PRoACC Proposal - Mangrove Ecosystem Under Climate Change Conditions

7/28/2019 PRoACC Proposal - Mangrove Ecosystem Under Climate Change Conditions

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PRoACC

Research proposal

Functions and services of mangrove ecosystemunder climate change conditions:

a case study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Mentor:

Dr. Erik de Ruyter van SteveninckUNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, Netherlands

Researcher:

Ms. Nguyen Thi Kim Cuc

Water Resources University, Hanoi, Vietnam


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May 2010

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Table of contents

Table of contents.................................................................................................................................3

1. Introduction....................................................................................................................................41.1. Project title..............................................................................................................................................41.2. Acronym [max. 25 characters]........................................................................................................... ....4

1.3. Location of the research [region and/or country]...................................................................................41.4. Participating partners (other than UNESCO-IHE): .............................................................................. .4

1.5. Project Idea and Concept........................................................................................................................4

Description of the research project ................................................................................................................7

1.6. Rationale and background [max. 500 words].........................................................................................71.7. Problem statement [max. 250 words] & research questions..................................................................8

1.8. Overall & specific objectives [max. 250 words]....................................................................................81.9. Research methodology and implementation..........................................................................................9

1.9. Anticipated results & deliverables [max. 250 words]..........................................................................111.10. Role of linked MSc and PhD studies [max. 300 words]....................................................................11

1.11. Dissemination & outreach [max. 250 words].....................................................................................11

1.12. Integration with other PROACC studies [max. 250 words]...............................................................111.13. Link with other on-going UNESCO-IHE and/or partner initiatives and/or activities [250 words].. .121.14. Schedule of activities..........................................................................................................................12

2. Project management.....................................................................................................................122.1. Management arrangements [max. 200 words].....................................................................................12

2.2. Monitoring & evaluation [max. 200 words].........................................................................................122.3. Budget..................................................................................................................................................13

Annex A: Logical Framework ........................................................................................................14

References.........................................................................................................................................15


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1. Introduction

1.1. Project title

Functions and services of mangrove ecosystem under climate change conditions: acase study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

1.2. Acronym [max. 25 characters]

1.3. Location of the research [region and/or country]

The study will take place in coastal area of Ben Tre Province in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Map of study area

1.4. Participating partners (other than UNESCO-IHE):

Partner 1: Water Resources University

Acronym: WRU

Address: 175 Tay Son, Dong Da, Hanoi, Vietnam

Type of organization: University

Partner 2: Mangrove Ecosystem Research Division,

Center for Natural Resources and Environmental Studies,

Vietnam National University, Viet Nam

Acronym: MERD/CRES/VNU

Address: 58 Ngo Thinh Hao 1, Ton Duc Thang, Hanoi, Vietnam

Type of organization: Research Centre

1.5. Project Idea and Concept

Study area

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(Describe in a concise paragraph the main research question, the main hypothesis and the

conceptual approach of the proposed project) [max. 500 words]

Mangroves are an ecosystem dominated by a diverse yet small group of tropical tree

species that have by parallel evolution developed special physiological and morphological

adaptations to grow in intertidal conditions (Lugo and Snedaker, 1974; Chapman, 1976). The

forests are known to be highly productive ecosystems with the capacity to efficiently trap

suspended material from the water column. This is because their dense vegetation tends to

promote sedimentation (Furukawa and Wolanski, 1996; Furukawa et al., 1997; Kristensen et

al., 2008). As a consequence mangrove development over geological time can be

reconstructed from the fragmented sedimentary records of their own deposits. Being a wet

environment, anaerobic conditions of mangrove sediment can allow the long-term

preservation of these records. Because of the regular tidal flooding and draining in many

mangrove forests, the material exchange with adjacent water can be very efficient.

Therefore, mangrove forests are recognized as an important wetland for being essential

habitat for fauna communities such as fishes, crabs, shrimps, etc. and organic carbon storage.

For centuries, mangroves have contributed significantly to the socio-economic lives of

coastal dwellers. Mangroves have been traditionally exploited as building materials,

charcoal, firewood, tannin, food, bird feathers, honey, herbal medicines, and many other

forest products (Hong & San, 1993).

