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1
Market Outlook March 2018
Equity Markets
2
Key Events – February 2018
3
• India’s 3Q GDP rebounded to 7.2% as negative supply shocks on account of the demonetization and GST
seem to be fading away. Investment growth surged to double digits from 8.9% last quarter to 13% in 3Q in
line with what we have been seeing with some high frequency indicators.
• RBI kept its policy rates unchanged in line with street expectations however inflation forecasts were
pushed up and growth forecasts pared down – indicating likely difficult policy challenges going forward.
• Jan trade deficit widened to $16.3bn which is well above the recent average of $13.4bn – this was driven
by a strong acceleration in imports to $40.7bn (+26%) as well as a slowdown in exports to $24.4bn (+9%)
which was particularly pronounced in textiles and gems & jewellery.
• India’s cabinet approved a plan to allow private companies to bid for coal mines for commercial production,
a move that would help the country cut imports and boost local production.
• India replaced Germany to reclaim the third spot on the Hurun Global Rich List 2018 with 131
billionaires. India added 31 new billionaires over the last year while the combined wealth of the Indian
billionaires increased by 49% to $454 billion.
• Indian equities (-4.9%) gave up all the gains from the early part of the year in the month of Feb with the
heightened global volatility weighing on sentiment and FIIs turning large net sellers. The introduction of LTCG
in the budget and the unraveling of the massive ~$2bn scam involving PNB and heightened global volatility
were also viewed as a dampener by market participants.
4
Performance of Sensex and Nifty Indices
Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities
5
States ruled by the BJP in 2018BJP continues to spread its presence across the country
6
RBI maintains status quo
RBI keeps policy rates unchanged Liquidity remains comfortable for now – But can tighten in March???
RBI sees upward trajectory in inflation in 1HFY19… …and expects GVA growth to pick up from 6.6% in FY18 to 7.2% next year
Source: RBI
7
Corporate Governance Issues – Not limited to PNB aloneNeeds systematic overhaul
Source: CIBIL, RBI
8
GST collections remain weak
assumptions for FY19 are optimistic…
CGST assumptions for FY19 are optimistic
Source: CLSA, CGA, Ministry of Finance(budgeted documents)
Trends in GST collections
Monthly CGST collection run-rate
9
GST miss implies likely Govt tax revenue shortfall…
Government Tax Revenue Estimates
Source: CLSA, Ministry of Finance
The gov’t has ample potential to keep disinvesting through its existing listed companies.
More companies may also be added to this list
… Can it likely to be met through higher disinvestment?
Source: CLSA, Capitaline, Bloomberg
11
GDP growth at five quarter high - helped by capex (GFCF) pick-up
Source: MOSPI
GDP and GFCF Growth
12
MSCI Puts India on watch.. Our take on it
Source: Economic Times
Corporate Earnings Scorecard
encouraging performance so far (Excluding SBI)…
13 Source: Companies, Kotak Institutional Equities Estimates
Notes: (a) Kotak Mahindra Bank is not under KIE coverage. We have used consensus estimates
Comparison of 3QFY18 net income of BSE-30 stocks, actual versus expected
Market Performance
14
*As on 28 February 2018, Source: Axis Capital, Bloomberg
BSE Sectoral Indices
Strong Performance By Majority Sectors Over The Last 1 YearPharma & PSU lagging in returns
15
(5.4)(1.6)
(6.3)(8.6)
(0.4) (1.9) (1.3) (4.3) (5.3) (4.2)(8.6)
(3.1)
65.1
27.6 24.4
20.6 20.5 19.4 16.9
15.6 14.6
1.2
(1.5)(8.3)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Realty Metals CapitalGoods
Bankex IT Services FMCG Tech Auto Oil & Gas Power PSU Healthcare
(%)
1m return % 1 yr return %
*As on 28 February 2018, Source: Bloomberg
