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The seaborne coal market in 2016-2020Noble’s view of Energy Coal
May 2016
MAY 20162
• The international coal market is starting to show signs of rebalancing
• The domestic Chinese market will also rebalance as a result of government actions to cut excess capacity
• Indonesia and the USA will continue to cut exports, leading to a potential increasing tightening over 2016-2020
• Indian imports will become weaker in the short term, but ramping up domestic production will become increasingly difficult in the long term, leading to a second wave of imports growth
• The Southeast Asian market will deliver solid growth over the next couple of decades, as a result of multiple factors aligning to support coal demand
• The market will enter a new cycle in 2016-2017, as supply tightens and mining costs provide price upside
Lower for longer?How much lower, and how long?...
General considerations on coal demand
May 2016
Paris: What does COP21 mean for coal?
• The ultimate target of the Agreement (limiting global warming to not more than 2C) is an aspirational equivalent to the IEA 450 scenario
• However, the qualitative commitments included the Agreement resemble an ambitious version of the New Policies Scenario, and implementation details are yet to be agreed (post-ratification) which makes it difficult to assess the actual achievability of the targets
• Most countries have not yet committed beyond New Policies, and it is acknowledged that peaking will take longer for developing countries
• In reality, developed (OECD) countries might converge faster towards a low-carbon scenario, but developing countries will not reach “450 mode” until after 2030
• COP21 is not likely to produce short-term effects in the seaborne coal Market, as most of the new demand will come from developing countries in the Asia Pacific Region
4 MAY 2016
5
IEA’s coal demand outlook
IEA’s total global coal demand scenarios
IEA Scenarios Definitions
» The Current Policies Scenario only takes account of the mitigation policies that were enacted as of mid-2015.(Global coal demand increases by 2.4Bt by 2040)
» The New Policies Scenario takes into account the policies and implementing measures affecting energy markets that had been adopted as of mid-2015 (as well as the energy-related components of climate pledges in the run-up to COP21, submitted by 1 October), together with relevant declared policy intentions, even though specific measures needed to put them into effect may not have been adopted(Global coal demand increases by 700Mt by 2040)
» The 450 Scenario illustrates what it would take to achieve an energy trajectory consistent with limiting the long-term increase in average global temperature to 2 °C, primarily by by fostering technologies that are close to becoming available at commercial scale .(Global coal demand decreases by 2.0Bt by 2040)
Source: IEA WEO’15
MAY 2016
Global power generation fuel mixCoal’s share set to decline; absolute volume starts to decline post-2020 in the 450 Scenario
6Source: Noble Research; IEA WEO 2015
41% 37% 35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2020 2025
Power generation fuel mix shares
9.6 10.2 10.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2013 2020 2025
PW
h
Other
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Absolute power generation fuel mix
41% 35% 31%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2020 2025
9.6 9.2 7.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2013 2020 2025
PW
h
Other
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Ne
w P
oli
cie
s S
ce
na
rio
45
0 S
ce
na
rio
MAY 2016
7
Coal price in a bear cycle, but demand still high
Maintaining coal prices low prices is harder now that the market is four times the size in the 1990’s!
MAY 2016
Global Coal demand in 2015-2030Focus on the Asian market
May 2016
Country View: ChinaDrivers of long-term coal demand
9
• China faces many challenges in terms of phasing coal out of the mix.
• The view for imports, however, depends to a great extent on domestic production in the long term. Cuts, and rationalization can result in support for imports in the long term.
