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    Market OutlookOctober 16, 2012

    www.angelbroking.com

    Market OutlookOctober 16, 2012

    Dealers Diary

    The Indian markets are expected to open flat with positive bias tracking positive

    opening in most of the Asian markets with exporters and banks notably advancing

    after some surprisingly strong U.S. economic data and earnings.

    The U.S. markets closed higher yesterday, buoyed by strength in the healthcare

    and bank sectors after data showed some improvement in the economy and

    Citigroup Inc. reported core earnings that topped analyst expectations. In the U.S.,

    an economic report showed that retail sales increased by 1.1% in September

    (expectation 0.7%) following a revised 1.2% increase in August. A separate report

    showed that its index of New York manufacturing increased in October compared

    to the previous month but remained in negative territory. Positive sentiment was

    also generated by the release of benign inflation data from China, which

    generated some optimism about the possibility of further stimulus.

    Meanwhile the Indian markets reversed early losses to end modestly higheryesterday, supported by firm European cues on hopes that Spain is getting closer to

    asking a bailout. India's headline inflation rate came in at 7.81% for September, a

    10-month high.

    Markets TodayThe trend deciding level for the day is 18,679 / 5,677 levels. If NIFTY trades above

    this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

    up to 18,761 18,809 / 5,704 5,720 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

    18,679 / 5,677 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

    18,631 18,549 / 5,661 5,635 levels.

    SENSEX 18,549 18,631 18,679 18,761 18,809

    NIFTY 5,635 5,661 5,677 5,704 5,720

    News Analysis WPI inflation expectedly rises to 7.81% TTMTs global sales down 3.4% yoy in September 2012 JSW Steel Crude steel production for September 2012 and 2QFY2013 2QFY2013 Result Review: Reliance Industries, Axis Bank 2QFY2013 Result Preview: Shree Cement, MindTreeRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

    Net Inflows (October 12, 2012)

    FII 3,399 2,411 988 9,020 92,801

    MFs 473 472 1 (1,760) (14,392)

    FII Derivatives (October 15, 2012)

    Index Futures 1,523 1,239 284 15,271

    Stock Futures 884 855 28 30,757

    Gainers / Losers

    Syndicate Bank 120 4.5 TTK Prestige 3,146 (5.1)

    Godrej Industries 291 3.8 Maruti Suzuki 1,338 (2.5)

    Sun TV Network 365 3.7 Aurobindo Pharma 156 (2.4)

    Motherson Sumi 155 3.5 Federal Bank 472 (2.3)

    Oberoi Realty 269 3.3 Glenmark Pharma 411 (2.3)

    BSE Sensex 0.2 38.4 18,714

    Nifty (0.6) (32.0) 5,676

    MID CAP 0.1 4.2 6,681

    SMALL CAP 0.4 30.5 7,140

    BSE HC 0.3 24.6 7,595

    BSE PSU 0.1 4.6 7,424

    BANKEX 0.4 48.6 13,135

    AUTO (0.3) (30.7) 10,244

    METAL (0.1) (9.3) 10,611

    OIL & GAS 0.5 45.3 8,589

    BSE IT (0.8) (43.8) 5,685

    Dow Jones 0.7 95.4 13,424NASDAQ 0.7 20.1 3,064

    FTSE 0.2 12.3 5,806

    Nikkei 0.5 43.8 8,578

    Hang Seng 0.1 11.8 21,148

    Straits Times 0.0 1.3 3,043

    Shanghai Com (0.3) (6.2) 2,099

    INFY (0.1) (0.0) $44.6

    WIT (1.1) (0.1) $8.5IBN (1.3) (0.5) $40.0

    HDB (0.4) (0.2) $37.7

    Advances 1,494 655

    Declines 1,353 843

    Unchanged 134 77

    BSE 1,831

    NSE 8,599

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    Market OutlookOctober 16, 2012

    WPI inflation expectedly rises to 7.81%

    Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation for the month of September 2012 surged to a

    tenmonth high, remaining sticky above the 7% level despite a high base. Inflation

    expectedly inched up to 7.81% during September 2012 as compared to 7.55% in

    August 2012 and 10.0% in September 2011. The rise in headline inflation isprimarily driven by fuel inflation on account of the hike in fuel prices.

    Inflation for the month of July 2012 has been revised upwards significantly to

    7.52% as compared to provisional estimate of 6.87% due to revision in electricity

    tariff which led fuel and power inflation to increase to 8.32% as compared to

    5.98% reported earlier.

    Primary Articles inflation eased to 8.77% in September 2012 as compared to

    10.08% during August 2012. Inflation in food articles moderated for the third

    straight month to 7.86% as compared to 9.14% in the previous month. Fuel and

    Power inflation surged to 11.88% in September 2012 from 8.32% in the previous

    month reflecting the impact of hike in fuel price to some extent. Inflation in

    Manufactured Products, having the highest weightage in the WPI, rose to 6.26%

    during the month as compared to 6.14% in August 2012 and 8.0% in the

    corresponding period of the previous year.

    On a positive note, inflation in Manufactured Products, on a m-o-m basis,

    increased by merely 0.54% (and 0.07% on a m-o-m annualized basis) indicating

    that demand-side pressures are in check. Also, core inflation witnessed stability

    during the month at around 5.5%.

    In our view, in light of the overall high headline inflation, it would be difficult for

    the RBI to have a meaningful change in stance towards being dovish. The recentreforms by the government have been cited as grounds for the RBI to cut rates in

    the upcoming policy. While we do not rule out the possibility of such a cut, we do

    believe that for the fiscal year as a whole rate cuts are unlikely to be more than 25

    50bps. We believe that the RBIs tone is likely to be largely hawkish and its

    vigilance on inflation is likely to continue in the near-term.

    TTMTs global sales down 3.4% yoy in September 2012

    Tata Motors (TTMT) reported a 3.4% yoy decline in total global wholesale volumes

    for September 2012 to 103,656 units due to a 12% yoy decline in global

    passenger vehicle (PV) volumes. Sequentially, total volumes increased by 6.6%

    primarily on account of a 9.3% improvement in global commercial vehicle (CV)

    sales. Global PV volumes registered a poor performance as domestic PV segment

    reported sluggish volumes. Jaguar - Land Rover (JLR) too, posted lower-than-

    expected volumes with total JLR sales witnessing a decline of 4.3% yoy (up 10%

    yoy) to 26,461 units. The poor JLR performance was due to 49.2% yoy decline in

    Jaguar volumes to 2,808 units (down 5.1% mom) and also on account of lower

    production of Range Rover which is set to be re-launched later this year. Land

    Rover sales on the other hand posted an in-line growth of 7% yoy (strong 12.1%

    mom) to 23,653 units. On the retail front however, JLR volumes continue to

    remain strong and registered a 22% yoy growth driven by 51% growth inChina and 21% growth in North America. While retail sales of Jaguar declined

    7% yoy; Land Rover posted a robust 31% yoy growth on the back of the growth

    in Evoque.