Performance Across Market Cap -Strong Performance Down the Capitalisation Curve
16
(4.9) (5.4)(3.1)
18.2 19.3
32.4
5.6
14.4 16.4
13.0
21.1 22.3
7.2
10.5 7.7
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Nifty Nifty Midcap S&P BSE Smallcap
1m returns 1y returns 3 yr CAGR 5 yr CAGR 10 yr CAGR
In p
erce
nt
Past Performance may or may not sustain in the future
Most Global Markets Had Strong Showing In The Last Year
17 * As on 28 February 2018, Source: Bloomberg. Performance data in local currency
(0.4)
3.6
4.2
5.1
9.5
9.6
10.9
12.8
13.6
15.4
16.1
18.2
20.2
20.3
22.5
28.0
29.9
(4.0)
(4.7)
(4.6)
(5.7)
(2.9)
(0.7)
(2.6)
0.3
(0.5)
(4.5)
(5.4)
(4.9)
(8.7)
(4.3)
(0.1)
0.5
(6.2)
(15) 0 15 30 45
UK (FTSE 100)
EURO (Euro Stoxx 50)
Swiss (SMI)
Germany (DAX)
France (CACS 40)
Malaysia (KLCI - FTSE)
Taiwan (TSWE)
Russia (MICEX)
Singapore (Straits)
Japan (Nikkei 225)
Korea (Kospi)
India (Nifty)
China (HSCEI)
US (Dow Jones)
Indonesia (JCI)
Brazil (IBOV)
HK (HSI)
1M 1Yr
Nifty performance across cycles
18 Source: Phillip Capital
Valuations
19
Power & IT at lower end of valuations, other sectors moving towards upper end of valuation zone
Source: Axis Capital, Bloomberg Note: * Since April-2005
Sensex sectoral long-term valuation snapshot: Forward PE*
Stock Picking Will Be Critical
*As on 28 February 201820
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Auto BFSI Engg FMCG IT Metals Oil Pharma Power Telecom Sensex
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Auto BFSI Engg FMCG IT Services Metals Oil & Gas Pharma Power Telecom Sensex
-1 SD +1 SD Current Max Min
Top Quartile
Current
Lower Quartile
Min
Max
P/E Multiple CY18/FY19 of Indices
Source: Internal Estimates , Bloomberg
* For India & Japan Fiscal year is FY19 while others it is CY18
Indian higher than most peers on Valuation
21
7.1
8.8
10.9
11.5
12.9
13.1
15.4
15.1
15.7
15.5
19.1
20.5
6 10 14 18 22
China (HSCEI)
Korea (Kospi)
HK (HSI)
Brazil (IBOV)
UK (FTSE 100)
Singapore (Straits)
Malaysia (KLCI - FTSE)
Thailand (SET)
Japan (Nikkei 225)
US (Dow Jones)
US (Nasdaq)
India (Sensex)
(x)
22
With Greater Power Comes Greater Responsibility
Source: CEIC, AMFI, IIFL Research. Note: Based on sum of ‘ELSS’, ‘Other ETF’, ‘Growth’ and 65%
Of ‘Balanced’ category collections. * CY17 flows based on period of Jan to Nov-17
MF Equity collections in CY17 were ~80% of collections in last decade
23
Trend In Equity And Derivatives Flows
Notes: A) DII- Domestic Institutional Investors (Includes Bank, DFIs, Insurance, New Pension Scheme and MF)B) FII data is till Feb 26, MF data is till Feb 23 and DII data is till Feb 27. , Source: Kotak Institutional Equities Research
Net Investments by FPIs, DIIs and MFs in the cash market (US$ mn) Net foreign flows in the derivatives market (US$ mn)
Flows to equities
Domestic Flows May Sustain Into Equity Funds In CY 18
• Low FD Return
• Uncertain real
estate
environment
24
• Mature investor
base
understanding
the benefits of
compounding
of equities as
asset class
• SIP as a tool to
counter
volatility
FY93-97 FY98-03 FY05-09 FY10-17 FY18-19e
Se
ns
ex
‘E
PS
’S
en
sex
P/E
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of expected future performance
Markets Consolidating As It Awaits Economy To Take Off
25
Key Variables & Their Impact On Equities
Key Variables Short -term
Medium -term
Remarks
Economy GST to impact near-term activity especially informal
segment
Corporate EarningsImproving operating leverage, falling interest costs and
improvement in working capital can accelerate
earnings, but a bit back-ended. Key is improvement in
capacity utilisation
FII FlowIndia stands out among global asset classes with
prospects of strong long term growth.
DII FlowFocus on improving financial savings of households
Supply of paperHigher disinvestment target and repair of leveraged
balance sheet to create supply in markets.
