Math 227 Statistics. Chapter 1 Outline 1 The Nature of Probability and Statistics 1-1Descriptive and Inferential Statistics 1-2Variables and Types of

Math 227

Statistics

Chapter 1

Outline

1The Nature of Probability and The Nature of Probability and StatisticsStatistics

1-1 Descriptive and Inferential Statistics

1-2 Variables and Types of Data

1-3 Data Collection and Sampling Techniques

1-4 Observational and Experimental Studies

1-5 Uses and Misuses of Statistics

1-6 Computers and Calculators

1-1 Descriptive and Inferential 1-1 Descriptive and Inferential StatisticsStatistics

Descriptive statisticsDescriptive statistics consists of the consists of the collection, organization, summarization, collection, organization, summarization, and presentation of data.and presentation of data.

Inferential statisticsInferential statistics consists of consists of generalizing from samples to populations, generalizing from samples to populations, performing estimations and hypothesis performing estimations and hypothesis tests, determining relationships among tests, determining relationships among variables, and making predictions.variables, and making predictions.

44Bluman Chapter 1Bluman Chapter 1

Example 1 :

a) In the 1996 presidential election, voters in Massachusetts cast 1,571,763 votes for Bill Clinton, 718,107 for Bob Dole, and 227,217 for H. Ross Perot.

b)

Descriptive Statistics

Inferential Statistics

Determine whether the results given are example of descriptive or inferential statistics

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor Richard Larson studies the physics and psychology of queues. He estimates that people spend an average of 30 minutes a day in line.

II. Parameter and Statistic

Population –

Sample –

Parameter –

Statistic –

consists of all subjects (human or otherwise) that are being studied.

a group of subjects selected from a population (subset).

a characteristic or measure obtained by using all the data values for a specific population.

a characteristic or measure obtained by using the data values from a sample.

Example 1 :

Statistic

A national organization of personnel managers has estimated that about 25% of all resumes contain a major fabrication. Is 25 the value of a parameter or a statistic?

Example 2 :

a)

b) What is the parameter of interest?

Population – seniors at a college

Data values – 750

Their GPA

Consider the problem of estimating the average point average (GPA) of the 750 seniors at a college.

What is the population? How many data values are in the population?

c)

d)

No, because another group of 10 seniors would have different GPA’s.

Suppose that a sample of 10 seniors is selected, and their GPAs are 2.72, 2.81, 2.65, 2.69, 3.17, 2.74, 2.57, 2.17, 3.48, 3.10. Calculate a statistic that you would use to estimate the parameter.

Suppose that another sample of 10 seniors was selected. Would it be likely that the value of the statistic is the same as in part (c)? Why or why not? Would the value of the parameter remain the same?

Yes, the parameter would be the same because we’re still looking at the GPA of all seniors.

Section 1 - 2

I. Variables

A variable -

Variables can be classified as qualitative (categorical) or quantitative (numerical).

Quantitative variables can be further classified into discrete or continuous data.

Discrete variables assume values that can be counted. (e.g. # of books, # of desks)

Continuous variables assume all values between any two specific values. (e.g. length, time, etc.)

a characteristic that changes for different individuals or objects under study.

1-2 Variables and Types of Data1-2 Variables and Types of Data

Data

QualitativeCategorical

QuantitativeNumerical,

Can be ranked

DiscreteCountable

5, 29, 8000, etc.

ContinuousCan be decimals2.59, 312.1, etc.


1-2 Recorded Values and 1-2 Recorded Values and BoundariesBoundaries

Variable Recorded Value

Boundaries

Length 15 centimeters (cm)

Temperature 86 Fahrenheit (F)

Time 0.43 second (sec)

Mass 1.6 grams (g)

14.5-15.5 cm

85.5-86.5 F

0.425-0.435 sec

1.55-1.65 g


Example 1 :

a) Number of people in the classroom

b) Weights of new born babies in a hospital

c) Eye colors of students in Math 227

Quantitative – Discrete because # of people can be counted.

Quantitative – Continuous because the measurements are within a range.

Qualitative

Classify each variable as qualitative or quantitative. If the variable is quantitative, further classify it as discrete or continuous.

II. Measurement Scales

Nominal level of measurement –

Ordinal level of measurement –

categorical data in which no ordering or ranking can be imposed on the data.(e.g. eye colors)

categorical data that can be ranked. (e.g. rating scale - poor, good, excellent)

1-2 Variables and Types of Data1-2 Variables and Types of Data

Determine the measurement level.Determine the measurement level.

Variable Nominal Ordinal Interval Ratio Level

Hair Color Yes No Nominal

Zip Code Yes No Nominal

Letter Grade Yes Yes No Ordinal

ACT Score Yes Yes Yes No Interval

Height Yes Yes Yes Yes Ratio

Age Yes Yes Yes Yes Ratio

Temperature(F) Yes Yes Yes No Interval


Interval level of measurement –

Ratio level of measurement –

numerical data can be ranked; the differences between units of measure do exist; however, there is no true zero.(e.g. sea level, temperature)

numerical data that can be ranked. The differences and ratios between units of measure do exist, and there exists a true zero.

Example 1 :

a) Sizes of cars

b) Nationality of each student

c) IQ of each student

d) Weights of new born babies

Categorical – ordinal

Categorical – nominal

Numerical – interval

Numerical – ratio

Classify each as nominal-level, ordinal-level, interval-level, or ratio-level data.

