Cairo

Tehran

Giza

Lagos

Dakar

Maputo

Luanda

Riyadh

Kuwait

Jeddah

Aleppo

Ibadan

Douala

Nairobi

Baghdad

Algiers

Abidjan

Kinshasa

Damascus

Mogadishu

Alexandria

Casablanca

Addis Ababa

Johannesburg

Dar es Salaam

Iran

Algeria

Mali

Libya

SudanChad

Niger

Angola

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

Ethiopia

Dem. Rep. Congo

Nigeria

Iraq

Tanzania

Zambia

South Africa

Namibia

Mauritania

Kenya

S. Sudan

Morocco

Yemen

Mozambique

Somalia

Botswana

Congo

Oman

Madagascar

Cameroon

Gabon

Zimbabwe

Ghana

Syria

Guinea

Uganda

Central African Rep.Côte d'Ivoire

Senegal

Burkina Faso

Benin

Eritrea

Somaliland

Tunisia

Malawi

Turkey

Liberia

Jordan

Togo

Afghanistan

W. Sahara

Sierra Leone

Israel

Lesotho

Burundi

United Arab Emirates

Italy

Rwanda

Spain

Djibouti

Kuwait

Eq. Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Qatar

Greece

Swaziland

Gambia

Lebanon

Pakistan

Cyprus

Palestine

N. Cyprus

ReunionMauritius

Comoros

Madeira

Bahrain

TurkmenistanMalta

São Tomé and Principe

Seychelles

Saint HelenaLegendla rg e prote cte d a re a s

likelihood of poisoningValue

Hig h : 0.998477

Low : 2.18697e -009

poisoning likelihood

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000250Kilom e te rs

map T11African vulture hotspot mapping

24 M a y 2017

m a p proje ction: La m b e rt Azim uth Equa l Are a (ce ntra l m e ridia n 20 de g re e s )

CREDITS: Coordination: Ralph Buij (Wageningen University & Research), Corinne Kendall (North Carolina Zoo), Ara Monadjem (University of Swaziland).Data collation: Lutfor Rahman & Lou Luddington (Habitat Info). Analysis & map production: Rob Davies (Habitat Info). Finance: The vulture surveys,data gathering and habitat and threat modeling were funded by the following organisations through Wageningen University & Research (which alsocontributed resources): Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, WWF-Netherlands, UNEP-CMS Raptors MoU, North Carolina Zoo, Fondation LePal Nature,Quagga Foundation, Stichting Vogelpark Avifauna, Stichting Koninklijke Rotterdamse Diergaarde, Detroit Zoological Society, and Stichting Wildlife. ThroughThe Peregrine Fund this project benefited greatly from access to the ESRI Grant Scheme. Data on vultures were contributed or facilitated by the followingindividuals: Yilma D Abebe, Hichem Azafzaf, Laila Bahaa El Din, Neil & Liz Baker, Clive R Barlow, Keith Bildstein, Claire Bracebridge, Andy Branfield, Erik& Asaph Brohaugh, Joost Brouwer, Chris Brown, Evan Buechley, Ralph Buij & Barbara Croes, Andre Botha, Mike Cadman, Alazar Daka Rufo, Rob Davies,Maria Diekmann, Nina Farwig, Oliver Fox, Toby Galligan, Beckie Garbett, Ashwell Glasson, Roi Harel, Stratton Hatfield, Ohad Hatzofe, Joseph Heymans,Constant Hoogstad, Mawdo J Jallow, Walter Jubber, Gregory Kaltenecker, Adam Kane, Chris Kelly, Alan & Meg Kemp, Corinne Kendall, Holger & ClaireKolberg, Bernard & Antje Madden, Glyn Maude, John Mendelsohn, Mike McGrady, Ara Monadjem, Campbell Murn, Ran Nathan, Karin Nelson, StoyanNikolov, Darcy Ogada, Steffen Oppel, Louis Phipps, Bram Piot, Thomas Rabeil, Sascha Rösner, Lizanne Roxburgh, Volker Salewski, Andrea Santangeli,Dana Schabo, Orr Spiegel, Lindy Thompson, Simon Thomsett, Dirk van Stuyvenberg, Rien van Wijk, Munir Virani, Tim Wacher, Kerri Wolter (VULPRO) andnumerous other African Raptor Databank observers; and by the following organisations: AFRICAN RAPTOR DATABANK, AFRICAN IMPACT, BIRDLIFEINTERNATIONAL & NATURESERVE, BIRDLIFE BULGARIA (BSPB), BIRDLIFE TUNISIA (AAO), BOISE STATE UNIVERSITY, CITES (MIKE DATABASE),ENDANGERED WILDLIFE TRUST, HAWK CONSERVANCY TRUST, HAWK MOUNTAIN SANCTUARY, INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATIONOF NATURE (AFRICAN ELEPHANT DATABASE & REDLIST MAPS), ISRAEL NATURE & PARKS AUTHORITY, NATURAL HISTORY MUSEUM (TRING),MOVEBANK, NIOKOLO-KOBA CITIZEN SCIENCE PROJECT, NORTH CAROLINA ZOO, RAPTORS BOTSWANA, RARE AND ENDANGERED SPECIESTRUST, ROYAL SOCIETY FOR THE PROTECTION OF BIRDS, TANZANIAN BIRD ATLAS, THE PEREGRINE FUND, UNIVERSITY OF UTAH, VULPRO,WEST AFRICAN BIRD DATABASE, WILDLIFE ACT and WILDLIFE CONSERVATION SOCIETY.

