Manchester: Sub-Regional Context, 1969

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I

I ·

City and County Borough of Manchester

Sub- Regional Context

JS Millar BArch MTPI ARISA City Planning Officer Town Hall Manchester M602JT 061 236 3377

December 1969

Foreword 1

Introduction 3

Population 9

Housing 17

Employment 25

Shopping 37

Recreation 41

Transport 45

Summary 57

Appendices 65

Sources and relevant publications 99

Acknowledgements 101

1 Study Area in context

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Foreword

"From the very outset of our survey of a City, we must observe and understand it in its region" - Professor Patrick Geddes.

1/1 The Manchester Development Plan was approved in 1961 and had it not been for the imminent introduction of the new planning procedures contained in the 1968 A.ct, the Review of the City's Development Plan would have been submitted to the Minister by now. Work has proceeded for a considerable time on the bringing up-to-date of the original Development Plan proposals) and this research has been related not only to the City itself but also to its planning setting. It is indeed impossible to consider the City of Manchester, the centre of a metropolitan area, in isolation. The major industrial complex of Trafford Park, for example, lies outside the City's boundaries, whilst the central business and commercial area serves a very wide area, no less than 75% of the shopping turnover being accounted for by people from outside the City itself.

1/2 In recent years there has been a growing realisation of the need to think in broader Regional and sub-regional terms. One of the City's major problems, the clearance of unfit houses, could only be resolved on the basis that land outside its boundaries was made available for resettlement, whilst the SELNEC Highway Plan of 1962, and more recently, the SELNEC Area Land Use/Transportation Study, are examples of the recognition that it was necessary to look at a larger area to resolve the major transportation issues. In the future, the development of the proposed New Towns at Warrington and Central :Lancashire will make it even more necessary to consider the relationship between the Regional and local planning scales, whilst the need to deal with the anticipated increase i.n population, large scale problems of obsolescence, and the changing pattern of employment will also emphasise the interdependence of the various parts of the North West Region.

1/3 There is, of course, nothing new in this and it is notable that as long ago as 1945, when the City of Manchester Plan was prepared, work proceeded in parallel on two other plans, namely, the Manchester and District Regional Planning Proposals, 1945, and the South Lancashire and North Cheshire Advisory Plan,

1947. These plans were related to provide a consistent planning picture at least on the sub­regional scale.

1/4 The 1968 Town and Country Planning Act requires that the new Structure Plans shall be prepared in relationship to the proposals for neighbouring areas and to the economic planning development of the Region as a whole. These requirements will underline the importance of close co-operation between Central and Local Government on the Regional level, and between the authorities themselves at the sub-regional scale, although at the time when this report was being produced the machinery had not yet been designed.

1/5 This report is in no sense a policy document, nor is it intended to influence any strategic planning proposals which may emerge as a result of the machinery set up under the new Act. Its purpose is to gather together the research and survey work that had so far been undertaken towards providing a setting for the Review of the Manchester City Development Plan had it been necessary to produce such a plan under the old regulations. It is hoped that it may make some contribution as a starting point for the more wide-ranging investigations that will be necessary for the production of a Structure Plan in its Regional setting.

1/6 As far as the City itself is concerned, more detailed research has been carried out and is proceeding into particular aspects of the local planning picture, including population, industry, and the Central Area. The City Centre Map has already been published, and it is the intention to produce further reports on these other aspects in the future.

1

2 Study Area Local Authorities

Sub-areas

Census conurbation

Hind ley(part)

Lees

0

2

.. ~ ' ' I

I

4

--- .... .... ~,

•.

Manchester

1

2

8 m

Introduction

2/1 In any view of Manchester's relationship to the Region it is essential to appreciate the general scale involved. The North West Region has a population of about 6~ million, a greater number than Scotland, and five million are contained within the area along the Mersey that connects Manchester and Liverpool and is defined in the North West Study as the 'Mersey Division'. Three million people, a population greater than Wales, live in the general area of greater Manchester extending as far as the M6 Motorway. Manchester and Liverpool are the metropolitan centres which dominate the region and the whole of the heavily urbanised belt between the two is particularly significant in relation to the broader and long term strategic problems.

2/2 The Regional scale is undoubtedly appropriate for the solution of some of the major problems affecting the area, including the question of long term investment, the pattern of urbanisation, and the transportation picture as a whole. Recognition of the relevance of this scale is contained in documents such as the North West Study and the Strategy reports so far prepared by the North West Regional Economic Planning Council.

2/3 If the solutions to some of the major strategic issues must lie at the Regional scale, there are nevertheless many problems which can be identified and considered at the sub­regional level. As already explained, this report consists of material originally collected for a limited purpose, namely, to set the scene for the Review of the City's own Development Plan and it is, therefore, restricted in its scope to the 9.lb-regional setting. It is at this scale also that the SELNEC Area Land Use/Transportation studies have been carried out whilst a Passenger Transport Authority to improve and co-ordinate public transport at the conurbation level has recently been established.

2/ 4 One of the problems to be faced even in a limited exercise of this character was the definition of the area of study. Various alternative possibilities were considered, including the officially recognised South-East Lancashire Conurbation as defined by the Registrar General; the South East Lancashire sub-division, as used in the North West Study; the Manchester sub-region of the Regional

3

Economic Planning Council's Strategy II and, finally, the area selected for the SELNEC Land Use/Transportation Study. It was eventually decided to adopt the last mentioned (Diagram 2), the overriding reason being that valuable data was available, compatible in all respects with the Transportation Study information. The area selected moreover is broadly identifiable on the basis of criteria such as journey to work, catchment area of the Manchester central shopping district, newspaper circulations, and the catchment area of selected cultural facilities; these factors are considered briefly in Appendix A.

2/5 It is important to appreciate that whilst the area forms part of the North West Region, the boundaries of both are for many purposes arbitrary, their selection being determined principally by administrative convenience and data availability. The area occupies a key position in the commercial and industrial economy of the north and indeed the United Kingdom. Manchester and Salford form the core of the area which also includes the five County Boroughs of Stockport, Oldham, Rochdale, Bury and Bolton together with 34 County Districts in Lancashire and 15 in Cheshire. The multiplicity of authorities and the complex administrative structure is very pronounced in South East Lancashire. Whilst the built-up areas are extensive, it is a mistake to look upon the towns and communities of the area as merely forming part of an amorphous industrial landscape; there is great variety within the area, although the image of the first industrial revolution still casts its shadow over much of it.

2/6 Physically the area is a natural basin between 200 and 400 feet above sea level, draining to the west and encircled by uplands up to 1500 feet and in some places 2, 000 feet . In particular the existence of the moss lands to the west has formed a limitation to natural expansion along the Mersey Valley. Rainfall in the hilly areas is generally more than 50 inches per annum and exceeds 60 inches in the highest areas. The lowest average rainfall occurs in parts of north Cheshire, where it is about 30 inches per annum, while the principal centres of population to the north of Manchester average about 45 inches per annum. Within the City of Manchester the annual rainfall

4

varies from 31 inches in Wythenshawe in the south to more than 40 in the north. The annual average for the City Centre is 34 inches, comparable to the average figure (34. 5") for the whole of England and Wales. However, most of the Study Area has an average of less than 3. 5 hours of sunshine a day which is well below the National average.

2/7 There is still considerable atmospheric pollution over the whole area - more than 100 tons of solid deposits per square mile per annum. The steady improvement resulting from smoke control in recent years has however been reflected in the very much lower incidence of fog and higher sunshine averages than in the earlier years of this century. The number of foggy days per annum increases from 20 on the western boundaries of the area to more than 40 in the Stockport, Manchester and Salford areas. The higher ground to the north east of Manchester has rather less than 40 days with fog but in the hill areas further east, where there is often low cloud and mist, the figure rises again. It is apparent that the southern and south-western parts of the area enjoy a significantly better climate with a longer growing season and less atmospheric pollution. Already the progress towards Clean Air has made a radical improvement in certain parts, and rapid progress in making the whole of the area subject to smoke control would yield a high return in improving the general environment,apart from the direct contribution to public health.

2/8 The principal physical constraints on the extension of development are shown in Diagram 3; these include high land over the 600 foot contour or land which is very steep or difficult to drain, including the extensive moss area to the west. In addition,there has in recent years been the concept of the Green Belt. The South Lancashire Green Belt, which is also indicated in the diagram, surrounds Merseyside and extends eastwards towards the Study Area. In the South West Lancashire Plain the land is generally of high agricultural value and intensively cultivated, but at the eastern end, particularly in the north of the Study Area, the Green Belt tends to be more fragmented and of lesser agricultural value, including many uses which are closely related to the adjoining urban areas. To the south of the Study Area, the North Cheshire Green Belt mostly consists of

3 Study Area development constraints

land over 60Q'plus other land unsuited to development (peat and steep slopes1

Amenity areas-green belt National Parks and other major open spaces

Existing built up area • 0 4 Sm

5

4 Study Area journey to work

Persons (000)

100

BO

BO

70

60

•• :

I \ I ....... .. , .i

50 •• i ...... . . !

40

30

20

10

The centre

'·· ' ••• • Persons working 1n

Manchester Central Area

Salford

Strelford

Other economically ect1ve

res idents.

•••• • ••• ' ~ ' ~ •• •• •• •• •• •• •• • •• ••• ••• ................ tit

<Manchester central area/Salford/ Strettord)

+2o 0to

5-20°10

1- 5 °to ----·--·-The level of daily movement to the centre is expressed as a percentage of the total work ing population

Source:1961 Census and Journey to Work Tables

6

0 4 8m

good farmland which is scenically attractive whilst it includes some parklands and recreational areas. The principle underlying these Green Belt proposals has been essentially the containment of the peripheral growth of existing built-up areas and the prevention of towns merging, particularly along the Mersey Valley. In the future it would appear more likely that the emphasis will move towards their positive utilisation for agriculture, leisure, or even appropriate for ms of development as part of a Regional planning strategy, as distinct from the more negative approach of regarding them primarily as barriers between existing settlements.

2/9 For the purpose of analysis of the internal structure and especially the City of Manchester's relationship to it, it has been necessary to sub­divide the Study Area. In Appendix A 2 it is divided into zones on the basis of journey to work data, derived from the 1961 Census, and also the circulation of local newspapers. In the case of the journey to work patterns, the zones shown on the diagram are centred upon authorities whichreceive 30% or more of the emigrant workers of any other local authority in this zone (or the higher movement in the case of two local authorities each receiving more than 30%).

2/ 10 These work movements reveal the existence of five identifiable zones centred on Manchester, Bolton, Bury, Rochdale and Oldham. If Manchester Central Area, Salford and Stretford are considered as one single work centre, then the Manchester zone extends to include Swinton, Irlam and Worsley. In the two remaining zones, Leigh and Ashton/Hyde, no large-scale movement to any central focus takes place, although there are a number of small internal movements which give these zones some form of cohesion.

available for these units, it is these sub­divisions which are used in this Report as a framework for analysis. As Appendix A, diagram 2 illustrates, there are eight such sub-divisions centred on:

(a) Manchester (b) Bolton (c) Bury (d) Rochdale

(e) Oldham (f) Stockport (g) Altrincham (h) Leigh

2/ 12 It will be noted that the Manchester Sub­Division includes Stretford and Salford, together with a number of smaller local authorities comprising Audenshaw, Droylsden, Denton, Eccles, Failsworth, Irlam, Middleton, Prestwich, Swinton, Urmston and Worsley.

2/ 13 The journey to work and newspaper circulation analyses mentioned above demonstrate the important centres of attraction within the Study Area, of which Bolton, Bury, Rochdale, Oldham and Stockport are the most significant. It is obvious that the Central Area of Manchester is predominant, not only within the geographical limits of the Study Area itself, but over much of the North West Region. Its specialised role was described in the City Centre Map Report 1967, and the intensive land use associated with the activities in the Central Area results in a very high level of employment. Diagram 4 indicates the way in which this employment is drawn from the various parts of the Study Area. It is apparent that whilst the southern sub-divisions are closely linked with the Central Area in terms of employment, the northern manufacturing towns are more self-contained.

2/14 It is now possible to turn to a systematic appraisal of major problems and opportunities within the Study Area, including population, housing, employment, shopping, transport and leisure and recreation; the implications of

2/11 The Manchester zone, as described above, this analysis for the City of Manchester are is clearly unwieldy for analytical purposes, and naturally given prominence in the context of contains within it, in the south, large areas of this report. predominantly residential post-1920 development, centred on Stockport and Altrincham. With the identification of separate areas based on these centres, the zones identified on both the journey to work and newspaper circulation criteria closely coincide with the sub-divisions used in the SELNEC Area Land Use/Transportation Study, and since there is a wealth of data

7

5 England & Wales civilian population changes

Persons (000)

240

220

200

180

160

140

+120

100

BO

60

40

20

0

20

-40

60

Natural change

Migration

Study Area (jnc in North WesD

Total change is indicated by the heavy line

8

> 11 *1~0 •

+ns

The height of each column represents the mean annual change tor !he period.The columns represent the periods-1951-56 1956- 61and1961-66. Total per cent change for 1951-66 is shown in figures

Source.Census

0 100 200 m

Population

3/1 There is a significant correlation between population growth and economic opportunity in different parts of the country. Between 1951 and 1966 the population of Great Britain increased by over four millions (9. 6%), but this growth was concentrated predominantly in the Midlands and the South East (see Table l and Diagram 5). In the North West Region, the rate of population growth in this period was comparatively low at 5. 4%, this figure being less than half the rate achieved in the Midlands and the South East. The rate of natural increase in the North West has been consistently below the national average, but the low rate of total increase has been far more influenced by the loss of population due to migration. It should be pointed out, however, that net outward migration has decreased considerably since 1961, and that some sub-regions of the North-West, in particular Blackpool and Fylde, and South Cheshire and High Peak, have experienced an appreciable net inward migration over recent years.

3/2 In the Study Area, as Table l shows, the overall rate of population growth over the period 19 51- 1966 amounted to only 0. 7%. Indeed, at the time of the 1966 Census, the population of the area was 2, 574, 000*, a level which shows only a marginal increase over the 1931 Census figure of 2, 550, 000. It is interesting that despite the influx of 29, 000 Commonwealth immigrants into the Study area since 1950, the population level has remained virtually constant.

3 /3 There are two factors which are primarily responsii:>le for the negligible rate of population growth in the Study Area since 1951, compared with both the North West Region and Great Britain, namely:-(i) a low level of natural increase This stems mainly from a high death rate, which in 1964 was 2% above comparable national figures. This is not so much due to the age-structure of the Study Area, but is a sympton of the fact that it has not yet fully recovered from the environmental effects of

* 1966 is used as a base date for population, and figures were taken from the 10% Sample Census of that year. However, an upward adjustment of 20, 000 was made because of an error found in the Census for Manchester C. B.

9

its industrial history. As a result there is still a comparatively high incidence of deaths due to diseases such as bronchitis and tuberculosis, and also to certain forms of cancer and heart disease. (ii) a high Level of outward migration Even though the rate of natural increase in the Study Area has been relatively low, the overall rate of population increase has been even lower, reflecting a considerable loss by outward migration. This has been estimated at 88, 000 between 1951 and 1961, although there was a compensatory gain of 19, 000 from the armed forces over the same period. Between 1961 and 1966 both natural increase and outward migration have shown a substantial rise over the previous periods.

3 / 4 Although the total population of the Study Area has remained fairly constant over the last forty years, the land use position has been far from static as a result of the thinning out process to relieve congestion. Diagram 6 traces the physical growth of the conurbation since 1845, and illustrate the rate at which additional land, particularly in

Table 1 Civilian population changes 1951/66

Great Britain

1951

1956

1961

1966

North West

1951

1956

1961

1966

Study Areas

1951

1956

1961

' 1966

10

Population ( 000)

48, 333

49,234

51,046

52,987

6,380

6, 432

6,542

6, 728

2,557

2,541

2,565

2,574

Natur<>l increase ( 000)

No

1,013

1,300

1,688

102

134

189

32

45

67

o/o

2. 1

2.6

3.3

1. 6

2.1

2.9

1. 3

1. 8

2.6

the south of the area, has been used for development since 1930. This is the result of internal population movement which has arisen from changing economic circumstances, improved social conditions, and increasing mobility. The trend has been accelerated in recent years by planned redevelopment and overspill schemes dealing with the problems of obsolescence in the older areas.

Characteristics of population change

3/5 The main characteristics of population change as applied to the Study Area as a whole, namely the low rate of overall change and the high rate of outward migration in recent years, conceal important differences between the various sub-divisions. It is necessary to examine these differences, particularly with regard to their significance in relation to urban structure, to land requirements and availability, and to consider the structural characteristics of the total population. It then becomes possible to highlight the position of the City of Manchester itself within this context.

Estimated gain from armed forces ( 000)

o/o

75

281

61

10

36

7

4

15

5

Migration ( 000)

No

- 187

+ 230

+ 194

- 60

- 60

- 10

- 52

- 36

- 63

Total change ( 000)

o/o No o/o

- 0. 4 + 001 + L 9

-0.5 +l,812 + 3. 7

- 0.4 +l, 941 + 3. 8

- 0. 9 + 52 + 0. 8

- 0. 9 + llO + 1. 7

- 0. 2 + 186 + 2.9

- 2. 0 - 16 - 0.6

-1.4 + 24 + 0.9

- 2. 5 + 9 + 0.4

6 Study Area physical growth and population change

... \

.I 1845 .I 1891

~ ,. 1964 1924 ..

Gt Britain Per cent change since 1841 Conurbation. thousands millions 60

180

50 160

45 140 2500

40 120

100 35

80

30 60 500

25 40

20 20 1000

1841 51 61 71 81 91 1901 11 21 31 41 51 61 71

Great Britai

Study Area

Points corresponding to maps above

Source:Registrar Generals Statistical Review

11

3/6 Important sub-divisional variations are concealed by the overall static position and this is apparent from Appendix B, diagram 1, and tables 2 and 3. There have been substantial population increases in the southern sub-divisions of Stockport and A ltrincham, a large decline in the Manchester sub-division and smaller changes (all decreases except for Bury) in the other sub-divisions.

3/7 It is notable that natural increase, which accelerated between 1951 and 1966 in all sub­divisions, was higher in Manchester, Stockport and Altrincham than elsewhere. In Manchester this is due to a young age structure and in the other two sub-divisions many young and growing families have been attracted to new housing developments.

3 /8 It is migration movements however, that have been chiefly responsible for the large differences between the sub-divisions. Voluntary movement has caused the large increases of 60, 000 and 24, 000 in the Stockport and Altrincham sub-divisions respectively between 1956 and 1966. This contrasts with small changes elsewhere in the Study Area except in one case, the Manchester sub-division, where there has been a very significant loss by voluntary movement. Planned migration has also played a large part in the re-distribution of population within the Study Area; the southern areas and the Bury sub-division have shown the greatest increase from overspill and as might be expected the population has mainly come from the Manchester sub-division.

3 /9 Of special interest is the fact that the net movement between areas conceals a very high rate of change within authorities themselves. For example, in Manchester 103 of the population had changed dwellings in the year prior to the 1966 Census. In the Standard Conurbation, 8. 13 of the population had moved within the area during that year, and l. 83 had moved into it; the net migration of -3520 was made up of a gain of 44, 520 and a loss of 48, 040. These figures are illustrative of the constant change taking place in the community.

3/10 Population trends in the City of Manchester have been broadly similar to

12

those in the Manchester sub-division. The most substantial clearance of unfit dwellings has taken place in Manchester and Salford, and in addition to loss of population due to voluntary movement, this has meant a high level of planned resettlement on sites outside the Cities. Despite the relatively high rate of natural increase, therefore, the total population of the City of Manchester fell from 703, 000 in 1951 to 662, 000 in 1961 and to 618, 000 in 1966.

3/11 The variations in age-structure within the Study Area (as shown in Appendix B, table 4) are relatively small; however, the Manchester sub-division and the City in particular, have younger than average populations, and the reason for the relatively young age structure of the Stockport and A ltrincham sub-divisions has already been mentioned. Age structure affects natural increase and household formation and is therefore an important factor in the assessment of future housing requirements.

3/12 Variations in the distribution of population by occupation groups over the Study Area are far more marked and are indeed s triking. These occupational groups are taken from the Local Housing Indices of the 1961 Census, and are based on a combination into three broad groupings of the 17 socio-economic categories used by the Registrar-General. The groupings used are -

1 professional and technical workers and managers

2 skilled manual and lower grade "white collar" workers

3 semi-skilled and unskilled workers.

Diagram 7 illustrates the distribution by Local Authority of these three broad groupings.

3/13 There is a correspondingly great variation in the socio-economic compostion and the character of the Local Authority areas constituting the Study Area. The proportion of population of the Local Authorities for example in the professional/technical group varies from 503 in Bowdon to 4% in several groups of central Manchester wards, whilst the proportion in the unskilled/semi-skilled

7 Study Area socio-economic groups

~ Manchester

~ SELNEC

~England ~ andWales

Class I Professional and technical workers. managers

ClasslI Junior non manual, skilled manual workers

Classm Semi-skilled, unskilled manual workers

• D

Class by percentage

Manchester

Study Area

England and Wales

Source: Census 1961

0 4

I II m

95 59-4 31·2

12·7 581 29·2

14 ·1 54 8 31 2

Sm

13

manual group varies from 12% in Hazel Grove and Bramhall to 463 in Crompton U. D. It is also interesting to note the clearly defined and continuous belt of Local Authorities south of the City from Sale M. B. in the west to Marple U. D. in the east, comprising nine authorities, in which more than 25% of the population is in the professional/technical group. There is no other Local Authority in the Study Area, and only two wards in south Manchester where the proportion of professional/technical workers is so high.

3/14 The continuation or alteration of the present population trends within the Study Area depend upon a number of important factors, in particular the location of land, inside or outside the Study Area, to meet housing demand and the rate at which it can be made available, together with the rate at which redevelopment of the inner clearance areas takes place. The North West Study estimated that land shortages would appear in the favoured southern areas, where Green Belt policy would restrict further expansion, by the early 1970ts, if present building rates continued. This problem is considered further in the section on housing.

Future populatto,n change and distribution

3/15 Because migration is certain to be a most important factor, and because it is so difficult to forecast its likely future level, it is not easy to predict population change and distribution in the Study Area. Table 2 contains a series of population estimates to 1981, one for the North­west Region, and two for the Study Area. The Regional figures, derived from the North West

Table 2 Estimated population changes 1966/81 ('000)

Study, are more reliable since migration trends can be more realistically predicted at that level, where they are also proportionately less significant. Of the estimates for the Study Area, the first is the sum of the Local Planning Authorities' forecasts, in which migration predictions are based on land availability within each Authority's area. The second is taken directly from the SELNEC Area Land Use/Transportation Study estimates, (see SE LNEC Transportation Study Technical Working Paper No. 3; Planning Data), in which an attempt is being made to relate future population to anticipated economic changes. The Economic Base Method was used in the preparation of these estimates, although certain modifications were necessary, and this method has its limitations particularly when applied to the special characteristics of a Metropolitan Area.

3/16 It will be apparent from Table 2 that the population of the Study Area is expected to grow by natural increase to 2, 912, 000. However, if migration continues, which to some extent depends on the level of prosperity in the area, then the actual population will be reduced. On the basis of the SE LNE C Transportation Study estimate using the Economic Base Method the actual population would be 2, 707, 000; on tbe basis of a total of individual local authority estimates of land availability the figure would be 2, 790, 000.

3 /17 The age structure of the 1981 population, if the implications of migration are removed, is likely to be rather different from the present structure. Growth in the young and retired

Mid-y ear

Mid-year population 1966

North West 6, 728

St udy Area (Local Authority estimates) 2, 574

Study Area (SELNEC estimates) 2, 574

14

National chanr 1966 81

No

+ 863

+ 338

+ 338

population 1981 National change only

'1o

+12.8 7, 591

+13. 1 2, 912

+13.1 2, 912

Estimated Planned and total vol untary population migrat ion 1981 Total change

No '1o No '1o

-153 -2.3 7,456 +728 +10. 8

-122 -4. 7 2, 790 +216 + 8.4

-205 -8.0 2,707 +133 + 5.2

age-groups will continue, but the working age group will decline as a proportion of total population (Appendix B, Table 4 ). This will clearly have an important bearing on future employment supply and demand, and on productivity. Clearly the structure of the "net" flow of migrants is very important, because of its impact on the 1981 age/sex structure of the Study Area. Any change in the structure of either inward or outward migrants would affect the structure of the "net" flow, and ultimately, the 1981 structure.

3/18 Table 2 shows that a net movement of 120, 000 - 200, 000 people out of the Study Area may be anticipated. A proportion of the anticipated new flow of migrants will be "planned" migrants in the sense that they may be accommodated in New Towns or Town Development Schemes outside the Study Area. As regards clearance and redevelopment the nature of the operation and its timing so far as Manchester itself is concerned, makes it unlikely that the proposed New Towns of Warrington/Risley and Central Lancashire will be in a position to offer a significant contribution. In relation to the longer term problems of the Study Area as a whole, including Manchester, the two New Towns will, of course, be of much greater importance. Overspill movements within the Study Area itself do not affect the overall migration pictlire although they have been taken into account in the distribution between sub-divisions referred to in the next paragraph.