Most ecosystems provide a multitude of functions and many aspects need to be

considered (Figure 2). In this study, the concept of ecosystem functions and services are the

central element. The first step in the analysis involves the identification of the ecologicalinternal and external factors that affect the ecosystem structure and processes. The next step

is working on the translation of ecological complexity (structures and processes) into a more

limited number of ecosystem functions (Figure 2). These functions, in turn, provide the

goods and services that are valued by humans. At the first period, the idea of evaluate

mangrove ecosystem will be considered. If it is possible, the goods and services of the

mangroves will be evaluated.

In the ecological literature, the term ecosystem function has been subject to

various, and sometimes contradictory, interpretations. Sometimes, the concept is used to

describe the internal functioning of the ecosystem (e.g. maintenance of energy fluxes,

nutrient (re)cycling, food-web interactions), and sometimes it relates to the benefits derived

by humans from the properties and processes of ecosystems (e.g. food production and waste

treatment). In this research, ecosystem functions are defined as the capacity of natural

processes and components to provide goods and services that satisfy human needs, directly

or indirectly (de Groot, 1992). Mangrove ecosystem functions will be grouped into five

primary categories* (based on de Groot, 1992; de Groot et al., 2002, de Groot, 2006).

*

(1)Regulation functions: This group of functions relates to the capacity of the ecosystems to regulate essentialecological processes and life support systems through hydrological, biogeochemical cycles and other

biospheric processes. Regulation functions maintain a healthy ecosystem at different scale levels and, at the

biosphere level, provide and maintain the conditions for life on Earth. In many ways, these regulation functions

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Figure 2. Role of function-analysis and valuation (after de Groot, 1992; de Groot et al.,

2002, de Groot, 2006).

provide the necessary pre-conditions for all other functions.

(2)Habitat functions: Natural ecosystems provide refuge and reproduction-habitat to wild plants and animals

and thereby contribute to the (in situ) conservation of biological and genetic diversity and evolutionary

processes. As the term implies, habitat functions relate to the spatial conditions needed to maintain biotic (and

genetic) diversity and evolutionary processes. The availability, or condition, of this function is based on thephysical aspects of the ecological niche within the biosphere. These requirements differ for different species

groups, but can be described in terms of the carrying capacity and spatial needs (minimum critical ecosystem

size) of the natural ecosystems which provide them.

(3)Production functions: Photosynthesis and nutrient uptake by autotrophy converts energy, carbon dioxide,

water and nutrients into a wide variety of carbohydrate structures, which are then used by secondary producers

to create an even larger variety of living biomass. This biomass provides many resources for human use,

ranging from food and raw materials (fiber, timber, etc.) to energy resources and genetic material.

(4)Information functions: Because most of human evolution took place within the context of undomesticated

habitat, natural ecosystems provide an essential reference function and contribute to the maintenance of

human health by providing opportunities for reflection, spiritual enrichment, cognitive development, re-

creation and aesthetic experience.

(5) Carrier functions: Most human activities (e.g. cultivation, habitation, transportation) require space and asuitable substrate (soil) or medium (water, air) to support the associated infrastructure. The use of carrier

functions usually involves permanent conversion of the original ecosystem.

Internal

External

FactorsPlanning &

Management

Stakeholder

Involvement

Decision

Making(incl. PolicyAnalysis,

Scenario dev.

Inst. andgovernance

aspects)

Trade-off

Analysis:-CBA, MCA

-Particip.workshops

Ecosystem

Functions

1. Production

2. Regulation

3. Habitat

4. Information

5. Carriers

Ecosystem

Goods

&

Services

Ecological Values

Based on ecological

sustainability

Socio-cultural

values

Based on equity and

cultural perceptions

Economic Values

Based on efficiency

and cost-

effectiveness

Structure

&

Processes

Ecosystem

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Once the functions of an ecosystem are known, the nature and magnitude of value to

human society can be analyzed and assessed through the goods and services provided by the

functional aspects of the ecosystem.

Climate change components that affect mangrove ecosystems include change in sea

level, hydrology (tidal and fresh water flows within mangroves), high water events, storms,

precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, ocean circulation patterns, health

and functionally linked neighboring ecosystems, as well as human responses to climate

change. The changes of those factors threaten mangroves, causing a reduction in area and

health. This in turn will increase the threat to human safety due to the loss of protection from

coastal hazards such as erosion, flooding, storm waves and surges and tsunami (Danielsen et

al, 2005; Kathiresan and Rajendran, 2005, Dahdouh-Guebas et al., 2005, 2006).

