17
KINDLY REFER TO THE LAST PAGE OF THIS PUBLICATION FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 17 June 2011 | Initiating Coverage Malaysian Bulk Carriers BUY Lifting Anchor and Unfurling the Sails Target Price (TP): RM2.82 The shipping sector is expected to continue to struggle for the rest of 2011, given vessel oversupply conditions and deteriorating demand. However, a sector rebound is expected in 2012 on the back of increasing voyage distance, port congestion, rising charter and dry bulk rates. We are calling a BUY on Malaysian Bulk Carrier with a target price of RM2.82, based on FY12 PER of 14.4x. The multiple is about 15% premium to regional peers. BACKGROUND Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd (Maybulk) is a major player in the Malaysian shipping sector, with operations mainly in the transport of dry bulk cargo and tankers, with a fleet of 15 vessels and plying routes in the Asia Pacific and South Asia regions. Its operations started in 1995 as a JV between Bank Pembangunan, the Ministry of finance and Kuok Group. Maybulk was listed on the Main Board of KLSE on Dec 2003. Maybulk is presently controlled by the Kuok Group (Singapore) which own 34.46%, Minister of Finance, 18.39%, followed by PPB Group, 14%. Prudent management team. Maybulk is led by a team of experienced personnel with more than 30 years experience in the shipping industry, who include: Name Background Mr. Teo Joo Kim, 70, Singaporean, Executive Chairman Appointed to the Board on 25 January 1995. Also the Chairman of Kuok (Singapore) Ltd and Pacific Carriers Ltd. More than 30 years experience in the commodity and shipping industry. Mr. Kuok Khoon Kuan, 64, CEO Joined the Board on 8 June 1995. Also the Director of Kuok (Singapore) Ltd. Has over 30 years of experience in the shipping industry. Source: Company, MIDFR RETURN STATS Price (14 June 11) RM2.30 Target Price RM2.82 Expected Share Price Return +22.55% Expected Dividend Yield +6.37% Expected Total Return +28.91% STOCK INFO KLCI 1,554.24 Bursa / Bloomberg 5077/ MBC MK Board / Sector Main/ Trading Services Syariah Compliant Yes Issued shares (mil) 1,000.00 Par Value (RM) 0.25 Market cap. (RM’m) 2,300.00 Price over NA 1.3x 52-wk price Range RM2.23–RM3.03 Beta (against KLCI) 0.83 3-mth Avg Daily Vol 0.3m 3-mth Avg Daily Value RM0.86m Major Shareholders Kuok (Singapore) 34.46% Minister of Finance 18.39%

Malaysian Bulk Carriers BUYMalaysian shipping sector, with operations mainly in the transport of dry bulk cargo and tankers, with a fleet of 15 vessels and plying routes in the Asia

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  • KINDLY REFER TO THE LAST PAGE OF THIS PUBLICATION FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

    17 June 2011 | Initiating Coverage

    Malaysian Bulk Carriers BUY Lifting Anchor and Unfurling the Sails Target Price (TP): RM2.82

    The shipping sector is expected to continue to struggle for the

    rest of 2011, given vessel oversupply conditions and

    deteriorating demand. However, a sector rebound is expected

    in 2012 on the back of increasing voyage distance, port

    congestion, rising charter and dry bulk rates. We are calling a

    BUY on Malaysian Bulk Carrier with a target price of RM2.82,

    based on FY12 PER of 14.4x. The multiple is about 15%

    premium to regional peers.

    BACKGROUND Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd (Maybulk) is a major player in the

    Malaysian shipping sector, with operations mainly in the transport

    of dry bulk cargo and tankers, with a fleet of 15 vessels and plying

    routes in the Asia Pacific and South Asia regions. Its operations

    started in 1995 as a JV between Bank Pembangunan, the Ministry

    of finance and Kuok Group. Maybulk was listed on the Main Board

    of KLSE on Dec 2003. Maybulk is presently controlled by the Kuok

    Group (Singapore) which own 34.46%, Minister of Finance,

    18.39%, followed by PPB Group, 14%.

    Prudent management team. Maybulk is led by a team of

    experienced personnel with more than 30 years experience in the

    shipping industry, who include:

    Name Background

    Mr. Teo Joo Kim, 70, Singaporean, Executive Chairman

    • Appointed to the Board on 25 January 1995.

