M. Valentino Romeri (IAEE and IAHE member, Italy ... PDF... · The January 2002 “Fuel Cell Market Prospects and Intervention Strategies”2 UNEP Final Report. The United Nations

WHEC 16 / 13-16 June 2006 – Lyon France

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Hydrogen, a bridge between mobility and distributed generation.

Some consideration towards the hydrogen economy

M. Valentino Romeri

(IAEE and IAHE member, Italy, [email protected]) ABSTRACT: In this paper were analysed the most recent energy initiatives started by some national and international institution, whit particular focus on hydrogen and fuel cell. It were also overviewed the national roadmaps towards the hydrogen economy. In 2004, based on the most authoritative available data regarding future FCVs penetration it was observed that, if vehicle power-generation system fuel cell based becomes more sophisticated, the role of the vehicles within the power grid might change. Fuel Cell Vehicle (FVC) could become a new power-generation source, supplying electricity to home and to the grid. Also, it was defined the dimension of this new kind of power generation source in different areas and it was compared with the related power grid installed generation capacity and it was found that this new source could be a multiple of the foreseeable installed capacity in year 2030. In the present work it was revised the analysis with the most recent scenarios and it was found that the results don’t change significantly. Unfortunately this kind of analysis is still not considered in the energy debate or in the roadmaps towards the hydrogen economy.

KEYWORDS: Hydrogen Economy, Fuel Cell Vehicle, Vehicle-to-Grid, Roadmap

1 Introduction In the second paragraph is given an overview about some main energy initiatives started by few national and international institution, with particular focus on hydrogen and fuel cell. In the third paragraph are summarized the activities and the roadmaps-visions made by some other IPHE States Member. In the fourth paragraph is revised the analysis made in the 2004 paper and regarding the possible future link between mobility and distributed generation realized by the hydrogen vector. If vehicle power-generation system fuel cell based becomes more sophisticated, the role of the vehicles within the power grid may change. Fuel Cell Vehicle (FVC) could become a new power-generation source, supplying electricity to home and to the grid. The new 2006 data was illustrated and commented. They confirmed that this new source could be a multiple of the foreseeable installed capacity in 2030. Unfortunately this kind of analysis is still not considered in the energy debate. 2 The main international and national initiatives in the latest years In this paragraph is given an overview about some main energy initiatives started by few international institution, with particular focus on hydrogen and fuel cell. This overview cover also the initiatives realized in U.S., Europe and Japan, starting from 2004. 2.1 The main International Institutions The overview start with the main energy initiatives realized by: United Nation, G8, IEA and IPHE. 2.1.1 The United Nation (UN) On 16 February 2005 entered into force the "Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - UNFCCC" (adopted on December 1997). Under the United Nations auspices different initiatives regarding hydrogen and fuel cell was done: The workshop “Commercialisation of Fuel Cell Buses: Potential Roles for the Global Environment Facility (GEF)”1 held on April 2000, at UN Headquarters in New York. Hosted by UNDP and UNEP, sponsored by the GEF, the Workshop is part of a broader initiative to assess the role of fuel cells in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in GEF program countries. The January 2002 “Fuel Cell Market Prospects and Intervention Strategies”2 UNEP Final Report. The United Nations University Conference on “Hydrogen Fuel Cells and Alternatives in the Transport Sector: Issues for Developing Countries”3 held on November 2005, in Mastricht, NL. 2.1.2 The G8 Gleneagles Summit At the 2005 annual G8 Summit, met at Gleneagles4 (UK), the G8 Leaders were joined for the discussion on climate change and the global economy by the leaders of Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa and by the heads of the IEA, IMF, UN, World Bank, and WTO.


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In this occasion the G8 Leaders issued a statement setting out the common purpose in tackling climate change, promoting clean energy and achieving sustainable development. All the participants agreed that climate change is happening now, that human activity is contributing to it, and that it could affect every part of the globe. The emissions must slow, peak and then decline, moving us towards a low-carbon economy. This will require leadership from the developed world. They resolved to take urgent action to meet these challenges. The Gleneagles discussions mark the beginning of a new Dialogue between the G8 nations and other countries with significant energy needs, consistent with the aims and principles of the UNFCCC. This will explore how best to exchange technology, reduce emissions, and meet the energy needs in a sustainable way, as implemented and build on the Plan of Action. All the participants will take measures to develop markets for clean energy technologies, to increase their availability in developing countries, and to help vulnerable communities adapt to the impact of climate change. The Gleneagles Plan of Action identified the following key areas: Transforming the way we use energy. Powering a cleaner future. Promoting research and development. Financing the transition to cleaner energy. Managing the impact of climate change. Tackling illegal logging. The G8 Leaders decided to work with appropriate partnerships, institutions and initiatives including the IEA and World Bank. The IEA was advised on alternative energy scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean clever and competitive energy future. 2.1.3 The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the IEA Hydrogen Co-ordination Group (HCG) The IEA5 acts as energy policy adviser for its 26 member countries in their efforts to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for their citizens. Founded during the oil crisis of 1973-74, the IEA focuses on oil market issues, climate change policies, market reform and energy technology collaboration. IEA conducts a broad programme of energy research (the most known is the annual Word Energy Outlook, that include also the alternative energy scenario), data compilation, publications and public dissemination of the latest energy policy analysis and recommendations on good practices. At present the IEA is the most authoritative energy international institution. The IEA “Hydrogen Co-ordination Group – HCG”6 was established in April 2003 with four tasks: develop a comparative programme and policy review of relevant national programmes; review ongoing activities in IEA Implementing Agreements to identify needed work on critical-path technologies; recommend additional collaboration or other activities within the context of IEA's technology collaboration and identify analyses and support to help guide the IEA work. All these tasks have been completed and the HCG met the final meeting in June 2005. In December 2004, IEA published the report “Hydrogen & Fuel Cells – Review of National R&D Programs”7. The report maps the IEA countries’ current efforts to research, develop and deploy the interlocking elements that constitute a “hydrogen economy”. It provides an overview of what is being done, and by whom, covering an extensive complexity of national government R&D programmes. The report “Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells”8 was published in December 2005, and made a policy analysis to help the IEA work. “The book explores the potential of hydrogen and fuel cells in future energy markets, where emerging fuels and technologies compete for providing energy services at low costs and with reduced emissions. The study suggests that hydrogen and fuel cells may have a significant role in the energy system if current targets for reducing their costs can be met and if Governments give high priority to policies for reducing CO2 emissions and oil dependence. In the next few decades, hydrogen costs need to be reduced three to ten fold and fuel cell costs by ten to fifty fold. Substantial improvements are also needed in hydrogen transportation and storage, and fuel cell performance. At same time, Governments need to implement decisive policies and incentives to promote emission savings and diversify the energy supply. In most favourable conditions, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles would enter the market around 2025 and power 30% of the global stock of vehicles by 2050 –the equivalent of about 700 million vehicles (see the figure on the right 9). The oil saving would then be equivalent to some 13% of global oil demand (or 5% of the global energy demand). Because the fuel cell efficiency is more than twice that of combustion engines, the energy needed to fuel these hydrogen vehicles would be less than 3% of the global energy demand. Fuel cell performance and costs, hydrogen distribution, and on-board storage systems are critical to this achievement. Under these conditions, the collective impact of hydrogen and other emerging technologies could halve global CO2 emissions by 2050. However, in less favourable circumstances, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are unlikely to reach the critical mass for market uptake and other low carbon technologies such as biofuels might gain additional market share. Stationary fuel cells applications are less sensitive to energy policies and competing technology options. Mostly fuelled by natural gas, stationary fuel cells can contribute to meeting the demand for combined heat and power with 200-300 GW, equal to 2-3% of global generating capacity in 2050”10.


