Management of technology and development

Exercise 1

Sanja Marinkovic

Scientific forecasting

Two approaches in development of scientific forecasting:Two approaches in development of scientific forecasting:

• Trend extrapolation from the past and application to the future

• Trend extrapolation from the past and application to the future

• Consideration of cause-effect relationships• Consideration of cause-effect relationships

Forecasting model

Input data intuition

OutputPredictions

Quantitative data

Qualitative dataTime

Probability

Output of forecasting

Quantitative dataQuantitative data

Qualitative dataQualitative data

TimeTime

ProbabilityProbability

Forecasting methods

Exploratory methodsExploratory methods

Normative methodsNormative methods

Important criteria in selecting the method

Accuracy of methodsAccuracy of methods

Available dataAvailable data

Time horizonTime horizon

CostsCosts

Simplicity in applicationSimplicity in application

Delphi Method

Exploratory and intuitive methodExploratory and intuitive method

Uses advantages of group opinionUses advantages of group opinion

Overcomes obstacles which appear in group workOvercomes obstacles which appear in group work

Some facts

NAME: Oracle of Ancient Greece

FIRST USED: in 1950s by RAND Corporation in the USA

COLD WAR APPLICATION(Question related to likely number of USSR nuclear missiles)

Delphi Method

Qualitative research method with quantitative elements Qualitative research method with quantitative elements

Relies on the judgment of a panel of expertsRelies on the judgment of a panel of experts

Iterative process, taking place over a number of ‘rounds’Iterative process, taking place over a number of ‘rounds’

Delphi Method

Key features Key features

Anonymity of individualsAnonymity of individuals

Iterative process, ‘rounds’ with controlled feedbackIterative process, ‘rounds’ with controlled feedback

Statistical calculationStatistical calculation

QuestionnaireQuestionnaire

Application of Delphi method is adequate

when we need: • Subjective assessment• The experts of different profiles• Heterogeneous participants• Large groups …

when we need: • Subjective assessment• The experts of different profiles• Heterogeneous participants• Large groups …

if there are :• Difficulties when working face to face• High travel costs• Difficulties due to different value systems• Limited Time• Language barriers• Problems related to domination• Disagreements ...

if there are :• Difficulties when working face to face• High travel costs• Difficulties due to different value systems• Limited Time• Language barriers• Problems related to domination• Disagreements ...

Steps in conducting Delphi Method

ROUND:

Sending questionnaires

Filling in the questionnaires

Statistical calculation and feedback to expert

group

Presentation of results

Statistical measures Statistical measures

Graphical presentationGraphical presentation

Verbal descriptionVerbal description

Questions in Delphi

• TIME

• NEEDS

• POSSIBILITIES

• EFFECTS

• CONDITIONS

Variations in answers

o (optimistic)m (expected)p (pessimistic)

x

1 answer

3 answers

In how many years

 

0 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9

Year 2007 2008 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Question Predictions

1                  

2                  

3                  

4                  

5                  

6                  

Example of QuestionnaireExpert no.____ Round no.____

In how many years

 

0 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9

Year 2007 2008 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Expert Predictions

1   x                

2 x                  

3     x              

4   x                

5           x        

6         x          

Question no.___ _____ Round

Statistical calculation (1 answer)

i

k

iin ft

nt

1

1• tn - average time of occurrence

• fi - frequency

22

1

2 1ni

k

iin ttf

n

nn2

DispersionDispersion

Standard deviationStandard deviation

In how many years

 0

 1

 2

 3

 4

 5

 6

 7

 8

 9

Year 2007 2008

2009 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Expert Predictions

1       o   m p      

2           m        

3         o m p      

4         o   m p    

5       m            

6           o m p    

7         m          

Statistical calculation (3 answers)

321

321

rrr

prmrort iiii

r1, r2 i r3 are given by PERT method

r1=1, r2=4 i r3=1

4

22

r

op iii

r4=36

Overall expected time of occurrence and dispersion are calculated by

equations :

n

i

n

iniin

n

iin

ttn

tn

t

1 1

222

1

1

1

Probability of occurrence

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Godina

Ve

rov

atn

oć

a o

stv

are

nja

do

ga

đa

ja

Assignment

• Select the industry/organization adequate for conducting Delphi forecasting

• Prepare a list of 10 questions for Delphi questionnaire relevant for forecasting future developments in the environment that could affect organizations in selected industry