Mat 540 Midterm 2016

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Question 1

5 out of 5 points

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model

parameters.

Selected Answer: True

Correct Answer: True

Question

5 out of 5 points

An inspector correctly identi!es defecti"e products #$% of the time. &or the next

1$ products' the pro(a(ility that he ma)es fewer than incorrect inspections is

$.*+,.



Question +

5 out of 5 points

A continuous random "aria(le may assume only inte-er "alues within a -i"en

inter"al.

Selected Answer: &alse

Correct Answer: &alse

Question

5 out of 5 points
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A decision tree is a dia-ram consistin- of circles decision nodes' square

pro(a(ility nodes' and (ranches.



Question 5

5 out of 5 points

Simulation results will always equal analytical results if +$ trials of the simulationha"e (een conducted.



Question ,

5 out of 5 points

/xcel can only (e used to simulate systems that can (e represented (y

continuous random "aria(les.



Question *

5 out of 5 points

Data cannot exhi(it (oth trend and cyclical patterns.
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Question 0

5 out of 5 points

The Delphi de"elops a consensus forecast a(out what will occur in the future.



Question #

5 out of 5 points

A company mar)ets educational software products' and is ready to place three

new products on the mar)et. ast experience has shown that for this particular

software' the chance of 2success2 is 0$%. Assume that the pro(a(ility of success

is independent for each product. 3hat is the pro(a(ility that exactly 1 of the +

products is successful4

Selected Answer:

$.$#,

Correct Answer:

$.$#,

Question 1$

5 out of 5 points

Assume that it ta)es a colle-e student an a"era-e of 5 minutes to !nd a par)in-

spot in the main par)in- lot. Assume also that this time is normally distri(uted

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with a standard de"iation of minutes. 3hat time is exceeded (y approximately

*5% of the colle-e students when tryin- to !nd a par)in- spot in the main

par)in- lot4

Selected Answer:

+.* minutes

Correct Answer:

+.* minutes

Question 11

5 out of 5 points

The is the maximum amount a decision ma)er would pay for

additional information.

Selected Answer:

expected "alue of perfect information

Correct Answer:

expected "alue of perfect information

Question 1

5 out of 5 points

seudorandom num(ers exhi(it in order to (e considered truly

random.

Selected Answer:

a uniform distri(ution

Correct Answer:
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a uniform distri(ution

Question 1+

5 out of 5 points

6n the 7onte Carlo process' "alues for a random "aria(le are -enerated (y

a pro(a(ility distri(ution.

Selected Answer:

samplin- from

Correct Answer:

samplin- from

Question 1

5 out of 5 points

De"elopin- the cumulati"e pro(a(ility distri(ution helps to determine

Selected Answer:

random num(er ran-es

Correct Answer:

random num(er ran-es

Question 15

5 out of 5 points

Two hundred simulation runs were completed usin- the pro(a(ility of a machine

(rea)down from the ta(le (elow. The a"era-e num(er of (rea)downs from the

simulation trials was 1.#+ with a standard de"iation of $.$.

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8o. of

(rea)downs

per wee)

ro(a(ilityCumulati"e

pro(a(ility

$ .1$ .1$

1 .5 .+5

.+, .*1

+ . .#+

.$* 1.$$

3hat is the pro(a(ility of or fewer (rea)downs4

Selected Answer:

.*1

Correct Answer:

.*1

Question 1,

5 out of 5 points

ro(

1' and 159estion worth points' 1 hour time limit chapters 1'ue units

/;C/T:The

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5$ .5$

5$$ .

The estimated a"era-e price per (ushel is >1,.0$.

3hat is the expected yield of the crop4

Selected Answer:

Correct Answer:

Question 1*

5 out of 5 points

is the di?erence (etween the forecast and actual demand.

Selected Answer:

&orecast error

Correct Answer:

&orecast error

Question 10

5 out of 5 points

is a cate-ory of statistical techniques that uses historical data to

predict future (eha"ior.

Selected Answer:

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Time series

Correct Answer:

Time series

Question 1#

5 out of 5 points

@i"en the followin- data on the num(er of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice

cream store for a ,period time frame:

6f the forecast for period 5 is equal to *5' use exponential smoothin- with B .

$ to compute a forecast for period *.

Selected Answer:

0,.

Correct Answer:

0,.

Question $

5 out of 5 points

Coecient of determination is the percenta-e of the "ariation in the

"aria(le that results from the "aria(le.

Selected Answer:

dependent' independent

Correct Answer:

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dependent' independent

Question 1

5 out of 5 points

Consider the followin- -raph of sales.

3hich of the followin- characteristics is exhi(ited (y the data4

Selected Answer:

8one of the a(o"e

Correct Answer:

8one of the a(o"e

Question

5 out of 5 points

Consider the followin- -raph of sales.

3hich of the followin- characteristics is exhi(ited (y the data4

Selected Answer:

Trend only

Correct Answer:

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Trend only

Question +

5 out of 5 points

6n exponential smoothin-' the closer alpha is to ' the -reater the

reaction to the most recent demand.

Selected Answer:

1

Correct Answer:

1

Question

5 out of 5 points

is a linear re-ression model relatin- demand to time.

Selected Answer:

Einear trend

Correct Answer:

Einear trend

Question 5

5 out of 5 points

An automoti"e center )eeps trac)s of customer complaints recei"ed each wee).

The pro(a(ility distri(ution for complaints can (e represented as a ta(le or a

-raph' (oth shown (elow. The random "aria(le xi represents the num(er of

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complaints' and pxi9 is the pro(a(ility of recei"in- xi complaints.

xi $ 1 + 5 ,

pxi9 .1$ .15 .10 .$ .$ .1$ .$*

3hat is the a"era-e num(er of complaints recei"ed per wee)4 Found your

answer to two places after the decimal.