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In January 2006, IEA Hydrogen Implementing Agreement published the paper “Hydrogen Production & Storage - R&D Priorities and Gaps”11. It reviews the IEA R&D activities and collaborations. 2.1.4 The International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy (IPHE) The “International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy – IPHE” 12 was launched in November 2003 in Washington, D.C. in a meeting where Ministers from the sixteen members of the IPHE signed the Terms of Reference. Members include Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, European Commission, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, India, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Norway, Russia, U.S., and UK. Only governments, or governmental bodies, can become partners. To be eligible to join the IPHE, countries should have a hydrogen roadmap or a process in place to develop such a document. In fact, many member countries do not have a roadmap as such, but do have “vision statements” or other hydrogen strategy documents. In 2003 the IPHE also committed to provide assistance to three countries that had not made major progress toward developing a roadmap or strategy: Brazil, China and India. The IPHE’s goal is to accelerate the transition to a hydrogen economy through collaboration among members on policy development; research, development and demonstration efforts; development of codes and standards; and information sharing and dissemination. The IPHE has two committees: a Steering Committee (SC) to set policy, and an Implementation and Liaison Committee (ILC) to carry out IPHE activities. In May 2004, the Steering Committee met in Beijing defined the “Beijing Action Plan” and set out the first priorities for the IPHE, one of the main is to compile an integrated IPHE roadmap. In January 2006, the IPHE Secretariat proposed13 to redefine and extend the roadmap process to help define a broader IPHE strategic approach and to deliver two key strategic products: a “Priority Scorecard” (a tool derived from risk scorecards used in project management) and an “Activity Matrix” (a list of activities cross-referenced to scorecard). 2.2 United States United States is still facing a fundamental energy concern. Internal demand for oil should increase by nearly 42% by 2030 (EIA 200614) and petroleum imports, that in 2004 supplied 58% of domestic needs, should grow to 68% by 2030 (see the figures below 15).

Some years ago the U.S. Government decided to work to reduce the dependence on foreign sources of energy, to increase affordable energy domestic supplies, to reduce air pollution and to address concerns about climate change. To address these challenge, the 2001 U.S. President’s “National Energy Policy”16 called for expanding the development of diverse domestic energy supplies. In the 2003 State of the Union address17, President G. W. Bush acknowledged that hydrogen has the potential to play a major role in America’s future energy system. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) recognises that the development of hydrogen as an energy carrier will help to address national concerns about energy supply, security, and environmental protection. In this aim, before April 2004, the DOE promoted a series of fundamental initiatives toward the hydrogen economy18. In January 2005, was published the final version of the “Hydrogen, Fuel Cells & Infrastructure Technologies Program – Multy-Year Research, Development and Demonstration Plan – MYPP”19 (draft in June 2003). In this document DOE identified the key program milestones necessary to meet the technical targets of the hydrogen energy system and the fuel cell technology until 2010. These milestones support the critical path technologies outlined by DOE. Each of the timelines specifies a delivery date for the given technology development, improvement, or demonstration. The go/no go decision milestones are also identified. In July 2005, was announced the “Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development – APP”20. United States, Australia, China, India, Japan, and South Korea are joining to accelerate clean development. The APP will focus on voluntary practical measures taken by these six countries in the Asia-Pacific region to create new investment opportunities, build local capacity, and remove barriers to the introduction of clean, more efficient technologies. The APP will help each country meet nationally designed strategies for improving energy security, reducing pollution, and addressing the long-term challenge of climate change. On January 2006, at the inaugural Ministerial meeting in Sydney21, the Ministers agreed a Charter22, Communiqué23 and Work Plan24 that outline a groundbreaking new model of private-public taskforces to


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address climate change, energy security and air pollution. The Charter stated that: “the partnership will be consistent with and contribute to our efforts under the UNFCCC and will complement, but not replace, the Kyoto Protocol”. In August 2005, President Bush signed into Law the First National Energy Plan in more than a decade. The “U.S. Energy Policy Act of 2005”25(Energy Bill). The President's national energy plan will encourage energy efficiency and conservation, promote alternative and renewable energy sources, reduce our dependence on foreign sources of energy, increase domestic production, modernize the electricity grid, and encourage the expansion of nuclear energy. Energy Legislation encourages energy conservation and efficiency, by supporting new energy efficient technologies. Diversifying the Nation's energy supply with renewable sources. The Energy Bill will promote the use of renewable energy sources with tax credits for wind, solar, and biomass energy, including the first-ever tax credit for residential solar energy systems. The bill also expands research into developing hydrogen technologies and establishes a flexible, national Renewable Fuels Standard to encourage greater use of renewable fuels like ethanol and biodiesel. The Energy Bill support a new generation of energy-efficient vehicles. In his FY 2006 Budget, President Bush called for new consumer tax credits for energy-efficient hybrid, clean diesel, and Fuel Cell Vehicles26. The Title VIII of the Energy Bill is focused on Hydrogen.27 In detail: Section n. 801 defined the purposes of the Act. They “are: to enable and promote comprehensive development, demonstration, and commercialisation of hydrogen and fuel cell technology in partnership with industry; to make critical public investments in building strong links to private industry, institutions of higher education, National Laboratories, and research institutions to expand innovation and industrial growth; to build a mature hydrogen economy that creates fuel diversity in the massive transportation sector of the United States; to sharply decrease the dependency of the United States on imported oil, eliminate most emissions from the transportation sector, and greatly enhance our energy security; and to create, strengthen, and protect a sustainable national energy economy”. Section n. 805 identified programs and appropriations. ”The Secretary, in consultation with other Federal agencies and the private sector, shall conduct a research and development program on technologies relating to the production, purification, distribution, storage, and use of hydrogen energy, fuel cells, and related infrastructure. The goal of the program shall be to demonstrate and commercialise the use of hydrogen for transportation (in light duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles), utility, industrial, commercial, and residential applications. (...) For vehicles, the goals of the program are: to enable a commitment by automakers no later than year 2015 to offer safe, affordable, and technically viable hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the mass consumer market; and to enable production, delivery, and acceptance by consumers of model year 2020 hydrogen fuel cell and other hydrogen-powered vehicles that will have, when compared to light duty vehicles in model year 2005: fuel economy that is substantially higher; substantially lower emissions of air pollutants; and equivalent or improved vehicle fuel system crash integrity and occupant protection. (...) Funding. (...) Hydrogen supply. There are authorized to be appropriated to carry out projects and activities relating to hydrogen production, storage, distribution and dispensing, transport, education and coordination, and technology transfer under this section: $160,000,000 for fiscal year 2006; $200,000,000 for fiscal year 2007; $220,000,000 for fiscal year 2008; $230,000,000 for fiscal year 2009; $250,000,000 for fiscal year 2010; and such sums as are necessary for each of fiscal years 2011 through 2020. Fuel Cell Technologies. There are authorized to be appropriated to carry out projects and activities relating to fuel cell technologies under this section: $150,000,000 for fiscal year 2006; $160,000,000 for fiscal year 2007; $170,000,000 for fiscal year 2008; $180,000,000 for fiscal year 2009; $200,000,000 for fiscal year 2010; and such sums as are necessary for each of fiscal years 2011 through 2020”. Section n. 808 identified demonstrations and appropriations. ”In carrying out the programs under this section, the Secretary shall fund a limited number of demonstration projects, consistent with this title and a determination of the maturity, cost-effectiveness, and environmental impacts of technologies supporting each project. (...) There are authorized to be appropriated to carry out this section: $185,000,000 for fiscal year 2006; $200,000,000 for fiscal year 2007; $250,000,000 for fiscal year 2008; $300,000,000 for fiscal year 2009; $375,000,000 for fiscal year 2010; and such sums as are necessary for each of fiscal years 2011 through 2020”. Section n. 811 request specific reports. “Not later than 2 years after the date of enactment of this Act, and triennially thereafter, the Secretary shall submit to Congress a report describing: activities carried out by the Department under this title, for hydrogen and fuel cell technology; measures the Secretary has taken during the preceding 3 years to support the transition of primary industry (or a related industry) to a fully commercialised hydrogen economy; any change made to the strategy relating to hydrogen and fuel cell technology to reflect the results of a learning demonstrations; progress, including progress in infrastructure, made toward achieving the goal of producing and deploying not less than 100,000 hydrogen-fuelled vehicles in the United States by 2010; and 2,500,000 hydrogen-fuelled vehicles in the United States by 2020; progress made toward achieving the goal of supplying hydrogen at a sufficient number of fuelling stations in the United States by 2010 including by integrating hydrogen activities; and associated targets and timetables for the development of hydrogen technologies (...)”. In September 2005, the “U.S. Climate Change Technology Program’s – CCTP” unveiled the “draft Strategic Plan”28. It’s a plan for accelerating the development and reducing the cost of new and advanced technologies that avoid, reduce, or capture and store greenhouse gas emissions – the technology component of a comprehensive U.S. approach to climate change. The technologies developed under the CCTP program will be used and deployed also among the United States' partners in the APP. The CCTP Strategic Plan provides strategic direction and organizes about $3 billion in federal spending for climate change-related technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment, needed to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and power economic growth.


