Coal market outlook

May 29, 2013 1

Different types Hard Coal (energy content above 4,500 kcal/kg and

water content lower than 35%)– Thermal Coal: used primarily for power generation and

for industrial applications; and – Coking Coal: used by the iron and steel industry to make

coke Only Hard coal is traded internationally

Lignite or Brown coal : Mainly used in regional/local markets and almost exclusively for power generation

May 29, 2013 2

So far…. Steam coal trade rose from 304 million tons in 1995 to

985 million tons in 2012, an average annual growth rate of 7.2%.

Coking coal trade rose from 172 million tons in 1995 to 291 million tons in 2012, an average annual growth rate of 3.1%.

Total international trade still represents a small share of coal production.

Only 17% of hard coal production is traded internationally, whereas this share is above 60% for oil and 33% for natural gas.

The global coal market remains a thin market dominated by few players. Small changes are able to shake and reshape the market. May 29, 2013 3

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Low Rank Coal Trade The growth of low rank steam coal is a new trend in global seaborne trade. Low rank coal also designed as “off-spec” consists of sub-bituminous coal

with a low calorific value (4,900 kcal/kg in the case of Indonesia, 5,500 kcal for Australia) and a high ash content (up to 24%).

Sold at a discount An estimated 200 million tons traded in 2011 Australia is now a regular supplier of low rank coal on the spot market. The suppliers save money as they don’t have to wash the coal. The buyers get lower prices. In the importing countries, low rank coal is

blended with other coals.

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Since 2000, most of coal power plants have been designed with the possibility to burn coals with a wide range of calorific value.

As more tonnage is needed to produce the same unit of energy, this new trend explains part of the high growth in steam coal imports by some countries (China, South Korea).

In Indonesia, low rank coal, accounts for about half of coal reserves in the country

A ban on exports of low calorific value coal was planned from 2014 so as to enrich the resource to high value product.

The government however decided in Jan 2013 not to proceed with the proposed ban as technology required for upgradation of the low rank coal is currently unavailable

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Low rank coal trade contd…

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Broadly 70:30 Ratio

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Four countries/regions dominate coal imports

China, India, the grouping Japan/South Korea/Taiwan which constitutes the traditional Asian buyers, and Europe

Together they account for 84% of total coal imports.

China became the world’s top importer in 2011, taking over the position that Japan has occupied for three decades.

India became the third largest importer in 2012, overtaking South Korea

May 29, 2013 12

Coking Coal – A Global Market

Concentration of exports in one country, Australia, which accounts for half of global coking coal trade.

Australia is therefore responsible for supplying customers all around the world with its high-quality coking coals

The other exporters include the United States, Canada, Mongolia and Russia

Coking coal exports amounted to 291 million tons in 2012 (254 million tons were seaborne trade)

Whereas steam coal trade accounts for 15% only of steam coal production, coking coal trade reaches 29% of coking coal production (2011).

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Coking Coal – A Global Market

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Major coal Importers

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Coal Exporters

• Six countries dominate coal exports: Indonesia, Australia, Russia, the United States, Colombia and South Africa

• They account for 84% of total trade. May 29, 2013 17

Top ten exporters

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China-Big Turnaround China, which was still a net exporter in 2008, became the world’s

first coal importer in 2011(Japan has occupied top slot for three decades).

China imported 289 million tons of coal in 2012 (+30% over 2011). China is now responsible for 23% of global coal imports. China is the world’s largest coal producer. Chinese imports, even at record levels, account for 7% only of the

Chinese market. A small change in Chinese consumption or production is able to

transform the status of the country from the number one importing country to a self-sufficient country.

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In 2011, China alone accounted for nearly half the world’s coal consumption

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China domestic coal industry

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China is essentially a “cost minimizer”

Chinese coal imports are driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.

The high cost of moving coal to the heavily industrialized coastal area has enabled the entry of import coals to compete with domestic coal products

“Swing buyer” in the coal market In early 2011, when Australian coal prices,China was a net exporter,

with Chinese traders reselling their coal cargoes In 2012, imports grew sharply (up 30%) driven by low international

prices

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West Australia -Qingdao Freight (USD/tonne)

West Australia -Qingdao Freight (USD/tonne)

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Consolidation Drive Push to move small individual mines

into the ownership of the SOE mining companies

Creation of 14 large coal production centers

These bases to be operated by 20 companies

Out of which 10 will have an output above 100 mtpa and others should have above 50 mtpa

Production growth to continue, despite the ongoing closures of smaller mines, albeit cost pressure to exist

May 29, 2013 39

China Infrastructure Expansion

According to the 12th FYP by 2015 Chinese coal transported via railways is projected to be 2.6 Bt, which corresponds to an average annual growth of 5.4%.

