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The Development of an Integrated, Ecosystem Service Modeling Tool to support decision making in the Manawatu River Watershed. Marjan van den Belt and Roelof M Boumans. Site description of the Manawatu River:. Content: What are the Natural resources and what are the issues? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The Development of an Integrated, Ecosystem Service Modeling Tool to
support decision making in the Manawatu River Watershed
Marjan van den Beltand
Roelof M Boumans
Site description of the Manawatu River:
• Content: What are the Natural resources and what are the issues?
• Space: Location Size and distribution of uses• Time: Pre, post and future settlement
dynamics (story)
Manawatu land cover: Pre- and Post Settlement
Source: Landcare Research. Complements of Anthony Cole
Methods
1.Scoping model 2.Research model3.Management model
How do Modelling Tools support Planning and Adaptive Management?
Source: van den Belt, 2009
Methods Integrated Freshwater Solutions (IFS)
1.Scoping: Mediated Modeling
2.Research model – FIT, Manawatu Model
3.Management model - MIMES
ScopingDefine scoping
Mediated Modelling for Integrated Freshwater Solutions:
A case study of the Manawatū Catchment
Research
• Define research• FIT• Manawatu River, New Zealand• Multi-scale Integrated Modelling for
Ecosystem Services (MIMES) to support science-policy dialogue:
Management Model
• Define Management model• Management options suggested by the IFS
process executed under the MIMES research model context.
Results
• IFS• Manawatu MIMES base case scenario• Manawatu MIMES simulating:
– IFS (stakeholder dialogue based) scenarios: • erosion control, • nutrient management, • riparian planting
– Contribution of Economic and Ecosystem Services supplied and requested, when following the market or non-market values.
IFS – value context• Overall participants believed sedimentation, nutrient runoff,
wastewater discharge and aquatic habitat were the main issues. • On the 16 of March 2011 these issues were verified by an
expert science panel who discuss the underlying scientific questions.– Verification of the base case scenario. – Validation through calibration of model output.– Identifying Probability ranges for the non-controlable factors. – Identifying controllable factors of use in management scenarios.
• Value context of issues (MRLF Accord Goals): Mana and Pride, Human Health, Economic Prosperity, Direct utility.
IFS-MM overview
Ecosystem Service Valuationstarting framework
Natural Capital Ecosystem Services
ValuesActions
Ecosystem functions: The capacity of natural processes and components to provide goods and services that satisfy human needs. (de Groot, 1992)Ecosystem Services: Valued Ecosystem Functions.
R.S. de Groot et al. / Ecological Economics 41 (2002) 393–408
IFS-MM ResultLand Use / Land CoverForest, Wetland, Riparian, River/Lake, Urban, Dairy, Sheep&Beef, Horticulture
Ecosystem ServicesFunctioning index (slider)
ValuesCost of actionsBenefit Transferred ESStakeholder dialogue
ActionsErosion control (SLUI)Nutrient managementRiparian PlantingWaste Water TreatmentRestoration
Impacts of Erosion, Nutrient runoff and habitat loss
Natural Capital (and changes in land use)•Forest•Wetlands•Rivers and Streams •Estuary and coast •Dairy•Beef & Sheep•Horticulture•Urban
Ecosystem Services•Storm protection•Food•Habitat provision•Nutrient cycling•Climate regulation and carbon cycling•Recreation
(E)Valuation•Stakeholder participation•National, regional and local funding sources for actions.•CBA, EIA and CEA.•Cultural and spiritual values•Perceived or non-perceived benefits •Changes over time and time delays
Action Plan•Fencing of Streams and riparian planting•SLUI and reforestation•Wetland restoration•Nitrogen management and herd homesPoint source reduction
Impacts •Erosion and sedimentation•Nutrient runoff and eutrophication•Aquatic habitat
IFS scoping model integrates important drivers, as identified by stakeholders
• Erosion and sedimentation• Nitrogen runoff/leaking and eutrophication• Habitat and biodiversity
Sediment loading in tonnes per year
1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
5 Million
3 Million
1 Million
Sediment loading in tonnes per year
1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
5 Million
3 Million
1 Million
Sediment loading in tonnes per year
1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
5 Million
3 Million
1 Million
blue line- 1: WITH SLUIred line -2: Without SLUI pink line -3: Reaching SLUI goals in 2020 instead of 2030
Nitrogen loading in tonnes per year
