PRoACC

Research proposal

Functions and services of mangrove ecosystem under climate change conditions:

a case study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Mentor: Dr. Erik de Ruyter van Steveninck

UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, Netherlands

Researcher: Ms. Nguyen Thi Kim Cuc

Water Resources University, Hanoi, Vietnam

May 2010

Table of contents

1. Introduction.........................................................................................................................11.1. Project title..............................................................................................................................11.2. Acronym.................................................................................................................................11.3. Location of the research..........................................................................................................11.4. Participating partners (other than UNESCO-IHE):................................................................11.5. Project Idea and Concept........................................................................................................2

Description of the research project..........................................................................................41.6. Rationale and background.......................................................................................................41.7. Problem statement & research questions...............................................................................51.8. Overall & specific objectives..................................................................................................51.9. Research methodology and implementation...........................................................................61.9. Anticipated results & deliverables..........................................................................................81.10. Role of linked MSc and PhD studies....................................................................................81.11. Dissemination & outreach.....................................................................................................81.12. Integration with other PROACC studies...............................................................................81.13. Link with other on-going UNESCO-IHE and/or partner initiatives and/or activities .........91.14. Schedule of activities............................................................................................................9

2. Project management...........................................................................................................92.1. Management arrangements.....................................................................................................92.2. Monitoring & evaluation.........................................................................................................92.3. Budget...................................................................................................................................10

Annex A: Logical Framework..............................................................................................11References..............................................................................................................................12

1. Introduction

1.1. Project titleFunctions and services of mangrove ecosystem under climate change conditions: a

case study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

1.2. Acronym [max. 25 characters]

1.3. Location of the research [region and/or country]The study will take place in coastal area of Ben Tre Province in the Mekong Delta,

Vietnam (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Map of study area

1.4. Participating partners (other than UNESCO-IHE):

Partner 1: Water Resources UniversityAcronym: WRUAddress: 175 Tay Son, Dong Da, Hanoi, VietnamType of organization: UniversityPartner 2: Mangrove Ecosystem Research Division,

Center for Natural Resources and Environmental Studies,Vietnam National University, Viet Nam

Acronym: MERD/CRES/VNUAddress: 58 Ngo Thinh Hao 1, Ton Duc Thang, Hanoi, VietnamType of organization: Research Centre

Study area

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1.5. Project Idea and Concept(Describe in a concise paragraph the main research question, the main hypothesis and the conceptual approach of the proposed project) [max. 500 words]

Mangroves are an ecosystem dominated by a diverse yet small group of tropical tree species that have by parallel evolution developed special physiological and morphological adaptations to grow in intertidal conditions (Lugo and Snedaker, 1974; Chapman, 1976). The forests are known to be highly productive ecosystems with the capacity to efficiently trap suspended material from the water column. This is because their dense vegetation tends to promote sedimentation (Furukawa and Wolanski, 1996; Furukawa et al., 1997; Kristensen et al., 2008). As a consequence mangrove development over geological time can be reconstructed from the fragmented sedimentary records of their own deposits. Being a wet environment, anaerobic conditions of mangrove sediment can allow the long-term preservation of these records. Because of the regular tidal flooding and draining in many mangrove forests, the material exchange with adjacent water can be very efficient. Therefore, mangrove forests are recognized as an important wetland for being essential habitat for fauna communities such as fishes, crabs, shrimps, etc. and organic carbon storage. For centuries, mangroves have contributed significantly to the socio-economic lives of coastal dwellers. Mangroves have been traditionally exploited as building materials, charcoal, firewood, tannin, food, bird feathers, honey, herbal medicines, and many other forest products (Hong & San, 1993).

Most ecosystems provide a multitude of functions and many aspects need to be considered (Figure 2). In this study, the concept of ecosystem functions and services are the central element. The first step in the analysis involves the identification of the ecological internal and external factors that affect the ecosystem structure and processes. The next step is working on the translation of ecological complexity (structures and processes) into a more limited number of ecosystem functions (Figure 2). These functions, in turn, provide the goods and services that are valued by humans. At the first period, the idea of evaluate mangrove ecosystem will be considered. If it is possible, the goods and services of the mangroves will be evaluated.