Selected Answer: .0+

Correct Answer:

/"aluation 7ethod Correct Answer Case Sensiti"ity

/xact 7atch .0+

/xact 7atch .0

/xact 7atch .0

Question ,

5 out of 5 points

An online sweepsta)es has the followin- payo?s and pro(a(ilities. /ach person

is limited to one entry.

The pro(a(ility of winnin- at least >1'$$$.$$ is .
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Selected Answer: $.$$$,

Correct Answer:


/xact 7atch $.$$$,

/xact 7atch .$$$,

Question *

5 out of 5 points

A fair die is rolled 0 times. 3hat is the pro(a(ility that an e"en num(er '' ,9

will occur (etween and times4 Found your answer to four places after the

decimal.

Selected Answer: $.,$1,

Correct Answer:


/xact 7atch $.,$1,

/xact 7atch $.,$15

/xact 7atch $.,$1*

/xact 7atch .,$1,

/xact 7atch .,$15

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/xact 7atch .,$1*

Question 0

5 out of 5 points

A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that

the pro(a(ility distri(ution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a

normal distri(ution with a mean of ,0 years and a standard de"iation of years.

3hat proportion of the plan recipients would recei"e payments (eyond a-e *54

Found your answer to four places after the decimal.

Selected Answer: $.$$1

Correct Answer:


/xact 7atch $.$$1

/xact 7atch $.$$$

/xact 7atch $.$$

/xact 7atch .$$1

/xact 7atch .$$$

/xact 7atch .$$

Question #

$ out of 5 points

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The local operations mana-er for the 6FS must decide whether to hire 1' ' or +

temporary wor)ers. Ge estimates that net re"enues will "ary with how well

taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The followin- payo? ta(le is -i"en inthousands of dollars e.-. 5$ >5$'$$$9.

6f he uses the maximin criterion' how many new wor)ers will he hire4

Selected Answer: ,

Correct Answer:


/xact 7atch 1

Question +$

5 out of 5 points

An in"estor is considerin- di?erent opportunities' A' H' C' or D. The payo? for

each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions' represented in the

payo? ta(le (elow.

/conomic Condition oor A"era-e @ood /xcellent

6n"estment S19 S9 S+9 S9

A 5$ *5 $ +$

H 0$ 15 $ 5$

C 1$$ +$$ 5$ 1$

D 5 5 5 5

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6f the pro(a(ilities of each economic condition are $.5' $.1' $.+5' and $.$5

respecti"ely' what is the hi-hest expected payo?4

Selected Answer: 50

Correct Answer:


/xact 7atch 50

Question +1

$ out of 5 points

A normal distri(ution has a mean of 5$$ and a standard de"iation of 5$. A

mana-er wants to simulate one "alue from this distri(ution' and has drawn the

num(er 1. randomly. 3hat is the simulated "alue4

Selected Answer: $.$$$$+

Correct Answer:


/xact 7atch 5*$

Question +

5 out of 5 points

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Daily hi-hs in Sacramento for the past wee) from least to most recent9 were:

#5' 1$' 1$1' #,' #5' #$ and #. De"elop a forecast for today usin- a day

mo"in- a"era-e.

Selected Answer: #1

Correct Answer:


/xact 7atch #1

Question ++

5 out of 5 points

The followin- sales data are a"aila(le for $$+$$0 :

=ear Sales &orecast

$$+ * #

$$ 1 1$

$$5 1 15

$$, $

$$* 1, 10

$$0 5 1

Calculate the a(solute "alue of the a"era-e error.

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Selected Answer: .1,*

Correct Answer:


/xact 7atch $.1,*

/xact 7atch $.1,,

/xact 7atch $.1,0

/xact 7atch .1,*

/xact 7atch .1,,

/xact 7atch .1,0

Question +

$ out of 5 points

Daily hi-hs in Sacramento for the past wee) from least to most recent9 were:

#5' 1$' 1$1' #,' #5' #$ and #. De"elop a forecast for today usin- a wei-hted

mo"in- a"era-e' with wei-hts of .,' .+ and .1' where the hi-hest wei-hts are

applied to the most recent data.

Selected Answer: #1

Correct Answer:


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/xact 7atch #1.*

Question +5

5 out of 5 points



Compute a +period mo"in- a"era-e for period ,.

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Fo(ert wants to )now if there is a relation (etween money spent on -am(lin-

and winnin-s.

3hat is the coecient of determination4 8ote: please report your answer with

places after the decimal point.

Selected Answer: $.#

Correct Answer:


/xact 7atch $.#

/xact 7atch .#

Question +*

5 out of 5 points

The followin- sales data are a"aila(le for $$+$$0.

Determine a year wei-hted mo"in- a"era-e forecast for $$#' where wei-htsare 31 $.1' 3 $.' 3+ $. and 3 $.5.

Selected Answer: 1.1

Correct Answer:

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/xact 7atch 1.1

Question +0

5 out of 5 points

The followin- data summariIes the historical demand for a product

7onth

Actual

Demand

7arch $

April 5

7ay $

June +5

July +$

Au-ust 5

6f the forecasted demand for June' July and Au-ust is +' +0 and ' respecti"ely'

what is 7AD4 3rite your answer in decimal form and not in percenta-es. &or

example' 15% should (e written as $.15.

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/xact 7atch $.1*

/xact 7atch $.1,

/xact 7atch $.10

/xact 7atch .1*

/xact 7atch .1,

/xact 7atch .10

Question +#

5 out of 5 points



Compute a +period mo"in- a"era-e for period .

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/xact 7atch 11.,0

Question $

5 out of 5 points

This is the data from the last wee)s:

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Mat 540 Midterm 2016