1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
10,000
5,000
0
Impact of SLUI on Nitrogen loading smaller than on Sediment loading
Nitrogen loading in tonnes per year
1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
10,000
5,000
0
blue line- 1: base line under business-as-usual
Nitrogen loading in tonnes per year
1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
10,000
5,000
0
Blue line- 1: base line under business-as-usualRed line- 2: stock exclusion $300,000
Nitrogen loading in tonnes per year
1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
10,000
5,000
0
Blue 1: Base line under business-as-usualRed 2: Full effluent managementPink 3: Stock exclusion / fencing ($300,000)Green 4: Herd homes (40% N reduction)
Nitrogen loading in tonnes per year
1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
10,000
5,000
0
Blue 1: Base line under business-as-usualRed 2: Currently funded and implemented Non-Point Source measuresPink: 25% reduction in Point Source waste water
Phosphorus loading in tonnes per year
1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
300
150
0
Blue 1: Base line under business-as-usualRed 2: 50% reduction in Point Source waste water
Cows per hectare (1990 – 2040)
IFS management scenarios
MIMES boundaries
• Manawatu is modelled as a closed system• 49 sub-watersheds• Daily time step + yearly aggregated outputs• Time extent 1995 – 2011 (weather data)• 2012 – 2100 (climate change scenarios)
Scenario plan
Human-Environment Interaction Matrix – Full systems accounting
Supply of ES from LandCover
• Forest gives a mix of ES
Production Econ Goods and Services
• Cobb Douglas including ES from Land.• Land use use change, changes distribution of
ES production• Distribution of ES drives production of Econ
Goods and Services.• Production of Econ GS creates externalities by
changing the ability of landcover to produce ES.
Scenarios
1) Erosion control 2) Nutrient Management3) Riparian planting4) Wastewater management5) Restoration of Forest and wetland
Manawatu MIMES - Qualitative overview
CatchmentsCatchments
Hydrological model
Land cover
Demographics coefficients
Land use
Demographics:Built capital
Water routing
Land environments
Land cover
Land use:N loadingWater
Land use
Demographics: population effect
Rain
Ecosystem goods and services
model Conversion
EcosystemServices
Water quality standards
Catchments
Manawatu MIMES – Data base links
CatchmentsCatchments
WATYIELD
The New Zealand Land Cover Database
Demographics By ANZSIC 2006 – industry classification
Land use change as emergent behavior
Input for local investment scenarios
FENZ
13 underlying climate, landform and soil variables
8 Land covers
7 land uses
7x7 Land use change
Demographics: 1 Population effect2 Business as Usual3 Restoration
Dynamics in goods and
service trade-offs
Emergent dynamics in EcosystemServices (see output slide 17)
Resource Management Act 1991
Freshwater Ecosystems of New Zealand (FENZ GIS)
Land Environments of New Zealand (LENZ)Database
8 user groups
Input for land use change scenarios
Simulated flooding – base case
Emergent dynamics of 8 (of X potential) Ecosystem Services
The Management Modelbased on IFS (stakeholder generated)
Watershed Scenario Analyses
Manawatu MIMES – Data base links – Best Management Practices scenarios
CatchmentsCatchments
WATYIELD
The New Zealand Land Cover Database
Demographics By ANZSIC 2006 – industry classification
Land use change as emergent behavior
Input for local investment scenarios
FENZ
13 underlying climate, landform and soil variables
8 Land covers
7 land uses
7x7 Land use change
Demographics: 1 Population effect2 Business as Usual3 Restoration
Dynamics in goods and
service trade-offs
Emergent dynamics in EcosystemServices (see output slide 17)
Resource Management Act 1991
Freshwater Ecosystems of New Zealand (FENZ GIS)
Land Environments of New Zealand (LENZ)Database
8 user groups
Input for land use change scenarios
Parameters derived from LENZ
Level 2 LENZ Classification1 F1`2 C13 NULL_4 H15 B16 F77 P48 J49 C210 C311 P812 F413 I2
SLUI
Manawatu MIMES – Data base links – Land Use change scenarios
CatchmentsCatchments
WATYIELD
The New Zealand Land Cover Database
Demographics By ANZSIC 2006 – industry classification
Land use change as emergent behavior
Input for local investment scenarios
FENZ
13 underlying climate, landform and soil variables
8 Land covers
7 land uses
7x7 Land use change
Demographics: 1 Population effect2 Business as Usual3 Restoration
Dynamics in goods and
service trade-offs
Emergent dynamics in EcosystemServices (see output slide 17)
Resource Management Act 1991
Freshwater Ecosystems of New Zealand (FENZ GIS)
