M S C the World in 2050 Modified

8/3/2019 M S C the World in 2050 Modified

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The World in 2050Challenges and Opportunities

for Modelling and Simulation

Richard Zobel

Dept. of Computer Engineering

Prince of Songkla UniversityPhuket

Thailand


2/22

Global Problems and Challenges:

Can Modelling and Simulation Help?

1 Climate Change Consequences

2 Threats from Earth Movements3 Approaching Asteroid Threats

4 Overpopulation Consequences5 More Violent Weather

6 Possible Military Threats


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Climate Change Symptoms

1 Rising Sea Levels

2 Higher Temperatures

3 Loss of Habitat Due to Fires

4 Migration of Species and Diseases

5 Migration of Peoples

6 Loss of Agricultural Land

7 Famine and Fighting


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Climate Change Consequences

1 Smaller land area, loss of shore

2 Drier climate, drought, crops

3 Major fires causing destruction

4 Addition or loss of species

5 People move to temperate areas

6 Less agriculture, food shortage

7 Starvation and wars


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Fresh Water Needs

There is insufficient supply of fresh water in manycountries.

Desalination of seawater can solve this problem, but

requires energy.


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Typical Multistage Flash Converter SeawaterDesalination Plant in the Middle East

(Copyright & Courtesy of Parsons Brinkerhoff)


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Additional System Requirements

1 Local Power Source

2 Storage and Distribution

3 Brine Waste Disposal

4 Environmental Consequences

5 Rate of Production

6 Capital and Running Costs

7 Maintenance


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Solar Panel Array


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Wind Power

Typical Wind Turbine

Low Power OutputNeed Large Numbers

No power without wind

Best out at sea


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Modelling and Simulation -a Systems Approach

1 Link models and simulations

2 Scale local or regional

3 Consider management

4 Consider operations of neighbours

5 Rate of Production and Storage

6 Wind is good with water storage

7 Saline waste disposal is a problem


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Energy Supply and Power Generation

Types of Power Generation

1 Carbon Based (Oil, Coal, Gas)2 Water Based (Wave, Tidal, Rivers)

3 Wind Based4 Solar Based

5 Nuclear Based


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Oil Production 1930-2050(Courtesy F. Cellier, ETH, Zurich)


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Oil and Natural Gas Production

The figure shows a declining situation.

New sources have poor yieldThis needs more energy for extraction

Meanwhile there is population increase

Rising sea level means less land

Low carbon technologies are not up to speed yet


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Conventional Nuclear Power

This is increasing with newer designs.

However, only a small proportion of the enriched

uranium is used low efficiency.

Fast breeder reactors are needed.

Plutonium reactors are being developed.

This would lead to substantial reduction in stored spent

Uranium, and substantial reduction in stored Plutonium.


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Control Room of Paks Nuclear Power Station Training Simulator

Courtesy J. S-Janosy, KFKI, Budapest, Hungary


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Nuclear Fusion

This is a method for power generationusing a similar atomic reaction as the Sun

Prototype is under construction in France

It might be operational by 2050.

There are other related methods

They do NOT use Uranium, Plutonium, etc

They should solvelong term energy needs


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Design of International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor


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Design of International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor(Courtesy of Zoletnik, Association EURATOM/HAS, KFKI, Hungary)


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Climate Change Effect

Warmer, drier, more violent weather, etc Rising sea levels consequences!

Loss of:

land, capital cities, food production, etc Reduced habitable areas Over population Mass migration of peoples

These need to be modelled in advance toobtain estimates of the consequences for

each region and circumstance.


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Some Major Challenges

Earthquakes and TsunamiCaused by plate tectonics, landslides,geophysical adjustments, etc

Flash Floods and MudslidesCaused by extreme weather, local geography,poor water course management, poor construction, etc

Meteor StrikeUnpredictable, but detectable?

Solutions are requiredto minimise loss of life, damage, and financial loss


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The World in 2050Conclusions

The Key Issues:

The most important contributors for solving these

real problemsahead of disasters are modellers andsimulationists who are:

Scientists, Technologists

Engineers and Mathematicians:

Who employ a whole systems approach, not piecemeal

This means YOU!

Documents

M S C the World in 2050 Modified