In the ecological literature, the term “ecosystem function” has been subject to various, and sometimes contradictory, interpretations. Sometimes, the concept is used to describe the internal functioning of the ecosystem (e.g. maintenance of energy fluxes, nutrient (re)cycling, food-web interactions), and sometimes it relates to the benefits derived by humans from the properties and processes of ecosystems (e.g. food production and waste treatment). In this research, ecosystem functions are defined as “the capacity of natural processes and components to provide goods and services that satisfy human needs, directly or indirectly” (de Groot, 1992). Mangrove ecosystem functions will be grouped into five primary categories* (based on de Groot, 1992; de Groot et al., 2002, de Groot, 2006). * (1)Regulation functions: This group of functions relates to the capacity of the ecosystems to regulate essential ecological processes and life support systems through hydrological, biogeochemical cycles and other biospheric processes. Regulation functions maintain a “healthy” ecosystem at different scale levels and, at the

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Figure 2. Role of function-analysis and valuation (after de Groot, 1992; de Groot et al., 2002, de Groot, 2006).

biosphere level, provide and maintain the conditions for life on Earth. In many ways, these regulation functions provide the necessary pre-conditions for all other functions.(2) Habitat functions: Natural ecosystems provide refuge and reproduction-habitat to wild plants and animals and thereby contribute to the (in situ) conservation of biological and genetic diversity and evolutionary processes. As the term implies, habitat functions relate to the spatial conditions needed to maintain biotic (and genetic) diversity and evolutionary processes. The availability, or condition, of this function is based on the physical aspects of the ecological niche within the biosphere. These requirements differ for different species groups, but can be described in terms of the carrying capacity and spatial needs (minimum critical ecosystem size) of the natural ecosystems which provide them.(3) Production functions: Photosynthesis and nutrient uptake by autotrophy converts energy, carbon dioxide, water and nutrients into a wide variety of carbohydrate structures, which are then used by secondary producers to create an even larger variety of living biomass. This biomass provides many resources for human use, ranging from food and raw materials (fiber, timber, etc.) to energy resources and genetic material.(4) Information functions: Because most of human evolution took place within the context of undomesticated habitat, natural ecosystems provide an essential ‘reference function’ and contribute to the maintenance of human health by providing opportunities for reflection, spiritual enrichment, cognitive development, re-creation and aesthetic experience.(5) Carrier functions: Most human activities (e.g. cultivation, habitation, transportation) require space and a suitable substrate (soil) or medium (water, air) to support the associated infrastructure. The use of carrier functions usually involves permanent conversion of the original ecosystem.

Internal External Factors

Planning &Management

Stakeholder Involvement

Decision Making

(incl. Policy Analysis,

Scenario dev.Inst. and

governance aspects)

Trade-offAnalysis:

-CBA, MCA-Particip.

workshops

EcosystemFunctions

1. Production2. Regulation3. Habitat4. Information5. Carriers

Ecosystem Goods & Services

Ecological ValuesBased on ecological

sustainability

Socio-cultural values

Based on equity and cultural perceptions

Economic Values Based on efficiency

and cost-effectiveness

Structure & Processes

Ecosystem

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Once the functions of an ecosystem are known, the nature and magnitude of value to human society can be analyzed and assessed through the goods and services provided by the functional aspects of the ecosystem.

Climate change components that affect mangrove ecosystems include change in sea level, hydrology (tidal and fresh water flows within mangroves), high water events, storms, precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, ocean circulation patterns, health and functionally linked neighboring ecosystems, as well as human responses to climate change. The changes of those factors threaten mangroves, causing a reduction in area and health. This in turn will increase the threat to human safety due to the loss of protection from coastal hazards such as erosion, flooding, storm waves and surges and tsunami (Danielsen et al, 2005; Kathiresan and Rajendran, 2005, Dahdouh-Guebas et al., 2005, 2006).