Policy/Reform Initiative
Election heavy year can dampen near term outlook for
meaningful reform
26
27
12-month forward Sensex P/B (x) India’s Market Cap to GDP (%)
12-month forward Sensex P/E (x)
Markets Above Fair Range
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Feb
-91
Feb
-92
Feb
-93
Feb
-94
Feb
-95
Feb
-96
Feb
-97
Feb
-98
Feb
-99
Feb
-00
Feb
-01
Feb
-02
Feb
-03
Feb
-04
Feb
-05
Feb
-06
Feb
-07
Feb
-08
Feb
-09
Feb
-10
Feb
-11
Feb
-12
Feb
-13
Feb
-14
Feb
-15
Feb
-16
Feb
-17
Feb
-18
Sensex P/B (x) - LHS
12000
15000
18000
21000
24000
27000
30000
33000
36000
39000
Feb
-15
Ma
r-15
Ap
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
De
c-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Ma
r-16
Ap
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
De
c-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Ma
r-17
Ap
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
De
c-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Cheap 8x - 10x
Attractive 10x - 13x
Fair 13x - 17x
Fair Value Plus 17x - 20x
Stretched 20x - 24x
While Valuations Not Cheap, Patience To Be Key As We Await Earnings To
Pick Up
28
Corporate earnings, especially of domestic oriented companies showing improving
trend
While equities may still be out-performing other
alternate asset classes, moderate return
expectations
Use intermittent volatility to
increase equity exposure
Risk 1 – Higher Oil PricesNifty & Crude Show an Inverse Relationship
29 Source: Bloomberg, Data as of 28th Feb 2018
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Mar-0
9
Jul-09
No
v-09
Mar-1
0
Jul-10
No
v-10
Mar-1
1
Jul-1
1
No
v-11
Mar-1
2
Jul-12
No
v-12
Mar-1
3
Jul-13
No
v-13
Mar-1
4
Jul-1
4
Oct-1
4
Feb-1
5
Jun
-15
Oct-1
5
Feb-1
6
Jun
-16
Oct-1
6
Feb-1
7
Jun
-17
Oct-1
7
Feb-1
8
Prices Normalised to 100
Nifty Prices Crude Prices
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
De
c-98
May-9
9
Oct-9
9
Mar-0
0
Au
g-00
Jan-0
1
Jun
-01
No
v-01
Ap
r-02
Sep
-02
Feb
-03
Jul-0
3
De
c-03
May-0
4
Oct-0
4
Mar-0
5
Au
g-05
Jan-0
6
Jun
-06
No
v-06
Ap
r-07
Sep
-07
Feb
-08
Jul-0
8
De
c-08
May-0
9
Oct-0
9
Mar-1
0
Au
g-10
Jan-1
1
Jun
-11
No
v-11
Ap
r-12
Sep
-12
Feb
-13
Jul-1
3
De
c-13
May-1
4
Oct-1
4
Mar-1
5
Au
g-15
Jan-1
6
Jun
-16
No
v-16
Ap
r-17
Sep
-17
Feb
-18
Gilt 10 Yr (LHS) Nifty 50 (RHS)
Risk 2 : Interest Rates too are on UpswingWhile Nifty is Testing New Peaks
30 Source: Bloomberg, Data as of 28th Feb 2018
Risk 3 – Rise in equity issuance impacting market liquidity
31
A POTENTIAL RISE IN EQUITY ISSUANCE MIGHT IMPACT MARKET LIQUIDITY
But low returns in traditional avenues and increasing awareness
continues to drive money to capital markets
Source: Bloomberg, CLSA
Risk 4 – Delay in NPL resolution
32
NPL RATIOS YET TO COME DOWN AND RESOLUTION MAY GET DELAYED
Bank recap details & roadmap would give further clarity
Source: RBI, CLSA
33
Risk 5 – US Fed Rate Hike & Other Geo Political Risks
India has been relatively resilient to US rate hikes & geo political risks in the past
Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas
34
Risk 6: IndAS Introduction May be a Risk
Source: Banks, CLSA
Key Recommendations
Key theme Remarks
Large Cap – play on buying sectoral leaders that
benefit from improving investment climateKotak 50
Balance of IQ and EQ Kotak Classic Equity
Diversified/Multicap – focus on sectors that are
likely to benefit the most across market cap
Kotak Select Focus /
Kotak Opportunities Fund
Infrastructure revival – “True-to-label” fund – recent
thrust of government to revive the infrastructure
theme
Kotak Infrastructure & Economic
Reforms Fund
Through SIP in Midcap oriented scheme Kotak Emerging Equities Fund
ELSS – Equity allocation with ability to reduce tax
outgoKotak Tax Saver Fund
Balanced – benefit from debt and equity allocation Kotak Balanced Fund
We recommend investors to invest through SIP with a 5 years horizon.
35
Strategy For Investments In The Current Scenario
36
1- Kumbhkaran
(Invest & forget)
Or
2- Asset Allocation
Lumpsum Lumpsum Leverage
STP/ Lumpsum SIPPartial Profit
Booking
STPPartial Profit
BookingTake Profit
Home
OverweightNeutralUnderweight
Below Fair Value
Fair Value
Above Fair ValueMar
ket
Val
uat
ion
Investor Stance
DEBT MARKETS
37
How February 2018 Unfolded
• GDP:
– India regained its status as the world's fastest-growing major economy in the Oct-Dec quarter ie 7.2%,
surpassing China for the first time in a year as government spending, manufacturing and services all
picked up.
• RBI keeps Repo rate and Reverse repo rate unchanged at 6% and 5.75% respectively in its latest monetary
policy
• Inflation :
• CPI inflation for January eased to 5.07 %, compared to a 17-month high of 5.21 % in December.
