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MDGs Needs Assessment/Costing: Why MDGs-based Planning-2: Technical Issues. A Presentation by Barth T. Feese , Head, Costing Unit Office of the Senior Special Assistant to the President on MDGs, State House, Abuja. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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MDGs Needs Assessment/Costing: Why MDGs-based Planning-2: Technical Issues
A Presentation by Barth T. Feese, Head, Costing UnitOffice of the Senior Special Assistant to the President on MDGs, State House, Abuja.At MDGs Costing Seminar, Organised by the African Institute for Applied Economists, Enugu, on 17th March, 2010.
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Agenda
Introduction
Objectives of MDG needs assessments
Overview of different costing methodologies
The needs assessment approach: a practical illustration from the education sector
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Motivation
Needs Assessments aim to flip the question: FROM: How close can we get to Nigerias or Enugu States long-term goals under the current constraints?
TO: What will it take to achieve Nigerias or Enugu States long- term goals?
NOTE: Transformational Question
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Principles of Development Strategies that are Goal-basedCommon strategy todayGoal-based development strategy 1990 2005 2008 2015 MDG MDG Base Year Target Deadline
YEARYEAR? 1990 2005 2008 2015 MDG MDG Base Year Target Deadline
MDG targetLevel of MDG progress
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Agenda
Introduction
Objectives of MDG needs assessments
Overview of different costing methodologies
The needs assessment approach: a practical illustration from the education sector
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Objectives of an MDG Needs AssessmentAnswers the question: What will it take to achieve long-term goals, such as Nigerias 5th National Devt. Plan (mid-term implementation frame work for V20:2020, 7-point Agenda, Delta States 3-Point Agenda targets and the MDGs?Translate long term goals into operational targets Develop a strategy for increasing absorptive capacity Can be used as a framework for assessing needs of other relevant sectors for the countryStrengthens coherence between planning and budget processes and guides programming of expendituresProvides a monitoring and accountability frameworkSupports the national policy dialogue and negotiations with development partners
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Approach to Aligning National/States Devt Strategies with MDGsMDG needs assessment through 2015Long-term plan aligned with the MDGs targetsNational/States Development StrategyQuantify and aggregate sub-country level inputs needed to meet national goals
What & How MuchIdentify policies and institutions to meet nationally aggregated need
How ToInform NDP, 7-Point/3-Point Agenda (Delta) implementation, including MTEF Macro framework
What needs to be done right now?
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Core Questions Answered by a Needs AssessmentWho and where are the poor?Identify the target population for each sectorMap the locations of populations in need What needs to be done?Identify critical interventionsHow much?Estimate capital and recurrent costs Estimate infrastructure and human resource needsIdentify scale up path till target date, e.g. 2015
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
MDG Needs Assessment Approach
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Identification of Interventions (high impact/short time: Q/W)Specification of MDG Outcome Targets-2007 baseline, 2015 target and Scale-Up Paths (front/back loaded, linear)Estimation of Resource NeedsTarget population (macro assumptions: Total- 140,003,542, rural- 91,002,302 , urban- 49,001,240, growth rate- 3.2%, household size-4.8Specification of Coverage Targets (population served): sector assumptionsSpecification of Input Ratios (quantity or quality/efficiency)Unit Costing: macro assumptions- Exchange rate: N117/$, Inflation: 8%Review of Costing Results (realistic or affordable)Review of Development Outcomes (The MBB tool)Four excel sheets for assessing the impact of bottleneck reduction on morbidity and mortality. By imputing new frontier coverage figures into an epidemiometric model.
Stages in MDGs Costing Exercise
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Guiding Principles of MDG Needs AssessmentsPlan to relax absorptive capacity constraints through investments in human resources, infrastructure and management systems
Focus on interventions that require full or partial public financing
Undertake total, not incremental costing
Ensure maximum transparency so that assumptions can be adapted to states needs. No one-size-fits all!