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The Strategic Plan sets six complementary goals: reducing emissions from energy use and infrastructure; reducing emissions from energy supply; capturing and sequestering carbon dioxide; reducing emissions of other greenhouse gases; measuring and monitoring emissions; and bolstering the contributions of basic science to climate change. The Plan outlines approaches toward attaining these goals, articulates underlying technology development strategies, and identifies a series of next steps toward implementation (see the figure on the right 29). In January 2006, in the State of the Union address30, President G. W. Bush said: “Keeping America competitive requires affordable energy. And here we have a serious problem: America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world. The best way to break this addiction is through technology. Since 2001, we have spent nearly $10 billion to develop cleaner, cheaper, and more reliable alternative energy sources, and we are on the threshold of incredible advances. So tonight, I announce the Advanced Energy Initiative, a 22% increase in clean-energy research at the Department of Energy, to push for breakthroughs in two vital areas. To change how we power our homes and offices, we will invest more in zero-emission coal-fired plants, revolutionary solar and wind technologies, and clean, safe nuclear energy. We must also change how we power our automobiles. We will increase our research in better batteries for hybrid and electric cars, and in pollution-free cars that run on hydrogen. We'll also fund additional research in cutting-edge methods of producing ethanol, not just from corn, but also from wood chips and stalks, or switch grass. Our goal is to make this new kind of ethanol practical and competitive within six years. Breakthroughs on this and other new technologies will help us reach another great goal: to replace more than 75% of our oil imports from the Middle East by 2025. By applying the talent and technology of America, this country can dramatically improve our environment, move beyond a petroleum-based economy, and make our dependence on Middle Eastern oil a thing of the past”. In January 2006, the DOE “Roadmap on Manufacturing R&D for the Hydrogen Economy”31 draft was available. This roadmap identifies critical challenges facing the manufacture of hydrogen systems today, with a focus on fuel cell, production, delivery and storage technologies. New R&D will play a pivotal role in developing the needed manufacturing processes and supplier chains to move the U.S. towards a hydrogen energy economy. 2.3 Europe Also European Union 25 is facing a fundamental energy concern, especially for transport. The road transport sector is 98% dependent on oil and accounts approximately for 26% of GHG. Internal demand for energy should increase by nearly 35% by 2030 and energy imports should grow near 70% by 2030, from the current 50% (see the figures below 32).

Energy is currently at the earth of the economic and the political debate in Europe. See the “Green Paper on Energy Efficiency or Doing More With Less”33 (June 2005) and the “Green Paper A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy”34 (March 2006). And also “the European Council (March 200635) calls for a Energy Policy for Europe (EPE), aiming at effective Community policy, coherence between Member States and consistency between actions in different policy areas and fulfilling in a balanced way the three objectives of security of supply, competitiveness and environmental sustainability”36. Moreover “the European Council underlines that, to achieve this consistency


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both in internal and external EU policies, energy policy has to satisfy the demands of many policy areas. As part of a growth strategy and through open and competitive markets, it prompts investment, technological development, domestic and foreign trade. It is strongly linked with environment policy and is closely connected with employment, regional policy and particularly transport policy. In addition foreign and development policy aspects are gaining increasing importance to promote the energy policy objectives with other countries. Therefore, the European Council calls for an enhanced coordination between the relevant Council formations and invites the European Commission (EC) to take into account the better regulation principles when preparing further actions”37. The European research effort on Hydrogen and Fuel Cells has to be put in this broader context of the EU policy for growth and jobs (the Lisbon strategy) and the EU environment policy and commitment to reduce global warming and the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. In 2000, the EC “Green Paper: Toward a European strategy for the security of energy supply”38 underlined the still growing EU energy import dependence but also acknowledged the potential of hydrogen as a transport fuel for the future39. In October 2002, the EC announced ambitious plans to promote hydrogen and, following the High Level Group on Hydrogen and Fuel Cells advise. In January 2004, EC formally launched the European Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Platform40 (HFP) that involves the key European industrial partners and other stakeholders. The platform contributed to the development of a European strategy for R&D of hydrogen and fuel cells technologies and stimulated the development of public-private partnership to implement its research agenda and deployment strategy. The HFP strategy pursues the vision of a zero emission renewable energy system. It can be summarised as follows: the EU should put in place a 10-year technological development programme with sufficient resources (comparable to the efforts of the U.S. and Japan); this programme should be executed through a public private partnership to ensure its focus, stability, efficiency and flexibility (Joint Technology Initiative – JTI41); technological development should be complemented with large-scale demonstration projects (“Lighthouse” demonstration projects); the policy and regulatory framework should be progressively adapted to enable the optimal market entrance of these technologies. The EC, in its proposal for the 7th European Framework Programme for Research (2007-2013), following this strategic overview, has proposed the establishment of a JTI on Hydrogen and Fuel Cells. Now it is the turn of Member States and European Parliament to define their positions. During 2005 the HFP published 3 fundamental reports: the “Strategic Research Agenda”42 (July), the “Deployment Strategy”43 (August) and the “Deployment Strategy Progress Report 2005” 44 (October). The Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) was designed to: “Act as a realistic and inspirational guide to defining a comprehensive research programme that will mobilise stakeholders and ensure that European competences are at the forefront of science & technology worldwide. Help stimulate investment in research and provide guidance for policy options. (...) The SRA defines priorities for investment in R&D in the context of Europe’s strengths and weaknesses, and later industrial exploitation, which is the focus of the Deployment Strategy. Technologies thus need to be weighed against the likelihood of their coming into effect at all, in view of the envisaged timeline and the benefit they provide. It also takes into account the imminent 7th Framework Programme for research and subsequent programmes, plus the need to coordinate R&D with demonstration, deployment and financing. It therefore includes a prioritised, 10-year research program, a well-founded medium-term strategy up to 2030 and a long-term strategic outlook up to 2050”.45 In the SRA “the field of hydrogen & fuel cell technology can be broken down into five areas: hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and distribution, stationary applications, transport applications and portable applications. Socio-economic research – in terms of monitoring and forecasting – is also, however, important. Proposed budget shares for these six research areas are outlined (see the table on the right46) according to their relative importance in creating an energy economy in which hydrogen & fuel cells represent a key energy vector.”47 A detailed strategy analysis for each research areas is given in the SRA, especially for the period 2005-2015. In particular: “Transportation applications have been the major driver for hydrogen and fuel-cell technology over the past 15 years. As it can substantially deliver on both CO2 reduction and less dependence on oil it is seen as a principal single technology in the field of hydrogen & fuel cells. The recommendations for further research and development efforts in general comprise cost targets as well as reliable operation, improved efficiency and power density. Also, manufacturability and recycling issues will have to be fulfilled in order to ensure market success of the systems considered.”48 In the “Deployment Strategy” report, the Deployment Strategy Steering Panel (DSP) addresses the technical, socio-economic and political challenges of deploying world-class, competitive, hydrogen technology & fuel cell applications


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(transport, stationary and portable), the scale and the scope of the task, and recommended courses of action. “The DSP used a sequential steps to arrive at its recommendations: developed and described an intermediate milestone (“Snapshot 2020”; see the table on the right 49); Identified the SRA milestones necessary by 2015 to enable a mass market roll-out by 2020 at the latest; made a technical and market assessment of hydrogen & fuel cell technologies; assessed the social and political implications; proposed a Deployment Strategy; aligned the strategy with the goal and timelines of the SRA (see the figure below 50). While different priorities exist for transport, stationary and niche markets, the DSP recommend the fallowing general approach: (1) Prototype development (this first phase is about proof of concept and requires only a

limited number of units/vehicles – about 10). (2) Demonstration projects (requires some hundreds of units/vehicles). (3) Pre-commercial phase (the number of units/vehicles is extended to some thousands. The influence of demonstration experience is lessening and validated industrial standards are expected to be in place at the end of this phase). (4) Production phase (Products are ready for market introduction and being produced and delivered in large quantities. However, market entry support is still needed in the early years). Transport applications deployment strategy. In comparison to portables and stationary applications transport applications for hydrogen and fuel cell – mainly road vehicles – will probably perform later the transition from early applications towards mass market. Based on the present development status a broader market introduction is expected to start 2015 leading to a market share of a few percent in 2020. Still in the 2020 scenario there will be no significant