    • Also the Chairman of Kuok (Singapore) Ltd and Pacific Carriers Ltd.

    • More than 30 years experience in the commodity and shipping industry.

    Mr. Kuok Khoon Kuan, 64, CEO

    • Joined the Board on 8 June 1995.

    • Also the Director of Kuok (Singapore) Ltd.

    • Has over 30 years of experience in the shipping industry.

    Source: Company, MIDFR

    RETURN STATS

    Price (14 June 11) RM2.30

    Target Price RM2.82

    Expected Share Price Return

    +22.55%

    Expected Dividend Yield +6.37%

    Expected Total Return +28.91%

    STOCK INFO

    KLCI 1,554.24

    Bursa / Bloomberg 5077/

    MBC MK

    Board / Sector Main/ Trading

    Services

    Syariah Compliant Yes

    Issued shares (mil) 1,000.00

    Par Value (RM) 0.25

    Market cap. (RM’m) 2,300.00

    Price over NA 1.3x

    52-wk price Range RM2.23–RM3.03

    Beta (against KLCI) 0.83

    3-mth Avg Daily Vol 0.3m

    3-mth Avg Daily Value RM0.86m

    Major Shareholders

    Kuok (Singapore) 34.46%

    Minister of Finance 18.39%

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    2

    Corporate Milestones:

    Year Major Events

    2010 Voted second place for “Best Mid-Cap” company in FinanceAsia’s 10th

    annual poll of Asia top companies.

    2008 Received KPMG Shareholder Value Award 2007- Sectoral Winner in Infrastructure.

    2006 Won the 2006 Lloyd’s List Maritime Asia “Bulk Operator Category” award.

    2005

    The Group received the following awards:-

    1) KPMG Shareholder Value Award 2004 – Sectoral Winner in Infrastructure.

    2) KPMG Shareholder Value Award 2004 – overall second in the list of top 100 listed companies on Bursa Malaysia in terms of value creation for its shareholders.

    3) “Ship of the Year” award as presented by Lloyd’s Maritime Asia, for vessel Alam Padu.

    Source: Company, MIDFR

    Operations. Maybulk operates in three segments: 1) Bulk Carriers - ranging from 23,000DWT (Handysize) to

    87,000DWT (Post- Panamaxes), 2) Tankers- ranging from 45,500DWT to 47,000DWT, and 3) Ship Management. Its

    bulk carriers are involved in the transportation of dry cargoes comprising major bulks, such as iron ore, coal (steaming

    and coking coals), grains and minor bulks, e.g. sugar, coke and fertilizers. Apart from its own vessels, the company

    also charters-in third party vessels to service contracts of affreightment commitments. The tankers are engaged

    primarily in the seaborne transportation of clean petroleum products, chemicals and vegetable oils. Meanwhile, its ship

    management involves marine operations, technical management of vessels, ship supplies and crewing, which are

    undertaken by its wholly-owned subsidiary PSM Perkapalan Sdn Bhd (PPSB).

    As of February 28, 2011, Maybulk has a fleet of 15 ships, of which 11 are bulk carriers and 4 are product tankers. The

    average age of Maybulk’s fleet is 9 years (as compared to average global drybulk fleet of 20 years). Most of its 11 bulk

    carriers are modern Panamax bulk carriers aged under 5 years old (see Appendix I for fleet information). Given its

    relatively young age profile, Maybulk can command a premium on its charter rates. Maybulk currently holds 2%

    market share of the global drybulk shipping.

    Figure 1: MARKET SHARES OF REGIONAL PEERS

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    Source: Bloomberg, MIDFR

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    3

    An international drybulk shipping group. Drybulk cargo accounted for 87% of the company’s FY10 sales and 78%

    of its operating profit, followed by the tanker business segment’s share of 11%. This is consistent with the Group’s

    fleet profile which mostly consists of drybulk carriers (appox. 80% of total DWT capacity). Other businesses which

    comprise of ship brokerage and management services, accounted for the remaining 2% of total revenue but 21% of

    EBIT.

