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Migration, Post-2015 Development Goals, And the KNOMAD
Dilip RathaWorld Bank
New YorkJanuary 24, 2013
Outline
Migration and development
Migration and development goals
KNOMAD
South-South migration is larger than migration from developing countries to OECD countries
South44%
High-income non-OECD
14%
High-income OECD42%
Note: South = Developing countries
Source: Migration and Remittances Factbook 2011
Destination of migrants from the South
There were more than 215 million migrants worldwide in 2010.
Migration affects development
Skills
Investments
Remittances
19911993
19951997
19992001
20032005
20072009
2011e2013f
2015f0
100
200
300
400
500
600$ billions
Remittances to developing countries estimated to reach $406 bn in 2012
Source: Development Prospects Group, World Bank
India
China
Philippin
es
Mex
ico
Niger
ia
Egypt
Pakis
tan
Bangla
desh
Vietn
am
Leban
on
70 66
24 24 21 1814 14
9 7
Top remittance recipients in 2012
$ million, 2012e as % of GDP, 2011
Tajik
ista
n
Liber
ia
Kyrgyz
Rep
ublic
Lesoth
o
Mold
ova
Nepal
Samoa
Haiti
Leban
on
Kosovo
47
31 2927
23 22 21 2118 18
Remittances have reduced poverty in Nepal
23
42
32 31
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
% of householdreceiving remittances
Poverty headcount rate%
1995/6
2003/4
Source: World Bank, DFID, ADB Study 2006, Glinskaya and others 2006
Remittances helped reduce poverty in Sri Lanka
0 0 1
1620
83 5
-1
-7
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
% of Sri Lankan households that moved up to a higher income decile after receiving remittances, 1999-2000*
Income Decile
Source: De and Ratha (2012)
Remittances tend to rise following crisis, natural disaster, or conflict
Remittances as % of private consumption
0.5
1.7
1.21.4
2.0 2.0
1.0
1.8
2.0
Indonesia Thailand Mexico
year before
year of crisis
year after
Note: Crisis refers to Asian financial crisis in 1997-98
Significant share of remittances spent on human capital and physical capital investments varies by level of development
Percent of remittances from outside Africa
30 37 43 47
67
51 3533 26
14
1927 24 27
19
Kenya Nigeria Uganda BurkinaFaso
Senegal
Other uses
Housing, land &businessinvestmentsFood, education &health
* Uganda excludes unspecified use of remittances (2/5 th of total remittances)Source: Africa migration project household surveys; GLSS 2005-06
Migration associated with higher educational attainment
Migration associated with access to banking
Remittances improve country creditworthiness External debt as share of exports and remittances
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800% Including remittances
Excluding remittancesExternal debt as % of exports
Downside of Remittances and Migration
Large remittance flows may lead to currency appreciation
Remittances may create dependency
Remittance channels may be misused for money laundering and financing of terror
Social impact on family left behind
Competition in job markets
Impact on culture and identity in destination communities
Migration pressures will grow in future because of demographic changes, and income gaps
Projected Change in Labor Force, 2005–50 (millions), ages 15-64
Sub-Saharan Africa 699Middle-East & N. Africa 187East and South Asia 727
Western Europe -88North America -12Eastern Europe & Central Asia -26
Source: Koettl (2010); Shaping the Future : A Long-Term Perspective of People and Job Mobility for the Middle East and North Africa (World Bank 2008)
High-skilled migration is larger in poor countries which already suffer from low skill levels
But migration can augment skill levels in developing countries through brain gain, skill and technology transfers, and return migration
Middle Income Low Income0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Share of the Tertiary Educated in the Labor Force
Migration Rate among the Tertiary Educated
Cost of remittances can be reduced
$23.1
$17.9$17.0
$15.1$14.5
$13.1
Source: World Bank Remittances Prices Worldwide database (January 2011)
Average cost of sending $200 to developing regions
*EAP excludes Pacific Islands
Post offices and mobile phone companies can play a major role in expanding access to the poorest, but need to avoid exclusive partnerships (both in source and destination countries)
The wealth of the diaspora can be mobilized through diaspora bonds
Diaspora size(millions)
Estimated savings($ billions, 2009)
Developing countries 161.5 397.5
East Asia & Pacific 21.7 83.9
Europe & Central Asia 43.0 72.9
Latin America & Caribbean 30.2 116.0
Middle East & North Africa 18.0 41.2
Sub-Saharan Africa 21.8 30.4
South Asia 26.7 53.2
Source: Ratha and Mohapatra 2011.
