620 1,110 FORz [5] 0.0964 0.0970 0.0970 LSRz [6]=[1]+[2]-([3]/(1-[5]))-([4]/(1-[5])) 2,016 2,019 2,584Rest of New England Zone resource [7] 31,003 33,246 33,246 Proxy Units [8] 0 0 0 Proxy Units (or Surplus Capacity) Adjustmentz [9] 0 0 4,585 Firm Load Adjustment [10] = -[4] -1,570 -1,620 -1,110Total System Resource [11]=[1]+[2]-[3]-[4]+[7]+[8]-[9]-[10] 34,756 37,059 32,474
15
RC Meeting – May 14, 2009LSR and MCL Calculation Methodology
© 2009 ISO New England Inc. DRAFT
2012/13 vs. 2011/12 MCL – MaineLocal Sourcing Requirements - RestofNewEngland (for Maine MCL calculation)
Rest of New England Zone
2011 FCA (FERC
Approved) 2012 FCA2012 (If Calculated At Criterion)
50/50 Peak Load 27,200 26,855 26,855 Resourcez [1] 31,185 33,443 33,443 Proxy Unitsz [2] 0 0 0 Proxy Units (or Surplus Capacity) Adjustmentz [3] 0 0 4,585 Firm Load Adjustmentz [4] 1,935 4,455 -200 FORz [5] 0.0568 0.0591 0.0591 LSRz [6]=[1]+[2]-([3]/(1-[5]))-([4]/(1-[5])) 29,133 28,708 28,783Maine Zone resource [7] 3,571 3,616 3,616 Proxy Units [8] 0 0 0 Proxy Units (or Surplus Capacity) Adjustmentz [9] 0 0 0 Firm Load Adjustment [10] = -[4] -1,935 -4,455 200Total System Resource [11]=[1]+[2]-[3]-[4]+[7]+[8]-[9]-[10] 34,756 37,059 32,474
Maximum Capacity Limit - Maine
Commitment Period
2011 FCA (FERC
Approved) 2012 FCA2012 (If Calculated At Criterion)
50/50 Peak Load 2,205 2,165 2,165ICR for New England [1] 32,528 31,965 31,965LSRRestofNewEngland [2] 29,133 28,708 28,783Maximum Capacity LimitY [3]=[1]-[2] 3,395 3,257 3,182
Note: resource number for Rest of New England Zone and ICR value for New England exclude HQICCs
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RC Meeting – May 14, 2009LSR and MCL Calculation Methodology
© 2009 ISO New England Inc. DRAFT 17
Questions