Measuring Public Opinion

• Sampling Techniques–Representative sampling

• Most important principle in sampling = randomness

– Every person should have a known chance, and especially an equal chance, of being sampled

Margin of Error = the range of percentage points in which the sample accurately reflects the population

Measuring Public Opinion• Intensity

– A measure of how strongly an individual holds a particular opinion

• Latency– Political opinions that are held but not yet expressed

• Salience – An individual’s belief that an issue is important or

relevant to him or her

• Manifest Opinion– A widely shared and consciously held view

Measuring Public Opinion• Problems with Polls

–Sampling Error–Polling Questions–Push Polls

• “Political Telemarketing”• to push away from a candidate

–Telephone Polling Problems• Over ¼ have no landline• People unresponsive

– Internet Polling–Quota Sampling

Selection bias and non-response bias

Quota Sampling

http://www.math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/wk4/lecture/case2.html

http://www.math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/wk4/lecture/case1.html

Measuring Public Opinion• Public Opinion Polls

– A snapshot of the opinions and preferences of the people at a specific moment in time and as expressed in response to a specific question

• An event can change this view suddenly– May reveal a latent position

– Sampling error• The difference between a sample’s results and the true result

if the entire population has been interviewed – due to sample not being chosen scientifically

– As elections near pollsters often change from eligible voters to likely voters

• Can cause a dramatic change

Measuring Public OpinionUsing scientific methods modern polls have a high probability of being correct using small sample sizes (often about 1500)

Measuring Public Opinion• Poll Questions can be influenced by:

– Type of question• Yes/No questions

– Sometimes difficult to indicate true position

– Influence of words/phrases• Ex. “…fighting terrorism”, “…helping children”

– Order questions are asked– Interaction with interviewer

Measuring Public Opinion

Measuring Public Opinion

Public Opinion and the Political Process

• Politicians – Source of power when dealing with other

politicians– Helps shape campaigns around issues

identified as most important

• Voters– Use to determine who to vote for, esp. in

primaries

• Contributors – Who is viable

“What I want, is to get done what the people desire to be done, and the question for me is how to find that out exactly.”

Public Opinion and the Political Process

Latent

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government

• Political Ideology

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government

• Liberalism

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government

• Liberalism

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government

• Liberalism

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government

• Conservatism

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government

• Traditional Conservatives

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government

• Social Conservatives (New Right)

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government

• Conservatism