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    Market OutlookOctober 16, 2012

    While the JLR volume growth is expected to remain under pressure ahead of the

    launch of the new Range Rover, we expect volumes to gain traction post the launch

    and it will help the company record ~14% volume growth in FY2013. Further,

    strong growth in China (sales up 98% in FY2012) will also benefit the overall

    volume growth of JLR. At the current market price of `269, the stock is trading at

    6.1x and 3.3x FY2014E earnings and EV/EBITDA, respectively.

    JSW Steel Crude steel production for September 2012 and2QFY2013

    JSW Steel reported robust Crude steel production for September 2012 and

    2QFY2013. Crude steel production for the month of September increased 54.0%

    yoy to 0.73mn tonnes. The high production growth was mainly due to lower base

    effect as 2QFY2012 production was affected on account of Supreme Court ban on

    mining in Karnataka. The rolled long production increased by 47.0% yoy to0.15mn tonnes whereas the rolled flat production increased 15.0% yoy to 0.45mn

    tonnes due to shutdown of its hot strip mill for capacity expansion in last week of

    September. For 2QFY2013 the crude steel production grew by 25.0% yoy 2.1mn

    tonnes. The rolled long production increased by 29.0% yoy to 0.44mn tonnes

    whereas the rolled flat production increased by 12.0% yoy to 1.45mn tonnes. The

    companys crude steel production for 1HFY2013 grew 26.0% yoy to 4.31mn

    tonnes.

    Result Review

    Reliance Industries (CMP:`823 / TP: - / Upside :-)

    Reliance Industries (RIL) 2QFY2012 net sales were lower than our expectations

    while net profit was above our estimates on account of higher-than-expected other

    income. Net sales increased by 15.0% yoy to `90,335cr, below our estimate of

    `93,934cr. Net sales growth was mainly driven by Petrochemicals segment

    (+4.7% yoy to`22,058cr) and Refining segment (+23.1% yoy to`83,878cr). RILs

    EBITDA decreased by 21.7% yoy to `7,705cr on account of decrease in profits

    from Petrochemical segment where EBIT decreased 28.2% yoy to`1,740cr and Oil

    and Gas segment where EBIT decreased 43.4% yoy to`866cr during the quarter.

    Depreciation expense (including depletion and amortization) decreased by 23.3%

    yoy to `2,277cr mainly due to lower oil and gas production. Gross refining

    margins stood at US $9.5/bbl in 2QFY2013 compared to US$10.1/bbl in

    2QFY2012 and US$7.6/bbl in 1QFY2013. Production from KG-D6 stood at 93bcf

    compared to 147bcf in 2QFY2012. Other income increased 91.7% yoy to`2,112cr (higher than our estimate of `1,900cr) which resulted in net profit

    decreasing by only 5.7% yoy to`5,373cr, above our estimate of`5,013cr.

    RIL has lowered its capex estimate for developing areas in its KG D6 block by

    US$3bn on account of unexpected fall in reserves.

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    Market OutlookOctober 16, 2012

    FY2013E 362,700 7.9 18,251 61.5 10.3 13.3 1.3 8.6 0.7

    FY2014E 380,031 8.0 19,050 64.3 9.9 12.7 1.2 7.9 0.6

    Axis Bank (CMP:`1,119/ TP:`1,326/ Upside: 18.4%)

    In its 2QFY2013 results, Axis Bank reported a growth of 22.1% on the

    earnings front, which was in-line with estimates. The growth in net interest

    income was in-line with our expectation at 15.9% yoy to `2,327cr, while the

    growth in non-interest income came in unexpectedly strong at 29.0% yoy to

    `1,593cr. Operating profits grew by a healthy 22.7% yoy to `2,178cr. The

    bank reported a marginal increase of ~3bp in gross NPA ratio and net NPA

    ratio to 1.1% and 0.33%, respectively. However, provisioning expenses for the

    bank grew unexpectedly by 25.6% yoy to`509cr, which aided the banks PCR

    to improve by ~100bp to 80%.

    The stock is currently trading at attractive valuations of 1.5x FY2014E ABV

    more than 50% discount to HDFC Bank, despite similar earnings quality,

    profitability and growth expectations over FY2013-14.

    FY2013E 15,425 3.1 4,947 115.9 630.3 1.6 19.9 9.6 1.8

    FY2014E 18,500 3.2 5,871 137.5 736.4 1.6 20.1 8.0 1.5

    Result Preview

    Shree Cement (CMP:`4,080 / TP: - / Upside: -)

    Shree Cement is expected to declare its 1QFY2013 results today. The company is

    expected to post a top-line growth of 46.1% yoy to `1,249cr driven by strong

    performance of both cement and power businesses. The revenue of the cement

    business is expected to go up by 36.8% yoy to `1,160cr, both on account of

    volume growth and better realizations. The revenue of the power business too is

    expected to grow multi-fold to `89cr (vs `6.9cr in 1QFY2012) aided by higher

    capacity. The OPM is expected to grow by 431bp yoy to 27.8% aided by better

    cement realization. The bottom-line is expected to grow by 266.4% yoy to `145cr

    aided by strong operational performance.

    FY2013E 5,630 29.5 775 223 25.3 18.3 4.2 6.6 138

    FY2014E 6,187 27.9 903 259 23.8 15.7 3.4 5.6 -

    Note: * computed on TTM basis

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    Market OutlookOctober 16, 2012

    MindTree (CMP:`680 / TP:`772 / Upside: 13%)

    MindTree is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the

    company to post revenue of US$106.7mn, up 1.1% qoq. In rupee terms, the

    revenue is expected to come in at`587cr, up 4.2% qoq, aided by INR depreciation

    against USD. EBITDA margin is expected to expand by 19bp qoq to 21.0%. PAT isexpected to come in at `72cr, down by 18.6% qoq, due to hedging losses.

