Learn from Yesterday…Understand Today…Plan for Tomorrow

Melissa IndependentSchool District

Demographic Report

2016-17

Economic Conditions – DFW Area (December 2016)

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UnemploymentRate

0.2%

112,800 new jobsNational rate 1.5%

Job Growth

3.3%3,350 more

starts than 2015

AnnualHome Starts

29,892

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

U.S. 4.5%Texas 4.6%

DFW MSA 3.7%Collin County 3.4%

DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q16

3* Based on additional research by TD Staff

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future1 Frisco ISD 2,639 2,542 3,569 7,9312 Denton ISD 1,971 2,103 2,420 17,0333 Prosper ISD 2,569 2,050 4,675 27,1424 Lewisville ISD 1,313 1,387 1,468 4,4945 Northwest ISD 1,670 1,282 2,207 21,0916 Dallas ISD 1,574 1,223 2,233 6,0297 Little Elm ISD 1,088 1,099 1,575 4,2508 Eagle Mt.-Saginaw ISD 768 856 1,277 19,8559 Rockwall ISD 984 850 1,887 8,116

10 Keller ISD 778 788 970 1,74611 Crowley ISD 714 783 662 9,71412 McKinney ISD 789 723 1,610 5,96513 Mansfield ISD 763 708 898 6,61214 Wylie ISD 798 707 1,042 4,50015 Forney ISD 688 552 884 14,23216 Allen ISD 570 515 1,052 1,59717 Coppell ISD 461 483 588 32918 Waxahachie ISD 447 477 801 9,81719 Plano ISD 463 453 1,030 2,66020 Midlothian ISD 553 445 1,295 19,947

27 Argyle ISD 321 352 617 5,10928 Melissa ISD 284 337 889 4,941*29 Aledo ISD 333 298 848 15,574

Existing Home Inventory (2.5 Month’s Supply)

44%

Melissa RHSD Housing MarketYear Over Year Comparisons

19%

14%

18%

11%

YTD Sales(302 YTD Sales Dec 2016)

Number of Listings(62 Dec 2016)

Average Price($271,715 Dec 2016)

Median Price($262,850 Dec 2016)

Days on the Market(49 Days)

72%

Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center 4

Melissa ISD Home Sales by Type2016 Home Sales by Transaction Type

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• Melissa ISD had nearly 630 home sales in 2016, and roughly 49% were of new homes

• The average district new home sale price in 2016 was $289,131• The average district resale home sale price in 2016 was $265,237

New Home Sales48.97%

Existing Home Sales48.81%

Foreclosures0.95%

REO Sales1.27%

2016 Melissa ISDHome Sales

by Type

Source: Collin County Deed Transactions

New Housing Activity

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• Melissa ISD closed 337 new homes in 2016, a rise of 15.8% over 2015• In 3Q16, the district closed the most homes in a single quarter in more

than 6 years• Melissa ISD started 282 new homes in 2016

Melissa ISD

Source: Metrostudy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140 Starts Closings

Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 20161Q 26 39 57 44 86 1Q 29 50 33 83 592Q 62 36 48 82 71 2Q 33 59 61 65 803Q 67 50 91 88 77 3Q 44 43 48 74 1124Q 44 42 90 115 48 4Q 43 44 78 69 86

Total 199 167 286 329 282 Total 149 196 220 291 337

District Housing Overview

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Future Subdivisions

Active Subdivisions

• Melissa ISD has more than 850 lots available to build on

• The district has nearly 5,000 planned future lots

Residential ActivityLiberty

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Liberty• 1,454 total lots• 524 future lots• 648 homes occupied• 252 vacant developed lots• 26 homes under construction• Phase 4 (203 lots) delivered in Oct. 2016

and beginning homebuilding• Phase 5 (300 lots) plans under review

with city• Groundwork starting Sept. 2017• Lots delivering Sept. 2018• Building 100 homes per year