In order to adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change, especially for the coastal

communities, it is necessary to estimate function and services of mangrove ecosystems. This

research study is intended to estimate functions of mangrove ecosystems throughunderstanding factors and their interactions that influence mangrove status and investigate

the complex linkages between the functions inside the mangrove ecosystem and the services

which provide to the people and the drivers that affect the functions and services.

Description of the research project

1.6. Rationale and background [max. 500 words]

Pay at least attention to the following:i. Rationale for and relevance of the projectii. Development relevanceiii. Scientific quality and innovation

Mangroves perform valued regional and site-specific functions (Lewis, 1992; Ewel et

al., 1998; Walters et al. 2008). As a special wetland ecosystem, mangroves present very

important functions and provide services to human society and their surrounding

environments. Function is the capacity of natural process and components to provide goods

and services that satisfy human needs, directly or indirectly (De Groot et al. 2002). Accurate

predictions of changes to coastal ecosystem functions, including responses to projected sea-

level rise and other climate change components, enable site planning with sufficient leadtime to minimize and offset anticipated losses (Titus, 1991; Mullane and Suzuli, 1997;

Hansen and Biringer, 2003; Gilman et al., 2008).

The well-being of an ecosystem is determined by physio-chemical and biological

parameters. Identification of key factors that serve as indicators of ecosystem function can

enable one to predict the effects of ecological stress. Through investigation the factors,

complex linkages between them, or ecological processes, and functions inside the ecosystem

we will try to understand the effect of projected climate change scenarios on mangrove

ecosystem, including assessing mangrove resistance and resilience to relative sea level rise.

Resistance is used to refer to a mangroves ability to keep pace with rising sea-level without

alteration to its functions, processes and structure (Odum, 1989; Bennett et al., 2005).

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Resilience refers to the capacity of a mangrove to naturally mitigate landward in response to

rising sea-level, such that the mangrove ecosystem absorbs and reorganizes from the effects

of the stress to maintain its functions, processes and structure (Carpenter et al., 2001;

Nystrom and Folke, 2001). Then adaptation options to avoid and minimize adverse out

comes from predicted mangrove responses to climate change scenarios will be identified.

Mangrove ecosystems are considered vulnerable to climate change as coastal

development limits the ecosystem service and adaptations important to their survival.

Although they appear rather simple in terms of species diversity, their ecology is complex

due to interaction geophysical forces of tides, surface runoff, river and groundwater

discharge, wave, sediment, nutrients and saltwater. This research will develop a

comprehensive framework for science-based management practices.

1.7. Problem statement [max. 250 words] & research questions

In the near futures, global climate change has been predicted. Coastal areas will be

very firsts areas facing with the impacts of climate change (sea-level rise, extreme eventsetc.). Like other coastal lines, urgent action is necessary to prevent damage caused by

climate change in the Mekong Delta. Understanding the functions and services of mangrove

ecosystem of the Mekong Delta is one of the critical needs.

The major research questions of this study are as follows:

1. What are the factors, indicators, and the interactions between the indicators

(processes) that influence the mangrove ecosystem structures?

2. How do mangrove ecosystem processes affect its functions and how do functions link

to services?

3. What are the probable status of mangrove ecosystems at Mekong Delta and their

probable functions and services under certain projected climate change scenarios?

(How are functions affected by climate change using the indicators)

1.8. Overall & specific objectives [max. 250 words]

(A logical framework of the objectives, research questions and activities of the project isrequested in Annex A)

Overall objective

The overall objective of this research is to evaluate the functions of mangrove ecosystemsand their roles in reducing the impacts of climate change in coastal communities and to

develop a comprehensive framework for sustainable management practices and how they are

affected by climate change.

Specific objectives: The specific objectives of this study are as follows:

To develop key factors, indicators, and the ecological processes

that affect the well-being of mangrove ecosystem at Mekong River Delta (Research

question 1 will be answered by achieving this objective).

To estimate the functions and services of mangrove ecosystem at

coastal of Mekong River Delta (Research question 2 will be answered by fulfilling

this objective).

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To understand the dynamic of mangrove ecosystem and to provide

ecological forecasting capabilities under different projected climate change scenarios

(This objective will address research question 3).

