8
MANPOWER INC. EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK SURVEY SECOND QUARTER 2002

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2002

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey (MEOS) is released quarterly to measure employers' intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter.It is the only forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in size, scope, longevity and area of focus. The survey has been administered for more than 46 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world.

Citation preview

Page 1: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2002

MANPOWER INC.

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK SURVEY

SECOND QUARTER 2 0 0 2

Page 2: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2002

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK IMPROVESS L I G H T LY FOR SECOND QUART E R

A slight improvement in hiringactivity is expected heading intothe spring months. While a welcome sign, the change isnot sufficient enough to indicatea recovery in the employmentsector is imminent. On a seasonally adjusted basis,Durable and Non-DurableGoods Manufacturing show thebest gains from three monthsago, with projected re s u l t smodestly ahead of thed e p ressed levels evident in the past several quarters.A c ross all industries, six of 10surveyed anticipate slighti m p rovement or stable activity in contrast to three months ago.Sectors where weakness persists include Tr a n s p o r t a t i o n& Public Utilities, Education andPublic Administration. With theexception of the Northeast,which will maintain a steady hiring pace, the Midwest, Southand West all report a pick-up inemployment potential for thecoming months.

PUBLIC ADMINISTRAT I O NS E RV I C E S

FINANCE, INSURANCE & REAL ESTAT E E D U C ATION - PUBLIC & PRIVAT E

WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADEST R A N S P O RTATION & PUBLIC UTILITIES

M A N U FACTURING - NON-DURABLE GOODSM A N U FACTURING - DURABLE GOODS

M I N I N G C O N S T R U C T I O N

THE OUTLOOK BY INDUSTRY 1987-2002

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDNET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

Page 3: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2002

THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK 1987-2002

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDNET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

UNITED STAT E S

BY INDUSTRY CAT E G O RY

% % no % % don’t net % s e a s o n a l l yI N D U S T RY CAT E G O R I E S i n c re a s e c h a n g e d e c re a s e k n o w + / - a d j u s t e d

M I N I N G 1 6 7 1 1 1 2 5 5

C O N S T R U C T I O N 3 0 5 6 9 5 2 1 1 1

MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 2 0 6 0 1 4 6 6 2

MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 1 9 6 6 9 6 1 0 8

TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 1 6 6 9 9 6 7 5

WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 2 3 6 1 1 0 6 1 3 1 2

FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTAT E 1 8 6 9 8 5 1 0 8

E D U C ATION - PUBLIC & PRIVAT E 1 2 7 5 9 4 3 6

S E RV I C E S 2 2 6 3 8 7 1 4 1 0

PUBLIC ADMINISTRAT I O N 1 9 6 9 8 4 1 1 7

ALL INDUSTRIES 2 1 6 3 1 0 6 1 1 9

net % +/-

Page 4: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2002

CONNECTICUTMAINEMASSACHUSETTSNEW HAMPSHIRENEW JERSEYNEW YORKPENNSYLVANIARHODE ISLANDVERMONT

THE NORTHEAST OUTLOOK 1987-2002

While spring holds a degree of warmthfor other regions, the Northeast is theleast anxious to emerge from the dol-drums of economy and weather. Mostlyseasonal shifts will impact this region as it takes a last place finish for theupcoming quarter. A few potentiallyencouraging spots are worth noting. The manufacturing sector, particularly in the Non-Durable Goods arena, isshowing another quarter of impro v e m e n tf rom late last year, while the key Finance,Insurance & Real Estate industry indicatesno sign of further deterioration. However,g o v e rnment units continue to slide, indicating little hope for the next thre emonths and the Education field pro j e c t sthe weakest second quarter hiring plansin six years. Among the industry leadersfor the spring months are Construction,as anticipated, as well as Services, thelatter forecasting a weaker than expectedseasonal outlook.