• The WPI for the month of Jan was recorded at 2.84%; easing further on lower food prices as compared to
3.58% in the previous month
• Trade Data :
– Merchandise exports increased 9.1 % to $24.38 billion in January compared to a year ago,
– Imports surged 26 % to $40.68 billion.
– Trade deficit jumped 64.6 % to $16.30 billion in January.
• India's manufacturing sector growth eased slightly in February to 52.1 from 52.4 in January indicating a
factory output and new business orders rose at a slower pace.
38
• The interest rates on provident funds declared by EPFO for FY 2018 was pegged at 8.55%
• The Indian service sector remained in expansion mode in Jan, registering the fastest rise in
activity in three months. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei Services Business Activity Index improved to
51.7 in Jan, up from 50.9 in Dec
• India’s cabinet approved a plan to allow private companies to bid for coal mines for commercial
production, a move that would help the country cut imports and boost local production.
39
How February 2018 Unfolded
10 year Gilt Yield For the Month of February
40
7.726
7.4
7.45
7.5
7.55
7.6
7.65
7.7
7.75
7.8
1-F
eb
2-F
eb
3-F
eb
4-F
eb
5-F
eb
6-F
eb
7-F
eb
8-F
eb
9-F
eb
10
-Feb
11
-Feb
12
-Feb
13
-Feb
14
-Feb
15
-Feb
16
-Feb
17
-Feb
18
-Feb
19
-Feb
20
-Feb
21
-Feb
22
-Feb
23
-Feb
24
-Feb
25
-Feb
26
-Feb
27
-Feb
28
-Feb
per
cen
t
India 10 Year Yield
Volatility in the gilt segment remained high during the Feb month
Source: Bloomberg
41
FII Debt Flows
Spike in yields is being used by the FII to buy bonds. FII are net buyers for CY2018
(4.0)
(3.0)
(2.0)
(1.0)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-1
4Ju
l-1
4A
ug-
14
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4D
ec-1
4Ja
n-1
5Fe
b-1
5M
ar-1
5A
pr-
15
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5Se
p-1
5O
ct-1
5N
ov-
15
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6M
ay-1
6Ju
n-1
6Ju
l-1
6A
ug-
16
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6D
ec-1
6Ja
n-1
7Fe
b-1
7M
ar-1
7A
pr-
17
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7Se
p-1
7O
ct-1
7N
ov-
17
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
FII Net Investment- Debt (USD bn)
Source:Bloomberg
Positive Real Interest Rates to Stimulate Financial Savings
42
• Earlier, negative real rates fueled inflation in physical assets as people chased assets such
as real estate and gold till 2014.
• With real rates in the positive territory now, money may move from physical to financial
assets.
Note: Monthly 10 year Gilt Yield taken as average of their respective month. Feb 2018 CPI is assumed to be same as Jan-18 and Real Interest rate is calculated . Source: Bloomberg
2.53
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Feb
-12
May
-12
Au
g-1
2
No
v-1
2
Feb
-13
May
-13
Au
g-1
3
No
v-1
3
Feb
-14
May
-14
Au
g-1
4
No
v-1
4
Feb
-15
May
-15
Au
g-1
5
No
v-1
5
Feb
-16
May
-16
Au
g-1
6
No
v-1
6
Feb
-17
May
-17
Au
g-1
7
No
v-1
7
Feb
-18
Real Interest Rate (%)
CPI Inflation: 2nd half 2018 average inflation – slightly higher than RBI Band
Source: MOSPI
• The CPI inflation eased marginally to 5.1% in January 2018 (+3.2% in Jan 2017) from the 17-month high
5.2% in Dec 2017 (+3.4% in Dec 2016), in line with the MPC's forecast of 5.1% for Q4 FY2018.
• The core-CPI inflation remained unchanged at a high 5.1% in January 2018, in line with the print in Dec
2017. Notably, the core-CPI inflation was in line with the headline CPI inflation in January 2018.
43
5.07
5.1
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-
15
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-
16
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
CPI Core CPI
Crude Prices Range Bound
Data as on 28th Feb 2018, Source : Bloomberg
• Crude Oil prices eases to $65.78 from $69.05 in the previous month. This was due to increase in
U.S. crude stockpiles that was larger than expected.
44
65.78
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Brent Crude (USD)
Inflation to Drop Back Below RBI’s 4% Medium-Term Target
45
*CPI projections include impact of higher housing rent allowance for central government employees
Source : Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Bloomberg Economics
Inflation could drop to 4% to March 2019 on base effect wearing out , stable food prices
and assuming normal monsoon and crude prices to remain range bound
45
Credit growth has picked up by 8-10% as compared to last year.