Source: Noble research
Bearish coal imports Bullish coal
Impact on Coal -2 -1 0 1 2
Demand drivers Weight 2020 2025 2030 Comment
Energy/power Demand 20% 2 1 1 Slowing GDP growth
Electricity market structure 10% 0 0 0 Limited scope for deregulation
Coal-fired PP pipeline 15% 1 0 0 Still strong, but declining
Competing fuels (Gas , Nuclear, Hydro) 15% 0 -1 -1 Nuclear to play an important role
Domestic coal supply 20% -2 1 2 Supply cuts in 2016-2020
Renewables 10% -1 -2 -2 Aggressive development
CO2 Price/Tax 10% 0 -1 -1 Uncertain, still experimental
Country Coal Index 0.3 -0.3 0.8
MAY 2016
MAY 201610
China: What to expect from in 2016-2017Declining, but rate is slowing down
Source: Reuters
• The Chinese coal market
has been weak since
2012, but some signs of
stabilization have started
to emerge
• Chinese domestic prices
have rallied, as the
government makes
efforts to cut over-supply
• Old mines have been
shut in several provinces,
and the government is
managing the transition
to control impact on
employment
Country View: ChinaTrying to phase coal out, but inertia is still strong
11
• Our view of electricity
generation growth in China
conservatively assumes the
middle-point between IEA’s
New Policies and the 450
Scenarios
• The resulting energy mix
shows coal use peaking in
2020 – but requires massive
developments in Nuclear,
Hydro and other sources
• We assume the Chinese
Government will have the
political will to deflect the
growth of coal, but will have to
pay a price for it
• The question then becomes
the level where domestic coal
supply can be sustained at...
Source: Noble research
MAY 2016
Country View: ChinaThe detail behind out estimates
12
• Coal demand in China is about
to peak, or perhaps it has
already done so
• In order to displace coal in the
mix, China will have to
undergo aggressive
expansions in almost every
source of power – especially
nuclear and renewables
• On the other hand, production
cuts in the coal industry are a
high priority in the 13th five-
year plan (2016-2020) and will
support domestic prices
• Demand for coal imports is
starting to stabilize, and will
find support as the Chinese
domestic market rebalances
Electricity Generation [TWh] 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total Generation 4,247 5,565 6,967 7,782 8,589
Coal 3,297 3,944 4,200 4,102 3,920
Oil 13 10 6 6 5
Gas 83 200 303 502 693
Nuclear 74 170 400 731 1,040
Hydro 722 988 1,193 1,322 1,449
Other 58 253 739 1,120 1,482
% Coal in the mix 78% 71% 60% 53% 46%
Coal demand - electricity [mt] 1,580 1,851 1,883 1,805 1,742
PP Efficiency [%] 35% 37% 39% 40% 40%
Average coal quality [kcal/kg NAR] 5300 5120 5150 5050 5000
Million Tonnes coal/TWh 0.48 0.47 0.45 0.44 0.44
Industrial Coal Demand 1250 1323 1196 1105 1038
Total coal demand 2,830 3,174 3,079 2,910 2,780
Domestic Production [Mt] 2,700 3,040 2,950 2,750 2,600
Imports [Mt] 130 134 129 160 180
Sources: IHS, IEA WEO 2015, Noble
MAY 2016
Country View: IndiaDrivers of long-term coal demand
13
Coal will continue to be the main choice in India, with strong fundamentals to 2025. The tide might only start to change by 2030.
Source: Noble research
Bearish coal imports Bullish
Impact on Coal -2 -1 0 1 2
Demand drivers Weight 2020 2025 2030 Comment
Energy/power Demand 20% 2 1 1 To remain strong over next decade
Electricity market structure 10% 0 1 1 Tough for IPPs, with some upside
Coal-fired PP pipeline 15% 1 1 0 Strong in underdeveloped areas
Competing fuels (Gas , Nuclear, Hydro) 15% 0 -1 -1 Limited scope
Domestic coal supply 20% -2 0 0 Taking the low-hanging fruit
Renewables 10% -1 -1 -2 Solar, at a price
CO2 Price/Tax 10% 0 0 0 Not likely