M ETHODS:We adde d g e o-re fe re ncing inform a tion to 444 re cords in th e pois oning s data b a s e m a inta ine d by Th e Pe re g rine Fund(Da rcy Og a da) a nd Enda ng e re d Wildlife Trus t (Liza nne Roxb urg h & Andre Both a ). Lou Ludding ton a s s is te d with th iswork. We adde d four fie lds to th e da ta ta b le : re s olution (7 cla s s e s a s pe r ARDB), g e ore fe re nce d by, vulture s kille d(y/n) a nd a da te -tim e fie ld to e na b le h ots pot m a pping ove r tim e . Th e s e e m pirical data of w h e re pois oning of vulture sa nd oth e r wildlife h a s actua lly occurre d acros s Africa could b e us e d in a s e pa ra te inductive m ode lling e xe rcis e us ingth e s a m e e xpla na tory va ria b le s a nd M a xe nt s oftw a re th a t we re us e d in th e vulture dis trib ution m ode lling . A like lih oodof pois oning is pre s e nte d in th e m a p. Th e m ode l yie lde d g ood re s ults with Are a Unde r th e Curve (AUC) value of 0.846for te s t re cords (15% of da ta w e re h e ld b ack for e va lua tion purpos e s ). A s ing le va ria b le ‘poa ch 10km ’ w h ich wa s acrude indicator of b oth e le ph a nt a nd rh ino poa ch ing com b ine d m a de th e la rg e s t contrib ution to th e m ode l, follow e d b yg ra s s cove r (m ore pois oning in g ra s s la nd h a b ita ts ) a nd pe rce nt non-Ch ris tia n a re a s (m ore pois oning in Ch ristia na re a s ). Indicators of live s tock fa rm ing a nd of dis ta nce to tra ditiona l m e dicine m a rke ts did not m a ke im porta ntcontrib utions to th e m ode l s ug g e s ting th a t inte ntiona l pois oning of vulture s a s s e ntine ls m a y b e th e b ig g e s t curre ntdrive r of pois oning (b ut it m a y b e m ore re porte d th a n oth e r type s ). But a noth e r va ria b le , dis ta nce to la rg e prote cte da re a (>1000km 2), h ad th e g re a te s t pe rm uta tion im porta nce , i.e . if th is va ria b le wa s a djus te d it ca us e d m os tpe rturb a nce . Cle a rly from th e m a p m ore vulture pois oning occurs in th e vicinity of la rg e prote cte d a re a s a nd th e re a res om e s im ila ritie s to th e com b ine d pois oning th re a t m a p w h ich wa s a de ductive m ode l.