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Mark DynarskiMark Dynarski
Presented at the Albert Shanker Presented at the Albert Shanker Institute Forum on Dropout Institute Forum on Dropout
PreventionPrevention
May 3, 2007May 3, 2007
Evidence of Effective Approaches for Reducing Dropout
Dropout Continues to Be a ProblemDropout Continues to Be a Problem
Dropout rate has declined since 1970 but no progress recently
Significant gap for minority students
High rate for Hispanics (about 25%)
Significant increase in spending
Dropout rate has declined since 1970 but no progress recently
Significant gap for minority students
High rate for Hispanics (about 25%)
Significant increase in spending
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Dropout Rates in the United States, 2004Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Dropout Rates in the United States, 2004
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Dropout Rates in the United States, 2004Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Dropout Rates in the United States, 2004
K-12 Public Education Spending 1990-2002
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Year
Constant Dollars
Per Pupil
Source: Digest of Education Statistics, Table 162Source: Digest of Education Statistics, Table 162
WWC Systematic ReviewsWWC Systematic Reviews
Objective: What has research found about effectiveness?
Approach:– Identify interventions– Identify studies of them– Rate quality of evidence– Rate effectiveness of interventions
Objective: What has research found about effectiveness?
Approach:– Identify interventions– Identify studies of them– Rate quality of evidence– Rate effectiveness of interventions
WWC Dropout ReviewWWC Dropout Review
Presumed audience: state task force
Interventions included:– Aim to keep students in school – Serve grades 6-12, under age 20– Have studies released after 1983
Outcome domains: staying in school, progressing, and completing
Presumed audience: state task force
Interventions included:– Aim to keep students in school – Serve grades 6-12, under age 20– Have studies released after 1983
Outcome domains: staying in school, progressing, and completing
Analyzing the LiteratureAnalyzing the Literature
Unduplicated references to dropout (EBSCOhost): 4,000
Studies of effectiveness: about 85
About 15 studies met WWC standards
Unduplicated references to dropout (EBSCOhost): 4,000
Studies of effectiveness: about 85
About 15 studies met WWC standards
Why So Few?Why So Few?
Not many effectiveness studies
Common for one study to be cited often
Study designs or weaknesses preclude causal claims
Not many effectiveness studies
Common for one study to be cited often
Study designs or weaknesses preclude causal claims
ObservationsObservations
Starting point for identifying programs based on evidence of effectiveness
– GED programs not yet examined Issue of disconnected youth
– Programs to improve academics not included
Not much evidence
Starting point for identifying programs based on evidence of effectiveness
– GED programs not yet examined Issue of disconnected youth
– Programs to improve academics not included
Not much evidence
Program FeaturesProgram Features
Middle School
High School
Adult Advocate or Counselor
Small School or
Unit
Thematic or Accelerated
Curricula
School to Career or
Experiential Learning
Parental Involvement
ALAS Career Academies Check and Connect Financial Incentives High School Redirection Middle College High School Talent Search Twelve Together
Middle School
High School
Adult Advocate or Counselor
Small School or
Unit
Thematic or Accelerated
Curricula
School to Career or
Experiential Learning
Parental Involvement
ALAS Career Academies Check and Connect Financial Incentives High School Redirection Middle College High School Talent Search Twelve Together
Source: whatworks.ed.govSource: whatworks.ed.gov
Other ConsiderationsOther Considerations
Many regret dropping out but do it anyway
– May think they will do better than others– School is unpleasant; regrets are worth it
Can we predict dropouts to focus services?
– No need to worry about targeting if we have a lot of money or programs are cheap
– Teachers may be better than existing data for identifying potential dropouts
Many regret dropping out but do it anyway
– May think they will do better than others– School is unpleasant; regrets are worth it
Can we predict dropouts to focus services?
– No need to worry about targeting if we have a lot of money or programs are cheap
– Teachers may be better than existing data for identifying potential dropouts