Country Coal Index 0.3 1.0 -0.3
MAY 2016
MAY 201614
India: Coal Demand in 2010 - 2030Strong, even under the most moderate scenarios
• The main driver for
increasing Indian
demand will continue to
be the electricity sector
• However, Industrial
demand, mainly cement
and sponge iron will
remain strong markets
for coal – especially
imported grades
• The stock-and-sale
sector will also remain a
strong niche for imports
Source: Noble research
MAY 201615
India: Domestic production in 2015-2030How long can the domestic coal boom last? – many factors at play
Noble agrees with other
forecasts that coal production
in India will continue to
increase in the short term
However, we see a series of
factors limiting the upside in
domestic production:
• Physical limits to the
expansion of Coal India,
which we see reaching
700 million tonnes in 2020
• Limited success in the
development of private
mining (coal blocks)
• Growth pains in
infrastructure
• Declining domestic coal
quality
Source: Noble research
Country View: IndiaThe detail behind out estimates
16
• In spite of a potential decline
in participation in the energy
mix, coal demand in India will
continue to grow in absolute
terms in 2015-2030
• We estimate demand growth
of approximately 200 million
tonnes in 2015-2020
• Imports will decline in the
short term as a result of
increasing domestic supply
• However, imports will return to
growth post 2020, as domestic
production in India struggles
with bottlenecks at mines and
supply chains
Electricity Generation [TWh] 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total Generation 960 1,245 1,766 2,251 2,848
Coal 653 980 1,224 1,412 1,698
Oil 26 3 26 29 32
Gas 118 51 96 185 262
Nuclear 26 44 66 109 165
Hydro 114 128 174 215 253
Other 22 38 180 301 439
% Coal in the mix 68% 79% 69% 63% 60%
Coal demand - electricity [mt] 463 666 840 892 1,103
PP Efficiency [%] 33% 34% 35% 38% 38%
Average coal quality [kcal/kg NAR] 3,800 3,800 3,700 3,700 3,600
Million Tonnes coal/TWh 0.71 0.68 0.69 0.63 0.65
Industrial Coal Demand 112 130 157 216 240
Cement 20 26 38 52 50
Sponge Iron 22 24 27 37 40
Other 70 80 92 127 150
Total coal demand @ Average kCal/kg NAR 575 796 997 1,108 1,343
Domestic Supply 471 583 825 905 1,045
Coal India (CIL) 402 499 700 750 850
Singareni (SCCL) 39 53 75 75 75
Captive + Other 30 31 50 80 120
Imported coal quality kCal/kg NAR 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800
Imports @ 5000 kCal/kg NAR 82 169 132 157 224
Sources: IHS, IEA WEO 2015, Goldman Sachs, Noble
MAY 2016
Country View: JapanDrivers of long-term coal demand
17
Similar to all mature coal markets, Japan will take some steps towards lower emissions, but the rate of change will be much slower than Europe or the USA
Source: Noble research
Against coal In favour of coal
Impact on Coal -2 -1 0 1 2
Demand drivers Weight 2020 2025 2030 Comment
Energy/power Demand 20% 0 0 0 Flat: 0% CAGR
Electricity market structure 10% 0 -1 -1 Increasingly liberalised
Coal-fired PP pipeline 15% 1 1 0 Limited, small capacity
Competing fuels (Gas , Nuclear, Hydro) 15% -1 0 1 Some competition from LNG
Domestic coal supply 20% 0 0 0 None
Renewables 10% 0 -1 -1 Slowly increasing capacity
CO2 Price/Tax 10% 0 0 -1 After market is liberalised
Country Coal Index 0.0 -0.3 -0.8
MAY 2016
Country View: JapanCoal to remain baseload, even if nuclear restarts go ahead
18
• Increasing numbers of coal-
fired power plants are being
built. During 2015, more than
40 plants were reported to be
planned for construction.
• However, some of these new
builds will be replacement
capacity
• The biggest uncertainty is the
view on nuclear restarts.