Railway capacity dedicated to coal is expected to grow to around 2.8 Gt to 3-3.3 Gt by 2015.

Construction of new power plants closer to the mine site Construction of ultra high voltage (UHV) grid systems The current plan is to invest RMB 500B in the roll out of this grid to

2015. The UHV grid will then extend to some 40,000 km and by 2020 the

target is to reach 300 GW of transmission capacity. This should also reduce operational transmission losses from 6.6%

to 5.7%.

May 29, 2013 40

12th Five Year Plan –Production Boost

The plan foresees a huge development of coal production in western regions (the Xinjiang region mainly), which account for 72% of the new capacity to be added during the five-year plan.

This corresponds to a capacity of an additional capacity of 530 million tons per year.

The government aims to build 17 super-large coal mines in the region, boosting annual coal output of Xinjiang to 400 million tons by 2015.

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Challenges… Xinjiang region is located nearly 3,000 km away from major

northeastern ports.

Xinjiang holds 40% of the country's coal resources (2.19 trillion tons), but produced only 120 million tons in 2011 (an estimated 140 million tons in 2012).

Water management will be a key issue for coal miners

The railway from the west to the east is still very limited

To tackle this issue, a railway line is under construction between the Xinjiang region and the Gansu Province which will be able to transport 50 million tons a year by 2015.

Coal by wire is also under consideration

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China coal import boom underway??

Domestic production and consumption to be capped at 3.9 billion tons by 2015. Most analysts forecast a growth in coal consumption to 4.3 billion tons by 2015,

requiring a large call on imports (almost 400 million tons depending on the actual level of production)

However, if the government manages to actually cap coal consumption at 3.9 billion tons, China could regain its self-sufficiency

Imports in that case would be limited to specific coal qualities, mainly coking coal and high caloric value thermal coal, which are not widely available on the Chinese market

12th Five-Year Plan foresees a diversification of the electricity mix away from coal. Share of non-fossil fuels in generating capacity- Expected to increase to 30% by 2015

(up from 20% currently). Efforts are focused on the development of hydropower (more than 50% of the

increase in non-fossil energy consumption by 2020)

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Diversification Is Already Underway

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Disconnect..

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Coal Prices have been Deregulated

Price liberalization has not yet led to a rise in domestic coal prices

Current overcapacity in the Chinese market

Impact is not yet seen on the competitiveness of imported coal relative to domestic coal

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Bearish Outlook

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Market Rumours

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China's NEA is framing a policy to curb import of low grade thermal and coking coal by imposition of import ban

Unconfirmed reports say that thermal coal with low calorific value less than 4,500kcal/kg, ash content of more than 25% and a sulphur content of more than 1% will be banned.

Possible ban on coking coal import with more than 12% ash content, 1.75% sulphurand more than 12% total moisture

Timeline for the implementation is not clear NEA is also proposing to tighten coal import procedures by setting criteria for

Chinese coal importersa. Registered capital of more than RMB 5000 millionb. Traded volumes of 100 mn tonnes in the past three yearsc. Must have adequate stockyards

Market participants are skeptical about implementation of this policy. Indonesia would be the biggest looser with almost 100 mn tonnes at stake. The limit on sulphur would also effect US coal miners. The proposal will get support from Chinese coal miners, who are reeling under

severe cost pressures amid low cost imports

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India Although India is the third largest producer of coal

(577 million tons in 2012), Domestic production is insufficient to cover the

country’s fast-growing needs Large-scale blackout experienced in July 2012. In 2012, the country imported a record 134 million

tons (15% over 2011) Consequently India appears as the next area of

surging coal imports Ultimately, India could overtake China as the

world's largest importing country. As 40% of the population still lacks access to electricity Large power plants, most often located on the coast

and powered by coal, resulting in a high demand for imported coal.

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Indian Coal Dynamics

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India’s Coal Imports-200 mtsby 2017??