contribution of hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles to the overall vehicle fleet of today roughly 215 million units in operation (passenger cars ~ 190 million). Therefore early application plays an important role for the preparation of the beginning mass-market penetration of hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles around 202051. (...) One key aspect of a successful deployment strategy is the proper management of the transition from early applications and the build-up of an adequate hydrogen infrastructure”52. “Regarding the overall energy policy goals on security of supply, strengthening of the European economy and reduction of GHG emission H2 and FC technologies in the road transport sector in general and passenger cars in particular will have the highest long term impact. Hence, regarding transport applications first priority is given to hydrogen powered cars and linked large-scale demonstration activities. In addition the required infrastructure should also be used for the commercialisation of early market transport applications. Pursuing the deployment strategy until 2020 therefore, the following actions are recommended: Create a stable frame for large, long term fleet demonstration projects and aim to commercialise fuel cell vehicles in 2015; Focus on highly populated, urban areas to implement hydrogen clusters; Support the infrastructure build-up in an early phase by funding additional hydrogen vehicles and by implementing various actions e.g. public-buy programmes in a later phase; in parallel support APUs with reformer technology as “door-opener” for the fuel cell technology by utilising synergies with stationary FC applications such as Micro-CHP and small back up power systems”.53 The “Deployment Strategy Progress Report 2005” defined a broad roadmap for hydrogen and fuel cells that include large-scale demonstration activities under the frame of a JTI.

The main snapshot message for the transport sector is “that by 2020 already a substantial number of vehicles will be in the market in Europe. Consequently cost and performance targets for the commercial introduction of hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles have to be met earlier in order to start production of these vehicles before 2020. Another prerequisite is that an area-wide hydrogen infrastructure has to be available for refuelling the vehicles by 2020 offering hydrogen at commercially viable costs. (…) With this anchor point in mind the DS defines the following phases to reach this target (see the figure on the left 54). Phase I (until 2010): start of large-scale comprehensive demonstration projects. Phase II (2010 – 2012): extension of demonstration sites. Phase III (2012-2015): preparation of a commercialisation in major


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European markets. Phase IV (2015 -2020): transition towards mass-market commercialisation. (…) This generic step-wise logic needs to be developed in more detail taking into account the progress that can be made in terms of technology improvements (technology roadmap) as well as in terms of cost reductions. Quality gates have to be defined to serve as decision points to proceed to the next phase. (…) Today’s demonstration projects require a lot of private and public funding due to the high costs for hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles. This will also be true for the next generation of vehicles. Since customer contributions cannot be expected to cover large parts of these costs, these demonstration projects need to be financed through a cost sharing model involving public and private sources. As the delta costs get smaller, other financial models using incentives to motivate the usage of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies may become more appropriate. Once the cost of ownership for hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles has reached the level for those of conventional vehicles, market forces will dictate the further development of both technologies. (…) The roadmap shows how to proceed from demonstration projects to commercial vehicles in the market based on the fact that different financial models will apply (“cost sharing” and “incentives”). The general idea is to build up the number of vehicles (from smaller to larger fleets, from commercial use to private customers) as well as the availability of hydrogen as a fuel (from a few sites to clusters to networks and finally to an area-wide coverage) based on passing through quality gates. The more the technology moves towards market maturity, the more it is expected that the customers will participate in the funding of the respective projects, in the sense that they will pay for the mobility, which the vehicles provide”55. 2.4 Japan Japan depends on energy imports for over 80% of its energy supply. With few indigenous energy resources hydrogen could offers the first real opportunity to achieve energy self-sufficiency. Following several studies and Fuel Cell Commercialization Conference of Japan (FCCJ)56, a Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry’s (METI) strategy emerged in 2001 for the practical application and implementation of fuel cell technologies. In February 2002 Prime Minister J. Koizumi made a basic policy speech57 regarding the hydrogen economy to the Diet and in May 2002 an inter-ministries Official Taskforce of Ministries and Agencies Concerned with Practical Application of Fuel Cell was established. The Japanese Government strategy is based on a three-stage commercialization plan58: the Introduction Stage (2005 to 2010), the Diffusion Stage (2010 to 2020) and the Full-Scale Diffusion Stage (2020 to 2030). In the first stage the introduction of vehicles will be also accelerated with the gradual establishment of the fuel supply system. In this context is running the Japan Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Demonstration Project (JHFC)59. 3 Other main nationals Roadmap, Vision or Activity toward the Hydrogen Economy In this paragraph are summarized the activities and the roadmaps-visions made by some of the other IPHE States Member not above mentioned. AUSTRALIA – In its energy White Paper (June 2004), the Australian government recognised that the country should be prepared for a possible transition to a hydrogen economy in the long term, and that there will be significant opportunities and challenges associated with such a transition. In 2003 was published a “National Hydrogen Study”, and the report “Australia's Hydrogen Activities”60 was realized in July 2005. Australia’s support for H2FC research occurs mainly through generally available measures. CANADA – This country has a long involvement in the development of H2FC, with government investment since the early 1980s. Ballard PEM FC and Stuart Energy electrolyser was successful technologies supported during the late 1980s. Until recently, the Canadian H2FC programme was largely focused on research and development. The vision of the national program is to strengthen and enhance Canada’s leadership position in H2FC with the goal of accelerating the commercialisation of Canadian products. Canada’s program targets are delineated in 3 phases, concentrating on RD&D and early deployments in the first five years; broad-based deployment in the period 5 to 10 years out; market expansion in the longer-term. Many studies and reports are realized, and many demonstration activities are in place. “Towards a National H2 and Fuel Cell Strategy for Canada”61 is the new long term vision for Canada’s participation in the H2 economy together with a phased action plan, with an initial focus on short-term actions to support the H2FC sector to commercialise the technology. The Discussion Document and the stakeholder consultations was completed, the Strategy will be finalized in 2006. FRANCIA – Research on fuel cells started in France in the early 1960s, before it was abandoned in the late 1970s. The activity in PEM FC restarted in the 1990s. CEA, CNRS and industrial companies are carrying out R&D programs on massive hydrogen production using innovative high temperature processes. Part of the research, regarding the feasibility and developing a thermochemical cycle to produce hydrogen and heat from future HTR nuclear plants, is a joint program with U.S. DOE (under the Generation IV umbrella). Studies and reports are realized, and demonstration activities are in place. The importance of hydrogen R&D is continuously increasing in France62. The creation in 2005 of the National Research Agency could have a major impact on developing public private partnerships. The Agency is now in the middle of a discussion of large demonstration projects with industry. GERMANY – Is one of the world leaders in H2FC technology development and implementation. The “Programme on Investment into the Future” (ZIP) was started in 2001 to focus on FC development and demonstration. “The Clean Energy Partnership” is, worldwide, one of the main project to demonstrate


