Cross Platform : measuring granular media impact to drive sales growth

CIJU NAIRVP Analytic ConsultingMillward Brown@cijutr

SATYA MENONChief ScientistMillward Brown@satya_menon

Marketers live in the world where…MARKET DIVERSITY

MEDIA FRAGMENTATION

MULTIPLE BRANDS & VARIANTS

SALES vs. BRAND BUILDING

How do we manage these most efficiently for best business returns ?

Spend on

Variant A

We need to build

the Brand

Invest in TV vs Digital

Market X is biggest, needs

most investment

How does Variant B

benefit from A

Modeling Approaches

TOP DOWN APPROACH• Nested Dynamic Bayesian Models• Vector Auto Regressive Models

BOTTOM UP APPROACH• Agent Based Modeling

MEDIA SILOED APPROACH• Digital Attribution Modeling

Top Down Approach Bottom Up Approach

Historical analysis with granularity teased out of the top-down model

Consumer level framework of how consumers make purchase

decisions based on consumer behavior

Sales

MediaTrade

ActivitySampling

TV Radio Digital

Input Media Consumption, U&A data, etc.

Defining Demographics

# of hours each media is consumed + other information

# of hours each media is consumed + other information

Targeting based on Media /Marketing Activity

Sales Sales

Sales Prediction Agent based Targeting

Con

trib

uti

on

du

e t

o -

Going from Macro optimization …..

…to Micro Optimization

Both Macro and Micro perspectives are critical for investment allocation decisions!

Trade Activity8.8%

Owned Media2.4%

Sampling

3.7%

Events & Sponsorship

11.9%Competitor

Trade**-4.5%

CollegiateMarketing

1.7%Paid Media

8.0%

WebTV

1.0%

Radio1.8%

Online Displa

y1.4%

Online Social0.4%

OOH

0.1%

Cinema

1.2%

TPR -0.2%

Distribution-4.3%

On-Premise

4.1%Faceboo

k1.4%

Organic Search2.6%

Twitter0.3%

Total Folder4.4%

TPR1.8%

Total Display

2.6%

Culture2.3%

Sports2.1%

Brand Buildin

g 1.4%

Opinion

Leaders 1.6%

International Series

2.1%

YouTube

1.5%

RB.COM0.9%

WORB0.5%

MOTO0.7% Athlet

es0.9%

F10.7%

Flanker

0.1%Launches

.4%

Monster / Burn-1.1%

Red Bull Launche

s0.7%

Incremental Sales 36%

Base Sales 64%

Earned Media4.3%

Cartoon

1.5%

Most analysis tells us the ‘Total contributions’ from a particular Marketing element

But ‘Line Managers’ need more granularity

across media types….

WHAT PROGRAM? WHAT

CREATIVE?

WHAT COPY

LENGTH?

WHAT NETWORK?

WHAT DAY

PART?

WHAT FORMAT?

BUDGET FOR TV ADVERTISING

$10MILLION

DYNAMIC BAYESIAN MODELS

CAPTURES IMPACT WITH A GOOD DEGREE OF SENSITIVITY

HYPERCUBECASCADES THE CONTRIBUTIONS TO

MORE GRANULAR MARKETING ACTIVITY

The Idea….

Sales impact measured at weekly level

Uses activity levels to inform on performance at a granular level

Medium

Low High

PROMOTION

DISPLAY

FEATURE3rd PARTY SAMPLING

1-1 SAMPLING

SEASONAL

SAMPLING

COPY LENGTH

DAY PART

PROGRAM

Contribution due to TV Advertising

20%

Contribution due to Sampling

10%

Hypercube approach allows you to slice the data within each element of marketing mix

SAMPLING

TRADE ACTIVITY

TV ADVERTISING

Granular inputs provide more actionable insights

COPY LENGTH

PROGRAM

DAY PARTC

REA

TIV

ES

TY

LE

NETW

OR

K

FO

RM

AT

Decisions on copy length @ what day part

format + program + network

creative style + program

copy length + format + day part +

network

15s 30s 60s

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

.

.

.

.Week N

COPY LENGTH

MORNING NOON EVENING

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

.

.

.

.Week N

DAY PART

VOICEDANCING WITH

STARSAMERICAN

IDOL

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

.

.

.

.Week N

GAME OF THRONES

SATURDAYNIGHT LIVE

PROGRAM

THEMATIC FUNCTIONAL PROMOTIONAL

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

.

.

.

.Week N

CREATIVE

ABC CBS NBC

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

.

.

.

.Week N

NATG

NETWORK

COMPARATIVE TESTIMONIAL CELEBRITY

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

.

.

.

.Week N

FORMAT

BUDGET FOR TV ADVERTISING$10MILLION

Why does this work?

• Holistic approach that allows to compare ROIs of all marketing activity at granular level for better decisions

• More tractability and managerial relevance than other approaches that requires many models, constraints and reconciliation

• Dynamic weekly coefficients for all marketing drivers

• Annual activity summaries could be flawed, granular imputations more accurate

Key Benefits

Helps get more actionable insights

Display Promotion Feature FSI Circular e-circular

Events

Sampling

Trade Activity

TV

Digital

Enables MMM to now allocate from Macro to Micro level

Sports Culture Movies Brand Building Sponsorship

Channel 1 Channel 2Campaign 1 60s 30sCampaign 2

Current MixOptimized Mix

Google BingSearch Display TestMobile

Offseason Season3rd party National Local1-1