Michael Melnychuk, Tim Essington, Olaf Jensen, Trevor Branch, Ana Parma, John Pope, Tony Smith, Jason Link, Selina Heppell, Steve Martell Can fisheries

Michael Melnychuk, Tim Essington, Olaf Jensen, Trevor Branch, Ana Parma, John Pope, Tony Smith,

Jason Link, Selina Heppell, Steve Martell

Can fisheries under catch shares

better track management targets ?

Pew Charitable Trusts WebinarNovember 3, 2011

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Num

ber

of c

atch

sha

re f

ishe

ries

Year of catch share implementation

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175South America

South Africa

Europe

U.S. W coast/Alaska

U.S. E coast

Canada W coast

Canada E coast

Australia

New Zealand

0255075

100125150175

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Year of catch share implementation

Year of fishery development

Catch shares → Allocation of quota to individuals such that competition among individuals is reduced

Ŷ Catch shares

Ŷ Partial catch shares

Ŷ Quota only

Ŷ Effort regulations

0 50 100 150

Benthic fishBethopelagic fish

Pelagic fishReef-associated fish

Invertebrates

Number of stocks in analyses

0

30

Alaska, U.S.

0

30

Australia

0

30

60New

Zealand

0

30

East coast Canada

0

30

West coast Canada

0

30

Europe

0

30

SouthAfrica

0

30

South America

0

30

Northeast & mid-Atlantic coast, U.S.

0

30

S. Atlantic coast & Gulf

of Mexico, U.S.

0

30

West coast U.S.

ŶC

atch

sha

res

ŶP

artia

l cat

ch s

hare

s

ŶQ

uota

onl

y

ŶE

ffor

t reg

ulat

ions

050

100

150

Ben

thic

fish

Bet

hope

lagi

c fis

hP

elag

ic fi

shR

eef-

asso

ciat

ed fi

shIn

vert

ebra

tes

Num

ber o

f sto

cks

in a

naly

ses

0

30

Ala

ska,

U

.S.

0

30A

ustr

alia

0

30

60

New

Z

eala

nd

0

30E

ast c

oast

C

anad

a

0

30W

est c

oast

C

anad

a

0

30

Eur

ope

0

30

Sou

thA

fric

a

0

30

Sou

th

Am

eric

a

0

30N

orth

east

&

mid

-Atla

ntic

co

ast,

U.S

.

0

30S

. Atla

ntic

co

ast &

Gul

f of

Mex

ico,

U.S

.

0

30W

est c

oast

U

.S.

2000 – 2004

Do catch share fisheries better track management targets than fisheries not under catch shares ?

targets: annual quota (C/Q)

exploitation rate target (F/Ftarget)

biomass target (B/Btarget)

Hypotheses:

Adherence to targets: catch shares > quota only > effort controls

Strength of response: C/Q > F/Ftarget > B/Btarget

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Target F

F

FF

: F

targ

et

4 metrics:

Mean

SD(target)

Minor exceedance

Major exceedance

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 40

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 705

1015202530

0 1 2 3 405

1015202530

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70

10

20

30

40

0 1 2 3 40

10

20

30

40

0 2 4 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 4

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 2 4 6

05

1015202530

0 1 2 3 4

05

1015202530

0 2 4 6

0

10

20

30

40

0 1 2 3 4

0

10

20

30

40

Summary of response variables

C/Q

n = 259 stocks

F/Ftarget

n = 172

B/Btarget

n = 205

Fre

quen

cy

0 2 4 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 4

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 2 4 6

05

1015202530

0 1 2 3 4

05

1015202530

0 2 4 6

0

10

20

30

40

0 1 2 3 4

0

10

20

30

40

Mean C/Q Mean F/Ftarget Mean B/Btarget

Variables of interest

Catch control type

Other covariates accounted for:

Region

Taxonomic/habitat-

association

Year of fishery

development

Average catch

Lmax

Propensity for being under catch

shares

Responses Predictors

3 ratios with management targets:

Catch/quota

F/Ftarget

B/Btarget

4 metrics:

Mean

SD(target)

Minor exceedance

Major exceedance

X

-6 -4 -2 0-6 -4 -2 0-3 -2 -1 0-3 -2 -1 0

Catch sharesPartial catch shares

Quota only

Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score

Mean C/Q SD(target C/Q)Small overages

(10%)Large overages

(25%)

Mean C/Q SD(target C/Q) Minor (10%) overages

Major (25%) overages

C/Q analysis


Quota only * *

-6 -4 -2 0-6 -4 -2 0-3 -2 -1 0-3 -2 -1 0


Quota only

Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score


(10%)Large overages

(25%)