Land Environments of New Zealand (LENZ)Database
8 user groups
Input for land use change scenarios
IFS trends in Land use change Scenarios
Manawatu MIMES – Data base links
CatchmentsCatchments
WATYIELD
The New Zealand Land Cover Database
Demographics By ANZSIC 2006 – industry classification
Land use change as emergent behavior
Input for local investment scenarios
FENZ
13 underlying climate, landform and soil variables
8 Land covers
7 land uses
7x7 Land use change
Demographics: 1 Population effect2 Business as Usual3 Restoration
Dynamics in goods and
service trade-offs
Emergent dynamics in EcosystemServices (see output slide 17)
Resource Management Act 1991
Freshwater Ecosystems of New Zealand (FENZ GIS)
Land Environments of New Zealand (LENZ)Database
8 user groups
Input for land use change scenarios
Hydrological RoutingData uploaded in “connect to” informsCond3 on what watershed (here) is connected to what watershed (there).Only those Surface water flow will be calculated for where watershed are connected (cond3 is true)Flows are based on water head differences and the speed of the water flow through the watersheds .The hydrological routing routine doublesto also account for Nitrogen exchanges among the watersheds
Manawatu MIMES – Data base links
CatchmentsCatchments
WATYIELD
The New Zealand Land Cover Database
Demographics By ANZSIC 2006 – industry classification
Land use change as emergent behavior
Input for local investment scenarios
FENZ
13 underlying climate, landform and soil variables
8 Land covers
7 land uses
7x7 Land use change
Demographics: 1 Population effect2 Business as Usual3 Restoration
Dynamics in goods and
service trade-offs
Emergent dynamics in EcosystemServices (see output slide 17)
Resource Management Act 1991
Freshwater Ecosystems of New Zealand (FENZ GIS)
Land Environments of New Zealand (LENZ)Database
8 user groups
Input for land use change scenarios
1) Needs and wants by demographics for Labor, Capital, economic and ecological services
IFS scenarios:1) Link to Environmental Impact. Days in watershed 3) Sector growth rate relative to economic prosperity
Demographics by economic sector characteristics
The Management Modelbased on IFS (stakeholder generated)
Watershed Scenario Analyses
Defining the interface to communicate scenarios; Organizing Model output spatial displays variables (25 variables for 49 sub-catchments)1) Upload of watershed polygon coordinates2) Inclusion of output variables to display3) Inclusion of graphical input variables
Zooming in on a sub-catchment: Model output graphical displays
User control parameter to be used in the user interface to allow a choice for the first year for analyses.
Based on the IFs model Year also informs the growth rate of the Dairy industry
Functionality to sample year relevant time series data. In this case there is a choice between measured data at Wanganui
Spriggens Park (choice scenario) or rainfall predicted by one of the GCC scenarios (Base scenario). Science – Policy
communication
The Management Modelbased on IFS (stakeholder generated)
Watershed Scenario Analyses
Spatial Dynamic Simulations
Characterization of the WatershedLENZ attributes are weighted by Land Environment distribution in the subwatershed. Further weighting occurs when attributes are landcover; landuse within landcover; or demographics within landuse within landcover specific.Scenarios on Best management practices specific to the land environments (water requirements and Nitrogen loading) can be specified by variations to the demographics within landuse within landcover within Land Environment attributes.
HydrologyThe Hydrology based on WATYIELD simulates the changes in water storage in the soils, the ground water and the surface water . Added to the hydrology are the dynamics in Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen to monitor the effects of changes in nutrient loadings to facilitate the IFS loading scenarios:1) SLUI, 2) Riparian planting, 3) wastewater management,4) Urban Stormwater Management, 5) Restoration of Forest and wetland, 6) Sustainable Farm Nutrient
Management
Similar dynamics on Suspended sediments and E coli are not yet implemented
Establish watershed flooding conditions
The water level submodel in the hydrology establishes the hypsometrical curve of the watershed and is used to flag flooding conditions.
Watershed wide estimates in the availability of ecosystem services.
Translation of what is produced by the ecosystem to what is demanded by the demographic groups
Demographics and economic efficiency of ecosystem service users in the sub watersheds.