• But nuclear would replace gas
in the stack, not coal
• Our view also includes a
ramp-up in renewables
(especially solar) and other
low-carbon electricity sourcesSource: Noble research
MAY 2016
Country View: JapanThe detail behind out estimates and resulting coal demand
19
• The Japanese coal fired
fleet will remain the most
efficient in the world, and
the country will retain its
position as a leader in coal
technologies
• Oil burn for power
generation needs to be
phased out of the mix, and
will be replaced by coal
• Pipeline of solar projects
relatively strong, and
getting attention from the
government in coming
years
Electricity Generation [TWh] 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total Generation 1,074 1,010 1,043 1,062 1,084
Coal 299 325 328 300 295
Oil 91 87 45 29 20
Gas 301 390 305 290 295
Nuclear 288 3 175 218 218
Hydro 91 91 88 91 95
Other 4 106 123 144 167
% Coal in the mix 28% 32% 31% 28% 27%
Coal demand - electricity [mt] 117 127 128 116 114
PP Efficiency [%] 40% 40% 40% 41% 41%
Average coal quality [kcal/kg NAR] 5700 5700 5680 5600 5600
Million Tonnes coal/TWh 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39
Industrial Coal Demand 8 6 6 6 6
Total coal demand 125 133 134 122 120
Sources: IHS, IEA WEO 2015, Noble
MAY 2016
Country View: KoreaDrivers of long-term coal demand
20
• Similar to Japan, Korea will retain coal as a strong part of its baseload
• LNG will compete to some extent, with C2G substitution occurring as the arbitrage opens and closes
Source: Noble research
Bearish coal Bullish coal
Impact on Coal -2 -1 0 1 2
Demand drivers Weight 2020 2025 2030 Comment
Energy/power Demand 20% 1 1 1 Medium-strong: 1-2% CAGR
Electricity market structure 10% 0 0 0 Increasingly liberalised
Coal-fired PP pipeline 15% 2 1 0 Strong - under construction
Competing fuels (Gas , Nuclear, Hydro) 15% -1 -1 -1 Some competition from LNG
Domestic coal supply 20% 0 0 0 None
Renewables 10% 0 -1 -1 Slowly increasing capacity
CO2 Price/Tax 10% -1 -1 -1 Tax on coal in place
Country Coal Index 1.3 0.0 -0.8
MAY 2016
Country View: KoreaA strong pipeline of coal-fired projected to support demand
21
• The Korean baseload will
continue to rely on its
traditional mix of coal,
nuclear and gas in the
outlook period
• Between 2015-2020, coal-
fired generation will remain
supported by a strong
pipeline of projects
• Nuclear generation will
remain flat, as renewables
and gas take an increasing
share in the mix
Source: Noble research
MAY 2016
Country View: KoreaThe detail behind out estimates
22
Source: Noble Research
• Coal demand capacity to
increase by 64 million tonnes, but
utilization is expected to slightly
decline
• Fuel competition, and electricity
demand growth might limit coal
demand to 120-130 million
tonnes per annum
• Approximately half of this growth
to come from the government-
owned Gencos
• Industrial co-generation growth to
support coal demand also
Coal Demand by Sector 2015 2020 2025
Utilities - Government Owned
KOSEP 29 31 31
EWP 17 17 23
KOSPO 13 21 21
KOWEPO 14 21 21
KOMIPO 13 23 23
Total Gencos 86 113 119
IPPs
Dangjin Eco Power 4
Bukpyong 4 4
Gangneung Anin 6 7
Goseong Hai 2 7
Samcheok 7
Total IPPs 0 11 28
Industrial users
Cement 5 5 5
Chemical 3 3 3
Cogeneration 4 7 7
Others Industries 1 1 1
Total Industrial 12 15 15
Total Coal Demand 98 139 162
MAY 2016
Country View: KoreaThe detail behind out estimates
23
Electricity Generation [TWh] 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total Generation 500 532 585 621 659
Coal 219 249 290 300 310
Oil 19 14 6 4 4
Gas 103 94 100 105 120
Nuclear 149 163 170 179 179
Hydro 6 6 8 8 8
Other 3 6 11 25 38
% Coal in the mix 44% 47% 50% 48% 47%
Coal demand - electricity [mt] 85 95 112 116 120
PP Efficiency [%] 40% 41% 41% 41% 41%
Average coal quality [kcal/kg NAR] 5700 5700 5600 5600 5600
Million Tonnes coal/TWh 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.39