Coefficient estimate

-3 -2 -1 0 1-3 -2 -1 0 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5


Quota onlyEffort control

Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score

Mean F/Fref SD(target F/Fref)Minor overfishing

(10%)Major overfishing

(50%)


Quota onlyEffort regulations

Mean F/Ftarget SD(target F/Ftarget)Minor (10%)

over-exploitationMajor (50%)

over-exploitation

-5 -3 -1 1-5 -3 -1 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score

Mean F/FreferenceSD(target F/Freference)

Minor overfishing (10%)

Major overfishing (50%)

*

-3 -2 -1 0 1-3 -2 -1 0 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score



(50%)

-3 -2 -1 0 1-3 -2 -1 0 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score



(50%)

F/Ftarget analysis


-3 -2 -1 0 1-3 -2 -1 0 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score

Mean B/Bref SD(target B/Bref)Minor depletion

(10%)Major depletion

(50%)



Mean B/Btarget SD(target B/Btarget)Minor (10%)

depletionMajor (50%)

depletion

-3 -2 -1 0 1-3 -2 -1 0 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score



(50%)


B/Btarget analysis

Summary

• Compared to non-catch shares, catch share fisheries had:

• less variability in C/Q

• less frequent (major) overfishing

• Effects of both quota management and catch shares

• Catch shares are one of many possible tools that can be used to help meet

management objectives

• Next step: what particular aspects of catch share systems tend to lead

to the outcomes we’ve observed ?

Thank you:

Data collection: Kate Stanton, Rachel Finley, Jordan Watson

Funding: Lenfest Ocean Program

RAM Legacy database: Dan Ricard and all contributors

Interviews: U.S. – Alaska: J. DiCosimo, J. Heltzel, M. Fina, S. Hare, S. Kelley, J. Regnart; U.S. – W Coast: J. DeVore, M. Burner, C. Niles, I. Stewart; U.S. – NE/Mid-Atl. Coast: C. Legault, T. Chute, D. Hart, J. Idoine, G. Shepherd, B. Beal, N. Meserve, K. Taylor, B. Spear, D. Boelke, T. Hoff, K. West, J. McNamee; U.S. – SE Coast/G. Mexico: J. McGovern, P. Hood, A. Strelcheck, S. Gerhart, J. Kimmel, J. Smith; Canada – W Coast: A. Keizer, B. Ackerman, W. Li Ou, P. Ridings, J. Rogers, J. Schweigert, E. Wylie, M. James; Canada – E Coast: P. Cahill, V. Docherty, J. Hansen, D. Coffin, M. Baker, D. Ball, H. Bishop, J. Buie, S. Campana, G. Chouinard, J. Conlin, P. Couillard, A. Frechet, J. Gaudette, C. Hendry, P. Koeller, M. LeCouffre, L. Legere, D. Lemelin, B. Lester, C. MacDonald, B. Morin, M. Moriyasu, D. Pezzack, D. Roddick, A. Rumbolt, T. Siferd, J. Simon, S. Smith, G. Stevens, H. Stone, C. Waters, R. Federizon; Europe: J. Sigurjónsson, J. Horwood, B. Deas, A. LeGarrec, C. Olesen, M. Anderson, M. Welvaert, G. van Balsfoort, P. Breckling, N. Holdsworth; Australia: C. Dichmont, N. Klaer, G. Tuck, S. Wayte, S. Auld, S. Gaddes, S. Koh, S. Weekes, B. Taylor, K. Crosthwaite, T. Ward, C. Gardner; New Zealand: D. Foster, D. Sykes, G. Clement; Argentina: J. Hansen, A. Giussi, M. Renzi; South Africa: A. Brandao, D. Butterworth, S. Halloway, S. Johnston, C. de Moor, R. Rademeyer, G. Maharaj, R. Bross, A. Badenhorst.

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

0

10

20

30

40

0

1

2

3Catch shares

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

0

10

20

30

40

0

1

2

3Partial catch shares

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

0

10

20

30

40

0

1

2

3Quota only

0 1 2 3

0

10

20

30

40

0

2

4

6

8Catch shares

0 1 2 3

0

10

20

30

40

0

2

4

6


0 1 2 3

0

10

20

30

40

0

2

4

6

8Quota only

▬ Alaska, U.S.

▬ West coast, U.S.

▬ West coast, Canada

▬ East coast, Canada

▬ Europe

▬ Australia

▬ New Zealand

▬ Other

Probability density

Mean C/Q SD(target C/Q)

Catch/quota ratios

n = 130

n = 41

n = 88

▬ F

requ

ency

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Catch shares

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Partial catch shares

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Quota only

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Effort control

0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5Catch shares

0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5Quota only

0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5Effort control

▬ Alaska, U.S.