Credit Growth slowly picking up
Source: Bloomberg, Data as on 28th Feb 201846
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
6400000
6600000
6800000
7000000
7200000
7400000
7600000
7800000
8000000
8200000
8400000
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Credit Growth (Weekly Data)
Current Credit/ Deposit Ratio is ~74.39% (RHS)
Commercial Credit by Banks = Rs 82.53 lakh Crore (LHS)
$ 421.72 Billion
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
India Forex Reserves (USD)
India Foreign Exchange Reserves – Stability Is Key
• India continues to attract capital flow resulting in healthy foreign exchange reserves.
• Indian foreign exchange reserves have grown by $ 10.60 billion in Feb month, indicating rising
foreign investor interest, and stronger rupee.
Source: Bloomberg47
Data as on 28th Feb 2018
48
Rupee Has Strengthened
Source: CEIC, Citi Research
REER appreciation leads to high intervention in H2CY17
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Repo Rate in the last 1 year
Repo Rate (%) Overnight Rate (MIBOR %)
RBI has managed to keep overnight rate close to the repo rate.
Source:Bloomberg
Date Repo Reverse Repo MSF SLFTotal Systemic
Liquidity
Government
Balances
28th Feb 2018 -865.75 541.6 -0.4 -12.22 -336.77 829.9
Amount in Rs. billion.
Active Liquidity Management
As of 28th Feb 2018
49
50
Spreads Between 10 Year & Repo Widening
Source: Bloomberg, Citi Research
10 year bond yield spread over repo similar to the 2013 rate hike cycle
Yield Curve (M-o-M Analysis)
• During last month the yield rose sharply in the 4-7 segment; and 16 year and above bucket was similar
• The yield spike in 7-13 year bond was less then 5 and greater than 15 year bucket.
• Over last few months the spread between 10 year and 30 year gilt has compressed from 40 bps to 10 bps
Source: Bloomberg
51
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 12Y 13Y 16Y 17Y 27Y 28Y 40Y
INR India Sovereign Curve Last Mid YTM INR India Sovereign Curve 02/01/18 Mid YTM
-10
10
30
3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 12Y 13Y 16Y 17Y 27Y 28Y 40Y
YTM (M-o-M Change)
India-US 10 Year Gilt- Spreads provide adequate safety
52
The spreads have widened over last 1 month. However we expect the spreads
would compress in medium term due to narrowing inflation differentials
India-US 10 Year & CPI Spreads
Narrowing CPI spread makes Indian bonds attractive. Therefore Indian bonds are
increasingly attractive for FIIs
53 Note: 10 year Gilt Yield taken as average of their respective month . Data as of Feb 2018 (Feb18 CPI is assumed to be same as Jan 2018 . Source: Bloomberg
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Ap
r-1
2
Jun
-12
Au
g-1
2
Oct
-12
Dec
-12
Feb
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct
-13
Dec
-13
Feb
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jun
-14
Au
g-1
4
Oct
-14
Dec
-14
Feb
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jun
-15
Au
g-1
5
Oct
-15
Dec
-15
Feb
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct
-16
Dec
-16
Feb
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jun
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
Dec
-17
Feb
-18
India-US CPI Spread India-US Gilt Spread
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18
10 Years Gilt of Select Countries
Global Bond Yields Remain Volatile
54 Data as of 28th Feb 2018. Source: Bloomberg
Rising crude oil prices (resulting in higher headline inflation) and better growth projections for 2019 (rate hike/ withdrawal of stimulus) led to rise in global bonds yields during last months
UK 10 Year
Germany 10 Year
Japan 10 Year
US 10 Year
PNB Bonds- Excessive fear Prevails
• Fear : The scam may lead to a loss of approximately Rs 13,000 cr
• Fact : PNB has revenue reserves of Rs 27,000 cr
• PNB may amortize the loss over the course of next 1 year. Capital infusion in FY18 and FY19 will ensure
that PNB will continue to stay above the min cap requirements at all point of time
• However this has led to a rating downgrade
• PNB bonds yield have touched 10% mark in the books, which is discounting multiple rating downgrades
• Till date even the weakest banks have not seen any coupon skip or equity conversion
• Banks like Bank o Maharashtra and Oriental Bank of Commerce have called their AT1 bonds prior to
schedule showing the government commitment
• We believe that most banks Under PCA would end up calling their AT1 from market
• Total outstanding of AT1 by banks under PCA is approx. Rs 20,000 cr; assuming 50% will get called; this
will lead to demand for high yielding bonds of relatively strong banks such as PNB
• There is no additional supply of PNB or any other AT 1 in the market. Therefore demand is definitely
more than the supply
55
Key Variables & their Impact On Interest Rates in 2018
Key Variables Short - term (3-6 month)
Medium – term (6month – 2 years)
Inflation
Rupee
Credit Demand
Government Borrowing
RBI Policy
Global Event Risk
Corporate bond Spread
Debt FII flow
Liquidity
denotes fall in interest rates
56
Debt Outlook
Longer End
There was high volatility in 10 year gilt which closed the Feb-18 at 7.72%
Yield curve has moved up on account of:
o Absence of demand from the investors/ PSU banks
o Crude Prices/ UST yields moving up: resulting in higher inflation/ FII outflow
There would be volatility in gilt given the uncertainty on future inflation reading, crude prices, fiscal deficit target
for next year, MSP policy adopted by government in 2018 and its resultant impact on food inflation
However, inspite of uncertainty most of the negative have been priced at 7.73% on the benchmark
We expect some demand side measures from the RBI / Govt to manage the government borrowing
programme. Absence of any measures may lead to sharp spike in yields which cannot be predicted
Such spike can be captured by the investors through SIP in actively managed funds
As there has been a significant drop in trading volumes yield range has widened a lot
We will wait for triggers which will lead to compulsive demand for bonds to add duration
The old benchmark is trading around 8.10% on annualized basis which is very close Bank MCLR and is
almost 210 bps over the repo rate.
