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MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014

MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

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Page 1: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE

DECEMBER 11, 2014

Page 2: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

SPEAKERS

Steven Eisenberg

CEO

Alex Sheets

Vice President

Page 3: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

AGENDA

• Company Overview

• SREC-II Program Overview

• SREC-I and SREC-II Capacity and Supply

• SREC-I and SREC-II Pricing

• Solar Task Force Update

• Q&A

This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. It or any components may not be reproduced,

republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcast or otherwise exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of

SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of this document does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to

manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use these materials is granted, a link to the current version of

this document on the SRECTrade website must be included for reference.

Page 4: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

TRANSACTION & MANAGEMENT PLATFORM

• Since 2008

• 140+ MW under management

• 10,000+ facilities under management

• 100% SREC focused

• Brokerage model

Page 5: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

CLIENTS

CORPORATE

RESIDENTIAL &

SMALL

COMMERCIAL

INSTALLERS &

DEVELOPERS

Electricity suppliers and

institutional clients with

systems above 250 kW

Home owners and

commercial systems

smaller than 250 kW

Turn-key SREC solutions

for solar installers and

developers

Page 6: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

BROKERAGE

Spot transactions

Structured forward solutions

Monthly spot auctions

SOFTWARE

Onboarding with regulators &

registries

Tracking production & SRECs issued

Executing & settling SREC

transactions

PRODUCTS & SERVICES

Page 7: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

SREC-II PROGRAM OVERVIEW

Features SREC-II

Program start April 25, 2014

Adjustable Minimum Standard Yes

Decreasing ACP Rate Schedule Yes

SCCA Opt-in Schedule Yes, 40 quarters from qualification date

Decreasing SCCA Price Starts at $285/SREC and decreases over time

Program Cap 1,600 MW less final SREC-I qualified capacity

Market Sectors Yes

SREC Factors Yes

Project Size Maximum Yes, 6 MW DC

Page 8: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

MARKET SECTORS

Market Sector Factor

A

1. Generation Units with a capacity of <=25 kW DC

2. Solar Canopy Generation Units

3. Emergency Power Generation Units

4. Community Shared Solar Generation Units

5. Low or Moderate Income Housing Generation Units

1.0

B

1. Building Mounted Generation Units

2. Ground mounted Generation Units with a capacity > 25 kW DC with 67% or more of the

electric output on an annual basis used by an on-site load

0.9

C

1. Generation Units sited on Eligible Landfills

2. Generation Units sited on Brownfields

3. Ground mounted Generation Units with a capacity of <= 650 kW with less than 67% of the

electrical output on an annual basis used by an on-site load.

0.8

MG Unit that does not meet the criteria of Market Sector A, B, or C. 0.7

Page 9: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

SACP AND SCCA SCHEDULES

Year Auction Price Bid Auction Price After 5% Fee ACP Rate

2014 300 285 375

2015 300 285 375

2016 300 285 350

2017 285 271 350

2018 271 257 350

2019 257 244 333

2020 244 232 316

2021 232 221 300

2022 221 210 285

2023 210 199 271

2024 199 189 257

2025+ Values announced by DOER each year to maintain 10-year forward schedule.

Page 10: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

SREC-I CAPACITY

As of December 9, 2014

• 655.5 MW and 11,787 Projects Qualified

• 608.9 MW and 11,758 Projects Operational

• 46.6 MW and 29 Projects Not Operational

608.9

46.6

655.5

MW

Operational Not Operational

Source: MA DOER

Page 11: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

SREC-I SUPPLY –SCENARIO 1

Assuming all 2013 reminted and 2014 SRECs go towards 2014 compliance

Source: MA DOER, NEPOOL GIS, and SRECTrade Estimates

142,786

83,803

184,752

215,059

145,137

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2014

MA2014

MA2013 Reminted Q1 2014 SRECs Issued

Q2 2014 SRECs Issued Q3 2014 PTS MWh

Q4 2014 Estimate

MA2014 SREC-Is

Req.

313,311

760,205

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

2014

MA2015

MA2014 Purchased or Reminted

2015 SREC Forecast

MA2015 SREC-Is

Req.

2014 Oversupply =

~310,000

2015 Oversupply =

~40,000

Page 12: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

SREC-I SUPPLY –SCENARIO 2

2013 reminted volumes not used towards 2014, but 2015 or 2016

Source: MA DOER, NEPOOL GIS, and SRECTrade Estimates

-

83,803

184,752

215,059

145,137

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2014

MA2014

MA2013 Reminted Q1 2014 SRECs Issued

Q2 2014 SRECs Issued Q3 2014 PTS MWh

Q4 2014 Estimate

MA2014 SREC-Is

Req.

170,525

760,205

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

2014

MA2015

MA2014 Purchased or Reminted

2015 SREC Forecast

MA2015 SREC-Is

Req.

2014 Oversupply =

~170,000

2015 Undersupply =

~100,000

Page 13: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

27.9

13.6

0.8

42.3

MW

Market Sector A Market Sector B Market Sector C

SREC-II CAPACITY

As of December 9, 2014

• 180.2 MW and 4,216 Projects Qualified

• 42.3 MW and 4,134 Projects Operational

• 137.9 MW and 82 Projects Not Operational

Source: MA DOER

Page 14: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

718

2,365

7,750

8,782

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2014

Q1 2014 SRECs Issued Q2 2014 SRECs Issued

Q3 2014 Estimate Q4 2014 Estimate

MA2014 SREC-IIs Req.

SREC-II SUPPLY - 2014

In December 2014, DOER announced:

• Revised compliance for 2014 & 2015

• 2014 = 26,642 SRECs

• Down 35% from 41,279

• 2015 = 131,007 SRECs

• Down 19% from 161,958

• Managed Growth projects will not be granted

extensions for weather delay

Source: MA DOER, NEPOOL GIS, and SRECTrade Estimates

Page 15: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

SREC-II SUPPLY - 2015

Source: MA DOER and SRECTrade Estimates

2015 Compliance Obligation = 131,007 SRECs

• Current capacity can produce ~47,000 MA2015 SREC-IIs

• At recent monthly build, Sectors A-C will produce ~79,000

• With A, B, and C at 10 MW/month (4 MW, 3 MW, & 3 MW) in 2015, almost

110,000 SRECs would be issued

• Greater per month build rates and the roll out of managed growth will lead to larger

issuance figures

• No managed growth projects are operational yet

Page 16: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

SREC-I PRICING: 2014 MARKET

MA14: 285 @ 290

Page 17: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

SREC-I PRICING: 3 YEAR FORWARD MARKET

MA15: 420 @ 435

MA16: 410 @ 420

MA17: 290 @ 305

Page 18: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

SREC-II PRICING

MA14: 350 @ 360

MA15: 275 @ 315

Page 19: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

POLICY UPDATE –TASK FORCE

• First meeting occurred November 13

• Ground Rules, Framework Document, Scope of work for consultant

• Second meeting to occur December 15

• Consultant presentation

• End-goal: Draft report + Comments, Draft report + Comments, Final report by

March

Page 20: MASSACHUSETTS SREC UPDATE DECEMBER 11, 2014Webinar_FINAL.pdf · 2014-12-12 · MA2015 MA2014 Purchased or Reminted 2015 SREC Forecast MA2015 SREC-Is Req. 2014 Oversupply = ~170,000

[email protected]

(877) 466-4606

[email protected]

(415) 702-0863

[email protected]

(802) 989-2617