    FY2013E 2,334 19.5 290 70.4 23.3 9.7 2.2 4.8 0.9

    FY2014E 2,481 17.6 310 77.2 20.4 8.8 1.8 4.5 0.8

    Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

    Net sales 6,135 4,651 31.9 5,919 3.6

    EBITDA 1,218 795 53.2 1,301 (6.4)

    EBITDA margin (%) 19.8 17.1 22.0

    Net profit 785 497 57.8 854 (8.1)

    Net sales 2,576 2,283 13 2,919 (12)

    EBITDA 467 317 47 690 (32)

    EBITDA margin (%) 18.1 13.9 23.6

    Net profit 330 159 108 415 (20)

    Net sales 2,176 1,805 21 2,566 (15)

    EBITDA 532 319 67 735 (28)

    EBITDA margin (%) 24.4 17.7 28.6

    Net profit 337 171 97 469 (28)

    Net sales 2,750 2,593 6 2,713 1

    EBITDA 1,428 1,465 (3) 1,429 (0)

    EBITDA margin (%) 51.9 56.5 52.7

    Net profit 1,393 1,345 4 1,581 (12)

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    Market OutlookOctober 16, 2012

    Economic and Political News

    GoM may finalize land acquisition bill tomorrow Government allows free export of sugar in 2012-2013 Indirect tax collections grow 15.6% in Apr-Sep SC refuses to stay FDI policy in retail

    Corporate News

    GAIL Gas, Vadodara Gas JV to help expand city gas distribution network ICICI Bank signs MoU with Africa's Ecobank Mahindra Satyam inks pact with UPES ONGC eyes stake in Canada's Athabasca oil sands RIL looks to expand refining capacity

    Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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    Date Company

    October 16, 2012 Mindtree

    October 17, 2012 HCL Tech, CRISIL, Infotech Enterprises

    October 18, 2012 Hind. Zinc, Ambuja Cements, ACC, D B Corp, Persistent

    October 19, 2012 TCS, ITC, Mundra Port, Adani Power, Petronet LNG, Exide Industries, Zee Entertainment, South Ind.Bank, Blue Star,NIIT, Alembic Pharma, Tata Sponge

    October 20, 2012 Bajaj Auto, UltraTech Cement, Indian Bank, Federal Bank, J K Lakshmi Cements, Force Motors

    October 21, 2012

    October 22, 2012 HDFC, Larsen & Toubro, Cairn India, Idea Cellular, Bank of Baroda, Syndicate Bank, Indiabulls Fin.

    October 23, 2012 Hero Motocorp, Sterlite Inds, Lupin, Yes Bank, United Phosphorus, Bank of Maharashtra

    October 24, 2012

    October 25, 2012 Adani Enterp., M&M, Kotak Mah. Bank, Asian Paints, Ipca labs, Bajaj Electrical

    October 26, 2012 NTPC, ICICI Bank, GAIL, Punjab Natl.Bank, IDFC, Dabur India, United Bank, Hind. Const.

    October 27, 2012

    October 28, 2012 JSW Steel

    October 29, 2012 Colgate

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Result Calendar

    Global economic events release calendar

    Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

    Last Reported Estimated

    October 16, 2012 UK CPI (YoY) % Change Sep 2.50 2.20

    Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Sep 2.60 2.70

    US Industrial Production % Sep (1.16) 0.20

    US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Sep 0.60 0.50October 17, 2012 US Housing Starts Thousands Sep 750.00 770.00

    US Building permits Thousands Sep 801.00 810.00

    UK Jobless claims change % Change Sep (15.00) --

    October 18, 2012 US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Oct 13 339.00 365.00

    China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Sep 8.90 9.00

    China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q 7.60 7.40

    October 19, 2012 US Existing home sales Millions Sep 4.82 4.75

    October 23, 2012 Euro ZoneEuro-Zone ConsumerConfidence

    Value Oct A (25.90) --

    October 24, 2012 Germany PMI Services Value Oct A 49.70 --

    Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Oct A 47.40 --

    US New home sales Thousands Sep 373.00 381.00

    US FOMC rate decision % Oct 24 0.25 --

    October 25, 2012 UK GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q A (0.50) --

    October 26, 2012 US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 3Q A 1.30 1.80

    October 30, 2012 US Consumer ConfidenceS.A./

    1985=100Oct 70.30 --

    India RBI Repo rate % Oct 30 8.00 --

    India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Oct 30 4.50 --

    India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Oct 30 7.00 --

    October 31, 2012 Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Oct 9.00 --November 01, 2012 UK PMI Manufacturing Value Oct 48.40 --

    China PMI Manufacturing Value Oct 49.80 --

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    www.angelbroking.com

    October 16, 2012

    Market Outlook

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    Market StrategyOctober 16, 2012

    www.angelbroking.com

    Macro watch

    Exhibit1:

    3.5

    5.7

    9.0

    7.5

    8.5

    7.68.2

    9.2

    8.0

    6.76.1

    5.3 5.5

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    4QFY09

    1QFY10

    2QFY10

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    3QFY11

    4QFY11

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    4QFY12

    1QFY13

    (%)

    Source: CSO, Angel Research

    Exhibit2:

    2.5

    (5.0)

    6.0

    2.7

    1.0

    4.3

    (2.8)

    (1.3)

    2.5

    (1.8)

    (0.2)

    2.7

    (6.0)

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Ju

    l-12

    Aug-1

    2

    (%)

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit3:

    10.0 9.9 9.5

    7.76.9

    7.4 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.66.9

    7.6

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Ju

    l-12

    Aug-1

    2

    (%)

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit4:

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    60.0

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Ju

    l-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Mfg. PMI Services PMI

    Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

    Exhibit5:

    (30.0)

    (15.0)

    0.0

    15.0

    30.0

    45.0

    60.0

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Ju

    l-12

    Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Exhibit6:

    8.00

    7.00

    4.50

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Ju

    l-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Agri / Agri Chemical

    Rallis Neutral 145 - 2,824 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 20.7 17.9 4.4 3.8 22.6 22.5 2.0 1.7

    United Phosphorus Buy 126 170 5,804 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 8.4 7.4 1.2 1.1 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

    Auto & Auto Ancillary

    Amara Raja Batteries Neutral 220 - 3,760 2,844 3,275 15.4 15.6 15.9 18.8 13.9 11.7 3.6 2.8 28.9 26.9 1.2 1.1

    Apollo Tyres Accumulate 86 99 4,345 13,412 15,041 11.3 11.0 12.1 14.2 7.1 6.1 1.3 1.1 19.6 19.2 0.5 0.4

    Ashok Leyland Buy 24 30 6,306 14,920 16,850 9.0 9.3 2.2 2.8 10.9 8.6 2.0 1.8 13.3 15.6 0.5 0.5

