Marine15 - ICE AustraliaMarine15 What the Future Brings and How To Be Prepared Bernard Salt 3 May 2015

Marine15

What the Future Brings and How To Be Prepared

Bernard Salt

3 May 2015

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How much debt is too much debt?

Source: Based on IMF Fiscal Monitor October 2014 Statistical Table 8 data & IMF World Economic Outlook Database October 2014 data; KPMG Demographics

Net Debt per cent GDP 2015 for countries over US$200 billion GDP * excl those not reporting Net Debt eg China & Russia

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

%

Norway (+215%)

Australia (-17%) Greece(-166%)

New Zealand (-27%)

US(-81%)

• 37 countries• GDP at least US$200bn• No data for China & Russia

UK(-85%)

Sydney

Melbourne

Hobart

Adelaide

Perth

Darwin

Brisbane

Canberra

Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

Australians have always been driven by lifestyle

Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1992 and 2014

WINNERS

LOSERS



23 years of continuous economic prosperity shapes a nation and its people … creates a culture of aspirational consumerism

Source: ABS Catalogue 5206.0 Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product; KPMG Demographics

Per cent change in Australian GDP by quarter from September 1959

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Sep-

1959

Mar

-196

0Se

p-19

60M

ar-1

961

Sep-

1961

Mar

-196

2Se

p-19

62M

ar-1

963

Sep-

1963

Mar

-196

4Se

p-19

64M

ar-1

965

Sep-

1965

Mar

-196

6Se

p-19

66M

ar-1

967

Sep-

1967

Mar

-196

8Se

p-19

68M

ar-1

969

Sep-

1969

Mar

-197

0Se

p-19

70M

ar-1

971

Sep-

1971

Mar

-197

2Se

p-19

72M

ar-1

973

Sep-

1973

Mar

-197

4Se

p-19

74M

ar-1

975

Sep-

1975

Mar

-197

6Se

p-19

76M

ar-1

977

Sep-

1977

Mar

-197

8Se

p-19

78M

ar-1

979

Sep-

1979

Mar

-198

0Se

p-19

80M

ar-1

981

Sep-

1981

Mar

-198

2Se

p-19

82M

ar-1

983

Sep-

1983

Mar

-198

4Se

p-19

84M

ar-1

985

Sep-

1985

Mar

-198

6Se

p-19

86M

ar-1

987

Sep-

1987

Mar

-198

8Se

p-19

88M

ar-1

989

Sep-

1989

Mar

-199

0Se

p-19

90M

ar-1

991

Sep-

1991

Mar

-199

2Se

p-19

92M

ar-1

993

Sep-

1993

Mar

-199

4Se

p-19

94M

ar-1

995

Sep-

1995

Mar

-199

6Se

p-19

96M

ar-1

997

Sep-

1997

Mar

-199

8Se

p-19

98M

ar-1

999

Sep-

1999

Mar

-200

0Se

p-20

00M

ar-2

001

Sep-

2001

Mar

-200

2Se

p-20

02M

ar-2

003

Sep-

2003

Mar

-200

4Se

p-20

04M

ar-2

005

Sep-

2005

Mar

-200

6Se

p-20

06M

ar-2

007

Sep-

2007

Mar

-200

8Se

p-20

08M

ar-2

009

Sep-

2009

Mar

-201

0Se

p-20

10M

ar-2

011

Sep-

2011

Mar

-201

2Se

p-20

12M

ar-2

013

Sep-

2013

Mar

-201

4Se

p-20

14

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

MenziesWhitlam

Fraser

Hawke

GST GFC



Australia is now an Anglo-Mediterranean-Asian-Indian fusion culture


United Kingdom1.0 million1

New Zealand617,0002

China447,0003

India397,0004

5 Philippines225,000

Vietnam223,0006

Italy202,0007

South Africa176,0008

Malaysia154,0009

Germany129,00010



New acronyms for our newest tribes

PUMCINS …→ Professional Urban Middle Class In Nice Suburbs

…NETTELs ←Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life

KIPPERS …→ Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings

…LOMBARDS←Lots Of Money But A Real Dickhead

Source: KPMG Demographics



Population hotspots cluster on the coast … we should be a boating nation!

