MAGIC Climate Resilience - MAPC · Summer precipitation (in) 11 -1% to -3% -1% to 0% Streamflow (spring peak: days following Jan. 1) 85 77 to 80 72 to 74 Droughts lasting 1-3 months

MAGIC Climate Resilience Planning and Preparing for Climate Change in the MAGIC Subregion

DRAFT Source: David Mark, Maynard Life Outdoors

Working Group Meeting #3

June 2, 2016

AGENDA

• Welcome and Introductions

• Project Update

• Overview of Vulnerability Assessment

• Identification And Prioritization of

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

• Next Steps

INTRODUCTIONS

In 30 seconds:

• Name and affiliation

• Favorite part of your neighborhood

MAGIC Climate Resilience Plan

Project Background

Sources: John Boyd, OARS; Town of Hudson website; Cucurbit Farm, Thomas Cooper

Population numbers from Census 2010

A MULTI-MUNICIPAL PLAN

Source: US Census 2010

PLANNING AND PROJECT STRUCTURE

The action plan will be organized around MA

and MAPC Climate Change Adaptation work*:

1. Built Environment and Key Infrastructure

2. Natural Resources and Habitat

3. Human Health and Welfare

4. Local Economy and Government

The plan will have two parts

– Part 1: Vulnerability Assessment

– Part 2: Adaptation and Mitigation Action Plan

*Coastal Zone - not applied to MAGIC

PROJECT OUTCOMES

In addition, the plan also seeks to bring about:

• Stronger networks of climate resilience stakeholders and

increased social capital by:

• Fostering local dialogue on climate risks and strategies among

MAGIC’s citizens, government officials and staff;

• Creating or strengthening connections between public and

private actors;

• Strengthening of social networks essential to climate

preparedness.

*Coastal Zone - not applied to MAGIC


Check back on

Survey Results


SURVEY RESULTS

• Survey closed in April

• As of March: Total of 275 respondents (+86)

• Majority of respondents (>90%) live in MAGIC

– 14% also work and 19% volunteer in MAGIC

• At least one response from each municipality (+2)

• Majority (65%) of respondents feel it is Very Urgent that we respond to and prepare for climate change

SURVEY RESULTS: CONCERNS

74.0%

41.0%

35.0% 32.0%

12.0%

Ecological systems

Public Health Effects on Agriculture

Economy and Built Environment

Other

Concerns about climate change impacts n=257

57%

55%

52%

43%

37%

29%

Invasive species/diseases

Issues with Energy Supply.

Property Damage (Winter)

Flooding on Roads/Paths

Health problems (Vector)

Impacts to Surface Water

Climate related impacts experienced in the past or to-date n=247

SURVEY RESULTS: EXPERIENCES

Overview and Discussion of Vulnerability Assessment

Focus on Health and

Local Economy &

Government


WHAT'S HAPPENING? (IMPACTS)

Parameter Current Conditions

(1961-1990)

Predicted Range

by 2050

Predicted Range

by 2100

Annual temperature (°F) 46 50 to 51 51 to 56

Winter temperature (°F) 23 25 to 28 27 to 33

Summer temperature (°F) 68 72 to 73 72 to 78

Annual sea surface temp. (°F) 53 56 61

Annual precipitation (in.) 41 5% to 8% 7% to 14%

Winter precipitation (in.) 8 6% to 16% 12% to 30%

Summer precipitation (in) 11 -1% to -3% -1% to 0%

Streamflow (spring peak:

days following Jan. 1) 85 77 to 80 72 to 74

Droughts lasting 1-3 months

(#/30 yrs) 13 18 to 20 16 to 23

Sea-level rise -- 1 to 1.5 feet 2 to 6 feet

CLIMATE CHANGE + HEALTH

Climate change is one of many determinants of health

CLIMATE CHANGE: EXTREME WEATHER

Increased Flooding and Wildfires, affects

• Water Contamination

• Property Loss

• Infrastructure Damage

Health Impacts include

• Water borne illnesses

• Injury and death

CLIMATE CHANGE: HIGHER TEMPS

Higher Temperatures, affects

• More frequent extreme heat days

• Longer duration extremes

• Heat Island effects

Health Impacts include

• Dehydration

• Heat stress and stroke

• Cardiovascular illness exacerbation

• Respiratory illness exacerbation

• Mental health issues

33

22

17 14 13

11 9

7 6 3

0 0 0 0 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Age-adjusted rate per 10,000 people Massachusetts Center for Health Information and Analysis (CHIA),

2012

PUBLIC HEALTH – CURRENT ISSUES

Heat Stress Emergency Department Visits*

Source: MA EPHT, MDPH

*0 does not mean none; Data

based on one year reporting and

annual averages are being

pursued to increase stability of

data


North Quadrant 22.37 (15.4, 29.34)

East Quadrant 20.61 (16.23, 25)

South Quadrant 24.36 (16.24, 32.48)

West Quadrant 25.84 (17.74, 33.93)

