Logistics 2050 A Scenario Study business strategist Peter Schwartz of Monitor¢â‚¬â„¢s Global Business Network

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  • Logistics 2050 A Scenario Study

  • DELIVERING TOMORROW

    Logistics 2050 A Scenario Study

  • PUBLISHER Deutsche Post AG, Headquarters represented by Dr. Christof E. Ehrhart, Executive Vice President Corporate Communications 53250 Bonn, Germany

    PROJECT DIRECTOR Dr. Jan Dietrich Müller, Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AG

    PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND EDITORIAL OFFICE Johannes Oppolzer, Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AG

    ART DIRECTION Kai Kullen

    SCENARIO PROCESS AND REALIZATION Z_punkt The Foresight Company, Cologne

    COVER IMAGE Adrian Frutiger

    EDITORIAL SUPPORT Keir Bonine, Communication Resources bvba

    TRANSLATION Anke Bryson

    PRINT COORDINATION Manfred T. Rehberg, Williams Lea GmbH

    1. Edition February 2012

    © Deutsche Post AG, Bonn, Germany ISBN 978-3-920269-54-2

  • “To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect.” Oscar Wilde, 1854 – 1900

    Irish poet, novelist, and playwright

  • Contents

    Impressions 8 Introduction 10 Executive Summary 12

    1 Inception 22 On Looking into the Futures 22 by Professor James Allen Dator Winning in an Uncertain Future Through Scenario Planning 27

    by Peter Schwartz

    2 Imagination 34 The Project 34 The Futures 36

    Scenario 1: Untamed Economy – Impending Collapse 36 Scenario 2: Mega-efficiency in Megacities 50 Scenario 3: Customized Lifestyles 66 Scenario 4: Paralyzing Protectionism 80 Scenario 5: Global Resilience – Local Adaptation 92

    The Methodology: Taking a Closer Look 104 The Experts 112

  • 7

    3 Issues 114 The Future of Secure Communications in

    the Age of the Internet 114 by Jürgen Gerdes Beyond Double-Digit Growth: Perspectives for Sustained Prosperity in Asia 120 by Jerry Hsu Why I Believe in a Bright Future for Africa 127 by Amadou Diallo Vulnerability and Security in the 21st Century 132 by Professor Herfried Münkler The Future Belongs to Renewable Energies 138 Interview with Professor Klaus Töpfer

    4 Implications 144 Mapping a Decarbonization Path for Logistics 144 by Professor Alan McKinnon Towards a More Robust Global Trade Environment 150 by Roger Crook Catering to Our Customers’ Future Needs 155 by Rob Siegers The Logistics of the Future: Revolutionary Changes or the Development of Trusted Solutions? 160 by Petra Kiwitt and Steffen Frankenberg

    5 Intelligence 166 Recrafting Scenario Practice to Achieve Robust Long-Term Decisions 166 by Robert Lempert and Johanna Zmud Corporate Strategy in the Face of Volatility 173 by Jan Thido Karlshaus and Markus Reckling

    Acknowledgements 180

    Contents

  • 8 Delivering Tomorrow

    Interconnected

    Impressions Five Visions of the Future

    1

    3

    2

    “When the world is driven by materialism

    and faces frequent natural disasters”

    “When megacities become epicenters of

    green growth”

    “When individualization becomes pervasive and 3D printing dominates

    manufacturing and households”

    Materialism

    Urban-rural divide

    Technology

    Urban

    Megacities SupergridUrban congestion

    Pollution

    Climate change

    Arctic mining

    Natural disasters

    Resource exploitation

    Asia

    Free trade

    Rising incomes

    Consumption

    Unsustainable growth

    DematerializationFabShops

    Home fabbing

    3D printing Global hubs City logistics

    Rent-and-use

    Automation

    Robotics

    Efficiency

    Regional trade

    Internet security

    Digital piracy

    Decentralized

    Consumption

    Unique lifestyles

    Progress

    Affluence

    Prosumer

    Creativity

    Customized

    Individualization

    Wealth

    Green growth

    Virtual reality

  • 9Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study

    4

    5 “When frequent catastrophes lead

    to a paradigm shift away from efficiency

    maximization to vulnerability mitigation

    and resilience.”