1.9. Research methodology and implementation

iv. Research approach & activities [max. 500 words]:

Firstly, we will develop a conceptual model that describes a hypothetical representation of

critical state variables and processes. The factors that influence status of mangrove forest

will be divided into three groups. The first groups will be regulators (non-resources) factors

such as climatic and landform characteristics. Light, nutrients, etc. will be grouped in the

resource factor group, the second group. The third group will include hydrological factors.

The relationships between the factors in the three groups will be determined both

literature values and empirical studies, and mathematical formulation of the processes

will be constructed for each functional group. For example, a logistic growth equation that

predicts, under optimal conditions, an expected increment in biomass over time of a group

within an area. Each functional group has an optimal productivity that occurs within a

specific range for each of the environmental factors (light, temperature, salinity, nutrients,

hydrology regimes etc.), and the simulated production is depreciated from the optimal value

when any of the environmental factors varies outside this optimal range. This depreciation is

accomplished by multiplying the maximum productivity by a series of scalars that represent

each factor.

Structure of mangrove ecosystem will represent the characteristic of species such as

composition, density, zonation, diversity etc., productivity and regeneration and successiontrajectory. In this part we will try to investigate the consequence of ecological characteristic

to ecosystem functions. The functions will be considered are hydrological, biogeochemical

and ecological functions.

The simulation will be built up step-by-step, beginning with optimal growth for a single

functional group, then the effects of less than optimal conditions for growth. The aim is to

predict and estimate the probable status, processes and functions of mangrove ecosystem

under the effects of climate change. We then will identify adaptation options to avoid and

minimize adverse outcomes from predicted mangroves responses to projected climate

change scenarios.

The relationships between the factors in the three groups will be determined both literature

values and empirical studies.

In the field, current status of mangrove forest at coastal of Mekong River Mouth will be

studied. The data includes fauna and flora compositions, structure, distribution, production,

below and above ground biomass and its relations, etc.

The study will be implemented through the following steps (Figure 3).

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Figure 3. Different research activities

STEP 2: Functional analysis

Literature review

Field survey

Conceptual framework

Specific objective 2 achieved

(Processes-functions analysis)

STEP 3: Model constructionLiterature review

Field survey

Variable identification and

definition

Model construction

Specific objective 2 and 3 achieved

(Model construction)

STEP 4: Model compilation

Pressure-state-impact-responsecheck and update

Model compilation

Sensitively analysis

Specific objective 2 and 3 achieved

(Linkages between factors

statusfunctionsservices analysis)

STEP 5: Scenarios development

and analysis

Scenario development

Scenario analysis

Reporting


(Scenarios development => future

prediction)

STEP 1: Factor /indicators and

interaction processes

identification

Literature review

Field survey


(Factors and processes identification)

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1.9. Anticipated results & deliverables [max. 250 words]

Reports: Two papers and 2 reports will be written with the following titles, respectively:

Effect of influence indicators on the status of mangrove forest along the coastal area of

the Mekong Delta (January, 2011)

Functionality of restored mangroves in the Mekong Delta (July, 2011)

Progress report (April, 2011)

Final report (September, 2011)

(Provide an estimate of the intended output)

2010 2011

1 Research reports 2

2 Articles for peer reviewed journals 2

3 Contribution to MSc theses, if applicable 1-2

4 Contribution to PhD theses, if applicable

5 Other Academic Publications, specify type:

6 Other Professional publications / products:

1.10. Role of linked MSc and PhD studies [max. 300 words]

There is a MSc. student in IHE, she wants to do her research on estimate the services of

mangrove ecosystems. She may choose study site in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, or in her

country, Kenya. If she chooses Vietnam, it is so great, we can do together to full fill the

functions and services picture of mangroves in the Mekong Delta. Otherwise, the founded

factors which affect structure and processes of mangroves of my research will be used for

her research to evaluate the services of mangrove ecosystem in her study areas. Then we can

see the different results of the two areas.

(If it is applicable)

1.11. Dissemination & outreach [max. 250 words]

Through the research, model for assessing functions/services of mangrove ecosystems

will be built and tested. The constructed model can be used to assess the values of

current mangroves for management system of the local authorities and communities

participation in order to optimum use of mangroves resources.