    Figure 2: FY10 REVENUE BY SEGMENT Figure 3: FY10 EBIT BY SEGMENT

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    Source: Company, MIDFR Source: Company, MIDFR

    Maybulk’s forays into OSVs. In Dec 08, Maybulk acquired 21.2% stake in PACC Offshore Services Holdings

    (POSH), for US$221m or USD6.50/ share and in the meantime disposed its offshore accommodation vessel, PAC

    Bintan to POSH for USD24m. The remaining amount of USD197m was settled by cash. POSH was incorporated in

    March 2006 and was previously a wholly-owned subsidiary of PCL. The company mainly provides offshore marine

    support services for the oil and gas industry. POSH owns and operates more than 50 offshore support vessels (OSVs)

    in the region presently (see Appendix II for company details). The international offshore support vessel sector has

    enjoyed large-scale growth since year 2000 to 2008; however, it had been soften for the recent years as charter rates

    have been decreasing due to increased supply of vessels. In Maybulk’s recent announced 1QFY11 results, POSH

    posted a 57% decline in its profits caused by the weak offshore services market, and this has in turn resulted in a

    RM2.8m fall in its contribution to the group. We expect the future prospects for the offshore support vessel sector to

    be positive in the near- term, although current newbuilding orders may continue to place a downward pressure on day

    rates in the near future. However, we think the continued exploration and development of new and regenerated

    offshore oil and gas discoveries will maintain interest in the offshore support sector well into the future.

    Figure 4: Profits attributed by associate- POSH

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11

    RM'000

    Source: Company, MIDFR

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    4

    FINANCIAL/ EARNINGS REVIEW

    Maybulk’s FY10 net profit was 6% below street consensus, registering 2% drop, from RM247.8m in FY09 to

    RM242.7m in FY10. The unfavourable full year results was mainly dragged down by the slimmer bottomline in

    4QFY10, which was fired up by weaker revenue in bulk segment as well as lower gain from its associate- POSH. The

    said quarter posted only RM67.7m, a 22.8% slump, compared to RM88.4m in FY09. However, FY10 topline remained

    solid at RM404.2m (+33.1%yoy) versus RM303.7m in FY09 and full-year EBIT rose 139% to RM174.8m (versus

    RM73.3m a year ago) as bulk earnings recovered on higher spot rates. We are projecting lower earnings in FY11 vis-

    à-vis the previous year figure as the lucrative three-year Tenaga COA that was fixed at very high rates in June 2008

    will expire in mid-2011. The COA was fixed at an estimated USD60,000-90,000/day, against MBC’s average of

    USD25,993/day in 2010, and may have absorbed one panamax-equivalent ship for an entire year. Assuming a

    downward re-pricing of the Tenaga COA from July onwards to USD16,000/day, and expiry of other long-term charters

    this year, we forecast a 18-20% decline in the average rate, hence topline to be adversely hit by 13%.

    Figure 5: REVENUE & PROFIT TREND

    Source: Company, MIDFR

    Bulk was up, but tanker and offshore soften in FY10. Bulk shipping segment soared 44.3% to RM349m in FY10 as

    earnings days ascended 14% due to more vessel capacity, and average rates was up 36% on the back of improved

    spot market. Unfortunately, FY10 saw tanker business hit the dirt to just RM46m (-16% yoy) compared to RM54m in

    FY09, dragged by 25% dip in average rates. Meanwhile, contribution from its associate- POSH also dwindled 78% yoy

    as a result of weaker offshore rates and lower vessel utilization.

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F

    Period

    RM

    '000

    Revenue Profit

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    Figure 6: OPERATING PROFIT AND AVERAGE TCE FOR BULK

    Source: Company, MIDFR

    Figure 7: OPERATING PROFIT AND AVERAGE TCE FOR TANKER

    Source: Company, MIDFR

    More vessel disposals. On 1st November 2010, Maybulk disposed its Alam Selamat, an 18-year old handymax ship

    for USD15.9m, translating RM22.8m in disposal gains. Followed by, Alam Bitara, a 12-year old MR tanker sold on 15th

    February 2011 for USD19m due to vessel quality issues, netting a RM6m gain (refer to Appendix I for fleet

    information). However, we expect Maybulk to pursue more vessel acquisitions than disposals moving forward as

    vessel prices fall.