▬ NE & mid-Atl., U.S

▬ Europe

▬ New Zealand

▬ Other

Probability density

Mean F/Ftarget SD(target F/Ftarget)

0 2 4 60246810

12

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Catch shares

0 2 4 60246810

12

0.0

0.5

1.0


0 2 4 60246810

12

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Quota only

0 2 4 60246810

12

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Effort control

0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Catch shares

0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0


0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Quota only

0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Effort control

F/Ftarget ratiosn = 54

n = 24

n = 67

n = 27

▬ F

requ

ency

▬ Alaska, U.S.


▬ West coast, Canada

▬ NE & mid-Atl., U.S.

▬ Europe

▬ Australia

▬ New Zealand

▬ Other

▬ F

requ

ency

Probability density

Mean B/Btarget SD(target B/Btarget)

B/Btarget ratios

0 1 2 3 4

02468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Catch shares

0 1 2 3 4

02468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0


0 1 2 3 4

02468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Quota only

0 1 2 3 4

02468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Effort control

0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Catch shares

0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

0

1


0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Quota only

0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Effort control

0 1 2 3 4

02468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Catch shares

0 1 2 3 4

02468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0


0 1 2 3 4

02468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Quota only

0 1 2 3 4

02468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Effort control

0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Catch shares

0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

0

1


0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Quota only

0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Effort control

0 1 2 3 4

02468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Catch shares

0 1 2 3 4

02468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0


0 1 2 3 4

02468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Quota only

0 1 2 3 4

02468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Effort control

0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Catch shares

0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

0

1


0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Quota only

0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Effort control

0 1 2 3 4

02468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Catch shares

0 1 2 3 4

02468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0


0 1 2 3 4

02468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Quota only

0 1 2 3 4

02468

1012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Effort control

0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Catch shares

0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

0

1


0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Quota only

0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

0

1

2Effort control

n = 67

n = 28

n = 82

n = 28

Catch share propensity scores

• Controls for non-random application of catch share “treatments”

• Logistic regression:

CS ~ Region + Habitat + avCatch + devYear + Lmax

• Use estimated coefficients to predict probability of each fishery

being under full catch shares during 2000–2004

• Use propensity scores as covariates in subsequent analyses

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

Canada-West coastAustralia

New ZealandSouth Africa

Canada-East coastSouth America

EuropeU.S.-Alaska

U.S.-NE/mid-Atl. U.S.-West coast

U.S.-S. Atl. /G. Mex

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

Benthopelagic fishInvertebrates

Benthic fishPelagic fish

Reef-associated fish

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

Catch shares

Partial catch shares

Quota only

Effort control

Catch share propensity scores

Average propensity score

Region

Habitat

Catch control

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 5 10 15

Pro

pe

nsi

ty s

core

ln(average catch during 2000-2004)

Alaska

US W coast

Can W coast

Can E coast

US NE coast

US SE /GoMex

Europe

S. Africa

S. America

Australia

New Zealand

Propensity score matching

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 5 10 15

Pro

pens

ity s

core

ln(average catch during 2000-2004)

Can W coast

Australia

New Zealand

S Africa

Can E coast

S America

Europe

Alaska

US NE coast

US W coast

US SE /GoMex

● Actual full CS

X Actual non-CS

-1 -0.5 0 0.5

Propensity score matching

Mean C/QSD(target C/Q)

Minor (10%) overagesMajor (25%) overages

Mean F/Ftarget

SD(target F/Ftarget)Minor (10%) overfishingMajor (50%) overfishing

Mean B/Btarget

SD(target B/Btarget)Minor (10%) depletionMajor (50%) depletion

-1 0 1

Mean C/QSD(target C/Q)

P(C/Q > 1.1)P(C/Q > 1.25)

Mean F/FMSYSD(target F/FMSY)

P(F/FMSY > 1.1)P(F/FMSY > 1.5)

Mean B/BMSYSD(target B/BMSY)

P(B/BMSY > 1.1)P(B/BMSY > 1.5)

2.5th %ile 97.5th %ile

Grand mean of:

ResponseCS – ResponseNon-CS

Mean difference of response variable

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91

Proportion of stocks in

some undesirable state P

roba

bilit

y of

exc

eeda

nce

C/Q

F/Ftarget

B/Btarget

(OK) (Bad)

Ŷ Catch shares

Ŷ Partial catch shares

Ŷ Quota only

Ŷ Effort regulations

0 50 100 150

Benthic fishBethopelagic fish


Invertebrates

Number of stocks in analyses

0

30

Alaska, U.S.

0

30

Australia

0

30

60New

Zealand

0

30

East coast Canada

0

30

West coast Canada

0

30

Europe

0

30

SouthAfrica

0

30

South America

0

30

Northeast & mid-Atlantic coast, U.S.

