1

Methodology to model the future energy scenario for China

Kejun JIANGKjiang@eri.org.cn

Energy Research Institute, China

UNFCCC Workshop on emissions projections of Annex I Parties

6-8 September 2004Wissenschaftszentrum Bonn

ERI, ChinaERI, China

2

Framework of IPAC

ERI, ChinaERI, China

IPAC-SGM

IPAC-AIM/tech

IPAC-Emission

IPAC/Tech

IPAC-TIMER

IPAC/AIM-Local

Energy demand and supplyPrice/investmentEconomic impactMedium/long-term analysis

Medium/short term analysisTechnology assessmentDetailed technology flow

Region analysisMedium/short analysisEnergy demand and supplyTechnology policy

IPAC-MATERIAL

Energy demand and supplyFull range emissionPrice, resource, technologyMedium-long term analysisEconomic impact

Environment industryPollutant emissionMedium/long-term analysis

Technology developmentEnvironment impactTechnology policy

AIM-air IPAC-health

Energy demand and supplyPrice/investmentMedium/long-term analysis

3

Understand future energy: a multiple model approach

IPAC-AIM/technology model: Bottom-up model for China

IPAC-emission model: global model IPAC-SGM: CGE model IPAC-Ele: power generation model IPAC-AIM/transport IPAC-AIM/local: regional model for China

4

Linkage in IPAC

Common parameters

Bottom-up modelAIM/TechMESSAGEAIM/Local

Top-DownSGMTIMERIGEM

IPAC-e

Technology strategy

Environment economyEnergy Strategy

sectors

Energy and Emission scenario

Dynamic economy

General equilibrium

Parameter

Common scenario

Regions/Beijing

IPAC-Air

IPAC-Health

5

ERI: IPAC-AIM/Technology model

Bottom-up model for China 26 sectors Least cost option model More than 500 technologies Medium-term scenario(2030)

6Structure of IPAC- AIM/ Technology model

Energy Energy Technology Energy Service

- Oil- Coal- Gas- Solar- (Electricity)

- Boiler- Power generation- Blast furnace- Air conditioner- Automobile

- Heating- Lighting- Steel products- Cooling- Transportation

Energy Database for China Technology Database for China

- Population growth- Economic growth- Industrial structure- Employees- Lifestyle

- Energy type- Energy price- Energy constraints- CO2 emission factor

- Technology price- Energy consumption- Service supplied- Share- Lifetime

Socio-economic Scenario for China

Service DemandsTechnology Selection

Energy ConsumptionCO2 Emissions

Structure of IPAC-AIM/Technology Model

7

Classification Technologies (equipment)& Steel Coke oven, Sintering machine, Blast furnace, Open hearth furnace (OH), Basic oxygen furnace (BOF), AC-electric arc

furnace, DC-electric arc furnace, Ingot casting machine, Continuous casting machine, Continuous casting machine withrolling machine, steel rolling machine, Continuous steel rolling machine, Equipment of coke dry quenching, Equipmentof coke wet quenching, Electric power generated with residue pressure on top of blast furnace (TRT), Equipment ofcoke oven gas, OH gas and BOF gas recovery, Equipment of co-generation.

errous metal Aluminum production with sintering process, Aluminum production with combination process, Aluminum with Bayer,Electrolytic aluminum with upper-insert cell, Electrolytic aluminum with side-insert cell, crude copper production withflash furnace, crude copper production with electric furnace, Blast furnace, Reverberator furnace, Lead smelting-sintering in blast furnace, Lead smelting with closed blast furnace, Zinc smelting with wet method, Zinc smelting withvertical pot method.

ing materials Cement: Mechanized shaft kiln, Ordinary shaft kiln, Wet process kiln, Lepol kiln, Ling dry kiln, Rotary kiln with pro-heater, dry process rotary kiln with pre-calciner, Self-owned electric power generator, Electric power generator withresidue heat; Brick & Tile: Hoffman kiln, Tunnel kiln;Lime: Ordinary shaft kiln, Mechanized shaft kiln; Glass: Floating process, Vertical process, Colburn process, Smelter.

ical industry Equipment of synthetic ammonia production: Converter, Gasification furnace, Gas-making furnace, Synthetic column,Shifting equipment of sulphur removing; Equipment of caustic soda production: Electronic cell with graphite process,Two-stage effects evaporator, Multi-stage effects evaporator, Equipment of rectification, Ion membrane method;Calcium Carbine production: Limestone calciner, Closed carbine furnace, Open carbine furnace, Equipment of residueheat recovery; Soda ash production: Ammonia & salt water preparation, limestone calcining, distillation column, filter;Fertilizer production: Equipment of organic products production, Equipment of residue heat utilization

chemical Industry Facilities of atmospheric & vacuum distillation, Facilities of rectification, Facilities of catalyzing & cracking, Facilitiesof cracking with hydrogen adding, Facilities of delayed coking, Facilities of light carbon cracking, Sequential separator,Naphtha cracker, de-ethane separator, diesel cracker, de-propane cracker, facilities of residue heat utilization fromethylene.

