Looking Forward to the Looking Forward to the 2010 Census2010 Census

The changing The changing demographics of the nationdemographics of the nation

C Barbara Everitt Bryant 2009C Barbara Everitt Bryant 2009

Barbara Everitt BryantBarbara Everitt Bryant

Research Scientist-EmeritaResearch Scientist-Emerita

Ross School of BusinessRoss School of Business

University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan

Director, Bureau of the Director, Bureau of the Census 1989 - 1993Census 1989 - 1993

The reason we take a The reason we take a census:census:

It’s in the Constitution!It’s in the Constitution!

Article 1; Section 2Article 1; Section 2

““Representatives and direct Taxes Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the shall be apportioned among the

several States which may be several States which may be included in this Union, according to included in this Union, according to

their respective numbers…The their respective numbers…The actual Enumeration shall be made actual Enumeration shall be made

within three Years after the first within three Years after the first meeting of the Congress of the meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every United States, and within every

subsequent Term of ten years, in subsequent Term of ten years, in such Manner as they shall by Law such Manner as they shall by Law

direct.”direct.”

It was put in the It was put in the Constitution to:Constitution to:

Divide up taxes among the states Divide up taxes among the states (this was discontinued after War (this was discontinued after War of 1812)of 1812)

Reapportion House of Reapportion House of Representatives between the Representatives between the statesstates

Other Uses of Census Other Uses of Census DataData

Redistricting—drawing boundaries for Redistricting—drawing boundaries for Congressional, legislative, etc. districtsCongressional, legislative, etc. districts

Distribution of federal funds--$400b/yearDistribution of federal funds--$400b/year Program needs planning for Program needs planning for

federal/state/local government and federal/state/local government and government agenciesgovernment agencies

MarketingMarketing Site locationSite location Demographic change researchDemographic change research

U.S. has longest running, U.S. has longest running, periodic census in worldperiodic census in world

There were older censusesThere were older censuses 2nd Samuel, 242nd Samuel, 24----Lord, in wrath, tells Lord, in wrath, tells

David to go number Israel and JudahDavid to go number Israel and Judah 1st Chronicles, 211st Chronicles, 21----Satan incites Satan incites

David to do soDavid to do so Luke, 2Luke, 2----Why did Mary and Joseph Why did Mary and Joseph

go to Bethlehem?go to Bethlehem? China in 2 A.D.: Recorded 57,671,600China in 2 A.D.: Recorded 57,671,600

We have the longest running We have the longest running periodic census only because periodic census only because census taking is protected by census taking is protected by

being in the Constitutionbeing in the Constitution

Census data is always controversial. Census data is always controversial. Legislative bodies—and all Legislative bodies—and all constituencies-- fight for their maximum constituencies-- fight for their maximum count, and would not take a census if they count, and would not take a census if they thought it would reduce their power.thought it would reduce their power.

Census creates “winners” and “losers”:Census creates “winners” and “losers”: 1860 Slave vs Free States1860 Slave vs Free States 1870 Effect of 141870 Effect of 14thth Amendment –former slaves Amendment –former slaves

now full personsnow full persons 1911 Size of Congress fixed at 4351911 Size of Congress fixed at 435 1920 Rural vs Urban1920 Rural vs Urban 1962 Baker v Carr (one person/one vote)1962 Baker v Carr (one person/one vote) 1965 Voting Rights Act1965 Voting Rights Act 1968 Housing Act1968 Housing Act Federal aid becomes 15% of state and local Federal aid becomes 15% of state and local

fundsfunds 1980, 1987, 1990 Lawsuits against Census 1980, 1987, 1990 Lawsuits against Census

Bureau over undercount—controversy on Bureau over undercount—controversy on statistical adjustment of census countsstatistical adjustment of census counts

1790 to 20001790 to 2000Data Every 10 YearsData Every 10 Years

Since 1970: 2 questionnairesSince 1970: 2 questionnaires Short form to 100% of householdsShort form to 100% of households

– Count of populationCount of population– Information for reapportionment and Information for reapportionment and

redistrictingredistricting

Long form to 17% of householdsLong form to 17% of households– Social and economic characteristicsSocial and economic characteristics