Global sea-level rise and other climate change components are the more certain

outcomes of global warming that are the substantial cause of recent and predicted future

reductions in the area and health of mangroves and other tidal wetlands. The model can

be used to predict the ability of mangroves in term of responses to the projected climate

change scenarios.

1.12. Integration with other PROACC studies [max. 250 words]

If look from head water to down stream, mangroves are located at the end, the

hydrological characteristics of the Mekong River such as water quality, quantity,

drought and flood, nutrients, sediment, etc. will has influences on mangrove ecosystem.

The research will strongly collaborate with PRoACC studies which dealing with those

issues.

This research will also contribute to the study on vulnerabilities management, water

pollutant treatment in order to avoid overemphasized plan for dealing with uncertainty.

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1.13. Link with other on-going UNESCO-IHE and/or partner initiatives and/oractivities [250 words]

Due to the limitation of time (18 months) all the available data and references of the

other studies will be optimized.

1.14. Schedule of activities

Activities Year 1 Year 2

Activity 1: Literature review

Activity 2: Field visit

Activity 3: Conceptual framework

Activity 4: Variable identification and

definition

Activity 5: Model construction

Activity 6: Model complication

Activity 7: Scenario development and

analysisActivity 8: Reporting

2. Project management

2.1. Management arrangements [max. 200 words]

Describe regular communication and project progress reporting arrangements

Supervisor and post-doc:

Research proposal will be completed at the end of May, 2010.

After back to home country, post-doc and the supervisor will keep discuss often byemail at least one or twice a month.

Supervisor and post-doc visit study site, 2010/2011

After the model is constructed, post-doc will meet supervisor for completing the model

(IHE, April, 2011)

Climate change scenarios development and analysis with supervisor consultancy.

2.2. Monitoring & evaluation [max. 200 words]

The process of monitoring and evaluation of the study will base on

Middle term report (April, 2011)

Two papers Final report (September, 2011)

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2.3. Budget

The total estimated budget of the research is 12,455.00 EUR(EURO Twelve thousand four

hundred fifty five) as the following detail.

No. Items Quantity

Unit

(EUR)

Total

(EUR)1 Collecting data and information 8,800

1.1. Travel cost 4 Air ticket 200 800

1.2. Car rental (for field trip) 6,000 km 0.4 2,400

1.3. Accommodation 60 night 25 1,500

1.4. Assistants 60 day 25 1,500

1.5. Measuring equipment (Measure, scale, pH) 500

1.6. Payment for data and information 2,100Hydrological information 1 set 300 300

Climatic and topographic data 1 set 300 300

Land covered map 1 set 300 300Saline map 1 set 300 300

Sedimentation 1 set 300 300

Nutrient flux 1 set 300 300

Fauna diversity 1 set 300 300

2 Sampling and analysis 1,000

3 Conference attending 700

4 Laptop 1 laptop 1000 1,000

5 Software 1 software 955 955

Total 12,455

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Annex A: Logical Framework

Project DescriptionMain activities, results &

deliverables

PerformanceIndicators

Overall objective:

To evaluate the functions/services

of mangrove ecosystems and its

roles in significantly reducing the

impacts of climate change in coastal

communities for developing a

comprehensive framework for

sustainable management practices

and how they are affected by

climate change.

8 listed activitiesResults: 2 papers and 2 reports Papers andreports

Specific objective 1:

To identify key factors, indicators,

and the ecological processes that

affect the well-being of mangrove

ecosystem at Mekong River Delta

Activity 1: Literature review

Activity 2: Field visit

Activity 3: Conceptual framework

Activity 4: Variable identification

and definition

Activity 8: Reporting

Progress report


To estimate the functions/services

of mangrove ecosystem at coastal

of Mekong River Delta

Activity 5: Model construction

Activity 6: Model complication


Result: first paper (January, 2011)

First paper


To understand the dynamic of

mangrove ecosystem and to provide

ecological forecasting capabilities

under different projected climate

change scenarios

Activity 7: Scenario development

and analysis


Result: Second paper (July, 2011)

Second paper,

Final report

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Dahdouh-Guebas, F, Jayatissa , L, P, Di Nitto , D, Bosire , J, O, Loseen , D and Koedam , N,

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Documents

PRoACC Proposal - Mangrove Ecosystem Under Climate Change Conditions