3/19 It is necessary to consider the likely distribution and character of the population change anticipated within the Study Area. For this purpose the SELNEC estimate for the Study Area as a whole has been taken, because, of course, this takes into account not only the amount of land available, but also the likelihood of its being developed within the period having regard to economic circumstances. In the SELNEC Study an estimate was also made of the likely distribution as between Local Authorities aggregated by sub-divisions (Appendix B, Table 5 ). This distribution reflects not only the relationship of the various sub-divisions to the area as a whole, but it takes into account practical questions relating to the amount of land likely to be available. For example, although the Stockport, Altrincham

and Bury sub-divisions would normally be expected to continue to experience the highest overall increases, limitations of land -availability may affect the position in the southern areas. In the case of Manchester sub-division there are large areas of redevelopment and notwithstanding the high rate of natural increase it is expected to continue to lose population rapidily; this of course is due to land shortage and it is evident that the sub-division will have to continue to rely on other areas to meet the need for residential land.

3/20 Of greater relevance to any consideration of a Regional strategy of population location are the likely population trends after 1981. Natural increase in the North West Region may be of the order of 1. 6 million between 1981 and 2, 000, and about 625, 000 of this is likely to take place in the Study Area. In addition to this, no doubt, there will be further redevelopment giving rise to housing need. Whilst there are difficulties in arriving at reliable and detailed information on trends beyond 1981, the large scale problem likely to occur in the closing decades of the Century will need to be taken into account in attempting to solve current problems.

3/21 All these factors are clearly of particular importance to the City of Manchester in coming years, because it has by far the greatest housing problem. TI1e natural increase implied in the 1966 City population of 618, 000 would be about 113, 000 up to 1981, giving a total of 731, 000. This total, of course, could not be supported within the City boundaries, and, in fact, because of redevelopment and migration trends, is expected to fall to about 564, 000 by 1981. The following section will, therefore, consider housing needs and land availability.

15

16

Housing

4/1 The number of unfit dwellings in England and Wales as a percentage of all dwellings has been declining only slowly. It had dropped from 6. 6% in 1955 to 5. 33 in 1965, and even this decline in percentage terms was largely accounted for by the increased stock of houses. The proportion of unfit dwellings in the North was still twice that of the South, while the North-West/South East difference was six-fold. Table 3 shows the comparative position, and these statistics relate to 1965, which is the latest year for which consistent information is available. Of all the Regions, the North-West had by far the greatest percentage and absolute number·of unfit dwellings, while within the Region, Manchester showed up particularly unfavourably although, of course, since 1965 considerable progress has been made and in January, 1969, the number of unfit dwellings in the City had been reduced to 44, 615.

4/2 The 13, 000 acres of officially defined derelict land (Ministry of Housing Derelict Land Survey Returns 1967), in the Region, together with the thousands of acres of other waste land which require treatment to be brought into productive use, may be seen together with the quarter of a million unfit houses as forming a very large problem of obsolescence. If rapid progress is to be made, it will be necessary to co-ordinate renewal operations as far as possible with those necessary to accommodate population growth and to eliminate the existing overcrowding and shortage of dwellings.

4/3 Apart from the need to replace houses that

Table 3 Unfit dwellings - March 1965

As per cent of Number all dwellings

England and Wales 832,860 5,3

North West 27 9,320 12.6

Study Area 127,000 14. 3

Manchester CB 60, 85 0 30.4

Source:

(except Manchester figure) - Ministry of Housing and Local Goverrunent Circular 11/65 Returns (March 1965)

17

are unfit, the extent of the like Ly demand for houses is made up of the needs to remove overcrowding and shortage and to provide for future increase in population. While the North­west Study contained valuable survey material, it stopped short of putting forward any Regional physical planning proposals to meet the long term needs. The movement outwards from the older parts of the conurbation (see Diagram No. 8 ), has been underway for many years; while the population of the Study Area remained virtually static between 1931 and 1951, the number of houses increased by 223, and the average occupancy fell from 4. 2 to 3. 5 persons, falling further to 3. 0 in 1961. Since the War, it has been necessary for the authorities in the conurbation with congestion problems to carry out schemes for the planned dispersal of population, and most of these have been built within the Study Area itself; private house building has also consisted mainly of deve Lopment on the fringes of the area -~nfilling within the existing pattern. Manchester, following the success of Wythenshawe, attempted to promote schemes of New Town scale, notably at Lymm and Mobberley, but none of these attempts came to fruition. Although the scheme to accommodate Salford overspill at Worsley -the scheme that pioneered the Town Development Act - has been successful, other town development schemes at Macclesfield, Winsford, Crewe, and Burnley have so far made only a very limited contribution to the needs of Manchester. An attempt to promote a large scale Town Development scheme at Westhoughton was not successful, and had to be abandoned. In consequence almost all the City's overspill has been accommodated on sites within the conurbation itself, in 17 areas in all, ranging from Middleton in Lancashire to Knutsford in Cheshire, and from Partington on the west to Glossop on the slopes of the Pennines. (See Appendix C, Table 1).

4/4 More recently however, New Town sites have been designated at Warrington and Central Lancashire, and these represent the first major long distance and large scale provision for the Study Area (Diagram 9 ). The Warrington proposal involves the extension of an existing town of 127, 000 to a population of 205, 000, and it is designed to take overspill from the whole conurbation; along with Runcorn (a New Town development to serve

18

8 North West Region urban growth

~/mrn~~1~1j ... -:: ..... . ...... . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... . . . . . . .·

. I >:::.-;~Lit \ . ··:·, .......... . - . 1 ........ . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . - . . . . ......... .

- . - . ::~:_ .:..:~ ::::::::::::::::::::::. - _....=_ -.-==>.,..- ... -:'· / : =>~=>>~<<

.... .....

...

• -=-, ' ' .,,-' '-,

New town

Expanded town

Overspill scheme

\ \ \

•

• .... •

\ :-:-:-:.;-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:

•

' ... :::::::::::;:;:;:;:;:::;:

.. · .. . ;!;::::::::::.

•

•

.... .... .... .....

---

.....

/ ;'

. ......... . . . . . . . . . ......... . ' ..... . ........ . . . . . . . ....... .. ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

----...... _.,,,../ ,,,1 ·.·

• • • Note:Mapshows development completed or under construction -1966

Merseyside), it rnay be seen as part of a continuing process of consolidation along the Mersey Valley and the Manchester Ship Canal. Detailed plans have not yet been published, and development is unlikely to start before the mid 1970's. The Central Lancashire scheme, for which a draft Designation Order has recently been issued, involves the ultimate expansion from an existing 250, 000 population to 500, 000, and is based on the existing towns of Preston, Leyland and Chorley. Because of the likely rate of implementation, and the practical difficulties of combining large scale clearance with movements to New Towns on an industrial se lction basis, it is not like Ly that the two New Towns will make a substantial contribution to Manchester's clearance needs, although there is no doubt that both will be justified by natural increase and other general housing needs in the Study Area as a whole.

The housing stock

4/5 In the Study Area itself, the total housing stock in 1961 was 864, 000 of which one quarter was built before 1861. The rates of clearance vary greatly between different parts of the area; out of 81, 960 unfit dwellings in Manchester at the beginning of the clearance programme some 33, 000 had been cleared by the end of 1967, but in the remainder of the Study Area clearance has been slower; although only 27% of the estimated unfit dwellings in the Study Area were in Manchester. 43% of the clearance between 1964 and 1966 was within the City. The rate of clearance in the Study Area has averaged 9, 700 per annum in recent years.

4/6 Most Local Authorities own a significant proportion of the total housing stock in their areas, and there is therefore the opportunity to relet dwellings which have become vacant to families from clearance areas; in several Local Authorities in recent years the rate of clearance has in fact exceeded the rate at which dwellings have been provided by the public sector.• To use the existing dwellings for rehousing from clearance areas means, of course, that they are not available to cater for the other needs notably new household formation and the relief of overcrowding, which are to some extent reflected ih the general waiting lists. The effect of diverting these houses from the needs which they would

9 North West Region pattern of future growth

.. ~::~:~U~~~::>.ij .. ~11111! . :: ; : ~ 1 : : : : . ~ :.:-i :_ - =- ..=..- , :;<- ;;: =- -=-== - / .

\

~:::::::·

New town

Proposed new town

Expanded town Proposed and under construction

Proposed nuclear power station

Existing motorway

Proposed motorway

Existing urban development

.·

• 0

• x

---

19

normally be expected to meet will depend on the circumstances of a particular area, including its population characteristics and the extent of overcrowding, whilst voluntary migration out of an area altogether is bound to be encouraged if satisfactory homes are not available.

4/7 Private house building has been an important factor in the re -distribution of population throughout the Study Area. The general direction of movement has been southwards into Cheshire, first following the main railway lines, and then as road communications improved, filling up the interstices. The number of suitable sites available, however, in the southern parts of the conurbation is now severely limited a restraining influence being exerted by Green Belt policy. In recent years, there has been an increase in private house building in the northern part of the Study Area, now much more attractive for living as a result of Clean Air progress whilst the greater accessibility offered by the motorcar is making more distant areas surrounding the conurbation accessible for daily travel.

Assessment of housing needs and resources

4/8 An understanding of the nature and extent of housing needs and the resources required is a pre-requisite to the formulation of policies concerning land availability, which will in turn exert an important influence on the future development of both the Study Area and the North-West Region. The factors which need to be considered in trying to assess overall housing need are the existing shortage, the rate of formation of new households, and the extensive clearance programme.

4/9 The most direct method of assessing the existing shortage of dwellings is to compare the total number of separate dwellings in the Study Area with the number of households; at the 1966 Census there was a short fall of about 18, 000 dwellings, of which 11, 100 represented the excess of households over dwe Llings in Manchester.

4/ 10 The most recent projections of household formation trends by the Ministry of Housing and Local Government suggest that 85, 000

20

new households will be created within the Study Area between 1966 and 1981, of which 24, 400 are Likely to be in the City. The estimate for the Manchester sub-division shows an expected increase of some 47, 000 households.

4/11 Allowing for clearance which has taken place since 1961, one in three dwellings in the Study Area may be considered obsolete if an age criterion is used (i.e. dwellings built before 1881). More than 200, 000 dwellings were unfit in 1965, and by the turn of the century - as diagram IO shows - there could be large areas requiring comprehensive renewal and/or extensive improvement. The diagram shows the extent of property built between 1845 and 1890, and includes, of course, some areas of Low density "villa" type of development, - many of which will be far from obsolete in 1981, and other areas which may be substantially renewed by piecemeal private deve Lopment. The diagram also shows development which took place between 1890 and 1924 which could include a high incidence of obsolescence by the end of the century. Appendix C, Table 2 shows by sub-region enumerated properties at various census dates. Experiments have been made in re-habilitation and no doubt this will be developed, but dwellings in current clearance programmes will not be suitable for this kind of treatment.

4/ 12 There are several ways of assessing the demand resulting from the clearance of unfit dwellings; three alternatives are considered here:- the first is based on the Latest Ministry figures for the aggregated number of dwellings present on clearance lists, the second is derived from a projection of current clearance rates in the Study Area up to 1981, and the third is an assessment of the total clearance necessary if rateable value criteria are introduced.

4/ 13 On the basis of the latest estimate from the Ministry of Housing and Local Government 1967, there are 116, 000 dwellings on clearance lists which include dwellings outside clearance areas required for road widening and so on. The Ministry estimate that about 3, 250 dwellings will be added to this number each year so that by 1981 the total would have risen to 164, 750, which represents the demolition

10 Study Area distribution of older dwellings

Areas built up by 1845/91 most of which will become obsolete by 1981

Areas built up by1891/1924 most of which will become obsolete by 2001

Industrial areas are included Central business districts and areas cleared by 1965 are excluded

0 4 Bm

•

21

programme in the Study Area. The annual rate of clearance has reached about 9, 700 in recent years, and if continued at thisrate to 1981 the number of dwellings demolished would be about 145,000

4/ 14 The North-West Study estimated the number of dwellings in the South East Lancashire Sub-Division with a rateable value below £30. After adjustments to allow for differences in area, and the clearance which took place between 1964 and 1966, the total number of dwellings within this category is about 220, 000. It is, of course, likely that despite their low rateable value some of these may be well maintained properties which will Lend themselves to improvement, but it is worth noting that if all these dwellings required to be demolished before 1981, the average annual rate of clearance would have to be about 14, 700, or an increase of more than 503 of the current rate.

4/15 The North-West Study, in an endeavour to apply some sort of consistent standard, related stated clearance proposals to more objective and measurable criteria, such as the age of dwellings, the rateable value, and dwellings without a fixed bath; the close correspondence between Manchester's official clearance proposals and ·the numbers arrived at by app lying these criteria shown in Appendix C, Table 3, may be noted. A summary of the likely total housing need within the Study Area up to 1981 is contained in Table 4 below;

Table 4 Estimated housing needs 1966/81

Study Manchester Manchester Type of need Area sub-division CB

Existing 18,500 shortage 14, 000 ll, 100

Total clearance A 220, 000 A 106,400 needs B 145,000 B 87. 100 53,400

Increase in households 84,000 47,200 24,400

Total need A 322, 500 A 167,600 B 247,500 B 148,300 88, 900

Note:

A Rateable value criteria B Current clearance rate criteria

22

because of the difficulty in arriving at a reliable estimate of the number of dwellings requiring clearance, a range of possibilities is indicated.

4/16 It must be emphasised that this range does not make any allowance for planned or voluntary migration out of the area. The maximum possible range of demand which is likely to arise in the area over the period, is anticipated, therefore, to be between the figures of 322, 500 and 247, 500. The alternative estimates of SELNEC's 1981 population, previously discussed, (See Para. 3/16 ante) imply a substantial reduction in the total need which has to be satisfied within the Study Area. The population forecast of 2, 790, 000 in 1981 (based on the Local Authorities own estimates) implies a loss of about 41, 000 households through migration, whilst the SE LNEC economic base projection of 2, 707, 000 implies a loss of about 7 4, 000 households. If the Local Authorities own estimates are accepted the overall housing need to be satisfied within the Study Area would fall between the figures of 281, 500 and 206, 500; if the economic base projection is used the need would fall between the figures of 248, 500 and 173, 500.

4/17 The North-West Study considered that land could be made available for the period 1964/81 for about 265, 000 dwellings at current densities within the South-East Lancashire sub-division. (The South-East Lancashire sub-division differs from the SELNEC Area in that it includes Lymm, Knutsf ord, all of Buck low, and the High Peak District of Derbyshire). Taking into account adjustments for differences in area, clearance rates, development which has taken place, and overspill schemes in the pipe-line, it is estimated that between 1966 and 1981 land for between 206, 000 and 246, 000 dwellings could be made available in the Study Area, of which between 76, 000 and 116, 000 would be accommodated on redevelopment sites (depending on the clearance rate which in practice results - see Table 4).

The housing equation

4/ 18 If migration from the Study Area were on the scale envisaged by the economic base population projection, then most of the land required for housing up to 1981 could be found

within its boundaries. If local authorities fore casts of outward migration are accepted and clearance rates were increased, there could be a short fall of up to 36, 000 sites in the Study Area up to 1981. On the other hand, if all outward migration were to cease and clearance rates were high, then the short fall would be of the order of 76, 000 sites. The effects on the final deficit of taking varying assumptions regarding migration and clearance rates are shown in Table 5.

4/19 Apart from the quantification of housing demand and land availability, it is important to appreciate that it may not always be desirable to meet housing needs on particular sites or indeed provide for all land requirements within the Study Area; the need to improve communications, and relate new housing areas more effectively to shopping and community facilities, and to place of work, may be more relevant considerations than the simple criterion of land availability. The quality of urban life and environment is equally important; the layout and design of residential areas as planned communities, needs to be improved. The re-settlement of large numbers of people creates its own social problems and greater attention must be paid to the provision of the necessary ancillary facilities at the same time as the houses are being built.

Table 5 The housing equation

No migration No migration maximum minimum

Study Area clearance clearance

Existing shortage 18, 500 18, 500

Clearance 220,000 145,000

Household increase minus migration 84, 000 84, 000

Total need 322,500 247, 500

Land availability 246,000 206, 000

Deficit 76,500 41, 000

4/20 The emphasis must also increasingly be directed towards an overall planning strategy for the North-West Region, in which the particularly pressing needs of the Study Area can be considered within a rational settlement framework. Despite the substantial rate of slum clearance in some authorities in response to the policies of successive Governments, a much increased rate will be needed in others if there are not to be many unfit houses remaining after 1981 - although the emphasis of the current Housing Bill may slow the rate of physical and environmental deterioration of the less obsolete stock in the future. Even more important after 1981 will be the natural increase of the population of the Study Area, which may be expected to grow, assuming no outward migration. to well over 3 million by the end of the century. Taking into account all the New Towns, and the sites within the Study Area indicated in the North-West Study, this could still leave a need for about 32, 000 acres - more than equivalent to the area of administrative Manchester - to cater for the total housing needs of the conurbation. This emphasises the necessity to relate post 1981 problems to the Regional scale.

Local Local Economic Economic Authority Authority base base population population population population estimate estimate estimate estimate maximum minimum maximum minimum clearance clearance clearance clearance

18, 500 18, 500 18,500 18,500

220,000 145, 000 220,000 145, 000

43,000 43, 000 10,000 10, 000

281,500 206, 500 248, 500 173,500

246,000 206,000 246,000 206, 000

35,500 500 2,500 +32, 500 (surplus)

23

24

Trafford Park Industrial Estate ( Airviews ltd/ Manchester Airport)

Employment

5/ l Whilst employment is distributed widely throughout the Study Area, there is a marked concentration on an east to west axis extending from Openshaw and Newton Heath, through the centre of Manchester to Trafford Park. Both the location and concentration of employment reflect the pattern of development laid down in the 19th Century along river valleys and canals, and any economic assessment of the Study Area must bear in mind this legacy of the Industrial Revolution. Despite the recent decline in what used to be the two major industries of the area - coal mining and cotton (diagrams 11 and 12) - this pattern has been perpetuated long after the original locational factors have ceased to apply by the widespread movement of manufacturing firms into former cotton mills. Whilst this has been important in providing alternative employment to off set the decline in textiles and in diversifying the employment structure generally, it has done nothing to improve the environment in these areas. In contrast more modern industrial enterprises requiring larger sites have been located, in some cases as the result of planning policies, on peripheral sites where accessibility is better and there is land available for expansion.

5/2 The only new large scale industrial development to have taken place in South East Lancashire since 1945 has been at Wythenshawe and Carrington, but elsewhere within the Study Area there has been little industrial renewal. This comparatively low level of new industrial development, which contrasts with Merseyside (diagram 13), is a reflection of the distribution of industry policy, bearing in mind that coupled with the sanctions of Industrial Development Certificates are the financial incentives of investment allowances and Regional Employment Premiums as applied to the Development Areas. The emphasis on unemployment figures as opposed to an overall economic assessment on a Regional basis inevitably has the effect that the Study Area is receiving little in the way of growth industries. The position is particularly unsatisfactory in those parts of South East Lancashire where there is a need to replace employment lost by the decline of cotton and mining and the North West Industrial Development Association has consistently called attention to these problems.

5/3 Since 1964 comparable data on public and

25

11 North West Region industrial growth

0

-=. --,

0 00

' ' ... -'

...... .

'-,

Steel

Chemicals

Oil refineries

Other industry

Liner train route

Electrification

26

' \ \ ----........

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0 .·.

0

\,.,,---

•

.·

....... ...... . . . . . .

• • A

0

12 North West Region mill closures

-=-.....

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•

,, -, ' \

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Existing mills 1966 (858)

Mills closed since 1951 (937)

1 dot =10 milts

• •

private investment in the Regions has been available and reveals that the North West has been at the bottom of the "league table"; Appendix D, Table 2 contains the comparative figures for 1966 whilst the general disposition of major industrial and urban development since the war is indicated in diagrams 14and15. The relatively high levels of investment in the West Midlands, East Anglia and the South East will be noted. The total annual rate of investment per capita in North West in 1966 was £45. 5. compared with £55. 4 in the South East, whilst the figures for Scotland and Wales were £57. 4 and £63. 4 respectively, reflecting the emphasis on support for these areas. If it is apparent that the North West Region has recorded the Lowest rate of investment in building in any of the Regions then the Study Area has, of course, fared comparatively badly as far as new industrial development is concerned even within the Region. It is unfortunate that these Regional statistics are not broken down to any sub-regional or Local scale since this is of fundamental importance where the Study Area is considered.

Recent changes in the structure of regional employment

5/4 In the 15 years between 1951 and 1966 (Table 6) employment in England and Wales grew by 10. 7% and in the North West by 1. 6%. During the period up to 1961, only the South East Lancashire conurbation showed nil growth, but in the following five years, employment appeared to decline in the Greater London and Merseyside conurbations as well, although it should be noted that unlike the 1951 and 1961 figures the 1966 figure is based only on a sample census. The decline in South East Lancashire is not solely the result of a low population increase. There have been changes in the age structure resulting in a decline in the working age groups whilst migration from the area, as we Ll as a decline in female employment, have played their part. These recent overall changes in employment within the Study Area reflect a significant outward movement of insured workers, amounting to some 3, 400 per annum between 1951 and 1961, rising to 6, 000 per annum between 1961 and 1966.

5/5 A comparison of the scale and nature of employment as between the Regions is shown in diagram 16. The conurbations together

13 North West Region pit closures

."'=... -~-,

' ' ,,,.-' '-,

\ \ \ ---- .....

Existing collieries 1966

Collieries closed since 1951

1,.,1-"'

:··

• •

,.)~t~TI~m::! / <::::::::::::::: ,,..... .:·:-:·:-:.:·:· ...... ' .......

0 0 0. I e I ...... . . . . . ' . ..... ·-::\Hf ·::

• •

27

14 England & Wales urban developments

New town

Expanded town

Overspill scheme

Note : Map shows development construction -1966

Standard Economic Planning

0 200

28

completed or under

Regions are shown

400m

• • .A

15 England & Wales industrial developments

Steel

Chemicals

Oil refineries

Electricity and Gas plants

Other industry

0 200

• • .A x

0

400 m

account for about 40% of the total employment in England and Wales. Employment in the Primary Sector, with the exception of Tyneside, is a very small proportion of the total in all the conurbations and is likely to decrease still further in the future. In contrast, the distribution of employment between Secondary and Tertiary Sectors reveals a diversity in the economic structure of the conurbations; the West Midlands, for example, derives its growing strength from manufacturing rather than service employment, whilst in Greater London, on the other hand, the Tertiary Sectior accounted for nearly three-quarters of the total employment.

5/6 For England and Wales the precentage of the working population engaged in the Primary and Secondary industries fell between 1961 and 1966 from 6. 5% to 5. 23, and from 36. 5% to 35. 23 respectively, whilst the percentage employed in the Tertiary Sector rose from 57. 2% to 59. 63. These trends are also reflected in the South East Lancashire conurbation though the decline in the Primary and Secondary Sectors has been slightly faster, l. 13 to 0. 93 and 48. 0% to 46. 0% respectively, whilst the growth in the Tertiary Sector has been at approximately the same rate as that for England and Wales, from 51. 0% to 53. 13. Despite these changes the conurbation still remains an important manufacturing area. It would appear that the significant changes in the Tertiary Sector have absorbed many of the jobs that the Secondary Sector has lost between 1961 and 1966. These changes are set out in

Table 6 Comparative employment changes 1951 /66

Employme!'lt Employment 1951 J:961

England and Wales 20,336,000 21,694,000

North West 3, 130, 000 3,170,000

Greater London 4,914,000 4,287,000

W. Midlands 1, 111, 000 1,197,000

S. E. Lanes. 1.237,000 1, 231, 000

Merseyside 627, 000 638, 000

W. Yorkshire 834, 000 852,000

Tyneside 371,000 385,000

Source: Census Occupation Tables 1951, 1961 and 1966

Table 7.

Study Area - economic structure 1959/66

5/7 The existing employment structure of the Study Area is shown in Appendix D Tables 3-7 and the changes which have taken place over the two three-year periods, from 1959 to 1962, and from 1962 to 1965 in the various sub-divisions of the Study Area may be analysed for the three major employment sectors. *

Primary industry

5/8 The decline in Primary Industry for the period under consideration was confined almost exclusively to the coal mining industry representing the closure by the l\iarional Coal Board of many of the unprofitable pits in the area. Between 1959 and 1966, there was a loss of 10, 000 jobs, distributed fairly evenly between the Leigh and Manchester sub-divisions, although the fall in the Manchester sub-division took place between 1959 and 1962 and in the Leigh sub-divisior between 1962 and 1965. Since then there have been further closures at Bradford and Mosley Common and employment in coal mining, once a major employer, is now insignificant.

* For the purpose of this analysis, employment exchanges have been amalgamated into groupings which most closely correspond to the areal sub­divisions indentified earlier in the analysis of population change (See Appendix D Table 1)

Per cent Per cent Per cent clmug.e in chany,e in change in

Employment emplolment emp oliment population 1966 1951/ 1 1951/ 6 1951/66

22,513,000 + 6.68 + 10.71 + 7.72

3, 180, 000 + 1. 28 + 1. 6 + 2. 61

4, 079, 000 - 12. 76 - 16. 99 - 8.11

1,225,000 + 7.74 + 10.26 + 6.12

1,204,000 - 0.49 - 2.67 - o. 78

619,000 + 1. 75 + 1. 28 - 3.46

846,000 + 2.16 + 1.44 + o. 89

383,000 + 3. 77 + 3.23 - 0.48

29

16 England & Wales employment structure

Secondary industr y

5/9 A Loss of 30, 000 jobs was experienced by this sector in the period 1959-1966, but there is still a concentration of employment in manufacturing within the Study Area, particularly in engineering and textiles. In the case of the Latter there has been a massive decline of 47, 800 jobs in seven years and there are signs that the process of rationalisation is not yet complete. The clothing and vehicle industries were the only others to experience a Loss in employment within the Study Area. The clothing industry suffered a much Less marked decline than the associated textile industry, and there seems to be no fundamental reason why clothing should not hold its own in the future, providing that obsolete and badly situated premises can be successfully relocated. Employment in leather goods and timber remained static, whilst all other groups in the Secondary Sector showed an actual gain in employment. Employment in the engineering industry showed the biggest relative rise of all amounting to 9% or 14, 500 jobs. Although this increase is far behind the National figure of 18% for the same period the growth of the industry is, nevertheless, Likely to continue in the area.