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hydrogen as a transportation fuel. The Bavarian “Hydrogen Initiative,” that includes the Munich Airport Project, was the first public hydrogen station worldwide. Germany has a strong participation in the EC DG Research activities (FP) and other international contexts. Recently was announced63 a new “National Hydrogen & Fuel Cells Programme” with additional funding from the Federal Government (500 million euro for the next 10 years, matched by private funds, in total more than 1 billion euro). ITALY – In 2003 a National R&D Programme on Hydrogen and Fuel Cells, supported by Ministry of Research and University and by Ministry for the Environment and Territory64, has been outlined. In March 2003, within the so-called FISR Programme, the Ministry of Research launched a call for proposal on new systems for energy production and management including H2FC activities. In May 2004 the Ministry for the Environment and Territory outlined an Italy pathways to H2 economy65. In July 2004, the Parliament approved the bill “Reform and rearrangement of the energy sector”66. The energy bill” introduces an important rule: “electricity produced using hydrogen and power produced in stationary system or fuel cell using hydrogen have the right to issue green certificates”67. In September 2004 the Ministry of Research promoted the Italian Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Platform, leaded by Centro Ricerche Fiat (CRF)68. After different meetings, a group of main Italian players realized in September 2005 a detailed RD&D roadmap (draft version) covering the period 2006-2015. The Italian data regarding the FCVs’ market penetration came from the Unione Petrolifera’s report “Previsioni di domanda energetica e petrolifera italiana 2006-2020”69. In this scenario 150 thousand FCVs will be on the road in 2015 and 500 thousand in 2020. KOREA – The FC technology has been selected as one of the most important and promising technologies, requiring the Korean Government’s full support since 1990. A fundamental technology development program for PEMFC, SOFC, DMFC and next generation FC has also been initiated. It is aimed at eliminating barriers to the commercialisation of FC. In year 2000, the Ministry of Science & Technology (MOST) initiated the “High-Efficient Hydrogen Production Program,” which formed the foundation of Korea’s current program: “21st Century Frontier Hydrogen R&D Program” (2003). A new hydrogen program under the National RD&D Organisation for Hydrogen and Fuel Cell, a subsidiary to Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy (MOCIE), was initiated in 2004. This program is to expedite the commercialisation of H2FC technology. Alongside these well-defined R&D objectives and policy assessment, the Korean government has a series of roadmaps. In March 2006, at the IPHE Steering Committee in Vancouver, was illustrated70 a new Korean Vision toward the Hydrogen Economy and a new Hydrogen Economy Roadmap by 2040. Promote Hydrogen Economy as a feasible option to replace fossil fuels, though it takes time. The realization of the Hydrogen Economy is forecasted by 2040. A National Plan for the Hydrogen Economy is illustrated, in which the Hydrogen energy will have a portion in final energy of 15% and the FC industry will have a 5% portion of the GDP. The Vision is the Creation of New Hydrogen Fuel Cell Industry with: 60% of H2 produced from renewables; the replacement of 54% of automobile fuel by H2 energy; the replacement of 22% of power plant by FC generation; the replacement of 23% of residential power by FC generation. UNITED KINGDOM – The UK DTI has been supporting industrial research on FC since 1992 under its Advanced Fuel Cell Programme. The programme focus has changed from supporting studies designed to inform the DTI and the industry regarding the prospects for FC to work supporting the development of UK capabilities. Over the year, the UK has broadly investigated the potential of H2FC, and has produced a number of documents to guide the development of its FC industry71. In 2005 was published the “UK Fuel Cell Development and Deployment Roadmap”72. In 2004 the DTI commissioned a report to identify UK expertise in Hydrogen. “A Strategic Framework for Hydrogen Energy in the UK” was published in December 2004. The key message from the analysis is that for the UK, the use of hydrogen as a transport fuel offers significant opportunities for cost-competitive CO2 reduction by 2030. The “Government’s response” 73 was set out by the Energy Minister in June 2005. The Government reply was positive, and announced a 4 years funding package for UK demonstrations of H2FC energy technologies. The precise nature of the funding mechanism is currently being determined and will be subject to state aid rules. BRAZIL, CHINA and INDIA – The countries assisted by IPHE in the effort to define their vision and roadmaps toward the hydrogen economy. Brazil identified 4 phases toward the Hydrogen economy Development74. In the first phase was unveiled a “beta” version of its roadmap (2005). The actual phase is focused on the organization of projects. The next phase (2006-2007) include the roadmap revision and the “Brazilian Hydrogen Program” launch. The “implementation of activities” phase is planned for the period 2007-2025. Ethanol will be the main source of H2 production in Brazil. China has held workshops with Chinese and U.S. representatives on the “China Hydrogen Vision and Roadmap” in May 2004.”The vision for hydrogen energy in China” (draft report)75 identified three phases.


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Phase 1 “R&D and Demonstration” (to 2020), with strong government support and international collaborations. Phase 2 “Market Entry” (2020-2050). Phase 3 “Hydrogen Economy” (beyond 2050). India presented its roadmap in September 200576. The “National Hydrogen Energy Board” realized the implementation of the “National Hydrogen Energy Road Map and Program”. The roadmap: provides long term solution to meet growing energy needs of India while ensuring energy security; identifies paths for gradual introduction of hydrogen energy in the country; accelerate commercialization efforts; facilitate creation of hydrogen energy infrastructure; identified a total systems approach for developing hydrogen energy technologies. The roadmap is based on public-private partnership and is an industry driven planning process guided by the Government. Two major initiatives were identified, with goals and targets up to 2020: the “Green Initiative for Future Transport” (GIFT) and the “Green Initiative for Power Generation” (GIP)77.

4 The 2004 study, and the analysis of the new data 4.1 The 2004 study The paper “Hydrogen: a new possible bridge between mobility and distributed generation (CHP)” 78 was written in April 2004, and presented in September 2004 in Sydney at the WEC 19th World Energy Congress. It underlined that, if vehicle power-generation system fuel cell based becomes more sophisticated, the role of the vehicles within the power grid may change. The Fuel Cell Vehicles (FVC) could become a new power-generation source, especially for Distributed Generation (DG) and micro-CHP systems, supplying electricity to home and to the grid79. In 2004, based on the most authoritative available data regarding future FCVs penetration scenarios80, was defined the dimension of this new kind of power generation source in three different areas (U.S., Europe and Japan) and it was compared it with the related power grid installed generation capacity. It was found that this new source could be a multiple of the foreseeable additional or installed capacity in 2030. 4.2 The new data Here are summarized the latest available data regarding the pathway to future FCVs’ market penetration for the U.S., EU and Japan areas. As in the 2004 study, we prefer the policy-makers’ scenarios for the higher commitment. Today all the data considered came from policy-makers (or are requested by), but some scenarios are the same of 2004. In this case, they were only mentioned. It is useful to remember that every scenario is dependent on the input assumptions used, and that every scenarios suppose that all of the actual RD&D, technical and cost barriers will be overcome in the future, and consequently if these assumption are modified all the considerations made could change. 4.2.1 The U.S. data The National Academy’s Hydrogen Economy (2004)81 and the DOE’s Hydrogen Posture Plan (2004)82 scenarios are the same of the 2004 paper. In the DOE’s MYPP (2005), the FCV penetration scenario is the same of the DOE’s Hydrogen Posture Plan (2004). 4.2.2 The EU data The new EU data regarding the pathway to the FCVs’ market penetration basically came from EC initiatives. HyWays is an integrated project (under the 6th FP). It combines technology databases and socio/techno/ economic analysis to evaluate selected stakeholder scenarios for future sustainable hydrogen energy systems. This will lead to recommendations for a European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap reflecting country specific reality in the participating member states. In February 2006 the report “A European Roadmap - Assumptions and robust results from Phase I”83 was posted on the web. After a complex analysis and based on hypothetic quantitative scenarios an S-Curve was calibrated to the generic production volumes and used to extrapolate the FCVs penetration shares until 2050. Two scenarios for the potential development of hydrogen vehicles were made: the High Penetration and the Low Penetration (see the table on the right84). The “Deployment Strategy” (of the European Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Platform) gives, as key assumption for the 2020 scenario (see paragraph 2.3), a projection range of between 0,4 and 1,8 million of H2-FC vehicles sold per year, and a projection of a cumulative sales range of between 1 and 5 million. 4.2.3 The Japan data The METI’s scenario85 unveiled in 2001 and integrated in 2004 is the same of the 2004 paper. 4.3 The Vehicle-to-Grid international analysis Using the data included in the above-mentioned scenarios and the forecast (the same of 200486) regarding the future installed power generation capacity on the different areas, it is possible to elaborate some considerations for the years 2020 and 2030.


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4.3.1 The analysis in 2020 Based on the above scenarios’ numbers and assuming some hypotheses where necessary87, it’s possible to

identify the total number of FCVs on the road in 2020 an 2030 for each scenario (see Table n. 1). Assuming two different sizes for the fuel cell installed on the vehicles (80kW and 100 kW) we could define the total FCVs installed peak

power generation capacity for each scenario (see Table n. 2).