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDNET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

N O RT H E A S TBY INDUSTRY CAT E G O RY

% % no % % don’t net % s e a s o n a l l yI N D U S T RY CAT E G O R I E S i n c re a s e c h a n g e d e c re a s e k n o w + / - a d j u s t e d

M I N I N G 2 5 5 0 2 5 0 0 1

C O N S T R U C T I O N 2 5 6 0 1 0 5 1 5 9

MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 1 5 5 9 1 6 1 0 - 1 - 4

MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 1 9 6 3 1 0 8 9 6

TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 1 5 7 0 9 6 6 4

WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 2 2 6 0 1 0 8 1 2 1 2

FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTAT E 1 9 6 3 1 1 7 8 4

E D U C ATION - PUBLIC & PRIVAT E 1 0 7 6 8 6 2 4

S E RV I C E S 2 0 6 5 6 9 1 4 9

PUBLIC ADMINISTRAT I O N 1 6 6 7 1 1 6 5 3

ALL INDUSTRIES 1 9 6 3 1 0 8 9 6

net % +/-

Page 5: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2002

ILLINOISINDIANAIOWAKANSASMICHIGANMINNESOTAMISSOURINEBRASKANORTH DAKOTAOHIOSOUTH DAKOTAWISCONSIN

THE MIDWEST OUTLOOK 1987-2002

As one of the regional leaders, theMidwest seeks to regain solid footingafter having withstood its most pes-simistic outlook in twenty years last q u a r t e r. Particularly heartening is theNon-Durable Goods Manufacturing sector which matches the We s t e rn region in hiring strength. Construction in its springtime leadership role is not asurprise, but clearly lacks the optimism of the typical outlook for this time of year.Also of positive note are Wholesale &Retail Trades and Services. Struggling to recover from a hiring dearth that haspersisted for the past year, Education still shows no signs of a turn a round. The Finance, Insurance & Real Estatei n d u s t r y, however, appears to berebounding in the short term anda p p roaching levels normally seen at this time of year.

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDNET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

M I D W E S TBY INDUSTRY CAT E G O RY

% % no % % don’t net % s e a s o n a l l yI N D U S T RY CAT E G O R I E S i n c re a s e c h a n g e d e c re a s e k n o w + / - a d j u s t e d

M I N I N G 1 4 8 6 0 0 1 4 7

C O N S T R U C T I O N 3 3 5 7 7 3 2 6 4

MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 2 1 6 4 1 2 3 9 4

MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 1 9 6 9 7 5 1 2 1 1

TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 1 7 7 0 8 5 9 5

WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 2 4 6 2 1 0 4 1 4 1 1

FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTAT E 1 8 7 2 7 3 1 1 9

E D U C ATION - PUBLIC & PRIVAT E 1 1 7 4 1 2 3 - 1 3

S E RV I C E S 2 3 6 6 8 3 1 5 1 1

PUBLIC ADMINISTRAT I O N 2 0 6 8 8 4 1 2 3

ALL INDUSTRIES 2 2 6 5 9 4 1 3 9

net % +/-

Page 6: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2002

MARYLANDMISSISSIPPINORTH CAROLINAOKLAHOMASOUTH CAROLINATENNESSEETEXASVIRGINIAWEST VIRGINIA

THE SOUTHERN OUTLOOK 1987-2002

Although the Southern region has lessc o n c e rn about weather- related seasonalshifts, it has shared equally with otherparts of the country in the impact of therecession on employment levels. Thenegative outlooks seen in other re g i o n shave never quite reached the South, but last quarter’s zero net gain in hirings t rength was only a notch away.T h e re f o re, the findings projected for the upcoming quarter, while below thenational average and normal seasonalp a t t e rns, are a hopeful sign for the re g i o n .Services, one of the are a ’s most positivesectors, exhibits a stronger resilience than might be expected, while Educationrepeats the weak prospects seen thre emonths ago. Some signs of life are evident in Durable and Non-DurableGoods Manufacturing as well as theTransportation & Public Utilities industry.

