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Complexity and ResilienceVictor GalazStockholm Resilience
CentreStockholm University
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How should wegovern ourselves in
an era of rapid globalchange?
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Resilience
capacity to deal with change,stress and shocks, andcontinue to
develop
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Adaptation
Bounce back
Innovation
Transformation
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IndividualPrivate companyInternational organizationLocal
community
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Thresholds and Tipping Points
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Cascades
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Land use change (deforestation, urban sprawl)
Rapid urbanization
Infrastructural development
(irrigation systems, creation of new urban habitats) Eroded
health infrastructure in the 1980s and 1990s
Quick fix solutions create more resistant vectors
Climatic factors (El Nino Oscillation trigger larger
outbreaks)
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Dengue epidemic in Brazil, 2007-2008
1. Fast evolving surprise with the ability to create acrisis
that cascades across system boundaries,and spatial scales2. Complex
and multilevel underlying drivers3. Recombination potential with
additionalstresses, such as poverty, eroded healthinfrastructure,
creates the possibility of anescalation of the crisis.
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A New Generation of Ecological Crises?
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Global changes in the politicallandscape
Decentralization
One of the most important global policy experiments
Decentralization can lead to more efcient governance,better link
to local context -> higher capacity to deal withcomplex
problems
Forest co-management, water management, ecosystemmanagement,
development projects, etc.
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Public-Private Partnerships
Formalized collaboration between state actors and private/
non-state actors
Expectation: more exible and efcient way to reachpolitical
aims.
Not privatization not state controlled
Water, health, biodiversity conservation, etc.
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Non-Governmental Organizations
Increased number and participation of NGOs, think-tanks,
epistemic communitiesat all political levels.
Biodiversity, climate policy, sheries policy,m.m.
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International agreements
Increased inuence of multilateralagreements on national
policy
e.g. Kyoto-protocol, EU:s Framework Directives, Convention on
BiologicalDiversity, World Trade Organization, etc
1960: 20 , 1990: 140, 2005: more than 700
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Centralized decision-making
Central policy-maker (e.g. environmentalministry)
Regional or local state authorities
Local natural resource users
Decision-making
Implementation and monitoring
Behavioral response
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Decision-making in complexgovernance systems
Central policy-maker (e.g. environmental ministry)
Regional or local state authorities
Local natural resource users
Decision-making,implementation,negotiations,partnerships
Implementation, monitoring,negotiations, partnerships
International norms, agreements
Decentralization
Non-state actors
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Global Environmental Change
+ Global Political Change Are they compatible?
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Good Governance according tothe World Bank:
Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of
Violence/Terrorism, Government
Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law,and Control of
Corruption .
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Does good governancelead to better protection of
ecosystems?
Voice and Accountability, PoliticalStability and Absence of
Violence/
Terrorism, Government Effectiveness,Regulatory Quality, Rule of
Law, and
Control of Corruption .
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Forest Cover Change
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Biodiversity (bird population)
High levels of corruption Low levels of corruption
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?
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Diversity
Enhances our capacity to deal with withuncertainty and
change.Elinor Ostrom: no blue-prints forecosystem management.Folke:
helps us recover and innovate.
Portfolio of options to deal with change.
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Mbius strip
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Too Good tobe True?
High ReliabilityOrganizations -organizations with
the capacity tocope with bothincrementalchange
andcatastrophicsurprises.
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Capacity to collect and analyze very largeamounts of
information, detect early
warning signals, and facilitate fastcoordination of large number
of actors.
Decision-making dependent on thetype of change in
environment.
High capacity for learning after crises, strongincentives to
report and take initiatives torepair mistakes and cope with
surprises.
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Possible for large-scaleorganizations? Severe
global changechallenges? How?
Where?