    Automotive Axle# Neutral 388 - 586 993 1,140 11.6 11.5 36.9 43.0 10.5 9.0 2.1 1.8 21.2 21.3 0.7 0.5Bajaj Auto Neutral 1,751 - 50,658 21,285 23,927 18.2 18.3 108.5 121.3 16.1 14.4 6.7 5.4 46.1 41.3 2.1 1.8

    Bharat Forge Accumulate 295 351 6,878 7,004 7,985 16.2 16.4 20.3 25.1 14.5 11.8 2.7 2.3 20.0 20.9 1.2 1.0

    Bosch India* Neutral 8,731 - 27,413 8,793 10,294 17.4 18.5 348.3 435.8 25.1 20.0 4.9 4.0 19.4 20.1 2.8 2.3

    CEAT Buy 122 164 416 4,989 5,634 8.7 8.5 32.7 41.1 3.7 3.0 0.5 0.5 15.8 16.9 0.3 0.2

    Exide Industries Neutral 151 - 12,861 5,913 6,787 16.0 17.0 7.4 9.2 20.5 16.5 3.7 3.1 19.1 20.3 1.9 1.6

    FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,774 - 2,947 1,505 1,768 17.5 18.0 111.2 132.7 15.9 13.4 3.3 2.7 22.8 22.2 1.7 1.4

    Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,770 2,077 35,354 24,941 28,706 15.0 15.5 122.5 134.0 14.5 13.2 6.3 5.0 49.6 42.2 1.2 1.0

    JK Tyre Buy 112 135 458 7,517 8,329 6.1 6.3 26.2 38.5 4.3 2.9 0.5 0.5 13.4 17.2 0.3 0.3

    Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 857 944 52,643 37,434 42,860 11.6 11.5 50.4 56.3 17.0 15.2 3.6 3.0 22.6 21.5 1.2 1.0

    Maruti Neutral 1,338 - 38,662 41,796 49,350 7.6 8.6 66.6 92.6 20.1 14.5 2.3 2.0 12.0 14.8 0.7 0.6

    Motherson Sumi Neutral 155 - 9,083 24,285 27,317 6.7 7.2 8.1 10.6 19.2 14.6 4.0 3.3 22.9 24.7 0.5 0.5

    Subros Buy 31 34 184 1,230 1,378 8.8 8.6 4.5 5.7 6.8 5.4 0.7 0.6 9.8 11.8 0.4 0.3

    Tata Motors Buy 269 316 71,785 195,096 219,428 12.8 13.0 39.0 44.9 6.9 6.0 2.0 1.5 32.6 28.8 0.4 0.4

    TVS Motor Buy 42 49 1,983 7,611 8,443 7.9 7.9 4.7 5.4 8.9 7.7 1.5 1.3 17.9 18.1 0.2 0.2

    Capital Goods

    ABB* Sell 786 593 16,651 8,760 10,023 6.2 8.7 14.5 24.7 54.4 31.8 6.0 5.2 11.6 17.6 1.9 1.7BGR Energy Neutral 278 - 2,006 3,669 4,561 11.0 11.0 24.7 29.6 11.3 9.4 1.7 1.5 15.3 16.7 1.1 1.0

    BHEL Neutral 249 - 60,982 47,801 43,757 19.0 18.8 25.3 22.8 9.9 10.9 3.0 2.5 34.3 25.3 1.1 1.2

    Blue Star Neutral 211 - 1,895 3,047 3,328 5.4 6.9 12.5 16.2 16.9 13.0 4.1 3.3 26.1 28.2 0.6 0.5

    Crompton Greaves Accumulate 138 141 8,837 12,691 14,126 7.4 8.9 7.0 9.7 19.7 14.2 2.3 2.0 11.9 15.0 0.7 0.6

    Jyoti Structures Buy 47 54 384 2,622 2,744 10.7 10.5 9.6 12.2 4.9 3.8 0.5 0.5 10.8 12.3 0.4 0.3

    KEC International Accumulate 69 78 1,770 6,858 7,431 7.1 7.5 8.3 9.8 8.3 7.1 1.4 1.2 25.1 24.0 0.4 0.4

    LMW Neutral 1,981 - 2,231 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 13.8 11.9 2.3 2.1 17.4 18.4 0.5 0.4

    Thermax Neutral 566 - 6,740 5,514 5,559 8.9 10.2 26.9 30.3 21.1 18.7 3.6 3.2 18.4 18.2 1.1 1.0

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    October 16, 2012

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 16-10-12

    10/16

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Cement

    ACC Neutral 1,489 - 27,952 10,964 12,417 21.6 21.5 76.9 82.2 19.4 18.1 3.7 3.3 19.5 19.1 2.2 1.9

    Ambuja Cements Neutral 215 - 33,057 10,163 11,729 25.4 24.9 11.2 12.5 19.2 17.2 4.1 3.7 20.3 20.5 2.7 2.2

    India Cements Neutral 101 - 3,112 4,354 4,929 18.6 18.7 9.8 12.3 10.3 8.2 0.9 0.8 8.6 10.2 1.1 1.0

    J K Lakshmi Cements Neutral 118 - 1,443 1,964 2,278 19.5 20.4 16.3 17.9 7.2 6.6 1.1 0.9 14.7 14.6 0.9 1.2

    Madras Cements Neutral 188 - 4,471 3,608 3,928 27.6 27.0 15.7 18.3 11.9 10.3 1.9 1.6 16.9 17.0 1.9 1.6

    Shree Cements^ Neutral 4,080 - 14,214 5,630 6,187 29.6 27.9 222.5 259.3 18.3 15.7 4.2 3.4 25.3 23.8 1.9 1.5

    UltraTech Cement Neutral 2,041 - 55,955 20,913 23,530 21.3 22.7 93.2 1 10.5 21.9 18.5 3.7 3.2 18.4 18.7 2.5 2.3Construction

    Ashoka Buildcon Buy 229 304 1,206 2,034 2,315 22.4 22.4 27.1 31.7 8.5 7.2 1.0 0.9 13.1 13.4 1.8 2.1

    Consolidated Co Neutral 14 - 266 2,262 2,522 6.7 7.5 1.5 2.7 9.7 5.4 0.4 0.4 4.4 7.5 0.4 0.4

    Hind. Const. Neutral 18 - 1,113 4,239 4,522 9.9 11.2 (2.3) (1.0) (8.1) (19.0) 1.0 1.1 (11.4) (5.6) 1.2 1.2

    IRB Infra Accumulate 153 166 5,093 3,964 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.7 16.9 9.7 9.1 1.5 1.3 16.6 15.8 2.8 2.7