High spread levels offer attractive yield levels to long term investors seeking to avoid NAV volatility.
We believe actively managed duration funds are attractive investments from a 3 yr investment horizon
57
Debt Outlook
Shorter End
We have seen spike in short term rates up to 3 years due to reduction in liquidity, increase in CD issuance
from banks, and likelihood of rate cut getting ruled out.
There has been a spike of 30-60 bps in yields in instruments crossing March-2018
We believe that from here till March, short term curve would move up by 10-15 bps on account Jan-March
2018 quarter; and expect the same to reverse post March 2018
We believe the yield curve up to 2 years is too steep and pricing in minimum 50 bps rate hike by RBI over
the course of next 1 year
We believe there is strong case for short term investors to take advantage of the steep yield curve by
investing in ultra short term fund and short duration funds
58
Key Recommendations
Segment Scheme Rationale
Accrual
PlayKotak Income Opportunities Fund / Kotak Medium
Term Fund
Investment for
higher accrual
Asset Allocation Kotak Monthly Income PlanInvestment for
asset allocation
Short Term
Parking of
Funds
Kotak Treasury Advantage Fund / Kotak Low Duration
Fund / Kotak Corporate Debt Fund
Kotak Equity Arbitrage FundHigher post tax
return
Duration Play
Kotak Mahindra Bond Scheme Investment for
longer maturities
Kotak Bond Short Term/ Kotak Flexi Debt Scheme
Investment for
shorter
maturities
59
Why Accrual Funds ?
• India is one of the fastest growing economy in the world and this will translate into revenue and
profitability for India Inc. Commodity & oil price decline has reduced input cost and increased
margin support
• Kotak AMC has strong fundamental processes in place to manage and mitigate credit risk
• Kotak AMC does not invest below A category rating. Our robust monitoring ensures that we do not
take exposure even in AA & A ratings from sensitive sectors
• AAA rate firms have never ever defaulted. The risk of default of AA is only 0.03% and of A is only
0.63%. Not Just that, the AAA continue to hold their rating 97% of times, AA around 92% of times,
and A around 88% of times
• With efficiently managed credit risk, yields on accrual funds are attractive even on risk-
adjusted basis.
Ratings CRISIL AAA CRISIL AA CRISIL A CRISIL BBB CRISIL BB CRISIL B CRISIL C CRISIL D
CRISIL AAA 97.28% 2.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
CRISIL AA 1.41% 92.26% 4.78% 0.58% 0.19% 0.03% 0.02% 0.03%
CRISIL A 0.00% 3.31% 87.79% 5.95% 1.88% 0.15% 0.30% 0.63%
One year average transition rates : between 1988 and 2014
60
Story in Accruals
• The Fund Manager focuses on generating income from credit allocation rather than duration calls.
• Accruals funds generate performance by purchasing high yielding assets with relatively short
duration.
• This provides investor with a relatively high yield with low NAV volatility
• Investors with 18-36 months horizon can look at investing in Accrual Funds
• Accrual funds like Kotak Income Opportunities / Kotak Medium term provide retail investors the
potential to obtain high yields in the present condition.