    Latest quarterly/ interim performance. Maybulk announced its 1QFY11 results last month. Stripping away

    exceptional items amounting to RM7.2m, 1QFY11 net profit dropped 14% due to 26% slumped in revenue. The drop

    was mainly caused by the fall in hire rates for both the dry bulk fleet and product tankers. The outlook for tanker

    market remains unfavourable, resulting in 21% lower average hire rate although hire days increased by 6% to 280

    days. On top of that, Maybulk also posted significant decline in profit contribution from its associate- POSH (-62%yoy).

    The weak performance was due to the soft offshore services market and oversupply of capacity in the sector. For

    1QFY11, bulk hire days up 16% yoy to 1,104 days while average bulk TCE rates dipped 29% to USD21,398/day

    versus USD30,260/day a year ago. Despite higher hire days, tanker contribution continued to be weak with average

    TCE rates at USD12,610/day in 1QFY11 compared to USD15,938/day registered in 1QFY10. No dividend was

    declared for the quarter.

    -

    10,000

    20,000

    30,000

    40,000

    50,000

    60,000

    70,000

    1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11

    -

    5,000

    10,000

    15,000

    20,000

    25,000

    30,000

    35,000

    Bulk operating profit (RM) Bulk TCE (USD/day)

    (2,000)

    (1,000)

    -

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    7,000

    1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11

    -

    5,000

    10,000

    15,000

    20,000

    25,000

    Tanker operating profit (RM) Tanker TCE (USD/day)

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    6

    Figure 8: BULK TCE RATES AND HIRE DAYS

    -

    5,000

    10,000

    15,000

    20,000

    25,000

    30,000

    35,000

    1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    Bulk TCE (USD/day) Bulk (Hire Days)

    Source: Company, MIDFR

    Figure 9: TANKER TCE RATES AND HIRE DAYS

    -

    5,000

    10,000

    15,000

    20,000

    25,000

    1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    Tanker TCE (USD/day) Tanker (Hire Days)

    Source: Company, MIDFR

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    7

    PROSPECTS A tale of two different markets. We are positive on the sector in the long run but not immediate term as we expect

    recovery and the next upward cycle of the dry bulk market to occur only in 2012 and onwards. In our view, the

    strength in the sector is underpinned by strong demand for iron ore, coal, and grain. Increasing voyage distance

    coupled with port congestion will tie up even more shipping capacity, hence drive up charter rates. Dry bulk is a tale of

    two different markets, with capesize rates the only rates that have been struggling to meet operating costs. Panamax,

    supramax, and handysize rates, on the other hand, continue to exceed operating costs, but the market continues to

    look at all vessel classes as in the midst of crisis.

    China and India will be the main driver. Dry bulk trade growth in recent years has been driven mainly by Asian

    demand for the three key bulk commodities – coal, iron ore, and increasingly grain. While the booming dry bulk sector

    is underpinned by the strong global economy, its two pillars of support are the two Asian economic giants, China and

    India. Both are voracious consumers of coal and iron ore, with grain imports set to rise in China as food production

    plateaus and per capita consumption rises. We expect Chinese iron ore and steel demand to remain firm. Meanwhile,

    India’s coal needs will also become a major factor for dry bulk trade in the coming years as the country’s imports are

    expected to grow by at least 10% per annum.

    Iron ore- the main driver for dry bulk trade. The global seaborne iron ore trade has shown constant growth in the

    past decade and is expected to continue its 10% growth per annum in the years ahead due to expected growth in

    demand and production of steel in many major economies, mainly in China, accounting for 45% of world’s iron ore

    imports in 2010, followed by Japan, Korea, India, US and Europe. On the back of that, India is continuing to grow its

    internal steel production at greater pace than world average rates. With 37% of the world’s population, we believe that

    China and India has significant growth potential in its underlying steel consumption and demand.

    China power shortage may increase higher iron-ore imports. However, according to industry experts, China is

    facing acute power shortage issues. We believe this will put pressure on steel production and iron ore demand. Iron

    ore imports will likely come under moderate pressure in the near term. However, we understand that China’s domestic

    iron ore is of low quality and we believe that this may provide support for iron ore imports as high quality iron ore

    requires less electricity for steel production. This may explain why Chinese iron ore fixtures volumes have sustained,

    providing support to capsize rates. We believe that the electricity shortage issue is also likely to result in more thermal

    coal being imported.