• Current student yield: 0.86

Residential Activity Villages of Melissa

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Villages of Melissa• 1,088 total lots• 489 future lots• 428 homes occupied• 154 vacant developed lots• 6 homes under construction• Phase 2A (49 lots) and 2B (88 lots)

delivered and homebuilding• Groundwork underway in Phase 3 (138

lots) and Phase 4 (167 lots) developer estimates delivery of lots early 2017

• Current student yield: 0.81

Groundwork Underway

Residential ActivityNorth Creek Estates

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North Creek Estates• 1,003 total lots• 400 future lots• 427 homes occupied• 124 vacant developed lots• 33 homes under construction• Phase 1 (108 lots) delivered summer

2016 and homebuilding• Phase 2 (85 lots) delivered late 2016• Additional phase of appx. 400 lots

preliminary plat submitted Nov 2016 • Developer anticipated groundwork

starting by early 2017• Delivering first lots by end of 2017

• Current student yield: 0.77

Appx. 400 future lots

Anna ISD

Proposed School Location

Residential ActivityCity of Melissa

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Creek Crossing• 311 total future lots• Groundwork underway on Phase 1

(98 lots) nearing completion• Delivered lots December 2016 Magnolia Ridge

• 174 total lots• 81 future lots• 16 homes occupied• 58 vacant developed lots• 3 homes under construction• Phase 1 (93 lots) delivered and homebuilding• Phase 2 (81 lots) groundwork starting early

2017 pending city approval• Current student yield: 0.50

North Creek Meadows• 42 total future lots• Lots have delivered and awaiting

city approval for homebuilding

Proposed School Location

Residential Activity Brookside Addition

Brookside• 296 total future lots• Preliminary Plat approved July 2016• Phase 1 Final plat under review

• Approval expected early 2017

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Residential ActivityEstates of Willow Wood

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Estates of Willow Wood• 826 total lots• 636 future lots• 185 vacant developed lots• 4 homes under construction• Phase 1 (190 lots) delivered in June

2016 and beginning homebuilding• Future phases still in planning stages

McKinney ISD

Future SubdivisionAuburndale

Auburndale• 46 acres• 235 total future lots• Final plat for Phase 1 (125 lots)

under review with city • Early grading permit has been issued

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Retail space included in development

Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

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• Melissa ISD will reach more than 3,000 students by 2018• 5 year growth = 1,657 students• 2021/22 enrollment = 4,277• 10 year growth = 3,380 students• 2026/27 enrollment = 6,000

Year (Oct) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal

Growth % Growth2012/13 9 25 130 146 130 126 125 124 143 144 132 114 133 123 90 1,6942013/14 6 21 183 139 163 148 140 132 142 150 147 142 119 136 127 1,895 201 11.9%2014/15 10 18 154 187 170 179 166 167 153 156 176 174 154 123 132 2,119 224 11.8%2015/16 20 22 166 164 210 197 198 175 188 175 164 202 182 156 119 2,338 219 10.3%2016/17 15 30 169 182 200 225 219 222 183 209 198 203 210 200 155 2,620 282 12.1%2017/18 15 30 212 180 216 222 250 244 241 205 233 234 213 214 196 2,905 285 10.9%2018/19 15 30 220 223 212 238 249 280 273 268 225 277 244 219 210 3,183 278 9.6%2019/20 15 30 251 236 261 232 265 279 308 304 299 271 289 256 216 3,512 329 10.3%2020/21 15 30 256 267 278 287 259 296 307 343 338 362 283 299 251 3,871 359 10.2%2021/22 15 30 282 279 314 305 330 290 328 341 380 406 389 294 294 4,277 406 10.5%2022/23 15 30 296 303 328 345 344 347 320 365 379 458 428 405 297 4,660 383 9.0%2023/24 15 30 299 318 345 360 380 377 383 356 405 436 479 444 413 5,040 380 8.2%2024/25 15 30 303 329 356 397 405 414 416 426 395 480 461 497 446 5,370 330 6.5%2025/26 15 30 311 333 377 397 444 437 457 463 473 466 505 479 503 5,690 320 6.0%2026/27 15 30 330 340 378 423 442 483 483 509 514 554 490 524 485 6,000 310 5.4%