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDNET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

S O U T H

ALABAMAARKANSASDELAWAREDISTRICT

OF COLUMBIAFLORIDAGEORGIAKENTUCKYLOUISIANA

BY INDUSTRY CAT E G O RY

% % no % % don’t net % s e a s o n a l l yI N D U S T RY CAT E G O R I E S i n c re a s e c h a n g e d e c re a s e k n o w + / - a d j u s t e d

M I N I N G 1 1 7 4 1 3 2 - 2 - 3

C O N S T R U C T I O N 3 2 5 6 8 4 2 4 1 7

MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 2 2 5 8 1 4 6 8 4

MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 1 7 6 8 1 0 5 7 5

TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 1 7 7 0 9 4 8 6

WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 2 1 6 4 1 1 4 1 0 9

FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTAT E 1 6 7 4 7 3 9 8

E D U C ATION - PUBLIC & PRIVAT E 1 2 7 9 5 4 7 1 0

S E RV I C E S 2 2 6 5 8 5 1 4 1 0

PUBLIC ADMINISTRAT I O N 1 9 7 3 6 2 1 3 1 0

ALL INDUSTRIES 2 0 6 5 1 0 5 1 0 8

net % +/-

Page 7: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2002

ALASKAARIZONACALIFORNIACOLORADOHAWAIIIDAHOMONTANANEVADANEW MEXICOOREGONUTAHWASHINGTONWYOMING

THE WESTERN OUTLOOK 1987-2002

The West, second runner-up amongregions overall, is clearly the leader ofServices jobs in the upcoming quarter.Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing p rojects a healthy jump in hiring activityafter two disappointing quarters.Wholesale & Retail Trades, with one of the most negative outlooks last quarter even by seasonal standards, has taken a welcome leap ahead thatnow moves it to a position of stre n g t hamong other business sectors. However,the Education field, which appeared to be recovering from a lapse three quartersago, has dropped to its lowest level ofhiring since 1994. A similar situationexists in Transportation & Public Utilities,which has precipitously declined for the second consecutive period, whilePublic Administration failed to post ananticipated increase for the season.

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDNET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

W E S TBY INDUSTRY CAT E G O RY

% % no % % don’t net % s e a s o n a l l yI N D U S T RY CAT E G O R I E S i n c re a s e c h a n g e d e c re a s e k n o w + / - a d j u s t e d

M I N I N G 2 8 6 0 6 6 2 2 2 4

C O N S T R U C T I O N 2 8 5 2 1 1 9 1 7 1 2

MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 1 9 5 2 1 7 1 2 2 - 3

MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 2 0 5 9 8 1 3 1 2 1 1

TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 1 6 5 8 1 3 1 3 3 6

WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 2 5 5 4 1 1 1 0 1 4 1 4

FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTAT E 2 1 5 8 9 1 2 1 2 1 0

E D U C ATION - PUBLIC & PRIVAT E 1 6 6 6 1 4 4 2 1

S E RV I C E S 2 3 5 7 7 1 3 1 6 1 4

PUBLIC ADMINISTRAT I O N 2 3 6 1 9 7 1 4 9

ALL INDUSTRIES 2 2 5 7 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 0

net % +/-

Page 8: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2002

I N T E R N ATIONAL HEADQUART E R S5301 North Ironwood RoadMilwaukee, Wisconsin 53217

w w w. u s . m a n p o w e r. c o m

The quarterly Employment OutlookSurvey has been conducted as a public service of Manpower Inc. for 26 years. The survey was designed and is administered by Manpower’sMarket Research and AnalysisDepartment, utilizing a statistically re p resentative sample of nearly 16,000public and private employers fro mamong ten industrial sectors in 478U.S. markets.

The second quarter 2002 survey is a measurement of employment plans for the permanent workforce. The survey results reflect the intentionsof the sample employers interviewed.Some of these intentions may changeunexpectedly upon the conclusion ofthis survey.

©Copyright. Manpower Inc. 2002. All rights re s e r v e d .