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Presented by: John Bai, CFA SVP & Chief Investment Officer Yufei Man, CFA, CAIA Director, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy October 26, 2020 Market Update & Outlook

Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

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Page 1: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

Presented by:

John Bai, CFA

SVP & Chief Investment Officer

Yufei Man, CFA, CAIA

Director, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy

October 26, 2020

Market Update & Outlook

Page 2: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

NEI INVESTMENTS » 2

NEI is committed to responsible investing

Long-standing 30-year history of being Canada’s leader in responsible investing

As Ethical Funds

As NEI

Ethical Funds

merges with NW

Funds to form NEI

NEI launches

Canada’s first fossil

fuel free, resource

optimization fund

NEI decides to

apply RI strategies

across entire fund

lineup

NEI becomes part of

Aviso Wealth Group

of Companies

OceanRock

Investments merges

with NEI to create

Canada’s largest ever

RI provider

The decade

of impact

Ethical Funds –

forerunner to NEI

– launches first RI

fund in Canada

Founding member

Social Investment

Organization

(now RIA)

Product lineup

expanded to five

RI funds

First to disclose

Proxy Voting

Guidelines

Launched

shareholder action

program

Joined UN PRI

in its first year

Founding Member

of the Carbon

Disclosure Project

Page 3: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

NEI INVESTMENTS » 3

Vertically integrated, market-leading solutions in each line of business:

• wealth management – Credential

• asset management – NEI Investments

• digital wealth – Qtrade Investor and VirtualWealth

• correspondent & institutional – Aviso Correspondent Partners

$60+ billionCombined assets

300+Financial institution partners

30+ yearsWealth management experience

The strength of one of Canada’s largest

independent wealth management firms

Page 4: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

NEI INVESTMENTS » 4

Global, open-ended partnership structure

• Access to unique mandates,

exceptional talent and powerful

alliances that can amplify our

impact as responsible investors

• Flexibility to make changes

and innovate

18external investment

managers

$7+ trillion of AUM

100+ offices worldwide

Page 5: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

NEI INVESTMENTS » 5

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2019-Dec 2020-Jan 2020-Feb 2020-Mar 2020-Apr 2020-May 2020-Jun 2020-Jul 2020-Aug 2020-Sep

Global Stocks

Stocks surpass pre-COVID levels

Source: Bloomberg. As of October 22, 2020. Global stocks represented by the MSCI World Index.

February 19:

Previous all-time high

March 23: market bottomed

September 2:

New all-time high

Page 6: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

NEI INVESTMENTS » 6

Long-run bull and bear market cycles

Bull and bear markets since 1960 (S&P 500)

Source: Morningstar Direct. As of September 30, 2020.

Page 7: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

NEI INVESTMENTS » 7

NEI’s investment outlook

Short-term (<12 months):

1. Rise/second wave in virus cases will lead to regional lockdowns which will delay economic

recovery. Lack of further U.S. fiscal support also likely to weaken demand and weigh on labour

market. Both factors likely to drive volatility in the near-term.

2. November U.S. elections.

Long-term (1-3 years):

1. Ultra accommodative monetary policy continue to be supportive of risk assets such as equities

and credit.

2. Long-term government bond yields could tick higher on expectations of further fiscal measures,

but likely to remain suppressed on a secular basis.

3. Don’t be surprised if inflation surprises.

Page 8: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

NEI INVESTMENTS » 8

US elections

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

Jun 01 Jun 15 Jun 29 Jul 13 Jul 27 Aug 10 Aug 24 Sep 07 Sep 21 Oct 05 Oct 19

Trump Biden

PredictIt.com

Source: Bloomberg. As of October 22, 2020.

Page 9: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

NEI INVESTMENTS » 9

World GDP growth projections

World Real GDP (Year-over-Year Growth %)(Grey bars = actual, blue bars = forecast)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Projections. As of October 2020.

3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4%3.9%

3.6%

2.8%

-4.4%

5.2%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Page 10: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

NEI INVESTMENTS » 10

Bond yields to remain supressed

10 Year Government of Canada Bond Yield

Source: Bloomberg. As of September 30, 2020. Bond yield = yield-to-maturity.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Page 11: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

NEI INVESTMENTS » 11

Shift from monetary to fiscal policy

• For most developed

economies, post-pandemic

spending far exceeds their

post-GFC fiscal response

• With nearly all major central

banks anchoring rates near-

zero and pursuing ultra-

accommodative monetary

policy, fiscal policy will be the

primary economic driver

going forward

Source: BCA Research. Data as of September 30, 2020.