In order to adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change, especially for the coastal communities, it is necessary to estimate function and services of mangrove ecosystems. This research study is intended to estimate functions of mangrove ecosystems through understanding factors and their interactions that influence mangrove status and investigate the complex linkages between the functions inside the mangrove ecosystem and the services which provide to the people and the drivers that affect the functions and services.

Description of the research project

1.6. Rationale and background [max. 500 words]

Pay at least attention to the following:i. Rationale for and relevance of the project ii. Development relevanceiii. Scientific quality and innovation

Mangroves perform valued regional and site-specific functions (Lewis, 1992; Ewel et al., 1998; Walters et al. 2008). As a special wetland ecosystem, mangroves present very important functions and provide services to human society and their surrounding environments. Function is the capacity of natural process and components to provide goods and services that satisfy human needs, directly or indirectly (De Groot et al. 2002). Accurate predictions of changes to coastal ecosystem functions, including responses to projected sea-level rise and other climate change components, enable site planning with sufficient lead time to minimize and offset anticipated losses (Titus, 1991; Mullane and Suzuli, 1997; Hansen and Biringer, 2003; Gilman et al., 2008).

The well-being of an ecosystem is determined by physio-chemical and biological parameters. Identification of key factors that serve as indicators of ecosystem function can enable one to predict the effects of ecological stress. Through investigation the factors, complex linkages between them, or ecological processes, and functions inside the ecosystem we will try to understand the effect of projected climate change scenarios on mangrove ecosystem, including assessing mangrove resistance and resilience to relative sea level rise. Resistance is used to refer to a mangrove’s ability to keep pace with rising sea-level without alteration to its functions, processes and structure (Odum, 1989; Bennett et al., 2005).

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Resilience refers to the capacity of a mangrove to naturally mitigate landward in response to rising sea-level, such that the mangrove ecosystem absorbs and reorganizes from the effects of the stress to maintain its functions, processes and structure (Carpenter et al., 2001; Nystrom and Folke, 2001). Then adaptation options to avoid and minimize adverse out comes from predicted mangrove responses to climate change scenarios will be identified.

Mangrove ecosystems are considered vulnerable to climate change as coastal development limits the ecosystem service and adaptations important to their survival. Although they appear rather simple in terms of species diversity, their ecology is complex due to interaction geophysical forces of tides, surface runoff, river and groundwater discharge, wave, sediment, nutrients and saltwater. This research will develop a comprehensive framework for science-based management practices.

1.7. Problem statement [max. 250 words] & research questionsIn the near futures, global climate change has been predicted. Coastal areas will be

very firsts areas facing with the impacts of climate change (sea-level rise, extreme events etc.). Like other coastal lines, urgent action is necessary to prevent damage caused by climate change in the Mekong Delta. Understanding the functions and services of mangrove ecosystem of the Mekong Delta is one of the critical needs.

The major research questions of this study are as follows:

1. What are the factors, indicators, and the interactions between the indicators (processes) that influence the mangrove ecosystem structures?

2. How do mangrove ecosystem processes affect its functions and how do functions link to services?

3. What are the probable status of mangrove ecosystems at Mekong Delta and their probable functions and services under certain projected climate change scenarios? (How are functions affected by climate change – using the indicators)

1.8. Overall & specific objectives [max. 250 words]( A logical framework of the objectives, research questions and activities of the project is requested in Annex A )

Overall objective

The overall objective of this research is to evaluate the functions of mangrove ecosystems and their roles in reducing the impacts of climate change in coastal communities and to develop a comprehensive framework for sustainable management practices and how they are affected by climate change.

Specific objectives : The specific objectives of this study are as follows:

To develop key factors, indicators, and the ecological processes that affect the well-being of mangrove ecosystem at Mekong River Delta (Research question 1 will be answered by achieving this objective).

To estimate the functions and services of mangrove ecosystem at coastal of Mekong River Delta (Research question 2 will be answered by fulfilling this objective).

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To understand the dynamic of mangrove ecosystem and to provide ecological forecasting capabilities under different projected climate change scenarios (This objective will address research question 3).