Industrial Coal Demand 10 8 8 6 6
Total 95 103 120 122 126
Sources: IHS, Noble
MAY 2016
Regional View: Southeast AsiaDrivers of long-term coal demand
24
Southeast Asia will remain a stronghold for coal demand given its thriving energy demand, and the availability of inexpensive Indonesian coal
Source: Noble research
Against coal In favour of coal
Impact on Coal -2 -1 0 1 2
Demand drivers Weight 2020 2025 2030 Comment
Energy/power Demand 20% 2 2 2 Flat: 0% CAGR
Electricity market structure 10% 0 1 1 Increasingly IPP participation
Coal-fired PP pipeline 15% 2 2 1 Strong in almost every country
Competing fuels (Gas , Nuclear, Hydro) 15% 0 0 1 Some competition from LNG
Domestic coal supply 20% 0 1 1 Less coal available for exports
Renewables 10% 0 0 -1 Slowly increasing capacity
CO2 Price/Tax 10% 0 0 0 Not likely in the outlook period
Country Coal Index 1.4 2.0 1.8
MAY 2016
Regional View: Southeast AsiaThriving energy demand
25
• Electricity demand in
Southeast Asia to double by
2030
• Coal and gas will continue to
be the main fuels for
electricity generation as
Hydro and Nuclear are
limited options in this region
• The pipeline of projects in
Indonesia, Vietnam,
Philippines and Malaysia is
well under way, with a high
percentage of projects
already under construction,
or in advance stages of
developmentSource: Noble research
MAY 2016
• Coal demand in Southeast
Asia will grow by 242
million tonnes between
2015 and 2030
• Approximately half of this
growth will take place in
the Indonesian domestic
market
• Growing demand domestic
demand in Indonesia will
increasingly limit
availability for the export
market
• Vietnam and Philippines
will also become very
important markets in the
next 5 years
Regional View: Southeast AsiaThe detail behind out estimates and resulting coal demand
26
Electricity Generation [TWh] 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total Generation 640 834 1,063 1,295 1,560
Coal 200 300 439 564 719
Oil 66 63 47 42 37
Gas 282 340 394 434 473
Nuclear - - - 14 23
Hydro 67 91 122 151 184
Other 25 40 61 90 124
% Coal in the mix 31% 36% 41% 44% 46%
Coal demand - electricity [mt] 93 140 210 275 350
PP Efficiency [%] 38% 38% 38% 38% 38%
Average coal quality [kcal/kg NAR] 5,000 5,000 4,900 4,800 4,800
Million Tonnes coal/TWh 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.49
Industrial Coal Demand 47 64 72 85 95
Total coal demand @ Average CV 140 204 281 359 446
Sources: IHS, IEA WEO 2015, Noble
MAY 2016
Coal Supply and Demand BalanceWhere is the market going?
MAY 2016
MAY 201628
Coal View: The Pacific Market in 2015-2020
The Pacific market will grow by +46 million tonnes in 2015-2020
Source: Noble research
Coal Demand 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2015-20
Pacific 736 674 671 684 696 712 720 46
China 199 130 118 120 120 125 129 -1
Japan 130 133 134 136 136 136 134 1
Taiwan 60 60 61 62 62 65 66 6
Korea 102 103 105 108 112 115 118 15
Hong Kong 14 12 12 11 10 9 8 -4.2
India 163 165 159 153 147 141 132 -33
Pakistan 3.7 4.5 3.6 3.8 5.0 6.0 6.0 1.5
Bangladesh 0.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.1
Sri Lanka 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.5 1.0
Malaysia 21 21 24 28 32 34 36 15
Thailand 18 18 19 20 23 26 26 8
Philippines 15 15 19 23 28 31 33 19
Vietnam 2 4 6 7 9 10 14 10
Cambodia 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 1
United Arab Emirates 2.2 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 3.5 1.8
Africa 3.2 4.1 4.9 5.9 6.5 7.1 7.8 3.7
MAY 201629
Coal View: Demand in 2015-2020Coal Demand 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2015-20
Pacific 736 674 656 657 679 700 722 48
China 199 130 102 91 100 110 129 -1
Japan 130 133 134 136 136 136 134 1
Taiwan 60 60 61 62 62 65 66 6
Korea 102 103 108 111 116 118 120 18
Hong Kong 14 12 12 11 10 9 8 -4.2
India 163 165 159 153 147 141 132 -33