Starting in 2005Starting in 2005The American Community The American Community

Survey replaced the long formSurvey replaced the long form

250,000 household interviews per month250,000 household interviews per month New data on characteristics of the New data on characteristics of the

population every yearpopulation every year 2010 Census will be short form only-- 2010 Census will be short form only--

for accurate count for reapportionment for accurate count for reapportionment and redistrictingand redistricting

In 219 years we have In 219 years we have grown from a nation of grown from a nation of

3.9 to 308 million3.9 to 308 million

Population Growth 1790 - 2009Population Growth 1790 - 2009

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

35017

90

1810

1830

1850

1870

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

Population TodayPopulation Today

The world: 6.8 billionThe world: 6.8 billion The U.S.: 308 millionThe U.S.: 308 million California: 38 millionCalifornia: 38 million Michigan: 10 millionMichigan: 10 million

The Center of U.S. The Center of U.S. Population:Population:A HistoryA History

1790: East of Baltimore1790: East of Baltimore 2000: South/central Missouri2000: South/central Missouri 2010: ?? Probably near the 2010: ?? Probably near the

Missouri-Arkansas border—Missouri-Arkansas border—moving South and Westmoving South and West

Growth is in the West and Growth is in the West and SouthSouth

100 Years of Population 100 Years of Population ShiftsShifts

27.626.1

19

34.629.4

22.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

Northeast Midwest

1900

1950

2000

32.2 31.235.6

5.7

13.3

22.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

South West

190019502000

Which means the Which means the Northeast and Midwest Northeast and Midwest

are losing political are losing political powerpower

Reapportionment after 1990 Reapportionment after 1990 & 2000 censuses& 2000 censuses

# of Seats# of Seats 19901990 20002000

NortheastNortheast -7-7 -5-5

MidwestMidwest -8 -8 -5-5

SouthSouth +7 +7 +5+5

WestWest +8 +8

+5+5

Michigan is expected to lose Michigan is expected to lose a Congressional seat after a Congressional seat after

the 2010 censusthe 2010 census

When First Counted in the When First Counted in the U.S. Census:U.S. Census:

1790 13 colonies plus some 1790 13 colonies plus some Western edges like KentuckyWestern edges like Kentucky

1810 Northwest Territory—Illinois, 1810 Northwest Territory—Illinois, Michigan, etc.Michigan, etc.

1870 Arizona Territory with 5,000 1870 Arizona Territory with 5,000 personspersons

The 10 largest citiesThe 10 largest citiesin 2000in 2000

1. New York1. New York 2. Los Angeles2. Los Angeles 3. Chicago3. Chicago 4. Houston4. Houston 5. Philadelphia*5. Philadelphia*

6. Phoenix6. Phoenix 7. San Diego7. San Diego 8. Dallas8. Dallas 9. San Antonio9. San Antonio 10. Detroit*10. Detroit*

* Lost population in decade* Lost population in decade

Nine Metropolitan Areas Nine Metropolitan Areas of 5 Million or More (2000)of 5 Million or More (2000) NY-NJ-LI-CT-PA (21.2)NY-NJ-LI-CT-PA (21.2) LA-Riverside-Orange LA-Riverside-Orange

CA (16.4)CA (16.4) Chicago-Gary-Chicago-Gary-

Kenosha IL-IN-WI(9.2)Kenosha IL-IN-WI(9.2) Washington-Baltimore Washington-Baltimore

DC-MD-VA-WV (7.6)DC-MD-VA-WV (7.6) San Francisco-San Francisco-

Oakland-San Jose CA Oakland-San Jose CA (7.0)(7.0)

Philadelphia-Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic Wilmington-Atlantic City PA-NJ-DE-MD City PA-NJ-DE-MD (6.2)(6.2)

Boston-Worcester-Boston-Worcester-Lawrence MA-NH-ME-Lawrence MA-NH-ME-CT (5.8)CT (5.8)

Detroit-AA-Flint MI Detroit-AA-Flint MI (5.5) (5.5)