61
Need to Watch Out for Opportunities
in Hybrid Space
62
Particulars Nifty Level Net Assets in Rs Debt Equity
Start in Kotak MIP with ~ 20% equity exposure 10000 10 8.5 1.5
Equity markets drop by 15% (represented by Nifty 50) 8500 9.78 8.50 1.28
Shift to Kotak Equity Savings Fund which has ~ 25% unhedged
equity 8500 9.78 8.31 1.47
Equity markets drop by 15% (represented by Nifty 50) 7225 9.56 8.31 1.25
Shift to Kotak Balance with ~65% equity 7225 9.56 3.34 6.21
Equity markets drop by 15% (represented by Nifty 50) 6141 8.62 3.34 5.28
Shift to Equity fund with ~100% equity such as Kotak Select Focus 6141 8.62 0 8.62
Equity markets go up by 20% (represented by Nifty 50) 7370 10.35
Shift Back to Kotak MIP with ~20% equity exposure 7370 10 7.93 2.07
Why Kotak Monthly Income Plan- Growing Through Asset Allocation
The above illustration is only to explain how various types of funds can be considered for asset allocation in various equity market scenarios. This should not be
construed as an advice and indication of performance of the mentioned funds. The level of equity allocations mentioned are as per current scenario and only an
approximation. The exact allocation to equity in various funds would be different and as per the asset allocation provided in the SID of each fund.
63
Tactical Asset Allocation Through MIP
Kotak Monthly Income Plan can be used as a de-risking strategy
o The scheme invests upto 20% in equity & equity related instruments & rest in
debt instruments
o Thus, an investor could consider Kotak MIP as a starting point for a moderate
exposure to equity and use it as de-risking strategy by shifting into funds with
higher equity allocations as valuations become attractive
o The same has been explained below with an illustration
Whom is the Fund Ideal for?
Investors seeking regular income over short term
Investors seeking income through fixed income securities and marginal gains
from equities
Investors with 1-3 year investment horizon
Those who are unwilling to assume the full equity risk
Those who have low appetite for credit risk
64
Kotak MIP Performance*
Consistency In Growth
65
Past performance may or may not sustain in the future
* Less than 1 year Simple Annualized returns, Greater than or Equal to 1 year Compound Annualized returns. . Performance
as of 31st January 2018
8.55
10.15
8.57
9.72
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
3 Years 5 Years
Kotak Monthly Income Plan Performance (%)
Kotak Monthly Income Plan - Reg - Growth CRISIL Hybrid 85+15 - Conservative Index
The existing benchmark CRISIL MIP Blended has been renamed as CRISIL Hybrid 85+15 - Conservative Index as per communication received from CRISIL.
TRI - Total Return Index, In terms of SEBI circular dated January 4, 2018, the performance of the scheme is benchmarked to the Total Return variant (TRI) of the Benchmark Index
instead of Price Return Variant (PRI). The debt component of the index is TRI since inception. For equity component of the index, as TRI data is not available since inception of the
scheme, benchmark performance is calculated using composite CAGR of S&P BSE 200 PRI values series is used till 31st July 2006 and TRI values is used since 1st Aug
Have You Noticed The Regular Dividends In Kotak Balance ?
* After payment of the
dividend, the per Unit
NAV falls to the extent of
the payout and statutory
levy (if applicable)
^Past performance may
or may not be sustained
in the future. Dividends
are subject to
distributable surplus
Inception Date:
November 25, 1999
All dividends are on face
value of Rs.10 per unit
66
Record Date Rupees Per Unit Dividend Yield
26-Feb-18 0.14 0.83%
26-Jan-18 0.145 0.83%
26-Dec-17 0.14 0.82%
27-Nov-17 0.14 0.82%
25-Oct-17 0.11 0.66%
28-Sept-17 0.11 0.65%
28-Aug-17 0.11 0.67%
25-July-17 0.12 0.70%
27-June-17 0.11 0.65%
25-May-17 0.11 0.65%
25-Apr- 17 0.11 0.66%
27-Mar- 17 0.11 0.67%
27-Feb-17 0.11 0.69%
25-Jan-17 0.11 0.69%
26-Dec-16 0.11 0.69%
01-Dec-16 0.11 0.69%
26-Oct-16 0.08 0.49%
27-Sep-16 0.08 0.49%
25- Aug-16 0.08 0.50%
25-Jul-16 0.08 0.50%
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69
Performance (%) as on 31st January, 2018
Scheme Inception date is 25/11/1999. Mr. Abhishek Bisen has been managing the fund since 15/04/2008. Mr. Pankaj Tibrewal has been managing the fund since 25/08/2015.
Different plans have different expense structure. The performance details provided herein are of regular plan. ^Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.*All payouts during the
period have been reinvested in the units of the scheme at the then prevailing NAV. Returns > = 1 year: CAGR (Compounded Annualised Growth Rate). N.A stands for data not available. Note:
Point to Point (PTP) Returns in INR shows the value of 10,000/- investment made at inception. Source: ICRA MFI Explorer. # Name of Scheme Benchmark. ## Name of Additional
Benchmark.Please refer slide 76 for top 3 and bottom 3 schemes managed by & Mr. Abhishek Bisen.`
Scheme Inception date is 02/12/2003. Mr. Abhishek Bisen has been managing the fund since 01/04/2008. Mr. Devender Singhal has been managing the fund since 25/08/2015
Performance (%) as on 31st January, 2018 Source: ICRA
70
Other Funds Managed by Mr. Pankaj Tiberwal and Abhishek Bisen
Mr. Pankaj Tibrewal manages 3 funds of Kotak Mutual fund.