-making Cooker, facilities of distillation, facilities of washing, facilities of bleaching, evaporator, crusher, facilities of de-water,facilities of finishing, facilities of residue heat utilization, facilities of black liquor recovery, Co-generator, Backpressure electric power generator, condensing electric power generator.

e Cotton weaving process, Chemical fiber process, Wool weaving & textile process, Silk process, Printing & dyeingprocess, Garment making, Air conditioner, Lighting, Facilities of space heating.

inery Ingot process: Cupola, Electric arc furnace, fan; Forging process: coal-fired pre-heater, Gas-fired pre-heater, Oil-firedpre-heater, Steam hammer, Electric-hydraulic hammer, Pressing machine; Facilities of heat processing: Coal-fired heatprocessing furnace, Oil-fired heat processing furnace, Gas-fired heat processing furnace, Electric processing furnace;Cutting process: Ordinary cutting, high speed cutting.

tion Diesel engine, Electric induct motorng works Tractor, Other agricultural machineultural products process Diesel engine, Electric induct motor, processing machine, coal-fired facilities.ry Diesel engine, Electric induct motor.al husbandry Diesel engine, Electric induct motor, Other machines. heating in resident Heat supplying boiler in thermal power plant, Boiler of district heating, Dispersed boiler, Small coal-fired stove, Electric

heater, Brick bed linked with stove (Chinese KANG).ng in resident Air conditioner, Electric fan.ing in resident Incandescent lamp, Fluorescent lamp, Kerosene lamp.ing & Hot water innt

Gas burner, bulk coal-fired stove, briquette-fired stove, Kerosene stove, Electric cooker, cow dung-fired stove,firewood-fired stove, methane-fired stove.

ic Appliance Television, Cloth washing machine, Refrigerator, others.Space heating in service sector Heat supplying boiler in the thermal power plant, Boiler of district heating, dispersed boiler, Electric heater.

ng System of central air conditioner, Air conditioner, Electric fan.ing Incandescent lamp, fluorescent lamp.ing & Hot water Gas burner, Electric cooker, Hot water pipeline, Coal-fired stove.ic Appliance Duplicating machine, computer, Elevator, others.nger & freight transport Railway (passenger & freight): Steam locomotive, Internal combustion engine locomotive, Electric locomotive.;

Highway (passenger & freight): Public diesel vehicle, Public gasoline vehicle, Private vehicle, Large diesel freighttruck, Large gasoline vehicle, small freight truck.Waterway (passenger & freight): Ocean-going ship, Coastal ship, Inland ship.Aviation (passenger & freight): Freight airplane, passenger airplane.

Tec

hn

olog

y L

ist

ERI, ChinaERI, China

8

Steel production process in China

Coke making Sintering

Iron making Pig Iron

Convertor Open HearthElectric Furnace

DirectReduction

DIOSor

COREX

Recycledsteel

Casting

Heating

Hot Rolling Steel

Heating

Cool Rolling Steel

Continuous Casting

Steel making

9

Unit Energy Use in Steel Making Industry

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

kgce

Large ConvertorContinuous Casting

Large Blast Furnace

Coke Dry Quenching

Coal Powder Injection

TRT

Fluit Gas Recovery DCF COREX

EF

10

Sector Technologies Steel Industry Large size equipment (Coke Oven, Blast furnace, Basic oxygen

furnace ,etc.), Equipment of coke dry quenching, Continuous casting machine, TRT Continuous rolling machine, Equipment of coke oven gas, OH gas and BOF gas recovery , DC-electric arc furnace

Chemical Industry Large size equipment for Chemical Production, Waste Heat Recover System, Ion membrane technology, Existing Technology Improving

Paper Making Co-generation System, facilities of residue heat utilization, Black liquor recovery system, Continuous distillation system

Textile Co-generation System, Shuttleless loom, High Speed Printing and Dyeing

Non-ferrous metal Reverberator furnace, Waste Heat Recover System, QSL for lead and zinc production

Building Materials dry process rotary kiln with pre-calciner, Electric power generator with residue heat, Colburn process, Hoffman kiln, Tunnel kiln

Machinery High speed cutting, Electric-hydraulic hammer, Heat Preservation Furnace