MAGIC Subregion 22.18 (19.15, 25.22)

Massachusetts 45.49 (44.79, 46.19)

Hypertension Hypertension Hospitalizations 2008-2012*

North Quadrant 54.04 (43.35, 64.74)

East Quadrant 66.67 (57.78, 75.56)

South Quadrant 49.23 (37.8, 60.67)

West Quadrant 89.71 (74.04, 105.38)

MAGIC Subregion 64.49 (58.89, 70.08)

Massachusetts 151.92 (150.56, 153.27)

Asthma Hospitalizations 2008-2012*

Source: MassCHIP, MDPH *Age Adjusted Rate per 100,000 (95% CI)

North Quadrant 714.96 (672.33, 757.58)

East Quadrant 561.34 (532.08, 590.61)

South Quadrant 717.84 (665.12, 770.56)

West Quadrant 644.13 (601.42, 686.85)

MAGIC Subregion 635.95 (616.54, 655.36)

Massachusetts 837.85 (834.74, 840.95)

Mental Health Hospitalizations 2008-2012*

North Quadrant 57.95 (46.42, 69.48)

East Quadrant 45.46 (38.57, 52.35)

South Quadrant 87.4 (69.94, 104.86)

West Quadrant 83.66 (69.05, 98.28)

MAGIC Subregion 59.85 (54.56, 65.13)

Massachusetts 135.03 (133.81, 136.26)

Diabetes Hospitalizations 2008-2012*

Source: MassCHIP, MDPH *Age Adjusted Rate per 100,000 (95% CI)


CLIMATE CHANGE: VECTOR-BORNE

DISEASES Changes in precipitation and temperature

affect

• Expansion of geographical range

• Changes in reproductive cycle

• Changes in behavior

Health Impacts include increased cases of

disease such as:

• Lyme disease

• West Nile Virus

• Eastern Equine Encephalitis

PUBLIC HEALTH – CURRENT ISSUES Incidence Rates (per 100,000 pop) for confirmed Lyme Disease 2007 -2011

Lyme Disease in Massachusetts: A Report Issued by the Special Commission to Conduct an Investigation and Study of the Incidence and Impacts of Lyme Disease. 2013.

PUBLIC HEALTH – CURRENT ISSUES Eastern Equine Encephalitis Human Cases by County by 3-year periods

CLIMATE CHANGE: AIR QUALITY

Changes in air quality could come from

• Ground level air pollutants like ozone

• Changes in Pollen levels

• Wildfires

Health Impacts include:

• Cardiovascular illness exacerbation

• Respiratory illness exacerbation

• Increased allergy-related illnesses


PUBLIC HEALTH – HEALTH BEHAVIORS Health Behavior or Condition Status

AVG Prevalence of adult eating 5 or more

fruits and vegetables (CY2005, 2007, 2009)

High (except

Hudson, Lincoln)

AVG Prevalence of hypertension among

adults (CY2005, 2007, 2009)

Low (except

Bedford, Concord,

Lexington, Lincoln)

AVG Prevalence of overweight or obese

among adults (CY2009 -2011)

Low (except

Bedford, Hudson,

Littleton)

AVG Prevalence of obesity among adults (CY2008 - 2010)

Low (except

Hudson, Littleton)

AVG Prevalence of lack of physical activity

among adults (CY2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009)

Low (except Acton,

Hudson, Littleton)

Source: All data using quintiles was calculated using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), which is an annual statewide survey of Massachusetts residents. PWTF Appendix A1,

October 2013.

HEALTH AND WELFARE – KEY POINTS

• Effects will exacerbate health issues with

existing health conditions

• New health issues will emerge (e.g., vector-

borne)

• On average, the MAGIC Subregion is relatively

more healthy than the state both in acute and

chronic health issues

• Prevention and surveillance are likely the key

activities to maintain assets and resiliency

HEALTH AND WELFARE -

VULNERABILITY

Given this information, what is your

impression of the MAGIC Subregion’s

Vulnerability to climate change impacts?

LOCAL ECONOMY AND GOV’T

LOCAL ECONOMY – KEY POINTS

• The biggest parts of the economy are not likely

to be directly impacted

• Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting, and

Construction and other outdoor industries and

its employees are likely to be impacted most

• The Health Care industry in MAGIC will be

important in addressing local health needs,

especially as these increase with population

change and climate change health impacts.

MAGIC REGIONAL ECONOMY

27%

20%

13%

9%

8%

7%

4%

3% 3%

3%

1% 1% 1% INDUSTRIES BY EMPLOYMENT

Professional and Business Services

Education and Health Services

Trade, Transportation and Utilities

Manufacturing

Leisure and Hospitality

Durable Goods Manufacturing

Construction

Information

Other Services

Financial Activities

Public Administration

Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing

Natural Resources and Mining

Source: EOLWD ES-202

TOP EMPLOYMENT SECTORS

• Professional and Business Services

27% | 28,922 employees

• Education and Health Services

20% | 20,956

• Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

13% | 12,465


LOCAL ECONOMY

BOSTON METRO EMPLOYMENT

CHANGES 2001-2013

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

an

ge

in

Wa

ge

s

20

01

-20

13

Percent Change in Jobs 2001-2013 Source: EOLWD ES-202

VULNERABILITIES OF THE ECONOMY

Natural Resource Dependent Industries

• Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting

• .5% of businesses | .6% of employees

• Small, but culturally important part of the Economy

• Industry threatened by changes in precipitation, heat,

pest migration

• Employees threatened by heat, increased pesticide

application, potential loss of work if business

interruption or related health issues.