Periodically revise targets/interventions based on new information and implementation of programs
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Suggested Investment ClustersRural development
Urban development
Health systems
Education
Gender equality
Environment
Science, technology and innovation
Cross-national infrastructure
Public sector management
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Table 1: Mapping of Sectors to the MDGs
GoalsSectorsDominant SectorsGoal 1: Eradicate Extreme Hunger and PovertyAll SectorsAgriculture and Health, Energy, RoadsGoal 2: Achieve Universal Primary EducationEducation, Energy and RoadsEducationGoal 3: Promote Gender Equality and Empower WomenAll SectorsEducationGoal 4: Reduce Child MortalityEnergy, Health and RoadsHealthGoal 5: Improve Maternal HealthEnergy, Health and RoadsHealthGoal 6: Combat HIV & AIDS, Malaria and other diseasesEnergy, Health and RoadsHealthGoal 7: Ensure Environmental SustainabilityEnergy, Environment, Housing, Roads, and Water and SanitationEnergy, Environment, Housing, and Water and Sanitation
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
UN Millennium Project Costing Models Agriculture and Rural Development Costing ToolEnergy Costing ToolEnvironment Needs Assessment ToolHousing: Slum Upgrading Needs Assessment ToolRoads/Infrastructure Needs Assessment Tool Water and Sanitation Needs Assessment Tool Other Costing ToolsEducation Policy and Strategy Simulation Model (EPSSim), developed by UNESCO for Education SectorMarginal Budgeting for Bottlenecks (MBB), developed jointly by UNICEF, the World Bank and WHO for Health Sector
MDGs Costing Models (Customised for Nigeria)
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Agenda
Introduction
Objectives of MDG based needs assessments
Overview of different costing methodologies
The MDG needs assessment approach: a practical illustration from the education sector
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Limitations of Multi-Sectoral Needs AssessmentsQuestion addressed: Which interventions are needed across sectors to achieve the Goals, and what are the associated requirements in terms of human resources, infrastructure, and financing?
Limitations:Time intensiveHigh data needs Cross-sectoral dynamics require iterative adjustment of coverage targetsMacroeconomic dynamics need to be modeled with the help of separate toolsComplementary policies and institutional reforms are not included
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Comparison with ICOR-based Approaches
Question addressed: What aggregate level of investment is needed to meet the income poverty goal?
Limitations compared to needs assessment:Human resource and infrastructure requirements cannot be estimatedNo guidance to programming public expendituresNo separation of public and private investments or composition of investmentsNo inclusion of MDG interventions that do not have a direct impact on growthBased on historical incrementaI cost /output ratios (ICORs) and poverty elasticities that apply only to marginal changes
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Comparison with Approaches Based on Input-outcome Elasticities
Question addressed: What aggregate level of investment is required to meet individual Goals?
Limitations compared to needs assessment:Can only model a small number of aggregate variables across few sectors Limited by number of variables and equations necessary to close the models mathematicallyNo guidance to programming public expendituresHuman resource and infrastructure requirements not estimatedCould lead to double-counting of interventions across sectorsBased on historical elasticities that apply only to marginal changes
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Comparison with Approaches Based on Aggregate Unit Costs
Question addressed: What is the gap between current expenditures and those required to achieve each Goal?
Limitations compared to needs assessment:Historical/current unit costs inadequately estimate future expenditures No guidance to programming expenditures Human resource and infrastructure requirements not estimatedNo differentiation between capital and operating costsAddress only a subset of interventions within a sector
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Agenda
Introduction
Objectives of MDG based needs assessments
Overview of different costing methodologies
The MDG needs assessment approach: a practical illustration from the education sector
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
MDG Needs Assessment MethodologyUN Millennium Project
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Education Needs Assessment Approach (1)TOTAL COSTSStudents reached by interventionsCost components for key interventions Demographic data
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Education Needs Assessment Approach (2)Direct and indirect financial costs _Estimation of teachers needed
Estimation of classrooms neededCapacity Requirements__= Total Education Needs
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Key Assumptions for Education Needs AssessmentInterventions: Comprehensive set of interventions to achieve primary education, and literacy on the demand and supply side
Targets: Coverage targets should aim at meeting MDGs for entire population in need
Investment model: Service delivery models should reflect local needs and education structure; unit costs should reflect costs for reaching hard-to-reach populations.