    Coal to be the next “iron ore” for dry bulk trade? Coal has became an important resource for emerging markets

    such as China and India due to its energy needs. Both countries are experiencing an increasing level of manufacturing

    activities and growing population. In these two countries, coal is the major energy resource for the production of

    electricity at a proportion of 90% for China and 82% for India.

    The demand for coal, both thermal and coking coal, increased in 2010 in the light of growth in all major markets and

    the same is anticipated to continue to increase due to growing imports of thermal coal by China and rising demand for

    coking coal by India. According to International Energy Association (IEA), China accounts for 43% of the global coal

    consumption, followed by the US at 16% and India at 8%. Going forward, the IEA expects the total consumption in

    China to increase by 27% by 2015, and that of India to rise by 21%, while US consumption should remain stable.

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    8

    Figure 10: GLOBAL COAL CONSUMPTION AND FORECAST

    FY10

    Others

    33%

    India

    8%

    US

    16%

    China

    43%

    FY11-15F

    Others

    19%

    India

    10%US

    16%

    China

    55%

    Source: IEA data, MIDFR

    China consumes roughly 3.5bn tons of coal per year, and coal imports contribute to only a fraction of overall Chinese

    coal consumption. As such, we do not expect coal will be the next “iron ore”, as we are not expecting an increase in

    Chinese coal imports. Ongoing electricity shortages and land transportation constraints have prompted the Chinese

    government to begin focusing more on constructing coal bases along the Yangtze River, Beijing-Hangzhou Grand

    Canal, and the coast. As such, we expect that coastal and river coal trade will expand significantly, which will require

    the use of smaller dry bulk vessels such as Handymax. The government has also recently announced that the

    Yangtze River will be further dredged to allow vessels with a carrying-capacity of up to 50,000tons to be able to travel

    from Shanghai to Nanjing by 2015. Besides China, we also believe Indian coal imports will continue to grow. Indian

    demand for thermal coal and coking coal is expected to rise by at least 10% during the next few years, as Indian

    electricity consumption and steel production continues to increase.

    Longer voyages- distance effect leads to higher effective demand. Japan and China are turning to increasingly

    far flung resource regions for supplies. Longer voyages ties up more shipping capacity and command higher freight

    rates. In our view, we believe this trend is likely to continue for the reasons below:

    • Substitution effect: increasing domestic utilization of internal resources- More emerging countries, such as India

    and China, are utilizing more internal resources for domestic use. For example, India, the main supplier of iron ore

    to Asia after Australia and Brazil, has imposed an export tax to help preserve resources for domestic

    consumption. China has imposed an export tax on coal, while Indonesia is also imposing export taxes on iron ore,

    coal and palm oil for the same reason.

    • New alternative sources: Lower exports, as mentioned above, will force emerging economies to seek alternative

    sources. In the case of India’s lower iron ore exports, economies such as China will have to source ore from

    elsewhere, such as Brazil. At two to three times the distance between China and India, we expect an increase in

    the tonne-mile demand. Likewise for Indonesia, if it raises export taxes, buyers would have to look to distant

    suppliers, such as South Africa and Latin America.

    • Economic security: Diversifying risk by sourcing from a number of regions. China has done this by sourcing oil

    from Venezuela, which is logistically inefficient relative to the Middle East. Apart from geopolitical considerations,

    the diversification helps ensure a more stable supply line of resources for the economy, moderating any shocks

    from the more traditional sources.

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    Figure 11: ESTIMATED ROUND-TRIP VOYAGE TIMES

    From To No. of days

    China Korea 7 to 11 days

    Korea Australia 20-22 days

    China India 30 days + 15 to 20 days for congestion

    China Brazil 60 days + 5 to 7 days for congestion

    Source: Company data, Wikipedia, MIDFR

    BDI on the falling trend since the beginning of this year with a few spikes here and there. We do not expect an

    immediate recovery, particularly capesize and panamax rates as these two vessel classes are under the greatest

    pressure due to vessel oversupply. However, the market has continued to show that significant increases in spot

    freight rates can occur despite the vessel oversupply problem. We anticipate that freight rates will continue to be

    periodically assisted by surges in commodity demand and availability.