1.9. Research methodology and implementationiv. Research approach & activities [max. 500 words]:

Firstly, we will develop a conceptual model that describes a hypothetical representation of critical state variables and processes. The factors that influence status of mangrove forest will be divided into three groups. The first groups will be regulators (non-resources) factors such as climatic and landform characteristics. Light, nutrients, etc. will be grouped in the resource factor group, the second group. The third group will include hydrological factors.

The relationships between the factors in the three groups will be determined both literature values and empirical studies, and mathematical formulation of the processes will be constructed for each functional group. For example, a logistic growth equation that predicts, under optimal conditions, an expected increment in biomass over time of a group within an area. Each functional group has an optimal productivity that occurs within a specific range for each of the environmental factors (light, temperature, salinity, nutrients, hydrology regimes etc.), and the simulated production is depreciated from the optimal value when any of the environmental factors varies outside this optimal range. This depreciation is accomplished by multiplying the maximum productivity by a series of scalars that represent each factor.

Structure of mangrove ecosystem will represent the characteristic of species such as composition, density, zonation, diversity etc., productivity and regeneration and succession trajectory. In this part we will try to investigate the consequence of ecological characteristic to ecosystem functions. The functions will be considered are hydrological, biogeochemical and ecological functions.

The simulation will be built up step-by-step, beginning with optimal growth for a single functional group, then the effects of less than optimal conditions for growth. The aim is to predict and estimate the probable status, processes and functions of mangrove ecosystem under the effects of climate change. We then will identify adaptation options to avoid and minimize adverse outcomes from predicted mangroves responses to projected climate change scenarios.

The relationships between the factors in the three groups will be determined both literature values and empirical studies.

In the field, current status of mangrove forest at coastal of Mekong River Mouth will be studied. The data includes fauna and flora compositions, structure, distribution, production, below and above ground biomass and its relations, etc.

The study will be implemented through the following steps (Figure 3).

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Figure 3. Different research activities

STEP 2: Functional analysisLiterature reviewField surveyConceptual framework

Specific objective 2 achieved (Processes-functions analysis)

STEP 3: Model constructionLiterature reviewField surveyVariable identification and definitionModel construction

Specific objective 2 and 3 achieved (Model construction)

STEP 4: Model compilationPressure-state-impact-response check and updateModel compilationSensitively analysis

Specific objective 2 and 3 achieved (Linkages between factors <=>

status<=>functions<=>services analysis)

STEP 5: Scenarios development and analysis

Scenario developmentScenario analysisReporting

Specific objective 3 achieved (Scenarios development => future

prediction)

STEP 1: Factor /indicators and interaction processes identification

Literature reviewField survey

Specific objective 1 achieved (Factors and processes identification)

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1.9. Anticipated results & deliverables [max. 250 words]Reports: Two papers and 2 reports will be written with the following titles, respectively: Effect of influence indicators on the status of mangrove forest along the coastal area of

the Mekong Delta (January, 2011) Functionality of restored mangroves in the Mekong Delta (July, 2011) Progress report (April, 2011) Final report (September, 2011)

(Provide an estimate of the intended output)2010 2011

1 Research reports 22 Articles for peer reviewed journals 23 Contribution to MSc theses, if applicable 1-24 Contribution to PhD theses, if applicable5 Other Academic Publications, specify type:6 Other Professional publications / products:

1.10. Role of linked MSc and PhD studies [max. 300 words]There is a MSc. student in IHE, she wants to do her research on estimate the services of mangrove ecosystems. She may choose study site in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, or in her country, Kenya. If she chooses Vietnam, it is so great, we can do together to full fill the functions and services picture of mangroves in the Mekong Delta. Otherwise, the founded factors which affect structure and processes of mangroves of my research will be used for her research to evaluate the services of mangrove ecosystem in her study areas. Then we can see the different results of the two areas.(If it is applicable)

1.11. Dissemination & outreach [max. 250 words] Through the research, model for assessing functions/services of mangrove ecosystems

will be built and tested. The constructed model can be used to assess the values of current mangroves for management system of the local authorities and communities participation in order to optimum use of mangroves resources.