Table 7 Employment in industrial groupings 1961 and 1966 (%)

Primary Secondary Tertiary

England/Wales A 6. 50 36 . 50 57. 20 B 5.24 35. 15 59 . 61

North West A 3.15 44. 32 52 . 53 B 2.55 42. 13 55 . 32

Greater London A 0. 34 32. 66 67. 00 B 0.25 29. 60 70.15

West Midlands A 0.44 58.35 41. 21 B 0.28 55.21 44.51

S. E. Lancashire A 1.07 47. 96 50.97 B 0.85 46.02 53.13

Merseyside A 0.59 34.14 65,47 B 0.32 33.53 66.15

W. Yorkshire A 2.36 54.51 43.13 B 1. 90 47. 92 50.18

Tyneside A 4.43 39. 38 59.19 B 3.39 37.36 59. 25

Note: A represents 1961 figures, B - 1966 figures

source: Census 1961 and 1966 - Industry Tables

30

Primary

Manufacturing

Service

Study Area(included in North West)

• 0

(!) Insured workers --a 5 mi llion

2 million

Note :Figures are tor 1963

Ministry of Labour Regions are used

Source: Ministry of Labour mid- year returns

See appendix D Table 1 Standard Industria l classification index

0 200 400m

5/10 There were, however, considerable variations locally within these overall changes. Between 1959 and 1962 employment in the Secondary Industries showed a growth trend in most of the sub-divisions, particularly Stockport (4, 000) and Altrincham (1, 700) where this growth would appear to be the result of the expansion of existing concerns, whilst it was allied to population growth in these areas. The Manchester sub-division gained 2, 700 jobs in this period, but the City itself showed a slight loss; it must be remembered, however, that in the same period the City's population began to fall as the slum clearance programme was accelerated.

printing, food processing and chemicals are significant in Manchester. The aircraft industry is important at Bolton and Oldham, and also at Woodford which is just outside the Study Area.

Tertiary industry

5/13 This sector, which is of significance throughout the Study Area, has increased overall since 1959 and has provided employment for an additional 43, 000 people. All the sub-divisions have shared in this increase which has been most marked in Manchester, Stockport, Altrincham, Oldham and Bolton; it is notable that the last four showed low employment figures in this sector in 1959. The greatest absolute employment increase

5/ 11 After 1962 there was a marked change in was in professional and scientific services and trends; only the Leigh sub-division showed an whilst this was common to all sub-divisions no increase in the Secondary Sector, and this, less than 19, 500 of the overall increase of 32, 000 coupled with the increase from 1959 to 1962, occurred in the Manchester sub-division. went a long way towards alleviating the decline Employment in the miscellaneous services group in coal mining. The greatest reduction in (which includes hotels, laundries, hairdressers, employment in this period was within the etc.) was spread widely throughout the Study Manchester sub-division which lost 24, 000 jobs Area and showed an increase of about 10, 000 of which 19, 000 were from the City. The jobs of which the Manchester sub-division A ltrincham and Stockport sub-divisions remained claimed about half. stable over this period.

5/ 14 Despite an overall increase, the Tertiary 5/ 12 Despite these changes, local specialisation Sector did, however, show absolute losses of and the concentration of Linked groups of employment in certain groups; employment in industries is still characteristic of the Study transport and communications dropped by Area. The engineering and electrical industry 5, 500, distribution (both wholesale and retail) for example, is the Largest manufacturing by 4, 600 though this was confined to the Bury, employer and occupies a dominant position in the Leigh and Manchester sub-divisions. Apart employment structure of the southern sub- from Stockport, all the sub-divisions shared in divisions with electrical machinery, radio and the fall of 1, 500 in the numbers employed in electronic apparatus in Trafford Park, machine public administration, (which includes tools at Altrincham and industrial engines, employment in the armed forces). plant and steel work at Stockport. In the north and west of the area, Bolton and Heywood reveal a concentration in the manufacture of textile machinery whilst the manufacture of insulated wire and cables in predominant in Leigh. The towns to the north of Manchester -Bolton, Bury, Oldham and Rochdale - specialise in spinning and weaving, together with woollens and worsteds at Bury and Mossley. On the other hand, the making up and finishing of textiles occurs in the Manchester sub-division, particularly around the centre of Manchester itself where it is closely associated with the clothing industry. Other notable concentrations of specilaised industry are the manufacture of hats and caps at Denton, paper and board manufacturing at Bury and Stockport, while

5/.15 An analysis of the two three-year periods reveals different trends. Whilst all the sub­divisions gained employment in the Tertiary Sector between .1959 and 1962, Manchester, Bury and Leigh actually Lost employment during the three subsequent years; and in the case of the Manchester sub-division, which lost half of this increase, virtually all was from the City itself. However, it would be a mistake at this stage to draw any general conclusions bearing in mind the limitations of the figures available and the relatively short periods compared.

31

Unemployment in the Study Area

5/ 16 Unemployment in the Study Area between 1959 and 1966 remained at a relatively low level, below that of the North West Region and, apart from January, 1959, consistently below the national average (Appendix D, Table 8). There were only slight variations in unemployment between the various sub­divisions; Bolton, Leigh and Oldham tended to have rather higher rates than A ltrincham and Bury which had the lowest, with the Manchester, Rochdale, and Stockport sub­divisions lying between the two extremes. Unemployment in the City of Manchester was fractionally above that for the Study Area as a whole. It must be remembered that many of the employees in the textile trade are women who do not always register as unemployed. The overall decline in cotton textiles is not therefore fully reflected in the unemployment figures for the sub-divisions where contraction of the industry has been most acute.

5/17 The low figures in the Manchester, Stockport and A ltrincham sub-divisions are undoubtedly a reflection of the greater diversification of employment in these areas1

coupled with the concentration in A Ltrincham and Stockport of the newer growth industries, e.g. engineering and electrical goods. In the sub-divisions of Bury, Altrincham and Stockport, the number of unemployed between 1959 and 1966 was exceeded for most of the time by the number of vacancies.

5/ 18 It is evident that now and in the future there are parts of the Study Area which, as a result of their industrial structure and prospects, are Likely to be more susceptible to unemployment than others. In these areas further diversification of the economic base, and a reversal of trends towards contraction in labour demand, require particular attention. However, unemployment rates are Likely to remain low in both the Study Area and the City of Manchester assuming normal economic conditions and also on the assumption that current rates of migration will continue. Voluntary migration is, of course, a reflection of the general attractiveness of an area, including job opportunity, the standard of living conditions and the quality of general environment.

32

Employment in Manchester

5/ 19 The resident population of Manchester fe 11 by 50, 000 between 1959 and 1966 and in the same period employment in the City declined by 19, 000. In 1966, there were were about 384, 000 people employed within Manchester, of whom about 160, 000 worked in the Central Area. Within a radius of two miles of Manchester Town Hall (which includes parts of Salford and Stretford) there is a working population of about 280, 000 or one quarter of the total employment in the Study Area. It is clear that quite apart from the concentration of employment in the Central Area, the inner areas account for a very large proportion of the City's employment. The journey to work and attendant problems of congestion and car parking are particularly relevant where the City Centre is concerned, whilst in the surrounding areas, a high concentration of employment and unfit dwellings may be found within a physical context that is essentially nineteenth century and obsolete.

5/20 Since the closure of Bradford Colliery the amount of primary industry remaining within the City is virtually negligible. Secondary, or manufacturing industry, in Manchester has been adversely affected by the trends observed within the Study Area and employment dropped by over 20, 000 between !959 and 1966 - two thirds of the total fall for the Study Area. The largest decline was in vehicle manufacturing - 5, 000 jobs - resulting primarily from the closure of the Gorton Tank and Beyer Peacock Locomotive engineering works; textile employment fell by 6, 300 and clothing and footwear by 8, 100. Taken together these groups accounted for almost all of the loss. On the other hand engineering showed an increase in employment of more than 1, 500 which represents an increase of 4% in the labour force compared with an increase of 9% for the Study Area, and 18% for the country. It would appear that those manufacturing industries which are declining in the City are losing employment at a faster rate than in the Study Area, whilst the main growth industry, engineering, is growing at only half the rate experienced in the Study Area and less than a quarter of the National rate. Despite these changes, the largest employers in the City in 1966 were the engineering industries (40, 000),

clothing (22, 000) and the paper and printing industry ( 19, 600) out of a total employment in manufacturing of 141, 000.

5/21 Although the City only showed a modest net increase of 3, 000 jobs in the Tertiary Sector between 1959 and 1962, this should be looked at in the context of the sharp drop of 12, 000 jobs in distribution, reflecting the declining role which wholesale storage plays in the City Centre. Of the total increase within the Study Area of professional and scientific services, 423 (13, 500 jobs) took place within the City, together with 263 (2, 500 jobs) of the increase of miscellaneous services and 533 of the increase in banking and finance. This trend will continue as a result of decisions which have already been taken; for example the growth of the Higher Education Precinct and the establishment of accommodation on a large scale for Government Departments. Formerly, the City of Ma.nchester was the major Regional manufacturing centre; its role as the metropolitan centre for the Region's higher order services is now being emphasised.

Future levels of employment in the Study Area

5/22 To predict with a fair degree of accuracy the future employment level in the Study Area is a formidable problem which necessitates

Table 8 Employment in the Study Area 1981

A Population

B Activity rate

C Residents economically active (A +B)

D Not inward commuting

Working population in Study Area ( C + D) (with no allowances for unemployment)

Notes:

Census

1961

2, 564, 000

50. &'lo

1, 297. 000

28,900

1,326,000

Census

1966

2,574,000

5 0, fY1/o

1, 287, 000

30, 000 (Est)

1,317,000

1) Trend projection of decline in Activity Rates 1961-65

the consideration of many factors, the most difficult of which is forecasting the level of National activity and its likely affect on the Area in the years ahead. There has been an attempt to project the likely employment total within the Study Area in 1981 as part of the SELNEC transportation Study''. All that will be undertaken here is an attempt to project a range of employment levels in the Study Area based upon various assumptions of activity rates and population totals. No attempt is made to estimate 1981 employment within the sub-divisions of the Study Area, although future employment in Manchester will be considered later.

5/23 Table 8 shows how different assumptions about the decline in activity rates, when applied to the population estimates for 1981 as forecast respectively by the Local Authorities themselves and by the Transportation Study~ give a probable range in the working population of between 1, 346, 000 and 1, 248, 000 respectively-a difference of 98, 000 jobs. In both 1961 and 1966 the Study Area had an activity rate approximately 3. 7% higher than the National average, and if it is assumed

*SELNEC Transportation Study Techi1.ical Working Paper No. 3 - Planning Data: Existing and Forecast. September, 1968.

Local Authorities SELNEC projection Transportation Study

1981 1981

2, 790, 000 2,707,000

1) 47. fY1/o 2) 44. fJJ/o 1) 47.fYl/o 2) 44. 8"/o

1) 1,311,000 2) 1, 250, 000 1) 1, 272, 000 2) 1, 213, 000

35,000 35, 000

1) 1,346,000 2) 1, 285, 000 ~) 1,307, 000 2) 1, 248, 000

2) Ministry of Labour forecasts of nationalActicity Rates in 1981 applied to 1981 age/sex structure of Study Area "Local Authorities Projection" is the summation of the Local Authorities own projections as submitted for the S£LNEC Transportation Study "SELNEC Transportation Study" projection as determined by the Economic Base Method (see footnote to par< .. 26).

33

that this difference will be maintained, an activity rate for the Study Area of 473 is obtained for 1981 (assumption 1. in Table 8). This activity rate produces for both the Local Authority and Transportation Study population totals an employment Level of 1, 346, 000 or 1, 307, 000 respectively i.e. plus 29, 000 or minus 10, 000 difference from the 1966 Level of 1, 317, 000'~.

5/24 If the Local Authority projection of 2, 790, 000 should materialise and if the Area's activity rate in 1981 was still to be appreciably above the National average (at 4 73) then a slight increase in new jobs would be required (29, 000) to serve this population. Should the increase in jobs not reach the figure of 29, 000, however, it is unlikely that the effect would be unemployment on any scale since the employment deficit will probably fall in the female sector who have a tendency not to register as unemployed. If the lower population figure (2, 707, 000) were to be adopted no increase in jobs in the Study Area would be required - indeed a loss of a further 10, 000 jobs from the 1966 figure would result in an employment Level comparable with that in 1966.

5/25 The second assumption on activity rates is that the activity rate of the Study Area will fall at a much faster rate than the National one, so that by 1981 it would more r.losely correspond with the National figure to give only a +O. 33 difference compared with a 3. 73 difference in 1961. Applying this figure (44. 83) to the two population levels would give a range of jobs in 1981 of

* It should be noted that there is a discrepancy between the Census figure and the 1966 Employment Figure quoted earlier for the Study Area. The previous figure was based upon the Ministry of Labour's returns which omit certain classes of employment, e.g. civil servants and self­employed persons, etc. In addition there are also discrepancies between the Census definition of an employed person and the Ministry of Labour's definition, the former including part-time workers, casual workers etc., omitted by the Latter. Together these account for the difference between this employment figure for 1966 and the one used previously.

34

1, 248, 000 to 1, 285, 000 or a drop from the 1966 figure ( 1, 317, 000) of minus 69, 000 to minus 32, 000. The overall conclusion must be, therefore, that should activity rates in the Study Area fall substantially up to 1981, then there is like Ly to be a surplus of jobs unless there is a Large outward movement of employment.

Future levels of employment in Manchester

5/26 A proportion of the decline in jobs which Manchester has experienced over the past few years has been the result of the City's redevelopment programme, although the absence of comparative figures makes the exact effect difficult to gauge. The outward movement of jobs is likely to continue, albeit at a considerably slower rate in the future, until the redevelopment programme is completed. It is likely that premises employing 43, 000 persons (outside the City Centre) will be affected in this way up to 1981; this figure does, however, include about 16, 000 employed in shops, much of which represents part time employment. Nevertheless a high proportion of this employment should be relocated within the City; the Corporation is itself purchasing considerable areas of land for industrial relocation and coupled with the land in pri:vate ownership which is expected to be developed by 1981, over 200 additional acres of Land should be available for commerce and industry compared with those actually occupied at the present time by going concerns. These areas would have an employment potential for approximately 16, 000 people and on the basis of enquiries so far received for new sites it is likely that two-thirds would be engaged in manufacturing industry.

5/27 Within the City Centre perhaps as many as 20, 000 jobs could be affected by redevelopment proposals in the period up to 1981, most of which will be undertaken by private developers. As redevelopment is completed it can be expected that these jobs will at Least be replaced, whilst the anticipated expansion of government offices and those of public concerns alone could provide employment for a further 5, 000 people. The expansion of the University and Technical Colleges is expected to provide something of the order of 6, 000 new jobs by 1981. Another

major source of new jobs will be in the District Centres where approximately 6, 000 additional jobs could be created, mainly of course in shopping but also in offices. More detailed research into the effects of redevelopment proposals in the City is being undertaken and will be dealt with in a later report.

5/28 The overall effects of these redevelopment proposals could be to reduce the employment level of the City from the 403, 000 in 1965 to 380, 000 or so in 1981 on the assumption that only the 20, 000 jobs affected by redevelopment in the Central Area are replaced. There are, however, certain other areas in the City Centre which offer potential for considerable additional employment. Although this figure does not take account of the voluntary movement of firms wishing to leave the City coupled with such factors as automation and more efficient management and administration, it does seem reasonable to anticipate a level of between 370, 000 and 380, 000 in the City by 1981. The importance of the role played by the Manchester Central Area as a source of employment is emphasiced and its prosperity and employment potential in the future must be influenced by the extent to which both its attractiveness and accessibility can be maintained and developed.

5/29 If voluntary migration were to continue at the rate of recent years, it might be difficult to substantiate an argument on employment grounds alone for the encouragement of new industry to enter the Study Area, since the declining activity rate could be expected to counter-balance the reduction in the number of jobs up until 1981. Much of the existing industry, however, is not up to modern standards and the importance of renewing outworn industrial premises, and in some cases their relocation on better sites cannot be over-emphasised; this is necessary to provide the Area with modern competitive facilities that will retain and enable the best use to be made of its skills and human assets.

5/30 If, on the other hand, voluntary migration is reduced in the future to half its present level, this would produce a population of 2, 874, 000, a number well within the capacity of the Study Area in terms of housing

sites. Such a population would require 69, 000 more jobs than in 1966 to sustain an activity rate of 473 or 5, 000 more jobs if the activity rate were to fall to 44. 83.

5/31 The analysis of recent trends has revealed the lack of any major growth in the existing industrial structure, despite the absorption of the decline in the textile industry. The increase of jobs required, should there be any substantial reduction in voluntary migration, could only result from the movement into the area of new jobs. This must, however, be associated with the renewal of the outworn industrial fabric which has undoubtedly contributed towards the recent loss in Secondary Sector jobs.

5/32 The problem facing the Study Area in the future, should reduced voluntary migration necessitate more jobs, would be the competition which it would meet from the Development Areas, North-East Lancashire and New Towns at Leyland/Chorley and Warrington. The financial incentives available to these areas would almost certainly siphon off new industry coming into South East Lancashire (and indeed some of the inherent industrial growth of the Study Area itself) unless similar incentives are offered to counter-balance these. In other words, therefore, there would have to be a modification of National economic policies should voluntary migration from the Study Area be reduced.

5/33 There would appear to be, therefore, two alternatives for the future development of the Study Area, both of which must be considered in the national context. (i) Any reduction in voluntary migration

would necessitate a much higher investment in both the improvement of the environment and the infrastructure, together with financial incentives which would lead to the provision of new jobs on a large scale. (ii) The continuation of the existing policy of encouraging new jobs only in Development Areas and New Towns, would be the acceptance of voluntary migration from the Study Area at either the present or an increased level, and the consequent provision for this in other parts of both the North West Region and the country in general.

35

17 Study Area shopping hinterlands

Manchester hinterlands

Gradel

,...--..

r G rade 2

Grade3

'--"

Other grade2 Hinterlands in the Study Area Source(Hegional shopping centres in Nor1h West England1

36

Shopping

6/ 1 The Study Area boundary does not coincide with the spheres of influence of the various shopping centres within the Conurbation. The dominant role of the metropolitan centre is discussed in the City Centre Report and it is important to appreciate that its influence extends far beyond the Conurbation boundaries, and throughout the North-West. Moreover, it is related to a large and growing hinterland whose population has more and more money to spend on higher grade goods.

6/2 Compared with the general picture nationally and in other Conurbations, the Study Area would appear to contain a much higher number of relatively less prosperous shops ; the Level of turnover, and population served, per shop are both low as Table 9 indicates. Although the number of shops fell by about 3, 000 between 1950 and 1961, the ratio of units to population is still higher, and the average size of unit smaller, than in other Conurbations. The implementation of large scale shopping schemes in the town centres and at district level is gradually transforming this situation, but there still remain many older shopping centres with inadequate sales space and storage, without car parking facilities, and in many cases no longer advantageously located; these include some of those, in Manchester and elsewhere, spread along the major traffic routes.

6/3 The character and pattern of shopping centres is hierarchical and they may be classified according to the amount and type of trade or facilities offered. The report prepared by the Manchester University School of Town and Country Planning'' has contributed to the understanding of this structure, and Appendix E, Table 1 based on that Study's method of classification, illustrates a break­down by grade and type of trade. Whilst it would be misleading to assume rigid divisions between the grades, since there appears to be a continuum from highest to lowest, the breakdown is valuable becaus~ it illustrates the overriding dependence of the Study Area on Manchester's City Centre for Class l speciality trade; it also provides an important indication of the relative competing povyer of other centres, of which Bolton appears to be particularly

':' "Regional Shopping Centres in North-West England" (The "Haydock Report") Vol. l .

37

strong. The catchment area or hinterland of a major shopping centre will differ markedly for various types of trade; Diagram 17 illustrates broadly the three hinterlands of Manchester also referred to in Appendix E, Table 1. As far as the City Centre is concerned, there are many, though less frequent trips made from beyond the Grade l hinterland, and these are relevant to the assessment of shopping requirements.

square feet of floor space devoted to retail trade, and the population in the Study Area and its hinterland was about 3. 5 million; the turnover /floor space ratio was therefore about £15 per square foot gross. On the basis of certain assumptions (described in Appendix E, Table 2), it is suggested that total retail expenditure may rise to £600, 000, 000 at current prices by 1981, and the population served to 4 million. An initial attempt has been made to see whether there is any

6/4 Any attempt to assess the future number, correlation between the amount of space distribution and space requirements of shops in envisaged in current shopping proposals and the Study Area is fraught with difficulty, and what might appear necessary up to 1981 on the many inter-related factors need to be considered. basis of the assumptions referred to above. Apart from the difficulty in foreseeing with any The major proposals for shopping within the degree of accuracy social and economic trends, area would provide for an increase of some centres compete with each other and the 3 million sq. ft. within the Conurbation, and dynamics of urban change may influence very there may be further shopping proposals put considerably the existing shopping centre forward in the years up to 1981, though they hierarchy. Nevertheless, there are certain would be unlikely to provide substantial fundamental ralationships which can be additional,as opposed to replacement facilities. established between the population to be served, its spending power, and the turnover per square foot of shopping space. The relevance of these factors in attempting to anticipate the likely level of provision up to 1 981 in the Study Area is discussed more fully in Appendix E, Table 2.

6/5 In 1961, the total shopping expenditure in the Study Area was approximately £381, 000, 000; it is estimated that there were about 25 million

Table 9 Structure of retail trade

Population

Great Britain 1950 49, 004, 459

1961 51,250,074

S. E. Lancashire 1950 2,416, 742

1961 2,427,173

Merseyside 1950 1, 393, 616

1961 1, 385, 702

Manchester 1950 703, 082

1961 661, 791

Note:

6/6 This would give a total in the region of 28 million square feet in 1981; which would mean that the turnover/floor space ratio would be around £21 per square foot. This is a very small increase overall in the turnover/floor space ratio, and falls below estimates made for various parts of the country of economically viable Leve ls for that date. Probably average turnover in

Estab. Turnover persons Turnover (£000) per shop per shop(£)

518, 849 4, 779, 379 94. 9 9, 212

508, 529 8,297, 949 100.8 16 , 318

34,782 255,500 69.5 7,346

31,720 381, 155 76.5 12, 016

13,441 115, 121 103. 7 8,565

12,800 213, 081 108. 3 16, 647

9,702 109,301 71. 0 11, 038

8,542 140, 116 77.4 16, 403

These figures are derived from the Census of Distribution, and refer to total retail trade. The Censuses have been adjusted for the difference in their scope, but not for non-response.

38

1981 should be in the region of £25 to £30 per square foot overall, though the actual level will depend on the increase in the efficiency of retailing, which in turn will be influenced by the amount of redevelopment and modernisation that has taken place. In other words as more shopping redeve Lopment takes place, the efficiency factor should rise. If turnover were £25 per square foot, the amount of floor space required to support the anticipated expenditure would be about 24 million square feet, while if turnover were £30 per square foot, the amount required would be only 20 million square feet.

6/7 It should be emphasised that these figures are notional, and represent averages of a wide range of conditions, and that with incomplete data there are many difficulties involved in prediction. Furthermore, this theoretical analysis does not take into account the qualitative aspects of shopping provision; the broader planning, locational, and technical requirements of shopping schemes will also play a significant role in relation to the success or otherwise of projects.

6/8 The result is clearly to indicate the possibility of over-provision of shopping floor space in the Study Area as a whole, as each centre tries to increase its share of a limited cake. In fact, what would be likely to happen is that some schemes would be more profitable whilst others in less favoured locations might fail to produce an economic return and even remain untenanted. The relative strength of different locations may well be affected by the timing of development; schemes that are built first have the chance to become established and can influence the pattern of later development. Until there is an agreed policy within the Study Area, against which to assess major shopping, there will be no objective method of securing from a planning point of view a rational, convenient, and efficient hierarchy of shopping facilities.

6/9 Manchester City Centre has been examined separately, (Appendix E, Table 2). The conclusion here is that, bearing in mind that the greater the amount of redevelopment the higher the efficiency, and therefore the Less the need for extra floor space, over provision could occur, if the City Centre could not increase its share of total Study Area trade. However, the

City Centre Map emphasises the strength of its Regional position, and it seems reasonable to suggest that the Centre, related as it is to a large and growing hinterland whose population will have greater disposable income, has considerable potential for growth - particularly since much of this income will go higher grade goods, in the provision of which it is dominant.