    ITNL Buy 190 232 3,688 6,840 7,767 26.4 26.1 24.4 30.3 7.8 6.3 1.2 1.0 16.0 16.2 2.7 2.9

    IVRCL Infra Accumulate 46 51 1,406 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 18.1 10.0 0.6 0.6 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.7

    Jaiprakash Asso. Accumulate 92 91 19,510 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.0 4.8 22.9 19.2 1.8 1.7 8.5 9.3 2.5 2.2

    Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,636 1,721 100,416 60,474 69,091 12.1 11.5 79.7 85.4 20.5 19.2 3.5 3.0 16.3 15.1 1.8 1.6

    Madhucon Proj Buy 35 56 262 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 7.6 7.6 0.4 0.4 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

    Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 50 - 1,294 5,804 6,513 8.0 8.6 3.0 3.5 16.6 14.4 0.5 0.5 3.2 3.6 0.6 0.7

    Patel Engg. Neutral 83 - 577 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 5.9 5.7 0.4 0.3 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.0

    Punj Lloyd Neutral 55 - 1,820 11,892 13,116 8.9 8.9 1.7 3.1 32.3 17.7 0.6 0.6 1.9 3.4 0.6 0.5

    Sadbhav Engg. Buy 145 182 2,181 2,506 3,147 10.3 10.7 7.5 10.4 19.3 13.9 2.4 2.1 13.5 16.0 1.0 0.9

    Simplex Infra Buy 218 265 1,079 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.4 29.4 9.3 7.4 0.8 0.8 9.2 10.6 0.5 0.5

    FinancialsAllahabad Bank Reduce 141 131 7,038 6,944 7,884 3.0 3.1 35.5 37.0 4.0 3.8 0.6 0.6 17.2 15.7 - -

    Andhra Bank Reduce 110 97 6,147 4,929 5,633 3.1 3.1 23.7 24.5 4.6 4.5 0.8 0.7 16.6 15.3 - -

    Axis Bank Buy 1,119 1,326 46,365 15,425 18,500 3.1 3.2 115.9 137.5 9.7 8.1 1.8 1.5 19.9 20.1 - -

    Bank of Baroda Neutral 780 - 30,531 15,473 18,142 2.6 2.6 115.3 139.4 6.8 5.6 1.0 0.9 16.2 17.2 - -

    Bank of India Accumulate 303 330 17,383 12,573 14,971 2.3 2.4 58.2 68.0 5.2 4.5 0.9 0.7 15.9 16.3 - -

    Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 50 - 2,927 3,442 3,802 3.1 3.2 8.9 11.4 5.6 4.3 0.7 0.6 13.5 15.5 - -

    Canara Bank Neutral 431 - 19,076 10,905 12,783 2.1 2.2 74.9 85.1 5.8 5.1 0.9 0.8 15.1 15.3 - -

    Central Bank Neutral 76 - 5,561 7,095 8,102 2.5 2.7 15.6 21.0 4.8 3.6 0.8 0.7 12.2 14.7 - -

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    October 16, 2012

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 16-10-12

    11/16

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Financials

    Corporation Bank Accumulate 411 447 6,093 4,886 5,669 2.1 2.2 101.3 101.8 4.1 4.0 0.7 0.6 17.0 15.1 - -

    Dena Bank Neutral 109 - 3,824 3,147 3,495 2.8 2.9 24.8 24.4 4.4 4.5 0.8 0.7 18.7 15.9 - -

    Federal Bank Neutral 472 - 8,062 2,593 3,009 3.2 3.2 44.9 52.5 10.5 9.0 1.3 1.2 12.8 13.5 - -

    HDFC Neutral 740 - 113,893 7,340 8,805 3.5 3.5 31.5 37.8 23.5 19.6 4.7 4.2 34.8 32.2 - -

    HDFC Bank Neutral 633 - 149,425 21,753 26,811 4.4 4.5 28.7 35.9 22.1 17.6 4.2 3.6 20.7 21.9 - -

    ICICI Bank Buy 1,053 1,245 121,059 22,304 26,855 2.9 3.0 68.6 82.0 15.4 12.8 1.9 1.7 14.2 15.6 - -

    IDBI Bank Neutral 100 - 12,803 7,761 9,484 1.9 2.2 17.1 22.9 5.9 4.4 0.7 0.6 11.9 14.4 - -Indian Bank Reduce 189 181 8,110 6,062 6,818 3.4 3.4 40.5 41.6 4.7 4.5 0.8 0.7 18.1 16.3 - -

    IOB Accumulate 80 87 6,344 7,343 8,391 2.5 2.5 16.0 21.3 5.0 3.7 0.6 0.5 11.3 13.6 - -

    J & K Bank Accumulate 1,158 1,021 5,615 2,600 2,850 3.6 3.5 192.3 188.0 6.0 6.2 1.2 1.0 21.0 17.7 - -

    LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 257 301 12,952 1,867 2,338 2.4 2.4 21.1 28.5 12.2 9.0 2.0 1.7 17.5 20.4 - -

    Oriental Bank Neutral 299 - 8,715 6,278 7,125 2.7 2.8 56.7 62.6 5.3 4.8 0.7 0.7 14.1 13.9 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Accumulate 820 941 27,816 19,934 22,705 3.3 3.3 147.8 166.2 5.6 4.9 1.0 0.8 17.7 17.3 - -

    South Ind.Bank Accumulate 23 25 3,132 1,535 1,760 2.9 2.8 3.5 3.9 6.6 6.0 1.1 1.0 19.5 17.1 - -

    St Bk of India Accumulate 2,264 2,353 151,945 63,806 73,435 3.5 3.6 225.7 258.4 10.0 8.8 1.7 1.4 17.7 17.8 - -

    Syndicate Bank Accumulate 120 117 7,244 6,722 7,719 2.9 3.0 24.3 27.2 5.0 4.4 0.8 0.7 17.0 16.8 - -

    UCO Bank Neutral 78 - 5,201 5,411 6,124 2.4 2.5 17.0 16.5 4.6 4.7 0.9 0.8 16.7 14.4 - -

    Union Bank Accumulate 204 226 11,250 9,924 11,647 2.8 2.9 38.6 46.3 5.3 4.4 0.9 0.7 15.4 16.3 - -

    United Bank Buy 67 78 2,415 3,572 4,041 2.8 2.9 17.2 22.1 3.9 3.0 0.6 0.5 14.2 16.2 - -