Global sea-level rise and other climate change components are the more certain outcomes of global warming that are the substantial cause of recent and predicted future reductions in the area and health of mangroves and other tidal wetlands. The model can be used to predict the ability of mangroves in term of responses to the projected climate change scenarios.

1.12. Integration with other PROACC studies [max. 250 words] If look from head water to down stream, mangroves are located at the end, the

hydrological characteristics of the Mekong River such as water quality, quantity, drought and flood, nutrients, sediment, etc. will has influences on mangrove ecosystem. The research will strongly collaborate with PRoACC studies which dealing with those issues.

This research will also contribute to the study on vulnerabilities management, water pollutant treatment in order to avoid overemphasized plan for dealing with uncertainty.

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1.13. Link with other on-going UNESCO-IHE and/or partner initiatives and/or activities [250 words] Due to the limitation of time (18 months) all the available data and references of the

other studies will be optimized.

1.14. Schedule of activities

Activities Year 1 Year 2Activity 1: Literature review                Activity 2: Field visit                Activity 3: Conceptual framework                Activity 4: Variable identification and definition

               

Activity 5: Model construction                Activity 6: Model complication                Activity 7: Scenario development and analysis                Activity 8: Reporting                

2. Project management2.1. Management arrangements [max. 200 words]Describe regular communication and project progress reporting arrangementsSupervisor and post-doc: Research proposal will be completed at the end of May, 2010. After back to home country, post-doc and the supervisor will keep discuss often by

email at least one or twice a month. Supervisor and post-doc visit study site, 2010/2011 After the model is constructed, post-doc will meet supervisor for completing the model

(IHE, April, 2011) Climate change scenarios development and analysis with supervisor consultancy.

2.2. Monitoring & evaluation [max. 200 words]The process of monitoring and evaluation of the study will base on Middle term report (April, 2011) Two papers Final report (September, 2011)

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2.3. BudgetThe total estimated budget of the research is 12,455.00 EUR (EURO Twelve thousand four hundred fifty five) as the following detail.

No. Items Quantity Unit (EUR)

Total (EUR)

1 Collecting data and information     8,800 1.1. Travel cost 4 Air ticket 200 800 1.2. Car rental (for field trip) 6,000 km 0.4 2,400 1.3. Accommodation 60 night 25 1,500 1.4. Assistants 60 day 25 1,500 1.5. Measuring equipment (Measure, scale, pH…) 500 1.6. Payment for data and information 2,100

Hydrological information 1 set 300 300 Climatic and topographic data 1 set 300 300 Land covered map 1 set 300 300 Saline map 1 set 300 300 Sedimentation 1 set 300 300 Nutrient flux 1 set 300 300

  Fauna diversity 1 set 300 300 2 Sampling and analysis       1,000 3 Conference attending       700 4 Laptop 1 laptop 1000 1,000 5 Software 1 software 955 955   Total       12,455

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Annex A: Logical Framework

Project Description Main activities, results & deliverables

Performance Indicators

Overall objective:

To evaluate the functions/services of mangrove ecosystems and its roles in significantly reducing the impacts of climate change in coastal communities for developing a comprehensive framework for sustainable management practices and how they are affected by climate change.

8 listed activitiesResults: 2 papers and 2 reports

Papers and reports

Specific objective 1:

To identify key factors, indicators, and the ecological processes that affect the well-being of mangrove ecosystem at Mekong River Delta

Activity 1: Literature reviewActivity 2: Field visit Activity 3: Conceptual frameworkActivity 4: Variable identification and definitionActivity 8: Reporting

Progress report

Specific objective 2:

To estimate the functions/services of mangrove ecosystem at coastal of Mekong River Delta

Activity 5: Model constructionActivity 6: Model complicationActivity 8: Reporting

Result: first paper (January, 2011)

First paper

Specific objective 3:

To understand the dynamic of mangrove ecosystem and to provide ecological forecasting capabilities under different projected climate change scenarios

Activity 7: Scenario development and analysisActivity 8: Reporting

Result: Second paper (July, 2011)

Second paper,Final report

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