Page 12: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

NEI INVESTMENTS » 12

Fiscal shift creates once-in-a-generation

transition opportunity: “Green New Deal”

• “Green New Deal” roots go back to social and economic reforms and public works

projects following the 1930’s Great Depression

• Canada: fall fiscal update to focus on a “strong, inclusive, and green recovery”

• US: Green New Deal gaining strong traction since 2018 but ultimately hinges on 2020

election outcomes; many objectives part of Biden’s “Build Back Better” agenda

• Eurozone: “Green New Deal for Europe” key component of €750 billion European

recovery fund and €1 trillion multiannual budget

• UK: proposed “Green Recovery Act” with recommendations from European Green Deal

• China: aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 with ¥3.4 trillion yuan for New

Infrastructure

Page 13: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

WELCOME TO THE ‘DECADE OF IMPACT’

Page 14: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

IS IT POSSIBLE FOR AN OIL & GAS COMPANY TO BELIEVE IN CLIMATE CHANGE?

Page 15: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

Why NEI Now?

Page 16: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

NEI INVESTMENTS » 16

Page 17: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

SMART Transition to the Digital Economy From physical to digital world

CLEAN Transition to the Sustainable Economy From high carbon to low carbon world

RESILIENT Transition to a Durable EconomyFrom vulnerabilities to ability to withstand increased exogenous shocks

FAIR Transition to an Inclusive EconomyFrom inequalities to a better distribution of wealth

WE ARE UNDERGOING 4 TRANSITIONS.THE FUTURE IS…

Page 18: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

MAJOR ACTORS ACROSS THE INVESTMENT SPECTRUMARE RESPONDING

Page 19: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

Source: Network for Greening the Financial System.

CENTRAL BANKERS ARE RESPONDING

66 Central bank

Over 60 central banks and

regulators plus 13 observers

have formed Central Banks and

Supervisors’ Network for

Greening the Financial System,

defining best practices in

climate risk management.

Page 20: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

Source: UN PRI regulation map.

REGULATORS ARE RESPONDING

730 Policy revisions

There have been over 730 hard

and soft policy revisions across

some 500 policy instruments in

the largest 50 economies in the

world, which support investors

to consider long-term value

drivers, including ESG factors.

Page 21: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

Source: UN PRI membership.

ASSET MANAGERS ARE RESPONDING

US$100 Trillion

There are now more than 3,100

UN PRI signatories, with over

US$100 trillion in AUM.

Signatories are required to

report on their responsible

investment activities. NEI has

been a Canadian RI leader from

the beginning.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

PRI signatories within Canada (cumulative count)

Page 22: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

Source:The Business Roundtable Statement on the Purpose of a Corporation; Image: New York Times

CORPORATIONS ARE RESPONDING

181 CEOs

The Business Roundtable,

comprised of 181 CEOs of large

U.S. companies, declared that

the purpose of a corporation is

not just to serve shareholders

(their official position since

1997), but “to create value for

all our stakeholders.”

Page 23: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

INVESTORS ARE RESPONDING

US$1 TrillionGlobal RI Fund assets

For the first time ever, global

sustainable mutual fund and

ETF assets topped US$ 1 trillion

in second quarter of 2020 driven

by strong investor interest in

ESG issues. Global inflows

surged 72% in Q2 to record

US$71 billion.

Record

Q2 2020

+72% to

US$71 Bn

Source: Morningstar Global Sustainable Fund Flows Q2 2020.

1,000

800

600

400

200

Q3 Q4 Q4Q3Q2Q1 Q4Q3Q2Q1 Q2Q1201920182017 2020

Page 24: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

YOUR PORTFOLIO CAN HAVE POSITIVE IMPACT ON ENVIROMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE ISSUES

Page 25: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

A THREE-DIMENSIONAL INVESTMENT APPROACH

• What rates of return are you seeking?

• What risk are you willing to take?

• What future real-world impact do you want to achieve?