Ten Year ForecastBy Campus

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• McKillop Elementary may enroll more than 900 students by 2018 and more than 1,000 students by 2019

• Melissa Middle School may enroll more than 760 students by 2018 and more than 1,000 by 2020

• Melissa High School may have more than 1,000 students by 2019

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSCampus 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27

HARRY MCKILLOP ELEMENTARY 821 875 938 1,025 1,133 1,225 1,317 1,367 1,430 1,463 1,516ELEMENTARY TOTAL 821 875 938 1,025 1,133 1,225 1,317 1,367 1,430 1,463 1,516Elementary Absolute Change 42 54 63 87 108 92 92 50 63 33 53Elementary Percent Change 5.39% 6.58% 7.20% 9.28% 10.54% 8.12% 7.51% 3.80% 4.61% 2.31% 3.62%MELISSA RIDGE INTERMEDIATE 441 494 529 544 555 620 691 757 819 881 925INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL TOTAL 441 494 529 544 555 620 691 757 819 881 925Intermdiate Absolute Change 68 53 35 15 11 65 71 66 62 62 44Intermediate Percent Change 18.23% 12.02% 7.09% 2.84% 2.02% 11.71% 11.45% 9.55% 8.19% 7.57% 4.99%MELISSA MIDDLE SCHOOL 590 679 766 911 988 1,049 1,064 1,144 1,237 1,393 1,506MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL 590 679 766 911 988 1049 1064 1144 1237 1393 1506Middle School Absolute Change 63 89 87 145 77 61 15 80 93 156 113Middle School Percent Change 11.95% 15.08% 12.81% 18.93% 8.45% 6.17% 1.43% 7.52% 8.13% 12.61% 8.11%MELISSA HIGH SCHOOL 768 857 950 1,032 1,195 1,383 1,588 1,772 1,884 1,953 2,053HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL 768 857 950 1,032 1,195 1,383 1,588 1,772 1,884 1,953 2,053High School Absolute Change 109 89 93 82 163 188 205 184 112 69 100High School Percent Change 16.54% 11.59% 10.85% 8.63% 15.79% 15.73% 14.82% 11.59% 6.32% 3.66% 5.12%DISTRICT TOTALS 2,620 2,905 3,183 3,512 3,871 4,277 4,660 5,040 5,370 5,690 6,000District Absolute Change 282 285 278 329 359 406 383 380 330 320 310District Percent Change 12.06% 10.88% 9.57% 10.34% 10.22% 10.49% 8.95% 8.15% 6.55% 5.96% 5.45%

Future Facilities Planning

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New Boundary Criteria1. Attendance areas should be largely

contiguous and create clear divisions of boundaries such as highways, subdivisions, bodies of water and natural land marks

2. Neighborhoods should be assigned to the same school

3. Transportation routes should be as efficient as possible, giving consideration to minimal ride times within established boundaries

4. Attendance zone plans should be designed to serve the district 3 to 5 years without additional boundary changes

5. Allow for initially smaller school populations in schools with higher than anticipated growth rates

Estimated Build-out Needs• 4-6 Elementary Schools• 2 Middle Schools• 1 High School

• 3 elementary school locations have been determined

• 4th elementary location is in the planning stages

• 2nd middle school locations will be considered as part of a 10-15 year plan for the district

Summary

• Collin County’s unemployment rate is currently below 3.5%.

• Collin County will continue to see housing grow north due to the low unemployment rate and corporate relocations in Plano/Irving.

• In 3Q16, the district closed the most new homes in a single quarter in more than 5 years.

• District housing sales are up more than 19% over last year.

• Melissa ISD added roughly 280 students this fall.

• MISD can expect an increase of approximately 1,650 students during the next 5 years.

• 2021/22 enrollment projection: 4,277.

• MISD is projected to enroll 6,000 students for the 2026/27 school year.

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