Also remittances can be used as collateral to raise bond financing for development projects
Development also affects migration
Interactions between migration and development are complex, and multi-dimensional
Policy implications1. The international remittances agenda
2. Know your migrants/diaspora
3. Help potential migrants acquire globally marketable skills
4. Point-based systems can produce adverse effects on developing countries – Labor markets
5. But ethical recruitment policies may be ineffective, and unethical
6. Improve transparency in recruitment of migrants
7. Border control policies should be revisited
8. Migration is not a substitute for job creation at home
New Idea:Diaspora bonds for funding medical training
50 diaspora students, attrition rate 10 1st yr, 5 afterward
Tuition $30K per year, for 4 years;
25 local students trained free
Revenue per year: $4.65 mn
Cost of training: $2.32 mn
Cash flow: $2.33 mn
At 5% coupon this could support debt of $46 mn into perpetuity
Source: Ketkar and Ratha (2011)
New Idea:Leveraging remittances for the global fight against malaria
Migration must feature in post 2015 development goals
Migration affects development; and development
affects migration.
Migrants, like those in the informal sector, should be
included in MDG discussions
And development goals should not always be
country-specific
Migration must feature in post 2015 development goals
Channels: Remittances, Skills, Investments
Targets: Cost of remittances; Cost of migration;
Amount of financing
Principles: “Treat your immigrant the way you want
your migrants to be treated every where”;
“Every one should have basic human rights, at home
and abroad”
Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD)
Rationale for KNOMAD
Vast knowledge not always accessible to policy makers
Knowledge spread out over many disciplines
There are information and knowledge gaps in many key areas of migration and development
KNOMAD
Open, inclusive, multidisciplinary knowledge partnership
To generate a menu of policy choices, based on analytical evidence and quality control through peer-review
A global public good that is also a learning process
Structure Twelve thematic working groups supported by a small
secretariat
Advisory committee
Contractual as well as voluntary contributions
Multi-donor trust fund at the World Bank
KNOMAD THEMATIC WORKING GROUPS
Data
High-skilled labor
migration
Lower-skilled labor migration
Integration issues in host communities
Policy and institution
al coherence
Migrant rights and
social aspects
Demography and
migration
Remittances
Mobilizing other
diaspora resources
Environmental change and migration
Internal migration
Migration and
security
Thematic Working Groups1. Data
2. High-skilled labor migration
3. Low-killed labor migration
4. Integration issues in host communities
5. Policy and institutional coherence
6. Migration, security and development
7. Migrant rights and social aspects of migration
8. Demography and migration
9. Remittances, incl. access to finance and capital markets
10. Mobilizing diaspora resources
11. Environmental change and migration
12. Internal migration and urbanization
Cross-cutting themes
Monitoring and Impact Evaluation
Capacity Building
Gender
Public perception and communication?
Partnerships
International and regional agencies
Universities and research institutions
Think tanks
International Initiatives
Networks
Civil Society
Outputs
• A menu of policy choices
• Analytical research products
• Policy briefs
• Operational toolkits, fact books
• Web-based anthologies, archives, blogs
• Few pilot projects and capacity building activities
Time line
Inception phase (ending March 2013)
Implementation phase (April 2013-Dec 2017)
Evaluation – 2016
Pilot projects – 2016-17
Exit
How might KNOMAD contribute to the
Post-2015 development agenda?
Data and other resources are available at
www.worldbank.org/migration
www.knomad.org