19541 Sydney 1,8632 Melbourne 1,5243 Brisbane 5024 Adelaide 4845 Perth 3496 Newcastle 1787 Hobart 958 Wollongong 919 Geelong 72

10 Launceston 4911 Ballarat 4812 Toowoomba 4313 Rockhampton 4114 Townsville 4015 Ipswich 3916 Bendigo 3717 Broken Hill 3118 Canberra 2819 Blue Mountains 2320 Kalgoorlie 23

20141 Sydney 4,8412 Melbourne 4,4403 Brisbane 2,2754 Perth 2,0215 Adelaide 1,3056 Gold Coast - Tweed 6147 Newcastle - Maitland 4318 Canberra - Queanbeyan 4239 Sunshine Coast 297

10 Wollongong 28911 Greater Hobart 21912 Geelong 18413 Townsville 17914 Cairns 14715 Greater Darwin 14016 Toowoomba 11417 Ballarat 9918 Bendigo 9219 Albury - Wodonga 8820 Launceston 86

20501 Sydney 7,6882 Melbourne 7,6703 Perth 4,6334 Brisbane 4,1885 Adelaide 1,7976 Gold Coast - Tweed 1,2257 Canberra - Queanbeyan 7228 Newcastle - Maitland 5889 Sunshine Coast 503

10 Wollongong 38411 Townsville 34012 Geelong 30113 Greater Hobart 26514 Cairns 22515 Greater Darwin 20916 Toowoomba 19717 Mackay 19318 Ballarat 18119 Bendigo 16120 Rockhampton 142

Population figures expressed in ‘000s

Source: KPMG; based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics; relevant State Government planning authorities

2014-502,8473,2302,3582,16749261129116520695

1211178678698394897356



Even small fast-growing towns tend to be coastal

Percentage growth in population over 12 months to June 2014 for the 100 largest significant urban areas (SUA) in AustraliaSource: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

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PerthDarwin

Brisbane

Canberra

Melbourne

SydneyAdelaide

Hobart

1. Ellenbrook2. Melton3. Karratha4. Gladstone-Tannum Sands 5. Busselton

6. Ocean Grove-Pt Lonsdale7. Bunbury8. Bacchus Marsh9. Torquay10. Warragul-Drouin

100. Kalgoorlie-Boulder99. Grafton98. Moe-Newborough97. Colac96. Lismore



Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2014 and 10 years to 2024Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

Water-based leisure and boating has relevance to all age groups

2004-2014: 3.6 million (19.9m to 23.5m)

-50,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

2014-2024: 4.2 million (23.5m to 27.7m)

Kids & teenagers

• Surfing• Canoeing/kayaking

Families

• Houseboats• Fishing

Mature adults

Prestige boats

Active retirees

Cruises

20s

• Socialising• Jet skis



Water-based leisure activities are part of the Australian lifestyle


Sports and physical activities participated in by Australians by sex in 2013 - 2014 Population (‘000)

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Squash / RacquetballHockey (indoor and outdoor)

Canoeing / Kayaking / Dragon boat…Horse riding / Equestrian activities / Polo

FishingLawn bowlsSurf sports

PilatesIndoor soccer

Outdoor cricketMartial arts

Australian Rules footballDancing / Ballet

Bush walkingYoga

Basketball (indoor & outdoor)Netball (Indoor and outdoor)

Outdoor soccerTennis (indoor and outdoor)

GolfCycling / BMXing

Swimming / DivingJogging / Running

Fitness / GymWalking for exercise

Males Females

Water

Water

Surf



Australians are dividing the lifecycle into ‘thirds’