    “When globalization is reversed and

    protectionist barriers are raised”

    Sustainability

    Interconnected Climate change

    Automation

    Nationalized logistics

    Energy security

    Customs delays

    Reuse and repair

    Security

    Stagnation International conflict

    Resource scarcity

    Productivity decline

    Ageing societies

    Fragmentation

    Regional blocs

    Nationalism

    Protectionist

    Contraction

    International collaboration

    Regional trade

    Supply security

    Flexible technology

    Decentralized solutions

    Backup infrastructure

    Redundant systems

    Resilience

    Supply disruption

    Disaster response

    Disasters

    Vulnerability

    Emergency logistics

    Automation

    Efficiency

    Wealth

    Green growth

    Collaboration

    Virtual reality

  • 10 Delivering Tomorrow

    Dear Reader,

    How does one shed light into the black box we call the future? Today’s complex economic and political landscape renders ac- curate forecasts virtually impossible. In our volatile and connected world, traditional, linear forms of analysis have repeatedly proven wrong. They, alone, simply aren’t enough to help us anticipate and prepare for change.

    In the search for robust strategies, we need to widen our perspec- tive, think in alternatives and consider different paths leading into different futures. With this in mind, Deutsche Post DHL, the world’s leading mail and logistics Group, has prepared another issue of our pioneering “Delivering Tomorrow” series: namely, a scenario study on “Logistics 2050.” This latest publication presents five far-ranging, at times even radical visions of life in the year 2050 and their implications for the logistics industry.

    It is important to keep in mind, however, that none of these sce- narios reflects our definite view of how the future will, in fact, de- velop. But knowing our limits should not prevent us from stretch- ing our imagination and considering what might transpire.

    The scenarios were derived by observing the key influencing forces around us, such as trade and consumption patterns, technological developments or climate change and considering how they drive behaviors and shape values. This exercise helps us plausibly sketch out different shapes that our future could take. By covering a comprehensive spectrum in the “space of future possibilities,” such

    Introduction

  • 11Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study

    alternative visions help us to sense a shifting environment much better than any extrapolation of isolated trends could do.

    However, assessing the future is a complex and multi-faceted undertaking. That’s why we have invited renowned academics and distinguished experts from a variety of fields and disciplines to provide valuable insights for the scenarios. We have asked them to share their views and analysis of the trends most likely to influence the world and our industry in the years to come, including any rel- evant economic, societal, political, technological or environmental ramifications. This valuable input formed a sound basis for the creation of our five future scenarios.

    Aside from the scenarios, we have also included a variety of thought-provoking essays from distinguished contributors. These external and internal perspectives cover a broad spectrum of themes connected with the future. We hope they will enrich the panorama of future topics contained in this issue and provide ad- ditional food for thought.

    Numerous people – both externally and within Deutsche Post DHL – have contributed their time, expertise and energy and have added great value to this project. I would like to thank everyone involved for these important contributions which made this publi- cation possible. There is no question in my mind that it was worth all the effort: As the pace of change seems to have increased in the past decades, it is more important than ever to stay prepared for the unforeseeable – not only in our industry, but in any business.

    With this in mind, I invite you to join us on this journey into the future. Pack your virtual suitcase and explore life in five vastly different worlds. Some scenarios may surprise or even astonish you at first. Nonetheless, I trust you will return with a broadended perspective.

    Finally, let us know if our study made an impact on you or your organization. Feedback is welcome and encouraged.

    Yours sincerely,

    Frank Appel CEO Deutsche Post DHL

    Introduction

  • 12 Delivering Tomorrow

    Inception

    On Looking into the Future and Scenario Planning

    This study starts with two essays laying the groundwork for the very idea of futures studies and future scenario forecasting. The first, by renowned futurist from the University of Hawaii, Professor James Allen Dator, introduces the discipline. In the second, respected futurist and business strategist Peter Schwartz describes the scenario planning context, process and application for business and policymakers.

    Professor Dator, Director of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies at U