    Figure 12: BALTIC DRY INDEX (BDI) TREND

    Source: Bloomberg

    Strong commodity demand has continued to allow dry bulk freight rates to remain rather resilient. We continue

    to expect that global commodity demand will rebound as we head into the summer months. Chinese thermal coal

    demand is expected to remain robust and imports are expected to surge due to the significant difference between

    domestic Chinese thermal coal prices and regional prices. In addition, global grain demand is expected to remain

    strong, and Russian wheat exports will be returning in July. Prospects are less encouraging for iron ore, however, as

    major Chinese steel mills will be receiving less electricity. There is a chance, though, that demand for higher quality

    iron ore will increase, as making steel with higher quality iron ore requires the use of less electricity.

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    10

    RISKS

    • Unexpected congestion at Chinese ports, which could result in longer-than-expected rise in demand for Capesize

    vessels. A demand switch to Capesize vessels will negatively affect Maybulk as it does not own any Capesize

    vessels.

    • Strengthening of MYR vs. USD will have an adverse on Maybulk, in the form of translation lost, as its functional

    currency is USD.

    VALUATION

    Expect strong rebound in earnings in 2012: We are projecting Maybulk to post lower EPS11 of 14.7sen but

    expecting better EPS12 of 19.6sen. We are still cautious on the sector outlook for 2011, given vessel oversupply

    conditions and deteriorating demand. However, improvement is expected in 2012 onwards, on the back of 1)

    increasing voyage distance coupled with port congestion that will tie up even more shipping capacity, hence drive up

    charter rates; and 2) dry bulk freight rates to be supported by surges in commodity demand and availability. Besides,

    we are fond of Maybulk for its consistent and attractive dividend payout.

    BUY with a Target Price of RM2.82: Assigning FY12 PER of 14.4x (at 15% premium to regional peers) and FY12

    EPS of 19.6sen, our Target Price stands at RM2.82 with an upside potential of 22.55% and dividend yield of 6.37%.

    Hence, we initiate coverage on Maybulk with a BUY recommendation.

    Figure 13: PEERS COMPARISON

    P/E (x) P/ BV (x) Div. Yield (%) ROE (%) Company

    FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12

    TTA 26.0 15.2 0.5 0.5 1.4 2.0 1.4 2.0

    Precious Shipping 17.3 12.2 1.0 1.0 3.7 4.8 3.7 4.8

    STX 27.5 10.4 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.2 1.8

    Pacific Basin 12.3 12.3 0.7 0.7 3.9 4.1 3.9 4.1

    Maybulk 15.6 11.7 1.2 1.2 2.8 3.7 2.8 3.7

    Average (ex Maybulk)

    20.8 12.5 0.7 0.7 2.5 3.2 4.3 5.7

    Source: MIDFR, Bloomberg

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    11

    INVESTMENT STATISTICS

    FYE Mar FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F

    INCOME STATEMENT (all in RM’000 unless stated otherwise)

    Revenue 303.7 404.3 352.1 447.9 579.2

    EBIT 165.3 212.9 149.2 197.8 265.7

    Pretax Profit 248.3 244.4 153.1 204.2 274.9

    Net Profit 247.7 242.7 151.6 202.1 272.1

    EPS (sen) 24.4 23.8 14.7 19.6 26.4

    EPS (%) 47.1 -2.2 -38.3 33.4 34.6

    PER (x) 9.43 9.65 15.64 11.73 8.71

    Net Dividend (sen) 30.0 15.0 6.4 8.5 16.3

    Net Dividend Yield (%) 13.0 6.5 2.8 3.7 7.1

    Source: Company, Forecasts by MIDFR

    FYE Mar FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F

    BALANCE SHEET (all in RM’000 unless stated otherwise)