India is the world’s fourth largest producer ofsteel (77 million tons produced in 2012)

Reserves of coking coal are of poor quality (34million tons imports in 2011).May 29, 2013 54

India’s Power(less) Ambition India has an ambitious electrification program -Initiative for the

construction of 14 coal-based UMPPs each with a capacity of 4 GW.

India’s current power capacity is approx 224 GW, with 58% based on coal (130 GW)

The new 12th Five-Year Plan (FY2012/13-2016/17) has confirmed this program, with the aim of adding 64 GW of thermal capacity in the next five years, almost entirely powered by coal (63 GW).

Coal consumption could reach 980 mn tons v/s production estimate of approx. 795 mn tons by 2016-2017

Gap would be approx. 185 mn tons Government has introduced the so-called captive mines policy to

open State mines to private investment. Out of over 200 coal blocks, containing coal reserves of over 50

billion tons, only 30 mines have started production and contributed merely 36.3 million tons in FY 2011 against a target of 104 mn tons

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India’s Power(less) Ambitions contd..

Licenses are now auctioned to avoid discretionary allocation. A fierce battle has developed between the Ministry of Coal and the Ministry of the

Environment. However a large part of the increase is expected to come from the captive mines,

which contribution to domestic supply is very uncertain.

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India’s Overseas Shopping Spree

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• Coal India is ready with a war chest of USD 6.3 bn and 18 investment bankers to identify overseas coal assets to meet domestic needs

• There have received 32 proposals from Indonesia, Australia, Mozambique, South Africa,Chile and Colombia

• India’s second largest power generator Tata Power is scouting for cheap coal assets in US, Canada and Colombia

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JST

Japan, South Korea and Taiwan constitute the traditional Asian buyers’ group

The three countries, which do not produce coal, rely on imported coal to fuel coal-based power generation and to manufacture steel products.

Japan imported around 182 million tons in 2012 (approx 108 mt steam coal)

South Korean imports have increased rapidly from Indonesia (129 mn tons in 2011)

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Taiwan

Majority is steam coal (62 million tons) mostly used in Taipower’s coal-fired power plants

The country also imported 3.8 million tons of coking coal.

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Europe European coal imports rose by 14% in 2011 and 11% in

2012

Abundance of US coal at low price and the collapse ofCO2 prices, coal has regained its competitiveness in thepower sector.

U.S. steam coal exports to Europe (including Turkey)jumped 124% to 18 million tons in 2011 and 90% to 31million tons in 2012.

Coal gained a larger share of European electricitygeneration, at the expense of natural gas

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Golden Age of Coal in Europe ?

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Surge in Atlantic Trade….

In 2012, EU imported around. 210 mts

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German Coal Fired Power Stations Due to Open By 2020

Operator Location MWDate Due Status

Trianel Lunen 750 2013 In Trial

EnBW Karlsruhe 874 2013 In Construction

GDF Wilhelmshaven 800 2013 In Construction

Steag Duisberg 725 2013 In Construction

E.ON Datteln 1055 2013 In Construction

RWE Hamm 1600 2013 In Construction

Vattenfall Hamburg 1640 2014 In Construction

GKM Mannheim 911 2015 In Construction

MIBRAG Profen 660 2020 A/W Approval

RWE Niederaussem 1100 n/a A/W Approval

GETEC Buttel 800 n/a A/W Approval

Dow Stade 840 n/a A/W ApprovalMay 29, 2013 65

Europe Future

In the future, European coal consumption and imports will mainly be driven by national policies and are contrasted among countries.

While the United Kingdom and Spain absorbed most of the U.S. and Colombian tonnages made available on the market in 2012, the trend may be short-lived as new regulations unfavorable to coal burning are put in place in both countries.

In Germany, at the opposite, the phase-out of nuclear power, leads to resurgence in coal consumption. The building of new hard coal-fired power plants will increase imports.

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Indonesia Massive transformation

The country has significant reserves (Kalimantan and Sumatra) of bituminous and sub-bituminous coal, well-suited to the needs of Indian and Chinese power stations, Indonesia’s two main markets.

Enjoys a strategic geographical position, very favorable production costs and internal transport logistics (mainly by barge).

Coal production reached an estimated 409 million tons in 2012.