6/ 10 Crucial factors in determining the extent to which the Central Area will increase its share of total conurbation trade are firstly the improvement of accessibility to the Centre, secondly the provision of adequate and conveniently situated car parking for shoppers, and thirdly the development of the Central Area so that it is (in the words of the City Centre Map), "not only convenient and efficient, but also outstandingly inviting and attractive". Measures to deal with these problems are directed towards ensuring that the City Centre retains and extends its metropolitan retailing functions in the future; these are summarised in the City Centre Map and include an overall car parking policy, which places emphasis on facilities for shoppers, together with the improvement of public transport.

6/ 11 Reference has already been made to the relatively inadequate and badly Located facilities in the older parts of the conurbation -which of course applies to the City itself. As redevelopment proceeds the opportunity is being grasped to relocate shopping facilities in District Centres, which will cover the Grade 2 to 3 range, whilst local every day shopping facilities are also being incorporated with housing. This new shopping is largely a replacement for the ribbon development which previously existed along the main roads, although it is necessary to take into account that this will be new and efficient accommodation which to succeed will require to be more intensively utilised.

39

40

Recreation

7/1 The terms leisure and recreation require definition. Leisure is residual time; the individual's time which is not spent working, eating or sleeping. Recreation is one particular way of spending this leisure time and involves some kind of physical or mental activity.

7 /2 Increasing pressure on existing recreation facilities, and the demand for the provision of additional facilities, will take place in the future as a result of a number of factors, among the more important being increases in population and incomes, the shortening of the working week and changing desires influenced by better educational opportunities and greater ease of mobility.

Recreational facilities in the Study Area

7/3 Appendix F, Table 1 summarises the present provision of recreational facilities in the Study Area. These figures are based on surveys which were undertaken by the local authorities in the area, following the Joint Circular issued by the Ministry of Housing and Local Government (49/64) and the Department of Education and Science ( 11/64) in which Local Authorties were asked to review existing recreation and sport provision and likely future requirements.

7 I 4 The provision of facilities in the sub­divisions can be compared with the average figures for the whole of the Study Area. This comparison shows that the Altrincham and Stockport sub-divisions possess a provision greater than these average figures, whilst the Oldham, Manchester, Leigh and Rochdale sub­divisions show a consistent under-provision of the facilities listed in the table. None of the sub-divisional figures, however, compare favourably with the National Playing Fields Association standard of six acres of recreational open space and one acre of ornamental public space per thousand of the population, although this standard may be open to question, certainly in relation to the practicability of achieving it in built-up areas within a reasonable period of time and also to the dual use of educational facilities and the changing pattern of recreational needs.

7 /5 Local authorities in the Study Area have, however, adopted standards approaching this;

41

for example, Lancashire and Cheshire County Councils both have a standard in their Development Plans of six acres of recreational space per 1, 000 population (comprised of four acres of playing fields, l! acres of ornamental gardens and parks, and! acre of children's ;,>lay park). The Development Plan for Manchester C. B. envisages a standard approaching five acres of recreational space per 1, 000 population(approximately 2. 5 acres for organised games, two acres of ornamental space, and! an acre for children's play parks). This was an approximate general standard for the whole City, although a degree of unbalanced distribution was involved and it was accepted that a lower standard would have to be applied in the inner redevelopment areas.

7 /6 The figures of existing provision in Appendix F, Table l illustrate the difficulty of implementing these standards in practice, and this is further related to the limited amount of investment which is available for this type of facility.

Recreational facilities in Manchester CB

7 /7 The provision of recreational facilities within the City is summarised in Appendix F, Table 2 and these can be judged against the Study Area averages. Figu:r:es for Liverpool C. B. are also included in the table, as it represents the other major city of comparable size in the North West.

7 /8 Compared to the Study Area averages, the City possesses a higher provision of public parks, but an under-provision of public playing fields and private playing fields, though the City's overall open space provision is slightly better than that of Liverpool. The figures, however, mask the poor distribution of open space within the City. The older inner areas show a marked deficiency compared to the outer areas. The 20 inner wards of the City, which account for 443 of the total population, possess only 153 of the total open space. Even in the outer areas, the southern parts of the City have a much more favourable standard of distribution compared to the northern. Heaton Park in the extreme North West of the City is of Regional significance and with its area of nearly 600 acres, not

42

only accounts for much of the total open space provision in the northern areas, but also for the fact that the City's total overall figure for the provision of public parks exceeds the Study Area average.

Future policies in the Study Area

7 /9 The factors outlined at the beginning of the section which are leading to increasing demand for more recreational facilities, coupled with increasing mobility as car ownership levels rise, mean that the recreational potential present in the Study Area's existing open space must be fully realised. It follows that increasing emphasis must be directed to the possibility of reclaiming and rehabilitating the derelict and unused land in both the inner and outer areas for recreational use.

7I10 A number of schemes have already been proposed to provide additional Regional facilities, e.g. in the Croal and Mersey Valleys. The initiation of such schemes has been given considerable impetus by the Countryside Act with its emphasis on the creation of country parks, and both Lancashire and Cheshire County Councils are considering proposals to establish such parks which will serve the Study Area. Many of the facilities for the growth recreational activities outlined in the Pilot National Recreation Survey - sailing, fishing, riding and the rather less well defined recreational activities such as walking and driving for pleasure - can be provided in such country parks. At present, the only parks of a regional scale are at Lyme Park, Styal Woods, Alderley Edge, and Tatton Park in the south, and Heaton Park, and Lever Park at Rivington in the north.

7/11 The Study Area is fortunate, however, in having a number of National Parks and areas of considerable natural beauty close at hand, notably, the Peak District, the Yorkshire Dales, and the Forest of Bowland, and other areas which are becoming increasingly accessible as road communications improve, particularly the Lake District and North Wales.

Future policies in Manchester CB

7 /12 Future policies in the City are aimed at

rectifying the deficiencies in the amount and distribution of open space. Redevelopment affords the opportunity to increase the open space standards in the inner areas of the City, with a particular emphasis on the creation of more children's play spaces which are seriously lacking and a standard of ! an acre for 1000 population is being implemented. Nevertheless, redevelopment allows only a limited amount of additional open space to be provided within the redeveloped housing areas. Thus the City has proposals for the rehabilitation of river valleys and canals, and the reclamation of derelict land to form part of an integrated and linked open space system. These proposals provide the scope for a very considerable rise in the City's overall open space provision in terms of figures; in addition the flexibility and impact of a continuous system, as against a series of small detached areas, is significant. The timing of the operation is very dependent on co-ordination of tipping and availability of finance to consolidate the acquisition and development of those areas which do not require extensive tipping programmes.

7/13 Further study and research will need to be undertaken to decide what facilities should be created in both the newly created and existing open areas. Increasing affluence and mobility are helping not only to change public tastes but to make them more sophisticated. To meet these new tastes, a change in the character of public open space appears to be required, breaking away from the conventional and perhaps rather Victorian concepts and leading, in certain strategic locations, to the provision of facilities such as those provided by Copenhagen's Tivoli Gardens, with other areas set aside for quiet and relaxed enjoyment.

Cultural and entertainment facilities

7 /14 Manchester is one of the country's leading provincial centres for entertainment and cultural facilities. Its ready accessibility at the centre of the Study Area allows it to provide facilities not only for the 2. 5 million people within the Conurbation but also for a much wider catchment area of some 6-7 million people in the Region. Consequently, there is a wide range of these facilities in the City, many of which can only

operate efficiently and economically at a Regional scale. Examples of this are the City's four principal theatres, and the Halle Orchestra. More emphasis is also being placed on the City Centre cinemas as the number of suburban cinemas declines under the competition of television. The recently opened National Film Theatre strengthens the City Centre's provision of this type of entertainment.

7/15 It is essential that these forms of leisure activity, whose qualities should be improved wherever possible, should be supported and encouraged, maintaining and strengthening the City's interdependent relationship between its commercial, industrial and cultural functions. This linkage is typical of cities such as Manchester which are the cores of metropolitan regions providing unique and attractive qualities. The maintenance and expansion of these cultural activities is not only significant in terms of Manchester's Regional role, but also in providing career outlets for the many drama and music students who study at the various further education institutions, both in the City and the Study Area.

7/16 The City Centre Plan in recognising the City's cultural role, proposes the establishment of an Arts Centre embodying amongst other proposals, the provision of a new Opera House and a new headquarters for the B. B. C. At a more modest level the number and variety of concerts, lectures and talks taking place, both at lunch time and in the evening, serving a wide range of minority tastes, are further manifestations of cultural facilities operating at a regional scale. The core should always be able to meet the demands for changing tastes in entertainment such as have been seen in recent years in the growth of discotheques, night clubs and other establishments.

7/17 The remainder of the Study Area should not be overlooked, there being a diversity of cultural and entertainment facilities serving more localised populations, the newly-built Octagon theatre at Bolton being an outstanding example.

43

18 England & Wales future transport network

r •

r '

r,

r '

Motorway Existing. and under construction

Proposed motorway ---Major trunk road

Major railway network

0 100 200m

44

Transport

8/1 As long ago as 1926 the first exercise in Regional planning affecting an area greater than the SE LNE C Area was carried out and even at that stage the effects of traffic congestion, and the importance of highway planning in a Regional context were recognised. At the present time, a comprehensive Land Use/Transportation Study for the SELNEC Area, which corresponds with the Study Area, is being undertaken and the first results were expected in mid-1969. Although the essential inter-relationship between Land Use and Transportation Planning is important, both in the Regional and sub-regional context of Manchester, the subject is being dealt with in this report only in very general terms because of the much more detailed research and information that will be available from the Transportation Study itself.

Regional pattern of communications

8/2 The industrial history of South Lancashire has resulted in the main pattern of communications in relation to the Greater Manchester Area being east/west, in particular along the line of the Mersey Valley. The first main link came with the extension of navigation from the Mersey along the Irwe 11 and then this was followed by the Liverpool to Manchester Railway, the first steam passenger railway in the world. In 1894 came the opening of the Manchester Ship Canal, which resulted in Manchester becoming the third port of the country (in terms of volume of goods handled), and which has had far reaching effects in diversifying the economy of the area and lessening its dependence on the traditional cotton and textile industries. In the nineteen thirties the first new major trunk road in the Region was constructed, the Liverpool/East Lancashire Road, connecting the two Conurbations, and which stimulated industrial growth along its length.

8/3 The first major departure from the traditional emphasis in direction was the National route of the M6 Motorway which runs north/ south forming a spine through the Region, (Diagram 18 ); the potential for growth of this motorway has greatly occupied the attention of planners in recent years and it has been a major factor, certainly in the siting of the Central Lancashire New Town, whilst other proposals that have been put forward for town

45

expansion have been influenced by its potential.

8/ 4 A major deficiency, however, has been the lack of good road Links from Greater Manchester and Merseyside to M6. As far as Manchester is concerned, the construction of a new Link southwards via the Princess Parkway and M56 is imminent, whilst the new Motorway (M61) from Manchester to Preston will give very much improved accessibility in a northerly direction. The reversion to the traditional pattern of improving east/west communications through the Region will take place when the South Lancashire and North Cheshire east/west Motorways are constructed. The first will give much better access to Merseyside and relieve pressure on the East Lancashire Road, whilst the second will give much improved links on the south side of the River Mersey; both will provide additional Links with M6, (Diagram 19 ). The construction of the Lancashire and Yorkshire Motorway (M62) will bring the Manchester and West Riding Conurbations very much closer together, whilst ultimately access to Hull, with its connections to Rotterdam and the Rhine, will be greatly facilitated.

8/5 The electrification of the main West Coast railway route from London to Manchester and Liverpool has greatly increased their accessibility and if the proposals to extend the electrification from Crewe in the direction of Glasgow were to materialise, this would further improve the connections from the Metropolis to the Central Lancashire New Town, the expanded Warrington, and the Wigan area.

Transportation in the Study Area

8/6 Of the total volume of goods carried by road in Gre at Brita in, a lmost 153 originates in the North West and details are given in Appendix G, Table 1. It will be noted that this figure almost equa ls the amount originating in London and the South East , and emphas ises the importance of an efficient t rans portation network in the economy of the Region.

8/7 The two ports of Liverpoo l and Manchester together handle about 243 of the Nation 's

46

imports and 273 of its exports. Most of these goods travel to and from the docks by road, this mode of transport being used exclusively where the shorter hauls are concerned. Increasing emphasis is being placed on containerisation, which means a quicker turn round of ships and lesser requirements for warehousing facilities, and this further increases the importance of ready and speedy access to the docks.

8/8 Traffic flow levels in 1960, together with percentage change at known points over the period. 1961-1966 are shown in Diagram 20. The figures are derived from the biennial traffic counts which are summarised in Appendix G, Table 2. These Traffic Census Figures shown an average annual growth rate of approximately 53, which corresponds closely with the forecasts contained in the SELNEC Highway Plan. Table 10 illustrates growth by type of vehicle and shows a very marked increase in private cars, i. e. an average growth rate of 93 per annum.

8/ 9 As far as the Study Area is concerned, the absence of effective distributor roads around the central core, the area with the highest concentration of employment, aggravates congestion. The City's road proposals, which comprise basically a Ring and Radial system, are designed to meet this problem. It is notable that only 103 of the traffic entering the Study Area passes right through it, and the remainder is bound for some destination within it. When it comes to Central Area traffic in Manchester, no Less than 253 consists of through traffic that has no destination in the Central Area. The speed of traffic at the peak in Central Manchester is often as low as 7 miles per hour, and whilst congestion is most acute in the Central Areas

Table 10 Traffic growth 1960/66

1960 1962 1964 1966

All vehicles 100 106.5 115. 2 129. 4

Cars and taxis 100 111. 7 126. 9 154.2

Motor cycles 100 81. 5 86.7 64.1

Buses etc. 100 99.5 98.5 94.4

Light vans 100 103.7 105.4 118. 6

Heavy commercial 100 104.4 108.0 109.4

19 Study Area major transport network

0 6

•••• ... I I I I I I I ........ .....

M6

12 m

•••••. 011n•d.••1 • ·-a 'O ..,.. i1r • S d fi.te .• Y. ~ tu 'I .• • ... \ ...... .

• • • I I ·. . • ...

... · . . ; ·. • • • • . .. t I

I

• I

• '

~ ~ ~ ... ~ •••••••• 1·

. . . • • ••• .. ..

Wilm.siow .•. •• •• . • • • • • • •

47

20 Study Area volume of road traffic

of Manchester and Salford, there are other areas such as the Trafford Park Industrial Estate which also have traffic difficulties.

8/10 The most serious problem is, of course, presented by commuters travelling by car to and from the Conurbation centre at the critical peak periods, unlike shoppers and business callers whose journeys are spread throughout the day. It is estimated that the maximum proportion of commuters which could be catered for in reasonable conditions on the basis of the road system as at present planned, is not more than a third after allowance has been made for essential traffic; this assumes an average occupancy of L 5 persons per car, and that the present working hours are not significantly altered. A continuing reliance on public transport for the bulk of the journey to work is therefore implied.

Veh icles per 16 hour day

10.000.

20.000

40,000

Note: Vehicle scale 1960

0 8 16 m

48

21 Study Area bus services

8/11 As far as bus services are concerned, congestion is already militating against their economics, efficiency and attractiveness, thus leading to the familiar vicious circle of fewer buses and higher fares, resulting in even more people endeavouring to use private transport. This trend is indicated in Table 10 above. Within the Study Area during the ten year period between 1955 and 1965, the number of passengers carried by buses fell by one quarter. This drop is not entire Ly accounted for by the journey to work figures; the inf Luences of the greater use of private cars for social purposes and of television have also had their effects. The railway figures are Less readily available but the number of peak period passengers coming into Manchester central stations fe Ll by about the same proportion during the five year period, 1961-1966. Despite the overall decline in

Frequency of normal service in each di rect ion

0-9 minutes

10-19 minutes

20-29 minutes

30-59 minutes

60-120minutes

J 20+minutes

2 2 Study Area volume of rail traffic

passengers in 1966, three-quarters of the total number of commuters were travelling by public transport - 593 by bus and 143 by rail.

8/12 Diagram 21 gives an indication of the overall pattern of bus services in the Study Area; it shows, as might be expected, that bus movement is predominantly concentrated on the main radial routes serving Manchester and linking the various major employment and shopping centres.

8/13 Diagram 22 shows the local rail network and the average daily passenger flow, although it does not indicate the relatively high loading which in fact occurs at peak travel times. Some of the suburban railways in the area have been electrified

Passengers per day(Study Area only)

sooo 10.000 20.000

0 8 16m

23 Study Area British Rail proposals

and modernised and their location is such as to suggest that they have a potential for more intensive use as part of an integrated transport system. There are others, however, which, due to the changing pattern of development, are no longer strategically located and several in this category have already been closed to passenger traffic, (Diagram 23). When the results of the SELNEC Area Land Use/Transportation Study are known, a better assessment of the future usefulness of each line in an overall transportation context will be possible. Several parts of the existing railway network, if developed, could make a very significant contribution to the transport needs of the Region, if travel by rail were to be properly integrated with bus services, and if there were better provision for park and ride facilities at conveniently located suburban stations.

Rail proposals(Study Area only)

No significant change

All local services to be withdrawn

All services to be withdrawn

Stations(Study Area onlyi

Unaffected

Closed or to be closed • 0 49

24 Study Area SELNEC highway plan

-~~~~t~-.-. • :.:4·:·::::g.

.:~f\ ... ;;:. __ ... ·.-9: •. --···-'"...-:"~!i!iijii\\iiif.:

Proposed major roads

Existing roads to be widened or improved

Source :SELNEC highway plan 1962

0 4

50

---8m

8/14 Manchester Airport is now the country's major Regional airport outside London and an extensive service of direct international and domestic flights is now operated. A Regional airport, particularly in relation to international facilities serves a wide area and there are more than 10 million people within a 50 mile radius of Manchester.

8/15 A recent extension of the runway has made possible direct inter-continental flights to North America, whilst as regards access to the airport itself, improved road connections will be provided in conjunction with the Princess Parkway extension scheme. Apart from passenger facilities, Table 11 below shows that the most significant growth in recent years has been in freight handling. The extension of facilities at the airport to deal with the anticipated growth of both passenger and freight traffic is now under consideration and the airport is, of course, of strategic significance not only to the Study Area but to the Region and the North of England.

SELN EC transportation planning

8/16 After the Development Plans for the different authorities in the sub-region had bean submitted, and in most cases approved, it was recognised that there was a need for an overall highway plan for the SELNEC Area which \vould re-assess the road networks and establish priorities on a sub-regional basis.

Table 11 Ringway Airport activity 1962/66

Freight han led Passengers Aircraft (short tons) handled movements

1962 13.336 1, 076, 217 40, 226

1963 15. 713 1,201,216 41,748

1964 17.627 1,321,618 45,336

1965 22, 780 1,422,278 47,033

1966 33, 043 1,463,946 49,875

Source:

Board of Trade Annual Swnmary of Activity at Aerodromes in UK.

This led in 1962 to the publication of the SELNEC Highway Plan, (Diagram 24), a very useful study, although it was concerned only with highway planning and priorities; it did not take account of the strategic scale of future land use planning, public transport, or the programming of redevelopment. The testing of the highway networks was on the basis that they could be expected to carry 2! times the traffic volumes at the time of survey, namely 1960. Although the plan was in respect of a 20 year period up to 1982, it anticipated correctly that the existing system would be over-loaded by 1965 and its proposals were related to the scale of improvements which might be considered reasonably practicable within the period) rather than to attempt to cater in all parts of the system for the weight of traffic that could be anticipated without restraint.

8/17 Following the Buchanan Report and proposals that had been put forward for the closure of certain suburban railway lines, it became evident that a broader review of the transportation picture in the sub-region was essential, and in 1965 the SELNEC Area Land Use/Transportation Study was initiated. The present Study not only takes account of land use planning proposals for the period up to 1981, but it is aimed at achieving a balanced and integrated transport system embracing both public and private transport, road and rail. An outline transport plan for 1981 will be prepared during 1969, and full information on the methods adopted in its preparation are contained in the published documents re la ting to the Study.

8/18 Most of the Study Area and particularly the core appears to be we 11 served by all forms of transport, and Diagram 25 illustrates the highway and railway networks in the area. In practice, however, congestion on the roads has reduced the efficiency of both bus services and private transport at the peak periods, whilst some of the rail routes and the terminal stations are inconveniently situated in relation to the areas they serve. The rise in car ownership, the time lag between changes required by new circumstances, and the changes themselves, have resulted in a lack of balance in the system, of which the over-loaded road network, the erosion of environmental quality, and the under-utilised

51

25 Study Area existing road and rail transport network

Major roads Carrying a significant amount of traffic

Railways Passenger and fre ight

0 4 8 m

52

rail system are symptomatic.

8/19 As explained, the present Transportation Study is related to relatively short term planning objectives, but in the future the preparation of structure plans in a Regional and sub-regional context should provide the opportunity for a continuous feed-back between land use and transport planning, and for the extension of the Study to take account of Longer range strategic planning objectives.

Implications of an integrated approach

8/20 Manchester's Centre, like the Central Areas of other major cities, has grown and developed in response to Regional and national economic changes and, whilst the size and function of the City Centre has altered, the location has not shifted; at all times it has been the point of maximum accessibility. Whilst it is essential to recognise its growing importance as the administrative and commercial hub of the Region, it is also clear that the transport needs of such a City Centre cannot be met on the basis of private transport alone. If every Central Area employee were to travel to work by car, and on the assumption that two persons occupied each vehicle, more than one -third of the total floor space of the City Centre would have to be devoted to car parking, in addition to the space occupied by a highway system designed on a corresponding scale. The environmental effects and the enormous cost of such a policy could hardly be contemplated, whilst the difficulties of phasing would be almost incapable of solution.

8/21 Segregation can reduce the conflict of a pedestrians and vehicles, but even so the scope for improving the capacity of the street system in the core of the Central Area is very limited. A parking policy for the Central Area therefore plays a key role and the provision of parking spaces has logically to be related to the capacity of the proposed highway network after allowing for essential traffic. The total Long term parking requirement on the basis of the 1962 SELNEC Highway Plan is estimated to be 4 7, 000 spaces in the Centr a L A re a, of which 15, 000 would be short stay and 32, 000 would be fringe area car parks for commuters. In

the meantime, and until the road system can be correspondingly improved, the policy is aimed at providing better facilities for shoppers and business callers at the expense of catering for additional peak hour commuters.

8. 22 The need to preserve the character of the City, together with the practical limitations on the degree of accessibility that can be achieved, means that good public transport will be essential in the future. As mentioned previously, conditions for buses have steadily deteriorated in recent years, and the design of new highways has important implications for their efficient operation. Many of the new highways will be built to urban motorway or near motorway standard, with high capacity and limited access, and in consequence they will pose problems in relation to bus stopping facilities and route mileage. Furthermore, the relationship between these roads and the areas they serve, will be totally different from that which is now so familiar, namely the multi­purpose main roaa having not only many access points serving relatively high density development, but also extensive frontage access. It is clear that if buses are to compete effectively with other forms of transport, consideration will have to be given to the provision of special facilities such as reserved lanes and roads, to make possible their efficient operation. Whilst an ideal solution from the point of view of bus operation would be the provision of uninterrupted tracks in the form of continuous bus lanes, such a solution presents near insoluble difficulties in practice when applied to radial roads, planned in an existing built­up area, especially at major junctions.

8/23 The advantage of complete segregation of public and private transport emphasises the need to make the best use of existing railways, particularly by improving access to stations. Scope is, however, limited because Central Area Stations are not ideally located in relation to the main centres of employment and,more important, many extensive inter-war and post-war developments are not adequately served by existing rail facilities.

8/24 Manchester Corporation and the Ministry of Transport, with the co-operation of British

53

Rail, commissioned in 1966 a full scale comparative feasibility study of rapid transit systems in relation to a selected corridor from Langley and Middleton in the north, through the City Centre to Wythenshawe and Ringway in the south. The object was to evaluate the relative merits of known forms of rapid transit which could be in operation by the early 1970's, and after a detailed technical investigation and estimate of costs, the consultants, De Leuw, Hennessey, Chadwick and OhEocha recommended that the most suitable system for Manchester would be a conventional duorail urban electric railway of standard gauge. From the passenger demand. information derived from the Transportation Study survey data, the conclusion was reached that a line from Northenden to Higher Blackley (including a branch line to East Didsbury utilising an existing railway cutting) should be investigated as a first priority for rapid transit, and should include interchange facilities at Oxford Road and Victoria main line stations to ensure integration with the existing rail system of the Conurbation. The route proposed as the first priority was, in fact, only one of a number of alternative new rail links being investigated in the Transportation Study, and no final decisions on the 'First priority' or any other line can be taken until the Study results are available.

8/25 The whole concept should be one of integration of all forms of transport, public and private, road and rail, to ensure that the best practical provision can be made for the purpose for which each is best suited. The Land Use/Transportation Study is intended to give a clearer indication of the order of priorities. The objective is a balanced transport system that will represent good value in economic and environmental terms, and not least in convenience for the traveller who may be motorist, bus or rail user, or pedestrian at different times and for different purposes.

54

Eastward view from city centre (Airviews Ltd/Manchester Airport)

Summary

9 / 1 This Report is in no sense a policy document, nor is it intended in any way to pre­judge the Regional or sub-regional studies to be prepared as a background to the preparation of Structure Plans under the new Act.

9/2 The review of the Manchester Development Plan would have been submitted by now had it not been for the advent of the new legislation. It is impossible to consider the planning of the City without taking into account its Regional relationship. The purpose of this report is to present a selection of the research and survey work originally undertaken towards providing a setting for the review, had it been necessary to produce such a plan under the old regulations.