    ASSETS

    Non-current assets

    Fixed assets 627.5 562.4 531.4 502.2 474.6

    Associates 815.6 746.0 726.1 704.1 679.9

    Jointly controlled entities 139.9 136.9 157.2 177.4 197.7

    Total non-current assets 1,601.6 1,445.4 1,414.5 1,383.4 1,351.6

    Current assets 694.6 551.9 548.3 787.3 912.8

    Total assets 2,296.2 1,997.2 1,962.8 2,170.7 2,264.4

    EQUITIES & LIABILITIES

    Shareholders equity 1,787.1 1,685.8 1,769.1 1,880.3 1,981.0

    Long term borrowings 345.0 107.0 90.9 75.3 60.2

    Short term borrowings 7.7 43.1 43.1 43.1 43.1

    Total current liabilities 90.1 147.8 147.8 147.8 147.8

    Total non-current liabilities 345.0 107.0 90.9 75.3 60.2

    Total liabilities 435.1 254.8 132.4 223.1 208.0

    Total equity and liabilities 2,296.2 1,997.2 1,962.8 2,170.7 2,264.4

    Source: Company, Forecasts by MIDFR

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    DAILY PRICE CHART

    Zulkifli Hamzah Ng Wei Nie [email protected] 03-27721663

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    APPENDIX I MAYBULK: FLEET INFORMATION BULK VESSEL FLEET AND NEWBUILDING ORDERS

    Vessel Name Year Built Age (yrs)

    Own/ Lease

    DWT Category % owned

    Alam Senang Mar-84 26.4 Own 28,098 Handysize 100%

    Alam Gula May-85 25.2 Own 23,418 Handysize 100%

    Alam Mesra Oct-00 9.8 Own 46,644 Handymax 70%

    Alam Padu Apr-05 5.3 Own 87,052 Post Panamax 100%

    Alam Permai Jun-05 5.1 Own 87,052 Post Panamax 100%

    Alam Pesona Sep-05 4.8 Own 87,052 Post Panamax 100%

    Alam Pintar Oct-05 4.8 Own 87,052 Post Panamax 100%

    Ikan Juara Feb-06 4.4 Own 32,500 Handysize 70%

    Alam Penting Jul-05 5.0 JV owned 87,052 Post Panamax 50%

    Alam Murni Apr-03 7.3 JV owned 53,553 Handymax 50%

    Alam Manis Mar-07 3.3 Lease 55,500 Supramax n/a

    Existing Capacity 674,973

    New leases to be delivered

    To be named 2011 Lease 29,000 Handysize n/a

    To be named 2011 Lease 29,000 Handysize n/a

    To be named 2012 Lease 61,000 Supramax n/a

    To be named 2013 Lease 61,000 Supramax n/a

    New Leases 180,000

    Resale purchases

    To be named May-11 JV owned 32,500 Handysize 50% JV with Espinosa

    family

    To be named Aug-11 JV owned 32,500 Handysize 50% JV with Espinosa

    family

    New Orders 65,000

    Source: Company, MIDFR

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    TANKER FLEET

    Vessel Name Year Built Age (yrs)