If we compare this data with the installed power generation capacity in 2020 (IEA data, see Table n. 3) it’s possible to calculate the Vehicle-to-Grid installed capacity ratio for the year 2020 (see Table n. 4). The Vehicle-to-Grid installed capacity ratio shows: a range of between 0.3x and 0.8x for the U.S.; a range of between 0.1x and 0.8x for EU; a range of between 1.6x and 2.0x for Japan; and a range of between 0.3x and 0.9x for the data regarding the U.S., EU and Japan considered as a single macro-area. 4.3.2 Some considerations about 2030 In year 2004, the only forecast regarding the installed power generation capacity for 2030 (in aggregate terms) was given by the IEA World Energy Investment Outlook 2003 where was indicated a forecast of 7.157 GW of installed power generation capacity for the entire world. Based on the same IEA forecast and using the present pattern of FCVs forecast we observe that (see Table n. 5) today the FCVs’ total installed peak power generation of the single macro-area analysed will overcome the world forecast installed power generation capacity in 2 of 4 cases (In 2004 study was in 3 of 4 cases). Using the IEA scenario made in the report “Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells (see paragraph 2.1.3), is possible to identified total number of FCVs on the road worldwide in 203088. Based on the IEA scenario, around 155 million FCVs will be on the roads in 2030. Our bottom-up approach suggests for the single macro-area a range of between 66 and 162 million FCVs on the road. Unfortunately, until now, this kind of analysis is still not considered in the energy debate89 and in the roadmaps towards the hydrogen economy. 1 http://www.undp.org/gef/fuel-cell/agenda.htm 2 http://www.uneptie.org/energy/act/ tp/docs/FinalReport_FCStrategy.pdf 3 http://www.intech.unu.edu/events/workshops/hfc05/workshop_materials.php 4 http://www.g8.gov.uk/servlet/Front?pagename=OpenMarket/Xcelerate/ShowPage&c=Page&cid=1078995902703 5 http://www.iea.org.

Table 1 - Fuel Cell Vehicles on the road (FCVs million)Area Scenario 2020 2030

U.S. National Academy’s Hydrogen Economy (2004) 3,6 36,9 U.S. DOE’s Hydrogen Posture Plan (2004), MYPP (2005) 8,9 102,0 EU HyWay Maximum (2006) 6,3 45,0 EU HyWay Minimum (2006) 1,3 14,4 EU HFP Deployment Strategy Maximum (2005) 5,0 EU HFP Deployment Strategy Minimum (2005) 1,0 Japan METI's (2001-2004) 5,0 15,0 single macro-area U.S. + EU + Japan [Maximum] 20,2 162,0 single macro-area U.S. + EU + Japan [Minimum] 9,6 66,3

Table 2 - Total FCVs installed peak power generation capacity in 2020 - 2030 (GW)Area Scenario Fuel Cell size 80 kW Fuel Cell size 100 kW

2020 2030 2020 2030U.S. National Academy’s Hydrogen Economy (2004) 285,6 2.951,2 357,0 3.689,0 U.S. DOE’s Hydrogen Posture Plan (2004), MYPP (2005) 714,0 8.160,0 892,5 10.200,0 EU HyWay Maximum (2006) 501,6 3.602,4 627,0 4.503,0 EU HyWay Minimum (2006) 106,4 1.155,2 133,0 1.444,0 EU HFP Deployment Strategy Maximum (2005) 400,0 500,0 EU HFP Deployment Strategy Minimum (2005) 80,0 100,0 Japan METI's (2001-2004) 400,0 1.200,0 500,0 1.500,0 single macro-area U.S. + EU + Japan [Maximum] 1.615,6 12.962,4 2.019,5 16.203,0 single macro-area U.S. + EU + Japan [Minimum] 765,6 5.306,4 957,0 6.633,0

Table 3 - Electricity Generating Capacity (GW)Area Source 2020 2030

U.S. IEA 2002 Electricity Information 1.136,2 EU IEA WEIO 2003 792,0 Japan IEA 2002 Electricity Information (no autoproducers) 248,1 WORLD IEA WEIO 2003 7.157,0

Table 4 - Vehicle-to-Grid installed capacity ratio in 2020Area Scenario FC 80 kW FC 100 kW

U.S. National Academy’s Hydrogen Economy (2004) 25,1% 31,4%U.S. DOE’s Hydrogen Posture Plan (2004), MYPP (2005) 62,8% 78,5%EU HyWay Maximum (2006) 63,3% 79,2%EU HyWay Minimum (2006) 13,4% 16,8%EU HFP Deployment Strategy Maximum (2005) 50,5% 63,1%EU HFP Deployment Strategy Minimum (2005) 10,1% 12,6%Japan METI's (2001-2004) 161,2% 201,5%single macro-area U.S. + EU + Japan [Maximum] 74,2% 92,8%single macro-area U.S. + EU + Japan [Minimum] 26,9% 33,6%

Table 5 - Total FCVs installed peak power generation capacity in 2030 (GW)Area Scenario FC 80 kW FC 100 kW

single macro-area U.S. + EU + Japan [Maximum] 12.962,4 16.203,0 single macro-area U.S. + EU + Japan [Minimum] 5.306,4 6.633,0


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6 See: IPHE Steering Committee Meeting, Vancouver, Canada, March 2006. R. Dixon presentation “ IEA Hydrogen Coordination Group” http://www.iphe.net/IPHErestrictedarea/5th%20IPHE%20SC%20mtg/Final%20Presentations/IPHE/WED%20AM/Bob%20Dixon %20-%20IEA%20Hydrogen%20Coordination%20Group.pdf 7 http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2004/hydrogen.pdf 8 http://www.iea.org/bookshop/add.aspx?id=308 9 http://www.iea.org/Textbase/nptable/Share%20of%20hydrogen-fuelled%20vehicles%20in%20the%20passenger%20car%20and%20 light-medium%20truck%20markets.pdf 10 http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=167 11 http://www.iea.org/Textbase/papers/2006/hydrogen.pdf 12 www.iphe.net 13 See: IPHE Implementation-Liaison Committee Meeting Shanghai, China January 2006. Document “IPHE Strategic Process and Products” http://www.iphe.net/IPHErestrictedarea/ILC%20Shanghai%20presentations/Thursday%20Shanghai/1st%20IPHE%20 Roadmap%20Process%2019%20Jan%2006.pdf 14 See: ”Annual Energy Outlook 2006, With Projections to 2030” February 2006. DOE/EIA http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383 (2006).pdf 15 See: 2006 EIA Energy Outlook and Modeling Conference, March 2006. J. Conti presentation “Overview of the Annual Energy Outlook 2006” http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/conf/pdf/conti.pdf 16 http://www.energy.gov/about/nationalenergypolicy.htm http://www.whitehouse.gov/energy/National-Energy-Policy.pdf US NEP 2001 17 http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/01/20030128-19.html 18 In January 2002 was launched the FreedomCAR Partnership ( http://www.uscar.org/freedomcar/ ). In February 2002 was published “A National Vision of America's Transition to a Hydrogen Economy—to 2030 and Beyond” ( http://www.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfu elcells/pdfs/vision_doc.pdf ). In November 2002 was unveiled “The National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap”. ( http://www.eere.energy.gov /hydrogenandfuelcells /pdfs/national_h2_roadmap.pdf ). In February 2003 was published the “DOE's Fuel Cell Report to Congress”, ( http://www.eere.energy.gov/hydrogen andfuelcells/pdfs/fc_report_congress_feb2003.pdf ). In June 2003 was unveiled the draft of the “Hydrogen, Fuel Cells & Infrastructure Technologies Program – Multy-year Research, Development and Demonstration Plan” (MYPP), ( http://www.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/mypp/ , seen in April 2004). In February 2004 was published the “DOE's Hydrogen Posture Plan”, ( http://www.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/ pdfs/hydrogen_posture_plan.pdf ). 19 “Hydrogen, Fuel Cells & Infrastructure Technologies Program – Multy-Year Research, Development and Demonstration Plan”. January 2005. Washington, D.C. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy05osti/34289.pdf 20 http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/07/20050727-11.html 21 http://www.dfat.gov.au/environment/climate/ap6/ 22 http://www.dfat.gov.au/environment/climate/ap6/charter.html 23 In the Communique is underlined that: “The Work Plan is focused on power generation and distribution, as well as key industry sectors. (...) They have jointly established eight public-private sector Task Forces covering: cleaner fossil energy; renewable energy and distributed generation; power generation and transmission; steel; aluminium; cement; coal mining; and buildings and appliances. (...) The Vision Statement detailed a rich array of other sectors, such as transport and agriculture, where we will explore co-operation as the Partnership develops. We envisage that future meetings will address other sectors of interest, cross-cutting matters, as well as to provide a forum for sharing experiences in developing and implementing our national sustainable development and energy strategies”. http://www.dfat.gov.au/environment/climate/ap6/communique.html 24 http://www.dfat.gov.au/environment/climate/ap6/work_plan.html 25 http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/08/20050808-6.html . Text of U.S. Energy Policy Act of 2005: http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=109_cong_public_laws&docid=f:publ058.109.pdf 26 The energy bill will provide up to $3,400 per vehicle in tax credits to consumers for purchase of these cars, based on their fuel savings potential. 27 U.S. Energy Bill, 2005, page 252 28 U.S. Climate Change Technology Program’s “draft Strategic Plan” http://www.climatetechnology.gov/stratplan/draft/index.htm 29 U.S. Climate Change Technology Program’s “draft Strategic Plan” page 10-3 30 http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/01/print/20060131-10.html 31 http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/roadmap_manufacturing_hydrogen_economy.pdf 32 See: Slide Presentation of the “Green Paper A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy” http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/energy/green-paper-energy/doc/2006_03_08_gp_slide_presentation_en.pdf 33 http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/energy/efficiency/doc/2005_06_green_paper_book_en.pdf 34 http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/energy/green-paper-energy/doc/2006_03_08_gp_document_en.pdf 35 European Council 23/24 March 2006, Presidency Conclusions. http://www.eu2006.at/en/News/Council_Conclusions/2403Europe anCouncil.pdf 36 European Council 23/24 March 2006, Presidency Conclusions, n. 44 37 European Council 23/24 March 2006, Presidency Conclusions, n. 45 38 http://europa.eu.int/comm/energy_transport/en/lpi_lv_en1.html 39 In 2001, the “Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions on alternative fuels for road transportation and on a set of measures to promote the use of biofuels” suggested a development scenario for 2020 achieving 20% substitution of petrol and diesel. Among the identified fuels, a possible market share of 5% by 2020 for hydrogen was suggested (http://europa.eu.int/eur-lex/en/com/pdf/2001/en_501PC0547_01.pdf). 40 https://www.hfpeurope.org 41 The proposed Joint Technology Initiative (JTI) is a new way of realising public-private research partnerships at European level. Bringing public and private interests together into a new implementation structure will ensure that the jointly defined research programme will better match industry’s needs and expectations. Purpose: To define and execute a target-oriented European programme of industrial research, technological development and demonstration on hydrogen and fuel cells in the most efficient manner, to prepare for the deployment of these technologies. Goals: To deliver robust hydrogen and fuel cell technologies developed to the point of commercial take-off in 2015, with a view to large-scale mass market rollout by 2020, for transport applications; and to provide the technology base to initiate market growth for stationary fuel cell domestic and commercial CHP) and portable applications from 2010-2015. Scope: European fuel cell development programme; Sustainable hydrogen supply programme; European "lighthouse" demonstration programme; Market framework preparatory activities. Budget: Subject to on-going negotiations over EU budgets, it might be possible for the EC to contribute around 80-100 M€/year to the 250 M€/year public funding identified as being required by the European hydrogen and fuel cell technology platform. This, and any other public sources of funding that can be leveraged, should at least be matched by private investments in JTI projects. Duration: Initially for 7 years (the duration of the EU 7th RTD Framework Programme), but with the strong expectation that this period will be extended