9 /3 The material contained in it may therefore serve as a starting point and contribute towards the further work necessary for the production of a Structure Plan in its Regional setting.

9 / 4 Whilst some of the major strategic planning issues, including the pattern of long term growth and investment, are appropriate to the Regiona L scale, there are other more Localised problems which can be rationalised and on which progress can be made at the sub-regional Level. After consideration of alternatives, the sub­regional area adopted for the SELNEC Land Use/Transportation Study was selected as the "Study Area" for the purposes of this report.

9 /5 It is a mistake to regard the towns and communities as merely forming part of an amorphous industrial landscape for there is

~

great variety within the Study Area. Sub­divisions have been identified, although the central area of Manchester is predominant as the main centre of attraction. In considering the Study Area as a whole, the implications for the City of Manchester are naturally given prominence in the context of this report.

9/6 The main problems of the Study Area have their roots in its industrial history as the first workshop of the world and arise from the obsolescence of a large part of the physical fabric including badly Located and out-of-date industrial premises, unfit housing, dereliction and pollution; a poor environment casts a shadow over much of the area and is the major factor inhibiting the realisation of its full potential. Some of the main planning issues

57

that face the area are discussed under the succeeding headings .

Population

9 /7 There is a significant corre Lation between population growth and economic opportunity. Between 1957 and 1966 the population of Great Britain increased by almost 10%. The growth in the North West was only about half this amount and in the Study Area there was hardly any population growth at all (Less than 1%).

9 /8 The lack of growth in the Study Area was accounted for primarily by a high Level of outward migration, although a relatively high death rate - a reflection of poor environment -had a part to play.

9/9 Although the population of the Study Area has been more or Less static over the past 40 years, the built-up area has of course extended greatly due to the thinning out process to relieve over­crowding and congestion. Moreover, an overall static situation in re lat ion to the Study Area as a whole, conceals great differences between the different parts of it.

9/10 The southern sub-divisions of Stockport and A Ltrincham have shown Large increases in population. The Manchester sub-division has shown a substantial decline, whilst up to 1966 there was a slight reduction of population in all the other sub-divisions except Bury.

9 Ill Improvement in conditions has resulted in natural increase accelerating in recent years and it is mainly migration that is responsible for the overall static position. The rate of natural increase was higher in Manchester, Altrincham and Stockport than elsewhere, Manchester having a relatively young age structure., whilst growing young families have moved to A Ltrincham and Stockport.

9I12. Striking differences in socio-economic groups appear between different parts of the Study Area with high concentrations of the professional and technical groups in the southern parts.

9/13 In assuming future population Levels, the extent of net migration is the difficult factor to assess. If migration were to be arrested altogether, the 1966 population of 2. 6-m.

58

could grow by 1981 to 2. 9-m. Taking into account further alternative migration totals based, (i) on land availability and (ii) on estimated economic opportunity, the 1981 population figure is estimated to Lie between 2. 8-m. and 2. 7-m. respectively. Changes in age structure are Likely to mean a decline in people of working age as a proportion of the total.

9/14 The redistribution of population within the Study Area is expected to continue as a result of the processes of relieving congestion and improving environment. Although the central parts of the area still continue to lose population, further growth in the south is Likely to be limited by Land availability cs long as present Land use policies are maintained. The City of Manchester, with the Largest scale clearance problems, is expected to Lose population. By 1981 the minimum Level will have been passed and a population of about 564, 000 is expected at that date.

9I15 A proportion of the anticipated flow of migrants out of the area will be planned migration in the sense that they will be accommodated in New Towns or Town Development schemes. As far as Manchester is concerned, the timing makes it unlikely that the New Towns will make a significant contribution to the clearance operation.

9/16 After 1981, the problem of population growth is expected to continue and if there were no migration an increase of more than !-million by the end of the century could have had its origins in the Study Area. This underlines the importance of the long term contribution of the New Towns and other large scale provisions of housing and employment which will be needed if the Region is to be planned to contain its own growth.

Housing

9/17 In 1965 there were more than -!-million unfit houses in the North West - about a third of the total number in England and Wales. The North West has by far the greatest percentage of any Region, whilst the Study Area compared badly even with the North West region as a whole. In the Study Area one house in seven was unfit as compared with about one in twenty in England and Wales, and in Manchester, the proportion at that time was about one in three.

9/18 Any assessment of future housing needs must make allowance for three factors, namely:

i) Overcrowding ii) Anticipated increase of households

iii) Demand resulting from clearance of unfit houses and other redevelopment.

9/19 The demand in respect of overcrowding is estimated (on the basis of the 1966 Census figures) at 18, 000 dwellings for the Study Area (11, 100 in Manchester).

9 /20 The most recent household projections suggest that 85, 000 new households will be created in the Study Area between 1966 and 1981(24,400 in Manchester).

9/21 Estimating the likely demand from clearance is more complex and depending on the method used, the figure could lie between 220, 000 and 145, 000 dwellings for the Study Area. The figure of 53, 400 for Manchester can be assessed more accurately because there is a clear correlation between the criteria.

9/22 The total estimated housing need, assuming no migration out of the area, can therefore be assessed as between 322, 500 and 24 7, 500 sites for the Study Area and 88, 900 for Manchester. Making allowance for alternative migration estimates (as described in the previous section) these figures cover a range for the Study Area varying from a minimum of 173, 500 (minimum clearance and maximum migration) to a maximum of 281, 500 (maximum clearance and Lower estimate of migration). If there were to be no migration at all, then the total would be 322, 500 on the basis of maximum clearance.

9/23 On the other side of the equation, estimates of land availability are subject to variation according to the rate of clearance, because of course the more unfit dwellings cleared, the greater number of redeve Lopment sites become available. On the basis of.the North West Study figures, updated and modified, it is reckoned that between 206, 000 and 246, 000 sites could be made available within the Study Area up to 1981.

9 /24 This means that the land availability position within the Study Area could vary

between a deficit of 35, 500 sites and a surplus of 32, 500 sites, depending on the rate of clearance and migration estimates. If there were to be no migration at all out of the Study Area, and assuming the maximum clearance rate, the maximum deficit could be as high as 76, 000 sites.

9 /25 Most of the overspill from the congested parts has so far been accommodated within the Study Area itself, Town Development schemes outside the area having made only a negligible contribution. A !though the overall population has remained more or less static, an indication of the rate of progress in relieving congestion is given by the increase in the number of dwellings of about a quarter.

9 /26 The figures already quoted indicate that the supply of sites within the Study Area can only be expected to balance the need during the next 10 years or so at the most unless there are significant changes in planning policies surrounding the built-up areas. Beyond that period, if the Region is to be planned to be attractive and to contain its own net population increase, there could be a need for dwellings to house an additional 2 million population by the end of the century, even when the New Towns at present proposed - Warrington and Central Lancashire - are fully developed. This emphasise .s the need to relate the Longer-term problems to the regional scale.

Employment

9 /27 Environmental conditions under which people work influence more than ever today where they want to live. Lack of any marked change in the total population of the Study Area in recent years reflects the distinct attraction which other parts of the country exert on people from the North West and from the Study Area in particular.

9/28 The current distribution of employment in the Study Area is a direct reflection of the pattern laid down in the nineteenth century which has persisted despite the recent widespread changes in certain sectors of Industry.

9 /29 There has been little new large scale industrial development in the Study Area in the post-war period, as a result of restricting Government policies. In recent years, the

59

North West has received less investment ~r capita than any other Region in the country.

9 /30 Whilst the general trend recently in most parts of the country has been for the numbers employed to rise, the conurbation during the same period has showed negligible growth.

9 /31 Employment in both Primary and Secondary Industry in the Study Area declined between 1961 and 1966, in common with the rest of the country, albeit at a slightly faster rate. The growth in the Tertiary Sector at approximate Ly the National rate has to a large extent compensated for these declines.

9 /32 Following the rapid decline of the coal mining industry, the proportion of employment in Primary Industry in the Study Area is now insignificant.

9 /33 The textile industry lost almost 48, 000 jobs between 1959-1966 but this loss has been partially offset by increases in the engineering industry. In total, however, the Secondary Sector Lost about 30, 000 jobs between these years.

9 /34 Decreases in Manufacturing employment were common to many of the sub-divisions of the Study Area between 1959-1966, the greatest loss being in the Manchester area. The City itself showed a decline of 19, 000 jobs between these years. Despite some loss between 1962 and 1966, the majority of the southern sub­divisions of the Study Area showed a net overall gain in Manufacturing employment.

9 /35 Increases in Tertiary employment have been widespread between 1959 and 1966 with an overall increase of 43, 000 jobs in the Study Area. Manchester apart, the growth has been most rapid in the manufacturing towns which showed Low employment figures in this sector in 1959.

9/36 Unemployment within the Study Area has always been at a relatively low level, even in those sub-divisions which have experienced large scale declines in the mining and textile industries.

9 /37 Within Manchester, the major concentration of employment occurs in the Central Area and the inner parts of the City. The decline of

60

both Primary and Secondary Industry, coupled with the recent self-evident growth in certain parts of the Tertiary Sector, particularly professional and scientific services, reveals the changing role of Manchester. Formerly a manufacturing centre, it is rapidly becoming the centre for the Region's higher order services.

9 /38 Should the current differential in activity rates between the Study Area and the National average be maintained in future, then only a few new jobs will be needed to meet the demands of the higher expected population projection, (2. 79 million).

9 /39 If, on the other hand, activity rates in the Study Area decline more quickly than the national average so that by 1981 only a marginal difference between the two exists, then the demand for jobs could be satisfied even following a further decline in the number of jobs.

9/40 Within Manchester itself, employment outside the Central Area will be reduced as the demolition of commercial premises through the Slum Clearance Programme proceeds. However, many of these jobs will be replaced in both the Industrial Redevelopment Areas and the District Centres. Within the Central Area, it is anticipated that new developments will more than replace all the employment that existed prior to redevelopment, while the future of the Central Area is bound up with Manchester's growth as a metropolitan and regional centre.

9 I 41 If voluntary migration continues in the future at the same rate as of recent years, there is little need on unemployment grounds alone, for the influx of new jobs into the Study Area. In spite of this, however, there is still a need for the extensive modernisation of the Study Area's industry.

9 / 42 On the theoretical basis that land was available to house the population, a reduction in the current rate of voluntary migration would necessitate the provision of new jobs in and around the Study Area on a relatively large scale, and in view of the competition which the Area would face, particularly from Development Areas and New Towns, this could only come about as the result of the

, .

modification of National economic policies.

9 / 43 Migration from the Study Area has been largely the result of adverse environmental conditions and the modernisation of industry is an essential prerequisite of an overall scheme for environmental improvement aimed at making South East Lancashire attractive for Living in. A failure to infuse new industry into the Study Area is likely to result in continued outward migration at a high level.

Shopping

9 / 44 In the Study Area as a whole the rate of shops to population is higher than elsewhere, and as might therefore be expected the average turnover per shop is smaller than is the case nationally; the figures are £12, 016 and £16, 318 per shopping unit respectively.

9 / 45 These overall figures are a reflection of the continued presence of the older shopping areas, such as the ribbons which extend thinly along the major roads; sometimes badly located, the facilities are often poor and prosperity tails off towards the edges of the areas. However, a considerable amount of redevelopment has, of course, taken place both in Town Centres and in suburban areas since 1961, and this is continuing.

9 I 46 The definition of a shopping hierarchy in the Study Area illustrates the overriding importance of Manchester Central Area, and also the relative importance of other centres, of which Bolton is particularly strong.

9/47 It is estimated that shopping turnover can be expected to rise from the 1961 figure of £380 million to £600 million in 1981. Analysis of all shopping proposals that have so far been put forward, making allowance for shops that will be replaced, suggests that about 28 million sq. ft. of shopping floor space could exist at the end of the period. The viability of such a provision is comple:x to assess, particularly as the qualitative as well as the quantitative aspect is significant, but the evidence suggests that over provision might occur if all proposals were carried out. The conclusions to be drawn from these forecasts certainly imply that an objective overall

policy is required to secure a rational and convenient hierarchy of facilities of the right kind, of the right scale, and in the right place.

Recreation

9/48 Manchester's Central Area is peculiar and unique in the Study Area, in that it performs a metropolitan function and is related to a large and growing hinterland. The type of trade characteristic of a major centre, tends to concentrate on goods of a more specialised and durable nature on which expenditure may be expected to increase most rapidly. The main centre is therefore most conveniently situated to develop its share of this kind of shopping activity provided that attractive facilities of high quality can be developed, and that accessibility is improved - including the provision of adequate car parking for shoppers and the development of better public transport.

9/49 Although the demand for recreational facilities is rapidly increasing, its character is changing. On the one hand there is the desire for higher quality and more ample local opportunities for participation in sport whilst on the other, greater mobility has meant that horizons have been extended to well beyond the Study Area in relation to leisure facilities.

9/50 In the Study Area itself, the quantity of existing open space provision compares unfavourably with the National Playing Fields Association standards which have hitherto tended to be regarded as the yardstick. By any reckoning there are parts of thi; area which are seriously underprovided with local facilities, though it is notable that the two sub-divisions of Altrincham and Stockport showed a higher provision than the remainder of the area.

9/51 Manchester itself on paper appears to be fairly well provided as regards an overall standard of open space, but this is not the whole story. The figures are boosted by the 600 acres of Heaton Park, which in practice fulfils the role of a Regional park serving a much wider area than the City; in addition as might be expected, the recently planned Wythenshawe area is comparatively well provided for.

61

Wythenshawe area is comparatively well provided for.

9 /52 Thus open space facilities are not at all well distributed through the City, and the population in the inner areas - about half that of the City - enjoys about one seventh of the total open space. Even in the newly redeveloped inner areas the demand on land for housing and other purposes has meant that it has been possible to provide only a comparatively low standard of open space (about l ! acres per thousand population) although an adequate standard has of course been adopted for educational purposes.

9 /53 If it has not been possible to devote a high proportion of the housing areas to open space needs, adjoining areas of derelict land, including the river valleys, offer the potential to provide these facilities and the planning strategy is to develop these areas to form a continuous open space system with both local and wider significance.

9 /54 Beyond the City the same principle has been adopted and there are a numQer of schemes, several of them concentrated on the principal river valleys, to create recreational areas of Regional significance; these proposals have been given emphasis by the Countryside Act of 1968 with its emphasis on country parks. On a broader scale again, access from the Study Area to National Parks is becoming increasingly convenient, the M6 Motorway bringing the Lake District within easy range whilst the new Trans-Pennine Motorway will greatly improve access to the Yorkshire Dales.

9/55 In relation to activities of an artistic a:nd entertainment character, Manchester's developing metropolitan role is of particular significance; it serves not only the Study Area, but for some purposes can be considered to cater for a much wider population approaching some 7 million people, both throughout the Region and indeed to some extent across the Pennines. Other centres throughout the Study Area are strengthening their artistic activities, but there are some facilities that can only be provided at the centre of attraction of a large population.

9 /56 Cultural and public activities of this scale are directly complementary to the commercial,

62

industrial and educational functions of metropolitan Manchester, and proposals for their development include the establishment of an Arts Centre in the City which will supplement and diversify the existing facilities and will make it possible to provide opportunities of the quality justified by the scale of the population served.

Transport

9 /57 The Regional pattern of communications in relation to the Study Area is based on routes which have grown up historically in a predominantly east-west direction. The construction of the M6 motorway, a national rather than a regional route, represented the first major north-south development and its potential for growth is being exploited -notably by the New Town proposals. At the same time however, the east-west links are to be strengthened with the construction of two new motorways and these will provide better links between the conurbations and the M6. The conquest of the Pennine barrier by the new M62 motorway will mean that the Study Area's influence will no Longer be restricted in an easterly direction.

9/58 About a quarter of the country's overseas trade is handled by the ports in North West England and therefore, accessibility to the docks at Manchester and Liverpool is most important; this is especially so with the increasing use of containers.

9 /59 The road network in the Study Area suffers from considerable congestion, particularly in certain critical areas such as Central Manchester and Trafford Park; the most serious problem is, of course, atrributable to commuters and it is estimated that the maximum proportion which could be catered for in reasonable conditions on the basis of the road system as at present planned is not more than a third.

9/60 This implies considerable reliance on public transport. Although buses carry nearly three fifths of commuters the quality of service is prejudiced by congestion, resulting in a progressive drop in the number of passengers during the last few years. The railways enjoy the inherent advantage of the separation of public from private transport

and whilst some of the suburban railways in the area have been improved, there is scope for further development, including the provision of more conveniently located terminal facilities. On the other hand, there are others which are no longer well related to the pattern of development, and some of these have already been closed to passenger traffic. However , all lines are being examined as part of the Land Use/Transportation Study for the SELNEC Area, which will show which parts of the network can be developed to make a greater contribution to the area's transport needs.

9/61 Manchester Airport serves a population of some 10 million people for an increasing range of international and domestic flights. It is the most important Regional Airport outside London and in the years 1962-1966 the number of passengers handled rose by 40% and the amount of freight carried more than doubled.

9/62 Manchester City Centre, Like the centre of any other major City, has always been the point of maximum accessibility within the conurbation. Its importance as the administrative, commercial and cultural hub of the Region is growing but it is clear that for economic, environmental and practical reasons, its transport needs cannot be met on a basis which assumes the unrestricted use of private transport.

9/63 The provision of parking spaces in the centre of Manchester must be related to the capacity of the highway network. The present policy which is based on the currently planned road system places emphasis on short term parking spaces, with longer term spaces on the fringe of the City Centre.

9 /64 It is necessary to reconcile the general desire to preserve the character of the City with the need to achieve the maximum degree of accessibility. This means that good public transport will be essential and consideration must be given to providing better facilities for buses and to making the best use of the railway system. These possibilities, together with the possibility of constructing new rapid transit routes are now being examined fully in the context of the SELNEC Land Use /Transport Study. The concept guiding future policy is of an

integrated and balanced system throughout the Study Area in which all forms of public and private transport can be used to their best advantage. The fYStem has to offer convenience to the traveller, and good value in economic and environmental terms to the community.

63

Appendices

Appendix A

l Definition of the Study Area 66 2 Subdivision of the Study Area 68

Appendix B

1 Population changes 69 2 Per cent change 1951/66 70 3 Population change 1951/66 71 4 Age structure 1966 and 1981 72 5 Population change 1966/81 73

Appendix C

l Overspill sites 74 2 Total dwellings 75 3 Clearance needs 1964 75

Appendix D

1 Standard Industrial Classification and Employment Exchange Areas 76

2 Public Investment 77 3 Economic Structure 1959/66 79 4 Total Employment 1959/66 81 5 Employment Change 1959/66 83 .) Employment Change 1959/62 85 7 Employment Change 1962/65 87 ;.:. Per cent Unemployed 1959/66 88

Appendix E

1 Shopping Hinterlands 89 2 Shopping Trends 90

Appendix F

1 Study Area Recreational Provision 93 2 Manchester C B Recreational

Provision 95

Appendix G

l Freight Volumes 1962 95 2 Traffic Growth 1960/66 96

65

Appendix A 1 Definition of the Study Area

";> ' ;: ...... .s. -~ -.•'( . _, ;+

.. ·~· ,, ... ·.,..,..1···. ~. ·, -·' ,, -~ ' ~t.-c~.l ;.. '-·

S.ELN.EC. Area as used in this report -Shopping hinterland of Manchester

Manchester Evening News circulation

Cultural sphere of influence

Journey to Work catchment area -·-66

An effective and commonly used technique of defining an area of Study based on a central City such as Manchester is to consider boundaries drawn on the 'watersheds, ' or the lines of 'least friction' between neighbouring units. Clearly, however, the limits will vary according to the criteria which are used for defining such watersheds, and four such criteria are briefly examined: see diagram on opposite page.

Employment and the journey to work

Shopping

The area of the circulation of the main non-national newspaper, the Manchester Evening News

Tue sphere of influence of selected cultural institutions in the City Centre.

1 Journey to Work: Manchester City Centre, Salford and Stretford - which together provide approximately 25 per cent of the employment in the Study Area - is taken as the urban core, in order to relate effectively the journey to work with a realistic central employment area. The boundary in the diagram opposite which is derived from diagram -, is taken to include all those authorities from which 5 per cent or more of all employed persons travel to this core area and illustrates the relative independence, or degree of self-sufficiency, of the northern and eastern arc of towns, in contrast to the influence which the core exerts over authorities to the south west and south east. 2 Shopping: The Grade I hinterland of Manchester's central shopping area is indicated and this concept is explained further in section 2 • 6 and Appendix Fl. Within the Study Area, and excepting Manchester, only Bolton may be regarded as having any Grade I trade, though the amount is relatively small. 3 Newspaper circulation: The diagram indicates the primary area (80 per cent of sales) of circulation of the major local newspaper - the Manchester Evening News. Bolton again has a somewhat

independent role, and as in the case of shopping, an extensive rural area in Cheshire is found to be within Manchester's sphere of influence. 4 Cultural Influence: The area from which 85 per cent of the patrons of the Halle Orchestra and Library Theatre are drawn is also indicated. This is a further indication of the sphere of influence of Central Manchester. This hinterland coincides with the built-up area of the conurbation and extends westwards to Warrington. 5 It is evident that the areas corres­ponding to each of the four criteria examined vary appreciably and illustrate the difficulty of accepting or defining one Study Area reflecting Manchester's sphere of influence. Nevertheless, when the areas resulting from applying these criteria are compared with the area of SELNEC as defined for the Land Use I Transportation Study, there is a high degree of correlation and the SELNEC area has therefore been selected for the consideration of problems at sub-regional scale and a convenient context against which to consider the more important strategic problems for planning in Manchester. It is apparent that the area chosen may be considered reasonable for general study, though the dynamics of urban regions suggests that the justification of areal study may not remain constant for a long period of time.

67

2 Subdivision of the Study Area

Each of the authori ties oppos ite attracts 30°/o or more of the emigrant workers of the authorities shown w1th1n its catchment area Overlay shows demographic sub-areas as used 1n this report

Local newspaper c1rcu lat1on areas

Demographic sub-areas

Source Census Workplace Tables and local newspapers

68

Journey to work sub-areas

Manchester Bolton Bury Rochdale Oldham

0 4 8m

1 2 3 4

5

Appendix B

+

Persons (0 00)

10

9

8

6

5

3

0

3

4

5

Natural change

Migration

1 Population changes

Total change is indicated by the heavy line

The height of each column represents the mean annual change for the period . The columns represent the periods-1951-56 . 1956-61and1961-66.Total percent change for1951-66 is shown in figures .