    Own/ Lease

    DWT Category % owned

    Alam Budi May-01 9.3 Own 47,065 MR 100%

    Alam Bistari May-01 9.2 Own 47,065 MR 100%

    Alam Bakti 2003 7.0 Own 47,065 MR 100%

    Total 142,125

    Recently Sold

    Alam Bitara May-99 11.2 Own 45,513 MR 100% sold on Feb-11

    Source: Company, MIDFR

    LATEST VESSEL SALES

    Vessel Name Date of

    sale Year Built

    Type DWT Proceeds Cap Gain NBV Booked in

    Alam Sempurna

    Nov-08 Feb-84 Handysize

    Bulker 28,094 13.7 8.1 5.6 1Q09

    Alam Selamat Nov-10 Jul-92 Handysize

    Bulker 39,110 49.3 22.6 26.7 4Q10

    Alam Bitara Feb-11 May-99 MR Tanker 45,513 19.0 6.0 13.0 1Q11

    Source: Company, MIDFR

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    APPENDIX II POSH- Corporate Profile POSH Semco is a leading offshore marine services provider that leverages some 60 years of operating experience and specialised expertise in offshore and marine oil field services. A member of the well-established Kuok Group, POSH Semco was created through the merger of several companies with strong heritage and solid reputation as pioneers and leaders in their respective fields of operation from as early as 1951. The combined assets, experience project background and track record of these companies have enhanced POSH Semco’s leadership position in the oil and gas support industries. Our core competencies spread across five key business divisions: Deepwater services, Offshore Construction Support services, EPIC services, Harbour services, and Emergency Response services. POSH Semco operates a young and diverse fleet that is reflective of the depth and breadth of its capabilities and expertise. Our highly experienced team has been recognized by customers for their professionalism and commitment to service quality and safety. In addition, our long and impeccable track record serves as a benchmark for us to continuously raise the bar on operational excellence. Business Division POSH offers an unrivalled portfolio of services for an, all-rounded customer experience. Each of our teams possess a strong heritage of service excellence and we endeavor to go the extra mile in adding value to you in all our service deliveries, as catered to your needs. This operational culture is what sets POSH apart from the competition. Deepwater Services Division: Deepwater Services division operates a young and powerful fleet of modern offshore support vessels ranging from 100 tons to 200 tons bollard pull. The fleet services the deep sea anchor handling and supply needs of FPSOs, as well as jack-up and floater rigs. As a leader in ocean towage, our fleet trades worldwide with a track record of operations ranging from Asia Pacific to West Africa and Brazil. Offshore Construction Division: Offshore Construction division operates a fleet of modern AHT, tank and submersible barges, and accommodation vessels. The fleet operates mainly on the continental shelf of the Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean, supporting offshore construction activities, including pipe laying and installation, as well as the commissioning and maintenance of offshore platforms. Engineering, Procurement, Installation, and Commissioning (EPIC) Division: EPIC Services specializes in FPSO towage, positioning, mooring and hook-up, dry tow and float over services for positioning and installing large offshore platforms and topsides. Our track record boasts the towage and hook-up of the largest FPSOs, such as Hai Yang Shi You 117 FPSO, Kizomba A & B FPSO and Agbami FPSO. POSH is well recognized as one of the leading FPSO towing specialists. Fully backed by in-house assets and expertise, we offer one-stop turnkey service, providing a seamless range of engineering and FPSO solutions. Harbour Services Division: Operates a modern fleet of ASD harbour tugs ranging from 40 tons to 60 tons bollard pull. In addition, we operate a fleet of heavy lift crane barges of up to 1,500 tons SWL. Our fleet operates mainly in Singapore waters, but also supports shipyards in Singapore, Batam and Johor. Some of our harbour tugs also operate in Malaysia, Vietnam and the Pacific Islands. Emergency Response Division: The division offers a comprehensive array of services, equipment, and personnel capable of handling salvage and oil spill events in Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. POSH Semco’s heritage can be traced back to its days of marine salvage and rescue operations as Semco Salvage and Selco Salvage, the industry’s leading salvors since 1951. Our salvage track record and exploits are second to none and form a heritage we are proud to call our own. Our oil spill response vessel, Salvixen, is moored at the POSH Jurong Marine Base. It is fully stocked with all the necessary salvage and oil spill equipment and materials. We are able to quickly mobilize all necessary resources and manpower to respond to any emergency salvage or oil spill incident.

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    MIDF RESEARCH is part of MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Berhad (23878 - X).

    (Bank Pelaburan)

    (A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad)

    DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMER

    This report has been prepared by MIDF AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD (23878-X). It is for

    distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law.

    Readers should be fully aware that this report is for information purposes only. The opinions contained

    in this report are based on information obtained or derived from sources that we believe are reliable.

    MIDF AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD makes no representation or warranty, expressed or

    implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained therein and it should

    not be relied upon as such.

    This report is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial

    instruments. The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions

    could result in materially different results. All opinions and estimates are subject to change without

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    AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD.

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    MIDF AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK : GUIDE TO RECOMMENDATIONS

    STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS

    BUY Total return is expected to be >15% over the next 12 months.

    TRADING BUY Stock price is expected to rise by >15% within 3-months after a Trading Buy rating has been assigned due to positive newsflow.

    NEUTRAL Total return is expected to be between -15% and +15% over the next 12 months.

    SELL Total return is expected to be 15% within 3-months after a Trading Sell rating has been assigned due to negative newsflow.

    SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS

    POSITIVE The sector is expected to outperform the overall market over the next 12 months.

    NEUTRAL The sector is to perform in line with the overall market over the next 12 months.

    NEGATIVE The sector is expected to underperform the overall market over the next 12 months.

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