This sub model attributes people and what they do to the sub-watershed.This sub-model is to facilitate scenarios for local capital investments (e.g. expending, or decreasing dairy farming in a sub watershed). The sub model calculates the efficiency of each of the sectors based on capital investment and services available (to include those of the ecosystems). It specifies the number of people in the watershed associated with each of the economic sectors. The number of people together with the land environment specific effect on the N loading and waters use determines the ecological impacts
Land use land cover changesThe watershed submodel to accomodate the land cover change simulations. While ecosystem services are associated with the landcovers, they are the landuses that are changed with population pressures and economic investments.
The Scenario variables: Conditions for riparian restoration and, Restoration to reduce erosion from highlands are introduced for place based planning.
Landcover Change User Interface
Design of the SLUI scenarios in IFS
• Nr of Highly erodible farms targeted by year
• Expedient targeting• What SLUI action means:
– Reduction in Sheep and Beef N Loads
– Reduction in Sheep and Beef SS loads
Design of SLUI Scenarios in Spatial IFs
• Highly erodible farms are Sheep and beef investments in watersheds with land environments characterized as highly erodible.
• Stategies for Expedient targeting can be designed to implement SLUI in those subwatersheds charaterized by highly erodable land environment and high concentrations of Sheep and beef production
• What SLUI action means:– Land cover change from pasture to forests on the steep slopes, for the
trade-off from grazing to Ecosystem Service benefits associated with Forests
– Reduction in Sheep and Beef N and SS Loads• How is SLUI best implemented?
Design of the Farm Nutrient mgt improvement
IFSThe trade-offs between yes or no herd homes or
stock exclusions versus nutrient loadings and economic loss (gain)
Manawatu MIMES: The trade-offs between yes or no herd homes or stock exclusions in environmental sensitive areas (hot spot approach) versus nutrient loadings and economic loss (gain)
Design of the Town and Industrial Waste water Nutrient removal
• IFs watershed wide• Spatial IFs Time and space specific based on Land
Environments and spatial context to neighboring watersheds.– Water requirements and Nutrient loadings are specific to
Demographic groups (Urbanites, farmers, Iwi etc) within a land Use (Pasture, cropland residential, conservation etc) within a landcover (Forest, Grassland) within a Land Environment (Steep slopes, fertile soils etc).
– Failure to limit nutrient removal will record as impact water quality changes in watersheds down stream.
Design of the Restoration Scenarios
• IFs : Riparian planting, wetlands, Infiltration areas
LocationsBiosphere
Earth Surfaces
NutrientCycling
Hydrosphere Lithosphere Atmosphere
Anthroposphere
Cultures
Biodiversity
EcosystemServices
Water by
Reservoir
Geological Carbon
Ores
Earth Energy
Gasses
ExchangesBetweenLocations
Social Capital
Human Capital
Economie
MIMES organization and Interaction Matrix
Ontologies
Ecosystems/
Land cover
Cropland
Desert
Forest
Grassland
Lakes Rivers
Urban
Wetland
Demographic Groups /Econ Sectors and Quality of Life MIX
MiningForestryFisheriesAgricultureManufacturingTourismResearch/EducationHouseholdsTransportation In-Export
Services (7)Aesthetics
Biological regulation
Climate regulation
Cultural heritage
Genetic
Inorganic resources
Natural Hazard Mitigation
Navigational surface
Organic resources
Shelter
Soil retention
Spiritual Artistic Inspiration
Waste absorption
Water quality
Water quantity
Scenarios
1) Erosion control 2) Nutrient Management3) Riparian planting4) Wastewater management5) Restoration of Forest and wetland
Scenarios roel – exogenous drivers
• Land use changes (BAU + population of people attracted by business, more urban areas)
• Decision point for restoration rates for whole watershed
Scenarios Roel endogenous per sub-catchment
• IF $ for erosion control allocated to highly erodable areas THEN future map shows 1. $ spent in watersheds 2a. land cover effect of change from pasture to forest (in ES) 2b. Land use effect in total animals per sub-catchment (sheep units). 3. effect on farm income per sub-watershed 4. effect on non-market values.
Out put variables for display
The Manuwatu MIMES User Interface for Scenario ModelingThe Introduction Page
Interface for the design of Erosion Control scenarios
Interface for the Design of Nutrient Management Scenarios
Interface for the Design of Fencing and Riparian Planting Scenarios
Interface for the Design of Waste Water Treatment Scenarios
Interface for the Design of Scenarios concerning the Investment into Natural Capital