    Vijaya Bank Neutral 57 - 2,827 2,490 2,881 2.1 2.2 9.2 11.4 6.2 5.0 0.8 0.7 11.5 13.0 - -

    Yes Bank Buy 395 452 14,056 3,270 4,253 2.8 3.0 33.9 42.2 11.6 9.3 2.5 2.0 23.1 23.6 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 3,866 - 37,080 11,198 13,184 16.3 16.3 121.0 144.8 32.0 26.7 10.7 8.4 37.4 35.3 3.3 2.8Britannia Buy 490 584 5,857 5,835 6,824 5.7 6.0 20.7 25.4 23.7 19.3 9.3 7.2 43.1 41.9 0.9 0.7

    Colgate Neutral 1,238 - 16,833 3,018 3,429 20.9 22.2 35.7 42.3 34.7 29.2 32.0 23.8 101.0 93.5 5.3 4.6

    Dabur India Neutral 134 - 23,434 6,124 7,030 17.0 16.8 4.5 5.2 30.1 26.0 12.4 9.8 43.2 41.5 3.7 3.1

    GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,979 - 12,528 3,124 3,663 17.1 17.6 104.5 123.8 28.5 24.1 8.9 7.1 34.4 32.8 3.7 3.1

    Godrej Consumer Neutral 683 - 23,243 6,097 7,233 18.4 18.6 21.9 26.5 31.2 25.8 6.9 5.7 25.5 25.4 3.9 3.3

    HUL Neutral 578 - 124,937 25,350 28,974 13.9 13.9 14.3 16.5 40.5 35.1 24.1 18.6 70.9 59.8 4.4 3.8

    ITC Neutral 286 - 224,808 29,513 33,885 35.4 35.8 9.3 10.8 30.8 26.5 10.2 8.5 35.6 35.0 6.9 6.0

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    October 16, 2012

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 16-10-12

    12/16

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    FMCG

    Marico Neutral 203 - 13,088 4,840 5,643 13.1 13.1 6.8 8.5 29.9 24.0 8.3 6.3 31.4 29.7 2.7 2.2

    Nestle* Neutral 4,685 - 45,175 8,610 10,174 20.9 21.2 114.8 139.8 40.8 33.5 24.6 17.2 71.2 60.3 5.0 4.1

    Tata Global Neutral 160 - 9,894 7,207 7,927 9.7 10.0 6.6 7.8 24.2 20.5 2.5 2.4 8.6 9.5 1.1 1.0

    IT

    HCL Tech^ Accumulate 583 632 40,486 24,569 27,002 18.8 17.6 41.4 45.1 14.1 12.9 3.2 2.7 22.8 21.1 1.6 1.4

    Hexaware* Accumulate 114 140 3,387 1,966 2,161 22.5 21.4 11.6 12.2 9.9 9.4 2.6 2.2 26.8 23.9 1.5 1.3

    Infosys Accumulate 2,366 2,687 135,846 39,383 41,380 31.7 31.9 163.2 173.4 14.5 13.6 3.5 3.0 23.9 22.0 3.1 2.8Infotech Enterprises Neutral 198 - 2,205 1,895 2,049 18.0 17.5 18.1 19.5 10.9 10.1 1.6 1.4 14.5 13.7 0.8 0.6

    KPIT Cummins Buy 122 142 2,174 2,191 2,364 16.1 16.5 11.3 13.0 10.8 9.4 2.4 1.9 21.8 20.0 1.0 0.8

    Mahindra Satyam Neutral 108 - 12,687 7,628 8,062 19.9 18.4 9.7 10.0 11.1 10.8 3.1 2.4 27.7 22.2 1.3 1.1

    Mindtree Buy 680 772 2,784 2,334 2,481 19.5 17.6 70.4 77.2 9.7 8.8 2.2 1.8 23.3 20.4 0.9 0.8

    Mphasis& Neutral 396 - 8,318 5,700 5,993 18.0 16.9 37.0 37.3 10.7 10.6 1.5 1.3 14.3 12.6 1.0 0.9

    NIIT Accumulate 34 36 567 1,034 1,146 9.9 11.0 5.2 6.4 6.6 5.4 0.8 0.8 12.8 14.3 0.3 0.2

    Persistent Reduce 434 398 1,738 1,207 1,278 26.2 24.3 42.4 44.3 10.3 9.8 1.8 1.5 17.1 15.5 1.1 0.9

    TCS Accumulate 1,291 1,405 252,677 61,611 67,507 29.3 29.1 69.0 74.0 18.7 17.5 6.1 5.0 32.4 28.6 3.9 3.5

    Tech Mahindra Accumulate 943 1,046 12,032 6,603 7,196 18.2 17.1 92.7 99.6 10.2 9.5 2.4 1.9 23.6 20.5 1.9 1.7

    Wipro Accumulate 353 421 86,896 43,800 48,332 19.5 19.3 25.6 28.1 13.8 12.6 2.6 2.3 18.9 17.9 1.8 1.5

    Media

    D B Corp Buy 218 236 4,001 1,604 1,786 22.3 23.8 11.2 13.7 19.6 16.0 3.7 3.2 20.3 21.4 2.2 2.0

    HT Media Buy 95 113 2,235 2,111 2,263 14.7 14.8 7.3 8.1 13.0 11.7 1.4 1.3 11.3 11.2 0.7 0.6

    Jagran Prakashan Buy 95 112 3,011 1,488 1,664 22.7 22.8 6.2 7.1 15.3 13.4 3.7 3.3 25.2 26.3 2.1 1.8

    PVR Neutral 216 - 562 625 732 17.4 17.1 13.3 15.6 16.3 13.8 1.8 1.6 13.2 13.8 1.2 1.0

    Sun TV Network Neutral 365 - 14,366 1,981 2,239 77.0 76.7 18.6 21.3 19.6 17.1 4.9 4.3 27.1 27.5 6.4 5.5Metals & Mining

    Bhushan Steel Neutral 503 - 10,685 11,979 14,584 31.6 31.0 49.2 61.4 10.2 8.2 1.4 1.2 14.1 15.2 2.9 2.4

    Coal India Accumulate 357 385 225,336 69,808 75,550 27.4 27.4 26.0 28.3 13.7 12.6 4.0 3.2 32.5 28.1 2.3 2.0

    Electrosteel Castings Accumulate 23 23 791 1,984 2,074 11.2 12.6 2.5 2.9 9.2 8.0 0.4 0.2 5.1 5.7 0.5 0.5