Pakistan 3.7 4.5 3.6 3.8 5.0 6.0 6.0 1.5
Bangladesh 0.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.1
Sri Lanka 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.5 1.0
Malaysia 21 21 24 28 32 34 36 15
Thailand 18 18 19 20 23 26 26 8
Philippines 15 15 19 23 28 31 33 19
Vietnam 2 4 4 6 8 10 14 10
Cambodia 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 1
United Arab Emirates 2.2 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 3.5 1.8
Africa 3.2 4.1 4.9 5.9 6.5 7.1 7.8 3.7
Atlantic 205 202 191 181 181 182 181 -21
Europe 127 118 105 89 86 85 82 -36
Mediterrenean 43 46 46 49 52 52 54 8
Americas 35 38 40 43 43 45 46 8
Total 941 876 847 838 860 882 903 28
• Global coal demand contraction is
likely to continue until 2017, but
the rate of decline will start to
slows in late in 2016 – negative
outlook has been priced-in
• The stabilization of China, and
new demand from Korea and
Southeast Asia will support the
market post-2017
• India imports are likely to
disappoint in the short term due to
increasing domestic production,
but imports will remain very much
needed
• The fall of the European market
will continue though 2020, but the
Mediterranean and Latin
American markets will remain firm
Source: Noble research
MAY 201630
Coal View: Supply in 2015-2020What would happen to the coal market if prices remain at current levels?
• At current prices,
Indonesia and
Australia will not
ramp-up production
when the market
needs it (2018)
• Only the lowest cost
producers with
existing spare
capacity can expand
(Colombia and South
Africa)
• USA will all but
disappear from the
export market as a
result of its lack of
competitiveness
The seaborne market has started to tighten due to
the drop in coal supply from high-cost origins
Source: Noble research
Coal Supply 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2015-20
Indonesia 422 373 355 350 350 350 350 -23
Australia 198 200 195 200 200 200 200 0
Russia 97 98 95 95 98 100 100 2
Colombia 75 82 86 85 88 90 92 10
South Africa 71 75 72 74 75 78 78 3.0
US 32 24 18 14 12 12 12 -12
Other 46 24 25 22 22 22 22 -2.0
Total supply 941 876 846 840 845 852 854 -22
Total Demand 941 876 862 865 878 894 901
Balance 0 0 -16 -25 -33 -42 -47
Can support come from costs?
MAY 2016
32We see price support from costs in 2020Sub-50 $/t views carry significant upside risks due to oil and FX exposure
Current spot price = $50
We see long-term price
support from costs:
• Current price levels do
not support greenfield
developments – existing
capacity will be stretching
in 5 years
• The most important driver
costs are producer
currencies – RUB, IDR,
AUD, COP, ZAR - low
coal prices command
currencies to remain low
in the long term
• The second most
important driver of costs
are oil prices – upside in
oil will support coal
Source: CRU, Noble Analysis
FX Assumptions (2020 CRU): 1.34 AUD/$; 56 RUB/$; 12500 IDR/$; 2540 COP/$;
Volumes based on CRU projections for 2020
Spot price shown for prompt loading in 6000 kcal/kg at Newcastle port, FOB
Marginal cost (Oil @ 30, Current FX) = $60
Marginal cost (Oil @ 70, 2020 FX) = $70
2015 Demand = 880 million tonnes
2020 Demand (Noble outlook) = 847 million tonnes
Even assuming demand collapses to 800 million tonnes by 2020 (an
extreme case), current prices are not sustainable
MAY 2016
Coal Price OutlookNoble, Consensus Economics and IHS
MAY 201634
Source: GlobalCoal; Consensus Economics; IHS
Coal Price Outlook
Conclusions and takeaways
35
• The global seaborne market has started to show signs of
rebalancing
• Current coal price levels will lead to an increasing
shortage of coal supply in the next five years, and
potentially beyond
• Coal production costs are highly dependent on
currencies and oil prices – assuming current coal prices
are sustainable requires producer currencies and oil
prices to remain weak
MAY 2016
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