Millennium Development Goals Employment Indicators

Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends

Millennium Development GoalsEmployment Indicators

Theo Sparreboom

Employment TrendsInternational Labour Organization

Geneva, Switzerland

AstanaOctober 2009


MDG Employment IndicatorsOverview

Background

Employment indicators

Global and regional estimates and trends

Monitoring national labour markets


Following the 2005 World Summit, and the work of the Commission for Social Development as well as the Inter-Agency and Expert Group on MDG indicators, a new target has been included under MDG1 (Target 1b):

Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including for women and young people

MDG Employment IndicatorsBackground

The new target is monitored using four new employment indicators, which are additional to the existing indicator under MDG3 on gender equality.


MDG Employment IndicatorsBackground

• All five employment indicators (under MDG1b and MDG3) are explained in detail in the Guide to the new Millennium Development Goals Employment Indicators, which is available at:

http://www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/docu/index.htm

• The Guide includes definitions, data sources, calculations and analytical examples.

• The Guide also includes the full set of Decent Work Indicators, which allows for comprehensive monitoring of decent work.


MDG1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, Target B (‘decent work’)

Employment-to-population ratios for persons aged 15+ and youth (15-24) by sex

Vulnerable employment rate by sex

Working poverty rate

Labour productivity growth rate

MDG Employment Indicators

MDG3 Promote gender equality and empower women

Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector


Employment-to-population ratios for persons aged 15+ and youth (15-24) by sex

The EPR measures the proportion of a country’s working age population that is employed

EPR= Total employment/working age population * 100%

Source of data: labour force survey or other household survey/population census with data on population and employment

MDG1B indicators Employment-to-population ratio


There is no single ‘correct’ employment-to-population ratio, but national EPRs are typically between 50-75 per cent

Careful analysis of EPRs can be used to identify labour market issues such as low incomes, inadequate social security or gender imbalances. Analysis should cover comparisons of EPRs between labour market groups defined by sex or age, international comparisons, comparisons over time, etc.

Analysis of labour market issues often necessitates investigation of additional indicators, e.g. vulnerable employment rates, unemployment rates, or enrolment rates in education.




Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, July 2009

50.0

51.0

52.0

53.0

54.0

55.0

56.0

57.0

58.0

59.0

60.0

61.0

62.0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

(%)

World Developed Economies & European UnionCentral & South Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS

Employment-to-population ratio, selected regions, 1991-2008



40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(%)

Both sexes Male Female



Employment-to-population ratio, CSEE & CIS, 1991-2008, by sex


Vulnerable employment rate for persons aged 15+ by sex

The vulnerable employment rate is a measure of the more vulnerable statuses of employment, namely own account workers and contributing family workers

Vulnerable employment rate = (number of own-account workers + number of contributing family workers)/total employment * 100%

The rate is typically related to level of GDP per capita

Source of data: labour force survey or other household surveys with data on status in employment

MDG1B indicators Vulnerable employment rate



Source: ILO, Key Indicators of the Labour Market, 5 th ed., 2007

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

%

Vulnerable employment rate, selected countries ranked by GDP per capita




1,300,000

1,350,000

1,400,000

1,450,000

1,500,000

1,550,000

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Vul

nera

ble

empl

oym

ent (

mill

ions

)

48.0

49.0

50.0

51.0

52.0

53.0

54.0

Share of vulnerable em

ployment (%

)

Global vulnerable employment

Global vulnerable employment as share of total employment

Global vulnerable employment rate, 1997-2007


Working poverty rate for persons aged 15+

The working poor are defined as employed persons living in a household whose members are estimated to be below the nationally-defined poverty line

Working poverty rate = working poor/total employment* 100%

Source of data: household surveys with both employment and income & expenditure data; if data on employment and poverty come from different sources, an approximation may be used to arrive at the working poverty rate (see the Guide to the new Millennium Development Goals Employment Indicators)

MDG1B indicators Working poverty rate


MDG1B indicators Working poverty rate

Working poverty US$ 1.25, by region, 1997 and 2007


0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Central &South

EasternEurope

(non-EU) &CIS

East Asia South EastAsia & the

Pacific

South Asia LatinAmerica &

theCaribbean

Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan

Africa

%

1997 2007


Labour productivity represents the amount of output achieved per unit of labour input