Source:National Census

0 4 8m

69

2 Per cent change 1951 /66

Sub-divisions 1951/56 1956/61 1961/66 1951/66

Manchester - o. 7 - 1.1 - 3.7 - 5. 4

Bolton - 1. 7 + 0.5 + 0.4 - o. 7

Bury - 1. 3 + 1.2 + 9.5 + 9.4

Leigh - 2. 4 - 2.9 + 2.1 - 3,2

Oldham - 1. 9 - 2.1 - 2.0 - 5. 9

Rochdale - 2. 5 - 1.0 + 2.5 - 1. 1

Altrincham + 2.5 + 11. 7 + 6.2 + 21.6

Stockport + 2. 3 + 10.2 + 10.4 + 24. 5

Study Area total - o. 6 + o. 9 + 0.3 + o. 6

Manchester C B - 2.5 - 3.5 - 6.5 - 12. 0

Note: Manchester sub-division includes Manchester County Borough

70

3 Population change 1951/66

Sub-divisions

Manchester

1951

1956

1961

1966

Bolton

1951

1956

1961

1966

Bury

1951

1956

1961

1966

Leigh

1951

1956

1961

1966

Oldham

1951

1956

1961

1966

Total Population

1261937

1253354

1240140

1193990

252673

248395

249708

250830

144922

143076

144803

158590

90711

88561

86036

87840

289345

283902

278091

272320

Total Change

No

- 8583

-13214

- o. 7

- 1. 1

-46150 - 3. 7

- 4278 - 1. 7

+ 1313 + o. 5

+ 1122 + 0.4

- 1846 - 1.3

+ 1727 + 1. 2

+13787 + 9. 5

- 2150 - 2.4

- 2525 - 2. 9

+ 1804 + 2. 1

- 5443 - 1. 9

- 5811 - 2.0

- 5771 - 2.1

Natural Change

No

+26417 +2.1

+32608 +2.6

+42021 +3.4

+ 830 +0.3

+ 1722 +O. 7

+ 5050 +2.0

- 120 -0.1

+ 344 +0.2

+ 3760 +2.6

+ 1079 +1.2

+ 994 +1.1

+ 1962 +2.3

+ 920 +0.3

+ 1222 +0.4

+ 3740 +1.3

Voluntary Migration

No

-30400 -2.4

-36582 -2.9

-57081 -4. 6

- 5108 -2. 0

- 409 -0.2

- 3928 -1. 6

- 1726 -1. 2

+ 1383 +1.0

+2517 +1.7

- 3229 -3. 6

- 3519 -4. 0

- 158 -0.2

- 6363 -2.2

7133 -2,5

-10031 -3.6

Planned Migration

No

- 4600

- 9240

..31090

+ 7510

+ 100

+ 520

"/o

-0.4

-0.7

-2.5

+5.2

+0.1

+0.2

Sub-division

Rochdale

1951

1956

1961

1966

Altrincham

1951

1956

1961

1966

Stockport

1951

1956

1961

1966

Study Area total

1951

1956

1961

1966

Manchester C B

1951

1956

1961

1966

Total Population

120338

117332

116140

119070

127107

130341

145610

154576

270534

276711

304973

336730

2557567

2541672

2565429

2573946

703032

685665

661791

618640

Total Change

No

- 3006

- 1192

+ 2930

+ 3234

+15269

+ 8966

+ 6177

- 1. 0

+ 2. 5

+11. 7

+ 6. 2

+ 2.3

+28262 +10. 2

-1317 57 +10.4

-15895 - o. 6

+23757 + o. 9

+ 8517 + 0.3

-17367 - 2.5

-23874 - 3, 5

-43151 - 6.5

Natural Change

No "/o

+ 120 +0,1

+ 87 +0.1

+ 1890 +1.6

+ 1403 +1.1

+ 2771 +2.1

+ 5409 +:i. 7

+ 1190 +0.4

+ 4962 +1. 7

+ 4116 +1.4

+31839 +1.2

+44710 +1. 8

+67448 +2.6

+-16870 +2.4

+18319 +2. 7

+23270 +3.5

Voluntary Migration

No

- 3126

- 1279

+ 1040

+ 1183

"/o

-2.6

-1.1

+O. 9

+0.9

+10099 +7. 7

- 1482 -1. 0

+ 2987 +1.1

+19720 +7.1

+14791 +4.8

-45782 -1. 8

-1779'2 -0. 7

-53760 -2.1

-19477 -2.8

-25397 -3.7

-30921 -4. 7

Planned Migration

No

+ 648 +0.5

+ 2399 +1. 9

+ 5039 +8. 5

+ 2000 +O. 7

+ 3580 +1. 2

+12850 +4. 2

- 1952 -0.1

- 3161 -0.1

- 5171 -0.2

-14760 -2.1

-16796 -2.4

-35500 -5.4

71

4 Age structure 1966 and 1981 ""1

Young age group Working age group Retired age group

Mand F 0-14 M 15-64 F 15-59 M 65+ F 60+

Sub-divisions 1961 1981 1961 1981 1961 1981

Manchester 24.1 26.3 62.1 57. 4 13. 8 16.3

Bolton 22.3 24.9 62.0 56. 5 15.7 18.6

Bury 22.4 24.7 61.8 57. 2 15. 8 18.1

Leigh 22.5 24.7 62.8 56. 2 14.7 19.1

Oldham 22.5 25.0 61.6 57. 0 15.9 18. 0

Rochdale 22.2 25.0 61.4 56. 8 16.4 18.2

Altrincham 23.5 24.8 62.3 57. 9 14.2 17.3

Stockport 23.0 25.0 62.2 57. 3 14.8 17. 7

Study Area total 23.3 25.6 62.2 57. 2 14.5 17. 2

Manchester C B 24.1 27.2 62.1 57.1 13.8 15.7

Note: M - Male; F - Female

Manchester sub-division includes Manchester County Borough

72

5 Population change 1966/81

Population 1966 Population 1981 Total change 1966/81 Natural change 1966/81 Voluntary /Planned migration 1966/81

Sub-divisions No. Per cent No Per cent No Per cent

Manchester 1193990 1156080 - 37910 - 3.2 + 208365 + 17. 5 - 246275 -20.6

Bolton 250830 268900 + 18070 + 7.2 + 26550 + 10. 6 8480 - 3. 4

Bury 158590 196720 + 38130 + 24. 0 + 12540 + 7.9 + 25590 +16.1

Leigh 87840 96000 + 8160 + 9.3 + 7549 + 8.6 + 611 + 0.7

Oldham 272320 272450 + 130 + 0.1 + 24180 + 8.9 - 24050 - 8. 8

Rochdale 119070 125550 + 6480 + 5.4 + 9570 + 8.0 3090 - 2. 6

Altrincham 154576 204100 + 49524 + 32. 0 + 14325 + 9.3 + 35199 +22. 8

Stockport 336730 387200 + 50470 + 15. 0 + 35610 + 10. 6 + 14860 .; 4.4

Study Area total 2573946 2707000 + 133054 + 5.2 + 338700 + 13. 2 - 205646 - 8. 0

73

Appendix C 1 Overspi II sites

Number of Dwellings

Local Authority Planned Built (November 1968)

Cheshire

Bucklow RD 1, 820 1,284

Bredbury and Romiley UD 786 786

Cheadle and Gatley UD 606 606

Hazel Grove and Bramhall UD 411 390

Hyde MB and Longdendale UD 3, 724 3,418

Knutsford UD 389 241

Marple UD 365 365

Sale MB 1, 946 514

Stalybridge MB 127 127

Wilmslow UD 2,098 1,078

Derbyshire

Glossop MB 1,418 392

Lancashire

Bury CB 2,012 0

Denton UD 1,401 1,299

Heywood MB 1, 885 1,885

Middleton MB 4, 779 4,779

Ramsbottom UD 78 78

Whitefield UD 1,472 1,472

74

2 Total dwellings

Census date

Sub-divisions 1861 1881 1961

Manchester 114911 184426 398049

Bolton 21795 33316 88907

Bury 21073 29592 52525

Leigh 6099 9164 28122

Oldham 38077 57557 100068

Rochdale 19030 29327 42886

Altrincham 7051 11007 48534

Stockport 25855 34480 105677

Study Area total 253921 388869 864768

3 Clearance needs 1964

Clearance needs

Local authorities Census Census Dwellings with own estimates enumerated enumerated rateable value 1964 dwellings 1861 dwellings with below £30 net

Sub-divisions no fixe bath 1961 1963

Manchester 108690 114911 93183 92418

Bolton 14850* 21795 25469 33230*

Bury 9420 21073 14280 21388

Leigh 10780 6099 6882 9071

Oldham 37170* 38077 41740 46920*

Rochdale 15460 19030 17567 22282

Altrincham 2010* 7051 4473 4750*

Stockport 11020* 25855 22025 22970*

Study Area total 209400 253921 225619 253030

Note:- • Indicates estimate,

75

Appendix D 1 Standard Industrial Classification and Employment Exchange Areas

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

2 Mining and quarrying

3 Food, drink and tobacco

4 Chemicals and allied industries

5 Metal manufacture

6 Engineering and Electrical goods

7 Shipbuilding and marine engineering

8 Vehicles

9 Metal goods not elsewhere specified

10 Textiles

11 Leather, leather goods and Fur

12 Clothing and footwear

13 Bricks, pottery, glass, cement etc

14 Timber, Furniture etc

15 Paper, printing and publishing

16 Other manufacturing industries

17 Construction

18 Gas, electricity and water

19 Transport and communication

20 Distributive trades

21 Insurance, banking and finance

22 Professional and scientific services

23 Miscellaneous services

24 Public administration and defence

Grouping of Orders

1-2 Primary industry

3-16 Secondary (manufacturing) industry

17-24 Tertiary industry

This is a national classification of industry and the orders above are further subdivided into Minimum List headings e.g. Engineering and electrical goods into Textile machinery and Office machinery etc.

76

Sub-divisions Employment exchanges

Manchester Denton Eccles Irlam Manchester etc. Middleton Prestwich Salford Stretford Swinton Worsley

Bolton Bolton Farnworth Horwich Westhoughton

Bury Bury Heywood Radcliffe Ramsbottom

Leigh Atherton Leigh

Oldham Ashton-under-Lyne Mossley Oldham etc. Roy ton Shaw Stalybridge

Rochdale Littleborough Rochdale

Altrincham Altrincham Wilmslow

Stockport Hyde Marple Stockport

Note: Based on Ministry of Labour Employment Record 11 records. Thus these returns include youth employment offices and in two cases (Manchester and Oldham) represent an aggregate total of other exchanges within the exchange area noted above.

2 Public investment

Public Sector Private Sector Total

Economic Education: Education: Public Offices, shops, Planning Dwellings Schools Universities Health Roads Corporations garages, etc. Miscellaneous Dwellings Industrial Other buildings Total £M total per Head Region

£ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £

N West 9.3 2.7 1. 2 0.7 2.6 2.0 1. 3 2.1 9.6 7.8 6.2 306.3 45.5

Northern 9.2 1. 9 0.6 0.9 5.9 2.2 1. 9 3.1 10.1 12. 0 5.6 176. 5 53.4

Yorks and Htunberside 10. 0 2.5 4.6 3.4 7.4 3.6 0.5 3.9 10.1 8.1 6.3 273.5 57.9

W Midlands 14.0 2.3 0.3 0.8 1. 6 5.3 0.8 4.6 12.1 9.3 6.5 288.8 57.6

E Midlands 7.4 2.5 0.1 1.1 1. 7 2.2 0.4 2.9 12.5 8.7 6.9 152. 8 46.4

E Anglia 9. 6 1. 6 1. 4 1. 0 0.8 1. 9 1. 6 8.2 17.0 9.3 6.2 91. 1 58.6

S East and London 10.0 3.0 1. 1 2.8 2.5 3.4 0.8 4.6 12.3 6.4 8.5 934.7 55.4

S West 7. 1 1. 9 0.6 2.4 1. 6 3.5 0.4 5.0 15.0 5.9 4.7 J.76.4 48.1

Wales 10.5 1. 7 o. 9 6.2 2.9 10. 1 1. 7 6.8 8.5 10.5 3.6 170.7 63.4

Scotland 17.2 3.4 1. 9 2.1 3.2 2.4 2.6 3.9 5.9 8.7 6.1 296. 6 57.4

Total 10. 6 2.6 1. 1 2.2 3.0 3.5 1.1 4.2 11. l 8.0 6.7 2867.4 54.1

Notes

a) Public Corporations includes Gas, Electricity, coal mining and Air Transport

b) Miscellaneous includes Harbours, Water supply, sewerage and miscellaneous services

c) Other buildings includes Offices, Shops, Entertainment, Barages, Schools and Colleges (Private and Miscellaneous)

Source:

Ministry of Public Building and Works Strategy II: North West Economic Planning Counci! 1968.

77

3 Economic structure 1959/66

Primary

Sub-Division 1959 1966

No "/o No o/o

Manchester 13152 2.1 7956 1. 3

Bolton 669 0.6 455 0.4

Bury 159 0.3 170 0.3

Leigh 14022 31. 8 9890 22 . 8

Oldham 779 0.6 262 0.2

Rochdale 118 0.2 121 0.2

Altrincham 1231 3.4 915 2.2

Stockport 383 0.4 349 0.3

Study Area Total 30513 2.6 20118 1. 7

Manchester C B 3291 {). 8 1784 0.4

Gt Britain 21928600 6.8 1056132 4.5

Note: ( i) Manchester sub-division includes Manchester County Borough.

(ii) Tertiary sector includes non-classified employees present on the Employment Record II Returns.

Source- Ministry of Labour Employment Record II Returns.

Secondary

1959

No "/o

305919 47.7

67333 62.4

39325 65.3

17678 40.0

92529 66.3

39413 69.9

12662 34.4

57569 58.8

632428 53.4

161581 40.1

8436430 38.5

Tertiary Total

1966 1959 1966 1959 1966

No o/o No o/o No "/o No No

279975 45.0 321252 50.2 333642 53.7 640323 621573

61757 56.6 39966 37 . 0 46858 43.0 107968 109070

40159 65.9 20732 34.4 20602 33.8 60216 60931

19513 45. 1 12427 28.2 13889 32.1 44127 43292

85341 61. 5 46263 33.1 53240 38. 3 139571 138843

38384- 67.8 16831 29.9 18131 32.0 56362 56636

14614 34. 5 22810 62.2 26771 63.3 36703 42300

62581 55.3 40010 40.8 50200 44.4 97962 113130

602324 50.8 520291 44.0 563333 47.5 1183232 1185775

140756 36.7 238007 59.1 241213 62 . 9 402879 383753

8935647 38.0 11998680 54. 7 13551773 57.5 219'28000 23543552

79

Jloyment change 1959/66

teous

rnge

Manchester

1959/66

Total Change

- 176

Per Cent change

-30. 9

- 5020 -39. 9

- 1573 - 6. 7

+ 234 + 0.9

- 742 - 5.2

- 1458 - 1. 6

- 252 -24. 5

- 4822 -41. 8

32 - 0. 3

-11724 -36.7

+ 2 + o. 2

- 8812 -21. 3

+ 848 +10. 9

- 248 - 3.1

+ 898 + 3.9

+ 1737 +13.2

- 1385 - 3. 6

+ 118 +l.l

- 3366 - 8.6

-11188 -11. 2

+ 2251 +11. 2

+19520 +4-0. 5

+"5254 +11.4

- 767 - 4. 2

+ 1953

-18750 - 2.9

Bolton

1959/66

Total Change

11

- 203

Per cent Change

- 3.2

-61. 7

+ 563 +24. 2

+ 79 + 4. 8

+ 466 +42. 2

+ 3042 +42. 3

1

+ 35 + o. 34

+ 363 +14. 4

-10917 -34. 1

- 256 -19.0

+ 556 +22.6

37 - 6. 1

- 493 -30.4

+ 335 +12. 9

+ 689 +39. 7

+ 309 + 5. 9

+ 372 +14.4

- 612 -13.8

+ 2812 +27.1

+ 480 +46.8

+ 2159 +28.8

+ 1496 +29. 2

- 354 - 9. 6

+ 230

+ 1102 + 1 0

Bury

1959/66

Total Per cent Change Change

Leigh

1959/66

Total Change

7 - 4. 8 - 103

+ 18 +150. O* -4029

- 49 - 3.2 - 185

+ 452 + 37. 3 - 522

+ 90 + 8. 6 - 50

+2242 + 37.9 +2791

4

- 81 - 33.2 +1045

+ 244 + 53. 7 + 376

-3889 22. 8

+ 622 +229. 5•

-2579

2

+ 168 + 9. 7 + 66

- 33 - 13.7 + 256

+ 106 + 7.1 + 122

+ 234 + 4. 2 + 83

+ 728 + 28.3 + 438

- 228 - 8. 4 + 642

18 1. 5 - 103

- 173 - 9 7 - 201

-179 - 3.8 -261

+ 91 + 15. 3 + 69

+1114 + 29. 3 + 974

+ 156 + 6.9 + 426

- 937 - 25 2 - 130

+ 44 + 46

+ ?15 + 1. 2 - 835

Oldham

1959/66

Per cent Total Change Change

Per cent Change

- 28. 8 - 94 -26. 5

- 29. 5 - 423 -99.8

- 30. 1 - 1116 - 21. 2

- 58. 6 + 365 + 40. 1

- 14.5 - 177 - 14. 0

+ 59.1 + 4816 + 23.4

- 100 - 261 - 87. 0

+829.4• + 304 + 3.6

+ 42.0 + 732 +21.6

- 28. 3 -14013 -35. 6

- 33. 3 + 15 + 1. 2

+ 11.8 + 431 + 9.9

+ 95.5 + 122 +37.8

+508. 3• + 161 + 9. 8

+ 85.6 + 1111 +45.l

+913. 2• + 322 +10. 7

+ 37.1 + 2736 +50.8

- 17 2 + 328 +10.8

-12.9 + 52 +1.2

- 7 .9 + 276 + 2 0

+ 25.4 No Change

+ 45.l + 2724 +32. 9

+24.6 +1017 +18.0

- 12.3 - 270 - 6. 1

+ 114

- 1. 9 - 728 - 0.5

Rochdale

1959/66

Total Per cent Change Change

+ 32

- 29

- 13

-195

+596

-350

+ 00

+ 22

+367

-698

-242

+244

- 86

+ 79

-509

-261

+168

+ 21

-153

+ 25

+174

+971

+239

-139

- 6

+274

+55. 2

-48. 3

- 1. 4

-34.3

+81. 3

- 5.1

+1700*

+16.0

+34.4

- 2.9

- 2.0

+56. 2

-46.0

+18.6

-29. 8

-33.1

+ 6. 7

+ 3. 0

- 8. 5

+ o. 7

+40. l

+27.2

+10. 7

- 7.5

+ 0. 5

Altrincham

1959/66

Total Change

- 324

+ 8

- 110

+ 46

+ 274

+1264

+ 00

- 27

+ 220

- 109

+ 11

- 26

+ 65

+ 71

+ 134

+ 131

- 248

+ 947

- 4-02

+ 741

+ 305

+2164

+ 604

- 165

+ 15

+5597

Per cent Change

- 26.4

+200. ()*

- 41. 2

+ 7.4

+114. z.

+ 15.4

-800

- 9.7

+ 41. 4

- 37.2

+ 30.5

- 3.0

+ 17. 6

+ 18.1

+ 33.5

+ 94. 9

- 6.6

+145. 5•

- 25.5

+ 15.6

+ 41 2

+ 49. 4

+ 13. 3

- 6.9

+ 15. 2

Stockport Study Area Total Manchester C B

1959/66 1959/66 1959/66

Total Per cent Change Change

35 - 9.1

Total Change

- 718

- 9677

Per cent Change

-20. 9

-35. 7

+ 3187 + 59. 5 + 704 + 1. 8

+ 2059 +119. 3• + 2518 + 7. 2

- 261 - 8. 4 + 196 + 0. 9

+ 2234 + 14. 7 +14581 + 9.1

+ 6 + 6. 2 - 487 -34.1

+ 1052 + 26. 5 - 2472 - 7. 1

+ 237 + 19. 4 + 2507 +12. 6

- 3867 - 33. 4

- 206 - 45.4

+ 982 + 17 .1

-47796

56

- 6391

-28.8

- 1. 0

-11. 1

+ 80 + 10. 9 + 1215 +11. 6

87 - 9.8 - 289 - 2. 0

+ 886 + 20.3 + 3172 + 7. 9

- 1290 - 40.6 + 2494 +10.1

+ 1521 + 26. 2 + 3515 + 5, 3

No Change + 1665 + 7 . 9

- 647 - 14.8 - 5502 - 9. 3

+ 3140 + 31. 2 - 4634 - 3. 1

+ 184 + 14 . 9 + 3554 +13. 7

+ 2599 + 36. 9 +32225 +37. 9

+ 691 + 10. 8 + 9883 +13. 3

+ 1272 + 40.1 - 1490 - 3.8

+ 1430 + 3826

+15168 + 15. 5 + 2543 + 0. 2

Total Change

- 161

- 1346

- 1831

- 114

18

Per cent Change

-46.1

-45.7

-14.9

- 0.9

- 0. 4

+ 1516 + 3. 9

+ 4 +66. 7•

- 5190 -75.2

- 1372 -20.4

- 6329 -38. 2

+ 34 + 3. 3

- 8077 -26.8

+ 173 + 9.9

- 144 - 3. 3

+ 814 + 4. 3

- 291 - 3.7

- 1551 - 7. 1

+ 306 + 4. 7

- 1831 - 7.3

-1217 0 -14. 5

+ 1875 +10. 0

+13598 +39.6

+ 2563 + 7.3

- 1073 - 8.6

+ 1489

-19126 - 4.7

4 Total employment 1959/66

S IC Manchester Bolton Bury

1959 1966 1959 1966 1959 1966

1 569 393 340 329 147 140 2 12583 7563 329 126 12 30 3 23499 21926 2327 2890 1550 1501 4 27147 27381 1656 1735 1213 1665 5 14220 13478 1103 1569 1048 1138 6 92253 90795 7194 10236 5912 8154 7 1027 775 1 8 11540 6718 10155 10190 244 163 9 9769 9737 2518 2881 454 698

10 31956 20232 32026 21109 17025 13136 11 1241 1243 1347 1091 271 893 12 41361 32549 2454 3010 1726 1894 13 7755 8603 603 566 241 208 14 8072 7824 1623 1130 1497 1603 15 22893 23791 2593 2928 5570 5804 16 13186 14923 1733 2422 2574 3302 17 38866 37481 5257 5566 2707 2479 18 10441 10559 2573 2945 1167 1149 19 39174 35808 4434 3822 1781 1608 20 99949 88761 10372 13184 4698 4519 21 20117 22368 1025 1505 595 686 22 48190 67710 7495 9654 3806 4920 23 40069 51323 5120 6616 2255 2411 24 18384 17617 3679 3325 3722 2785

Miscellaneous 62 2015 11 241 1 45

Total 640323 621573 107968 109070 60216 60931

Note: (i) Manchester Sub-division includes Manchester County Borough.

(ii) Miscellaneous refers to the unclassified labour present on Employment Record II returns.

Source:·- Ministry of Labour Employment Record II Returns.

Leigh Oldham

1959 1966 1959

357 254 355 13665 9636 424

614 429 5273 890 368 909 345 295 1261

4722 7513 20540 4 300

126 1171 8398 894 1270 3391

9125 6546 39383 6 4 1258

559 625 4371 268 524 323

24 146 1642 97 180 2462 4 442 3018

1732 2374 5387 599 496 3026

1557 1356 4314 3313 3052 13658 272 341 1498

2157 3131 8274 1730 2156 5662 1053 923 4441

14 60 3

44127 43292 139571

Rochdale Altrincham Stockport Study Area Total Manchester C B

1966 1959 1966 1959 1966 1959 l.966 1959 1966 1959 1966

261 58 90 1227 903 383 348 3436 2718 349 188 1 60 31 4 12 1 27077 17400 2942 1596

4157 908 895 267 157 5354 8541 39792 40496 12315 10484 1274 569 374 620 666 1718 3777 34722 37240 11918 11804 1084 733 1329 240 514 3088 2827 22038 22234 4408 4390

25356 6885 6535 8226 9490 15181 17415 160913 175494 38761 40277 39 17 8 97 103 1429 942 6 10

8702 137 l.59 278 251 3968 5020 34846 32374 6901 1711 4123 1066 1433 531 751 1221 1458 19844 22351 6737 5365

25370 24397 23699 293 184 11580 7713 165785 117989 16551 10222 1273 1177 935 36 47 454 248 5790 5734 1026 1060 4802 434 678 871 845 5747 6729 57523 51132 30151 22074 445 187 101 369 434 736 816 10482 11697 1750 1923

1803 425 504 393 464 887 800 14563 14274 4353 4209 3573 1707 1198 400 534 4364 5250 40086 43258 18763 19577 3340 788 527 138 269 3174 1884 24615 27109 7941 7650 8123 2500 2668 3767 3519 5810 7331 66026 69541 21965 20414 3354 706 727 651 1598 1916 1916 21079 22744 6502 6808 4366 1802 1649 1578 1176 4356 3709 58996 53494 24969 23138

13934 3715 3740 4762 5503 10062 13202 150529 145895 83851 71681 1498 434 608 740 1045 1231 1415 25912 29466 18712 20587

10998 3575 4546 4384 6548 7038 9637 84919 117144 34338 47936 6679 2240 2479 4542 5146 6415 7106 74033 83916 35099 37662 4171 1849 1710 2386 2221 3172 4444 38686 37196 12516 11443

117 10 4 15 10 1440 111 3937 55 1544

138843 56362 56636 36703 42300 97962 113130 1183232 1185775 402879 383753

81

6 Employment change 1959/62

Primary Secondary

Change

Sub-divisions 1959 1962 No Per cent 1959

Manchester 13152 9982 -3170 -24.1 305919

Bolton 669 510 - 159 -23,8 67333

Bury 159 193 + 34 +21.4 39325

Leigh 14022 12392 - 1630 -11.6 17678

Oldham 779 318 - 461 -59.2 92529

Rochdale 118 161 + 43 +36.4 39413

Altrincham 1231 1206 - 25 - 2.0 12662

Stockport 383 282 - 101 -26.4 57569

Study Area total 30513 25044 -5469 -17. 9 632428

Manchester C B 3291 2596 - 695 -21. l 161581

Note: i) Manchester Sub-division includes Manchester County Borough

ii) The small number of non-classified workers present in the Employment Record II returns have been included in the Tertiary sector

Source: Ministry of Labour Employment Record II returns

Change

1962 No

308605 +2686

66975 - 358

41534 +2209

18360 + 682

89820 -2709

38928 - 485

14346 +1684

61622 +4053

640190 +7762

161345 - 236

Tertiary 1959 1962 1959/62

Change Total Total Change

Per cent 1959 1962 1-10 Per cent employ- employ-ment ment No Per cent

+ 8,8 321252 338071 +16819 + 5. 2 640323 656658 +16335 +2,5

- 3.5 39966 44299 + 4333 -a.o. 8 107968 111784 + 3816 +3.4

+ 5.6 20732 21197 + 465 + 2.2 60216 62924 + 2708 +4.5

+ 3.8 12427 13783 + 1356 -ilO. 9 44127 44535 + 408 +O. 9

- 2.9 46263 49192 + 2929 + 6.3 139~71 139330 - 241 -0.2

- 1.2 16831 17483 + 652 + 3. 9 56362 56572 + 210 +0.4

+13,3 22810 24631 + 1821 + 7. g 36703 40183 + 3480 +9.5

+ 7.0 40010 43433 + 3423 + 8. 5 97962 105337 + 7375 +7. 5

+12.3 520291 552089 +31798 + 6.1 1183232 1217323 +34091 +2.8

- 0.1 238007 249549 +11542 + 4.8 402879 413490 +10611 +2.6

7 Employment change 1962/65

Primary Secondary

Change

Sub-divisions 1962 1965 No Per cent 1962

Manchester 9982 9001 - 981 - 9. 8 308605

Bolton 510 482 - 28 - 5.5 66975

Bury 193 165 - 28 -14. 5 41534

Leigh 12392 8669 -3723 -30.0 18360

Oldham 318 290 - 28 - 8.8 89820

Rochdale 161 97 - 64 -39. 7 38928

Altrincham 1206 1218 + 12 + 1, 0 14346

Stockport 282 330 + 48 +17, 0 61622

Study Area total 25044 20252 -4792 -19.1 640190

Manchester C B 2596 2313 - 283 -10. 9 161345

Note: i) Manchester Sub-div is ion includes Manchester County Borough

ii) The small number of non-classified workers present in the Employment Record II returns !':ave been included in the Tertiary sector