Dallas-Ft Worth TX Dallas-Ft Worth TX (5.2)(5.2)

An increasingly diverse An increasingly diverse populationpopulation

Race/EthnicRace/Ethnic 19801980 19901990 20082008

Non-HispanicNon-Hispanic

WhiteWhite

Afr/AmerAfr/Amer

AsianAsian

Am IndianAm Indian

OtherOther

2 or more2 or more

79.879.8

11.511.5

1.61.6

0.60.6

0.10.1

NANA

75.675.6

11.711.7

2.82.8

0.70.7

0.10.1

NANA

65.465.4

12.112.1

4.44.4

0.70.7

0.30.3

1.71.7

HispanicHispanic 6.46.4 9.09.0 15.415.4

By 2042, white non-By 2042, white non-Hispanics will be a Hispanics will be a

minorityminority

They already are in They already are in California, Texas, New California, Texas, New

Mexico, and HawaiiMexico, and Hawaii

Racial Ethnic % in 3 Racial Ethnic % in 3 Western States (2008)Western States (2008)

TXTX CACA NMNM

African African AmericanAmerican

1212 66 33

American IndianAmerican Indian 11 11 1010

AsianAsian 33 1313 22

HispanicHispanic 3636 3636 4444

TOTALTOTAL 5252 5656 5959

Asians Live Mostly in Urban Areas

Ann Arbor is the most Ann Arbor is the most integrated city in Michigan integrated city in Michigan

(*William Frey, University of Michigan)(*William Frey, University of Michigan)

Race/EthnicRace/Ethnic MichiganMichigan Ann Ann ArborArbor

White/Non -White/Non -HispanicHispanic

Black/AfAmBlack/AfAm

AsianAsian

Am IndianAm Indian

OtherOther

2 or more2 or more

77.377.3

13.813.8

2.32.3

0.5 0.5

0.10.1

1.81.8

71.771.7

7.47.4

14.914.9

0.20.2

1.21.2

3.83.8

HispanicHispanic 3.13.1 1.91.9

Ours is a very mobile Ours is a very mobile societysociety

16% of us changed residences 16% of us changed residences last year—but downturn in last year—but downturn in

housing is making it harder to housing is making it harder to movemove

Residence last year (2008)Residence last year (2008)

Same houseSame house 84%84%

Different house: Same Different house: Same countycounty

9%9%

Different house: Same Different house: Same statestate

3%3%

Different stateDifferent state 2%2%

AbroadAbroad 1%1%

Our population is agingOur population is aging

Median Age of the Median Age of the PopulationPopulation

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Age

Immigrants keep the nation Immigrants keep the nation younger. Median age (2000):younger. Median age (2000):

38.5 Whites38.5 Whites 35.3 TOTAL POPULATION35.3 TOTAL POPULATION 32.3 Asians32.3 Asians 30.5 African Americans30.5 African Americans 28.5 American Indians28.5 American Indians 26.6 Hispanics26.6 Hispanics

In a university town, the In a university town, the population never grows population never grows

oldold

MEDIAN AGE (2008):MEDIAN AGE (2008): 36.9 United States36.9 United States 38.7 Massachusetts38.7 Massachusetts 30.8 Cambridge, MA30.8 Cambridge, MA 38.0 Michigan38.0 Michigan 27.1 Ann Arbor, MI27.1 Ann Arbor, MI 35.1 Arizona35.1 Arizona 29.9 Tempe29.9 Tempe

Foreign-Born Population Foreign-Born Population HistoryHistory

1860- 1920 13-15% 1860- 1920 13-15% 1930 11.6%1930 11.6% 1970 4.7%1970 4.7% 2000 11.1%2000 11.1% Early immigration mostly from Early immigration mostly from

Europe; 2000 half from Latin Europe; 2000 half from Latin America, one-fourth from Asia America, one-fourth from Asia

Language other than Language other than English spoken at homeEnglish spoken at home

