May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 1 “If there is magic in this planet, it is contained in water... ” – Loren Eiseley

May 22-23, 2008 Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel

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“If there is magic in this planet, it is contained in water... ” – Loren Eiseley

The State of HMT, 2008

Timothy Schneider

HMT Project Manager

http://hmt.noaa.gov/

http://hmt.noaa.gov/Thanks to: Rob Hartman & Terri Moravitz

Objectives & Outcomes

#1 Formulating a response to the Management Action Plan

#2 To provide guidance for field operations in HMT-West during the 2008-2009 (and 2009-2010) season, that factors-in the outcomes from the HMT R2O workshop (held prior to the Advisory Panel meeting on May 20-21)

#3 To obtain a refreshed perspective on where HMT is and where it is going

#4 A report documenting the proceedings of the meeting and recommendations for the future conduct of HMT

R2O Workshop = “What”Advisory Panel Meeting = “How”


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AgendaDay 1; Session 1

Laying the Foundation08:00 am Welcome & Introductions; Hartman & Schneider

08:15 am The State of HMT; Schneider

Recommendations from last year; review Management Action Plan; what’s new?; fiscal status; long-range plans

10:15 am Break

10:30 am Report & Discussion from R2O Workshop; Hartman, Schneider & Others

11:00 am Announcement & Introduction to EFREP; Anderson & Schneider

11:30 am Review of HMT-West 2007-2008; Kingsmill

12:00 pm Lunch Break (on your own)


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HMT-West Planning Implementing results from R2O workshop; modifications to field work in FY09 & FY10. Prepare slides and handouts (if you like) of your work to facilitate discussion: Note: No more than 1 slide/person (though it would be good to have “backup slides” close to hand)

01:30 pm Discussion

03:30 pm Break

03:45 pm Discussion, cont’d

04:30 pm Adjourn for the day


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Execution Planning & RecommendationsMap activities onto the 5 major activity areas per HMT Management Action Plan (including milestones, deliverables, responsible parties, etc.). Draft recommendations for meeting report.

08:00 Recap & Objectives for the Day

08:15 Discussion – mapping future activities onto the 5 major activity areasi. QPEii. QPFiii. Snow Informationiv. Hydrologic Applicationsv. Decision Support Tools

10:15 Break

10:30 Resume Discussion – Draft recommendations11:45 Wrap up & Actions12:00 Adjourn Meeting

River and Stream Forecasts (NWS)– Flash Floods– Streamflow – Water Supply

Great Lakes (OAR)– Water Levels– Hazardous Spill Response

Major Bays and Ports (NOS)– Water Levels– Currents

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWS, OAR)

– Precipitation– Land Surface Conditions

Research and Development (OAR, NWS, NOS, NESDIS)

– Observations and Models

– Coupled Modeling Systems

NWS Organic Act: “…forecasting of weather, the issue of storm warnings, display of weather and flood signals for the benefit of agriculture, commerce, and navigation, the gauging and reporting of rivers…”

NOAA Inland Flood Forecasting and Warning Act: “…improve the capability to accurately forecast inland flooding, and conduct research, outreach, and education activities regarding the dangers and risks associated with inland flooding…”

NOAA Forecasts Water


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Water Resource Driver

• Societal Need: Reservoir operators and water managers need to balance demands for flood control and water supply

• They can achieve this through forecast-based operational techniques are being developed by reservoir operators

• Stu Townsley:– “NOAA products are essential to Corps flood risk

reduction mission”– “The Corps supports forecast product

enhancement”

Water Management Section, Sacramento District, Water Management Section, Sacramento District, US Army Corps of EngineersUS Army Corps of Engineers


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NOAA HMT’s Requirement

• To produce accurate 0-120 hour forecasts of extreme precipitation (NWS) to improve hydrologic forecasts and enable forecast-based water resource management

• NOAA must improve it’s forecasts of extreme precipitation events:– Analysis of QPF data from HMT ’06 showed that

only 2 out of 16 extreme events were predicted (>5” rainfall in 24 hours)


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NOAA Guidance Supporting HMT

2011-2015 AGM:• “Advanced notice of severe weather or water events…is a major driver of NOAA”s forecast and

warnings missions.”• “America’s water managers require dramatically more predictive information than currently provided.”

Regional Collaboration: One of the four cross-cutting priority areas of NOAA’s Regional Collaboration is Integrated Water Resource Services

NOAA Transition: The NOAA transition plan identifies water resources as a key issue to carry through a change in leadership

20-Year Research Vision: “With improved weather information… NOAA can… increase economic and human benefits, particularly through increasing the forecast accuracy of precipitation and water availability.”