Source: Ministry of Labour Employment Record II returns

Change

1965 No Per cent

284561 -24044 - 7. 8

64028 - 2947 - 4.4

40372 - 1162 - 2. 8

19553 + 1193 + 6. 5

87725 - 2095 - 2. 3

37421 - 1507 - 3. 9

14327 19 - o. 1

61593 29 - O. l

609580 -30610 - 4, 8

142153 -19192 -11. 9

Tertiary 1962 1965 1962/65 Total change 1959/65

Change Total Total Change Change employ- employ-

1962 1965 No Per cent ment ment No Per cent No Per cent

338071 329222 -8849 - 2. 6 656658 622784 -33874 -5.1 -17539 - 2. 7

44299 45469 +1170 + 2. 7 111784 109979 - 1805 -1. 6 + 2011 + 1. 9

21197 20768 - 429 - 2, 0 62294 61305 - 1619 -2.6 + 1089 + 1. 8

13783 12545 -1238 - 9. 0 44535 40767 - 3768 -8.5 - 3360 - '1. 6

49192 52303 +3111 + 6,3 139330 140318 + 988 +0.7 + 747 + o. 5

17483 17748 + 265 + 1.5 56572 55266 - 1306 -2.3 - 1096 - 1. 9

24631 28563 +3932 +16, 0 40813 44108 + 3925 -t9.6 + 7405 +20.2

43433 47559 +4126 + 9. 5 105337 109482 + 4145 +3.9 +11520 +11. 7

552089 554177 +2088 + 0.4 1217323 1184009 -33314 -2.7 + 777 + o. 1

249549 240938 -8611 - 3.4 413490 385404 -28086 -6.8 -17475 - 4.3

87

8 Per cent unemployed 1959/66

Per cent 4. O Unemployed

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1. 5

1. 0

0.5

0 Jan July Jan July Jan July Jan July Jan July Jan July Jan July Jan July

1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 :L965 1966

Study Area -N W Region (inc Study Area)

Gt Britain ••••••••

1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966

Sub-division Jan July Jan July Jan July Jan July Jan July Jan July Jan July Jan July

Manchester 2.3 1. 6 1. 9 1.2 1.1 o. 8 1.4 1.5 2.6 2. 0 2.0 1. 2 1.4 1.0 1.1 o. 9

Bolton 3.6 2.2 1. 9 1. 5 1.1 1.1 1.6 1. 7 2.7 2.4 1. 8 1. 5 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1

Bury 3.0 1. 0 1.2 o. 7 o. 6 0.6 1. 8 o. 8 2.2 1.2 1. 0 o. 6 0.7 o. 5 0.7 o. 6

Leigh 3.1 1. 7 1. 5 1. 5 1.1 1.1 1.6 1. 8 3.4 2.8 1. 9 1. 8 1.4 1. 7 1.3 1. 5

Oldham 7. 0 2.3 1. 8 1.4 1.1 0.8 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 1. 7 1. 6 1.2 o. 9 o. 9 o. 7

Rochdale 5. 6 1.4 1.1 o. 5 o. 5 0.5 1.6 2.9 2.9 1. 8 1.3 o. 7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3

Altrincham 1. 0 1. 3 1.4 o. 9 o. 9 0.7 o. 9 0.9 2.1 1. 7 1.4 o. 9 o. 9 0.8 o. 8 0.6

Stockport 2. 6 1. 6 2. 0 1. 3 1.1 0.9 1.4 1. 6 2.6 1. 8 1. 8 1.3 1.2 1. 7 0.9 0.9

Study Area total 3. 2 1. 7 1. 7 1.1 1. 0 0.8 1. 5 1. 6 2.6 2.0 1. 8 1. 2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8

NW Region (inc Study Area) 3.6 2.3 2. 5 1. 7 1.7 1.3 2.2 2.3 3.9 2. 6 2. 6 1. 8 1. 9 1.4 1. 5 1.2

Gt Britain 2. 8 1. 8 2. 1 1.3 1. 9 1.2 2. 0 1. 8 3.6 2.0 2. 2 1.4 1.6 1.2 1. 5 1. 1

Source: i) Ministry of Labour monthly unemployment returns ii) Ministry of Labour Employment Record II returns

88

Appendix E 1 Shopping hinterlands

The method used in the Haydock Study already referred to in grading shopping centres and their amount of trade by class has been accepted. Grades of centre are defined according to the frequency of occurence of certain indices; variety, department and chain stores, markets, banks, theatres and Building Societies. Classes of trade are defined as:

l Specialised trade, (mainly durable and Largely in central Manchester).

2 Trade Localised in the major shopping centres of the Study Area.

3 Convenience or day to day goods, and durables bought in small centres.

The method used to assess the amount of trade in each class for any centre may be summarised as follows :-

(i) Hinterlands for each Level of trade are

196 1

first defined on the principle that the break point between competing centres is directly

£'000

Grade Central are a Grade 1 Grade 2

1 Manchester 27 , 981 15 , 717

llA Bolton 4, 648 2,203

Stockport 1, 396

Oldham 1,684

llB Rochdale 1, 778

Bury 916

Ashton-unde r-Lyne 1. 189

related to the time of travel between the two centres, and the sales in durable goods of each.

(ii) Population of each Hinterland is calculated.

(iii) Retail sales generated by the resident population of the Hinterland are compared with the actual sales taking place, to determine whether there is an import or and export of trade at that level. A Hinterland with a negative balance at Grade 2 level, is assumed to have no Grade l facilities, and the average exported trade per head can be calculated. Similarly, a negative balance at Grade 3 would indicate no Grade l or 2 trade, and the amount of exported trade can be calculated.

The table be low has been drawn up on this principle and is derived from the Census of Distribution data for 1961.

Grade 3 T otal

9,320 53, 018

5,280 12, 131

5, 952 7, 348

4, 933 6, 617

3, 308 5, 086

2 , 609 3,525

2. 758 3, 947

89

2 Shopping trends

Calculations of shopping trends and requirements up to 1981 have been carried out for the Conurbation as defined in the Census of Population and the Census of Distribution, as opposed to the Study Area; this area is used because data is readily available. It is necessary to outline briefly the method used in arriving at conclusions. In all forecasting of retailing it is only possible to estimate a range of possibilities, due particularly to the limitations of available data on both the past

forecasts for the Study Area, giving a 1981 expenditure a total of £583 million.

(ii) It is possible to project the trends revealed by the two Censuses of Distribution (1950 and 1961), forward to 1981 as a check on the above result, though there are difficulties due to differences between the two Censuses. Allowing for these, a total projected expenditure of the order of £610 millions is estimated.

and existing situation - particularly floor space - The results of these two separate calculations as well as future trends, expenditure per head are remarkably close, and it is considered that and the efficiency of marketing, and many other if a figure between the two - i.e. £600 million -variable factors. is taken for 1981, this is the best estimate that

The method used was as follows:

l 1961 was used as a base date; turnover and population figures are available from the Censuses, and a number of existing and proposed floor space figures were supplied by the Ministry of Housing, these being adjusted to give totals for the whole Conurbation. In 1961, turnover in the Conurbation was £381, 155, 000, and the population 2. 4 million, population in the shopping hinterland being approximately one million. Floor space was estimated from a variety of sources as approximately 25 million square feet, and the gross turnover /floor space ratio was £15. 2/sq. ft. In the Manchester City Centre, as defined in the Census of Distribution, a separate and more accurate calculation was carried out; in 1961 there was a floor space total of 3, 950, 000 sq. ft., turnover of £52. 5 million (14 per cent of the total), and a turn­over/floor space ratio of £13 . 3/sq. ft.

2 Turnover per head was projected to 1981 in two ways;

(i) The N E D C forecast growth rate for national turnover per head, (2. 8 per cent per annum), was adjusted on the basis of recent trends and in the light of projections adopted elsewhere to 2. 1 ~r cent per annum (it is considered that the N. E. D. C. figure is too high because (a} it assumes that national targets are reached; (b} it does not allow for a regional variation and (c) it takes insufficient account of the growth of new methods of marketing). The predicted turnover per head was multiplied by the predicted population, taking in this case a figure comparable to the Local Authority

90

can be made; in being higher than the more reliably projected figure, it makes some allowance for any underestimation due to non­response in the Census of Distribution, and it is Likely that this will be very close to the true situation.

3 Assuming the 1981 turnover is £600 million, the amount of floor space required in the Conurbation is dependent on the turnover /floor space ratio at that date; this is continually rising as shopping areas are redeveloped, and new efficient retailing methods are introduced. It has been estimated by the City Estates and Valuation Officer that the minimum gross Level required by a new shop in the City Centre in 1966 was £25/sq. ft., as opposed to an overall City Centre Level of £13. 3/sq. ft. in 1961; so by 1981 the overall City Centre level may well be approaching £25 per square foot, with the newest shops at that date operating at a much higher level of efficiency. It can be seen that the attainment of a high overall Level depends upon the ratio of new to old shops.

Figures for the Conurbation as a whole will be somewhat greater, since other types of trade involve Less storage, office, and other ancillary space. A single prediction is impossible, but the overall Conurbation turnover/floor space ratio may well be approaching £30 per square foot.

If for example, this ratio were £28 per square foot , then 21. 5 million square feet of floor space would be required to cater for the predicted total expenditure. Though it is difficult to ascertain tl1e 1981 floor space level, particularly due to the likely loss of space in redevelopment areas, it does appear that there

Appendix 8

Survey-Sources

Apart from censuses and other published sources, the data used for this Report is based on a series cif surveys carried out by the planning section of the former City Surveyor's Department or by the City Planning Department since 1964.

The first overall land use survey was carried out as long ago as 1944 in connection with the preparation of. the City of Manchester Plan 1945, drawn up by Mr. Rowland Nicholas, the former City Surveyor; this information was updated for the purposes of the Development Plan in 1950. For survey purposes the City Centre was subdivided into areas but direct comparisons between the surveys are difficult to make, as apart from the long interval betwe.en them, the original survey did not differentiate between offices and warehouses, two of the most critically variable uses .

Lack of detailed information about the Central Area and the need tor a quick appraisal of the situation on certain crucial issues resulted in three surveys in the early 1960's on shops, offices, and warehouses.

The Shopping Survey carried out in 1962 was of a visual nature, and was intended to assess the extent and character of shopping provision in Central Manchester. The area covered is roughly comparable with the area now referred to as the core of the City Centre. A Report of the survey was submitted to the Town Planning and Buildings Committee in April 1964 .

The Offic~ Survey which has been carried out annually since 1962 has assessed the completion rates and vacancy situation in each year. The results of these surveys are summarised in Tc;tble 9 of Appendix C.

The Warehousing Survey aimed to ascertain the views of certain commercial interests in light of the decline in the textile trade and proposals to use some of the warehousing areas of the City Centre for other purposes. An analysis of the survey formed the basis of a Policy Report submitted to the Town Planning and Buildings Committee in October 1964.

In 1965 a Comprehensive Land Use Survey was carried out for the whole City. Measurements of accommodation were recorded by 12 main types of use and over 150 sub-uses and updated to December 1966, for the area of survey; this updated survey is the source of land use information employed in Tables 1 to 10 in Appendix C .

In addition to carrying out a basic land use survey,employment and industrial surveys have been undertaken as part of the Development Plan Review process for the City ,which are in course of analysis.

The Employment Survey is based on Ministry of Labour returns for June 1965, and it established, inter alia, that some 161, 000 people work in the Area of Survey. At the present time the Land Us e Survey has not been directly related to the employment information. However, a preliminary exercise has been undertaken distributing the majority of persons employed in the Central Area (a), to one of the nine land uses as set out in Table 1, of Appendix C.

(a ) Class 1 nationally insured persons tota l only 142, 000 . The remaining employm ent, included in Classes 2 and 3, which are nationally insured persons comprising self­employed and establishments employing under five persons, is excluded from this exercise because they are not recorded separately in the Standard Industrial Classification for the Central Area.

92

Table 4 Anticipated Distribution of Accommodation 1981. '000 sq.ft.

South South Uses Total Core North East West

Shopping 7, 757 5,965 938 324 530

Offices 17,296 10, 229 2, 144 3,593 1, 330

Warehousing 9, 961 1, 793 2,143 3,416 2, 609

Industry 5,417 300 1, 359 1,482 2,276

Entertainment 3,351 1,832 214 197 1, 108

Education 3,193 48 151 2, 709 285

Residential 3, 767 460 808 1,487 1, 012

Transport 4,936 813 588 1, 715 1,820

Other Uses 6,397 1, 130 1, 060 2,436 1, 771

Total 62,075 22,570 9,405 17, 359 12, 741

96

98

Table 6 Comprehensive Planning Areas.

Advisory Schemes

Market Street

N. Market Street

Remainder

Total

Cathedral Area

Market Place

Corn Exchange

Remainder of Cathedral area within Manchester

Total

Ci vie Area Total

Mosley Street

Lower Mosley Street

Remainder

Total

Central Station

Railway Land

Remainder

Total

Total of all Advisory Schemes

may be up to 28 million square feet of retailing space. This may be contrasted with the amounts of floor space required at various Levels of efficiency - a range being taken because of the difficulty of predicting a single reliable turnover/ floor space ratio for 1981.

4 In Manchester City Centre, the 1961 turnover/ floor space ratio was £13. 3 per sq. ft. gross (a gross turnover/floor space ratio is used, since this takes into account the fact that any shop has to have a high enough turnover to cover not only selling space but all other floor space as well).

It is possible that the turnover/floor space ratio in the City Centre will be approaching £25 per sq. ft. overall, but again because of the impossibility of precision, a range of potential values may be used. In the following table this is done, and in addition various assumptions are made regarding the share of the City Centre in total Study Area trade. (The present share is 14 per cent) If all known present proposals were implemented, the total floor space could be of

£/sq ft, Floorspace requirements 1981 (seq ft )

21 28600000

22 27300000

23 26000000

24 25000000

25 24000000

26 23100000

27 22200000

28 21400000

29 20700000

30 20000000

31 19400000

32 18750000

33 18200000

the order of 5. 2 million sq. ft. at 1981. It should be emphasised that this is a broad assessment.

It can be seen that the share which the City Centre has of total trade is of great importance in determining whether the future floor space total may be justified on economic grounds alone.

In any event, unless the turnover/floor space ratio remains relatively low, - or the share of trade rises higher than 18 per cent - there is a danger of over-provision if all proposals were to be carried out. It should be emphasised again that the greater the amount of redevelopment, the higher the turnover/ floor space ratio is likely to be, due to the increased costs and the increased efficiency of the new shops. It is also important to note that all these calculations apply only to the City Centre as defined in the Census of Distribution, and that there are other proposals which would increase floor space just outside the area.

Floorspace requirements - varying share of City Centre in total trade

£/sq ft 140/o 16o/o 18o/o

16 5250000 6000000 6750000

17 4900000 5600000 6350000

18 4700000 5300000 6000000

19 4400000 5000000 5700000

20 4200000 4800000 5400000

21 4000000 4600000 5100000

22 3800000 4400000 4900000

23 3650000 4200000 4700000

24 3500000 4000000 4500000

25 3350000 3800000 4300000

26 3200000 3700000 4150000

27 3100000 3600000 4000000

91

Appendix F 1 Study Area recreational provision

Public parks Public playing fields Private open space Childrens playgrounds

Number Population Park Acres Acres Acres of children Number of Child per Sub-division 1965 Acreage per 1000 Acreage per 1000 Acreage per 1000 under 15 playgrounds playground

Manchester 1, 222, 920 3,421 2.8 913 0.7 587 0.5 317,700 186 1, 700

Bolton 251,990 699 2.8 305 1. 2 230 0.9 55, 800 53 1, 050

Bury 155, 350 577 3.7 140 0.9 182 1. 2 32., 370 46 700

Leigh 105, 730 246 2.3 83 0. 8 153 1.4 22.. 900 19 1,200

Oldham 275,840 649 2.4 225 0.8 235 o. 8 62., 400 60 1, 040

Rochdale 117,390 280 2.4 70 0.6 39 0.3 25,400 38 670

Altrincham 148,200 449 3.0 212 1.4 609 4.1 39, 900 43 790

Stockport 322, 400 1, 173 3.6 294 0.9 1,472 3.5 75, 2.00 81 928

Average provision in Study Area 2,599,820 7,493 2.9 2,242 0.9 3,507 1. 4 625,670 526 1, 189

Notes:

1 (a) Warrington R. D., Bucklew R. D., and Macclesfield R. D., have been excluded, only small part of these areas are within the Study Area;

(b) The remaining authorities within this category have had the whole of their areas and population included

2 Figures for number1 of children's play street have been excluded. If included, they lower the "Average Children per Playground" figure appreciably, mainly as a result of the lowering of the Oldham s. R. figure.

2 Manchester CB recreational provision

Public parks Public playing fields Private open space Childrens playgrounds

Number Population Park Acres Acres Acres of children Number of Child per Area 1965 acreage per 1000 Acreage per 1000 Acreage per 1000 under 15 playgrounds playground

Manchester 638,360 2,164 3.4 334 0.5 391 0.6 161,000 67 2,400 Liverpool C.B. 722,010 1,780 2.5 590 0.8 393 0.5 194,400 81 2,400 A vera~e provision in Stu y Area 2, 599, 820 7,493 2. 9 2,242 0.9 3,507 1. 4 625,670 526 1, 189

Note:

Playstreets have not been included

93

ndix G 1 Freight volumes 1962

ti on Northern E & W North Eastern London & Southern South Wales Midland North Scotland Total Riding> Midland S Eastern Western Western

n 70600 3640 770 420 630 100 220 270 920 1900 2080 81550

3860 101480 5190 610 1190 350 250 210 2050 6600 450 122240

Lnd 1000 6240 74720 3850 3390 1090 700 480 7050 5050 340 103910

210 620 3150 71900 14160 2830 600 180 1730 830 140 96350

& n 460 1130 1620 12170 151410 7660 2160 780 2690 1780 400 182260

n 50 300 630 1670 6330 38420 3790 290 1320 420 20 53240

rn 100 200 300 480 2250 2630 68700 1240 2740 580 30 79250

180 280 420 240 1220 390 1180 61320 3060 4170 80 72540

620 1460 4180 1350 3040 1280 2430 2760 106540 7840 208 131780

:rn 2230 6490 3120 730 2510 410 580 2770 6910 154020 1530 181300

1410 460 280 80 370 60 70 40 280 1320 139190 143560

80720 122300 94380 93500 186500 55220 80680 70340 135290 184510 144540 1247980

2 Traffic growth 1960/66

Road Location Date Daily Flow Growth index(l960=100) Road Location Date Daily Flow Growth index( l960=100)

A664 Manchester Road May 1960 3, 078 A6 Windsor Crescent Salford May 1960 10.540 Rochdale Borough boundary

May 1962 3,525 114.5 May 1962 10. 795 102.4

May 1964 4, 188 136.1 May 1964 10.680 101. 3

May 1966 4> 614 149.9 May 1966 13.014 123.5

A62 Standedge,Oldham May 1960 2,250 A62 Oldham Road Manchester May 1960 7.418

July 1962 2, 523 112.1 May 1962 7.513 101. 3

May 1964 2, 757 122.5 May 1964 7.123 96.0

May 1966 2,. 692 119. 6 May 1966 8. 08!7 109. 2

A57 Liverpool Road,Eccles May 1960 3,402 A6 Stockport Road Manchester May 1960 7. 973

May 1962 4, 128 121.3 May 1962 8.033 100. 8

May 1964 5,. 274 155.0 May 1964 6.908 86. 7

May 1966 5,.944 174.7 May 1966 9.589 120. 3

A58 Bury Road1 Bolton May 1960 4,.596 A560 Stockport Road May 1960 4.893

Edgeley Stockport May 1962 4,. 057 88.3 May 1962 5.619 114. 8

May 1964 5,441 118.4 May 1964 6.379 130. 4

May 1966 6,.100 132.8 May 1966 6. 860 140. 2

A56 Whitefield, Bury May 1960 6,493 A56 Bowdon Cheshire Sept 1959 6.048

May 1962 7, 176 110.5 May 1962 7.298 115. 2

May 1964 a, 156 125.6 May 1964 8.753 138. 1

May 1966 8, 968 138. l May 1966 7.867 124. 0

Total for 10 Census points 1960 56.990 (61. 280)

1962 60.667 ( 65. 233) 106. 5

1964 65. 695 (70. 601) 115. 2

1966 73. 735 ( 79. 285) 129.4

Notes: i) The survey at Bowdon in 1959 was the pilot survey for all other sites

ii) The totals in brackets are adjusted from May flows to August peak

iii) One direction flow, into the Study Area over 11 hour period of count

97

t -.

Sources and relevant publications

General

R J Nicholas: City of Manchester Plan: Jarrold 1945; and Manchester and District Regional Planning Proposals: Jarrold 1945

R J Nicholas and M J Hellier: South Lancashire and North Cheshire Advisory Plan: Richard Bates 1947.

Manchester Corporation: Development Plan for the County Borough of Manchester, 1951.

\ L P Green: Provincial Metropolis: Geo. Allen and Unwin, 1959.

British Association: Manchester and Its Region, 1962.

J Department of Economic Affairs: The North­west - a Regional Study H MS 0 1965.

North-West Economic Planning Council: An Economic Strategy for the North-West 1966.

North-West Economic Planning Council: Strategy II - The North-West of the 1970's. HMS 0, 1968.

Manchester City Planning Department: City Centre Map 1967.

Planning Advisory Group: The Future of Development Plans. H MS 0 1965.

Town and Country Planning Act 1968.

JS Millar: Manchester City Region - review and prospect. Town Planning Institute Summer School 1968.

SELNEC Area Land Use/Transportation Study: Technical Working Papers 1968.

Population and Housing

General Register Office: Census of England and Wales H MS 0 1951, 1961, 1966.

General Register Office: Annual Estimates of the Population of England and Wales and of Local Authority Areas. H MS 0

Ministry of Housing and Local Government: Old Houses into New Homes. H MS 0 1968.

Ministry of Housing and Local Government: The Deeplish Study - Improvement Possibilities in a District of Rochdale. HMS 0 1966.

Hallmark Securities Ltd., : The Halliwell Report - A study for the redevelopment of an urban twilight area, 1966.

Ministry of Housing and Local Government: Local Housing Statistics - England and Wales. H MS 0 Quarterly.

Ministry of Housing and Local Government: Report of the Inquiry into the proposed Development of Land at Lymm for Manchester overspill, H MS 0 1958.

Ministry of Housing and Local Government: Central Lancashire: Study for a City H M S 0 1967.

Ministry of Housing and Local Government: The Expansion of Warrington - Consultants' Proposals H MS 0 1966.

Wilson and Womersley: Wilmslow Comprehensi.ve Plan, 1966.

J B Cullingworth: Housing Needs and Planning Policy. Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1960.

Economics and Employment

General Register Office: Census of England and Wales H MS 0 1951, 1961, 1966.

Central Statistical Office: Abstract of Regional Statistics HMS 0 1965, 1966, 1967.

Central Statistical Office: The Standard Industrial Classification H M S 0 1958.

Forecasts of the Working Population 1966-81: Ministry of Labour Gazette, November 1966.

Lancashire and Merseyside Industrial Development Association: An Industrial Policy for the North-West 1966.

Lancashire and Merseyside Industrial Development Association: The Decline of the Cotton and Coal Mining Industries of Lancashire 1967.

99

S Taylor: A Study of Post-War Office Developments. Journal of the Town Planning Institute, Vol 52 No 2, Feb 1966.

D M Smith: Industrial Britain: The North­west; 1969

Shopping

University of Manchester, Department of Town and Country Planning: Regional Shopping Centres in North-West England. 2 Vols 1964, 1967.

Board of Trade: Report on the Census of Distribution and Other Services H M S 0 1961.

T Rhodes and R Whitaker: Forecasting Shopping Demand. Journal of the Town Planning Institute Vol 53 No 5. May 1967.

Manchester City Estates and Valuation Officer: A Survey of Retail Shopping in Manchester 1966.

Recreation

Countryside Act: H M S 0 1968.

British Travel and Holidays Association/ University of Keele: Pilot National Recreation Survey.

British Travel and Holiday Association/Peak Park Planning Board: The Peak District National Park Survey.

Cheshire County Council: Recreation in Cheshire - Preliminary Report - May 1967.

Lancashire County Council: Survey of Existing Facilities for Sport and Physical Recreation - Preliminary Report - Volume II Parts 6, 7 and 8.

Transport

South-East Lancashire and North-East Cheshire Area Highway Engineering Committee: SELNEC Highway Plan 1962.

Ministry of Transport: Traffic in Towns (Buchanan Report) H MS 0 1963.

100

British Railways Board: The re-shaping of British Railways (Beeching Report) H MS 0 1963.

Ministry of Transport/British Railways Board: British Railways Network for Development HMS 0 March, 1967.

Ministry of Housing and Local Government/ Ministry of Transport: Parking in Town Centres. Planning Bulletin No 7 H M S 0 1965.

J C Tanner: Forecasts of Vehicle Ownerships in Great Britain. Roads and Road Construction, Nov/Dec 1965.

Ministry of Transport, Annual Reports.