Labour productivity = GDP [measured at constant market prices in national currency]/ total employment

Labour productivity growth rate is measured as the annual change in GDP per person employed

Labour productivity can be used to assess to which extent the economic environment allows for the creation of decent employment opportunities

Source of data: labour force survey or other household survey/population census with data on employment, in combination with data from national accounts

MDG1B indicators Growth rate of labour productivity


MDG1B indicators Growth rate of labour productivity


2.1

1.3

5.1

7.8

3.3

4.9

1.1

1.8

1.4

2.4

0

7,500

15,000

22,500

30,000

37,500

45,000

52,500

60,000

67,500

75,000

World DevelopedEconomies

&European

Union

Central &South

EasternEurope

(non-EU) &CIS

East Asia South EastAsia & the

Pacific

South Asia LatinAmerica &

theCaribbean

Middle East NorthAfrica

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Pro

du

ctiv

ity

leve

l (c

on

sta

nt

200

5 P

PP

US

$)

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

Pro

du

ctivity g

row

th ra

te (%

)

Productivity level, constant 2005 PPP$ Productivity growth rate, 2000-2008


MDG Employment IndicatorsGlobal & regional estimates and trends

• More detailed analysis is provided in Global Employment Trends reports and updates, which include additional indicators, available at:http://www.ilo.org/trends

• Global Employment Trends reports and updates are based on country information, in particular information from labour force surveys stored in international repositories (ILO, OECD, etc.)

• In addition, (benchmark) data on population (UN), labour force (ILO), GDP (IMF and World Bank), and poverty (World Bank) is used.


MDG Employment IndicatorsGlobal & regional estimates and trends

• The series of Global Employment Trends uses econometric models to address the issue of missing values at the country level

• The main purpose of the models is to generate regional estimates in the absence of a complete set of country data on employment, unemployment and working poverty

• The models are also used to generate short term projections (scenarios) at the regional and global level, based on a set of specific assumptions


Global & regional estimates and trendsLabour market scenarios for 2009

Global employment-to-population rate, 2000- 2009

59.3

60.3

59.759.9

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Empl

oym

ent (

mill

ions

)

58.0

58.5

59.0

59.5

60.0

60.5

61.0

61.5

62.0

Employm

ent -to-population ratio (%)

Scenario 1 Employment



Scenario 1 Employment rate





Employment-to-population rate in CSEE&CIS, 2000- 2009

51.6

53.0

52.2

52.3

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Empl

oym

ent (

mill

ions

)

51

51.5

52

52.5

53

53.5

Employm

ent-to-population ratio (%)








11.5

9.0

10.5

10.3

2

6

10

14

18

22

26

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Une

mpl

oym

ent (

mill

ions

)

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

Unem

ployment rate (%

)

Scenario 3 Unemployment



Scenario 1 Unemployment rate




Unemployment rate in CSEE&CIS, 2000- 2009


19.2

25.5

21.3

17.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Vuln

erab

le e

mpl

oym

ent (

mill

ions

)

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

30.0

Vulnerable employm

ent rate (%)

Scenario 3 Vulnerable employment



Scenario 1 Vulnerable employment rate




Vulnerable employment rate in CSEE&CIS, 2000- 2009


MDG Employment IndicatorsMonitoring national labour markets

• Key Indicators of the Labour Market, 6th edition, contains a broader set of employment indicators, with an analysis of recent trends for each indicator.

• Indicators on the volume of employment, including labour force participation and employment-to-population rates, hours of work, underemployment, part-time employment• Employment by status and sector• Educational attainment• Wage and earning indices• Labour productivity

• The KILM also includes a section with country examples of analysis of the MDG employment indicators, and their linkages with other indicators.


KILM 2009 Chapter 1c. MDG Employment Indicators – Analysis of five MDG employment indicators for Ukraine:

• Regional comparisons

• Linkages between indicators (e.g. productivity, wages and poverty)

• Many possibilities for additional disaggregations (e.g. by geographical area, age, sex, etc.)

• Scope for deeper analysis using other employment indicators (e.g. employment by sector) and other indicators (set of decent work indicators, e.g. wage developments, poverty)

MDG Employment IndicatorsMonitoring national labour markets


Thank you!

Documents

Millennium Development Goals Employment Indicators