0

30

S. Atlantic coast & Gulf

of Mexico, U.S.

0

30

West coast U.S.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2

Pro

bability o

f exceedance

'OK' 'Bad'F/Freference

-6 -4 -2 0-6 -4 -2 0-3 -2 -1 0-3 -2 -1 0


Quota only

Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score


(10%)Large overages

(25%)Mean C/Q SD(target C/Q)Minor (10%)

overagesMajor (25%)

overages

Fixed effect

coefficients(full model)

C/Q


Quota only

Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5

Alaska, U.S.West coast U.S.

West coast CanadaEast coast Canada

EuropeSouth Africa

AustraliaNew Zealand

Other

Benthic fishBenthopelagic fish


Invertebrates

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5


West coast CanadaEast coast Canada

EuropeSouth Africa

AustraliaNew Zealand

Other



Invertebrates

Random effect

conditional modes

* *

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5


West coast CanadaNE & mid-Atl., U.S.

EuropeNew Zealand

Other



Invertebrates

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5


West coast CanadaNE & mid-Atl., U.S.

EuropeNew Zealand

Other



Invertebrates

-3 -2 -1 0 1-3 -2 -1 0 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score



(50%)

F/Ftarget



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score

Mean F/Ftarget SD(target F/Ftarget)Minor (10%)

over-exploitationMajor (50%)

over-exploitation

Fixed effect


Random effect

conditional modes

-5 -3 -1 1-5 -3 -1 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score

Mean F/FreferenceSD(target F/Freference)

Minor overfishing (10%)

Major overfishing (50%)

-3 -2 -1 0 1-3 -2 -1 0 1-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score



(50%)

B/Btarget



Average catch

Development year

Lmax

Propensity score

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5


West coast CanadaEast coast CanadaNE & mid-Atl., U.S.

EuropeAustralia

New ZealandOther



Invertebrates

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2-3 -2 -1 0 1 2-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5


West coast CanadaEast coast CanadaNE & mid-Atl., U.S.

EuropeAustralia

New ZealandOther



Invertebrates

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5

Mean B/Btarget SD(target B/Btarget)Minor (10%)

depletionMajor (50%)

depletion

Fixed effect


Random effect

conditional modes

Filters applied

• Excluded oceanic sharks/tunas

• Excluded rarely targeted stocks

• Excluded stocks with catch shares or TACs established during 2000-2004

• Excluded stocks with missing time series data or reference points

• Excluded stocks whose assessments were not trustworthy (F, B only)

• Excluded stocks with >50% landings in recreational sector

• Excluded fisheries under moratorium 2000-2004 (C/Q, F only)

Sensitivity tests

• Removed propensity score covariate

• Excluded stocks whose Ftarget or Btarget reference points were estimated with Schaefer model

• Excluded ICES/NAFO-managed stocks

• Excluded stocks with C/Q < 0.5

• Excluded stocks under moratorium (biomass analyses)

• Considered only full catch share and quota-only categories

big reduction in sample

size

C/Q F/Ftarget B/Btarget

Catch shares 130 54 67

Partial catch shares 41 24 28

Quota only 88 67 82

Effort regulations ─ 27 28

Total 259 172 205

Number of stocks included in analyses after filtering

Mixed-effects model analysis

Y ~ (CControl + PS) + avCatch + devYear + Lmax + Region + Habitat

Y ~ (CControl + PS) + devYear + Lmax + Region + Habitat

Y ~ (CControl + PS) + avCatch + devYear + Region + Habitat

Y ~ (CControl + PS) + avCatch + Lmax + Region + Habitat

Y ~ (CControl + PS) + Region + Habitat

Y ~ Intercept + avCatch + devYear + Lmax + Region + Habitat

Y ~ Intercept + devYear + Lmax + Region + Habitat

Y ~ Intercept + avCatch + devYear + Region + Habitat

Y ~ Intercept + avCatch + Lmax + Region + Habitat

Y ~ Intercept + Region + Habitat

Catch control

included

Catch control

not included

Type of response variable :

Metric for each response variable :

Current catch to current quota

(C/Q)

Current exploitation rate to target

exploitation rate(F/Ftarget)

Current biomass to target biomass

(B/Btarget)

5-year meane.g. mean C/Q

Standard deviation around targete.g. SD(target C/Q)

Exceedance of minor undesirable thresholde.g. P(C/Q > 1.1)

Exceedance of major undesirable thresholde.g. P(C/Q > 1.25)

Documents

Michael Melnychuk, Tim Essington, Olaf Jensen, Trevor Branch, Ana Parma, John Pope, Tony Smith, Jason Link, Selina Heppell, Steve Martell Can fisheries