The country produces a large quantity of sub-bituminous coal, as well as “off-spec” coal with a calorific value under 4,100 kcal/kg, lignite and PCI.

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One of the lowest costs of production

Indonesia enjoyed one of the lowest costs of production in the world.

Easiest mines are depleting and the country has to turn to more difficult mines, located farther from the ports, and deeper.

The cost of production, including domestic transportation cost are now rising

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Indonesia trade pattern

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Indonesia is feeling the pressure too!!

Coal exports increased by 18 million tons only to 327 million tons in2012.

Small coal mines, often operated illegally, were shut down inresponse to lower prices.

The major producers, such as Bumi and Adaro, which operate someof the country’s least expensive mines, also saw their marginssqueezed.

All companies have announced costs reductions and cut in coaloutput and miners are reconsidering expansion plans.

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Challenges ahead• Indonesian domestic consumption is booming• The uncontrolled rise in coal exports has led the government to prioritize

the domestic use of coal over its exports and to introduce more regulation in the sector.

• A ban on exports of low calorific value coal was planned from 2014.• Government decided in January 2013 not to proceed with the proposed

ban and instead to control coal output by giving each producing region an annual mining quota

• The government has also mandated producers to set aside part of their production for domestic consumption (20-25%).

• A tax on the export of unprocessed coal is also under consideration, although no date has been fixed yet.

• The government plans to raise coal mining royalties • A new regulation, requires foreign investors in mining companies to divest

51% of their shares by the 10th year of production, but uncertainties remain over applicability and pricing.

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Australia Largest player until 2011,

overtaken by Indonesia in that year

Largest exporter of coking coal

Represents nearly 50% of the global coal exports

Most of the hard coal reserves are found in the states of Queensland and New South Wales (95% of Aus hard coal production)

Very sensitive to weather events…2011 rains disrupted Queensland coking coal productionMay 29, 2013 73

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Australia

Australian supply is not all cheap

Mining companies in Australia have to struggle with high production costs and a decrease in productivity.

Current production costs are among the highest in the world The industry has to move to lower quality deposits that are more costly to

exploit New developments are further away from major rail and port

infrastructure. Input costs such as labor, machinery, equipment’s hire and diesel fuel have

all increased dramatically. Margins are further squeezed by the rising cost of infrastructure access, the

appreciation of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar and escalation in capital costs.

Australia introduced a carbon tax in July 2012.The tax applies to the mining of coal, as opposed to the burning of coal for electricity generation.

The government also introduced a new tax on profit of coal and iron ore companies in July 2012 (the Minerals Resource Rent Tax).

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Australia- port capacity issues Australia’s coal exports have been plagued by a structural shortage of rail

and port capacity over the past six years.

Australia has started to lose its competitive edge and its share of the world thermal coal trade has declined since 2006.

Coal exports are serviced by nine major coal ports and export terminals located in the states of Queensland and New South Wales.

Recent expansions to capacity at Hay Point and Abbot Point ports added some 50 million tons a year.

Australia is increasing infrastructure capacity to add about 60 million tons a year to annual coal export capacity by 2015.

An additional capacity of 200 million tons a year is planned in the medium term.

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Sunset industry??? The reduced margins coupled with the recent fall in coal prices have

moderated Australia’s coal industry expansion.

Mining companies have announced reviews of their investmentplans.

BHP Billiton, Xstrata, Rio Tinto, Anglo and Peabody all cut output attheir highest cost mines or even close them.

Workforce reduction amounted to 3,500 jobs from April to September2012.

The future expansion of Australian coal exports is strongly linkedwith gains in productivity and a recovery in international coal prices.

Development in competing countries, Indonesia and the UnitedStates for steam coal, Mongolia, Mozambique, the United Statesand Canada for coking coal, will be a determining factor as well asthe evolution of demand in importing countries, China and IndiaparticularlyMay 29, 2013 77

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US The collapse of U.S. gas prices, to $4/million Btu in 2011 and even

$2.75/million Btu in 2012, linked with the “shale gas revolution”, has made coal uncompetitive in the electricity sector (92% of the total coal demand)

U.S. coal demand dropped 4% in 2011 and 11% in 2012. The reduction in domestic demand has forced U.S. miners to look for overseas outlets.

Their exports surged by 31% in 2011 and 16% in 2012. They reached 112 million tons in 2012, more than twice the level of 2009.

