Market Review : Sentiment – Put/Call Ratio · Put/Call Ratio Indicator The Put/Call ratio is relatively unchanged from last month : Sentiment indicators are “condition” indicators

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SPX Daily

Put/Call Ratio Indicator

The Put/Call ratio is relatively unchanged from last month: Sentiment indicators are “condition” indicators for us and not timing tools. Put/Call is more of a short-term indicator. This indicator showed considerable improvement at the October 2014 low, but has slowly weakened again. Short-term sentiment is neutral and longer-term indicators suggest complacency and remain a concern (see next page).

Market Review: Sentiment – Put/Call Ratio

Investor’s Intelligence %Bears indicator remains weak: The indicator continues to be in the danger zone. The action in the Investors Intelligence numbers shows complacency, and recent readings of the bulls are high – in the 60-area. The amount of bears has been steady with readings of 14.1 – 14.3 since February and changes in the “Bulls” numbers have all come from the “correction” camp, suggesting still more complacency. Declines could be sharp and quick so attention to risk management is indicated.

Market Review: Sentiment – Investors Intelligence % Bears Indicator (moving averages)

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SPX Weekly

% Bears Indicator

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ©2010

Lecture 10 - Sentiment & Supply/Demand

This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association

Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes

of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2010.

All rights are reserved.

1

Flow of Funds: Net Change in Supply of Stock

Quarterly, SAAR

S&P 500







2

Flow of Funds: Households

Equity Percent

Total Financial Assets

S&P 500

$Bill

ions







3 Flow of Funds: State & Local Government Employee Retirement Funds

S&P 500

Equity Percent

Total Financial Assets







4

Net Purchases of U.S. Equities by Foreign Investors

$Bill

ions

Inde

x

S&P 500

Quarterly net purchases







5

Net Purchases of Foreign Equities by U.S. Investors

$Bill

ions

Inde

x

S&P 500

Quarterly net purchases







6 Net Purchases of U.S. Equities by Foreign Investors minus Net Purchases of Foreign Equities by U.S. Investors

$Bill

ions

Inde

x

S&P 500

Quarterly net flows







7

Monthly

$Bill

ions

New Equity Financing

12-Month Total $B

illio

ns

S&P 500 Index







8

Secondary Distributions: Value

52-Week Moving Average

NYSE Composite







Perc

enta

ge

$Bill

ions

9

Margin Debt versus % of Market Value

% of Market Value

Margin Debt

Prior to January 1997, NYSE figures only

Market Value







10

Insider Activity

Inde

x

S&P 500

Bearish


Bullish







11

Individual Buying Power Index

Inde

x

S&P 500

Buying Power Index

Indi

vidu

al B

uyin

g Po

wer

Inde

x







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Equity Mutual Funds: Cash Percentage of Net Assets

Perc

ent

Inde

x

DJIA

Cash Percentage (Monthly)







13 Sales (Including Reinvested Dividends) and Redemptions of Equity Mutual Funds (Disc 2013)

Sales

Redemptions

$Bill

ions

S&P 500

Inde

x







14

S&P 500

Net Sales (Monthly)

Net Sales of Equity Mutual Funds (Including Reinvested Dividends) (Net Issuance of ETFs after December 2007)

$Bill

ions

Inde

x







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Net Exchanges into Equity Mutual Funds (Disc 2013)

$Bill

ions

Inde

x

Net Exchanges (monthly)

S&P 500







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Equity Mutual Funds: Total Flows (including ETFs as of Jan. 2008)

$Bill

ions

Inde

x

Data change as of January 2008

Total Flows (Monthly)

S&P 500







Inde

x

17

Equity Mutual Funds: Net Purchases of Common Stock

$Bill

ions

Net Purchases (Monthly)

S&P 500







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S&P 500 Dividend Yield vs. Price / Earnings Ratio

Dividend Yield P/E Ratio

Rat

io

PE

P/E Ratio 142.30 - October 2009

S&P 500







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ISE 10-Day Index Put/Call Ratio

Inde

x

Rat

io

S&P 500

10-Day Ratio

Bearish

Bullish







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ISE 10-Day Equity Put/Call Ratio

Inde

x

Rat

io

S&P 500

10-Day Ratio

Bearish

Bullish







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CBOE 10-Day Index Put/Call Ratio

Inde

x

Rat

io

S&P 500

10-Day Ratio

Bearish

Bullish







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CBOE 10-Day Equity Put/Call Ratio

Inde

x

Rat

io

S&P 500

10-Day Ratio

Bearish

Bullish







23 Options Clearing Corp. (OCC) Equity Options Premium Put/Call Ratio (with SD Line)


Bullish

S&P 500

Bearish

Inde

x







24 Options Clearing Corp. (OCC) Index Options Premium Put/Call Ratio (with Bull/Bear lines)

4-Wk. Moving Average

S&P 500

Bearish

Bullish

Inde

x







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Consensus Inc. Bullish Percentage: Equities

Bearish

S&P 500

Bullish

4-Week Moving Average Inde

x

Perc

ent







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Market Vane Bullish Percentage: Equities

Bearish

S&P 500

Bullish


Inde

x

Perc

ent







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Bull/Bear Ratio from Investor’s Intelligence

Inde

x

Bearish

S&P 500

Bullish


Perc

ent







28 Bull/Bear Ratio from American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)

Inde

x

Bearish


Bullish

S&P 500

Rat

io







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NYSE Total Short Interest vs. Short Interest Ratio

Bill

ions

of S

hare

s

Short Interest Ratio

Total Short Interest

S&P 500







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NYSE Short Interest Ratio with Bull/Bear Line

Perc

ent

Short Interest Ratio

DJIA

Bearish

Bullish

Documents

Market Review : Sentiment – Put/Call Ratio · Put/Call Ratio Indicator The Put/Call ratio is relatively unchanged from last month : Sentiment indicators are “condition” indicators