    Hind. Zinc Accumulate 135 144 56,978 12,446 13,538 52.3 52.9 14.3 15.5 9.5 8.7 1.8 1.5 20.5 18.9 2.7 2.1

    Hindalco Neutral 120 - 22,965 84,855 92,446 8.7 9.3 13.2 16.2 9.1 7.4 0.7 0.6 7.8 8.9 0.7 0.6

    JSW Steel Neutral 766 - 17,097 38,740 41,459 17.3 17.0 79.9 89.4 9.6 8.6 1.0 0.9 10.4 10.6 0.9 0.8

    MOIL Accumulate 252 271 4,237 918 993 50.7 50.9 24.5 26.1 10.3 9.7 1.6 1.4 16.0 15.5 2.3 2.0

    Monnet Ispat Buy 294 379 1,890 2,511 3,303 23.8 26.0 46.3 57.3 6.4 5.1 0.7 0.6 12.4 13.7 1.7 1.2

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    October 16, 2012

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 16-10-12

    13/16

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Metals & Mining

    Nalco Reduce 49 48 12,744 7,401 7,841 16.7 19.2 3.4 4.1 14.5 12.1 1.0 1.0 7.4 8.4 1.3 1.2

    NMDC Accumulate 189 214 75,052 12,934 14,266 79.4 80.1 21.1 23.4 9.0 8.1 2.4 2.0 29.6 26.5 4.1 3.4

    SAIL Neutral 86 - 35,378 47,252 60,351 14.2 14.8 9.6 11.7 9.0 7.3 0.8 0.7 9.4 10.6 1.2 1.0

    Sesa Goa Neutral 172 - 14,936 7,704 8,034 33.6 34.6 42.0 43.1 4.1 4.0 0.8 0.7 22.3 19.2 2.2 2.1

    Sterlite Inds Neutral 102 - 34,211 41,680 45,382 24.2 23.2 16.3 16.9 6.3 6.0 0.7 0.6 11.3 10.7 0.8 0.7

    Tata Steel Buy 419 481 40,694 145,799 150,431 10.3 11.2 48.6 63.3 8.6 6.6 0.9 0.8 10.5 12.4 0.5 0.5

    Sarda Accumulate 132 148 474 1,251 1,321 22.7 23.4 33.0 37.1 4.0 3.6 0.6 0.5 15.1 14.8 0.8 0.7Prakash Industries Buy 53 73 718 2,694 2,906 14.6 16.6 16.4 20.8 3.3 2.6 0.3 0.3 11.4 12.8 0.5 0.4

    Godawari Power andIspat

    Buy 121 161 384 2,341 2,425 15.6 17.3 33.3 43.2 3.6 2.8 0.4 0.4 13.2 14.4 0.5 0.5

    Oil & Gas

    Cairn India Accumulate 330 380 63,016 16,605 17,258 75.4 71.7 57.0 54.9 5.8 6.0 1.1 0.9 20.2 16.3 2.8 2.2

    GAIL Neutral 380 - 48,247 50,176 55,815 15.5 15.8 35.4 36.5 10.8 10.4 1.9 1.7 18.9 17.0 0.7 0.5

    ONGC Accumulate 280 312 239,425 147,139 154,821 33.9 33.7 30.7 32.3 9.1 8.7 1.6 1.4 18.3 17.2 1.4 1.2

    Reliance Industries Neutral 823 - 269,561 362,700 380,031 7.9 8.0 61.5 64.3 13.4 12.8 1.3 1.2 10.3 9.9 0.7 0.7

    Gujarat Gas* Neutral 298 - 3,817 3,228 3,819 11.5 11.3 19.2 22.1 15.5 13.5 4.1 3.7 28.7 29.0 1.3 1.0

    Indraprastha Gas Neutral 260 - 3,639 3,040 3,135 24.3 26.7 24.8 27.9 10.5 9.3 2.4 2.0 25.5 23.6 1.3 1.1

    Petronet LNG Accumulate 164 176 12,285 29,145 33,736 6.6 6.6 14.2 16.0 11.5 10.2 2.8 2.3 26.9 24.4 0.4 0.4

    Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

    Neutral 81 - 4,549 1,041 939 91.8 91.9 8.5 7.4 9.5 10.9 1.6 1.5 18.1 14.0 5.2 5.8

    Pharmaceuticals

    Alembic Pharma Buy 70 91 1,314 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 10.6 7.7 2.6 2.0 27.9 29.9 1.0 0.8

    Aurobindo Pharma Accumulate 156 156 4,539 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 11.8 12.6 13.2 12.4 1.6 1.4 17.9 16.4 1.3 1.1

    Aventis* Neutral 2,205 - 5,079 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.1 104.4 23.2 21.1 4.1 3.2 18.6 17.0 3.5 3.0Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 849 953 17,387 6,148 7,386 18.6 19.6 36.0 46.1 23.6 18.4 5.6 4.5 25.8 26.8 3.1 2.6

    Cipla Neutral 369 - 29,636 8,031 9,130 23.4 22.4 18.4 20.0 20.1 18.5 3.3 2.9 17.8 16.6 3.6 3.1

    Dr Reddy's Accumulate 1,701 1,859 28,871 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 20.3 18.3 4.2 3.5 22.4 20.8 2.9 2.6

    Dishman Pharma Neutral 100 - 807 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 10.9 8.9 0.8 0.8 7.7 8.5 1.3 1.1

    GSK Pharma* Neutral 1,971 - 16,697 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 25.9 23.9 7.5 6.7 20.1 26.3 5.5 4.8

    Indoco Remedies Buy 70 92 641 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 9.4 7.8 1.4 1.2 16.4 17.0 1.1 0.9

    Ipca labs Neutral 457 - 5,768 2,850 3,474 20.7 20.7 29.2 36.6 15.7 12.5 3.7 2.9 26.1 26.1 2.3 1.9

    Lupin Accumulate 562 647 25,141 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 26.3 31.3 21.4 18.0 5.0 4.0 26.0 24.7 3.2 2.6

    Orchid Chemicals Neutral 113 - 799 1,667 1,835 13.9 13.9 11.4 13.3 9.9 8.5 0.6 0.6 6.6 7.3 0.9 0.8

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    October 16, 2012

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 16-10-12

    14/16

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Pharmaceuticals

    Ranbaxy* Neutral 546 - 23,056 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 31.3 29.8 17.4 18.3 5.9 4.8 39.1 28.9 1.9 1.8

    Sun Pharma Neutral 714 - 73,873 9,752 12,134 41.6 41.6 26.0 28.2 27.5 25.3 5.2 4.4 20.3 18.8 6.6 5.1