0 9010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Child Adult Old1934

Child Teen OldAdult1974 71

Child Adolescence Lifestyle OldRetired2014

Adult82

63

Change in life expectancy over 80 years in AustraliaSource: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics



From Boomers to Xers and Ys … and finally to Zeds


Forgotten generationWrong place … wrong timeNo workplace guiltAngsty about Ys

XGENERATION

■ Born 1965 – 1982■ Today 32 – 49

HierarchicalIndulged their kidsDepression era parentsSandwich generation

BABYBOOMERS

■ Born 1946 – 1964■ Today 50 – 68

YGENERATION

Special … bubble-wrapChaotic connectionEntrepreneurialsDisappointed generation?

■ Born 1983 – 2000■ Today 14 – 31

Parents results-orientedYouth in straitened timesHighly educated, globalPragmatists … fixers

ZGENERATION

■ Born 2001 – 2019■ Today 0 – 13



There has been a shift in the Australian economy towards knowledge workers

Hea

lthca

re&

Soc

ial A

ssis

t.

Prof

essi

onal

/Sc

ient

ific/

Tech

.

Publ

ic A

dmin

&

Saf

ety

Acc

om &

Foo

d

Adm

in &

Sup

port

Min

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Educ

atio

n &

Trai

ning

Art

s &

Rec

reat

ion

Fina

ncia

l &In

sura

nce

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er S

ervi

ces

Ret

ail T

rade

Who

lesa

le T

rade

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tal/h

iring

&R

eal E

stat

e

Info

Med

ia &

Te

leco

ms

Man

ufac

turin

g

6 years February 2009 – up 1.4m (9.4m – 10.8m)

Elec

tric

ity/G

as/

Wat

er &

Was

te

Agr

icul

ture

/For

estr

y &

Fis

hing

Tran

spor

t/Pos

tal/

War

ehou

se

Healthcare & Social Assistance

Professionals & Sciences

EducationAccommodation

& Food

6 years February 2015 – up 1.0m (10.8m – 11.8m)

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Con

stru

ctio

n




The Australian boat building and allied services industries are changing

Industry 2011 %Port and Water Transport Terminal Operations 6,574 46% Includes ports & freight, water passenger terminal, ship

mooring, wharf operation

Scenic and Sightseeing Transport 5,469 21% Includes charter fishing boat operation, hovercraft operation, airboat operation

Shipbuilding and Repair Services 6,260 14% Ship building

Water Passenger Transport 1,623 4% Boat charter, lease or rental, ferry operation (boat & passenger), water taxi

Marine Equipment Retailing 2,580 -15% Boat retailing, boat trailers, marine accessories, outboard motors, yachts, nautical/sailing accessories

Boatbuilding and Repair Services 6,044 -28% Boat building (canoes, dinghies, jet boats, motorboats, sailboats, yachts) & repairs

Occupation 2011 %

Boat Builder and Repairer 2,691 -33%





Where are the opportunities in 2015

Australia is a first-world nation that has enjoyed an era of unparalleled prosperity ...that has converted into an interest in leisure boating1

The Baby Boomers have passed through ‘peak boating’ over the last 20 years… the challenge will be to engage their Gen Y children2

Most of the Australian population is located near water and has a predisposition towater-based leisure … boating should come naturally to this community3

Boat building is shedding jobs in Australia and the scope for new marinas islimited … demand for trailer boats and ramps must increase as must the boatimporting business

4

The challenge is to remain connected with a boating or water-based offer to allage groups and especially the 20-Something Gen Ys!5



Introducing the Gold Coast bachelor hot spot

Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged 25-34 at the 2011 Census

“Golf Club of Love”


Reedy Creek2.41:1

Surfers Paradise1.85:1

Burleigh Golf Club



@bernardsalt

Bernard Salt Demographer

linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt

[email protected]

+61 3 9288 5047

www.bernardsalt.com.au

@bernardsalt

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Marine15 - ICE AustraliaMarine15 What the Future Brings and How To Be Prepared Bernard Salt 3 May 2015