Met brief for Mon Mar 0302 Mar 2014

Rennie Selkirk with Lynn Harvey and Lenny PfisterCURRENT SITUATION (8 AM Sun):

TS Faxai: near 9N 150E; slightly better organized; slow moving to NAirfield – past 12 hours: NE winds to 21; G29; min CIG 014, short periods

with no CIG

FLIGHT OUTLOOK: Not good: issues of both ceiling and crosswindOnly slightly better outlook if TS stays in placeWorth a look again later today (1 PM) to see how storm is both deepening and

movingConfidence in models is still low, though improving

wind cloud cover (base) precip

Takeoff 1:45 AM~16 UT NE20G29 BKN015

BKN025 VCSH

midflight 10 AM – 3 PM

UA zone may be impacted by deep convection in storm rainbands particularly at beginning of flight

Landing 6 PM~08 UT

N20G28 (18XW)

Best 10XW if TS stays put

- At best, short periods of no CIG - Marginal improvement if TS tracks farther east than expected

VCSH Slight chance of TS

JTWC Storm Track7 AM Sunday

Closest approach 257 nm at 4 PM Monday

Current IR: 2232 UT 01 Mar

TS Faixa slowly moving slightly W of N

GFS surface fcststakeoff / landing

Mon 4 AM Mon 10 PMUA zone may be impacted by

deep convection in storm rainbands

N.B.: not correct flight track

NAVGEM surface fcststakeoff / landing

Mon 4 AM Mon 10 PM

UA zone may be impacted by deep convection in storm

rainbandsparticularly at beginning of flight

N.B.: not correct flight track

Sounding: observed, forecast

Some uncertainty in convective instability and depth of wet layer in

fcst sounding

Sat PM obs

7 PM Mon

WRF 15-km model

Icing probably not a factor

GFS 500 RH at 10 PM tomorrow(worst case scenario)

Last 3 JTWC forecasts agree, but because of weak steering winds as of 0Z, mar 2, confidence in track is still low.

GFS forecast Guam winds (assumes TC moves with GFS; GFS is a bit slower and further west (closer to Guam) than model consensus, but is not too far off.

Time Wdir Wspd Xwind Flight 14030118 46.2 23.0 7.8 TO today 14030200 47.9 23.4 7.314030206 43.1 22.4 8.714030212 37.2 23.6 11.4 Landing today14030218 24.9 26.6 15.8 TO tomorrow14030300 21.7 24.6 17.1814030306 355.1 28.17 26.614030312 344.1 25.63 25.4 Landing tomorrow14030318 320.1 27.6 26.6 TO Tuesday (TAILWIND)14030400 319.7 23.3 22.4 (TAILWIND)14030406 320.4 20.1 19.4 (TAILWIND)14030412 330.0 16.9 16.8 Landing Tuesday (TAILWIND)14030418 333.0 15.8 15.8 TO Wednesday (TAILWIND Comp .79 knots)14030400 353.5 12.9 12.3

Wind conditions improve from this point. Thinking is that

Tailwind is nonzero when wdir is less than 336.

Longer Range Forecast, ceilings

•This depends on whether storm moves as progged by JTWC, confidence still low.•Tuesday flight – TO, isolated showers, chances of bkn at 1500 about 40%•Tuesday flight – Landing, similar to TO.•Wednesday flight – TO, isolated showers, chances of bkn at 1500 about 30%•Wednesday flight – landing, isolated showers, chances of bkn at 1500 about 30%.•Thursday and on. Still moisture at the low levels, so cannot discount the possibility of low ceilings. Ceilings below 1000 are unlikely after Monday.