Financing: User fees should be eliminated for primary education
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Interventions Needed to Meet Universal Primary Education (UPE) GoalDirect Primary Education interventions: infrastructure, human resources, learning materials, demand side interventions, etc
Secondary Education interventions because:Availability of secondary education increases parents incentive to send children to primary school
Secondary school graduates are needed to meet supply of primary school teachers
Adult literacy programsRadio programmes
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Primary School Interventions (1/2)* Not included in MP preliminary cost estimates
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Primary School Interventions (2/2)
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Primary Education MDG Targets in Education Tool
Primary completion rates to reach 100 percent by 2015
Gender parity achieved by 2005
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Post-Primary Interventions and Targets
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Estimating Resource Needs: Education Needs Assessment Tool
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Key Drivers of Cost and VariationThe key drivers of cost and variation across needs assessments are:
Differences in population in need
Differences in choice of interventions
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Thinking About Nigerias Needs What are the core set of interventions from the demand and supply side?
Are there additional interventions needed for specific regions/sub-populations (State-specific)?
How does the overall goal of UPE link to annual operational targets of enrolment and completion?
How will targets for secondary education be set, and linked to increasing primary coverage and increasing human resource needs in other sectors?
What are the important capital and recurrent expenditures that need to be scaled up to achieve the Vision 20:2020/7-point Agenda/State Agenda/MDG targets?
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Nigeria MDG Costing Summary of FindingsA three-year partnership (2006-08) with key MDAs, NPC, BOF and UNDP to establish cost and funding requirements for the achievement of the MDGs in 8 sectors. Results published in 2009Total cumulative investments of $248bn are needed between 2007 and 2015On an annual basis, the cost rises from $15bn in 2007 to $43bn in 2015An annual average of $28bn (N4 trillion)Average annual per capita cost of $164 This is higher than other Sub-Saharan African countries due to a lower baseline, more ambitious targets and infrastructural challengesDetails in Tables 1 & 2
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Table 1: Aggregate and Per Capita MDG Cost and Distribution by Economic Composition
YearAnnual TotalRecurrentCapitalPer Capita(US$ b)(US$ b)(US$ b)(US$)200715.368.756.61106.30200817.3610.416.95116.43200919.6512.217.44127.72201022.6614.608.05142.67201126.1717.169.01159.66201230.1119.9210.19178.04201334.0923.1010.99195.28201438.8226.5212.30215.49201543.3329.3114.03233.11Cumulative247.54161.9785.571,474.70Annual Average27.5018.009.51163.86
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Table 2: Sectoral Distribution of Aggregate Cost of Achieving the MDGs
SectorCumulative (2007-2015)(US$b) Annual Average(US$ b)Share(%)Agriculture55.126.1222.3Education48.045.3419.4Energy38.844.3215.7Environment1.770.200.7Health34.943.8814.1Housing6.420.712.6Roads39.744.4216.1Water and Sanitation22.682.529.2
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
MDGs Costing
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
Funding gaps: Given existing resources, an average funding gap of around $6bn per year is predicted to remain:Scaling-up options include domestic resource mobilization, Internally-generated revenue by States and Local Governments, and creating the enabling environment for sustained Foreign Direct InvestmentAlternative strategies for public-private partnerships to increase infrastructure investmentCoordinating development partner interventions to improve the effectiveness of aid
MDGs Costing Summary (Contd)
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
MDGs Costing: Next StepsIntegrating the costing methodology into the planning processScaling-up to contribute to 7-Point Agenda and Vision 2020Integrating the costing into the budgetary processesThrough the MTSS and annual budgetsMaking ongoing use of the capacity and skills that weve generated in the key MDAsStepping-down costing to States and Local GovernmentsHelping State Governments to prepare realistic investment paths for 7-Point Agenda and Vision 2020Building capacity in State MDAs for costing of annual budgets and sector plansIntegrating costing into planning and budgetary processes at the sub-national level
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
*Reaching MDG4 in NigeriaNew estimates
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Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First
*Reaching MDG5 in NigeriaNew
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