1-3 Data Collection and Sampling 1-3 Data Collection and Sampling TechniquesTechniques

Some Sampling TechniquesSome Sampling Techniques RandomRandom – random number generator – random number generator SystematicSystematic – every k – every kthth subject subject StratifiedStratified – divide population into “layers” – divide population into “layers” ClusterCluster – use intact groups – use intact groups ConvenientConvenient – mall surveys – mall surveys


II. Methods of Sampling

Random Sampling –

Systematic Sampling –

each experimental unit has an equal chance of being selected. (e.g. Lottery)

an initial experimental unit is randomly selected, then every k th unit is being chosen for sampling.

e.g. A quality control engineer selects every 200th TV remote control from an assembly line and conducts a test of qualities.

Stratified Sampling – the population is divided into subgroups (or strata) that share the same characteristics, then a sample from each subgroup (or stratum) is selected.

e.g. A General Motors research team partitioned all registered cars into categories of subcompact, compact, mid-sized, and full-size. He surveyed 200 car owners from each category.

Convenience Sampling –

Cluster Sampling – the population area is divided into sections (or clusters), then randomly select some of those clusters, and then choose a sample or all the members from those selected clusters. e.g. Two of nine colleges in the L.A. district are randomly selected, then all faculty from the two selected college are interviewed.

use results that are very easy to get. e.g. An NBC television news reporter gets a reaction to a breaking story by polling people as they pass the front of his studio.

Example 1 :

a)

b)

c)

Stratified

Convenience

Random

A marketing expert for MTV is planning a survey in which 500 people will be randomly selected from each age group of 10-19, 20-29, and so on.

A news reporter stands on a street corner and obtains a sample of city residents by selecting five passing adults about their smoking habits.

In a Gallup poll of 1059 adults, the interview subjects were selected by using a computer to randomly generate telephone numbers that were then called.

Identify which of these types of sampling is used: random, systematic, convenience, stratified, or cluster.

d)

e)

f)

g)

Systematic

Cluster

Stratified

Cluster

At a police sobriety checkpoint at which every 10th driver was stopped and interviewed.

A market researcher randomly selects 10 blocks in the Village of Newport, then asks all adult residents of the selected blocks whether they own a DVD player.

General Foods plan to conduct a market survey of 100 men and 100 women in Orange County.

CNN is planning an exit poll in which 100 polling stations will be randomly selected and all voters will be interviewed as they leave the premises.

h)

i)

Random

Systematic

An executive mixes all the returned surveys in a bin, then obtains a sample group by pulling 50 of those surveys.

The Dutchess County Commissioner of Jurors obtains a list of 42,763 car owners and constructs a pool of jurors by selecting every 150th name on that list.

1-4 Observational and 1-4 Observational and Experimental StudiesExperimental Studies

In an In an observational studyobservational study, the researcher , the researcher merely observes and tries to draw conclusions merely observes and tries to draw conclusions based on the observations.based on the observations.

The researcher manipulates the The researcher manipulates the independent independent (explanatory) variable(explanatory) variable and tries to determine and tries to determine how the manipulation influences the how the manipulation influences the dependent dependent (outcome) variable(outcome) variable in an in an experimental studyexperimental study..

A A confounding variableconfounding variable influences the influences the dependent variable but cannot be separated dependent variable but cannot be separated from the independent variable.from the independent variable.


Section 1 - 4

I. Observational and Experimental Studies

Observational Study –

Experimental Study –

The experimenter records the outcomes of an experiment without control.

The experimenter intervenes by administering treatment to the subjects in order to study its effect on the subject.

An Independent Variable –

A Dependent Variable – the outcome variable.

A Treatment Group – the group that is being treated.

A Controlled Group – the group that is not being treated.

Confounding Factors – factors other than the treatment that can influence a study.

the variable that is being manipulated by the researcher.

Example 1 :

a) What is the treatment?

b) Identify the treatment group and the control group.

c) Is this an observational or experimental study?

d) What factor could confound the result?

Lipitor

Treatment group – The group given Lipitor.

Experimental

Change eating habits, diet, exercise, smoking, genes.

Control group – The group given a placebo.

Lipitor is a drug that is supposed to lower the cholesterol level. To test the effectiveness of the drug, 100 patients were randomly selected and 50 were randomly chosen to use Lipitor. The other 50 were given a placebo that contained no drug at all.

1-5 Uses and Misuses of Statistics1-5 Uses and Misuses of Statistics

Suspect SamplesSuspect Samples Is the sample large enough?Is the sample large enough? How was the sample selected?How was the sample selected? Is the sample representative of the Is the sample representative of the

population?population?

Ambiguous AveragesAmbiguous Averages What particular measure of average was What particular measure of average was

used and why?used and why?



Changing the SubjectChanging the Subject Are different values used to represent the Are different values used to represent the

same data?same data?

Detached StatisticsDetached Statistics One third fewer calories…….than what?One third fewer calories…….than what?

Implied ConnectionsImplied Connections Studies Studies suggestsuggest that that somesome people people maymay

understand what this statement means.understand what this statement means.



Misleading GraphsMisleading Graphs Are the scales for the Are the scales for the xx-axis and -axis and yy-axis -axis

appropriate for the data?appropriate for the data?

Faulty Survey QuestionsFaulty Survey Questions Do you feel that statistics teachers should Do you feel that statistics teachers should

be paid higher salaries?be paid higher salaries? Do you favor increasing tuition so that Do you favor increasing tuition so that

colleges can pay statistics teachers higher colleges can pay statistics teachers higher salaries?salaries?


Section 1 - 5

I. Bias

Statistics can be misused in ways that are deceptive:

1) Using samples that are not representative of the population.

2) Questionnaire or interview process may be flawed.

3) Conclusions are based on samples that are far too small.

4) Using graphs that produce a misleading impression.

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Math 227 Statistics. Chapter 1 Outline 1 The Nature of Probability and Statistics 1-1Descriptive and Inferential Statistics 1-2Variables and Types of