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further, subject to satisfactory performance. Legal Structure: Joint venture, between the Community (represented by the European Commission) and industry, established on the basis of Article 171 of the EC Treaty (i.e. a new legal entity will be created). Timetable: It is expected that the JTI will be formally launched in autumn 2006, ready to commence activities in January 2007 (the start of FP7). 42 Strategic Research Agenda (July 2005) https://www.hfpeurope.org/uploads/677/686/HFP-SRA004_V9-2004_SRA-report-final_22JUL2005.pdf 43 Deployment Strategy (August 2005) https://www.hfpeurope.org/uploads/677/687/HFP_DS_Report_AUG2005.pdf 44 Deployment Strategy Progress Report 2005 (October 2005) https://www.hfpeurope.org/uploads/677/1349/DS_Progress_Report _2005_final.pdf 45 Strategic Research Agenda, page 2 46 Strategic Research Agenda, page 9 47 Strategic Research Agenda, page 4 48 Strategic Research Agenda page 112 49 Deployment Strategy, page 7 50 Deployment Strategy, page 15 51 The Contact Group on Alternative Fuels (AFCG) concluded in it’s report that a slower mass market introduction of hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles can be expected than anticipated by the EC in 2001 when the 5% target for EU motor fuel substitution in 2020 was set. However there is a big gap between the market potential of the markets mentioned above and the goal of ensuring a visible contribution of hydrogen ad fuel cell vehicles to the total alternative fuel substitution target of the EC of 20%. Therefore the target of having “hydrogen cars in the showroom” in 2020 has been translated into a EU-wide availability of both a significant choice of hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles and an area wide hydrogen-filling infrastructure. Based on this ambition an upper range of 5% of all new vehicles sales being hydrogen fuelled has been assumed as the best case for the 2020 scenario. Even if this scenario might be too optimistic a fleet of several 100,000 hydrogen cars is needed to ensure that until 2020 at least a few thousand hydrogen filling stations will be built as basic infrastructure in larger clusters around the biggest European cities. Hence for a 2020 snapshot a range of 360,000 up to 1,825,000 vehicles sold per year being hydrogen-fuelled vehicles has been adopted from the HyWays Project (Deployment Strategy, page 27). 52 Deployment Strategy, pages 26-28 53 Deployment Strategy, pages 46-47 54 Deployment Strategy Progress Report 2005, page 10 55 Deployment Strategy Progress Report 2005, pages 3-11 56 http://fccj.jp/index12.html 57 Policy Speech by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to the 154th Diet Session. 4 February 2004. http://www.kantei.go.jp/foreign/koizumispeech/2002/02/04sisei_e.html 58 See: IPHE SC Meeting, Vancouver, Canada, March 2006. T. Miygawa presentation “Japan’s Approach to Commercialization of Fuel Cell/Hydrogen Technology” http://www.iphe.net/IPHErestrictedarea/5th%20IPHE%20SC%20mtg/Final%20Presentations/IPHE/TUES %20AM/IPHEJapan.pdf 59 http://www.jhfc.jp/e/index.html 60 http://www.industry.gov.au/content/itrinternet/cmscontent.cfm?objectID=A81760A0-65BF-4956-B084F5B52EEF64DA&CFID =23031 702& CFTOKEN=26723621 61 See: IPHE SC Meeting, Vancouver, Canada, March 2006. “Canada Member Statement” http://www.iphe.net/IPHErestrictedarea/5th %20IPHE%20SC%20mtg/Final%20Presentations/IPHE/TUES%20AM/CanadaCountry %20StatementFINAL.pdf 62 See: IPHE SC Meeting, Vancouver, Canada, March 2006. “France Member Statement” http://www.iphe.net/IPHErestrictedarea/5th %20IPHE%20SC%20mtg/Final%20Presentations/IPHE/TUES%20AM/Vancouver% 202006%20IPHE%20France%20presentation.pdf 63 See: IPHE SC Meeting, Vancouver, Canada, March 2006. H. Geipel, N. Parker presentation “German Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Techno- logy Update” http://www.iphe.net/IPHErestrictedarea/5th%20IPHE%20SC%20mtg/Final%20Presentations/IPHE/TUES%20AM/IPHE _German.pdf 64 http://www.miur.it/UserFiles/1027.pdf http://www.miur.it/0006Menu_C/0012Docume/0015Atti_M/2943FISR_F_cf3.htm 65 HYFORUM 2004, Beijing, China. May 2004. C. Clini presentation “Hydrogen Economy and Renewable Economy to Address Global Environmental Challenges” 66 The bill “Reform and rearrangement of the energy sector” intend: 1) Accelerate the processes of market liberalisation, 2) Diversify energy sources, 3) Further clarify the responsibilities of the regions and the central Government and 4) Secure timely investment in energy related infrastructure. See: http://www.camera.it/_dati/leg14/lavori/stampati/pdf/14PDL0060580.pdf 67 See “Reform and rearrangement of the energy sector” bill, Art 1 point 71. And the recent: ” DECRETO 24 ottobre 2005, Direttive per la regolamentazione dell'emissione dei certificati verdi alle produzioni di energia di cui all'articolo 1, comma 71, della legge 23 agosto 2004, n. 239” http://gazzette.comune.jesi.an.it/2005/265/6.htm . 68 http://www.crfproject-ita.org 69 http://www.unionepetrolifera.it/PubblicazioniDocumenti/previsioni%20di%20domanda%20energetica%20e%20petrolifera%20italiana %202006-2020.pdf 70 See: IPHE SC Meeting, Vancouver, Canada, March 2006. Young-Sam Kim presentation “Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Activities in Korea” http://www.iphe.net/IPHErestrictedarea/5th%20IPHE%20SC%20mtg/Final%20Presentations/IPHE/TUES%20AM/IPHKorea.pdf 71 July 2002: Powering Future Vehicles – The Government Strategy; November 2002: The Technology Roadmap; February 2003: Review of UK Fuel Cell Commercial Potential; February 2003: Energy White Paper; May 2003: the Fuel Cell Vision, the First Steps; May 2003: Fuel Cells UK; September 2003: the Fuel Cell Vision Paper. 72 http://www.fuelcellsuk.org/uk-roadmap.htm 73 http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/sepn/hydrogen.shtml 74 See: IPHE SC Meeting, Kyoto, Japan, September 2006. Brazil Member Statement “Current status of hydrogen energy development in Brazil” http://www.iphe.net/IPHErestrictedarea/Steeringkyoto/9-14-day1/Brazil%20-%204th%20SC%20Meeting%20-%20Kyoto.pdf 75 See: IPHE Implementation-Liaison Committee Meeting, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, March 2005. C. Jiachang presentation “Hydrogen Energy Vision and Technology Roadmap Report for China” http://www.iphe.net/IPHErestrictedarea/Rio%20Dejaneiro%20ILC/ilc%20rio %20pdfs/22_03%20-%20Tuesday/Afternoon/13h30%20-%20China.pdf 76 See: IPHE SC Meeting, Kyoto, Japan, September 2006. S.K. Chopra “Presentation on Indian National Hydrogen Energy Programme” http://www.iphe.net/IPHErestrictedarea/Steeringkyoto/9-15-day2/India%20-%20Presentation%20-%20IPHE%20-%20Kyoto -Japan-%2012092005-Final.pdf 77 See: UNU Conference on Hydrogen Fuel Cells and Alternatives in the Transport Sector: Issues for Developing Countries UNU-INTECH, Maastricht, NL November 2005. S.K. Chopra presentation “Toward Hydrogen Energy Economy in India” http://www.intech. unu.edu/events/workshops/hfc05/chopra_ppt.pdf 78 See: WEC 19th World Energy Congress “Delivering Sustainability: Challenges and Opportunities for the Energy Industry”, Sydney, Australia, September 2004. M.V. Romeri paper “Vehicles as a new power-generation source. Hydrogen a possible bridge between