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Coal use is a taboo in US!!

Stricter environmental standards in terms of coal production and its consumption in power plants cloud the future of coal in the country.

The expected outcome of the new regulations on air pollution is the retirement of 27 GW of capacity between 2012 and 2016

Decrease in the coal demand has resulted in a decrease in the coal production in the country

In 2013/2014,coal is likely to atleast partially gain its lost market share visa vis gas (as gas prices have bounced back from low levels unsustainable for shale gas producers)May 29, 2013 81

US Export Outlet

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US Competitiveness No large coal ports on the U.S. West coast, steam coal (as well as

coking coal) has to be exported from the Gulf coast.

Large maritime freight disadvantage compared with Australian orIndonesian coal.

Steam coal prices therefore have to be sufficiently high to coverproduction, internal transportation, handling costs, and maritimefreight(this was the case in 2011). The fall in steam coal prices sinceFebruary 2012 makes this new business unprofitable.

Trade to Europe at current prices (US$90/t beginning of December2012) is not profitable for most mines.

Therefore although exports were at record levels in 2012, theyshould decrease in the short term

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US – Still a swing supplier?? They enter the international coal market when prices are high and

withdraw when prices come down

Exports have started to decrease compared with their peak level reached in June and July 2012 and the scale back is expected to continue in 2013.

The EIA expects that coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 90 million tons for the third straight year

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PRB coal exports to Asia??? There are several projects of new ports and railways under the planning

stage. Two large port projects have been proposed in Washington State,Longview Terminal and Gateway Pacific Terminal.

Along with three smaller projects in Oregon State, the proposals wouldadd between 115 and 138 million tons a year in total export capacity .

In addition, 10 proposed terminals, although each small in scale, wouldtogether add 86 to 138 million tons a year in port capacity along the GulfCoast.

Projects face strong local opposition and challenging permitting issues. Community and environmental groups are concerned about coal dust from

increased train traffic and the broader climate impacts from the coal beingburned overseas.

Pending construction of new ports on the West coast of the United States,the port capacity of the West coast of Canada is being used.

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US West Coast port infra plans

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Expansion of Panama Canal Many of Colombia's port expansion projects lie on the Caribbean near the eastward

opening of the Panama Canal. Slated for completion by 2015, the Panama Canal expansion should enhance

opportunities for coal exports to Asian markets. The freight cost will be largely reduced as it will then be possible for smaller

Capesize ships (the so-called "Post-Panamax" vessels) to use the canal instead ofhaving to sail around the Cape of Good Hope

Also, a 220 km railway line between the port of Cartagena (on the Atlantic coast)andthe Pacific Ocean is under consideration by the Chinese Development Bank

China and Colombia are also considering an 800 km railway from central Colombiato the Pacific and expansion of the port of Buenaventura on the Pacific coast.

The US$2.7 billion project would be funded by the Chinese Development Bank andwould facilitate coking coal exports to China.

In 2012, India’s Aditya Birla Group announced its plan to purchase a US$1 billionstake in Drummond's Colombian coal mines.

Greater exports of Colombian coal to Asia in the future could be expected

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Supplies to Increase!!

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So what to expect for the future??…

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Moderate Growth...!!

• Overall, expect fairly moderate volume growth (4-5% at best) in coal trade over the medium term

• Distance travelled is likely to improve going forward as Atlantic basin exporters overcome infrastructure hurdles to meet rising Asian demand

• Expect bouts of volatility in sync with price arbitrage opportunity

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Moderate Growth Contd...!!

• Supply disruptions- Both weather-related (e.g. Queensland floods) and man-made (e.g. industrial action at mines, rail and ports)

• Forex risk- USD appreciation against AUD,RMB etc can directly impact seaborne competitiveness

• Govt Policies- esp Chinese,India,Indonesia• Power deregulation in India• Enviromental Policies

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Key risks...!!

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Grain & Minor Bulk Trade!!