1990 14%1990 14% 2008 20%2008 20%

Undocumented Undocumented immigrants now immigrants now

estimated at 11-12 millionestimated at 11-12 million

Source: Pew Hispanic CenterSource: Pew Hispanic CenterThe Census Bureau does not measure legal/illegalThe Census Bureau does not measure legal/illegal

Housing Tenure 2008Housing Tenure 2008

(Occupied Housing Units)(Occupied Housing Units) 67% owner-occupied67% owner-occupied 33% renter-occupied33% renter-occupied

Households have Households have changedchanged

Household StructureHousehold Structure

StructureStructure 1950 (%)1950 (%) 2008 (%)2008 (%)

Married Married couplecouple

7878 4949

Female Female head/head/

familyfamily

88 1313

Male Male head/head/

familyfamily

33 55

Non-Non-familyfamily

1111 34 (alone 34 (alone 28%)28%)

Families With ChildrenFamilies With Children

1970 (%)1970 (%) 2008 (%)2008 (%)

4545 3131

Bathrooms show how the Bathrooms show how the U.S. has changed since U.S. has changed since

19401940 Complete plumbing—pipedComplete plumbing—piped hot and cold water, flushhot and cold water, flush toilet, tub or showertoilet, tub or shower

1940 55% of housing1940 55% of housing 2000 99%2000 99%

Our education level Our education level keeps going upkeeps going up

Education (persons 25+)Education (persons 25+)

1990 1990 (%)(%)

2008 2008

(%)(%)

Less than HS gradLess than HS grad 2424 1515

HS gradHS grad 3030 2929

Some collegeSome college 1919 2121

AssociateAssociate 66 88

BachelorsBachelors 1313 1818

Graduate/pro-Graduate/pro-fessionalfessional

77 1010

College Graduates 2000College Graduates 2000

USUS MIMI AnnAnn

ArborArbor

BachelorsBachelors 1818 15 15 3030

Graduate/pro-Graduate/pro-fessionalfessional 1010 99 4040

And here are some And here are some changes since 1930…changes since 1930…

19301930 20002000

Life expectancyLife expectancy 59.759.7 77.177.1

Age 65 +Age 65 + 6.6 6.6 milmil

35.035.0

Women in labor forceWomen in labor force 24%24% 61%61%

% of HH people live % of HH people live alonealone

8%8% 26%26%

People/HHPeople/HH 4.14.1 2.62.6

Lead country of foreign Lead country of foreign bornborn

ItalyItaly MexicoMexico

How the 2010 census How the 2010 census will be takenwill be taken

Robert M. Groves, Director U.S. Census BureauFormerly Director, Survey Research Center

University of Michigan

Master Address File (MAF)Master Address File (MAF) Tiger Mapping SystemTiger Mapping System January-April: large scale ad campaignJanuary-April: large scale ad campaign Advance mailed alert: questionnaire is Advance mailed alert: questionnaire is

comingcoming Mid-March questionnaires mailed to Mid-March questionnaires mailed to

mailable addresses on MAF, hand mailable addresses on MAF, hand delivered to othersdelivered to others

Special procedures for group quarters Special procedures for group quarters (dormitories, nursing homes, prisons, etc.) (dormitories, nursing homes, prisons, etc.) and the homelessand the homeless

April 1:2010 CENSUS DAYApril 1:2010 CENSUS DAY

Second Mailing to Non-RespondentsSecond Mailing to Non-Respondents Follow-up phone, house calls on Follow-up phone, house calls on

those still not responding until every those still not responding until every address on MAF accounted for—address on MAF accounted for—intensive and expensive effortintensive and expensive effort

Every 1% not responding costs $90 Every 1% not responding costs $90 million in census effortsmillion in census efforts

Post-Census Research to Post-Census Research to Estimate AccuracyEstimate Accuracy

1990 Estimated net undercount: 1.6%: 1990 Estimated net undercount: 1.6%: controversy over statistical adjustment to controversy over statistical adjustment to correctcorrect

2000 Estimated net overcount: 0.7%: 2000 Estimated net overcount: 0.7%: adjustment could not improveadjustment could not improve

Net = Undercount - OvercountNet = Undercount - Overcount

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