Outdoor Industries

• Construction

• 7 % of businesses | 4% of employees

• Employees vulnerable to heat impacts from outdoor

work, and potential loss of work if business

interruption or related health issues from heat, sun

exposure, vector-borne diseases.

• Other industries with outdoor workers include

agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting; landscaping.



Health Care Industries

• Health Services

• 12% of businesses | 6% of employees

• Health Care Providers in all Towns

• Lexington, Concord, Sudbury, Bedford, Acton employing the most

• Stow, Boxborough, Bolton, Carlisle employing the fewest

• Health care businesses/employees important for meeting current and future health care needs

• Will need to respond to increased demands of a population that is aging, and will experience health issues from climate change.


LOCAL ECONOMY

• Map

LOCAL ECONOMY – KEY POINTS

• The biggest parts of the economy are not likely to be directly impacted

• Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting, and Construction and other outdoor industries and its employees are likely to be impacted most

• The Health Care industry in MAGIC will be important in addressing local health needs, especially as these increase with population change and climate change health impacts.

LOCAL ECONOMY AND GOV’T -

VULNERABILITY

Given this information, what is your

impression of the MAGIC Subregion’s

Vulnerability to climate change impacts?

Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

Existing and Planned

Measures


QUESTIONS FOR GROUP(S)

What does each municipality or set of

municipalities have in place that address:

– Mitigation?

– Adaptation?

Related to the following sectors: 1. Built Environment and Key Infrastructure

2. Natural Resources and Habitat

3. Human Health and Welfare

4. Local Economy and Government

EXISTING AND PLANNED MITIGATION

AND ADAPTATIONS TABLE

Full circle: Completed

Boston Braintree Brookline CambridgeChelsea Everett Malden Melrose Quincy Revere Somerville Winthrop

Staffing & Information

Energy Committee

Municipal Energy Staff

Municipal Energy/Climate Website

Climate

Climate Action Plan

GHG Inventory

Vulnerability Assessment

Stormwater/Flood Planning

Hazard Mitigation Plan

Funding for Resiliency (CCERI) Project

Low Impact Development

Eco Districts

Climate-Related Tree Initiatives

Energy

Green Community

Municipal Energy Use Baseline

MAPC Local Energy Action Plan (LEAP)

LED Streetlight Retrofit

Municipal Building Retrofit

Residential Efficiency Program/Promotion

Empty circle: In progress project or actively planning, for Resiliency : TA Funding, for Green Communities and Solarize : Application submitted.

Metro Mayors Coalition Climate and Energy InitiativesNote: This spreadsheet was last updated in April 2015 and is currently under

revision. The next version will reflect municipal work done since May 2015 and will

include the City of Newton, which joined the MMC in Spring 2015.

EXISTING AND PLANNED MITIGATION

AND ADAPTATIONS TABLE

MAGIC Subregion Existing and Planned Mitigation and Adaptations Table

n Full Square: In place o Empty Square: In progress project or actively planning for

MAGIC Municipalities Acton Bedford Bolton Boxborough Carlisle Concord Hudson Lexington Lincoln Littleton Maynard Stow Sudbury

Built Environment

Public Transport

Bike/Pedestrian Plan

Complete Streets Policy

Building Code Incentives to Build above BFE

Stormwater/Flood Planning

Stretch Code

GHG Inventory

Funding for Resiliency (CCERI) Project

Low Impact Development

Residential or Commercial Rainwater Harvesting

Green Community

MAPC Local Energy Action Plan (LEAP)

Residential Efficiency Program/Promotion

Residential Weather/Floodproofing

Municipal Building Retrofit

Municipal Renewable Energy

Natural Resources

Open Space and Recreation Plan

Streamflow Monitoring/Controals

GROUPS FOR DISCUSSION

Eastern

Quadrant

Northern

Quadrant

Western

Quadrant Southern

Quadrant


Next Steps


NEXT STEPS

• Follow up on identified additional data

• Draft Working Document at end of June

• Explore model of riverine flooding

• Advance into Phase II

– TA to Support Subregional and Municipal

Implementation

– Public Engagement

– Application of flooding model


Thank You!


Documents

MAGIC Climate Resilience - MAPC · Summer precipitation (in) 11 -1% to -3% -1% to 0% Streamflow (spring peak: days following Jan. 1) 85 77 to 80 72 to 74 Droughts lasting 1-3 months