Residential Cooking by gas, Centralized Space Heating System, Energy Saving Electric Appliance, High Efficient Lighting

Service Centralized Space Heating System, Centralized Cooling Heating System, Co-generation System, Energy Saving Electric Appliance, High Efficient Lighting

Transport Diesel truck, Low Energy Use Car, Electric Car, Natural Gas Car, Electric Railway Locomotives

Common Use Technology

High Efficiency Boiler, FCB Technology, High Efficiency Electric Motor Speed Adjustable Motor, Centrifugal Electric Fun, Energy Saving Lighting

Identify efficiency promised technologies

11

ERI: IPAC-AIM/Local model

Bottom-up model for 31 provinces in China 9 sectors More than 500 large point sources Focus on regional development

12

13

ERI: IPAC-AIM/Transport model

Application of IPAC-AIM/technology model for transport

For China, Beijing(extra large city), Taiyuan(large city), and Langfang(small city)

14

IPAC-Emission

Partial equilibrium model Global model:9 regions 3 economic sector: industry, building and transport Energy sources: coal,oil, natural gas, modern bioma

ss, hydro, nuclear, unconventional oil, unconventional gas, wind and solar

Cover all emission source: energy activities, industrial process and land use

Technology description: medium level cover around 40 technologies

Long-term analysis up to 2100 9 gases:CO2 ， CH4 ， NOx, N2O ， CO ， SO2 ，

HFC ， PFC ， SF6)

15

AIM /Em issi on-Rinka ge

S ocio-Eco no mic S cen arios

G H G s Em iss ions

C rop land

P as ture

F ores t

B iom ass F arm

O ther Land

Land Inp ut

GD P Po p u latio n Lifes ty leRes o u rce Bas e

G oods and

Servi ce P ric e

AIM / Clim a te M ode l

AIM / Im pa ct M ode l

B o tto m -up M o d el

B iom ass

Ener gy

D em and

Fee

db

ack

La nd E q uilib rium M o d el

Oth er

In p u ts

G D P

P op ulat ion

G oods &

Servi ce

D em and

G oods &

Servi ce

Sup p ly

Soci al

Ener gy

Effici ency

Endo U se

Ener gy

Effici ency

T echnology

C hange

F ood

C onsum pt ion

P at t ern

Indus t rial

P rocess

C hange

Indus t rial

P roduct ion

Soci al

Ener gyEffici ency

C hange

P rim ary

Ener gy

Sup p ly

Exp loit at ion

T echnology

Ener gy P rice

Ener gy

C onvers ion

T echnology

Effici ency

Ener gy

C onvers ion

T echnology

F inal Ener gySup p ly

F inal Ener gyD em and

End U se

T echnology

End U se

T echnology

Effici ency

Ener gy

Servi ce

D em and

E nerg y-E co no m ic M o d el

G D P

P op ulat ion

Res o u rce

Bas e

Ener gy

R esource

IPAC-Emission

16

ERI: IPAC-SGM

A CGE model dynamic model 22 sectors Energy, economic activities and environment issues Up to 2050 6 gases

17

Module of SGM

AGRICULTURE

agriculture

HOUSEHOLDSdemographics

labor supplyENERGY land supply

oil production household savingsPRIMARY FACTORS gas production final product demands

OF PRODUCTION oil refiningland surface gas refining

subsurface resources coal productionlabor biomass production

capital uranium productionhydro and solar electric power GOVERNMENT

electricity general governmentnational defense

education

OTHER PRODUCTSgoods and services

18

Economy Target of China in 2020

Government Target: Overall wealthy society On the basis of economy structure optimal and

increasing profit, GDP will be four time in 2020 comparing with that in 2000 ， realize fundamental industrialization”；

Take a new way for industry development； “continually increase ability for sustainable

development”；

19

42318

31707 3084528959

26071

12068

5462

769

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Japan Germany America France Singapore Korea The average China

GDP Per Capita

20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

rural area in China

urban area in China

Japan(1993)

America(1995)

North Europe

England(1992)

Canada

Average living area per capita, m2

21

01020304050607080

car

stoc

k fo

r100

pers

ons

Car Ownership

22

Steel output in China

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

19

78

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

10

20

30

20

10

20

30

20

10

oth

er

Year

Mill

ion ton

IPAC-

AI M2000

IPAC-

AI M2003

23

Motor Vehicles Output in China

012345678

1978

1980

1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

199619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

1020

2020

30

Year

Mill

ion

24

Energy Production and Consumption in China

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1952

1965

1978

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

years

mill

ion

TC

E

Production

Consumption

25

Primary Energy Demand Scenarios

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2010 2020 2030

Year

Mtc

e