    Power

    CESC Neutral 322 - 4,017 5,218 5,644 24.2 23.8 44.6 47.6 7.2 6.8 0.8 0.7 11.0 10.6 1.6 1.6

    GIPCL Accumulate 70 77 1,059 1,557 1,573 29.3 28.7 10.8 11.0 6.5 6.4 0.7 0.6 10.8 10.2 1.2 1.0

    NTPC Neutral 168 - 138,565 74,111 85,789 22.7 23.1 12.1 13.7 13.9 12.2 1.7 1.5 12.6 13.2 2.5 2.3

    Real EstateAnant Raj Accumulate 82 78 2,429 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 9.8 6.5 0.6 0.6 6.3 8.9 4.5 3.4

    DLF Neutral 217 - 36,901 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 22.7 16.2 1.4 1.4 6.4 8.7 6.5 5.4

    HDIL Buy 107 115 4,475 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 4.7 4.0 0.4 0.4 8.8 9.4 3.5 2.7

    MLIFE Neutral 404 - 1,648 813 901 26.2 26.6 32.0 37.1 12.6 10.9 1.3 1.2 10.4 11.0 2.3 2.0

    Telecom

    Bharti Airtel Neutral 263 - 99,989 79,147 86,745 31.1 32.5 9.9 15.1 26.5 17.5 1.9 1.7 7.0 9.7 2.0 1.7

    Idea Cellular Neutral 81 - 26,785 22,582 24,684 26.4 26.9 3.3 4.7 24.3 17.1 1.9 1.7 7.8 9.9 1.7 1.5

    Rcom Neutral 62 - 12,776 20,650 20,935 32.3 33.0 4.2 5.8 14.6 10.8 0.3 0.3 2.3 3.1 2.3 2.1

    zOthers

    Abbott India Neutral 1,494 - 3,175 1,602 1,833 10.4 11.8 54.7 71.7 27.3 20.8 5.2 4.4 20.0 22.7 1.9 1.6

    Bajaj Electricals Buy 227 228 2,261 3,670 4,290 7.6 8.8 15.0 23.0 15.1 9.9 2.8 2.2 18.6 22.4 0.5 0.5

    Cera Sanitaryware Buy 380 388 480 396 470 16.7 16.6 31.0 35.0 12.3 10.9 2.8 2.3 24.8 23.0 1.1 1.0

    Cravatex Buy 470 682 122 289 340 5.2 5.9 41.0 57.0 11.5 8.3 2.9 2.2 25.2 26.5 0.5 0.4

    CRISIL Neutral 936 - 6,568 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 27.3 23.4 12.3 9.9 50.9 46.9 6.5 5.4

    Finolex Cables Buy 44 61 673 2,334 2,687 6.2 6.5 8.0 10.0 5.5 4.4 0.8 0.7 13.0 14.9 0.2 0.2

    Force Motors Buy 422 591 551 2,214 2,765 4.5 5.4 39.0 74.0 10.8 5.7 0.5 0.4 4.4 7.6 0.1 0.1Goodyear India Neutral 322 - 742 1,543 1,654 6.5 7.3 24.8 31.1 13.0 10.3 2.1 1.8 17.1 19.0 0.3 0.2

    Disa India Buy 2,960 3,353 447 176 203 22.7 22.6 182.5 209.6 16.2 14.1 8.4 6.6 51.8 47.1 2.2 1.8

    Greenply Industries Buy 242 309 583 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 8.2 5.5 1.3 1.1 16.8 21.0 0.5 0.4

    Hitachi Neutral 135 - 310 868 977 3.9 6.6 2.7 10.9 49.2 12.4 1.8 1.6 3.7 13.6 0.4 0.4

    Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,650 - 2,342 1,847 2,162 4.3 7.3 69.0 135.0 38.4 19.6 3.4 3.0 9.3 16.3 1.3 1.1

    Styrolution ABS India* Buy 650 744 1,143 1,056 1,081 8.1 10.6 34.0 47.0 19.1 13.8 2.7 2.3 14.7 17.5 1.1 1.0

    ITD Cementation Neutral 236 - 271 1,451 1,669 12.3 12.4 32.4 41.5 7.3 5.7 0.7 0.6 9.4 10.9 0.6 0.6

    Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 167 - 2,686 1,248 1,468 9.8 10.4 5.9 7.2 28.1 23.3 4.0 3.7 15.0 16.6 2.5 2.0

    MCX Accumulate 1,402 1,440 7,152 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 22.5 19.5 6.2 5.3 27.5 27.4 8.9 7.4

    MRF Buy 10,237 12,884 4,342 11,804 12,727 10.4 10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3 7.9 7.2 1.5 1.3 21.3 19.4 0.5 0.5

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    zOthers

    Page Industries Neutral 3,453 - 3,851 887 1,108 18.3 18.6 95.0 120.9 36.4 28.6 19.0 15.4 57.4 59.5 4.0 3.2

    Relaxo Footwears Accumulate 725 821 870 1,019 1,208 12.3 13.0 51.0 68.4 14.2 10.6 3.8 2.8 30.3 30.2 1.0 0.8

    Sintex Industries Buy 73 79 2,001 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 5.4 4.7 0.7 0.6 12.9 13.2 0.8 0.6

    Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 306 392 286 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 4.6 3.9 0.9 0.7 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4

    S. Kumars Nationwide Buy 19 24 559 7,134 7,985 19.7 19.4 12.2 14.1 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.2 11.3 11.5 0.6 0.6

    SpiceJet Buy 36 43 1,749 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 10.0 6.7 14.5 4.6 - - 0.4 0.4

    TAJ GVK Buy 74 108 463 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 9.4 8.1 1.2 1.1 13.9 14.4 1.8 1.5Tata Sponge Iron Buy 331 377 509 787 837 16.2 17.5 58.5 66.9 5.7 4.9 0.8 0.7 14.9 15.1 0.3 0.2

    TVS Srichakra Accumulate 312 335 239 1,476 1,643 7.0 8.2 32.6 55.9 9.6 5.6 1.5 1.3 16.8 24.8 0.4 0.3

    United Spirits Neutral 1,225 - 16,018 10,289 11,421 13.5 14.3 31.0 42.9 39.5 28.5 3.1 2.8 8.1 10.3 2.2 2.0

    Vesuvius India Neutral 364 - 739 560 611 16.1 17.0 24.7 28.8 14.8 12.7 2.2 1.9 15.8 16.2 1.1 1.0

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on October 15, 2012

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    Market OutlookOctober 16, 2012