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mobility and distributed generation (CHP)” http://www.worldenergy.org/wecgeis/congress/papers/romeriv0904.pdf: DS18: http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/congress/eventdetail.asp?event=48 ; 79 See: “Hydrogen: a new possible bridge between mobility and distributed generation (CHP)”, paragraph 4. 80 The 2004 data: United States: “Hydrogen, Fuel Cells & Infrastructure Technologies Program – Multy-year Research, Development and Demonstration Plan (draft 2003)”. June 2003. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). http://www.eere.energy.gov /hydrogenandfuelcells/mypp/ (seen in April 2004). “The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs”. 2004 Washington D.C. Committee on Alternatives and Strategies for Future Hydrogen Production and Use, National Research Council, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences. National Research Council. National Academy of Engineering http://books.nap.edu/catalog/10922.html?onpi_newsdoc02042004 . “Hydrogen Posture Plan, An Integrated Research, Development, and Demonstration Plan”. February 2004. Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOE. http://www.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuel cells/pdfs/hydrogen_posture_plan.pdf . Europe: “Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell A vision of our future”. June 2003. Brussels: EC High Level Group (HLG) on Hydrogen and Fuel Cells, EC DG Research. http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/energy/pdf/hlg_vision_report _en.pdf . Presentation: “HyNet On the way toward a European Hydrogen Roadmap” showed at the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Platform Launch Conference. January 2004. Brussels: HyNet. http://forum.europa.eu.int/irc/DownLoad/kYeFA-JEmjGIbYRHREBUJ rJvoG7HtQg9jb9JZUcx6NS59C8qL40XPNb-s0xuJSmCYxiHC2HRTX_c9VPHgDn7YeUClGZq5-CS/6SBF-9gqmf-Hl-gF5UfJigPTGCT3 DuJ o0XLH01wToy3SuDu/HyNet_HTP _Launch_Conference_21_01-04.pdf . Italy: “Previsioni di domanda energetica e petrolifera italiana 2004-2015”. March 2004. Rome: Unione Petrolifera. http://www.unionepetrolifera.it/PubblicazioniDocumenti/Previsioni%2020 04-2015.pdf (seen in April 2004). Japan: METI’ scenario: in K. Nakui presentation “Fuel Cell &Hydrogen Activities in Japan (Especially on R&D Projects at NEDO)”. IPHE - ministerial meeting. November 2003. Washington. http://www.usea.org/IPHE%20Presentations /NAKUI%20FC&H_Washington% 20031119.pdf AND T. Abe presentation “Japan’s Hydrogen Vision”. IEA - Toward Hydrogen IEA Renewable Energy Working Party Seminar. March 2003. Paris. http://www.iea.org/Textbase/work/2003/hydrogen/keynotes/Japan.pdf 81 The National Academy’s Hydrogen Economy assumes a complex scenario that involves both gasoline-fuelled hybrid electric vehicles (GHEVs) and FCVs. In that scenario GHEVs initially begin capturing USA market share from conventional vehicles, reaching 1% in 2005 and growing by 1% per year until reaching 10% market share in 2014. With the introduction of FCVs in 2015, the market share of GHEVs grows by 5% per year for the following 10 years, while that of FCVs grows by 1% annually. As FCVs continue to grow in popularity, with their market share increasing, the market shares of GHEVs peak in 2024 at 60% and then begins declining by 2% annually. After reaching a 10% market share in 2024, FCVs begin increasing their market share by 5% per year until capturing a 60% market share in 2034. In that year, GHEVs capture 40% of the market and from that point, FCVs increase their market share by 10% per year, until capture 100% of the USA market in 2038. 82 In the DOE’s Hydrogen Posture Plan (2004) the penetration rate of FCVs in LDV sales in USA is assumed to be 4% in 2018, 27% in 2020, 78% in 2030 and 100% by 2038 with linear interpolation for intervening years. 83 HyWays http://www.hyways.de/docs/Brochures_and_Flyers/HyWays_External_Document_02FEB2006.pdf 84 HyWays: A European Roadmap - Assumptions and robust results from Phase I, page 12. 85 This scenario foresees by the end of the Introduction Stage 50 thousand FCVs on the road in 2010, and by the end of the Diffusion Stage 5 million FCVs on the road in 2020 and 15 million FCVs in 2030 (see also above, endnote n. 60). 86 IEA Electricity Information (2002 edition); Paris 2002, International Energy Agency; IEA World Energy Investment Outlook 2003, Paris 2003, International Energy Agency. Electricity Generation Capacity (GW) in year 2000: USA 818.6; EU-15 584.0; Japan 258.8 (excludes autoproducers). 86 IEA Electricity Information (2002 edition); Paris 2002, International Energy Agency; IEA World Energy Investment Outlook 2003, Paris 2003, International Energy Agency. 87 For the USA’s data we have assumed these hypotheses: LDVs’ annual sales stable during the period and equal to year 2002 (17 million units); a vehicle life of 14 years (S. Davis et al. Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 23. October 2003. Oak Ridge National Laboratory). The EC figures are based on an assumed European fleet of 190 million vehicles. 88 Using the IEA forecast of world vehicles stock in 2030 (1,3 billion, in World Energy Outlook 2004, page 86) and the “scenario A” assumption (Market share of hydrogen vehicles, around 12%) of the mentioned IEA report, we found a worldwide number of FCVs of around 155 million. 89 With only few exceptions. See: W. Kempton, J. Tomic “Vehicle-to-grid power fundamentals: Calculating capacity and net revenue”, Journal of Power Source 144 (205) http://www.udel.edu/V2G/KempTom-V2G-Fundamentals05.PDF ; W. Kempton, J. Tomic “Vehicle-to-grid power implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy” Journal of Power Source 144 (205) http://www.udel.edu/V2G/KempTom-V2G-Implementation05.PDF ; Seattle Electric Vehicle to Grid Symposium, Seattle, June 2005 www.sustainableballard.org/wiki/index.php?title=Vehicle_to_Grid_ Symposium_ 2005 ; Analytical seminar presented by DOE and NREL’s Energy Analysis Office (EAO): W. Kempton, “Vehicle-to-Grid Power” Washington, September 2005. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/seminar/pdfs/2005/ea_seminar_sept_28.pdf .

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