Research in NOAA (2008-2012): • “NOAA will improve winter storm observations… and develop improved precipitation measurements,

precipitation type, wind observations, to provide effective forecasts and warnings.”• “…there is an increasing demand for an expanded suite of water resource predictions to support

flood mitigation and manage water availability…”

NWS-OAR Summit (Aug., 2006):

Identifies generating support for Testbeds as one of it’s four goalsNWS Hydrology STIP:

Identifies Hydrometeorological Testbeds to address key R&D needs

USWRP Recommended: “As NOAA considers the future of its integrated regional, surface, and tropospheric observing systems, it faces a key question addressed by this workshop—how to optimize the development and deployment of new measurement systems so as to strengthen the mesoscale observation and prediction capabilities over the United States. Testbeds can point the way toward filling this need, and, thus, they became a major focus of the workshop.”(From: Dabberdt et. al. 2005 “MULTIFUNCTIONAL MESOSCALE OBSERVING NETWORKS” Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. pp. 961--982)

NRC Recommended: The NRC report “NOAA’s Role in Space-Based Global Precipitation Estimation and Application” recommends the NOAA HMT: “There will be a symbiotic relationship between GPM and the Hydrometeorological Testbed. The Hydrometeorological Testbed will use GPM data as an additional input for experimentation and demonstration, and GPM will obtain validation elements from the Hydrometeorological Testbed.”

AMS Call to Action: A Draft AMS Policy Statement on Water Resources in the 21st Century: “The provision of adequate freshwater resources for humans and ecosystems will be one of the most critical and potentially contentious issues facing society and governments at all levels during the 21st century. Water is fundamental to our lives … Water resource managers face daunting challenges with population growth and migration, land use changes, and pollution locally, nationally, and globally — problems likely to be exacerbated over the next several decades by climate change. In light of this developing water crisis, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) issues this statement as a call to action.”

External Guidance


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Primary Conclusions & Recommendations from the 2007 Meeting

1. HMT-West is still in an exploratory phase: we are still learning how to do research to operations and have not generated a data set sufficient to inform long-term decisions. Recommendation: Continue HMT-West operations at

a sustained level for several years beyond FY09; i.e. at levels comparable to FY08-FY09.


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2. Planning for the FY08 field season is on track. A number of refinements were discussed and will be acted upon. Recommendations: Phase-3 of the HMT mesonet will focus on

Placer County “group B” sites (per CN-RFC’s plan) but other sites will be surveyed. Consideration should be given towards placing one of the gap-filling radars (NSSL) in the lee of the Sierras.


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3. A proposal to reconfigure the HMT advisory structure with a smaller nationally focused advisory panel and newly formed regional implementation teams met with general agreement. However, more detail indicating the scope of their respective responsibilities, how they interact, etc., is needed before a final plan can be considered. Recommendation: Proper consideration will be given to the

plan when the aforementioned issues have been articulated and reviewed in an HMT Charter.


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4. A better job needs to be done to communicate the objectives of HMT: They are to improve QPE, QPF and hydrologic monitoring and forecasts, and to develop decision support tools that integrate new science (knowledge) with new models and observational data streams. Whereas the immediate beneficiary of HMT are NOAA’s frontline operational units (i.e. WFOs, RFCs and national centers), careful consideration and attention should be given to external stakeholders such as local, state and other federal entities. Recommendation: Carefully identify and articulate HMT’s objectives and

customers in the Charter.


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5. Recommendation: Future Advisory Panel meetings will be held in April to better respond to the PPBES process, increase prep-time for future field seasons and improve attendance.


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Response to 2007 Recommendations

• HMT Management Council implemented the HMT Management Action Plan

• HMT Management Action plan Memo 9_August_2007.pdf• HMT-West has been extended by 1-year (through FY10)• Mesonet was implemented; “executive decision” sent radar

to Debris Flow Project in southern CA• Charter not completed• Advisory Panel meeting held in May 2008

Building PartnershipsCurrent Structure

ESRL-PSD ESRL-GSD

NSSL NWS-OHD

NWS-CNRFC NWS Sacramento-WFO

NWS Monterey-WFO NWS Reno-WFO

NWS-Western Region NCEP-HPC

NESDIS-STAR NOHRSC

Advisory Panel(26 members)

Project ManagerTimothy Schneider

Chair of the Advisory Panel

HMTManagement Council

Gary Carter, Hydro Program ManagerMarty Ralph, ST&I Program Manager

A critical element: engaging local, state and federal stakeholders…

Changes to Advisory Panel Pending:

Smaller panel with National focusStandup “Regional Implentation Teams” (regional focus; give voice to non-NOAA partners)

Towards an HMT Charter…

A critical element: engaging local, state and federal stakeholders…

Changes to Advisory Panel Pending:

Smaller panel with National focusStandup “Regional Implentation Teams” (regional focus; give voice to non-NOAA partners)

Proposed Structure

Advisory PanelSmall with Broad/National Focus

Comprised of ~8 NOAA Members (Agencies)

RIT-WestFY2007

RIT-EastFY2008

RIT-NextFY-TBD

Regional Implementation TeamsDiverse Group with Regional Focus

Comprised of both NOAA & Stakeholders

Project ManagerTimothy Schneider

Chair of the Advisory Panel

HMTManagement Council

Gary Carter, Hydro Program ManagerMarty Ralph, ST&I Program Manager


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• Finalized by the end of June• HMT needs an identity: aka a logo• We need to define our mission and vision statements• What we do = 5 Major activity areas• How we execute HMT…

Towards an HMT Charter…


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The Process

• Build consensus in Advisory Panel

• Send recommendations to Management Council

• Monthly calls• Annual meetings• Workshops

• Assessment: Spring• Preparation: Summer-Fall• Deploy: Fall• Daily coordination calls• Crew deploys as needed

(IOPs; cost savings)• Automated instruments; real-

time displays

• Assessment: Spring• Preparation: Summer-Fall• Deploy: Fall• Daily coordination calls• Crew deploys as needed

(IOPs; cost savings)• Automated instruments; real-

time displays

Planning Execution


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Major Activity Areas1. Quantitative

Precipitation Estimation (QPE)

2. Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF)

3. Snow Information4. Hydrologic Applications

& Surface Processes5. Decision Support Tools

HMT: A National Testbed Strategy with HMT: A National Testbed Strategy with Regional ImplementationRegional Implementation

• Verification• Enhancing & Accelerating Research to Operations• Building partnerships

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Key Eastern U.S. Watershed

Other KeyU.S. Watershed

Fiscal Year

HMT-West

HMT-West Legacy

HMT-East

HMT-East Legacy

HMT-”Next”

Regions of Focus

NOAA Hydrology Program (Water Resources Data Assimilation)

NOAA Science and Technology Infusion Program (Hydrometeorology Testbed)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

West Coast/Russian River

Caljet Pacjet

Proof of concept

HMT Prototype

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Hydrometeorology Testbed Timeline


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HMT Publications

The publications have appeared in…

• Monthly Weather Review (12)• Journal of Hydrometeorology (6)• Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic

Technology (3)• Bulletin of the American Meteorological

Society (2)• Geophysical Research Letters (1)• Journal of Climate (1)• Water Management (1)• Weather and Forecasting (1)• Progress in Oceanography (1)• Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (1)• Journal of Applied Meteorology and

Climatology (1)

Lead authors* represent…

• ESRL Physical Sciences Division• ESRL Global Systems Division• NSSL• NCAR/Societal Impacts Program• USGS• Naval Postgraduate School

*Contributing authors represent an additional 10 or more institutions

Since 2000, a total of 30 papers have been published in the formal literature (“2007 & 2008 may not be up to date”)


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The Budget Picture

• FY08 (4 NOAA elements):– NOAA Program Funds: $2.2M– Other NOAA: $2.2M– Reimbursable: $0.2M

• FY09 Similar• FY10 Requested Increases Moving Forward (HYD+STI)• Preparing for FY11

– Coordinating with LFW– Satellite Coordination: NDE; GPM; SATB– Services Delivery Proving Ground

Briefed Dr. Rick Spinrad, AA for NOAA Research


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What’s New?

• Expanding Hydrological Efforts• Multisensor Integrated QPE - Q2• COSMIC Studies: moisture profiles over the ocean• Growing connections with the Satellite Community

– GPM (NOAA & NASA)– NDE (NESDIS)

• Barrier Jet Studies• Verification Studies• Interactions with THORPEX

– TIGGE– Coordinated WSR Flights

• HMT/IWRS Studies– Soil moisture network in AZ, and in the upper CO basin

• HMT Micro Projects– Radar/QPE studies in CO and AZ

• Discussions with NCEP • Lt. Governor Garamendi’s H2O 2.0 Initiative (w/Roger Bales)


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What’s Next?

• Revamped HMT web pages• HMT-East - FY10

– Planning Workshop: ~late summer

– Longer deployments– Allocating resources– QPF is, perhaps, more challengingR2O workshop & Annual Advisory Panel

Meeting• Expanding Hydrological Efforts• Implementing the Management Action Plan

– Revising the Advisory Structure– Standing up Major Activity Area Teams– Crafting Plans (June)

• HMT-West Legacy– R2O workshop– EFREP

Documents

May 22-23, 2008Annual Meeting of the HMT Advisory Panel 1 “If there is magic in this planet, it is contained in water... ” – Loren Eiseley