Current state Future state

Risk

Retu

rn

2 Dimensional

Risk

Retu

rn 3 Dimensional

Page 26: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

RESPONSIBLE INVESTMENT POLICY

How we define responsible investing

Responsible investing incorporates ESG analysis of company performance into the

investment decision-making process, and seeks to generate sustainable value for

investors, shareholders, for other company stakeholders and for society as a whole.

Our responsible investment thesis

NEI’s approach to responsible investing incorporates the thesis that companies can

mitigate risk and take advantage of emerging business opportunities by integrating

best ESG practices into their strategies and operations.

Page 27: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

NEI: THE HIGHEST COMMITMENT TO RESPONSIBLE INVESTING.

Consideration

ESG is a consideration.

Screens

Certain types of stocks are

excluded, such as tobacco

or weapons.

Integrated

ESG is a factor in the stock

selection process.

Impact

Creating a measurable positive

impact on the world while

earning a financial return.

Our continued commitment to responsible investing also includes:

Advocacy

NEI engages with government and industry regulators

for policy changes to affect more wide-reaching change.

Engagement

NEI drives change through deep, persistent dialogues with

companies as well as shareholder proposals and proxy voting.

Lowest Commitment Highest Commitment

» IMPACT INVESTING » 27

Page 28: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

NEI Environmental Leaders Fund

Challenge:• Feeding a world population rising to 9.6 billion by 2050.

• Pollution from the production and overuse of fertilizer.

• Farming uses 70% of the world’s fresh water.

Investment:Agricultural productivity and reducing the use of resources has never been

more important. Technology is the answer. IMPAX has invested in a U.S.

manufacturer of GPS, sensors and communications equipment, which

created an innovative technology that allows more precise application of

fertilizers. This reduces pollution and the amount of resources used while

increasing crop yield. The technology will be used for other applications,

such as precision irrigation, which will save water.

CASE STUDY: OLD MACDONALD HAD A DRONE, A REMOTE-CONTROLLED TRACTOR AND FARM MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE.

The examples shown are presented for illustrative purposes only and are not to be viewed as representative of actual holdings. It should not be assumed that any client is invested in the (or similar) examples, nor should it be assumed that

an investment in the examples have been or will be profitable. Actual holdings will vary for each client and there is no guarantee that a particular client’s account will hold the examples presented.

Impact:

8.7 milliontonnes of CO2 annually

through precision fertilization

equivalent to taking 1.9

million cars off the road.

Page 29: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

HOW DO YOU CONVINCE AN ENERGY COMPANY TO USE LESS ENERGY?

The Goal: Help Suncor make a successful transition to a low carbon economy

What we talked about: To maintain their long-term viability, oil and gas companies need to re-define their roles and

businesses for a low carbon economy. We’re talking to Suncor about the company's future and helping them undertake

the strategic steps necessary to remain a sustainable business.

The results:

In 2017, Suncor set a new goal of reducing emissions intensity 30% by 2030

Other energy companies such as Exxon Mobil, Cenovus, Occidental and Teck Resources have since followed Suncor’s

lead, publishing their own reports addressing climate-related financial disclosures

The UN SDG:

UN GOAL (SDG) #13: CLIMATE ACTION

INVESTMENT GOAL: RISK MITIGATION AND VALUE CREATION

Page 30: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

RESPONSIBLE INVESTING: INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR SUPPORT CONTINUES TO GROW

ESG conviction amongst institutional investor investors continues to grow

75%

84%

67%

INCORPORATED ESG

principals into their

investment strategy

Believe RETURNS on

ESG-integrated portfolios

will be same or better

than those that do not

Agree that applying ESG

factors into their

investments can help to

reduce RISK.

94%

89%

72%

65%

Europe

Canada

Asia

USA

97%

96%

93%

74%

Canada

Europe

Asia

USA

96%

94%

93%

78%

Europe

Canada

Asia

USA

Source: 2020 RBC Global Asset Management Responsible Investment Survey

Page 31: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

It is no longer about sustainabilityversus profitability…

Page 32: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

… it’s about the opportunity to create a smarter, more sustainable, resilient and inclusive future

Page 33: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings

» IMPACT INVESTING » 33

QUESTIONS?

Page 34: Market Update & Outlook - Alterna Savings