Kotak Emerging Equity - Growth, *Name of the Benchmark - S&P BSE MidSmallCap, Scheme Inception date is 30/03/2007. Mr. Pankaj Tibrewal has been
managing the fund since 27/05/2010.
Kotak Midcap - Growth, *Name of the Benchmark - Nifty Free Float Midcap 100, Scheme Inception date is 24/02/2005. Mr. Pankaj Tibrewal has been
managing the fund since 21/01/2010. Different plans have different expense structure. The performance details provided herein are of regular plan
^Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.*All payouts during the period have been reinvested in the units of the scheme at the then
prevailing NAV. Returns > = 1 year: CAGR (Compounded Annualised Growth Rate). N.A stands for data not available. Source: ICRA MFI Explorer.
Top 3 Funds Managed by Mr. Abhishek Bisen
Bottom 3 Funds Managed by Mr. Abhishek Bisen
Performance (%) as on 31st January, 2018 Source: ICRA
Why Kotak Mutual Fund Is Different From Others
71
We are Managing Your Trust First and Money second
We are your Partner
Disciplined Process
Risk adjusted Return
Believer in Warren Buffets Philosophy
Funds are like Kids. Don’t have more than what we
can manage
Readily accessible for Knowledge and Service
72
IIFL - Chartbook - Economic Survey - 20180131.pdf
http://www.nayidisha.com/12-reasons-lok-sabha-elections-happen-next-100-days/
12 Reasons why Lok Sabha Elections Can Happen in the next 100 days
These links are from different sources and for reference only. Kotak Mutual Fund does not necessarily subscribe to a similar view
Interesting Insights For The Curious Minds
The information contained in this (document) is extracted from different public sources. All reasonable care
has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not misleading or untrue at the time of
publication. This is for the information of the person to whom it is provided without any liability whatsoever
on the part of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Co Ltd or any associated companies or any employee
thereof.We are not soliciting any action based on this material and is for general information only.
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Disclaimers & Risk Factors
About the scheme:
73
Name of the Scheme This product is suitable for investors who are seeking* Riskometer
Kotak Mahindra 50 Unit Scheme• long term capital growth• Investment in portfolio of predominantly equity & equity related
securities
Kotak Select Focus Fund • long term capital growth• Investment in portfolio of predominantly equity & equity related
securities generally focused on a few selected sectors
Kotak Emerging Equity Scheme• long term capital growth• Investment in equity & equity related securities predominantly in
mid & small cap companies.
Kotak Balance Fund
• Long term capital growth• Investment in equity & equity related securities balanced with
income generation by investing in debt & money market instruments
Kotak Opportunities• long term capital growth• Investment in portfolio of predominantly equity & equity related
securities
Kotak Gilt Investment• income over a long investment horizon• Investments in sovereign securities issued by the Central and/or
State Government(s) and / or reverse repos in such securities.
Kotak Bond• income over a long investment horizon
investment in debt & money market securities
Kotak Medium Term Fund
• Income over a medium term investment horizon• Investment in debt, government securities & money market
instruments with a portfolio weighted average maturitybetween 3-7 years
Kotak Low Duration Fund (Formerly known as PineBridgeIndia Short Term Fund)
• Regular Income over short term
• Income by focusing on low duration securities
* Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Product Labeling
74
Name of the Scheme This product is suitable for investors who are seeking* Riskometer
Kotak Equity Arbitrage Scheme• income from arbitrage opportunities in the equity market• investment in arbitrage opportunities in the cash & derivatives
segment of the equity market.
Kotak Income Opportunities Fund
• Income over a medium term investment horizon• Investment in debt & money market securities
Kotak Treasury Advantage Scheme
• Income over a short term investment horizon• investment in debt & money market securities
Kotak Infrastructure & Economic Reform Fund
(formerly known as “PineBridge Infrastructure & Economic Reform Fund”)
• long term capital growth• long term capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity
related instruments of companies contributing to infrastructure and economic development of India
Kotak Tax saver Fund • Long term capital growth with a 3 year lock in• Investment in portfolio of predominantly equity & equity related
securities
* Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Product Labeling
75
76
Name of the Scheme This product is suitable for investors who are seeking* Riskometer
Kotak Equity Savings Fund
• Income from arbitrage opportunities in the equity market & long term capital growth
• Investment predominantly in arbitrage opportunities in the cash & derivatives segment of the equity market and equity & equity related securities
Kotak Banking andPSU Debt Fund
• income over a short to medium term investment horizon• •Investment in debt & money market securities of PSUs, Banks &
government securities
Product Labeling