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Seaborne Grain trade

Grains

5 year CAGR of 4.21%

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Seaborne minor bulk trade

Seaborne minor bulk…

5 year CAGR of 2.48%

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Medium Term Supply OutlookCAPESIZE FLEET SUPPLY PROJECTIONS

Year 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 5 yr CAGR (%)Capesize - Current fleet 284

NB Orderbook contracted post 2010 15 10 29 20 20NB Orderbook contracted pre 2010 9 5 1

Slippage 20%Slippage dwt > 2010 3 2 6 4 4Slippage dwt < 2010 5 2 0

Net deliveries (full cancelation) 12 11 25 22 20Net deliveries (half cancelation) 16 13 26 22 20

Demolition age @25yrs 4 2 5 3 6Net Supply (100% contracted <2010) 279 292 300 321 340 354 4.86%

% growth 4% 3% 7% 6% 4%Net Supply (50% contracted <2010) 279 296 307 328 347 361 5.29%

% growth 6% 4% 7% 6% 4%PANAMAX FLEET SUPPLY PROJECTIONS

Year 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 5 yr CAGR (%)Panamax - Current fleet 183

NB Orderbook contracted post 2010 21 13 16 11 11NB Orderbook contracted pre 2010 6 2

Slippage 20%Slippage dwt > 2010 4 3 3 2 2Slippage dwt < 2010 3 1




% growth 12% 7% 6% 5% 4%

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Medium Term Supply OutlookHANDYMAX FLEET SUPPLY PROJECTIONS

Year 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 5 yr CAGR (%)Handymax - current fleet 142






% growth 3% 3% 7% 6% 5%DRYBULK FLEET SUPPLY PROJECTIONS

Current fleet 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 5 yr CAGR (%)DryBulk Total 695






% growth 3% 4% 7% 5% 4%

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Yardwise breakup of the orderbook..CAPE ORDER BOOK (TOP 10)Shipyard % of total

Japan Marine Utd 13.18%Shanghai Waigaoqiao 11.00%Namura Shipbuilding 9.69%

Imabari S.B. 7.97%Jiangsu Rongsheng 7.39%

STX Dalian 6.62%STX SB 1.72%

Sungdong S.B. 4.89%Beihai Shipyard 4.24%Koyo Dock K.K. 4.03%

Shanghai Jiangnan 2.82%Total Top 10 73.55%

PANAMAX ORDER BOOK (TOP 10)Shipyard % of total

Oshima S.B. Co. 9.38%Tsuneishi Zosen 7.42%

Japan Marine Utd 6.03%Imabari S.B. 5.53%

Jiangsu Rongsheng 4.84%Jinhai Heavy Ind. 3.83%Jiangsu New YZJ 3.01%Jiangsu Eastern 3.00%

STX S.B. 2.84%STX Dalian 0.36%

Tsuneishi Zhoushan 2.66%Total Top 10 48.91%

HANDYMAX ORDER BOOK (TOP 10)Shipyard % of total

Oshima S.B. Co. 9.88%CIC (Jiangsu) 8.68%

Mitsui SB 6.23%STX Dalian 5.43%

Tsuneishi Zhoushan 5.31%Hantong S.Y. 5.12%

Taizhou Sanfu 4.48%Tsuneishi Cebu 3.99%Bohai Shipbld. 3.84%

STX S.B. 3.62%Total Top 10 56.59%

HANDYSIZE ORDER BOOK (TOP 10)Shipyard % of total

Saiki Hvy. Ind. 7.11%Imabari S.B. 6.51%

Weihai Samjin 5.48%Zhejiang Yangfan 5.04%Chengxi Shipyd. 4.03%Hakodate Dock 3.80%Jinling Shipyard 3.69%

SPP Shipbuilding 3.57%Onomichi Dockyd 3.45%

Hyundai Mipo 3.39%Total Top 10 46.07%

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Overall conclusion

• Iron trade growth to likely outperform coal trade growth• Capesizes to outperform Panamax in the medium term• At current NB prices, 10 yr BE for a NB Cape dely (Japan) would we

approx. USD 16,300/day • Long term Capes to Panamax Spot Earnings ratio has been close to 1.6• Booking NB Capes at USD 16,300/day BE would be equivalent to

building a NB Panamax with a USD 10,200/day BE• Overall would suggest

– Build 2 NB Capes dely Q3/Q4 2015• Atleast book Cal 2015 FFA contract fro 2 Capes @ USD 14,000/day

– Build 2 NB Supramax dely Q3-Q4 2015– Build 2 NB Kamsarmax dely Q4 2015/ Q1 2016

• Unless S/H market for Panamaxes corrects 15% below current market levels

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Overall conclusion

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Technology

Coal market outlook