Transport Act H MS 0 1968.

Manchester Corporation: Joint Report on Car Parking, 1967.

Manchester Corporation/Ministry of Transport: Manchester Rapid Transit Study (De Leuw, Hennessey, Chadwick, O'hEocha and Partners - consultants) 1967.

Acknowledgements

In the production of this report, assistance has been received from many sources. The City Planning Officer particularly wishes to acknowledge the following:

Proceedings of the Working Party of the Planning Sub-Committee of the SELNEC Area Land Use/Transportation Study -population and employment data and forecasts.

Ministry of Housing and Local Government -population and housing data, shopping floor­space figures, information on post-war developments in England and Wales.

Ministry of Labour - employment data.

North West Industrial Development Association - information concerning closure of collieries and mills.

Lancashire County Council (County Planning Officer) - 'catchment areas' of Halle Orchestra and Library Theatre.

British Rail - passenger flows.

Manchester Guardian and Evening News, Ashton-under-Lyne Reporter Group of Newspapers, Bolton Evening News, Bury Times Group, Lancashire and Cheshire County Newspapers Group, Lancashire Observer /Times Group, North Cheshire Herald Group, Oldham Chronicle and Evening Chronic Le, South Lancashire Newspapers Group, Stockport Advertiser, Warrington Guardian Group. A LL for information as to areas of circulation of newspapers.

Maps are based on the Ordnance Survey with the sanction of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office. Crown Copyright Reserved.

Photographs:

Manchester Corporation Parks Department Manchester Central Library Airviews

101

Errata

Page 9, paragraph 3/1 For 9.6% read 9.4%

Page 10, table 1 Armed Forces - for% read number

Page 20, paragraph 4/8 For availability read allocation

Page 25, Paragraph 5/2 For diagram 13 read diagram 11

Page 29, table 6 Merseyside 1951/66 - for+ 1.28 read· 1.28

Page 32, paragraph 5/19 For 384,000 read 402,000

Page 33, table 8 D: Net inward commuting

Page 77, appendix D2 Headings in each column should read £/head

Page 79, appendix D3 Great Britain: Primary Industry 1959 should read 1,492,890 Great Britain: Primary Industry 1966 should read 1,056, 152 Great Britain: Tertiary Industry 1966 should read 13,551,753

Page 83 - appendix D5 SIC 7 : Rochdale, Total Change. Read +17 SIC 7 : Altrincham, Total Change. Read +8 SIC 2: Stockport, Total Change. Read +1

Page 1 etc. The "SE LNEC Area - Land Use/Transportation Study" should more correctly be termed the "SELNEC Transportation Study"

Consultations

1. As stated earlier, this Report was designed as a technical contribution to bring together research material and it is not intended in any way as a policy document. Nevertheless, it was felt that following its preparation, draft copies should be sent to a number of local authorities and other interested bodies in the contribution for comment. The replies which were received are of interest and value, and the points made reflect varied approaches towards the assessment of the areas problems and its future.

2. The reply from the Department of Employment and Productivity was concerned primarily with drawing attention to factual matters. These comments were helpful, and corrections or adjustments, as appropriate, have been made to the text of the report.

3. The remainder of the letters are reproduced below. Together they form a valuable supplement and thanks are due to their authors both for the contributions themselves and for giving permission for their inclusion.

BOROUGH PLANNING OFFICER COUNTY BOROUGH OF BOLTON

Thank you for your letter of 15th January, 1970. I have carefully considered your Draft Report, and I have a number of comments to make.

As a collection of.statistical material relating to the conurbation, the report will no doubt prove to be a valuable source of r11ference. Its usefulness in this respect should not be underestimated, and I hope that the final document will retain, in full, the statistical appendices.

The analytical discussion based upon the statistics is, in general, both interesting and well reasoned. However, the interpretation of the figures does involve a number of implicit assumptions about the sub­regional structure and how it is changing. The analysis, while valid, is coloured by your Authority's view of the sub-region. Other interpretations, some of them radically different from yours, could well be made. The bias is, of course, quite acceptable provided that it is fully admitted in the report. In paragraphs 1/5 and 9/2 a claim to a certain degree of objectivity is made. In my view, th is claim is not entirely justified, and I feel these paragraphs should be amended.

Examples of the bias to which I refer are evident in the sections on shopping and on transport, where there is a fundamental assumption that the central area of Manchester will continue to be the most conveniently accessible part of the Study Area, and thus should develop its share of shops which concentrate on more specialised or durable goods (I refer particularly to paragraph 9/48). I feel that in the future, if not at present, Manchester's claim to optimum sub-regional accessibility may be disputed. There are a number of places in other parts of the Study Area which are being increasingly well served by the motorway and main road network and which are less congested than Manchester. The recent growth in retail floor area in Bolton would suggest that there is greater potential for a number of high quality shopping centres in the sub-region than the report suggests.

The section of the report which deals with housing is very interesting. Paragraphs 3/19 and 4n (among others) indicate that areas in the northern fringe of the conurbation are likely to play a most important role in meeting the demands for new housing in the Study Area. Paragraph 9/26 however, implies that Planning policies are restricting growth in these areas. In Bolton, at least, a considerable amount of undeveloped land has been set aside for future residential development. This will be devoted mainly to private housing, the availability of which is of vital importance in reducing the rate of outward migration from the Study Area; its importance in this respect has, I feel, been underestimated in the report.

On a slightly different point connected with housing, the report has not tu lly considered the possible effetts of the new Housing Act (which does not appear to have been passed when the report went to press). By encouraging the improvement of areas of older housing, this measure may affect the rate of clearance and consequently of sites available for redevelopment, while at the same time preserving some of the housing stock. This could, therefore, involve modification of the assumptions underlying your assessment of the housing demand and supply equation.

At a more detailed level, there are one or two places where clarification seems necessary. In paragraphs 6/5 to 6/11 shopping space is discussed; the source of your estimate of current retail floor area is not revealed, and in your projections, it is not clear whether or not you have taken into account the loss of floor space as a resu It of clearance schemes. In paragraph 5/26 you suggest that an area of 200 acres has an employment potential of 16,000, this implies an employment density of 80 workers/acre, which seems much too high to assume for modern manufacturing industry. In paragraph 2/4 and Map 2, you define the Study Area; however, much of the discussion and many of the maps are of an area which is different from this selected area, and to avoid unnecessary confusion, I think this should be pointed out.

There is a shortage of comprehensive Planning research material relating to the Manchester conurbation, and your report is bound to have more influence than you anticipate on the preparation of a context for the first wave Structure Plans. I therefore feel that it is particularly important for you to take note of the comments in the third and fourth paragraphs of this letter.

I hope that all my comments are helpful to you.

BOROUGH ENGINEER, SURVEY AND PLANNING OFFICER COUNTY BOROUGH OF BURY

I thank you for the opportunity of studying the draft report at this stage. I have no observation to make on this basically factual document which I found gave a useful all-round picture of the conurbation.

My own examination of the context in which Bury functions naturally overlaps the report, and both my study and your report underline the same problems and opportunities for solution.

In conclusion, I would like to say that the compilation of information in such a form could prove extremely useful to public understanding and awaren.ess of the problems and to public discussion, as well as to our further study within the Borough.

THE SECRETARY MANCHESTER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE

I refer to your letter of 15th January, CJS/VP, under the above heading. As you were not able to supply sufficient copies of the draft Report for members of the Chamber's Municipal Affairs Committee to have one each, the copies available were circulated, and members have not had a great deal of time in which to study the contents.

Committee members have, however, found the Report very interesting, and feel that you are to be congratulated on bringing together all the facts into such a readable form - this despite one or two repititious unclear paragraphs, for example, para. 9/47.

Some members have offered further comment, summarised briefly as follows :-

Statistics. It is a pity that much of the Report is based on out-of­date statistics (e.g. information regarding Ringway Airport is dated back to 1966, and the base date for retail information is 1961). In addition, the definition of the Study Area does not correspond to the Maud recommended area, and before final publication it would be advisable to bring these into I ine.

Transport. It is noted, and regretted, that no mention is made in the Report of the plans drawn up some years ago by Mr. R. J. Nicholai"• and the Railway engineers for linking districts to the South of Manchester with those to the North by means of a direct rail route from Stockport to Bolton and Altrincham to Bury, with an interchange in the city at St. Mary's Gate.

In para. 8/2 it is stated that the main pattern of communications is East/West; one Committee member is inclined to challenge this, believing that it should read "North/South".

Roads. In regard to Appendix "G" it has been noted that the growth of traffic on radial roads which have not been improved has been very marked. The Committee believe that this serves to illustrate the pressing need for a larger share of national finance to be made available for roads in th is area.

You will appreciate that lack of time has prevented a very detailed study of the draft, but, as stated previously, the Committee found much of interest in it. Bearing in mind that the Report is not a policy document and is not intended to influence any future proposals, the Chairman does not feel that a meeting need be arranged at this stage. We should, however, appreciate being kept in touch with developments, and are happy to have had the opportunity of commenting.

I return herewith the five copies of the draft which have so far been received back from Committee members.

COUNTY PLANNING OFFICER CHESHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL

Thank you for your letter of the 15th January 1970 and for the draft copy of the above report.

You will recall that after Mr. Burns had given Mr. Dunstan a preliminary draft copy of the report last summer ·1 wrote to you on the 15th September 1969 in connection with two points, i.e. private building in South Lancashire and the derivation of population estimates.

I feel that I must now repeat my observations with regard to the latter. By the principles adopted for the purposes of the S.E. L.N.E.C. Study total population, and indeed total employment, is derived from "basic" employment; this is the independent variable, population the dependent. Hence, if it is considered judicious in looking to the future to apply a range of activity rates, and I agree that it is, then the corollary of the method employed in S.E. L.N. E.C. would be to postulate.a change in population from a change in activity rate. Therefore, an activity rate of 44.8% would mean a total population of 2.840 millions.

There are a few points in addition to the above which I should now like to comment upon :

Para 3/15 and Table 2

I think that it would now be most inadvisable to employ the regional population projections used in the N,W.Study. As you know, the 1966 based projections showed a materially different picture from those used in the Study. Now, with the '68 based figures issued last July showing an even greater decline in the rate of projected growth, I'm sure that you would save time and trouble by amending the regional figures and perhaps examining the implications of the revised population trends in paras. 3/15 to 3/21.

Para 4/4

As you know, the Warrington Master Plan was published towards the end of last year and the Consultants recommended an intake programme commencing in 1971 with 1,600 migrants rising to 4,800 people a year, the maximum, by about mid. 1973.

This implementation programme is different from that referred to on page 19 of your report. Would you foresee an impact on the City's housing needs arising from the programme now being suggested by the Consultants for the new Town?

Para 4/11

You say, apropos rehabilitation, " .......... that dwellings in the current clearance programmes will not be suitable for this kind of treatment". I am sure that you will appreciate the concern felt in this Authority over the likely impact of changes in housing policy arising from the adoption of rehabilitation, and I should be most interested to hear in detail of the reasons behind your statement. Does it simply reflect the comments contained in the White Paper: "Old Houses into New Homes"? Does it apply to the Study Areas as a whole?

Para 4/18 and Table!>

In view of the wide range of likely housing need derived from the juxtaposition of the various factors listed in Table 5, I should like to say again how I believe that the establishment of a comprehensive and rigorous housing information system is foremost among the needs for effective planning in this region.

Appendix C, Table 1

The figures given refer to schemes started since 1958. It could be helpful to mention this.

Finally, I think the following details may help to conclude the errata which you sent with your report:

Page 14, Table 2

Add to existing erratum "Natural" not "National" over columns 2 and 3.

Page 62, Para 9/59

"Attributable".

Page 68

There should, I think, be a fine black line opposite "Journey to Work Sub-Areas".

However, as in my letter of the 15th September, may I say again how inappropriate it would be to conclude my observations on your reply report on relatively trivial points, and I must end by mentioning how timely I think your contribution will be to the extremely difficult regional and sub-regional problems we are all having to face.

COUNTY PLANNING OFFICER LANCASHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL

I am very grateful to you for giving me the opportunity to comment on your Sub-Regional Context Report.

I have read the Report in the light of your statement in the preliminary section that it is simply a collection of the research and survey work undertaken towards the Review of the Development Plan under the old planning legislation and is in no sense a policy document. The comments made below are merely to point out any discrepancies or to outline the County's position where slight differences of approach seem to emerge. I believe the Report will be a very useful contribution to the work of the Director of the proposed North West Regional Study and my comments are as follows:-

1. In paragraph 2.8 the Report comments on the Green Belt proposals thus:- "In the future it would appear more likely that th" emphasis will move towards their positive utilisation for agriculture, leisure, or even appropriate forms of development as part of a regional planning strategy, as distinct from the more negative approach of regarding them primarily as barriers between existing settlements".

In Strategy II the N.W.E .P.C. say: "We should tlke-to see the open space between the towns in the congested central belt of the Region re-examined and treated as a positive feature .... besides providing for agriculture, the Green Belt might well accommodate the first tier of a hierarchy of open spaces, beginning with urban play areas for children, and extending through municipal parks, golf courses, and country parks to national parks".

The view in the Report of the future of the Green Belt between neighbouring towns is clearly in line with the North West Economic Planning Council's and, indeed, Lancashire would also argue for a more positive attitude towards the Green Belt in the years ahead.

However, the retention of the Green Belt remains part of the County Council's policy, and your report emphasises the use of the Green Belt to prevent the merging of communities within the conurbation without giving equal weight to the other objective of checking the further outward sprawl of the conurbation as a whole. In the County Council's Green Belt written statement, as submitted to the Minister, it was said: "To check the substantial expansion of the Merseyside and South East Lancashire built up areas, and to prevent neighbouring towns from merging into one another, it is considered that a formal Green Belt should be defined in relation to these areas" .

Thus, it should be recognised in the Sub-Regional Context that one of the prime purposes of the Green Belt in South-East Lancashire is to prevent the substantial outward growth of the conurbation.

2. It should be made clear that the lower population forecasts for the North West produced by the Registrar General in 1969 have not been taken into account in any way in the preparation of the population section. In Table 2 on page 14 the expected population of the North West in 1981 is given as 7,456,000 and the SELNEC Transportation Study figures for the Sub-Region for 1966-81 have not been modified from the time they were prepared in 1967/68.

The revised 1968 - based Regional population total for 1981 was 7, 115,000 compared with the above 7,456,000 and the Manchester Sub-Region total was down to 2,487,000 compared with the previous forecast by the Ministry of Housing of 2,641,000.

The recently received 1969 - based Regional figure gives a 1981 population of 7,040,000 - even lower than the 1968 - based total.

It would probably be difficult at this stage for you to break down the new Sub-Regional population estimates by district or to determine precisely the effect of improvement of older housing but the Report could be brought up-to-date as regards the Regional situation and a note might be included to draw attention to the status of the Sub-Regional figures used in the light of the changed situation.

3. Whilst it is appreciated that the Report is referring to clearance and redevelopment in Manchester when stating that the New Towns of Warrington and Central Lancashire will be unable to make a contribution to population problems before 1981, it is felt that the general emphasis on the longer term significance of the New Towns in the Report may be a little misleading. A decision on Central Lancashire New Town is imminent and, if the decision is favourable, a considerable growth is planned before 1981 as well as after that year. Similarly, the Warrington proposals allow for a population growth of up to 60,000 in the New Town area in the period 1966-81. In the case of both New Towns the emphasis on private development is growing. The Government asked New Town Corporations some time ago to aim for a 50/50 split between private and public developm1mt and in C.LN.T. the proportion of private growth would be much higher. In this way, the two New Towns are capable of contributing to the Manchester Sub-Regional problem in the reasonably short term as well as after 1981.

4. Paragraph 9.40 of the Report states that many of the jobs in Manchester lost through demolition will be replaced within the City boundaries and that within the Central Area new developments will more than replace all the employment that existed prior to redevelopment.

The County Council's view on industry in the conurbations is similar to that of the Economic Planning Council. This stresses the need to locate industry where it can operate most efficiently and to repl11Ce unsuitable and badly sited industrial premises with new one$, not necessarily near to the old premises but where the industry can grow in an efficient location. Hence, Lancashire"s aim is to site 1 good deal of indu~ry on spacious estates near main lines of communication and away from heavily congested areas.

such 115 Bolton, Stockport and Stratford, there seems to be some justification for expecting a continued spread of the study area's trade, rather than greater concentration on Manchester's city-centre. Although there will undoubtedly be an absolute increase in the amount of money spent in the city-centre, it seems rather unlikely that its proportionate SHARE of the total trade of the study area will increase above the present level of 14% (Appendix El.

Transport

11. We recognise the need to improve accessibility into the central area of Manchester, particularly in connection with the satisfactory fulfilment of its metropolitan role as a centre of regional culture and entertainment. Clearly the function of the city-centre is of more than city-wide or even sub-regional significance; it must be considered as a fundamental part of regional strategy.

12.We notice, however, that the solutions to the problem of traffic congestion which the report puts forward are focussed wholly upon transportation aspects - the improvement of bus and rail transport, the control of car-parking etc. - and seem to ignore the part of which might be played by reorganising land-uses. It might help to relieve congestion, for instance, if some traffic generating activities were decentralised from the inner areas of the conurbation to the out-skirts. In the employment section (para 5/26) it is stated that a high proportion of the jobs in the city which are displaced th rough redevelopment will be relocated in industrial redevelopment areas within the city and that no less than 200 acres of land ADDITIONAL to those already occupied by industry and commerce will be available by 1981, with an employment potential for about 16,000 people. We wonder whether it might not help to tackle the congestion problem if mme of the city's redeveloped industry were encouraged to seek sites further afield. What little research has been done on the question of industrial relocation seems to suggest that whereas it may be very difficult to persuade firms to move long distances when they are displaced by redevelopment they are often willing to move relatively lhort distances to sites within the same sub-region.

13. It is very useful to have so much information on the Manchester city·region brought together in this way and we found the report a most inte1'11Sting and valuable piece of work. The report is particularly useful for the way in which it identifies the trends affecting the sub-region and highlights the important planning problems about which broad policy decisions may have to be taken in a regional context before structure planning can proceed satisfactorily. As you know, preparations are still being made for the formal arra1111ements under which joint structure plan work can proceed and your city-region report will provide one useful starting point for the more wide-ranging investigations that will be necessary once these arrangements have beer. finalised.

MINISTRY OF TECHNOLOGY NORTH WEST REGIONAL OFFICE

I am replying to your letter of 15 January addressed to the Board of Trade. Ministry of Technology has become responsible for the industrial aspects of regional planning following the reorganisation of Government Departments.

The essembled material in your draft is of great interest as factual materiat conveniently assembled and will, I am sure, provide a very useful background for future planning.

As a study, not intended as a policy document or to influence future proposals, we find little to critici98.

I would, however, suggest that revision of population estimates since the document was prepared may be of material importance and there are I believe changes in the housing demand situation recently emerging which are not covered in this material. Since it is hoped also that some standard basis can be developed for national derived regional and local economic and employment forecasts, you may find that the forward looking paragraphs on housing and employment may be subject to revision. I would suggest too that the comments on investment in the North West (p 27 paragraph 5/3 and p 59 paragraph 9/29) are misleading. Later figures give the Regiona better showing but the point at issue is that in their context the comments are apt to be taken as relating to industrial investment, whereas your table shows that it was true only of the aggregate of investment in all sectors. They hardly belong without adequate qualification in the context of industrial development!

There is a drafting error in paragraph 5/32 p 35 which has apparently been overlooked. "The financial incentives available to these areas" can only relate to the Development Areas (and in due course to North East Lancashire) and New Towns associated with them to the 11cxtent specified in the Industrial Development Act, 1966. There are no financial incentives under current legislation for the New Towns at Warrington and (proposed) Leyland/Chorley. The relevant legislation is Section 15(6) of the 1966 Act which provides that localities may be treated as if they were included in Development Areas where the population is to be increased by migration from a Development Area and where the increase will be substantial in relation to the original population of the locality.

Whatever reservations there may be about statistics relating to the future it seems probable that the main issues for Regional planning will not materially be affected and these are well expressed in the document.

THE DIRECTOR NORTH WEST INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

In general terms this seems to be an excellent document, very well produced and dealing with a wide range of aspects in the Greater Manchester area. There has been a lack of informa·tion on these subjects in the past, and this will undoubtedly be welcomed by many different groups and organisations. However, it would seem that the Association's comments might well be confined to the chapter dealing with employment, with which we are most closely concerned.

Employment

On the whole this is a balanced statement of recent chan19s in Manchester's employment structure, and its likely future 11eeds. The case is put quite clearly, without appearing to be too parochial, and without detracting from the case of other parts of the Region. One point however should be made, that is the figures do appear now to be somewhat dated,.since 1969 insured population figures are now available. The following consists of a number of comments in detail on the text.

Page 25 Par. 5/2 this reads as if the whole range of financial incentives now available had been available since 1945. In fact there has of course, been a very substantial increase in the amount of assistance available to Development Areas (and subsequently Intermediate Areas) since 1965. It is certainly reasonable to emphasise the fact that the study area has received relatively little in the way of new growth industries. Indeed such industry as has been attracted into the area, has often been attracted into old industrial premises. Although this has helped to avoid any serious unemployment, and has proved a useful transisitional stage, it is probably true to say that the need is now increasingly for new development in new buildings which would help to revitalise the study area's industrial structure.

Page 30 Par. 5/9. The position of the engineering industry has changed significant ly since 1966. There have of course, been contractions at GEC/EE at Trafford Park and elsewhere, and in the textile engineering industry. It does therefore seem unlikely that as stated at the end of this paragraph that the engineering industry's employment growth is likely to continue in the area.

Page 32 Par. 5/20 The above comments are particular ly applicable to employment in the central-area. Here it seems likely that the central area's growth sector in the immediate future will be in the professional and scientific services, which should continue to -grow as a result of development of higher education in this area.

Page 34 Par. 5/24 and 5/25. There has already apparently, been some reduction in the voluntary outward migration from the central area and taken in conjunction with the increase in industrial decline in this area, it does seem extremely unlikely that there could be any possibility of a surplus of jobs in the near future. Although there has been no significant increase in unemployment a recent paper submitted by the Corporation's management team points to the fact that the female activity rafe in the conurbation declined by 1% from 47% in 1961to46% in 1966, at a time when female activity rates are rising in almost every other part of the country. Although this may not be significant, it may possibly reflect the beginning of a trend in the conurbation towards lower activity rates.

Page 35 Par. 5/32. The whole problem of financial assistance within the Region does need re-examination. With increasing competition for mobile industry from the New Towns, the Intermediate area, and the Development Areas. coupled with the fact that there has been a substantial reduction in the supply of mobile industry, it will be increasingly difficult for those areas with no special inducements to attract industry. This paragraph does almost suggest that financial incentives are available at Warrington New Town. The Development Corporation is, of course, now in existence there and no incentives are available. It also seems unlikely that there will be any financial incentives at the designate New Town of Leyland/Chorley either. Indeed in both cases tlnire will probably be difficulties in attracting new industrial growth, although they should be in a better position than the conurbation in regard to industrial sites.

THE SECRETARY NORTH WEST SPORTS COUNCIL

Further to your letter of 15th January 1970, I am now able to forward observations on the above Draft Report.

Most of the section on Recreation is fact, but where future policy has been mentioned there were disagreements. Certain statements in the report were welcomed, for example, in para. 7 /9 where it is said that "increasing emphasis must be directed to the possibility of reclaiming and rehabilitating the derelict and unused land in both the inner and outer areas for recreational use", and also in paras. 7 /10 and 9/54 where such regional schemes as those in the Croal/lrwell and Mersey Valleys are commended.

The report mentions in para. 1 /5 and 9/1 that it is not a policy document, nor is it intended to pre-judge any strategic planning proposals which may emerge as a result of the machinery set up under the new Town and Country Planning Act. Viewed in such a light, at least insofar as recreation is concerned, the document will be a usefu I reference for research and survey work so far carried out, and will provide valuable background material in the preparation of a sub-regional context under the New Style Development Plan system.

One small point on detail is made: in regard to para. 7/2, it may have been helpful if some reference had been made to the problem of relating supply and demand, in particular to the problem of 'frustrated' demand.

I regret that it has not been possible to forward these aomments at an earlier date, but I hope that they will be helpful.

BOROUGH AR CHITECT AND PLANNING OFFICER COUNTY BOROUGH OF ROCHDALE

Thank you for the above report which I have read with interest.

I would endorse the views expressed that many of the area's long term problems, particularly those concerning housing and transportation, can only be solved at the regional and sub-regional scale. Furthermore, in order to reverse the migration trends of the past years it is essential that new industr ial development, particularly the growth industries, be encou raged in the area and that a conscious effort be mounted t o improve environmental conditions.

SELNEC PASSE NGER TRANSPORT EXECUTIVE

Thank you for your letter of 15th January and for letting us have a preview of this Repo rt on this subject. I have read this with interest and have only ve ry minor comments to make on it and these are:·

1. I think it would be clearer if the t itles of diagrams 20-23 were transposed to be nearer the diagrams referred to and to be not separated by the text.

2. In diagram 24, it is not clear from the notation that the red lines represent the rai lways.

3. In paragraph 8/23 I th ink ment ion can be made of the use of feeder buses so as to improve the use of the existing railway lines.

As you say in your covering letter this report draws together a great deal of information which should be invaluable to many people. However, I think it is a pity that you are unable to await the findings of the S.E.L.N.E.C. Transportat ion Study.